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Goldman Is Confused: If The Economy Is Recovering, Then How Is This Possible
Following last week's news that household formation jumped and was revised higher, the logical consequence is that young Americans living in their parents' basement must finally be moving out.
They are not.
In fact, as the chart below from Goldman shows, Millennials are doing anything but moving out, a development that has left Goldman's economists stumped.
Below is a chart showing that the share of young people (18-34) living with parents has held steady over the last half year, and close to the highest since the financial crisis.
This is how Goldman frames its confusion:
"The share of young people living with their parents--which rose sharply during the recession and its aftermath--finally began to decline in 2014. But over the last six months, this decline seems to have stalled."
But the economy is recovering, jobs are plenty, credit is available to all. How can this be???
Unless... it is all baseless propaganda meant simply to inspire confidence in rigged data.
Unpossible, right? Well, even Goldman is no longer so sure:
We find that the share of young people living with their parents has increased relative to pre-recession rates for all labor force status groups, not just the unemployed and underemployed. Overall, above-average youth underemployment rates alone account for about one-third of the increase in the share of young people living with their parents, and lagged effects of the recession probably account for a bit more.
Goldman tries to explain this counterintuitive... assuming the "intuitive" is that the economy is recovering.
To what extent do current labor market conditions explain the elevated rate of young people living with their parents? To answer this question, we use the CPS micro data to calculate the share of 18-34 year olds living with their parents by labor market status (employed, voluntary part-time, involuntary part-time, unemployed, and not in the labor force). Because the data are noisy and not seasonally adjusted, we use the 12-month average ending June 2015 and then compare with the 2007 average. Our first finding, shown [below] is that the percentage living with parents is higher across all labor force status classifications. Even among the employed, the share of young people living with their parents remains about 2pp higher than in 2007.
The Share of Young People Living with Parents Has Risen for All Labor Force Status Groups
And then another nail in the "economy is recovering" coffin:
What accounts for the rest? Part of the explanation is likely that the legacy of the recession wears off only gradually, and looking at current employment status therefore understates the degree to which this is ultimately a labor market problem. Indeed, using a panel of state-level data constructed from the CPS, we find that the effect of unemployment shocks on the share of young people living with their parents dissipates slowly. Why might this be? While moving into a rental unit usually presents a lower hurdle than becoming a homeowner, young people who now have jobs but struggled in recent years might not have enough savings to cover an initial deposit or might fall short of landlords' expectations for a potential tenant's credit score, savings, or income history.
Three other factors might also have played a role. First, researchers at the New York Fed and the Fed Board have found evidence that rising student debt and poor credit scores have contributed to the elevated share of young people living with their parents. Second, the median age at first marriage has increased at a faster than usual rate since 2007 (1.8 years for men and 1.4 years for women). While economic conditions might have played a role, we have found evidence that marriage rates are an important determinant of headship rates. Third, as Exhibit 4 shows, rent-to-income ratios are at historic highs, especially for young people. The future trajectory of these three factors is less clear, suggesting that the share of 18-34 year-olds living at home might not fully return to pre-recession rates.
Rent-to-Income Ratios Are Quite High, Especially for Young People
It's not just Goldman that can't wrap its head around this most fundamental refutation that contrary to the propaganda, there is no recovery for the biggest, and most important, US generation currently alive. Here is more from USA Today:
Despite continued signs of economic recovery, a growing number of Millennials are moving back in with Mom and Dad.
The percentage of Millennials living with their parents increased from 24% in 2010 to 26% in the first third of 2015, according to a Pew Research Center report, which is based on Census data. The study, which was released last week, compared figures to 2010 because it was the beginning of the economic recovery and one of the worst years for the labor market, said Richard Fry, senior economist at Pew. This is despite a lower unemployment rate. In 2010, that rate was 12.4%; it has fallen to 7.7% so far in 2015, according to Pew.
Roughly the same number of Millennials — 25 million — head their own households today since before the recession in 2007, said the report.
The data are bad news for the housing industry, which is looking for a boost from young, first-time buyers.
"The pattern of household formation has become unglued from the job market," Fry says. "This is concerning because ... there’s a lot of spending that goes with setting up households. Young adults are not establishing more households, and that's proving to be one of the drags on the housing recovery and the larger economy."
To summarize: a terrible labor market for the young generation as a result of "sticky" elderly workers who can't fall back on interest from their savings thanks to the Fed's ZIRP policy and are thus unable to retire clearing the labor market for the nextt generation, an unprecedented student debt load, and soaring rents which Millennial incomes simply can not cover.
And that is why the economy is far worse than anyone in the mainstream media will admit.
But wait, because here comes the paradoxical punchline: as more and more Millennials are stuck in the basement for whatever reason, and refuse to be a part of the labor force, the immediate implication is that due to their inertness, and unwillingness to even try to get a job, the US labor force participation rate is crashing and artificially low as millions of young Americans remain either in their parents' basement or in college (with the benefit of a very generous student loan from Uncle Sam). The result - a chart which looks eerily comparable to the one up top, showing the number of Millennials living with their parents: the US labor force participation rate inverted.
Why is this a paradox?
Because as the participation rate declines, so does the unemployment rate (thanks to a record 94 million Americans not in the labor force). In fact, the worse the US economy is for tens of millions of millennials, the lower the broader unemployment rate drops, sending a false signal to the Fed and economists that the economy is actually stronger!
And the supreme irony: the worse the economy, and the lower the unemployment rate, the closer the Fed is to hiking rates. In fact, as Lockhart hinted today, the Fed may well hike rates in just one month due to one massive misinterpretation of what is really going on in an economy in which a record number of people choosing not to look for work, but to continue playing Xbox in their parents' basement... right next to their bed.
