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Here Comes The Next Crisis "Nobody Saw Coming"
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures.
Strangely enough, every easily foreseeable financial crisis is presented in the mainstream media as one that "nobody saw coming." No doubt the crisis visible in these three charts will also fall into the "nobody saw it coming" category.
Take a look at this chart of state and local government debt. As we noted yesterday, nominal GDP rose about 77% since 2000. So state and local debt rose at double the rate of GDP. That is the definition of an unsustainable trend.
As noted earlier in the week, state and local taxes have soared 75%. While this would be no big deal if wages and salaries had risen by 75% in the same time frame, but earnings have barely kept pace with inflation (38% since 2000).
So state and local taxes have risen at a rate twice that of wages/salaries. State and local governments can keep raising taxes, but where's the money going to come from?
State and local government expenditures have risen faster than inflation or GDP.
Here is the context that matters: household income. This is median real income, i.e. adjusted for inflation.
Wages and salaries are barely keeping up with inflation, real household incomes are down 8.5% since 2000 and state and local government taxes and spending are rising at twice the rate of inflation--where does this lead to?
1. The bond market may choke if state and local governments try to "borrow our way to prosperity" as they did in the 2000s.
2. If state and local taxes keep soaring while wages stagnate and household income declines, households will have less cash to spend on consumption.
3. Declining consumer spending = recession.
4. In recessions, sales and income taxes decline as households spending drops. This will crimp state and local tax revenues.
5. This sets up an unvirtuous cycle: state and local governments will have to raise taxes to maintain their trend of higher spending. Higher taxes reduce household spending, which reduces income and sales tax revenues. In response, state and local governments raise taxes again. This further suppresses disposable income and consumption. In other words, raising taxes offers diminishing returns.
At some point, local government revenues will decline despite tax increases and the bond market will raise the premium on local government debt in response to the rising risks.
When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures. Given their many contractual obligations, these cuts will slice very quickly into sinews and bone.
If this doesn't strike you a crisis, please check back in a few years. It is easily foreseeable, but very inconvenient. As a result, it too will be a crisis that "nobody saw coming."
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You get in "moods" and like to come around, have fun, and vent a lil, don't cha?
LMAO.
I've tried to get along with family of the same hardcore socialist mindset (much more pompous, graceless, and ostentatious since Odumb@SS). It used to be we could drink a few beers and laugh at our differences. Now it is so serious to the survival of the USA that we can't talk reasonably, discuss our different points, or laugh (even with beer). They are agressive, they don't reason with you, and they don't care who or what gets trampled to attain their goals. The good thing is, when they push it to the brink and beyond, we will (probably, based upon Molon Labe) be armed while they will be crying for our tax revenues and worse. Friends they are not, unfortunately, even when they are blood relatives...what a sad state we are in.
Looking at the larger picture, the USA as a whole, is in serious decay. We have spent our money trying to keep a group of people from outright rebellion and rioting. It didn't work. How is it that in the early 1900's we had all the ethnic groups from the entire world in their own neighborhoods and own languages and ALL of them assimilated into a "middle class of sorts" American citizen...EXCEPT for the Blacks. I don't fault them to a larger degree considering segregation made them drink from separate fountains, piss in separate bathrooms, sit in designated bus seats, and so on...WTF? MLK was a brilliant man, he had many valid and excellent ideas and ideals...but the Blacks chose Malcom X and Louis F as their destiny. My closest and dearest friend is black, and I would give him whatever i could if he asked me or i knew his need, but he isn't part of the "hoodie & skittles" mindset. The differences in the cultural mindset of "urban" African Americans, Mexicans, and a slect other few REFUSE to assimilate into what one considers "Typical American Culture" or some such. I don't believe we can survive this, especially when you add all the ILLEGALS getting full documents without regard to the betterment of "American Social Citizenship" People don't realize that the USA had (still has but is trumped at the time) a "system" where foreign people could serve in our military for 5 years (???) and gain citizenship...that at least shows good will toward our melting pot of our cultural mindset.
I don't think we know eachother well enough, or are friendly enough, or willing to change enough to make it work. We are too different in key elements of social order and societal structure to make it work nationally. That is why we have Detroit, Baltimore, and D.C. as glaring examples of EVERY city in the US...God Bless and best of health going forward.
You had better have your assets hidden, we all know that when we starve with a Tiger, the Tiger starves last.
And where I'm from we say that you needn't have to outrun the bear, you only need to outrun the person you're with!
I not only won't feel sorry for state pensioners, i will laugh my ass off when it crashes around them. My brother is a H.S. Principal and contributes like 7% of the 100% total, the difference made up by taxpayers, into the state retirement system. I am self employed and have NO MATCHING, NO PENSION PERIOD...except for my personal choices of investments, etc. He has been doubling down as he gets close to the jumping off point. So he puts in $7,000 a year and it is matched to $100,000 if he told me the correct and true way it works (I don't knkow if this is correct, but that is what he said...either way he will be upset when it goes down). I WILL LAUGH, not shed one tear for them while i will work until i personally make that money the hard way while they take thousands a year from me for that crap...amoung many other things.
CRASH ALREADY!
Haus-Targaryen: "When this next shit explodes, I am going to lose so many facebook friends gloating about their stupidity while picking up their assets on the cheap."
That will be the least of your worries...
Gotta Blame Someone https://www.facebook.com/bama.watson.9/videos/vb.100006784955008/1665956...
I like how you separate marriage and fucking relationships. Although they have many similarities they're definitely not the same.
/s
Girlfriends fuck, wives don't, girlfriends don't get alimony, wives fucking get everything plus alimony. You are correct they are not the same, and I noted your sarc tag. Up vote here.
Girlfriends fuck, wives don't, girlfriends don't get alimony, wives fucking get everything plus alimony. You are correct they are not the same, and I noted your sarc tag. Up vote here.
