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Some Clear Thinking About The Price Of Gold
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,
On April 2, 2001, the price of gold closed the market trading session at $255.30.
And that was the lowest price that gold has seen ever since.
In US dollar terms, gold closed the 2001 calendar year higher than it did in 2000. Then it did the same thing again in 2002. And again in 2003.
In fact, after reaching its low in April 2001, gold closed higher for twelve consecutive years– something that had never happened before in ANY financial market with ANY asset.
Then came a correction; the price started falling, and gold is now on track for 2015 to be its third down year in a row.
What’s incredible is that, despite its history of gains, and 5,000 years of tradition behind it, gold is rapidly becoming one of the most widely despised assets.
But before we pronounce it dead and write the final gold eulogy, however, let’s consider the following:
1) Nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line. After 12 straight years of unprecedented gains with any asset class, it’s not unusual to have a meaningful correction.
(Just imagine how severe the correction in stocks will be. . .)
And like all frantic booms which go way past sustainable levels, corrections also overshoot fair value.
This correction in the gold market could easily last for several more years, with prices potentially well below $1,000.
But then we could just as easily see another massive surge all the way past $2,000 and beyond.
That’s the nature of these markets– to be extremely fickle (and highly manipulated).
Even over a period of a few years, the market can show about as much maturity as a middle school lunchroom, complete with pubescent gossip and inane popularity contests.
But it’s rather short-sighted to completely lose confidence in an asset that has a 5,000 year track record because of a few down years.
2) The gold price shed nearly 5% after the government of China announced recently that they owned 1,658 metric tons of gold.
This amount was lower than what many investors and analysts had been expecting, and the price of gold dropped as a result.
My question- since when did anyone start believing official reports from the Chinese government?
Seriously. The Chinese have a vested interest in understating their gold holdings.
They know that doing so will push the price of gold LOWER, which is exactly what they want.
China is sitting on trillions of dollars in reserves right now, a portion of which they’re rapidly trying to rotate OUT of US dollars.
So it’s clearly beneficial to the Chinese government if they can sell dollars while they’re strong and buy gold while it’s cheap.
And if they can push gold to become cheaper, even better for them.
3) Remember why you own gold to begin with.
Gold is a very long-term store of value. Notwithstanding a few down years, gold has maintained its purchasing power for thousands of years.
Paper currencies come and go. They get devalued, revalued, and extinguished altogether.
How much would you be able to buy today with paper money issued by the 7th century Tang Dynasty? Nothing. It no longer exists.
Or a pound sterling from 1817? Very little. It’s barely pocket change today.
Yet the gold backing up that same pound sterling from 1817 is worth over $250 today (165 pounds).
Even in modern history, the gold backing up a single US dollar from 1971 is worth vastly more than the paper currency that was printed 44 years ago.
But even more importantly, aside from being a long-term store of value, gold is a hedge— a form of money that acts as an insurance policy against a dangerously overleveraged financial system.
How much will your dollars and euros buy you in the event of real financial calamity? Or if there’s a major government default or central bank failure?
No matter what happens in the financial system– whether it collapses under its own weight, or cryptofinance technology revolutionizes how we do business– gold ensures that you’re protected.
4) Resist the urge to value gold in paper currency. We all have this tendency– we invest in something, and then hope it goes up in value.
But that’s a mistake with gold. It’s a hard thing for some people to do, but try to stop yourself from thinking about gold in terms of its paper price.
(It’s also important to remember that there’s a huge disconnect between the ‘paper price’ of gold, and the physical price of gold.)
Remember, gold is not an investment; there are plenty of better options out there if you’re looking for a great speculation.
So the notion of trading a stack of paper currency for gold, only to trade the gold back for a taller stack of paper currency misses the point entirely.
5) Having said that, if you find it too difficult to do this, and you catch yourself constantly refreshing the gold price and checking your portfolio, you might own too much.
Listen to your instincts; if you’re always feeling frantic about the daily gyrations in the market, lighten your load.
Don’t love anything that won’t love you back. Stay rational. Own enough gold that, in the event of a crisis, you will feel comfortable that you have enough ‘real savings’… but don’t own so much that you’re constantly worrying about the paper price.
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During the depression my father said that you could buy a house for $100 but nobody had $100. My grandfather traded dental work for hard assets like gold and real estate.
