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Laszlo Birinyi Projects S&P 3,200 Within 2 Years, Squeaks "It's All Noise, Don't Worry"
"It's all noise," squeaks Laszlo Birinyi, deflecting concerns about revenues, earnings, Europe, China, commodities, and rates as he unleashes his latest extrapolation. "If we continue to grow at 11 bps per day, the S&P will be at 3,200 within 2 years," adding "you can dismiss 40% of the S&P", supposedly the 40% that is not going up, he warbles as he hopes his ruler - which missed its 2013 projection by 1100 points or 40% - is is more accurate at forecasting this time.
Good luck with the ruler this time Laszlo.
This would represent a 24x multiple on Goldman Sachs' already exuberant $134 estimate for 2017 earnings, which in turn assumes oil soars back to $100 or higher, and S&P earnings grow by almost 20% over the next two years. Dare we suggest that in order for the S&P to reach 3,200 within 2 years, the dollar will have to collapse in a Venezuela-esque hyperinflation. By then, the real question will be not if 3,200 but whether 32,000 or 320,000...
Finally, his 2013 "forecast" aside, here is what he said would happen entering the biggest economic and market collapse in US history:
LASZLO BIRINYI, PRESIDENT, BIRINYI ASSOCIATESA
Wall Street veteran who landed his first job at a financial services firm, Auerbach, Pollack & Richardson, in 1972, Birinyi has seen many market crises. The current one doesn't faze him much: "Based on historical data, I articulated a principle some years ago that has been very profitable for me," he says. According to Birinyi's "Cyrano principle," "if the concerns of the market are as obvious as the nose on your face, the market and monetary policymakers will have an amazing ability to adapt and adjust." He believes the Fed will do what it takes to calm the credit crisis.
Birinyi thinks the bull market that started in 2002 is still very much intact. He expects the current economic expansion to continue, with 5% corporate earnings growth helping to propel the Dow to 15,000 by the end of 2008. The signs of a market top, which include speculative fervor and rising stock valuations, "really aren't present," he adds. At 15 to 18 times estimated earnings—the exact number depends on how you measure earnings—stock market values are neither cheap nor expensive. If the market were a traffic light, Birinyi says, it would be flashing a yellow signal now.
Birinyi sees "pockets of value." With risk aversion rising, he thinks investors will pay more for such predictable growth stocks as Google (GOOG) and Deere (DE). He expects commodity prices to keep rising "as the emerging markets continue to emerge." He also favors buying stocks which were "excessively punished" in the recent subprime-related meltdown. They include retailers Tiffany (TIF), Nordstrom (JWN), J. Crew (JCG), and financial giant American International Group (AIG).
Source: Bloomberg, December 2007
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What a maroon.
Moar Cowbell!
PS Just yesterday I was watching old banned Looney Tunes cartoons on Utube. Some side splitting stuff there!
MORE LSD!!!!
AIG? Better check on the fools in the in the corner. They may be betting the company again.
If there is a run on the EU bank, where is all that money going to go to hide? Probably US bonds and stocks as perverse as that sounds. His prediction could be right. Interesting times ahead.
Sooo... 2100 by EOY 2017? Seems doable.
I like the one where the coyote runs off the cliff. Oh wait, thats what I see in the news everyday. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference, well, most times.
A man can have his dreams, and his hallucinations.
but "dreams and hallucinations" are what are driving the Fed
....so, as backwards as it sounds.....and is......he might be right.
(i have been wrong for 24 mos using the opposite of what i'd call "dreams and hallucination" analytical methods.....what's right has been wrong. what's bad has been good. what's normal has been abnormal. what's abnormal has been normal....and so on. I'm so far out of the balance that i want to do the opposite of what my analysis suggests)
Venezuela-esque hyperinflation?
We can make that happen....
Or Greek style deflation first.
Cocaine induced call.
Syphalitic encepholitis is my guess.
"is is more accurate at forecasting this time"
You live and learn. It's a good call in our book.
3.. 2.. 1.. for Tom Lee to leap over Laszlo.
Folie à deux - these two.
ugh .. that voice !.... dude needs to stick to writing fiction.
Like a cross between the Godfather and Minnie Mouse (but with slightly less market acumen)
"Squeeeek no more"
Could be worse - I'd sooner listen to his voice than Yellen's.
DavidC
The great re-set cometh!
Why do suffer skanky scum like this to live such pampered lives?
His last name sounds like a delicious Indian rice dish. At least I have the deluded perception it does.
It makes me hungry for curry, which all makes about as much sense as these fools and charletons on CNBC.
