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GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Sees Q3 Growth At A Laughable 1%
The Atlanta Fed's Q1 and Q2 GDP forecasts were virtually spot on with what the BEA ultimately reported. Which is why if its accuracy persists, not only the Fed, but Wall Street strategists suddenly have a very big headache on their hands.
Moments ago, the Atlanta Fed just released its much anticipated first estimate for Q3 GDP. It was a doozy, at just 1.0%, or more than 2% below the consensus sellside estimate.
If this is confirmed, not only are all rate hike bets off, but one may as well start the countdown to the recession, and more importantly, QE4.
From the Atlanta Fed:
Latest forecast — August 6, 2015
The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 1.0 percent on August 6. The model projects that lower inventory investment will subtract 1.7 percentage points from third quarter real GDP growth. Real GDP grew 2.3 percent in the second quarter according to the advance estimate from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
In short, if confirmed, not only is this a disaster for the economy, but an even bigger disaster for the Fed which has now pegged itself into a rate hike hole, and can only unpeg it by destroying what little credibility it has left.
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No problemo, wait until you see the 4qtr!!!
Bout time GDP got the shocker, the FED and their policies have been giving it to humanity for a long fucking time.
pods
The Dear Leader Obama Recovery Summer Number Six®
But this is without QE3. Many here said that the economy would implode without QE3.
Best guess what's going on...the front end trouble starts with declining population growth in a system premised on perpetual growth of everything (# of consumers and consumption, amount of debt, ever lower rates) – the middle is mounting debt, leverage, manipulation to hide / camouflage the delta between slowing growth and anticipated / projected growth (the growth necessary to make the debts repayable and new investments profitable) – the back end have price dislocations as finance and economics have completely deviated from one another before eventually (likely soon) tragically recoupling.
I believe it all starts globally here…
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-imminent-demographic-collapse.html
and domestically here…
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/06/0ne-simple-chart-explains-great.html
QE never stopped. Then there is ZIRP.
GFY Borkenkäfer.
QE baby...raise rates...do QE. And print 4 ur lives baby.
1% in the 4th quarter. Revised downward in the 1st quarter of 2016.
Welcome to the next leg of the Depression 2.0
Lets have an infomal poll amongst Zhers.
Hows your, or your bosses biz doing right now ?
Let me help you with that, Winston...
Vote UP is biz is good
Vote DOWN if biz is bad.
Betcha the DOWN votes will beat the UP votes by at least 3 to 1 margin.
stable (barely) medical practice......
...expecting disaster Oct 1 when the new ICD-10 codes start being used. If we get the typical roll out, we could see wide spread failure in medical practices...our office has been told we should be sure we have adequate lines of credit...for when payment delays start.
Some of the insurers are said to be licking their chops . They will now have an excuse to delay or deny payments.
LV, the insurers made a power play here in WA a few years ago in dental. My wife said screw it, I'm not playing and now she is all cash (credit and checks) and doing very well.
I guess it was easier for her to cut loose the insurers because we have two incomes. But her patient base is now wealthier and smarter, and the sentence "what does my insurance cover" never is spoken.
I thank god every day I took dentistry over medicine. I don't know how you guys do it.
I remember one day in the last year my GP had a moment of weakness and said Rubbish, I like you, you don't listen to the garbage I spew about taking meds, you see we are married to big pharma and we have to push this stuff. You could see the sell out in his eyes, all those years of wanting to actually help people and he had become a slave to the system.
I don't understand how pharma can rule his world, so can a Dr. explain please? Where's the beef for him? A big cut of each prescription?
Not a doc here but I am in pharma.
A lot of doctors are forbidden to mess around with anything not blessed by the AMA. Happens to Lyme docs. Licensing boards are very powerful.
Big organizations or boards get $$ from pharma to keep docs in line. I guess regular docs get an easy flowchart and are backed up by the AMA when it comes to pills, so it is easier for them but direct compenstation is not like it used to be.