No wonder Goldman is confused. As for the Fed hiking right into what is by implication an economy that is grinding to a halt if not already in recession, well... just read our notes on what happened when the very same Fed woke up the "Ghost of 1937" in an almost identical scenario.
The outcomes, one of which was the second World War, were anything but pleasant...
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And nobody lies about living in the 'rents basement, so the data is immaculate.
Yep.
Speaking of lying, what happens if instead of a rate hike the Fed announces QE4 in September?
Apparently, It's bullish either way.
And since they are saving money by sharing cost under one roof. You should juxtapose the savings rate graph for the middle class next to this which is diving.that would really drive home the point.
Where would this statistic be if the Goldman fuckers had been allowed to fail? Now that's some interesting research...
"Where would this statistic be if ..." Bssh and Barry had used the QE trillions to create jobs instead of lining the pockets of Wall Street Bankers and CEOs ?
What the statistics don't tell you is where the remaining youths are living: with twelve others in a container in Oakland, with five others in an abandoned camper shell in Stockton, with 340 others in a hobo park in Midland, with 40 others in a barracks in Afghanistan, with four others in a dorm room at state college, and with 29 others in the drainage tunnels beneath Vegas. Home looks really good.
Goldman's not alone...Laszlo Birinyi: S&P at 3200 in 2 years
Laszlo Birinyi: S&P to 3,200 in two years Laszlo Birinyi: S&P to 3,200 in two yearshttp://www.planbeconomics.com/2015/08/laszlo-birinyi-s-to-3200-in-two-ye...
"young Americans living in their parents' basement must finally be moving out."
it's ok to live in their basement.
but don't park in their driveway.
hugs,
cobb county code enforcement
I don't think "the (empty) Sacks" be confused. The problem is - (just guezzin' here) has to be the result of some weird new time standard the EUR is on. I `member the FTSE dip (meaning the FTSE board closed) used to happen `round ~10:00am EST). Now, or so it seem, the FTSE dip hits the US market tickers `bout 2:00 to 3:00pm EST.
Gotta give the GS some credit - member that GS invented the mortgage CDS, oops forgot that `un too, an MD who didn't like talking to patients came up with that guy, ok ...well ... err ... well GS do call it's back offoce quant mechanic shops de "phynance dept" - get it - "physics" - "phynance". And GS was doing 'god's work' when, as AIG's Greenberg colorfully quibbed, in his take on the moment to a room full of K-Street Bribees, as a "Tsunami" that took a big dump on US financial markets.
And datz all most needed to hear at de time ....
Recalling the nerds that structured the Lehman/Sterno "fall guy" routine, `splained to some congressional committee that collateral calls on Lehman were difficult to precicisely define cause the two things needed to do a proper mark to market, an "ask" and a "bid", took an unplanned vacation to go fishing with de Dubby at maw's and paw's in Kennybunkport.
Time won't let me wait that long....
..maybe LLodys and Jamies schhlonges are shoved firmly up the butt of the economy..
Beginning to wonder whether millennials moved in with parents out of necessity during '08 / '09, which permanently deformed the entire generation's mindset on this subject.
Exhibit A: We have a highly-motivated summer intern from a good school with good post-graduation prospects and a father who's popping for all four undergrad years. Absolutely no reason not to strike out on his own when the time comes. But when I asked him about where he think he'll end up after college, he told me without hesitation that he'll move back in with the parents and take it from there.
I almost did a cartoon-ish double take. Seems like millennials are skewing Goldman's survey because of an unquantifiable "Pussy" factor.
This is just a symptom of the massive extraction the elites are extracting from all of us. Mellenials are at home because they can't afford rent or mortgage because they borrowed to go to school, then used the credit card to pay for food, and so forth... The idea is to make us all marginally productive surfs that have to rent everything. As Gekko said "i create nothing, i own". That's the bullshit sale of capitalism, everyone wins. In reality if you've ever played Monopoly you know owning things and the power to own expands exponentially. Everyone pays rent, reducing their capacity to own and gain rents while at the same time enslaving themselves to the winner. At the end the loser borrows from the winner just to survive. The concept is super easy but never referenced bacause it's to easy to understand, better to blame the kid in the basement as being unmotivated, and the renter a job creator. It's all bullshit.
Rents and mortgages are currently at all-time highs, even beyond the 2006 apex of the housing bubble!
When most of the jobs out there pay $10 or $11 an hour and offer 29 hours a week or less to comply with Obamacare, how is one suppose to afford $1,000 a month rent on a dumpy apartment?
Even if the fast food workers get their coveted $15 an hour, it still wouldn't cover these la la land monthly rental rates.
+1
Yeah, these 30 year olds still living at home are unmotivated because they bust ass at these shit service jobs that don't pay anything and they have nothing to look forward to besides video games and adult movies. The only "industry" left in this country is Real Estate and Finance. Every other job makes one broke.
That's the bullshit sale of capitalism, everyone wins. In reality if you've ever played Monopoly you know owning things and the power to own expands exponentially.
Yes, UNTIL the deflationary downcycle (which our financial overlords REFUSE to permit) clears out all the over-levered bad actors. Deflation and sound money are the mechanisms whereby everyone CAN WIN under capitalism - if they are allowed. The period 1870 to 1900 in the U.S. proves it. Steady deflation and very, very volatile (which bureaucrats cannot comprehend) but huge wealth created for millions.
Savings? With what little money they have they are buying the latest iPhone and medical marijunana for their "depression ".
There won't be a rate hike in September or any other month...
First the (attempted) Rate Hike....then the Risk Asset implosion...then the Rate Cut / talk back down / QE4. Judging by the nervousness surrounding liquidity of Credit ETFs maybe they will throw money at that this time around...
