"We Have A Civil War": Inside Turkey's Descent Into Political, Social, And Economic Chaos

Tyler Durden's picture

Deflecting criticism surrounding Ankara’s anti-terror air campaign, Turkey’s foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu last week told state television that strikes against ISIS targets would pick up once the US had its resources in place at Incirlik which will supposedly serve as a hub for a new "comprehensive battle."

Turkey has had a difficult time explaining why, after obtaining NATO support for a new offensive campaign to root out "terrorists", its efforts have concentrated almost solely on the PKK and not on ISIS. As we’ve discussed in great detail (here, here, and here), and as the entire world is now acutely aware, Ankara’s newfound zeal for eradicating ISIS is nothing more than a cover for its efforts to undermine support for the PKK ahead of snap elections where President Tayyip Erdogan hopes to win back AKP’s absolute majority in parliament which it lost last month for the first time in 12 years.

Cavusoglu was effectively suggesting that the reason it appears as though Ankara is overwhelmingly targeting the PKK at the possible expense of efforts to weaken ISIS is because Turkey must wait for the US to show up first, at which point the "real" fight will begin with the possible assistance of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Qatar. In the meantime, the country is descending into civil war and for many Kurds, the frontlines are all too familiar. Here’s Al Jazeera

Located on the Tigris River just upstream from Turkey's Iraqi and Syrian borders, Cizre has been shaken by nocturnal gun battles between police and residents in recent days.

 

Its streets remain deserted after sunset, while families sleep in the innermost rooms of Cizre's squat, cinderblock homes to protect themselves from gunfire.

 

Hostilities have smouldered here since Turkey's government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) abruptly ended a two-year ceasefire in late July, imperilling the hard-won gains of Kurdish politicians and reversing prospects for a historic peace deal nearly achieved in March.

 

Since July 23, Ankara has launched hundreds of bombing missions against the PKK's strongholds in northern Iraq, while the PKK has killed at least 18 members of Turkey's security forces in guerrilla attacks throughout the country's east.

 

Those attacks have put Cizre, a long-defiant bastion of pro-Kurdish sentiment, back on the front lines of a conflict that has cost more than 30,000 lives since 1984.

 

"They say war is coming, but it's already here in Cizre," said Rasid Nerse, a 26-year-old construction worker.

 


 

The ending of the ceasefire came less than two months after Turkey's Kurdish-rooted People's Democracy Party (HDP) scored a historic victory in national elections.

 

Though Kurdish deputies usually run for parliament as independents, the HDP cleared a daunting 10 percent electoral threshold to become the first pro-Kurdish bloc to formally enter parliament under its own name. 

 

Though the HDP has called on both sides to end the subsequent hostilities, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has attacked the political party, requesting last week that parliament strip Kurdish lawmakers of their legal immunity from prosecution.

 

Our citizens see the police as a threat to their security, not a provider of it said Kadir Kunur, HDP mayor of Cizre.

 

Ankara has ordered the detention of more than 1,000 HDP members in a national "anti-terror" probe that has focused on the PKK. 

 

The PKK is listed as a "terrorist group" by Turkey, the European Union and the US.

 

In Cizre, that crackdown has helped bring about the present security crisis.

 

As mourners returned to their homes after Nerse's funeral, many struggled past a series of makeshift walls and ditches that have recently been erected to encircle their neighbourhoods.

 

Armed members of the PKK youth wing (YDG-H) began setting up the improvised barriers on July 26, when 21-year-old resident Abdullah Ozdal was killed during a protest.

 

The vigilante youth group grew out of previous security crackdowns, which saw hundreds of Cizre youths radicalised while in Turkish prisons.

 

Operating at night and frequently armed, the YDG-H similarly encircled the town during anti-government riots across the region last year.

 

"Our citizens see the police as a threat to their security, not a provider of it," said Kadir Kunur, the town's HDP mayor. Kunur pointed to the dozens of bullet holes that pockmark the HDP's building in Cizre, remnants from one of many deadly raids police launched here in the early 1990s.