All that matters is making sure NFLX doubles every two months. NFLX is your God.
WHAT KIND OF VOODOO SORCERY IS THIS?!
Indeed!
'What manner of Man are ye to summon up fire without the benefit of flint or tinder?'
Too bad William Bonzai didn't do a Geitner face replacement of John Cleese in this classic scene in 2009-2010. Returning to 500 big screens in October for 40th aniversary!
If I read this correctly the point is that the local arm of .GOV will need to spend less. And this is a crisis?
Or they will spend more (because they are stupid and its OPM) and crush the middle class ... thus the crisis implied to unfold "unforeseen" in a few years.
Regards,
Cooter
At some point local gov has to confront the local PTB, those that are the remaining taxpayers. I'd noted this collision years ago when arguing that property taxes aren't guaranteed to always go up: I actually had mine go DOWN (they've crept back up, but eventually this will meet the wall). I'd previously stated the banks as the push-back pressure, with banks holding a lot of real estate as they attempt to slowly (trying not to crash the market) unload it back out into the market.
Eventually it'll come down to the rich trying to eat the rich. At this point we can pretty much assume that the System is at, or on the verge of, full collapse.
.GOV will NEVER spend less, and he knows it.
The real crisis is at the Federal level:
The size of the U.S. fiscal gap -- $210 trillion -- is massive. It’s 16 times larger than official U.S. debt, which indicates precisely how useless official debt is for understanding our nation’s true fiscal position.
U.S. GDP currently stands at $18 trillion. Hence, the fiscal gap represents almost 12 years of GDP. The fiscal gap can also be compared with the present value of the CBO’s projection of GDP extended through the infinite horizon. Doing so indicates that the fiscal gap is 10.5 percent of GDP. This means we need to either reduce the time path of government expenditures by 10.5 percent of GDP or raise the time path of government revenues by 10.5 percent of GDP. Alternatively, we can enact a combination of spending cuts and tax increases that amount to 10.5 percent of annual GDP. This adjustment needs to begin immediately and continue forever.
Waiting to adjust will leave current adult generations either fully or partially off the hook and make the fiscal burden on young and future generations that much larger.
What’s Needed to Close the Fiscal Gap? Our $210 trillion fiscal gap represents 58 percent of the present value of projected future taxes. Hence, eliminating the fiscal gap via tax hikes requires an immediate and permanent 58 percent hike in federal taxes. Stated differently, the overall federal government is 58 percent underfinanced.
http://www.kotlikoff.net/sites/default/files/Kotlikoffbudgetcom2-25-2015...
This is why I have been researching what it takes for a foreigner (US "citizen") to move to Iceland Permanently. It's not easy but doable if you can demonstrate you can bring something of value to the table.
Look at Germany. Seriously. Its not perfect, but its the only place in the world I've found where 40% of the population isn't begging for Socialism. Its like 10% here, which is obviously still too much, but everyone here knows Socialism doesn't work.
Housing in cheap, and its easier to get in.
Like a well kept trailer in an old trailer park!
Regards,
Cooter
Yeah, Germany is so great ;-)
Besides high taxes on everything including income, there is in addition an over 20% VAT/sales tax...
And Germany has What for resources? Argued years ago that Germany wasn't the powerhouse that everyone at the time was claiming it was. Now we can see it built up on the backs of sub-prime trading (think "Greece"). Have yet to miss a call...
"Isms" mean little in the way of dictating the certain outcome of any entity: http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/2014/092814_files/TheFateofEmp...
Germany + Russia would be a thing to behold ... otherwise Germany is beholden to whoever supplies their raw materials.
Regards,
Cooter
Or 58% closer to default.
Jeb admitted last night in the G0P debate that the Iraq war cost 1 trillion and was based on faulty intelligence.
So, we just need to tak it back to the store for a refund. that would go along way to pay off some of these debts.
If it's faulty inteligence, then we need to increase the intelligence budget: More data collection, secret "rat out your neighbors" phone numbers, etc.
/s
So its like if your car is recalled for a life threatening defect (to you and others on the highway) when you take it back to the dealership you actually don't get it fixed. you bring a freind to help you buy and drive another one just like it?
Brilliant good Sir/Madaam. Brilliant.
I want two of those new toyota trucks i see the cool kids driving in the desert on my TeeVee!
Toyota makes one damn fine truck.
Top Gear (original UK, not pathetic US version) tries to kill a Toyota Hilux:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnWKz7Cthkk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTPnIpjodA8
Let me get this straight. Bush said it was Bush's fault?
Should make for some VERY awkward Thanksgiving dinner conversation.
Isn't this that old saying about a bird in the hand or something?
This is all giving good reason to believe that hell really does exist...
That's a bargain compared to the F-35 program which has cost $1.5 TRILLION and counting. And it still gets beaten in dogfights by the F-16, which went into production in the 70's. Russian figher jets, including the new T-50 are far superior to the F-35. But, hey, the MIC is happy.
Don't let the facts get in the way of a fat Gov't contract.
that would explain why they can not take out a column of ISIS parading around in brand new toyota trucks. It is not because of weak intelligence. the dudes are literally wearing all black and waving 4 meter flags ISIS flags.
next thing we need is a trillion dollar navy weapons program when those bad dudes start getting jet skis and come to kill us on our own soil.
Jeb Bush-Lois Learner 2016!
Jeb admitted last night in the G0P debate that the Iraq war cost 1 trillion.
That is a complete and total lie:
US Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq to Cost $6 trillion
The decade-long American wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would end up costing as much as $6 trillion, the equivalent of $75,000 for every American household, calculates the prestigious Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-wars-in-afghanistan-iraq-to-cost-6-trill...
what would you expect from a guy who wants to get in a fist fight with anybody who does not think his dad is the greatest person alive?