Tyler, please commission some independent reports on what the gold price would be if not linked to paper, and what it would take to break those links,. It feels like if you own paper at x124 dilution it should be worth $8 a share, and gold phyz should be $2000+ per oz. Needs to decouple.
In 1964 I could buy a gallon of gas for 3 dimes.
Today, I can buy a gallon of gas with 2.4, (1964) dimes.
Keep stackin.
Great observation AuEagle. This is why I read ZH.
Would a 1964 quarter do instead of 2.4 dimes?
ZH is running some psy op articles now. If u buy gold get yr hands ON it.
Now even Soc Gen says gold is going up
http://investmentwatchblog.com/prepare-for-massive-rally-socgens-edwards...
Shocked, shocked!
In a world of irrational markets I would be shocked if gold was not as badly mispriced to the downside as equities are to the upside. I am where I want to be. I sleep like a baby on benadryl.
Simon Black "LONG AND WRONG" Turd Fergeson "LONG AND WRONG" KWN bozos "LONG AND WRONG" Peter Schiffty "LONG AND WRONG" 5K Sinclair "HIDING"
Until they're not and you're wrong. So what?
"This correction in the gold market could easily last for several more years, with prices potentially well below $1,000."
This article reads like a Beavis and Butthead episode:
Hey Bevis, he said "correction", ha ha, ha ha ha, ha ha.
Um, did he just say "market"? Ha ha ha, ha ha. What a dumbass!
People have, by convention, identified Gold's position relative to currency in perfect 180 degree reverse.
Today most say, "Yesterday an ounce of Gold was worth $1900 and today it is only worth $1100. The price of Gold is going DOWN!!!"
But there's another way to look at it.
Long ago, and for a long, long time a Dollar was 1/20th of a Gold ounce.
Then a Dollar was worth only 1/33'd a Gold ounce.
Then only 1/42'd a Gold ounce.
Then 1/250th a Gold ounce.
For a while a Dollar was worth only 1/1900th an ounce...but it rose, rightly or wrongly, back to 1/1100th an ounce.
The Dollar has a very discernable trend with respect to Gold, that is as old as the Greenback itself.
95 or more times out of 100 the Dollar is worth less Gold each year than it was worth the year before.
Think about that. Chart it, if you must.
But in the last 100 years, the bet that the value of the dollar would decline was (and is) as sure a thing as has ever existed in the prognostications of men.
My brother, I am a fellow EW chartist myself. I hang around with all the EW dudes around a dif name.
If you truly know EW and hand around with anyone worth their salt, you would know the whole House of Cards is about to collapse, finally. We are about to witniss P4:
http://www.elliottwave.com/introduction/elliott_wave.aspx
As such, it will be a severe decline, Mind you, Elliott Wave Theory not only appies to the stock market. It also applies to EVERTHING.
We ARE going to go through change. Whether or not anyone likes it.
Best buck up and hold onto your seatbelt.
"you might own too much"
in close to 20 years of stacking, I'll have to admit, this thought has never occurred to me...
Yeah.
How can spmeone own too much gold?
While I have a little physical gold because it glitters, I think a better hedge against currency collapse for ordinary people is silver coinage. Gold has always been a bit too pricey for buying groceries. A couple of old U.S. silver dollars, however, are about perfect. And there are enough of them lying around to provide a quick&easy alternative currency in case of trouble, especially if they become part of a "currency basket" that includes small-arms ammunition, weed, cigarettes and aged whiskey. These are all things that will be readily accepted in trade because they can be readily traded. Silver dollars are standardized, recognizable, and come in a convenient 1 oz size. They're the perfect hedge against an economy going Greek.
Certainly, if you have large amounts of cash you want to hedge, use physical gold. You can store more value in a smaller package that way. But if your income and expenses are closer to the median, silver coins are more practical.
Oh, and the Faeries like them, too.
No doubt.
Silver is just as good.
You get it.
The big fellas can own the gold.
When society starts to collapse, you betchya silver is "poor man's gold".
And when gold skyrockets, all that's left is silver.
Silver is da future of all things electro. Not saying it's the "be-all-end-all" of metals/electro, but it IS VITALLY IMPORTANT TO INDUSTRY.