This is what my gut is telling me as well. They want to smoke the non-stawk markets (especially PMs, of course) but can't justify QE4. They will be able to after a nosedive.
What scares me is that there's an alternate scenario that they've put all the peices into place for: as we know, they can't fix things with QE and the banks are on ground that's even shakier than it was in '08, so they use a rate hike to trigger a partial meltdown, let the banks throw all their dirty laundry into one ginormous pile, and then play the bail-in card.
A coming bail-in would explain the recent intensification of propaganda and market manipulation of gold.
Gold is near ideal way to sit out a bail-in and TPTB know it.
I'll tell you what, a bail in would be catastrophic to public confidence in anything.
It would exponentially increase the number of us grumblers to the point where our club would be to big to manage.
That would be a club too big to have a member roster.
And too big to have me as a member.
QE4 is ringing the dinner bell for more easy money thus the big boys buy more stock. The new norm....bad news makes the markets go 'round. Well for a while anyway. If they do raise it won't be because of data. I have my doubts if things can even hold together with just a 25 basis raise.
If we were at -2.5% it couldn't hold together. They're done. They are in a liquidity trap and they aren't getting out without a collapse. All that's left to debate is the timing, which I guarantee won't be "by accident".
Obama will suck dick either way.
That step n fetch motherfucker will gobble some cock no doubt. He is wall street's little who'a.
Or, just for the f**k of it, the Fed went full retard, and went NIRP (Negative Interest Rates)?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/02/22/usa-fed-yellen-idUSN2222725320...
"the Fed went full retard, and went NIRP"
Then I'd open the Bank of Creepy, borrow $1 billion from the Fed and live off of the $10 to $40 million annual interest that the Fed would pay me.
negative interest rates are fabulous for gold. Imagine that neg interest directly destroying saved capital. Yet magically, not an ounce of gold on the planet dissipates....
... and in October, China announces they have 10,000+ tons of gold in order to have the Yuan more heavily weighted in the IMF's SDR. If gold is included in the SDR as China will want it to be, then each nation's weighting in the SDR will depend upon their ability to pledge physical gold as a percentage of their foreign purchases, and it will be show and tell time for the world's central banks. That's when the USA becomes a third world nation.
"To summarize:: a terrible labor market for the young generation as a result of "sticky" elderly workers who can't fall back on interest from their savings thanks to the Fed's ZIRP policy and are thus unable to retire clearing the labor market for the nextt generation, an unprecedented student debt load, and soaring rents which Millennial incomes simply can not cover. "
Sorry, too many words in a single sentence. I'm too old to understand.
Or is it becasue you "can't fall back on interest from their savings thanks to the Fed's ZIRP policy and are thus unable to retire clearing the labor market for the nextt generation, an unprecedented student debt load, and soaring rents which Millennial incomes simply can not cover?"
Who says I'm lying? I'm only living I my childhood room that's all not some basement.
Might going Galt at this point involve moving into YOUR family home?
Mind you, this is Goldman's, so if they're saying the economy is going to hell in a handbasket...what are they buying?
So often are cause and consequence confused. Maybe the real reason the economy is soaring is that these youngsters are being kept in Mom´s and Dad´s basement...?
How many half-employed baristas can the world take...? Most likely the real factor in improved productivity and production is this new automation , robotics , AI...etc. What to do with the "chew" - the uneducated MTV-generations. Yes- you guessed it - keep them in the basement!
And I am only half-joking. This robotics thing that ZH reported on is...very interesting. Soon Starbucks will have automated baristas that do everything - better.
There will only be a few hot babes in those stores...to get the middle-aged businessmen in. The rest can stay in the basement.
Where would we get human replacement parts then?
Need Moar basement dwellers and aborted fetus.
-- Old guy feeling young
Evolution. Breed on desirable attributes - hot bods or brains. The rest will just stay in the basements. It´s not me who came up with this idea. It was Darwin.
HEY MOM! CAN WE GET SOME MEATLOAF?
Mom! The meat loaf! Fuck!
Chazz Reinhold-Wedding Crashers
I am not judging because you are an innovator Chaz.....
I am not judging because you are an innovator Chaz.....
It's almost as though the Reds (shield or otherwise) want us all to behave like the Mediterranean countries...
Feckless goyim, take out many, many loans and pay us interest! It's the only model there is.
A bloodless war is what I call it.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/04/an-israeli-lobby-in-china/ 1st world nations are being bled dry, and their wealth sent to The new rich kid on the block.
A 100 year war no one really noticed is what history will call this.
"...In any case, what is obvious is that among certain advocacy circles in the U.S. there is a growing interest in and appreciation of China that comes as a reaction to both its global ascendancy as well as a changing global landscape towards the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These groups are surmounting successfully traditional impediments, establishing nearly a dozen ISPs in China, cultivating links with key think tanks and groups, and engaging the Chinese public through a variety of channels and mediums (a success that could be amplified considerably given the lack of similar initiatives emanating from alternative sources). While it is certainly difficult to gauge how successful these new trends in advocacy will be in effecting a change in China’s foreign policy over the long-run – especially when taking into consideration the structural and ideational challenges they face – and whether in fact we can speak of an “Israel lobby,” it is a trend well worth watching either way."
Mohammed Al-Sudairi is an LSE-Peking University graduate student." (Mohammed!!!)
http://web.utk.edu/~judaic/news/17_Schmidt.pdf - China and Judiasm- Cooperation, sharing, learning.
