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ISM Services Spikes To 10 Year Highs Despite Markit "Hope" Plunge To 3-Year Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

ISM Services soared to its highest sicne 2005 - printing 60.2, beating expectations by the most on record - with the biggest MoM jump in employment in history. Does that sound in any way realistic? Markit Services PMI printed above its preliminary level at 55.7 for a small bounce after 3 straight months lower. However, more problematic is the plunge in 'hope' as busines outlook tumbles to its lowest since June 2012. As Markeit notes, while the headline may be encouraging, "dig a little deeper and there are causes for concern which could worry policymakers into deferring any tightening of policy."

 

Utter insanity in ISM data...

 

Which breaks down as follows...

 

While Services PMI bounced very modestly...

 


But as Markit notes, it's not all ponies and unicorns...

“At face value, the sustained robust expansion signalled in July augurs well for a rate hike later in the year, possibility as early as September assuming the labour market continues to improve in the meantime.

 

“However, dig a little deeper and there are causes for concern which could worry policymakers into deferring any tightening of policy.

 

Growth has clearly slowed compared to this time last year, and a further drop in service sector companies’ optimism about the year ahead to one of the lowest seen over the past five years indicates that firms are expecting growth to slip further in coming months. Hiring could soon wane unless business confidence picks up again soon.

 

“The survey also illustrates how the strong dollar and falling oil prices add to the argument for holding off with any tightening of policy. Rates of inflation of both firms’ input costs and selling prices eased in July amid lower import costs and falling global commodity prices. The strong dollar is also continuing to hurt export performance, dampening economic growth prospects.”

*  *  *

So which survey do you believe? Best Services industry in 10 years or lowest services business outlook in 3 years.. ansd Gallup economic confidence at its weakest since October?

As divergences hit record highs...

h/t @ericbeebo

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:09 | 6393167 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

When you start telling lies, it's hard to keep them consistent.  So fraudulent economic data seldom make sense.

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:14 | 6393184 XAU XAG
XAU XAG's picture

Hope = Rope

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 13:15 | 6393966 poor fella
poor fella's picture

actually, it's not a lie if it's 'better' for 'us' if we believe it.

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 11:59 | 6393552 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Chrome plated dog turds for everybody. It's all funhouse mirrors for the sheep.....

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:12 | 6393175 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

fraud creation at banks ("services") now highest since the last bubble.  yeeehawwww!!!

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:16 | 6393181 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

They can't even get their own bullshit stories straight. Trade deficits report tells us that exports are getting killed by the "strong dollar" and ISM tells us exports are growing. Which one is it? 

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:14 | 6393183 dimwitted economist
dimwitted economist's picture

I Be's Hoping... (to get me some MORE Gold!) Cheap.. LOL!

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:16 | 6393186 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture
These Hillary Supporters Want Her to Repeal the Bill of Rights if She's Elected President

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiZFXkmofgI

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:17 | 6393196 ANestIOS
ANestIOS's picture

these are the just because conditions where you get a -5% in 5 days in SPX index price  

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:24 | 6393213 vq1
vq1's picture

glass half full.... of shit

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:29 | 6393230 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

 

summer IS the peak timeof year for bartenders, waitresses, maids, home watchers, and lawn care....too bad the damn foreigners are taking all these new rebound-expansion-jobs!!  /s

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 11:17 | 6393364 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

Bloat in the 'services' sector is a fairly reasonable indicator, but that's short-term.   Bitch-slap reality is the 30+ year (easy) credit cycle itself that is for now, slowly unwinding.

 

 

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:45 | 6393266 starman
starman's picture

they'll stop lying soon as you start beleiving them.

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 10:53 | 6393290 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

Has everyone forgotten how to spell today??

 

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 11:00 | 6393319 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

'Lag time'...?

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 11:11 | 6393346 youngman
youngman's picture

I think there are a lot more Cats out there..trying to export ..but no one is buying...but bartenders do not make a strong economy

Wed, 08/05/2015 - 11:32 | 6393419 Kina
Kina's picture

Kind a pointless discussion when the data being used is so corrupted/falsified that it could be orders of magnitude wrong.

Shouldn't they go sto Shadowstats first for the real data, then discuss the future. 

 

Of course the new future is here now, not in the future, this IS the new normal.

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