Gold is the currency of Kings
Silver is the currency of Gentlemen
Barter is the currency of Peasants
Debt is the currency of Slaves
Sheeple misunderstand the modern day purpose of gold, It's that simple. I was once also a sheeple, but managed to escape the holding yard. Thanks mostly to ZH.
Any one who trades for a living or simply lives in a society, must participate in this fiat bullshit of an economy. I've been slowly converting my paper assets to gold over the last three months and will stop at 20%.
I hope to god the sheeple continue to shun gold for a little while yet. There's no better feeling, when you buy something at bargain basement prices.
Take note sheeple, if there are any on this website: gold is primarily an insurance policy. As soon as you figure that out, you will too, start buying gold.
Agreed
Close on 3 acres next week.
Have 6 months of food and preps.
Have a solar setup that will generate 300 watts per hour for emergency power
Have Firearms and 1000 rounds for each, 2 german shepherds
Hav 18.5% in Gold and Silver and will stop when I hit 20% combined.
Been getting ready for 4 years. Haven't seen anything in 4 years that tells me that things are better
Hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
watts per hour???
It generates 300 watts per hour, that's a bit narginal if you ask me...
Here in the UK I am informed there is a multiplication factor of ten between the lowest wintertime daytime output and the highest summertime so we tend to have a minimum of 4Kw worth of solar cells,
In addition if you want to run washing machines toasters and kettles etc then you need surplus forklift truck or submarine batteries and a BIG inverter.
Finally, you need a method of usefully appllying the huge surplus of energy that you generate in tha summer.
Yes,
Its a basic system portable system intended to provide a small amount of electricty for basic things. I live in the south and we haven't run our heater in the winter for the last 2 years so the basic needs are only for small appliances and possibly a small freezer. I'm doubling the wattage and batteries to get a longer sustained ability to use basic 120 volt appliances. Can't run an A/C in Texas which sucks but in an emergency I have basic power that does not advertise. Once I have my land cleared I can expand the solar and battery arrays to handle heavier loads. I have over 3 acres of Hardwoods and back up to over 1000 acres of national forect so fuel is not a problem.
Clearly, the $USD price of gold is being manipulated to the Downside by the very same powers that desire a Cheaper price to load up on it before the Next Big Move to the Upside and New All-Time Highs!
They will be the ones to make the Most $$$'s in the Shortest Time!
Simon Black doesn't like Tables, charts.
Total Gold Supply, 2013, 2014:
Tons Gold supply, 4282, 4410,
http://www.gold.org/supply-and-demand/gold-demand-trends#full
Looks like a Balance where the Demand takes all the Supply for whatever reason.
Would love to sell Jewelery in India or China.
Table 7, Gold Demand By Country for 2014, Tons:
Greater China, 1,051,
China, 974,
Hong Kong, 61,
Singapore, 22,
Taiwan, 16,
Indonesia, 63,
India, 811,
Malaysia, 19,
Thailand, 107,
Vietnam, 67,
Saudi Arabia, 84,
UAE, 66,
Egypt, 51,
Iran, 75,
Turkey, 117,
Russia, 75,
United States, 164,
Germany, 112,
United Kingdom, 33,
Switzerland, 48,
But Table 11 shows some historical data that Coins & Bars, Central Bank Purchases have pushed Global Demand Up by 1000 Tons each year over the last 10 Years.
Historical Annual Demand in GOLD TONS:
Global Demand, Coins/Bars, Central Banks, Total Everything
2005: 418, -663, 3,127,
2006: 430, -365, 3,096,
2007: 438, -484, 3,115,
2008: 918 -235, 3,777,
2009: 832, -34, 3,674,
2010: 1,202 80, 4,213,
2011: 1,493, 481, 4,728,
2012: 1,300, 569, 4,690,
2013: 1,702, 626, 4,436,
2014: 1,004, 588, 4,212,
Coins and Bars are soaring, India, China, Europe, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey, USA.