My dad is. But I respect other peoples opinons and would certainly not threaten violence on those who disagree, or use violence to collect taxes to get a thug to do the violence for me, on the other side of the world ... because of my faulty intelligence/bookkeeping ...
Yeah, very awkward..he loves his daddy more than a Duggars daughter...and the Jeb swag shop? I wonder how those sales are going?
Houston, we have a problem.
Talking about Houston, I beleive TX problems have just begun with the Oil slowdown. Will be interesting to see how Austin and Texas on the whole will take this
Texas has enough old folks in the wings who have seen this show before (it is a cycle in the oil patch), so in that sense things will bump along fine.
However, TX is now home to a LOT of people who moved there for jobs/etc and they don't have the same value set/culture that was more common among native Texans. This was one of the reasons I left.
The urban areas have grown so much, and much of that growth is out of staters, that is going to be where the problems crop up.
Houston, as always, will be ground zero for that.
Regards,
Cooter
Yeah, and quite the irony in that most of the influx was from California. All the flak that many folks from Texas unleash toward California and we find out that Texas is being filled by folks from California!
While tilting at windmills...
Keep Austin Weird!
That'll never change.
That's what was said the first time oil prices dropped.
If there's a recession in Texas, I sure don't see it, at least in the DFW area. Whole area still going gangbusters from what I can tell.
I saw drilling all over the desert the night I drove through Midland-Odessa in February. I know the rig count has dropped.
Bad times in the oil patch is just another rodeo for the old timers. I sorta see Greece in the same light, there's no panic because this ain't their first rodeo, either. The natives got their money out long before the robbers showed up.
I lived in Houston for 30 years and if they secede, I'm going back ASAP.
Overall, Texas is the best state, the Florida Panhandle would be a close second, if it didn't have that infected hemorrhoid hanging down below their Big Bend.
"Bad times in the oil patch is just another rodeo for the old timers."
Difference today is that they're shackled to Wall Street. And, well... they're OLD.
Economies of scale in reverse. Ain't no one going to escape this deflationary black hole.
no different than companies loading up on debt to buy back their shares. In the end, it has to be paid for.
Good luck with that
that's easy, just reissue more shares and make the bond payments, be sure to short your shares before you do!
And That in a nutshell!
Black swans ready to take off....
Nobody saw coming? Ray Charles can see this train wreck coming.
It may be a part of the Reaganomics and Libertarian push to get big government off our back. I know that in Ohio John Kasich made a big point of how he is cutting the state budget. His main success was in cutting remittances to local governments which in turn raised taxes, or more likely cut services. I would be more interested in seeing all levels of government as a percent of GDP.
If you look really closely you'd see that... you're missing the BIG PICTURE!
Not a fucking thing about anything that you see around you is sustainable. Again, change what you want, but unless you change the very economic structure of requiring growth in order to work then NOTHING changes- you end up at the cliff.
If you believe u.s. national debt clock, federal, state and local taxes are about 33.5% of GDP the ratio is in an uptrend. Estimates are for 38% of GDP by 2019
I would like to see a state by state break out of this 75% tax increase -
Will be soon enough , patience my Padwan. Homeowners will feel the wrath. I recently invested in a RV fixing it for future home. Dog and an RV simple living.
I'm looking at a nice van down by the river...
I just moved into an old ladys nose...
I saved the box from my last refridgerator purchase.
You have a box?
Lucky bastard!
the box is 25 years old, I think it's doubled in value.
Better arm that RV with some 3/4" plate.
And jack the hell out of it up. Will need to increase ground clearance to wade through those potholes.
I see escape pods for being about getting you to your next destination. And, I don't see Big and Flashy correlating all that well with being in escape mode...
Extra points for (above) having a dog, though. All the years of being "engaged" in discussion about future trends and security very few people bring a dog into the equation: just not as "cool" as talking about your various rifles/guns (which won't do you much good if you're beaten to the punch because you actually had to sleep).
Same shit, different day. I'm ready to attach jumper cables to the country's nipples and get this party started today. Bring it down!
Sgt. Shultz is what comes to mind.
Sounds like the "Detroit Syndrome."
"When borrowing become prohibitive (or impossible) and raising taxes no longer generates more revenues, state and local governments will have to cut expenditures. Given their many contractual obligations, these cuts will slice very quickly into sinews and bone."
Sorry, I call bullshit! The Fed will just print the deficit, and the rest of the world will buy it.
China doesn't want to destroy America.
It wants to own it.
Laffer must be laffing.
All ZH'ers should know that the curve means. Basically raising taxes, once taxes are beyond the top of the hump, produces LESS revenue, NOT more. Then it is game over until politicians have to promise LESS and governments have to spend LESS. What a concept.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curve
Local Government Debt explosion directly linked to local government municipal salaries....and the pension benefits.
So they borrow to pad their salaries....perfect.
Housing will go in the tank again as the taxes increase...and here we go again.
YELLEN.....when you reduce the cost of borrowing, you get more borrowing....debt has exploded and it is because borrowing is TOO CHEAP
The local/state tax burden is just crushing people, and it is happening in stealth. Apart from property, excise, and other obvious taxes, here are some school taxes that did not exist when I was in school:
Dude where are the athletic fees so low?
Where I live it's like this:
$1000 - Football
$700 - Lacrosse
$600 - Swim team
And these are just the ones I know about.
And when 0.0001% of those kids become professional chase a ball arounders, for a tax exempt charity like the NFL, your state and local taxing authorities will collect a couple hundred million more in taxes to build them stadiums that last about 20 years ...
Our P2P fees are $65/quarter, regardless of sport.
Lax is the same as cross country, although cross country doesnt have an annual US Lax membership involved.
Sounds like you just have a shitty district.
The real fees are in the equipment and camps.