Beware of the Alsation Biryani.
Been there,done that.
Is S&P 3,200 the new Dow 36,000?
FUCK YOU, BIRYANI!!!!! BASTARD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It is just noise.
Invest in the empire.
Until it falls.
if the Chinese start to buy into our market...watch out....up up and away....its just a piece of paper....but it keeps going up....
He might be right at some point in the future, but you sure as heck won't be able to hold a ruler on the index (like you could the last couple years) and say, yeah I should have seen that coming.
I don't know where he gets his numbers. I can't get to 3800 from here.
2098 * (1.0011)^500 = 3600 (approx) given 5 * 52 - 10 = 250 trading days per year more or less.
2098 *(1.0011)^ 730 = 4706 (365 days a year).
He must be doing linear math. 2098 + (2098 * .0011 * 500) = 3250. Yep. Need 2.3 points every trading day. Imagine if one could get 3 points every trading for 3 years. one would be at 4000 !!!! Gotta buy stawks.
Sure sounds like someone is in desperate need of muppets to buy his holdings so that he can lock in his bonus for the year.
Forget about the bonus, he needs to get out of his position before he gets CRUSHED!!! When the bubbleheads are doubting you, you have a problem....you can smell the fear
He is not using numbers, he is using a ruler
deleted. Figuratively - sure.
Desparate paper-pushers everywhere. Noise indeed. Fuck em and feed the motherfucking guillotines already so the people who ctually know how to create things of real value and innovate can do so.
Long past time to thin the fucking herd.
disdain-plated-fear of things like guillotines
wrapped in a failed taunt at the end
"...there is no reason we can't keep on going..."
notice his head shaking side to side as if he doesn't even buy what he is saying
"Dare we suggest that in order for the S&P to reach 3,200 within 2 years, the dollar will have to collapse in a Venezuela-esque hyperinflation. By then, the real question will be not if 3,200 but whether 32,000 or 320,000..."
"He believes the Fed will do what it takes to calm the credit crisis."
Is he not telegraphing what is in $$$store, or what...?
All I need to do is draw a straight line, and bada bing bada boom, 3200.
He'll either be right or he'll be wrong.
Birinyi's Ruler. Another milestone in investor hubris.
And people wonder why this country is so fucked up.
This guy needs to be wound in 100 rolls of Plastic Wrap and baked @ 500 degrees for a couple million years, or until done.
He is a moron, but I would caution against trying to short this market. It looks like it is turning over, but I suspect enough economic weakness will appear before the end of the year that the Fed reverses course and cuts rates and/or reinitiates QE. When that happens, the S&P will literally rocket ahead. I think 3000 on the S&P is well within reach in such a circumstance. It will, of course, eventually collapse in a blood bath of epic proportions, but I don't think we have seen the top yet.
"If we continue to grow at 11bps per day, the S&P will be at 3,200 within 2 years,"
I'll guess that is a fact, but it is irrelevant to what the S&P will actually do over the next two years.
2 years? We can do that in JUST 2 MONTHS! Print-print-print!
He did say that "Most people don't realize the S&P" blah blah is doing better than ever in history; and I'm thining EVERYONE knows the Fed is throwing cheap counterfeit at the markets you dick. What a supreme asshole that asshole is.
Buy backs bitchez! They can stone the P/E numbers like a pimp his hookers.
Soooooo..........what made him a "legendary" investor?
As for his voice - - - great, now I've got erectile dysfunction.
How much does this turd make a year? I'll do his gig in my spare time for half.
I think I recognize that voice - it's Felix the cat !
Or he has Yellen hiding in his pants, squeezing his balls.
And all the sheepies went baaa the dip.
He should invest some of his money to buy larger underwear (his annoying voice is very likely a direct function of his overly tight underwear)
An abomination.
What an evil, ugly, utterly repugnant creature.
You cannot be human and countenance this vile animal.
Any country that doesn't quarantine this filth is an abomination.
God bless America.
I think he meant the Dow will be at 3200...
3200 on the S&P would have all stocks trading around 180% of GDP (36 trillion give or take a trillion). How high is this dude.
WTF is a basis point in the S&P? They're called handles asshole a basis point is term used in interest rates.
The money flow cowboy is still pipe dreaming the crime scene higher!
BTFD BTFD of course unlike the urban dictionary this is not Buy The F#cking Dip this is Bought The F#cking Dunce
Heck Google pushed NASDAQ up 160 points on 12% rise YOY and fell 11% QOQ.
I guess I am the fool for not letting this guy touch my money.... Wonder who does.
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