This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
ADP Employment Tumbles Near 2015 Lows, Below Lowest Estimate And Down 20% On The Year
Following June's small-business-driven better-than-expected rise in ADP employment, July printed a stunningly weak 185k against expectations of 215k - the biggest miss since March. This is around the lowest level of the year and lowest since Q1 2014. It is also 20% lower than the 232K ADP print a year ago, and the weakest July print since 2013: all signs screaming QE4 a rate hike is imminent.
Sure enough small business exuberance in June turned to pessimism in July as gains rose at half the pace for firms less than 50 people. Manufacturing jobs were also weak (8k goods producing vs 178k services). The question now is what will The Fed need as an excuse to raise rates given that employment is no longer their crutch, printing below economists' lowest estimate.
From the report:
Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 59,000 jobs in July, half of the June number. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 62,000 jobs, down from 78,000 the previous month. Employment gains at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – increased sharply from June, adding 64,000 jobs in July, up from 34,000. Companies with 500-999 added 17,000 jobs after adding 28,000 jobs in June. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 47,000 jobs, almost eight times the weak 6,000 added the previous month.
Some commentary from the source which still refuses to provide unadjusted data:
"July employment growth was slower than June, but is still in line with what we have seen since the first of the year,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. “Notably, large businesses with more than 500 employees had their strongest job gains since last December and were almost double the June number.”
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but it has moderated since the beginning of the year. Layoffs in the energy industry and weaker job gains in manufacturing are behind the slowdown. Nonetheless, even at this slower pace of growth, the labor market is fast approaching full employment.”
Because crashing oil prices are "unambiguously good."
Breakdown:
And some more pretty charts:
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry
Spot the housing boom: Change in employment construction:
Saving the best for last, here is ADP "infographic":
»
- 11823 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
What excuse? J P Morgan will hire one extra employee. The Fed will raise rates. J P Morgan will fire that employee the next day.
Bush's fault.
yes. but not the way US Democrats describe it
it's simple, actually. with gold, you need to build up a treasury, a literal "war chest", and then you can afford war
with fiat, you have the option to have huge wars first, and then... have the hangover
check the three major wars that the US had after WWII. Korea brought troubles and killed the repayment plans for WWII debt. Vietnam resulted into "Nixon's Shock" and the trillion-heavy Iraq-Afghanistan-actually-all-the-ME war that Bush wanted... is the main culprit of the current sorry state of affairs
have some Freedom Fries with it
The Iraq war, while illegal and unfortunate is not the reason for the current state of affairs. We are in this mess because we have been on a 45 year debt binge which went exponential after the year 2000.
Certainly blowing up a shit ton of munitions purchased with a credit line- had something to do with it.
We need to learn to kill people frugally, as cheaply as possible.
sadly, the opposite is true. first the ammo maker convinces Uncle Sam to buy ammo, and then Uncle Sam is pressured to spend it somewhere
first the US Congress buys tanks, and then silences generals that claim that they have enough tanks
first hollow-point bullets are bought, shitloads of them, and then the need for them in some abstruse agency is somehow construed
we witnessed so many such instances and scandals (remember the 500-year stocks of camo covers for the old helmet? a new one was then needed) that it's obvious... if you break your indoctrination
Vulcan bribes and then pushes Mars to war, in this system
and what is the main driver for this "debt binge"? wars and military spending. half the money that is spent worldwide
I repeat: before Korea... positive balanced budgets, debt repayments. before Vietnam, the dollar exchangeable for gold. after Iraq... your "exponential after 2000"
war is damn expensive, way more then warmongers would like you to believe
It didn't work well when the Fed raised interest rates during Great Depression I. September will be a good popcorn month.
all signs screaming QE4 a rate hike is imminent.
That's some funny shit LOL
BushCo was so dreamy.
Debt Saturation. Only takes a small pebble to start a big ass default ripple.
Puerto Rico crawfished. What about those that own PR bonds? And so on and so forth.
Of course, we have been bouncing along the bottom like a sinker for about 6 years now.
pods
@pods
Of course, we have been bouncing along the bottom like a sinker for about 6 years now.
pods
Ain't that a fact but stawks are up up and away...........................with the fairies
And you have to wonder just how long the PR situation will fester before exploding.
Funny, but I think even the bad stuff is cautiously released as to not cause ripples. The news this morning was ADP and the shit numbers, but that headline was combined with Powell saying a rate hike was not imminent in September. I really think the manipulation of information is quite detailed. Maybe it's my paranoid self, but I also think the level that people have been placated has lead to the shit labor participation numbers not leading to anyone getting too pissed off. No one I talk to believes the unemployment numbers yet there are no repercussions.
I work and prepare.
I see green shoots.....BULLISH!
Come on Yellen, get off your smelly, jelly ass and blow a hole in this recovery chrade with "THE COMING" rate hike. Put up or shut up.
Thousands upon thousands of oil patch jobs are disappearing. Mining jobs. Jobs related to commodities. Maybe they can give us all a one hour a week job- count it as a new job- get the rate to drop below 1%? Shangri fucking la.
Really at this point, who gives a fuck?
Extreme taxation with zero representation. The New America. Except, well, you can't get taxes from people with no earnings. http://thecivillibertarian.blogspot.com/2015/08/extreme-taxation-with-no...
Meaningless. The machines are running the show now. #nomoardowndays. BTFD (if there is one). FUBAR. S&P Futs up 18 fucking points on this horrible number. I give up.
The Brent is too damn low.
The previous number was also revised back down from Unicorn levels.
Must be from all the snow in July.
Ghordius- you may actually want to go back to the 90's where much of the current pillaging of the country took place. That and the slow bleeding by the federal reserve.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZzl6FwGfo
I saw, with the T.V. muted, a big green up arrow and a 185,000 number by it. That's how the sheeples saw it!
Some CBS talking head muttered, "185,000 that's up from 230,000 in June!"