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Is This Why Bonds Are Soaring?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Secondly, it is time to be shot of the long end of the US bond market and we wish this morning to sell the September T-note future at or near to 126 3/4. 

 

We can imagine the front month future trading to 118-119 over the course of the next several months while at the same time we shall be willing to risk only  1 1/2 points to the upside.

 

The top has been formed over the course of the last several months and we are willing to be short even ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation Report."

- Dennis Gartman, The Gartman Letter, Aug 6th 2015

 

 

Perfect market timing indicator once again. Oh, and, time to buy.

 

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Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:47 | 6397908 LawsofPhysics
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gotta love it when someone rings a bell...

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:53 | 6397944 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

It's equally impressive to be wrong 100% of the time as it is to be right 100% of the time.  A real skill.

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:58 | 6397977 migra
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Even amongst CNBS people, Gartman is a remarkable dumbass. 

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:16 | 6398073 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

"Secondly, it is time to be shot"

 

Stopped right there!

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:35 | 6398170 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Sometimes Typo's are classic.

If this was the 2nd trade tip, what was the Firstingly?

 

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 14:17 | 6398365 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

Tyler's freudian slip typo.

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 21:11 | 6399691 philipat
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"Pleasantly ignorant" but still collecting subscriptions?

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:47 | 6397909 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Well if Gartman says it, there must be a bond collapse coming......

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:50 | 6397925 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Maybe he really meant short the yield.  Anybody?  Bueller?

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:48 | 6397910 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

The G-man striketh again!  The man is money...every time I tell you.

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:49 | 6397912 stant
stant's picture

Where's hank tanks in da street Paulson ? Somebody get him on da line!!

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:50 | 6397927 Fahque Imuhnutjahb
Fahque Imuhnutjahb's picture

Come on Gartman put a long term short on Ag, baby needs a new pair of shoes! 

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:50 | 6397930 Big Brother
Big Brother's picture

Meet the new Gartman, same as the old Stopler.

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:53 | 6397943 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

OT: Ventured over to the dark side.  CNBC is running a "bracket" of which of 8 tankng blue chips are the best buy.  Just when you thought there was no place lower for the shills to go...

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:59 | 6397972 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Never understood that "I liked it higher, so I love it now" logic.   Like saying "I sorta liked this yogurt dated Aug. 27th, but I'd really love to find some Oikos with a May 20th expiry."

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:08 | 6397950 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the man must like having his ballz in a vise.

Listen to me Anthony. I got your head in a fuckin' vise. I'll squash your head like a fuckin' grapefruit if you don't give me a name. Don't make me have to do this, please. Don't make me be a bad guy, come on. [/Nicky Santoro]

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:27 | 6398139 H. Perowne
H. Perowne's picture

"This guy could fuck up a cup of coffee"

-Nicky Santoro

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:55 | 6397953 clade7
clade7's picture

Gartmans rosacia really flares up on the waning moon...anybody else notice that?  Perhaps its facial hemmerhoids?,

I dont know, I'm not a doctor..or a lycan, but I do have hemmerhoids, so I can comment..

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:58 | 6397970 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

he tries to hide it with his prison pussy...

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 12:57 | 6397968 CarpetShag
Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:04 | 6398001 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

oh dear....

 

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:26 | 6398047 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

119 is a pipe dream with slack global demand, but 140...perhaps so.  156 3/4 isn't a bad spot to sell Labor Day bonds.

 

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:30 | 6398151 NoVa
NoVa's picture

I share your view on long duration Treasuries.  Labor Day could be the spark; IMO, it will be the Fed rate hike that sparks the sequence of events.

after rate hike (even 25 bps) will rally dollar, leads to Emerging Market currency & equities turmoils, leads to flight to "safety" during 4Q.  

The 2 - 10 and 5 - 30 spreads will flatten significantly - a trader buddy of mine forsees 10yrT yield at 1.35, with outside chance of 1.15.  I'm selling at 135.

 

NoVa

Thu, 08/06/2015 - 13:13 | 6398060 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Someone give Gartman a bib, he's drooling all over himself again.

  "I'm pleasantly retarded, and short gold in tungsten terms."

 ~Dennis Gartman~

Sun, 08/09/2015 - 16:34 | 6399541 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

Poor Gartman can't get a break.  Proven totally wrong within one trading day.  But Tyler isn't playing entirely fair with his chart, as Gartman was talking about what he thinks will happen in September.  Since Yellen says rates will be raised so very, very slowly, a collapse in long bond pricss, even in September is unlikely.  Only if China sells heavily can that happen, and they have no incentive to do so.  Meanwhile the Fed will be secretly supporting long bond prices, as the consequences of a long bond flop would be humongous in the US. 

Fri, 08/07/2015 - 05:22 | 6400427 Rakksan
Rakksan's picture

It's time to be shot?  Always wrong Gartman. Buy more 20-30 year US Treasuries.

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