Lax camp runs $500 for summer. New cleats, chest protector, shaft, head and gloves annually (goalie).
Cheer camp is $450 plus a hefty fee for uniforms.
AP has always charged a fee, at least I paid for both of mine in the way-back-when, and a very reasonable one in comparison to what 12 hours of college credit for each would otherwise cost you.
Home Schooling: Priceless.
Theres one large thing happening with the local and national Govt debts of US / Jpn / UK / EU.
The debts are not payable from tax as they have grown too large. Even with manipulated rates they are still a huge burdon on tax payers and are killing the economy via higher tax:s and drain on Govt spending.
But the liquidity in the market (due to QE) has meant their is enough liquidity to keep issuing.
ie although they are clearly bankrupt and cant pay the interest at any market rate, they can force pension funds/banks ect to buy the bonds via regulation.
So this is unusual case of being bankrupt in the sense that they cant even really afford the interest, but having access to liquidity to keep rolling over the bonds via ever increasing issuance and thus total debt and debt to GDP.
So the liquidity maskes the bankruptcy and need for restructure.
ie japans case debt is 10.5 trill and tax income is 500 bill (0.5 trill) so debt is 21 times the income.
if you have a busienss with 50,000 USD worth of income and 1,050,000 USD of Debt.. and no chance that the income can increase but the debt will increase by the interest amount plus and deficit (excess spending by company over profit)..is that company still viable even if can find investors..
ie US/Jpn /EU bonds local/federal gov.. make no sense institutions are still buying because of old perceptions (pre 100% debt to GDP) ie their literally not factoring in any default risk even though payment at any level apart from new issuance is impossible.
This is why property ownership in the USA is a farce and a horrible idea.
By owning a house you are a sitting target for the bandits to keep taxing you.
Don't like the new taxes? Don't pay. Then they take the land you "own".
One of the many reasons why I left the USA, was the property taxation and farce of "ownership".
In Florida, taxes were very reasonable (pre-2006) and their increase to full time residents were limited by the "Homestead Exemption". Once the real estate boom hit, all of the counties were taxing at the same rate so they had a "windfall" of tax dollars with the inflated (bubble) assessed values. Did they lower taxes? No. They spent all the money. Once the bubble exploded, it took 5 years for the assessed values to drop to reality... thus they continued to fleece everyone on inflated values and most raised taxes to offset the "loss" of tax revenue.
The other thing that States/Counties do is to tack on water (or other) project liens. You can have a vacant piece of property (stupid idea) and next thing you know you are hit with a levy that can exceed the value of the property. Classic example of this was a community in Florida that during the boom 1/4 acre lots went to $25000 each. The value now is $2000 or less and each lot has a $1500 to $2500 tax that has been added to the property to pay for a water project. Sounded great in the boom when the properties were "worth" $25K... now the county is being stuck with all of the properties as the owners are letting them revert to the county for back taxes.
I agree with your post, but don't think for a minute that it's limited to owners. This cost is absolutely passed on to renters.
Its amazing how many people don't get the obvious. If you are a renter, you are paying EVERY SINGLE COST the landlord pays, principal+interest, taxes, insurance, maintenance) PLUS a profit for the landlord. Anyone that thinks they are cheating the reaper by renting is a dolt.
Slow,
The landlord is, however, taking the risk.
D
I pay $660 a month rent on my apartment.
How much of that is taxes? Very little.
Yeah we all might have to pay the reaper, but there's ways to minimize that.
But, the fortunately mobile renter can move to a cheaper rent or to a less over-taxed locale. The renter doesn't have the albatross of "owning" the property about his or her neck.
But, the fortunately mobile renter can move to a cheaper rent or to a less over-taxed locale. The renter doesn't have the albatross of "owning" the property about his or her neck.
At a cost to the renter, moving costs... if the increase is less than moving expenses, many will simply stay.
No, but they also have a lease agreement which locks them in for a year or more.
Absolute truth, Slowimplosion. Taxes go up, rents go up. Repair costs go up, rents go up. Water, sewer, garbage go up, rents go up. Not a single landlord will take a loss when costs go up. They raise rents, or sell out, or go into foreclosure. The renters in effect most certainly are *buying* the property *for* the landlord.
"Not a single landlord will take a loss when costs go up."
They will if they own in a rent-controlled area, such as Vancouver. They'll also sit on a loss if they're convinced prices will eventually recover and they have the time to sit it out. I've seen three of these cycles since 1981. Same reaction each time: Soft market? Sit it out.
Another aspect of rent control is tenants rights. It is very difficult to evict in this city, thus if you have a good tenant, you'd be foolish to force them out, even if you could. Finding good tenants is a nightmare here, as I imagine it is elsewhere. We lived in the same place for 8 years with no rent increase. Why? Because we're responsible, respectful people and our landlord was a sensible guy.
Granted, if you're in the low end of the income scale you can get screwed pretty bad, but if renting is a choice, and you present yourself in a business like manner, then renting is a viable option, especially if you have more ambitious goals than simply owning a house after 30 years of heavy payments.
"Anyone that thinks they are cheating the reaper by renting is a dolt."
Most people who rent don't have any choice in the matter. They simply can't afford to buy. Those who can might have other priorities, such as a business investment or a more mobile lifestyle.
Buying property is a one-way bet that prices will always rise. Well, we all know how that worked out circa 2008. AFAIC, property "ownership" is a mass hallucination. Stop paying your taxes and you'll soon find out why.
Your home is nothing more than a capital good. Like any other capital investment, it is subject to the opportunity costs of alternative investments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost
Anyone who runs their own business will know what I mean. The rest *might* be better off "owning" property, depending how long it takes to pay down and what happens between now and then. From an investment perspective it's putting all your eggs in one basket. Historically speaking, if you don't mind that kind of risk, you'd have been better off in AAPL.
