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US Recession Imminent As Factory Orders Plunge For 8th Consecutive Month
For the 8th month in a row, US factory orders fell YoY. Down 6.2% in June, this is the longest streak of declining factory orders outside of a recession in history. MoM, factory orders rose 1.8% - as expected - the most since May 2014 but historical orders and shipments were revised lower. Much of the MoM gain was driven by a 21% rise in defense aircraft shipments. Inventories contonue to rise leaving inventories-to-shipments ratios at cycle highs.
Would have been considerably worse if not for a 21% rise in Defense aircraft orders... thank the Keynesian gods for war!!!
Charts: Bloomberg
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Let's not forget that US inflation numbers are completely fake - so real US GDP is much, much lower. We have been in a recession or depression since 2008:
The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
What is the Chapwood Index?
"The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/inaccurate-statistics-and-threa...
If one used real inflation numbers, the economoy is 20-25% smaller than it was in 2000, let alone 2007, with maybe only one real positive GDP year, 2005 or 2006, at the height of the housing bubble.
I didn't realize imminent meant going back seven years.
No no no no no NO GODDAMMIT! It's bullish. Always is. Always will be. Just BTFD.
So I had doubts about Shadowstats, want to believe it, but have doubts. The chapwood index, however, I have a lot of trouble disbelieving. If that index is correct, then we truly have been in a depression since 2007/08. So, presuming we've been hiding our depression since then... to what ends? It seems the world was actually going fine for a while under the pretense of U.S. "Recovery", but if we hit another recession here I presume that lie will be laid bare for all to recognize.
So, to what end are we hiding our next-great-depression state?
Keeps the guillotines quiet.
The longer you lie to people, the greater their wrath.
no just the more extreme reality TV that you need to keep them occupied. It will be interesting to see what they do to top Kaitlyn....
The recessions have never ended...everything is fake and propped up with more debt. This is a massive depression masked over by QE, EBT, and lies upon more lies of every economic statistic imaginable.
Nuubee - Shadowstats is correct too.
I'm not saying they're not, but their method makes it harder to believe them. Chapwood, however, puts the lie to power in a nearly impossible-to-deny fashion.
Yes. John Williams does go into detail. He explains about hedonics etc., and yes it is difficult to fathom but we can blame the government for that. Incredibly, the govt says that when steak gets too expensive we will buy ground beef and therefore it is not considered inflation.
1958--so who can now afford ground beef/mystery meat/pink slime?
Gosh, who got elected in 2008? Who promised to fundementally change things?
When you want to collapse a system it's best to blow sunshine uppeople's asses until you don't. It increases the shock and the willingness to do anything to restore "order".
We've been off the cliff since late 2008. Time to hand over the anvil.
Don't need an index to tell me we never recovered from '08. Just drive around with eyes wide open.
I completely agree. I've lived in Southern California for 30 years now. The businesses that folded as a result of 2007/08 are *still* gone, those buildings they occupied are *still* empty. This has literally been normalized to this point. Even in wealthier areas, I see whole blocks that had luxury auto dealerships that have been closed for nearly a decade now. The numbers are a lie, no doubt.
But you aren't counting all the Quinoa and Kale sandwich shops that opened named after Obama and Hillary.
I remember seeing 3 blocks of dealerships all gone near San Bernardino about 3 years ago. It opened my eyes even wider than they were. If you can't sell cars in SoCal, there's a problem.
FORWARD SOVIET!
So you're now stating what I already read between the lines for many posters here.
Can you elaborate why you found/find Shadowstats hard to believe or had doubts, but Chapwood not so much?
Because except that there are now two voices instead of a lone one, I am stumped at the perceived difference.
I don't see why the OnePartyMedia just can't continue to claim recovery regardless of what some stats purport. Many of the most important indicators (Labor Participation Rate, Median Income, Unemployment rate (1980 methodology), hasn't supported a recovery for 6 years and yet a sizable minority (Maybe 40%) actually believe Obama and Co has saved us from GW's "Great Recession." I suppose if a GOProg wins the Maximum Leader position in Nov16, a recession/depression will be announced shortly thereafter...
Do you renounce you pledge of allegiance to the Fascist-Socialist Republic?
They called the last one "The Great Depression". This one has be labled as "The Great Perpetual Recovery". Perception MGNT 4401, thats upper level to you freshman and sophomoric dwebs. It has prerequisite requirements of Math 3341: Gobbels Statistical Modeling and COMM: 4201 Advanced Propaganda Techniques. Now get another student loan and shut up and sign here.
Not quite.
They called it depression at the time to downplay it as minor compared to regular recessions.
It only was named Great Depression after it had ended.
"defense aircraft shipments"
at some point you gotta export stuff that contributes to a growing, developing world, rather than blowing up the world.
demand is pretty limited longterm otherwise!!
just sayin'
Oh, we're upgrading from a depression to a recession? Finally some good news.
What's the statute of limitations on "recession imminent"?
We don't have to make anything anymore. We have facebook.
*like*
pods
Pods,
We make war. And bubbles. That is all.
we throw sand in the sand box and blow bubbles with bubble mix we stole from the other kids at school.
Why didn't I get my " Before Leahman "
Let's pretend it matters
Those new f35s are ready to go..so that is the payday I bet...