When I tell people in China that I am Jewish, I often get the same response. ‘‘Ah, so clever!’’ the Chinese person will say with a nudge.
http://latitude.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/oh-to-be-jewish-in-china/
“Judaism is a smart nation with a turbulent history. They accumulated their experiences and wisdom from generation to generation, possessing qualities such as excellent earning power and wealth-building means,” Zhu Xinyue, author of “101 Money Earning Secrets From Jews’ Notebooks” (2011) and “Learn to Make Money With the Jews” (2010), explained last week.
MSM is leaving out so much and making up the rest. It should have been a lw to never allow monopolizatoni of the news wires. But very courageous men died trying to stop this. Singlehandedly it seems. How do you fight this other than begin doing the same thing? Devious thinking does not come naturally and most are not prepared for the wolf under the sheep's clothing.
"Goldman Is Confused: If The Economy Is Recovering, Then How Is This Possible"
Confused thieves, or thieves confused?
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
"Yes, yes, I know, there were 10 packs of socks down my pants. However, in my defense, I was confused."
The only reason it's leveling out at 30% is because many of them are now over 34 years old and are no longer counted.
Logged in just to award you the Internet.
+1000
Much the same way Corp./Gov. doesn't count people who have given up looking for a job as unemployed.
+1 AGAU
My stomach hurts from laughing so hard!
[quote]
Because as the participation rate declines, so does the unemployment rate (thanks to a record 94 million Americans not in the labor force). In fact, the worse the US economy is for tens of millions of millennials, the lower the broader unemployment rate drops, sending a false signal to the Fed and economists that the economy is actually stronger!
[/quote]
Anybody else buy into this notion that the Fed is too stoopid to figure this out? (Me neither!)
BINGO! Something like 40% of my neighbors have kids in the 30-40 year old range living with them now. College educated, lost jobs, The data is s. h. i. t.
Once the Demcrats are done...we will be living in communes with our parents wearng mao jackets
... and the cap, don't forget that cool matching green cap he wore all the time with that neat red star on it.
https://shardsofchina.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/chairman-mao-without-c...
Oh YEAH the crooks who looted America are all Democrats.. <snort> <rolls eyes> I believe it 'cause that's what Rush and Glenn Beck said.
don't forget to clean those nailguns first
When I was 14, my father offered us $100 to leave.
It was 1975, and my Brother accepted the offer.
He was 17, and hated the old man. We all did.
21 miles into freedom, his rebuilt bike burned up.
The old man was so pissed he had to bring the kid back home.
So was I.
The Goldman Sack will really be surprised when the mellenials start offing their parents and eating them to collect mom and dad's monthly SS checks and live the dream. Redistribution, bitchez.
Sounds like a new American CBS evening show, throw some sexy FBI people in flying on their G5 and oh vey the ratings!.
"CSI MOMS BASEMENT"
Follow along with 4 crafty but unemployable graduates of FORENSIC SCIENCE STUDIES from the University of North Bug Tussle while they exhume bodies from the cemetary next door and perform autopsies in one of their moms basement on a folding table tennis top with the old mans skill saw and a rusty saws all blade and and try and convince Cheif Detective Marlow Banner of Bug Tussle PD that all of these individuals were done in by the same woman a ner do well sprinster played by Caitlyn Jenner in her debut appearance on night time teevee.
You Sir/Madam, have a brillant future ahead of you in script-writing! :>D
Wont be able to defend themselves either , cocksucker Obama is taking the guns from all SS recipients.
Ive often wondered what these kids will do when the corpse of mom and dad is devoid of flesh and the money no longer comes in. The majority I know are not in any financial position even to pay the property taxes. Selling the McMansion will be eaten up in no time with the high rents today.
Much of this is the fault of the parents. A work associate of mine has had her 42 year old son at home for most of his life. A brief time he left but quickly ran up $60k in credit card debit so they paid it off and took him back. She was bemoaning the fact he was going to ruin all the new furniture in his room she had converted into a guest bedroom with Big Gulp rings. I did my best not to say what I really felt but told her I thought she should realize he had lost respect for her if he didn't have the decency to use a coaster. She claimed it really wasn't his fault, he was just pathologically shy. Considering that response a non sequitur I gave up the conversation as hopeless.
Miffed
A good skill is knowledge how to field dress an animal in case of the above. They say it's important to use clean instruments. I guess it's so your Mom and Dad don't get an infection when you carve them up.
http://www.survivopedia.com/how-to-field-dress-an-animal/#
Might be a good idea to pursuade them to buy a bigger freezer in advance but probably not good idea to let them in on your plan.
I've read somewhere that parents taste alot like chicken.
That's a sad and common story these days. Bad parents = bad kids.
I don't begrudge kids moving back with parents in a bad economy with no jobs but not contributing to the household that sustains you in every way possible in exchange for them taking you in is just mindboggling to me. Parents who enable such behavior have no doubt done it for the childs life.
I was in the generation of kids where everyone got a trophy at the end of baseball season. My dad talked with me about it then, and wondered aloud what would happen to a generation of kids who have everything handed to them. I also read books in which the author asked about what the outcome would be of the mass drugging of boys.
Now, we're finding out the results of this little experiment, and it ain't pretty.
It's really not that bad. Hell, I have 5 bastard children, and 7 Undocumented Immigrants living in my basement, just look at my Tax Returns if you don't believe me...
"My dad talked with me about it then, and wondered aloud what would happen to a generation of kids who have everything handed to them."
If your father is a Baby Boomer he is probably talking about himself. They had a fantastic economy handed to them on a silver fucking platter. Then they went along with the plan after profitting, helped TPTB gut the economy, and left you with the scraps.
I highly dislike Millenials, but I would not even blame them for their current state. The economy was being trashed as they were growing up.
Should they get a job at Target to go along with their job at Starbucks? Will that be the straw that breaks the camel's back and allows them to afford the highest rent in history?