A real life example:
The place where we live is supposedly worth 1.5 M. (Vancouver). Now, if I put that in a US ten year note, I'd have more income than what our landlord gets in rent, and that's before taxes and maintenance. That's not all though. By subletting the basement suite to Japanese students (no gouging -they get a very good deal) we are WAY ahead of what it would cost to buy this place, plus we have the free cash flow to do other things, some of which includes money making investments.
In effect, the owner's one-way bet that this place will keep appreciating is subsidizing our lifestyle and investment options. The best part though, is we owe money to NO ONE. Apart from rent, gas, electric and cable are the only bills we see.
In many states owner occupied home pays a lower tax rate than the same home being rented.
The idea was to stick it to the rich landlord - while giving the homeowner a break.
So good chance if you rent you actually pay a higher amount in tax.
To paraphrase "The Donald";
I have paid taxes to hundreds of different authoroties, i.e., all that BS on all of my bills,....I am just going to not pay four taxing authoroties in the future.
So far I have picked Federal and Property taxes, still mulling the last two
Your friend,
Dog
Im sure picking up the trash will be the first service cut.
Just manipulate the data and then everything is sustainable on paper just for shits and giggles!
Re "When borrowing become prohibitive" blaahh. The US Government will continue to issue exponentially increasing amounts of treasuries, and the Fed will continue to create new money, from nothing, in response. The only way out is hyper inflation. its gonna be a bumpy ride....
Re "State and local government expenditures have risen faster than inflation or GDP." well, then, does that tell you how good the inflation and GDP numbers are the BLS sells us? Anyone? Anyone?? Something D O O economics?
If State & local taxation is falling that means that the Pentagon gets less support from the Federal Government which means that the Military Industrial Complex will have to layoff troupes, close bases, and reduce benefits to the upper tiers of the American Military.
UP yours, MIC, enjoy retirement in poverty motherfuckers, you earned it.
The next "crisis," singular? Hardly. We've got crises on top of crises inside of crises interwoven with crises -- along with who-knows-how-many crises that no one is aware of yet, waiting in the wings to show themselves when the visible ones go critical. It's a perfect f'ing storm of crises.
+1.
Then there is the crisis industry, there to panic savers into buying advice, newsletters, gold etc.. Apparently there is nothing like a crisis to sell this stuff.
Like most posters here are saying...
got a house? pay up.
got a car? pay up.
etc. and if you think you can escape it... they will shove it in your electric bill, or special assesments, or some other back door that skirts existing laws. Everything that ties us to the system is an avenue to exploit. And leaving the system will be made harder and harder... potentially even illegal in some critical ways.
This is nothing different than the soldiers of ancient Rome looting the city to be made whole on the broken promises of politicians waging endless wars and expansion. Except today it is done via pen instead of sword/spear. Backed up of course with a legal system that is more effective in slamming citizens than Nazi Germany at it's peak.
Think you can run from this? YMMV depending on where you live and how you are set up. Most of us are just fucked and the only path I can conceive is to be one step ahead as best as possible, be at peace with what we cannot control, be willing to adapt (and do so quickly), and so on. Even being willing to walk away from a house, a job, whatever it takes to be safe.
Spot on centreline my friend, nice to see you back posting.
Hope alls well with you and yours.
:-)
Thanks I96. All is well here. Hope it is the same for you and yours as well. Wish I could visit my family over on your side of the pond, but the damn airfare would require I sell kidney. Trying to save up for quick trip soon though.
Been lurking more and more these days. Not much to really say that hasn't already been said a thousand times... and at least for now I haven't had the urge to vent (am sure that will change in short order - lol). Trolling sounds like fun, but admittedly I suck at it. Really bad. Some folks just have a knack for internet posting. Guess my age is showing with this stuff - ha ha (late 40's... not that old).
39 years young in two months mate, and dont be bloody daft, you are one of the most sensible fuckers posting on here, and a good read I might just add.
Things are spot on here my end, bar me daughter passed her driving test first time and now needs to sell both kidneys, her heart, spleen, every disk in her back, her wisdom teeth, and her soul to drive a four hundred quid car.
Such is life eh? Hope you do get over here fella, and if you do, let me know and I'll meet you for a few pints.
On me of course.
;-)
Might just take you up on that someday! My family over there lives in Blackheath, near Kidbrooke Station. Last time we were there my kids were much younger... not really old enough to appreciate London, which is a cool place to visit. Just damn expensive.
Same goes over here if you ever find yourself in cental Florida (Disney, Universal, etc.). People even come here to shop for essentials (they bring a bunch of empty suitcases and leave with them full - having taken orders from all sorts of people back home).
Yeah, my daughter started driving last year. Is the insurance costs that are a killer here.
I live in a very old mining 'Pit Village' my friend, and I dont particularly like being off the ground, so if I ever do make your end, I will hunt you out or let you know I be coming.
London is a fucking cess pit now mate, a stinking shit hole of depravity that houses the very worst mankind has to offer, but Blackheath is alrite mind. I live about seven miles outside Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, an old born and bread Geordie, and according to some folk I deal with through work, 'A field in the middle of nowhere'? Ho-hum.
Hmm, regarding insurance, it really does make you wonder what the fuck you brought kids in to this world for, cos' even at an early age when we started owt, they cant even afford the most basic of necessities. What even us folk could. At least we were given a start, ours dont even deserve that according to the 'Big Men'.
You take care fella, and give my best to your family from a bloke across the pond.
;-)
Will do I96. Yeah, my brother-in-law was involved in council housing repair sort of stuff. I got a real first-hand look at the underbelly of London and definately agree. US and UK are neck and neck as far as big city cess pools are concerned... and screwed up government systems, delusional people, etc. Some of the council projects are regular damn prisons... cameras, guards, etc. Everything except the razor wire. (actually, I think there was some razor wire here and there).