As Paul Craig Roberts (Link: www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/08/01/king-world-news-interviews-pcr-gold-...) has repeatedly pointed out, the gold price is being kept down by massive use of uncovered short selling, during slack trading periods. Why is the US dollar high? The US economy has stagnated/declined since the 2008 financial meltdown, unemployment is high, wage growth is non-existent and the job market is anemic. The US national debt is $18 trillion and growing. Auto sales are propped up with subprime auto loans while share prices of large corporations are inflated because companies are using cheap money from the FED (read US taxpayers) to buy back their own stock, reducing the number the outstanding shares, thus driving the stock price higher. In addition, US taxpayers are spending $ trillions on military disasters stretching from the Levant, to Caspian Basin, Persian Gulf, China Sea (Obama’s Asia Pivot), Indian Ocean, Horn of Africa (KSA proxy war on Yemen), the Maghreb and most recently , E Europe and Russian border. This is hardly the behavior of a healty economy. The entire US economy is a proverbial house of cards which, one day is going to implode. This will make the Great Depression look like a picnic in comparison. Gold is going to explode.
Dude, Tyler broke that shit long before Paul Craig Roberts was talking about it.
I'm starting to like the recurrent sound of "beep, beep, beep".........
I'm actively buying silver hand over fist (some on credit).
Here's a nice recent article from an EW dude I respect: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/avi-gilburt-doubles-down-gold-is-going-...
Just sent my daughter a 100oz RCM bar.
on edit: after perusing the web, I am starting to notice shortages/and/or later shipping dates.
Don't be late for your date fellas.
Reason for the plummeting commodities prices is basic, and also explains why the Chinese, Russian, Brazilian, Australian, etc markets are all suffering, and why they're experiencing horrendous inflation, depreciating currencies. IMF 2010 Bretton Woods III agreement. Asset Backed Currencies.
The US / Cabal is intentionally destroying the global onslaught by the rest of the world, saying they are sick of the fraud and the phony money coming out of the US / Cabal, they want to return the world to a more stable / honest money system. Why do you think AIIB, BRICS Bank, CIPS, etc were created and nearing full implementation? To bypass the crime syndicate of the BIS, WB, IMF, SWIFT, US, etc,
You can't look at prices of ASSETS without looking at the implications... the US is trying to destroy asset prices, to destroy the argument of sound money, asset backed currencies. Ultimately, the US will lose, and because the US is being such a prick to the rest of the world at this time, and throughout history actually, the rest of the world will SHUN the US once the new financial network is enabled.
Then you will see a global resurgence and currencies take on their proper values, and you will see Gold / Silver / Oil / etc take on their fair market values, and you will see USD is toilet paper.
That's why the price of Gold / Silver / Oil are down, and why currencies of nations which want to back their currencies with these assets are not deteriorating. It's SABOTAGE. And it's amazing no one is talking about it.
The World gace the US till sometime in September 2015 to get the IMF 2010 agreement implemented, or go fuck off. I think the Cabal plans to crash the system just before such an implementation is completed, and in their wishes, before the BRICS have a chance to initialize the new financial network. I think the BRICS are rushing like mad to get the new system in place by end of August, at the latest, to cut off the Cabal plan to collapse the global system.
Buy Gold / Silver and food. Either way, they are going to be useful in the not too distant future, through BRICS or through collapse.
in the not too distant future. What a stupid comment. Gold bugs have been saying that for years. How long do you plan on keeping your food ?
Actually this article is fine. We beat up on Simon because what he says is so obvious to us already but there is merit to what he does sometimes. I had a great afternoon dealing with the grubbermint. First I had to go the Department of Public Safety and Mayhem to submit a self-certification medical form in order to keep my CDL. There are no fees for that hassle but it means you have to stand in line with people that you don't want to stand in line with. You have time to tihink and I'm not one of those guys who needs to play on phone. I'll post something when I get home because nothing is THAT important. WTF? Zombies. And then you have your populace of morons who despite having technology at their fingertips still manage to bring in the wrong paperwork and fuck the whole thing up. I alway fill that shit out ahead of time when I have to go see the Vogons.
After that, I had to go to Department of Motor Vehicle Services to renew some tabs for my truck that I don't put many miles on.($52) The DVS is conveniently located six miles across town and you have to deal with traffic to get there. When you get there you get to take a number and have a seat.(at least) You get to observe more people having problems with the Vogons. A guy starts wonder if all of this paperwork is even neccessary. You get to listen to some interesting stuff go on. Finally, you get to pay for the whole experience and get two stickers.