It is all a racket though. Most things are.
Pills don't fix shit.
pods
I am in pharma, too, for 25 years.
Pills paint over things. I will never take, or allow my family to take, many of the drugs I see prescribed today. What has happened in the area os "ADHD" is appalling. And don't get me started about serotonin uptake/modifying drugs. If the world wasn't crazy before they have many pills that have fixed that.
Thankfully most of what I see has not made it to market yet. But most of what I do see in the commercial realm scares the fuck out of me. Mind altering chems, to statins (diabetes), any and all drugs to supress your immune system.
It just goes on and on. I see older relatives and they put Elvis to shame with what they take.
I went in for bloodwork and filled out the little sheets. Doc looked at me when there was "NA" under the medication spot like I had 3 eyes.
Awful stuff we create, but at the moment, making fishing rods won't pay the bills.
pods
I am in pharmaceutical development for over 40 years. My recommendation is exercise/eat well, use aspirin, checken soup, cognac and ginger ale as needed--thats it.
"Pills don't fix shit."
3.5 Mill of Bystolic allows me to enjoy my bowl of ice cream, load ammo, buy Gold, shoot shit with a smile.
Some good shit right there and I tried all the rest.
I'm not FAT, just Husky :)
I'm up 10% yoy last 3 years in my commercial service bus. People with money aren't slowing down on spending that much. Large and small pop shops are hanging in there. EBT grocers are seeing a brisk business 1st week of the month.
Raise your prices, stay afloat. Heaven help the lower 50%.
Gold Bitchez......I pick up pennies
Any relation between this Fed and the Fed that is sabre-rattling about raising interest rates? Jus wunrin...
Is that pre-adjustment or post-adjustment?
Time for triple seasonal adjustments, or fuckit and go straight to five year plans.
tightening in...2018?
tightening in...... never.
There fixed that for you.
kind of like that cesspool in between Yellen's thighs? ok got it.
So if the Atlanta fed sees GDP at 1%, in reality we are probably looking at -5%. Give or take a few million hedonically adjusted iPads.
Hedonic iPads sound a LOT more comfortable than these darn Depends.
That a new flavor ?
if confirmed, not only is this a disaster for the economy, but an even bigger disaster for the Fed which has now pegged itself into a rate hike hole, and can only unpeg it by destroying what little credibility it has left.
They can print moar credibility, y'kno.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ilcRS5eUpwk
seconds after Q3 GDP release...
Bullard: "we are so fucked"
Yellen: "I wish..."
Gotta love the Atlanta FED, but I'm just amazed at the lack of nailgun accidents.......
So Lockhart was just blowing hot air up our asses.
How do you like that wobble Yen ?
The spinning top is losing velocity.
history mat not repeat, but it sure as hell feels like its rhyming with 1987.
It sure does Winston.
Well, it appears the wad has officially been shot, boys. The pooch has been screwed. The shark has been jumped.
Locally, we got a shitload of euro-style traffic round-a-bouts, crosswalks in strange places that light up like disneyland, and the obligatory community art installations.
I imagine future peoples will look upon these "stimulus projects" with wonder, they same way we might approach Stonehenge today.
The only problem with Atlanta's numbers is that they are usually closest to the truth...ouch...
I love the truthiness of the GDPNow forecast (and the fact that it's been more accurate than Street forecasts for two quarters in a row), but it's a volatile number until it has more data to input. Last quarter it was forecasting 0.8% growth at the end of May, and eventually ticked up to around the 2.2% level by the end of June. In July, it bounced around the 2.2-2.4% level, before settling out at 2.3%.
I can confirm that for you....business SUCKS!
weather related: today in the northeast, its 72 degrees as opposed to the norm of 74
this will impact GDP by 1.5% points
anyone remember reagan bitching about weather? me neither. we had growth rates of 5-6-7-8% & were banging-out jobs #'s of 400k, 500k, 600k, 700k, 800k. oh, and it was colder & heavier snow fall on record V obama's 2 terms.