You mean those F35's which lose dogfights to 30 year old F16's? You mean the $1 Trillion F35 program that was an epic boondoggle?
That's what happens when you build an F-105 Thunderchief with curves.
I got stuck on that link for a half hour. Good stuff!
pods
They're the best.
It is not a deflationary cycle it is a free money cycle. When money is free you can drill mine explore to your hearts content. When demand falls there is no place for all that newly produced commodity to go except down. Oops. Can't wait to see the jobs reports out of the Bakken. At least the McDonald's worker (if even he is still employed) will be making $15 hr.
It's the Obama economy..... This year is worse than last year, but much better than next year.
exactly, when it comes to unfavourable categories - we should be comparing to next year, this way it will be very good for quite a long time.
core capital goods orders revised down - again - from advance report (out july 27th)
Advance Core durable orders
april ... -0.7%
may ... -0.4%
june ... +0.9%
Full report (todays)
april ... -0.7%
may ... -0.8%
june ... +0.7%
Does this mean a September Rate Hike?
What is it- 3 quarters down before they declare "recession"? And that was 8 months for June. We just finished July. We are HERE and we are just waiting for the liars to tell us where we are.
They fake numbers so that even a dead company will have high stock values right up to the day its doors are locked in bankruptcy.
Netflix doesnt need factories.
buy buy buy!
Netflix, Facebook, Google, Amazon need retards, and there are plenty of those around.
Things are great.
If you can't take a bad joke, you shouldn't be in manufacturing.
Thank dog I sold out in the 1980's.
Now I've got,no inventory, little overhead, and a booming biz in the middle of a depression.
Whats not to like ?
It could be worse. They're running out of beer in American liberals favorite socialist country.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jul/31/beer-shortages-loom-in-vene...
http://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2015/08/03/reinforcing-failure/
Markets are up based on M-o-M.
Civil War 2 is right on time
The Revolutionary War could be considered a civil war. But what Yankees refer to as the Civil War was actually the War of Northern Aggression, as the South didn't try to topple the remaining government in the US, but sought to rule themselves as the CSA.
I'll believe it when I see it
pardon my French, but imho it's mostly propaganda. specifically, so that a one-trillion-per-year "US Homeland Security" had a very little shred of fig leaf to hide behind
"support Homeland Security, yell the terrorist/rebel yell" could be the unofficial motto
just an alien/foreign opinion, mind you
hasnt US been in recession for last 5 years?
I wouldn't worry about facts right now.
an official recession concurrent with zirp. this should be fun. zee recovery with qe infinity. what a world.
Me thinks consumers is saving to buy million bucks crap shack. It used to take 10 years to save to buy but with today's prices its 50!
Crash already!! FUCK!
I tell people we are in a depression, have been for a while. The EBT cards are the new bread lines.
visit walmart.
that will make the most bullish recognize depression.
did anyone between 1929 and 1939 call it a depression? or was it referred to as a recession just like this depression is (since we can't handle the truth)?
BULLISH
(For a global financial meltdown this Sept/Oct. Warning: May cause increased chances of riots, martial law, tyranny, unconstitutional actions, and/or civil war. Your nation's results may vary)
Inventory stocks are too high, I would welcome this deceleration of factory orders in order to balance. Capacity utilization declines more, need to move the excess inventory with discounts.
You need to raise your IQ above room temp. or you missed the /s tag.
Let the layoffs begin, even with zirp its the only way out for the CFO's.
There never will be an official recession again. The Fed will hold or ease not based on US numbers but due to foreign headwinds.
The US will in the next few months more actively try and pick a war, weather Iran, Korea, Ukraine, or possibly Syria remains to be seen.
If we want to go big we will go Chinese Islands, but I dont think the Obamator and the libtards have the stomach for that.
ZH should also comment on the news today about robust auto sales for July (hint: debt) and the $3.9b dividend Fannie Mae is paying to the Treasury (hint: even less bonds to be issued).
DO YOU SEE WHAT YOU HAVE DONE YELLEN!!???? NICE JOB ASSHOLE!!!
Clearly we need to increase "defence" spending since that is saving us right now.
Or just wait for the Cackling Cunt to ride in on her broom in 2016... That will fix it, once and for all.
Auto sales are up!
After they were down.
Gasoline is down, after it was up.
I'm older. Been told that I have to eat like I'm starving and exercise like I'm a coolie. WTF?
Oh, and ride a bicycle everywhere.
And start throwing away all of my "stuff".
Things must be bad though, because everybody is fat. 'Cause they eat too much.
Where have all the workers gone? Long time passing
Where have all the workers gone? Long time ago
Where have all the workers gone?
Gone to welfare every one
Now they don’t have to earn
Now they don’t have to earn
Where have all the taxpayers gone? Long time passing
Where have all the taxpayers gone? Long time ago
Where have all the taxpayers gone?
Gone to black-markets every one
Now they don’t have to pay
Now they don’t have to pay
Looking at the chart...is this when I should buy "on the dip"?
In all the other recessions the Fed lowered interest rates, what are they going to do this time when already at zero?
Nothing a triple seasonal adjustment can't handle! From the bureau of truth
Anyone who owns & operates a small business knows we've been in recession/depression since Q4 2007. Yes there have been a couple of weak bounces up, but generally business volume is a shadow of its former self. Right side up, but running on fumes here.