I thought about my experience of observing people today. Then I realized that I am regularly at both of those places for either vehicle title transfers or the bullshit with the FMCSA. If you have a CDL then you know what I mean.
I don't have a lot of faith in humanity because that is what I see at the DMV or DPS. It is a depressing scene because that is a true cross section of the people whom you live around. I was depressed for being a compliant slave myself. Is this all we are? We are just going to fill out paperwork improperly and then give the govt money that they let us have and then devalue?
I will admit something and some folks will get what I am saying. I actually don't know the price of gold, silver or platinum right now nor do I really care to. Did gold go to zero? If you want to play in the metals it's not worth watching every second of bullshit "trade" charts. If metals go lower we just keep buying until we have it all and production shuts down. Honestly, there are a lot of us who have been stacking for a long time now. No one really knows how much we have in aggregate so they?(Fuck You Bernanke) Lots of mines shutting down now I hear.
If they beat the shit out the PM markets too much we will just go batshit crazy on a buying spree of physical and blow the phyzz market up.
Where is the metal bitch?
zh, you and your cohorts will be safer with your reputation if you stick to news reporting. You can't keep posting just anything about gold.
We're actually at a level of mistrust of politicians and bankers (i.e. martial law wouldn't surprise us) that gold doesn't seem safe (they're going to take it). Where's safety? Land and houses... which are severely overvalued, but the lazy politico-bank-elites would have harder work to confiscate and maintain. When the paper is worthless and the gold is taken, your real estate will still exist despite being severely devalued against the currency. Own stuff that is real and practical for living - land and houses and tools. Perhaps gold companies (stocks) would work, but the government is going to nationalize those during martial law, and if you profit too much in gold stocks that will probably be used for the bail-in. Stay out of the banks and brokerages. We're beyond the gold stage because we're beyond trust in property rights. But houses and land will require more effort to take - my opinion.
Gold will go under $1000 for certain, probably under $900 and maybe even under $800.
Never the less, once I can buy TWO 1-ounce gold coins for under the $2000 limit that would tip the government I just bought some.. I plan to start. I don't need to nail the bottom to do well over the next 5 years.
OK when it goes under $1000 you can share with me where you found it (not paper) for sale.
How can this guy write an article on gold when he hasn't a clue how to use gold.
Why are there no articles on how to actually use and profit from gold?
To me and I have been banging on about this for years now, SME’s and many other small businesses, and even to some extent individuals are missing out precisely because they simply do not understand gold and are so set in a mindset that precludes any thoughts that mean a deviation from their thinking locks on the currency they use and allows absolutely no lateral thinking.
Let me put it this way.
Gold can create wealth faster than stocks bonds or currency.
Gold can enable you to accumulate wealth tax free
Gold although it pays no interest can grow in quantity faster than other currencies.
You should from an early age think of gold as your primary currency, think of the dollar in terns of gold, think of the yen in terms of gold or the euro, the fascist plastic fake ponzi scam voucher, if you must, in fact all currencies anywhere in the world.
Now I know I am aiming this at business, and I have a business, but gold is the basis, of everything I do, and ALL income is turned into physical gold.
But how do you use this.
First, if you are a small business and have staff, then you should seriously consider as a first step setting up an offshore corporation, which is duly registered and to be operated as an outsourcing company.
Mine is based in Quezon City Manila; in fact I have many now.
It is cheap, easy to do and all you need are the services of a good local Law Firm.
The important thing is that this outsourcing company is 100% under the jurisdiction of the country it’s registered in.
You can own virtually 100% of the shares, and even be a director, (Philippines) without setting foot there. But ensure that the shares are owned by the individuals and NOT the company you own. Otherwise it could be classed as a subsidiary.
Put in place an outsourcing agreement, between your business in the US and the new company. You will be the one and only client, and the SLA, can be made to tailor exactly what you need.
I have an outsourcing company that under its SLA (Service Level Agreement) means I have to pay it a minimum each month for 50 staff employed; even though not a single employee has ever been hired.
It also allows the outsourcing company to waive any payment at its discretion.
Next, work with a gold broker that is very reputable in HK SG or even Manila, and set up another offshore company, this time as an outsourcing and Management Company, and this tasked to charge management fees on behalf of the shareholders of the outsourcing company say in Manila (you), and to invest the proceeds into physical gold.