EDIT: small world sort of thing here... believe it or not, I recently was given a gift of a small refrigerator size keg of Newcastle Brown Ale. Just made the connection and had to jump this edit in. First pint will be poured with a toast to Inthemix96!
Look, no one ever foresees a crisis , except by random chance and luck.
If anyone came up who could foresee crises regularly and with precision then that in itself would be a crisis and the casino would have to close.
Of course , there are many claiming to forecast , and by pure chance a few will be right on any given occasion, but chances are they will never be right again and so the show goes on.
This whole shitshow is a slow motion train wreck.
You may not know when and where the cars will land,
but you can see that it's gonna happen.
Here's a perfect example of why you want to be fashionably late to the party. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-12-22/meredith-whitney-overr...
To summarize, now in the entire United States of America, at all levels and in all sectors public and private, a group of undeserving and undeservedly highly-compensated group of complete morons are in charge.
Well, actually the Governments of the Entire World, with a very few exceptions.
Plus UN, EU, WHO, IPCC, WTO etc. pp...
Re. this particular "crisis", I dont see why THEY should not be able to print a couple of more trillions in a deflationary environment before hyperinflation starts. I am sure the FED is buying stocks, why not munis?
plus c'est la même chose.
La plus ca change...
http://albainternazionale.blogspot.it/2015/08/caso-mistral-adesso-lasia-...
Mistral ... France out
as I've said San Diego is like Greece, on the periphery, shipyards, lots of rich people but it doesnt make jobs. now they want to help their NFL team build a 1.1B new stadium (the team has turned up its nose, wants to move to LA for something even bigger) our big tech employer Qualcom started layoffs, Seaworld missed earnings. the business page says the local economy is strong (booyah) the window on redevelopment was closed by the governor, but somehow money for projects is available. muni governments are prohibited from deficit spending, but in this gogo bond economy there is always some way to create credit out of thin air, even if money printing is not allowed. the Greece EU analogy is probably a good one, Washington sends money to the states (it used to be they collected money from the states, but handing out money is one way to curry political favor) they keep the stock market juiced which keeps the states largest pension fund in the green, and that helps. no doubt the sheer size of federal government spending filters down to the states and cities. to me its a lagging indicator, that money will keep coming after washington is burned and president trump occupies the temporary white house, its like the finger nails on a dead person, they keep growing.
Without naming names, my employer is the beneficiary of a bond measure to fund campus upgrades in a large number of categories: physical plant, technology, transportation, energy, etc. Total in the ballpark of $1 Billion USD, all courtesy of a bond measure foisted on the hapless taxpayer.
A colleague asked me not long ago, "do you know anyone buying these bonds up? Because I don't. I don't think they've sold them, at least not all of them."
I know of no buyers, anywhere (Yellen, maybe?).
Most of what this money has paid for is of poor quality and already experiencing problems. Shoddy paving cracking in the heat, laptops that don't work, IT network that fails regularly, new buildings gassing off toxic fumes, steel gates, fencing, and architecture that is corroding noticably after only one year, new foundations already cracking.
But the dean and the provost and the ad staff all seem happy as larks as they parade around here so I guess it's all good in the hood, huh?
Most of the analysis and commentary about the graphs are misleading and completely miss the mark. Really you should be comparing the 15 year period from 2000 to 2015 with the previous cycle 1985 to 2000. In the 1985-2000 period we see less money being sent to the states by the fed, thank you Reagan tax cuts (top income tax rate cut from 70% in 1981 to 28% by 1988). This limited the size of government. The third graph incorrectly labels an 82% increase in local and state expenditures when it's really only 62% (which is less than the 75% increase in receipts for the same period - so at least it floats). The previous 15 year period shows this growth at nearly 170%, so we can see this has been severely reduced in the 2000-2015 period (cut more than in half).
The real troubling aspect is that if the government were a business, we are looking more like Woolworths or Sears, not growing but dying from the corporate board within. At the rate of government is decreasing in size, corporate America is doomed.
Most of the analysis and commentary about the graphs are misleading and completely miss the mark. Really you should be comparing the 15 year period from 2000 to 2015 with the previous cycle 1985 to 2000. In the 1985-2000 period we see less money being sent to the states by the fed, thank you Reagan tax cuts (top income tax rate cut from 70% in 1981 to 28% by 1988). This limited the size of government. The third graph incorrectly labels an 82% increase in local and state expenditures when it's really only 62% (which is less than the 75% increase in receipts for the same period - so at least it floats). The previous 15 year period shows this growth at nearly 170%, so we can see this has been severely reduced in the 2000-2015 period (cut more than in half).
The real troubling aspect is that if the government were a business, we are looking more like Woolworths or Sears, not growing but dying from the corporate board within. At the rate of government is decreasing in size, corporate America is doomed.
Reggie: Why don't you do something about the plight of all Americans, Munchkins?
BHB: I cannot control them until the economy collapses and the people loyal to me get credit cards.
Reggie: But what happens to folks who just simply disagree with you?
BHB: Read this book on Soviets, Reg. I'll have to gas most Americans, especially the Jews and Christians, or any YT I can find. Bill says we will have to exterminate 25 million Americans in his book, but I think we'll have to liquidate more than that. Bill is already preparing gas chambers at WallyWorld. I have bids out for crematoriums to be built on site.
Reggie: It just sounds so Evil, Munchkins!
BHB: Don't worry, we'll be safe. We have to liquidate anyone calling for abiding by that Evil Constitution document and the equally disgusting Bill of Rights! I may end up obliterating most of America, but I will be King! These foolish people have no idea what I am planning for my last few months in office, which, by the way will NOT be my last days in office. We aren't going anywhere, loverboy!
'the ringing of the money-tree', is a comin?