How would the parents dying or shifting to Long-term care facilities (and the kids moving e from basement to the main floor) affect the data?
Unless the home is paid for (doubtful) adult kid is homeless.
iphone contract and rent arguing about a young humans life (and them budget).
iohone wins
This chart shows the difference between people who moved back in with their parents, and people who never left. The first group got back out as things improved. The 2nd thinks they've got things pretty good.
All Bravo Sierra. The target is the Goyim & America then whatever else they can make of the ME using Saudi / Israel / Jordan / Qatar / Kuwait a few other's until they can get Iran etc.
As a millenial living with family and working full time, all I can say is: www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M
At least you reading ZH
The Fed isn't so stupid that they don't know the Unemployment Rate is bogus. They are just using it as cover / pretext to allow them to bump rates up 25bp. The Rate Hike (assuming it happens) is because 1) they know ZIRP is not working the way it was supposed to and/or 2) to show that the Fed is still relevent.
Exactly. But rather than use ZIRP- I'd use QE instead. One 1/4 or 1/2-it's all nominally ridiculous. Hike that fucker to 5% and watch the implosion.
The larger the deficit, the larger the profit$ going to the fed shareholders. Their loyalty is not to this nation.
Their problem is that the majority of their assets are the same as ours.
Paper or Plastic (0&1 s)?
They have an awfully hard time figuring things out without a lot of data and statistics...
They're like someone trying to drive by focusing completely on his GPS instead of just watching the road like someone with a functioning brain would..."Why do I keep running off the road? Why can't I seem to get anywhere?"...I don't know Lloyd, I just don't know. It's a fucking mystery..why don't you ask your little friend again...*sigh*
Goldman cannot feign ignorance, or bewilderment. Goldman has cooked the books for too long, and now not even the 'sheeple' believe any of the numbers being bandied about. In brief, rational expectations are such that whatever Goldman says is more than likely to be interpreted as bullshit by pretty much everyone, Lloyd, old boy.
If China can have ghost cities full of ghost household formations then so can we.
Bring back the Swirlogram !!!
from xbox to war? you fuckin moron
Landlords around here are super conservative about credit scores for people seeking apartments. And the apt costs are through the roof. Those that have jobs have jobs that totally suck if they're living with parents. Many feel they have to spend a substantial portion of their income on partying, the latest smartphones, and gadgets to stay connected, and Starbucks flavored coffee and $1.99 power drinks. The have no idea how frivilous and trendy their spending of what they DO HAVE is. Also, they are hit with medical costs. If they don't participate they'll lose their tax refund which so many rely upon. This crowd is totally unprepared to live in the adult world. Completely unprepared because their value system and what they consider to be be important is entirely f*cked.
Yes, totally unprepared because they possess a totally unrealistic set of expectations.
How did their expectation ever get so far out of line with reality?
Victims of propaganda?
Remember " because you deserve it"?
It looks like they swallowed that meme - hook, line , and sinker.
Thank the concerted effort to destroy christianity as a pillar of our culture, and those who financed and organized the campaign against it.
Sending the kids off to be raised by strangers 2 months after they are born, raised by strangers so mothers could proudly state, "I worked right up to the day I delivered and returned to work within 8 weeks! Aint I grand!"
Could it be that 1000 a month for a one room trailer just to costly?
we got invited to a goldman hosted dinner last week. presenter was trying to make a (tbf valid) point about risk tolerance, pulled a quarter from her pocket & asked who'd be willing to bet her $100 on the coin toss. when nobody took her up she made mistake of asking me what I'd be willing to bet so I thought for a second & told her I'd be willing to do $100 but not w/a goldman provided quarter, only if another random atendee provided one.
Did she manage to hold back a laugh?
That must have been really awkward.
Did she walk away grumbling about how you knew it was a two sided quarter with only one face?
she laughed (actually entire room laughed). it was weird - my opinion of them is not that far from tiabbi but regardless of what one thinks of their ethics (or even legality) they are the best at what they do & effectively own sec/fed/treasury/congress/etc so it's foolish to decline an opportunity to listen. tbf her point was valid & in hindsight anyone who couldn't afford to lose $100 had no business in that room (my reflection/she didn't say). hopefully I didn't get myself uninvited from future dinners but I couldn't not take the opportunity...
of course the question I really wanted to ask was: "what does my balance have to be before I graduate from muppet to being on the good side of your prop desk?"
Maybe it's because millenials have realized that home ownership is a scam.
People are always trying to sell you on the benefits of home ownership like "building equity". You're not building equity after taxes, repairs, buying and closing costs, maintenace, and lost time and stress. Why should I invest what is equivalent to a life savings in a fixed location which may or may not be desirable in 30 years and become a wage slave just to pay for it every single day. I'd rather live in a rental where my cash flow is heavily weighted to the present and I can spend that capital on experiences such as travel to foreign countries and still have a ton left over. Experiences not objects. Keeping up with the Joneses is dead.
You know what builds equity? Saving and investing (don't start about the PMs plz). Keeping my capital in my pockets even if equivalent to the price of a mortgage is so much more freedom when you're staring at a couple hundy in the bank ready for whatever life throws at you.
The last crisis was created based on the myth that everyone can or should own a home. Some people have woken up that the old American dream (objects) is dead and it's time to make a new one (experiences).
If that works for you, cool. Real estate is the investment that's allowing me to quit the 9 to 5 and travel.
That mortgage that you don't like? it's 3.675%. I didn't need a mortgage but got one anyways as that money is earning 6.7%.
Could it all blow up/collapse? Of course.
If they ever get rid of the housing write offs (mortgage interest and property taxes), how affordable would it become? I suspect you would go back to the gulag. Except if you are out the game too long "you lose all your skills," so you would be stuck pumping gas.
