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July Payrolls Rise 215K, Less Than Expected; Annual Earnings Growth Miss, Unemployment Remains At 5.3%
In a somewhat antticlimatic report, moments ago the BLS reported that July nonfarm payrolls came in at 215K, modestly below the expected 225K and down from the upward revised June print of 231K, and down from the 260K in May, with the unemployment rate flat at 5.3%, in line with expectations.
Overall, a number that was bad, but not bad enough to deter the Fed from hiking, if that is indeed what it plans on doing.
But while the headline jobs number was disappointing - if not enough to deter a rate hike - the one number that remains solidly in rate statis territory was the average hourly earnings growth: while AHE rose by 0.2% in July as expected, the annual increase of 2.1% was nothing to write home about, and 0.2% below the 2.3% expected, which may be the only reason the Fed would delay a rate hike following the endless jawboning of the past year.
Some more details from the report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in July, compared with an average monthly gain of 246,000 over the prior 12 months. In July, job gains occurred in retail trade, health care, professional and technical services, and financial activities.
Employment in retail trade increased by 36,000 in July and has risen by 322,000 over the year. In July, motor vehicle and parts dealers added 13,000 jobs, and employment continued to trend up in general merchandise stores (+6,000).
Health care added 28,000 jobs in July and has added 436,000 jobs over the year. In July, employment rose in hospitals (+16,000).
Professional and technical services added 27,000 jobs in July, with gains in computer systems design and related services (+9,000) and architectural and engineering services (+6,000). Over the past 12 months, professional and technical services has added 301,000 jobs. Management of companies and enterprises added 14,000 jobs over the month.
Employment in financial activities rose by 17,000 in July and has risen by 156,000 over the past 12 months. Insurance carriers and related activities accounted for more than half of the gain in July (+10,000) and over the year (+85,000).
In July, manufacturing employment edged up (+15,000). Employment in nondurable goods rose by 23,000 over the month, including gains in food manufacturing (+9,000) and in plastics and rubber products (+6,000).
Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in July (+29,000) and has increased by 376,000 over the year.
Employment in transportation and warehousing also continued to trend up in July (+14,000) and has risen by 146,000 over the year. Employment in couriers and messengers rose by 3,000 over the month.
Mining employment continued to trend down in July (-5,000). Since a recent high in December 2014, employment in the industry has declined by 78,000, with losses concentrated in support activities for mining.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, wholesale trade, information, and government, showed little change over the month.
Overall a report that was bad, but not bad enough, and as a result it is bad for stocks if only according to the initial kneejerk reaction.
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US economic data is goal-seeked to best suit Wall Street's interests.
Here we go again, another month same old.
Full Layoff / Business Closing List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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Well here comes liftoff. Of course there will be those who say that they can't because it will cause markets and the economy to go into a tail spin. This may be exactly what the ivory tower economists want, then they can introduce some really crazy policies, like banning cash and seriously negative rates. Explained here. Never let a good crisis go to waste after all.
Yet another positive payrolls number - not as high as expected - but an increase nonetheless . We are at the very beginning of a long-term economic recovery, so these numbers are exactly what we'd expect to see, indicating steady, linear economic growth. Slowly but surely, our economy is recovering, and Americans are starting to see the fruits of this economic growth in terms of employment, business opportunities, stock market returns and lower commodity prices as technology allows us to produce far more than we consume.
Glad to see you're still around. You're a really funny guy.
Another 432 more batches and we'll have full employment.
Can someone show me the math on that 5.3% figure......no Common Core math allowed.
Its been slowly but surely for 7 years, very slow. If this is the recovery part we are so fucked.
So THIS is enough to waterfall silver 1%?
We should know by now that no matter what the manufactured payroll number reported is that the simultaneous smashing of gold and silver is always part of the game plan.
@JustObserving
The banking cabal that runs wall street. Probably run out of The City of London with majority of directors residing in Switzerland.
If the US population growth rate is 2%,you would have to make 30,000 jobs / DAY just to meet the growing population. Yet this is tooted like the be all end all..
The number wasn't great, but it wasn't "bad". Just what the Fed needs to execute on.
no...they're saving up for a big August number...
everyone thinks the Fed is on their side. the Fed is on the side that is opposite the small guy. if wall st says time for stocks to tank, the Fed will do it. in 2008, it was letting LEH go. this time, rate hikeS.
More bullshit! Just enough of a lie to knock Gold and rasie the Equities on Friday . This shit is getting real old! I am sickened by this deception!
The Fed CANNOT raise rates.
DavidC
But they WILL cause they HAVE to.
Why do they HAVE to? And why does it have to be September? The Dow is off over 1,000 points and they still haven't said they are going to raise them definitively, they keep flip flopping like children.
DavidC
$50 gold eagle says they won't do it.
Anyone?
Be careful what you wish for .. Those following the Shemitah are expecting some 'big stuff' as in a Japanese wipe out - or some other massive event. The market could be cut 80% by Christmas with what is being expected.. Nobody has an inside 'pass' or at least they are not talking, we do not know the event in September that will kill the markets - we just know it will happen, and the collapse will be BIG.
David Wilkerson Scenario : Brazil defaults, two weeks later Mexico Defaults, triggers a bank run that takes out $15 billion an hour out of US banks, triggering their shutdown September 12th, 2015?
Japan Quake Scenario : Massive 9.2 strikes island of Honsu (main island) Japan. Craters there stock market and they begin withdrawing all US investments for the rebuild. US markets tank.
NorthWest Quake Scenario : 24 hours after the UN votes to make Palestine a State, the plates buckle off the coast of Washington triggering a 300 foot high tsunami that wipes out everything in the north west coast inland 50 miles.
Or a mix of scenarios could also occur. Watching closely and there are warning markers also being watched for - all three could go.
@Headbanger
They are stuck. They've blown an equity and real estate bubble, but just think what a rate hike would do to their UST-laden blance sheet.
Exactly. They're the ones holding all that bad debt. They need rates at -1% just to get their money back.
If rates go up, US goes bankrupt. Sorry FED, we can't pay you this month. Go ask Puerto Rico and Greece how it works.
215k. how many illegals did we let in last month??
More manipulated statistics to justify manipulated markets. This is a total non event.
Do people really believe that bullshit number? 5.3 percent? SMDH
More like 20.3 or higher in REAL numbers.
Tyler,
Do not publish that lie of 5.3% otherwise you give credence to that bullshit
And gold heads south, after all hit or miss they must knock it down.
Just waiting to pull the trigger on sub $1000 when the big smash comes in September. Hope there's still ANY available to buy.
.gov folks are secure in the jobs area, the rest of us fuck off
The BS is going on and to jusify it the productivity will need to go down. But what the heck, the WS teeves will feed the lemmings whatever is needed to screw them.
Amazing, There are 93.7 million Americans of working age out of work and the unemployment rate is 5.3%. What am I missing???