And more from Vice:

The trenches have been dug in Cizre. Several feet wide and paired with mounds of earth and torn-up building material, they appeared blocking roads in this Kurdish enclave in southeastern Turkey after Ankara launched an intensive air campaign against the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in July. 

 

Children play on them during daylight hours. But at night, when police move in, they're patrolled by groups of armed youths, who attempt to repel these official incursions in fierce clashes that have left at least one dead and many injured.

 

 

Cizre has spent years on the fringes of war. The unremarkable-looking town of just over 100,000 lies on the Tigris River, around 30 miles from the tripoint where Turkey meets conflict-ravaged Syria and Iraq, and violence regularly strays over the national boundaries. Now, the cycle of airstrikes and renewed PKK attacks on Turkish troops threaten a return to the three-decade-long struggle between the two sides that claimed more than 40,000 lives. And here, residents feel like they're at the heart of the fight.

 

"There's a saying, 'if there's peace, it will start from Cizre, and if there's war, it will start from here as well,'" the town's co-mayor Leyla Imret, 28, told VICE News recently. "And we can say we have a civil war in Turkey." 

While the most tragic consequence of the renewed violence will unquestionably be the human toll, there are real implications for the country's economy and indeed, the political uncertaintly (and the war that's come with it) threaten to undermine Turkey's investment grade credit rating. Although Moody's took no action on Friday, the risk of downgrade is very real. Here's Goldman:

Turkey's rating outlook has been "negative" since early 2014, which means there is a real (and arguably increasing) risk of a formal downgrade within the coming 6 months.

 

Our previous research on the impact of rating changes (from junk to IG status) suggest that a potential downgrade could result in a material widening in Turkey's CDS spreads, by as much as 60bp cumulatively (20-100bp range for +/- 1 standard deviation; Exhibit 1-2), with the first downgrade instantly prompting a c. 20bp widening. Of course, this estimate is based on a stylised econometric model, and it is possible that the downgrade could lead to a more significant market impact given that it is not widely anticipated by market participants.

 

 

And Barclays has more on the intersection of war, politics, and financial conditions in Turkey:

Heightened geopolitical risk arising from the terror attack in Suruc is no accompanied by rising domestic risks from the renewed terror attacks by the PKK. These have inflamed political rhetoric and already tense coalition talks between the AKP and CHP, raising significantly the risks of a snap election and political instability. It remains to be seen whether the heightened tension will push the AKP and CHP further apart or bring together the AKP and MHP.

 

Escalating security risks may work in favour of the AKP in a snap election: The argument is that the perception of rising internal and external threats (PKK and ISIS) could increase the electorate’s preference for strong leadership and hence a singleparty government. It is also possible that AKP may attract some votes from MHP as a result of adopting a tougher stance against PKK (including the use of military force), ramping up the rhetoric against HDP and abandoning the Kurdish peace process.

 


 

Risk of HDP remaining below 10% is low for now: We do not see a significant likelihood that the HDP would score below the 10% national threshold in the event of a snap election, barring possible turbulence in the party caused by a potential ban on prominent politicians or party closure. The migration of votes from AKP to HDP appears to be a structural shift and unlikely to reverse in the near term, considering AKP’s increasingly nationalistic rhetoric and its stance on the Kurds in Syria.

 


 

Economic implications of recent developments are negative: We think: 1) the risks to the sovereign rating outlook have risen; 2) downside risks to growth are higher; 3) the perception of higher rising political/geopolitical risks could increase dollarization; and 4) corporate sector’s FX mismatches will be exposed.

 

Risks to the sovereign rating outlook have increased: Turkey’s gross external financing requirement remains large at c.USD200bn (or 25% of GDP), regardless of the improvement in the current account deficit. Needless to say, any rollover of this debt and/or the extent of re-pricing not only depend on global financial conditions but also investors’ perceptions of Turkey-specific risks. This naturally ties into the sovereign ratings outlook and associated risks to Turkey’s IG status, which moved back into focus during the election. The rating outlook revolves around whether political risks, policy uncertainties and government effectiveness could discourage capital inflows, thereby exposing Turkey’s external vulnerabilities. Rating agency commentary has generally been negative since the elections, highlighting rising political uncertainty and likely delay in structural reforms.