DEAD NATION WALKING
But we do knoweth that whenever it befalleth us, the US military shall either maketh a coup d'etat or starteth a monster battle with the evil other side.
On this you can betteth the farm.
dont worry boys & girls, central planners are in full control.
now they have to lower usd and distribute cash to the sheeple. that's why you have obamacares, all sorts of taxes, "climate change fights" etc etc
they just want to retrieve that money back to corrupt state - not to go in gold ... what can go wrong? :-)
Only slightly off topic since we are discussing Peak (debt) Retard...
Calls 911 on guy carrying Confederate flag.
http://www.theamericanmirror.com/resident-calls-911-over-man-walking-ver...
Ayers: The flag issue is not getting the desired results, Bath House.
BHB: I'll give Louie a call. We could certainly be exterminating more YTs!
There has always been a dispute as to whether the Confederate flag serves MOSTLY as a symbol of slavery or as a symbol of resistance to authority. The recent heavy-handed efforts to eliminate it is tilting more people's opinions towards the latter outlook than the former.
In other words, rather than isolating and destroying the South, it is creating a renewed bond of sympathy and understanding, which is not the outcome that was expected or desired by the people who so gladly pushed the concept onto the national stage. Things seem to have gotten pretty quiet on this topic among the "thought leaders" but the message has yet to reach the minds of the "thought led" who are now busily expressing outrage at the merest sight of the Stars and Bars. This is what they were led to believe was a desirable and popular social fashion, and now the expression of their implanted outrage is leading to regret among those who put it there in the first place.
Nyuk-nyuk-nyuk.
My generation is hosed (Under 45). The government wage increases, along with ineased taxes and ow pension outlays will ensure that infrastructure deteriorates as no political entity will sacrifice infrastructure maintenance/repair/replacement.
No, no no. you math challenged dork.
A 75% rise in State taxes, does not require a 75% rise in wages.
Here: Say state tax is 3%. On 100,000 that's $3,000
IF state raises that 75% to 5.25%, tax would be $5,250.
Butt: If wage increased 75% to $175,000. the tax on that, at 5.25% would be $9,187.50
See?
If your gonna post charts, it helps that your math is flawless, or at least in the ball park. So I can't believe what you wrote.
Butt, I have no quarrel that if there was anything resembling fairness in pay-----to compensate for what the 1% ers are doing to the middle class---- that 175,000 should be the rate of pay today versus 7 yrs ago, none at all.
Default is in the air...
Can anyone please explain to me Mr. Smith's claim to fame? Paul Craig Roberts I know, Turk I know, Stockman, et al. They've done something that gives them acclaim, a profile.
But the lion's share of ZH commenters are just as astute - and in a great many cases, more astute - than Charles Hugh-Smith.
Why is he so highly regarded?
Sponsorship would be my guess.
In fairness to Mr. H-S, I did happen to catch an interview with him on Trunews this week. He sounds more intelligent in person than he writes.
Sweetheart
We said that about you until you overdosed on botox of the lips. Then we just giggled whenever you opened your mouth. :oD
Isn't it strange that the mainstream media never sees anything coming when the alternative media always does?
1. The bond market may choke if state and local governments try to "borrow our way to prosperity...
naw. fidelity will buy them.
Isn't the bond market already choking given the volume has decreased over 60% and the FED & Co. is the main buyer?
This is russian world:
1) Russia companies buy EU food
2) putin has food destroyed
3) Russians scavenge for food
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/629710220160278528
Only under putin regime russian soldiers are buried in the night in secret with no honor:
https://youtu.be/C66mAkS1ZfM
And cheese buried with media coverage:
https://youtu.be/6oxfbbzC3PM
Beat it , fucktard or I will show the videos of French farmers dumping milk
You are a pathetic son of a bitch.
Such hatred you are spewing; perhaps you hate the liberty to speak freely. Sounds more like the person lacks understanding perhaps from a place of ignorance.
Posting for Potatos, Latvian style.
Useless mouthbreather.
Why does this upset you guys so much? I don't get it.
He's always respectful and usually offers some sort of documentary backup for his opinion.
So he doesn't like Putin or Russia, big deal.
If he didn't like Jews and posted the way he does, you'd be throwing him a party.
http://www.thirdworldtraveler.com/
Mossad is already busy under orders from Bibi (and US Congress)
http://www.presstv.com/Detail/2015/08/07/423719/Turkey-PKK-militants-Ira...
The Crocodile is very thankful for the following: food, shelter, clothing, running water, flushing toilet, washing machine, dryer, family, friends (not of the social network variety) and being reconciled to the Lord who will judge all the nations in righteous indignation.
-----------------------------
Can you name the man who spent his childhood killing birds by beating their heads with a hammer and took further pleasure in torturing puppies among other animals and when he set sail on the S.S. Beagle hoped to encounter cannibals in order to shoot them for fun? Before I answer it, for those who have no idea; who would listen to such a fool or take seriously any of his ideology? Answer to the latter is most people; especially in academic, political, and "religious" circles. Now who was this man and what was his influence that has damned every person who followed his secular religion? Charles Darwin.
----------------
For all who hate religion; know that you to have a religion (just not of the "formal" variety), for religion is a set of moral values that are used to guide ones behavior in which one often violates when convenient and changes with the cultural influences and impose it directly or indirectly upon others while condemning those with different values and labeling them as intolerant. Then add a smattering of emotional bias and use that combo (relative moral values & emotional bias) as a pretense as reason, logic & intellect. What secularist religion really opposes are the fixed moral values, whose standard no one can keep, given to us for our good by the Law Giver, who is Jesus Christ. Invoke that name and many shutter in a tirade of hatred, whilst they claim to be "tolerant" and the reality is they are intolerant to anything that they oppose.