In this manner, your entire business income gets flushed through the system and into physical gold held offshore.
Never sell any gold, It is very easy to arrange that the gold is collateralized and any bank in Asia will issue you with the currency of your choice.
I buy gold every quarter and in 10 oz bars and store still sealed with original certification. Mostly Perth Mint, and as a regular customer get very good treatment, I also store in two places now and collateralize the gold through a private finance company, that has no banking licence.
If you get enough gold you will soon find the right people in HK or SG to help you out on that.
All gold purchase are allocated as stock purchases, including metals, electrical cables, plastic and aluminium forms and tubes, and metal and plastic casings together with circuit boards and semi conductors.
The list is not broken down to identify quantities, and under the contract, the purchase orders are at the sole discretion of the buying department of the management company and they are not disclosed under a strict NDNC agreement.
As a final step I have a UK company off the shelf, no bank account, one director, one shareholder, under $25 to set up, no telephone, no website, no email address, non trading, no dividends paid no shares bought or sold, files non trading accounts each year and has one asset.
A contract to control all the above and if deemed necessary to set in motion the disposal and liquidation of all gold and companies and have the entire proceeds sent to UK. And not living in the UK, there is no tax to pay.
Result is that since 2007, after setting this up at the beginning, I have now seen physical gold quantity grow at a compound rate of 14.3% per quarter up to June 15.
All tax free, bureaucracy free reporting free and not a fucking damned thing IRS or anyone else can do to stop me doing my way. It is out of their jurisdiction. All invoices are issued and payments collected and handled by our outsourced invoicing department.
45% of the gold is now collateralized to provide cash flow in the form of unsecured loans to me and the outsourcing company, I take no salary, dividends or cash from any company I have or control. I pay no taxes nor do any companies.
The US $ has risen against a basket of 58 currencies I use at a compound rate of 7.2% since Jan 2013, and a compound rate of 7.75 % since Jan 2014 and 11.7 % since Jan 2015.
Since 22 May 15 $US is rising at 12.8% PA
Since 16 Jun 15 rising at 14.4% PA
Since 25 Jun 15 rising at 15.8% PA against a basket of 58 currencies.
Its accelerating, but gold against other currencies ex $ is 19 % lower than against the $US since Jan 2013.
So where is the gold price crash?
On the other hand, it means I now favor US for all business and being paid in $US as that now buys me far more quantity of gold, which accounts for my gold holding rising at fastest pace ever. I don’t care a flying fuck what the $ is against gold, I just buy every quarter using every cent of income and I never sell, ever. No bank anywhere will refuse my collateral and my collateral only rows larger and never shrinks. Its value per unit never changes, only the ponzi fiats change.
Remember, all fucking bankers are committed to devaluing your labor stored in fiat by inflation. They can’t print gold
If you need help, can help you get up your offshore set up running. Let me know
If you are a private individual, set up a corporation to manufacture widgets, and outsource the design and manufacture and to try to claim tax relief against the investment you make into your widget making company. The rest is the same, you just buy stock offshore (gold) and the design is taking forever.
Fuck the IRS and Fuck the Bankers
How does that make sense ? Dont value it in paper currency ? So if you buy gold at 1500 and it goes to 1000 and you have to sell it to pay for taxes or for groceries then you have lost money ! ! ! ! Gold is so over
How does that make sense ? Dont value it in paper currency ? So if you buy gold at 1500 and it goes to 1000 and you have to sell it to pay for taxes or for groceries then you have lost money ! ! ! ! Gold is so over
On the other hand you can buy it now at $1100 and sell it later for $1500 and buy more burgers.
On the front page, a correct disclosure of the article's source/author(s)should read:
Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog, on 08/04/2015 20:30 -0400,
NOT
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/04/2015 20:30 -0400.
I'd appreciate if you would change how you currently misuse that byline. It would save readers a few clicks into crap like this, and you would have a better handle on a realistic valuation of some of the shit you publish.
I think it is going to $800US......Gold goes up and down like everything else.
I think a better store of value is a classic car.
Unless you are buying gold for industrial use,
gold is waste of good fiat.
If a great devaluation of my country's dollar should occur, my gold will help me pay off my mortgage. If it should not occur, my heirs will have PM keepsakes.