Depends, those are write-offs for owning your personal residence... In your scenario, I suspect that no one would own a personal residence, but yet many would also be landlords who get to deduct taxes and loan interest (and depreciate). Aside from the fact that you only get to take advantage of those personal deductions when you're able to itemize... many folks' itemized deductions are less than the standard deduction, especially in flyover country.
Anecdotal evidence I admit, but here's wht I've see in four differnt households I know:
* The parents sold their old house and borrowed a bunch of money to buy a much bigger and nicer house during the mid-1990's through mid-2000's real estate frenzy. Their plan was to keep it for 10-20 years until the kids move out on their own, then sell it at a very tidy profit (10% annual increase in equity is what they expected) and buy a comforatble low-maintenance retirement condo. Make lots of money by living in a swank place for a decade or two, then retire "on the house" to a life of comfort and ease. Go golfing and take Viagra. What could go wrong?
* Real estate tanked and took the rest of the over-hyped economy with it. The parents didn't get the pay raises they thought they would, they didn't make 10% annual appreciation on the fancy house, they didn't make 8% annual return on their 401Ks. The kids can't find jobs that pay enough to live on their own.
* Today the parents have a big house with broke kids in their 20's & 30's living with them. The kids pay nominal rent, which boosts "household income" and helps with the taxes & utilities & upkeep. No one's in any hurry to change things. The kids would like to have their own nice house and nice car and premium internet, but they can't begin to afford it. The parents would like the kids out of the house, but they really can't afford the place on their own and they can't sell it. Everyone tolerates each other out of necessity and looks back wistfully at the dreams they had 10-20 years ago.
Not even the "brightest" at Goldman's really knows what the fuck is going on! But they have been able to take full advantage of the confusion and coerce power at the centre to do their bidding. For Goldman's and their political cronies it doesn't matter what is working and what is not. What matters is making sure the sheeple remain more in the dark than the Goldmans of this world.
What Goldman's absolutely does know is that the proverbial debt mountain will crumble away from beneath one day, sinkhole-like. But that not even they will actually "see it" until it is too late.
And not until then will the sheeple know THEY were wrong all along to believe Goldman's, their charlatan politicians and the bullshit mainstream media!
What a dilemma, Goldman fucks everybody and everybody is fucked. It is kind of like the chicken or the egg riddle.
What is so confusing? College, healthcare, taxes and housing costs continue to rise at rates greater than wages. The Fed has kept rates at zero for seven years and printed trillion of dollars to keep this trend going so that all the debt/loans don't go bad. That was the goal all along. It's never had anything to do with helping the economy or the average guy.
TRANSLATION: Young people are not getting married.
Figure that one out.
According to my reading, before today the longest period without a rate change -up or down- was 1960-1965 when the rate went from 4.5 to 5%. Not only was ZIRP unprecedented, the amount of time we've spent here is unprecedented. We're through the looking glass being lectured by tweetledee and tweetledum about how everything is fine and everything should be making sense when nothing could be further from the truth. Methinks the "smartest guys in the room" started to believe their own bullshit and are coming back around. This might be the panic phase where they hope the wisdom of crowds doesn't kick in before they can do their best (not enough) to unwind it or pass the buck.
What about clothing/grooming costs? In all of these articles about how much Millenials are spending on college loans and health care and smart phones I never see mention of the frigging fortune they spend on their appearances. For the women it has to constrain their life choices in a big way. When I grew up in the 70s, you could shower, shave your legs/underarms, put on deodorant and jeans and a t-shirt and you were good to go. If you had a job you were stuck with a skirt/blouse and nylons. Now you have to have full body dermabrasion and hair-removal (but hair extensions for the head) and a $2k purse and "rent the runway" clothing and Sephora make-up and a different outfit for each selfie. The guys all look like they're doing many of the same things. And they can't even picture that there could be a different way to spend their money.
I'm a Xbox playing Millennial that rents their own single family house with land and farms and reads ZH for years :)
When the Goldmanites go back to live with their parents, you will know that the S has HTF.
Now we're cookin' with grease........
Good job, Tylers.........
I present to you, The New American Teenager
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=32c_1438587036
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=99e_1438565026
Which one was self promotion?
The pathetic assholes who run this freak show called America know full well what the hell is going on. They know exactly where this is heading. I'll bet the last dollar I have - they all walk clenching their ass cheeks so they don't shit themselves and constantly praying to whatever god they have this doesn't' implode on their watch. Bastards - every last one of them.
just hike the damn rates already. so much talk from yellen and gang
Unless... it is all baseless propaganda meant simply to inspire confidence in rigged data.
Is there any other kind of data
i fucking hate the squid. people living with their parents used to be the way of the generational farm. now the squid and other bank maggots have monetized all that and they fucking laugh at everyone as if they are all dismal failures because they can't adapt to the fucking maggot rigged fucking ripoff eCONoME. DOUBLE FUCK THEM AND THE JOISEY WHORES THEY RODE IN ON!!
Awh ya didn't have to go that far: right next to their bed.
That was pushin it. You could have said next to their old high school desk or Dad's first mounted taxidermied bass plaque. But right next to the device that they were cranked out in. That's hittin pretty low. Love is a wonderful thing and to gum it all up with overtones of what did they do? Or what were they thinking? Man that's just plain cruel.
This is typical in Third-World Countries. What's to be "Confused" about?
they're growing marijuana in the basement, tax free income, they pay mom and dad rent ( a cut of the revenue) and don't come down here!!! okay
Couldn't build a fire if their life depended on it...
zh, i have seen you go soft on Goldman Sucks. Do you have a relationship. Godman is not confused. It is trying to confuse the rest... purposefully... The narriative is going to be silly ... "Oops the promised land did not arrive... but by mistake they got rich while they were misleading everyone on how glorious the future is."