As for what happens next, expect Washington and Ankara (who, you're reminded, both want Assad out of Damascus) to begin launching joint strikes against ISIS targets. Tragically, the plight of the Kurds in Turkey will fade into the background and Erdogan will be free to exterminate his political opposition with NATO's blessing. Once US missions from Incirlik become a regular occurrence, expect Saudi Arabia (which was hit with another suicide bombing this week) and Qatar to enter the fray and from there, the excuses to put American (and Saudi) boots on the ground will mount until eventually, a full scale invasion will be undertaken on the excuse that it's the only way to neutralize the ISIS threat.

On cue, Fox News reported on Friday that the US army is sending F-16s to Turkey, but perhaps more telling is the postioning of "a search-and-rescue team of elite Air Force pararescuemen, with their support helicopters and crews" which will stand ready to assist the Pentagon's "elite" troop of Syrian freedom fighters in case they, like their commander and deputy, are prompty captured by militants the second they set foot on Syria's (formerly) sovereign soil:

The U.S. Air Force is planning to send six F-16s from an undisclosed location in Europe to Turkey after the Turks agreed to allow manned flights from Incirlik Air Base and others last week. This would put U.S. jets only a 30-minute flight from ISIS targets in Syria.

 

The new jets are expected to arrive in the next few days. Strike missions against ISIS will begin shortly after their maintenance crews can get set up. Part of the mission of the new jets will be to support the fledgling U.S.-trained Syrian fighters.

 

Additionally, a search-and-rescue team of elite Air Force pararescuemen, also known as "PJs," with their support helicopters and crews will be moved into position after the fighters arrive. 

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clade7's picture

Who gives a fuck about Turkey?  Its not anywhere close to November...

Takeaction2's picture
Takeaction2 (not verified) clade7 Aug 8, 2015 10:26 AM

"Our citizens see the police as a threat to their security, not a provider of it," .........Hmm...sounds familiar.      

strannick's picture

America must be so happy.

NeoCons(/Libs) and the CIA love civil war

An iron fist smashing civilization to smithereens,  reducing the world to rubble. It's their vision for humanity.

(That will teach Putin to want a multipolar world, to love his country, to be a Christian.)

Money Counterfeiter's picture
Money Counterfeiter (not verified) strannick Aug 8, 2015 10:55 AM

Bankers do love debt. Nothing better than war to kill peasants and run up the debt.

Latina Lover's picture

l'll bet Victoria Nuland/Nudelman is creaming her panties, watching the chaos  in Turkey, and jealous that she can't directly participate.

jefferson32's picture

Thierry Meyssan is the very first journalist (as far as I can tell) to have called 911 a false flag operation (except for Alex Jones). Here is a great article where he explains and predicts Turkey's civil war:

http://www.voltairenet.org/article188307.html

Have a look at his site voltairenet if you have the time, it's definitely worth it.

Latina Lover's picture

Turkey's economy is circling the toilet bowl, hence Erodgans one of many reasons to start a war.

 

BTW, the linked article is excellent.  Thank You.

847328_3527's picture
Paris turning schools, hotels into housing for migrants

 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/paris-turning-schools-hotels-into-ho...

 

" Yes we can! "

Bioscale's picture

It's similar everywhere in Europe.

Austria is turning sport centers into migrant houses, the government making 5 year contracts with the private owners, everythin paid by Brusel's money. The same is happening in other countries in Central Europe.

Deluting the white race and making huge money out of it and let pay the taxpayers later via debt for it, smells like other Rothschild's businesses in Europe.

The black aristocracy should be uncovered and hanged publicly on the squares everywhere in the world to avoid establishing the secret filth again..

Handful of Dust's picture

Formerly pleasant [and safe] towns have turned into migrant centers. I was in Bergan Norway last year and was stunned; their little downtown square was normally quiet at night in the past, but since the mass migration of MENA people thier little square was packed with migrants just standing around smoking drinking beer.