"72 degrees as opposed to the norm of 74" Yeah but the national Weather service is fudging the numbers on the weather. It's actually much worse, but they are trying to avoid a panic - a panic which would cause the stock market to drop.
Good thing its just Atlanta! Maybe its just MARTA ridership? Green shoots everywhere else!
Must be due to heat in the summer
QE 4 in the bag ! Place yer bets ! Buy everythings on the fukkin dip !
Maybe they buy Corporate bond etf next. WTFnot.
Maybe ZIRP is the problem and until interest rate are increasd dying companies will remain on life-support. Time to pull the plug.
It is all reverse psychology. Release bad news like this from the Fed and the stock market rebounds because they then can assume more QE/NIRP. Managing perceptions?
Yes, but the rope of confidence and credibility tightens every time those perceptions are managed. Cannot go on indefinitely without a price exacted.
Exactly! +1
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. …Let me turn now to the economic situation. Boy, I think it has been a while since we were three and a half hours into the meeting before we got to the staff forecast. MR. STOCKTON. The GDP is a little smaller than it was at the start of the meeting. [Laughter]
MS. YELLEN. …The residential housing sector has now shrunk so much that the only real assurance that it will ever stabilize seems to be the fact that construction spending cannot go negative. This is just about the only zero lower bound that is working on our side. [Laughter]
CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Do you think there’s an aggregation externality in liquidity—getting activity going again so that people issue and so on? That would be one reason why it would stimulate additional activity. MR. EVANS. Yeah. It seems like a hope at the moment. And I’m not opposed to hoping a lot. [Laughter]
VICE CHAIRMAN DUDLEY. I think “later this winter” does provide an endpoint. I am not sure how long “soon” is. MR. WARSH. It is always winter somewhere. [Laughter]
MS. MOSSER. It’s possible there’s a workaround for those sorts of things. But if there is, we’d have to start it tomorrow. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. We could just acquire Fannie and Freddie directly. [Laughter]
MS.YELLEN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Winston Churchill once remarked that nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result. [Laughter] Well, exhilaration may be an exaggeration, but I am at least hugely relieved that our financial system appears to have survived a near-death experience. And I am optimistic that you will not be the chairman who presided over the second Great Depression. [Laughter]
Federeal Reserve anno 2009
It just goes to show ya... nobody really ever has a fucking clue what's goin' on.
GDP = GOD DAMN POLITICIANS!!!!
Why do those "folks" in the south insist on telling the truth? It has not served them well in the past.
How many months since Quantitative Easing installment #3 (officially) ended...?
Good grief...repeat after me...
GDP is meaningless and ZH should stop talking about it.
Well, it's laughable that even their own inflated GDP formula showed such a pathetic result.
It's not meaningless. It's how you tell how stupid someone is by how much faith they place in it.
Actually it's a damn good indicator, if you know see how to use it.
It could be a debate question for th cattle call this evening.
"How much faith do you have in the GDP as an indicator of the health of the US economy?"
THe higher they score it the worst they would be as POTUS
They simply didn't print enough. Monetary policy is too tight. Interest rates are too high.
Shocking only to Janet and Company.
That's why she's Yellen.
As someone with a memory (and therefore with a brain) pointed out earlier: q2 gdp forecast started with 0.8% and ticked up later to 2.2-2.4%. The root mean squared erro of the forecasts 3 monthy before the release is 2.2 %. See the FAQ here:https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx
GDP has been negative most of the past 3 decades. They cook the books so badly an idiot could figure it out.
Virtually NO one - even ZH til I pointed it out several months agoc- paid attention to the GDP Now project at the Atlanta Fed. Hell - even Bloomberg relegated them to a fucling footnote first time they cited their Q 1 projection. I doubt that the Fed Governors study it and fully expect all funding to be removed real soon.