If in September there were to be some kind of disruptive event of, say, a global financial or geostrategic character, it seems very prudent that the Fed hike rates -- maybe even impressively -- just days before the event to help sell the notion that, "Ahh, shoot! And things were truly getting better up until that damnable event!" Then, under this upgraded fear paradigm, they could roll out whatever financial repression and capital control measures they want... the more unprecedentedly draconian the better.
If the Fed were to balk once again on a September rate hike, however, the number of economic recovery doubters would surely begin to surge, if not go parabolic. A false flag with "Russian" or "Chinese" hackers shutting down a major portion of US equity markets, for instance, just wouldn't offer the same dividends, and might even arouse suspicion among the stirring flock.
Record rents, record health insurance and maintenance costs.....something has to give.
The truth:
Unemployment is 25% for past 7 years much worse than the great depression
We have imported 80 million hispanics who game the welfare system and drain food pantries dry with massive SUV trucks to feed their huge families
We have policies which grow the black welfare race to 15 million each having 4-20 kids to get on section 8
We give illegal aliens free health care, get out of jail free cards for murder rape and drunk driving, but haul in any white citizen over anything
We imported 8 million indians with fake degrees who are dumb as a stump on the H-1B visa to tak all the tech jobs from white people
Many of our once fine cities are now majority negroid raping hell holes - kansas city, rochester ny, all of california
The elections are complete frauds - the threw Ron Pauls official five state nomination papers on the convention floor.
Obamacare was nothing but the ultimate tax on white people to pay for the health care of 100 million negroid raced people who dont work
While there should be massive programs to help peole keep their houses and get unemployment, the government does nothing declaring it a recovery.
The zionist bolsheviks smile. Soon. Soon white people will be destroyed. Full enslavement of the nation will then begin in full force.
Yeah its so bad now that even top grads can't get responses from large-cap US corporations on their job application. The H-1B infestation has destroyed the US STEM profession.
Damn right. My situation is becoming fast ridiculous and if you saw my CV you would know how unjustified that is. Some fucking Chinaman just too my god damn job (I've been back in the States all of a year) and I think I will be moving to Sweden for the next one!
The last 40 years has seen a change in the economy where "once upon a time" a single person could earn a living and put a roof over their head.
Today it takes two! This fundamental change and yea couples need childcare now because only two incomes are enough and in many cases barely..
So the child at home = single stays at home in this two income world very much because they are not able enough financially to get out.
This period of time before they have a chance to get out is increasing as the price of property rises relative to incomes and that after parental home isolation they even bother with a girlfriend / boyfriend now.
THAT'S YOUR CENTRAL BANKER PLANNED WORLD.
Hey Mr Banker, put people on a 3 day week makes no difference because in 3 days you have to earn enough for 7 days but there is a bonus. Yowould lose 4 days of not needed production with automation and mechanisation. 3 day week was a 70's thing.
So both parents working full time to balance the manipulated economy so all those with kids at home ... you voted for it, you got it, so stop moaning about it UNLESS YOU WANT TO VOTE THE CURRENT LOT OUT AND REBLANCE THE ECONOMY SO SINGLE PEOPLE EARN ENOUGH to stand on their own.
It is not the end of the world as we know it just yet, but we are in the midst of the end of the United States as we know (knew) it. In 2008, the media gave its blessing to giving a radical activist, the helm of the country because in their view, a more liberalized America would be a good thing. But unwittingly, they opened the doorway to America's doom. Obama is planting "seed-cities", bringing in muslim refugees whose religious tenets prohibit assimilation. With massive funding to develop these seedling cities and birthrates five times average, Obama will make good on his promise to "fundamentally transform America". Indeed, the age of America as we knew it is irretrievably over. Jeremiah Wright preached to Obama, "God damn America" (Damn it to hell/kill it)... He got his way.
Of the many mistaken arguments that are repeatedly trotted out in ZH comments, the essence of one offered by Felix is the most fundamental.
As long as people continue to point fingers at individuals, and fail to recognize the it is the system that is both corrupt and badly broken, they will remain part of the problem, and not the solution.
Sometimes it's hard to see the forest (system) through the trees (individual government thugs and puppets).
from today's MSM there is no hope of jobs and trump is not going to bring em back..see how the MSM protects the elite .01% and the NWO globalism..it was just economic destiny we lost millions of jobs nobody was to blame..they think we are idiots.
"- Donald Trump vows to bring back the millions of American jobs lost to China and other foreign competitors if voters put him in the White House.
Economists say he wouldn't stand a chance: Trump's boundless self-confidence is no match for the global economic forces that took those jobs away."
"The System", as you refer to it, is like saying "Banks" are responsible for the meltdown of 2007-8-9. "Slavery" was responsible for the War Between the States, "Germany" invaded Poland, England, France.
"Banks", "systems", "institutions" of all types are "hide Behind" euphemisms because the media will not name names that bring about the state of things.
There are real live anti-human beans behind those institutions who make decisions that cause the tragedies, problems, and corruption.
Lord Blankfein, Joe Cassano, Ace Greenberg, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Mary Shapiro, Chris Cox, Lew Ranieri, Angelo Mozillo, Tim Geithner, Hank Paulson, and thousands of others caused the ripoff of the global financial system.
PEOPLE, who you apparently disregard in your upside notion of the world ARE to be pointed at, and frequently. not forgotten about, but held to account for their crimes of fraud, murder, and theft.
Get a fucking clue and know that you are being propagandized by a complicit media, aiding and abetting the bastards who live and breathe.
YOU stop blaming institutions, and get the names into your skull.
You imagine that replacing those people with others – and leaving the system intact – will solve the problem?