TruxtonSpangler's picture

Going according to plan. Shame on Turkey for parking themsleves in such a strategic pipeline location. Compounded by being a NATO signatory. The Ghulenists love the developments. Ottomania!

chunga's picture

The NSA spy machine has to have serious blackmail goods on all of Europe's leaders. Central to all these hotspots seems to be the not so hidden effort by NATO/USSA to hurt Russia by depriving them from selling gas. How much of it are they going to take?

I'm still also of the belier that Germany would have been fine with throwing Greece out of the EU were it not for direct intervention by Jacob "Jack" Lew. That would be one step closer to a NATO exit and we can't have that. Germany ate their USSA peas and then threw a tantrum by heaping on an extra helping of austerity, but still towed the line. What did Merkel hear when she broke out in tears while sitting with oBama and hOllande?

Then we've got China's stawk morket going down the tube with the explanation that "fundamentals matter" over there, but not here in the land of greenspan/bernake/yellin chronic QE bubble/fraud machine. The cynic in me says maybe there has been some covert intervention/tampering.

If they pay attention to this pRezidential election bullshit overseas, J6P from everywhere else has got to be scratching their heads over candidtaes 1 - 17 agree to the urgent need to "strengthen the military". For what reason? They seem to be fucking with everybody already w/o much resistence just fine as it is.

techpreist's picture

The NSA spy machine has to have serious blackmail goods on all of Europe's leaders.

Not 100% relevant, but the reason gay marriage passed in Iowa back in the day, was because some activsts snapped pics of some state officials in gay bars/bathouses, and told them to support them or have the pics mailed to every church leader in their district.

As a politician you are 'above the law' right up until there's a chance you step out of line.

chunga's picture

That makes me think of Snowden hiding from the eye of sauron in russia somewhere.

ebworthen's picture

And wasn't the U.S. "protecting the Kurds" from Saddam?  And aren't the Kurds our "allies" against ISIL?  Or were we protecting them from the "dictator" Assad of Syria who is the only one protecting Christians and Jews from ISIL?

What the hell do we have to do with any of that, other than growing poppies for the CIA and selling and expending munitions for the M.I.C.?  Warnings of George Washington about "foreign entanglements" and Dwight D. Eisenhower about the dangers of the Military Industrial Complex completely ignored.

Just make sure you go out to Chipotle for lunch, then the Apple store, then go see a movie of re-hased heroes that celebrate "Amurika" while burning a lot of gasoline and never thinking of the insanity that is the New Rome, Mordor on the Potomac.

Nobody For President's picture

Its about oil motherfucker - OIL. (And a pipeline through Syria...)

This is not rocket science or huge conspiracies - it's about OIL.

Sheesh.

thamnosma's picture

Really?  What oil did we get out of Iraq?  Most went to China as far as I know.  This is about chaos.

Macon Richardson's picture

Please! I'm tring to eat and you bring up the image of Victoria Nudelman's knickers. The only image more disgusting is the Hildebeast's knickers.

Gaak! I'm completely off my food now!

DC Exile's picture

LOL. Although, I have a hard time imagining Nuland/Kagan wearing panties. Or having the ability to cream anything.

Maybe peeing -- with delight -- her Adult Depends?

And as a side note, I kid you not, did you know Snuggies makes an actual Adult "Baby Diaper?" I mean like an actual baby diaper. Waist sizes 28" to 48". You can order in bulk off their website (check out this baby's hairy legs & torso): 

https://snuggiesdiapers.com/en/diapers/waddler-case-large

doctor10's picture

Libya, Egypt redux.  'Cept this time its Turkey/Syria

conscious being's picture

They must have a playbook and call these out by the numbers. Nice catch. The neighbor, following NeoCon orders, helps to destabalise their neighbor and then the contradictions/ chaos/ stress that causes internally makes the Neocon puppet blow-up. Go long RandMcNally. People are going to need new maps.

techpreist's picture

No need to worry, it's contained in subprime!

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2sR53w7DoDY

Now, with countries instead of counties!