------------------------
As the above charts demonstrate is the result of our hearty approval of our secular religious beliefs. Because our Creator will not be mocked; as it is written, our nation has been given over to go our own way without His benevolent restraint resulting in much pain and suffering. But keep in mind that Jesus is not at all like us, for He is patient toward us, but we have used it up and now we are reaping that which we have sewn. Everyone can expect things to get much much worse, but even though we are under judgment and rightly so, He still has an outstretched hand offering forgiveness based on love for those who recognize their rebellion and repent and surrender to Him. The nation would be healed if we turned from our own ways and turned toward Him, but that is unlikely as we shall witness by the response to the comments. May God have mercy on us and bless each of you to salvation.
2 minutes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMlv21zGARM
I hope the cancer in your vestigal brain spreads to your liver, lungs & kidneys and you die a slow horrible death.
And I hope you are taken mercifully and without pain when your own time comes.
On The Origin of Species
by Means of Natural Selection, or The Preservation of Favoured Races in the Struggle for Life
First EditionNot quite the image they want to project any more, so, presto-chango, disappearo. Time for a new title more in keeping with the spirit of a new era.
who is damon vrable?
1. The debt exists for a number of reasons. Some are currently necessary also for a number of reasons.
2. Debts will not go away but only need to increase in the current system as it operates until it fails.
3. Raising taxes may not generate more revenue but taxes will be increased significantly to cover what is required to continue in the current system.
4. Taxes continue to be marketed and disguised as anything but taxes. (i.e. fees)
5. Those that know the complete answers to the Key Questioning that would explain the current system are withholding this from everyone and abusing it to their advantage in many ways. They will do so until the end if allowed.
6. There are many levels of knowledge, understanding and commitment among those that contribute to sustain this system.
7. It doesn't need to be this way for anyone and can be repaired with the right unified support.
I am seeing signs of an increasing amount of diverse support for number seven above. Thank you. Please do your best to share information and influence others to support these efforts.
Example & Analogy: There is a local high level public sector employee and alleged representative of their constituents. They claim to be either a part of or represent a number of groups and this was one reason they were elected. These groups as with any other categorization and label are used to unite when needed and divide and conquer when needed to maintain the current system.
I watched an interview with this public employee some time ago. A brave individual asked them a question on camera about why they were knowingly allowing 500% over the maximum limit of just 1 known cancer causing agent into the public water supply. The public employee replied, along with the biggest smirk you've ever seen, and quoted another higher public sector's "acceptable guidelines" as justification. They refused to do anything. Luckily enough individuals saw this, made it more widely known to the public and demanded action. And very shortly afterwards it was corrected.
It doesn't matter to me how this public employee self-identifies. When they admit to knowingly poisoning everyone they allege to represent and are clearly getting pleasure from this they obviously need help and also removed from their position. If not for their own safety then for the safety of everyone else. And partial or uninformed consent is not consent. How many of you, once informed you are being poisoned, would still consent? None I hope.
And everyone's current financial future, just like the poisoned public water system, will still end badly for everyone if enough individuals from all groups don't stand up together and demand a change. The current final course will be just like a cancer that metastasizes. It has already been allowed to spread throughout the global organism. And not addressing the root cause and treating it soon will be fatal. I realize there are a die-hard few that want that end and may be willing to do anything to see it out. I'm also confident most don't fully understand or even know and will definitely not want what awaits them at the end.
Renaissance 2.0 - Financial Empire - Full Length - Damon Vrabel
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96c2wXcNA7A
.
http://csper.org/
.."
The truth has never been clearer. We're living in a voracious empire
based on people ownership, i.e. subjugating humans to increasing debt servitude to Wall Street and the global banking establishment. This debt system has morphed economics from a study in human progress to an engine of human enslavement. Spirituality ("sense of meaning") and psychology have been crushed as a result. Any sense of a meaningful life has almost been vanquished as the corporate system that serves Wall Street has replaced truth with fake media PR and replaced our communities with narcissistic hierarchy.
The good news is that this system is on its last leg. It will end. ..."
damon vrable
Open For Offers
by Steve Keen on October 19th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2012/10/19/open-for-offers/comment-pa...
.
with a lively comment section.
.
ladies and gentlemen, you have owners. they construct
governing systems, by law and or decree as it suits
them, attention given to time, place and value to be
extracted and incorporated into their multi year plans
and ongoing infrastructures, assets and capital.
there are no hard and fast standards or rules other
than avoiding their own self destruction if possible.
they teach the doctrine of humanities, essential worthlessness,
see poverty, helplessness and
starving "natives", except as the individual's potential
to become a tool of their slave debt system. people
embrace this and create of themselves "narcissistic
projections" formed of coincidental gatherings and
digital or physical meme-oids.
they can call it capitalism or communism/socialism and turn either into fascism in a heart beat but notice the actual structure does not have to change nor does it change !
all the elements are there in one form or another ,
built into the structure of the money system, or the
payment system, or the "who owes what to whom"
system.
with one decision or appointment or law the entire
edifice of government can be recast as something
else. people will then gather around it in support.
it is the law, after all.
doesn't really matter what it is called or how it is
described so long as the payments and payouts continue.
so long as the ownership arrangement is not disturbed,
so long as the monopoly on the value of the distribution
system of the payouts is maintained.
the owners want/demand to be paid first, after all they own
you and all of it through the institution of government
they created and stole fair and square, so pay them.
if you like to call it capitalism or communism or fascism
that is up to you, just make sure you pay them their
rent, or note, tax, fee, fine or whatever it is called,
toll, premium, whatever. they don't care, just come up
with the legal tender and pay. they don't care if there
is no such instrument available for payment, they will
build a prison for you to work.
.
when you die they will charge you 10,000 dollars for
a good fire. people have owners and everyone is trying
to join them in their delusional pot by means of
self created narcissistic projection. but, it doesn't
work , the projections do not comport with the truth/s
that sustain life, so ,
something has to change.