All we need is the right Republican, or Democrat? The right head of JPM, or the IMF?
Honest politicians who won't take advantage of the revolving door?
Etc., etc., etc.
Good luck with that.
I've never suggested that individuals don't matter, nor that that shouldn't be held accountable, but when a systems are as corrupt and broken as they are today, pointing fingers at individuals is to miss the point entirely.
It ain't easy being Tinky, is it?
Damn right I do. Take Alan Greenspan, the primo architect of the asset bubble with his 20 yrs of low interest rates. He alone could have, like Volker did (he too, alone) raised rates to Widows and orphans levels is he wanted to. Because he wanted to inflate assets and didn't want to stop, he handed the world and all who invested in REITs the worst loss of asset values in history.
And yes, Angelo Mozilo invented the NO=Doc loans, forced his mortgage sellers to get everyone a mortgage so he could pass off those loans to The Jewish mafia on Wall street to the likes of Dickie Fuld, YES, another individual, NOT an institution.
The system as you call it was made up as it went along, not some monolithic monstrosity like the Federal Gubmint.
And right now there are INDIVIDUALS who can say, NO! to the mergers and acquisitions of Anthem (Blue Cross) and CIGNA, two perfectly viable companies with hunnerts of thousands of employees, 25% of which will be put on the streets so that the CEOs Board members and others who have inside knowledge can make even more generation spanning fortunes on the backs of those laid off.
You are treating the men and women behind these actions with far too little criticism, way too much dismissiveness.
Democrat and Republican have nothing to do with it.
All these people who are hiding behind their institutions need to be stripped of their camo, and nakedly paraded on the MSM for the ongoing fraud they are committing. Not the institutions who disguise the actions of their employees as "mistakes were made" , bullshit. Mistakes were made BY PEOPLE not the system.
You'll get no argument on that from me!
Goldman has no one to blame but itself ... and maybe it is proud that it has murdered the US.
When I read the above article, it tells me the effects at a macro level. It does not tell me the cause. I have a 24 year old daughter who is a teacher. She lives at home mostly because she does not want to live alone. I can afford to get her, her own place. She has an underemployed boyfriend, who also lives at home. Together, without our help, they could not afford to have their own place. I believe this is the real key, the world as Goldman sees it is a world full of bankers and people living off of debt ... or living off of someone else's debt and leaving the someone else with the bill. This is not acceptable for most people, something I doubt that Goldman can get their head around. People do not accept being debt-slaves, while Goldman's entire world exists to create debt-slaves and elitists... not functioning economies and independent people.
I suspect that Goldman and the rest of the elitist parasites could do a great job at creating a functioning, moral, ethical and functionally independent society if that is what they really wanted to do. Clearly that is not what they want. Their actions indicate that they want to murder the middle class through debt, corruption, inflation and taxes ... no matter what else they claim they want. Their actions are the exact opposite of what they claim they want.
Look at the corrupt hog they have funded to become the president of the US. The woman is morally reprehensible. Why do they want her to be president? Because she is corrupted and they can control her. Call me stupid, but this is exactly the wrong kind of person that you want leading a country if you want it to succeed. This is the kind of person you want leading a country if you want to destroy it. The same goes for her retarded half-brother ... their other choice. Why do they choose the wrong people to lead? Because they believe it is good for them, not because it is good for the country and its people.
I do not believe that young adults are still at home because:
- parents are rich and can afford their children living with them?
- parents are indulgent and allow their children to live with them?
- the gods of controlling the human domain have made X-Box and television so much more important than working, being independent and raising a family?
- the ever increasing number of gay people in the millennial generation
- Obama's illegal aliens have taken all of the middle class jobs
It is because Goldman (and THEIR kind) killed the US by corrupting its leaders and murdering the middle class. I am sure they are proud of what they have done... which is actually "sad".
All I can say is "if those dumbassed kids would have moved to Colorado, studied horticulture (growing cannibus) they would of had a trade, demand for the product they grow and not living in their parents basement" . Instead they went to State College, got charged big time for classes that they will never use except in conversation with some artsy individual at a party or bar.
Just got back from Colorado, enjoyed the trip and the cool weather. Saw all my native american and mexican cowboy friends I grew up with. Even the red necks are now open to growing cannibus. The money that the schools and roads have is unmatched in the counties that have rejected connibus growing.
The elections are comming up next summer, the local redneck anti cannibus croud is going to loose out to the new progressive's flooding into the areas.
Put "the cannibis" in a search and read about it! Or you can sit in your basement and jack off, no one really cares.
So if everyone starts growing weed what will happen to the price? Will everyone be able to afford their rent pushing what were formerly dime bags for a $1? Supply & demand man, supply & demand....
Cannabis raises estrogen levels. Pussy Duck..recoiled, whimpering. "Me Be The Bottom." "Tell Me What To Do"
GS just talks their.
GS: MOAR GROWTH IS COMING!!!
Sheeple: Better buy MOAR STAWKS!!!
GS: *sells inventory*
Sheeple: Why do I get a free bag when I buy MOAR STAWKS?? Is something wrong?
Of course not.
The SOLUTION was to reinflate real estate prices to save the banks. This has become the PROBLEM for the "real" economy.
F*ck these lazy trophy kid millenials and their parents.
My wife and I are in this demo, bought a house, had a kid, and spent a shit load of $$ at Home Depot in the last 3 years. The cycle can be broken.
Too many loaded up on easy debt $$ from Uncle Sam for their worthless online criminal science degrees. They have no skills and are useless to any employer.
Force parents to give 'em all 90 days notice to get out of the house and do something. Slam 'em with a tax penalty for having an unproductive 30yr old bumming around the house all day.
Chomu