Oh regional Indian's picture

What a pox Vulcan loosed upon the earth, one of the fallen ones...

For all those people who hold the dream of Solly's NEW temple in Heru Salem, remember that the original architect walked into molten fire to meet Vulcan...

Who is possessed and who is dis-possessed is a hard tell in this time of jumbled history...

Most people here seem fine taking their parents inheritance (homes, money, jewellery etc., going back to their great great grandfaters even), but not their collective sins, the ugly side of the same inheritance...

Stuck in hypocrisy we are...

 

chunga's picture

Pipelines are very dangerous!

Peter Pan's picture

There are prophecies foreseeing the breakup of Turkey as well as the coming out of many millions of crypto-Christians who have kept their faith but who await the right moment for an uprising.

Time will tell.

Until then....more complexity and another powder keg.

miker's picture

There will come a time when holding all of this mess together wil not be possible.

Pliskin's picture

And there you go folks, the people who can make or break Turkey (Or ANY country)  Goldman said..."."  Barclays said ..."."

 

sun tzu's picture

Join the military or CIA to help your ZioCon bankster overlords destroy the world.

 

Uncle Shlomo need you!

MSimon's picture

Too late. Uncle already has you.

CheapBastard's picture

They're going to feel some Blowback they go sticking those nose where it don't belong.

Pliskin's picture

Erdogan killed in a style similar to Gadaffi (Fucked up the ass with a sword)

Assad killed in a style similar to Gadaffi (Fucked up the ass with a sword)

bigmikeO's picture

If muslims or liberals are involved, your society will eventually be reduced to a pile of steaming shit. That's what they do best.

clade7's picture

One need look no farther than Detroit to give credence to your post...

toady's picture

Detroit was Muslim and black.  The liberal was just a side effect of the black.

NoWayJose's picture

Why not fight your own people - especially since you are also fighting the Kurds, and ISIS, and any other terrorist group the U.S. can invent.

And whatever happened to that terrorist group in northern Syria that Obama said was more dangerous than ISIS? The one nobody had ever heard of?

Pliskin's picture

"And whatever happened to that terrorist group in northern Syria that Obama said was more dangerous than ISIS? The one nobody had ever heard of?"

Ahh, those guys, oh yeh, they turned out to be 'cool', they we're actually very moderate, so we armed and funded them.

Don't worry about it dude, .gov's got it all under control.

What about that Bobbi Christina toxic cocktail though, eh?

toady's picture

I believe that terrorist group in northern Syria is called Turkey. Why else would the US work with them? 

NoWayJose's picture

Turkey is full of the ancient ruins of once great cities and civilizations. Now we know why.

Allen_H's picture

Release the kraken !  (insert loony laugh here), And Turky deserves a good payback, the fucking scum terrorists.

Monetas's picture
Monetas (not verified) Aug 8, 2015 11:05 AM

Erdogan is a war criminal .... he denies the Armenian Genocide .... while commiting his own against the Kurds !

DonutBoy's picture

If we are successful in removing Assad, who will rule Syria?   No one.  Syria will break-up into feudal regions run by various factions of ISIS, Hamas, and generally whatever group can do the most killing in any particular area.  It will be a more violent country then it is now.  In this process of destroying the Syrian state we'll turn a blind-eye towards Ergodan's violence against internal political opposition, and allow him to strike the Kurds with American money and weapons.  This will help cement his position as the dictator of Turkey as he steers it away from a modern democracy back to an autocratic Islamic state.  We have it completely inverted.  We're so caught up in our own rhetoric we can't see what's on the ground.  I wish Henry Kissinger was back.

Allen_H's picture

In other words, jewMerikunt gangs, we all know this(okay, not all, not the fucking pathetic sheep, hard to believe people do not know the reality, that they could be so oblivious, it always fuck me over when I start speaking to somebody.)

Monetas's picture
Monetas (not verified) DonutBoy Aug 8, 2015 11:10 AM

Assad was more tolerant of the religious minorities !

Allen_H's picture

He is very, he is not religious himself, but believes people are free to be what they want.