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Is The "Smart Money" Ready To Bet On Gold?
For the last three weeks, gold has experienced something that has never happened before - hedge funds aggregate net position has been short for the first time in history.
However, as Dana Lyons notes, this week saw another 'historic' shift in gold positioning as commercial hedgers shifted to the least hedged since 2001... so the 'fast' money is chasing momentum and the 'smart' money is lifting hedges into them.
It’s no secret that commodities have taken a drubbing during the deflationary spiral over the past year. And precious metals have been right up front in this beating. This includes gold, which has lost over 40% of its value the past 4 years. So needless to say, there has not been much good news on that front. However, as we touched on in a piece two weeks ago, there are signs beginning to pop up that may provide a glimmer of hope for gold bugs. In dollar terms, the price of gold continues to leak, offering very little evidence of any impending stability or bounce. On the other hand, in Euro terms, gold prices reached a key juncture a few weeks ago, as outlined in that previous post. And while no bounce has materialized as of yet, gold has at least held at the level we noted.
Today’s Chart Of The Day offers another hopeful data point for gold bulls. The CFTC tracks the net positioning of various groups of traders in the futures market in a report called the Commitment Of Traders (COT). One such group is called Commercial Hedgers. As their name implies, their main function in the futures market is to hedge. And while the Non-Commercial Speculators tend to be trend-following funds, the Commercial Hedgers’ postions tend to move contrary to price trends. Thus, it is almost always the case that these Hedgers will be correctly positioned – and to an extreme – at major turning points in a market.
How is that relevant for gold? As of this week, Commercial Hedgers are holding the lowest net short position in gold futures since the launch of the gold bull market in 2001.
Does this mean that a reversal higher is imminent in gold? Not necessarily. The thing with COT analysis is that it is difficult to correctly determine when an “extreme” in Hedgers’ positioning will actually result in a price reversal. As is said regarding all sorts of market metrics, an extreme in COT positioning can always get more extreme. Plus, the COT positioning can peak well in advance of the turn. Consider the Hedgers’ maximum net short positioning in gold futures which occurred in December 2009, 21 months – and another 50% gold rally – before prices topped.
Thus, it is tough to time trades with accuracy based on the COT report. However, one thing we can say in the gold bugs’ favor: what had mostly been a headwind for gold for the past decade or so is no longer the case. While it may not make an immediate impact, the “smart money” Commercial Hedgers are now more aligned with them than at any point since the bull market began in 2001.
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One shouldn't have the attitude of "betting" on gold or silver. They are merely a prudent form of savings - and a hedge against criminal fiat manipulators.
Yeah, but the miners who survive this drubbing will be a generational BUY market-wise, when this is all over.
This is a pretty good rebuttal to any commentators or financial advisors who think zero is the proper allocation to precious metals. Anyone who holds this view, and there are a lot of them, is not paying attention to the currency economic environment.
"Smart money ready to bet on gold?"
Don't get your hopes up...
Every time gold goes down, my mailbox gets flooded with email 'newsletters' from Schiff, Goldmoney, Maloney, Sprott, Matterhorn (Egon von Greyerz) and all the other usual suspects. Each time telling me that "THIS is the time to get in," all the way down from $1900...
Anybody remember these ZH articles about China Commodity Financing Deals, CCFD's from a little over 1 year ago?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-09/bronze-swan-lands-goldman-expla...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-04/china-scrambling-after-discover...
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-22/how-china-imported-record-70-bi...
Remember how the general consensus here was that this would be bullish for gold?
"In other words, from a purely mechanistical standpoint, the unwind of China's shadow banking system, while negative for all non-precious metals-based commodities, may be just the gift that all those patient gold (and silver) investors have been waiting for. This of course, excludes the impact of what the bursting of the Chinese credit bubble would do to faith in the globalized, debt-driven status quo. Add that into the picture, and into the future demand for gold, and suddenly things get really exciting."
Sure...
SMART money is out or soon out of all gold. gold is redick. useless.
if gold is useless why are all central banks loaded up with the stuff and countries are conquered and plundered for it
same old lines too from gold sellers:
see above
Last time I checked Janet is going to be raising the roof on rates, strong dollah and that will wreck gold...
Why buy now when you can get later for less?
Because when you "can get later for less" you will have even less with which to get it.
Smart money will bet on gold, smarter money will bet on silver and brilliant minds will buy Bitcoins...
No, brilliant minds will buy all three in the correct proportions.
The truth is we really don't know if gold is money any more. It definitely was until 1973, and it may be again in some future monetary system. Right now it really is just a commodity to be jacked around by speculators.
Don't worry, I have some gold, silver, beans and lead -- just in case. The future is unknowable unless you are blankfien or dimon. But I wonder if I've made a mistake. If the dollar starts hyperinflating, swiss francs is probably the easier and cheaper way to ride out the storm.
You did not address his question.
Smart money are always betting in Gold. Just which direction they are betting changes.
miliu_01 gets it.
Central Banks were net sellers when gold was bottoming near $200. They reflect the "collective"..
I'll look at gold when the Central Banks are again net sellers.. May be near 681..
..
Gold is fer spendin, not saving.
Gold is insurance. You don't get rid of your insurance.
Such a pisser when you see your PM insurance drop so much over the last 5 years .. Perhaps a bitcoin hedge would have worked ? That same 5 years would have seen the PM 'insurance' drop covered by around 100 x by gains in a bitcoin position. Hedge Accordingly .....
Bitcoin has been around 7 years. Get back to us when it has grown up and is out of diapers.
If it is still around in another 5 you might have a case.
Right now it is the internet's pet rock.
Bitcoin is very easy to buy. Hard to sell. Just like any good con. They'll take your money, but try getting it back. If all you've done is buy, and not field tested the various exits -- you may be in for a very rough surprise.
Don't come crying on ZH when you lose everything. One very large dealer already cleaned out all their clients and went to the Caribbean.
Hard to sell?
www.coinbase.com
www.circle.com
actually...
https://btc-e.com/
https://www.kraken.com/
https://www.bitfinex.com/
https://www.bitstamp.net/
https://www.coinsetter.com/
https://www.itbit.com/
Those are just the most popular.
Think BTC is going to crash? Short it with 25x futures - https://www.bitmex.com
Haha, you were conveniently absent from the article mentioning the recent drop in BTC.
Double Post , Ahem Double Penetration ...
Cancel The DP .
OK. Buy some SnP or Bitcoin.
Go ahead, have fun.
gold is redick. useless.
I know, right? Like, Totes McGoats. Faggot.
If gold is so useless why would China buy so much of it? The way they are jacking around their own markets one wonders if they even care about their economy...they could flush their whole system and begin anew with a gold backed...something.
I've often felt Obama is trying to crash the US$ on purpose too but...not much gold to back something else. It all makes no real sense to me with out being able to see a clear net benefit in the end game.
The Chinese are buying so much because it looks pretty and they think it'll go up. When they totally crash, they're going to rush into US dollars as they rush out of their country into the US. Also, they're going to rush into cash in order to pay off their debts (in borrowed US dollars).
Russia and China have been net buyers all the way down and Iran started trading oil in Gold not USD ? I seriously doubt they are doing these things because they do not understand the manipulations and the RESET that is already in motion ?
Americans have become fat, dumb, lazy, spoiled and cowardly. So the control freaks can easily control the masses especially the thinking part ? Americans do not think about much of anything except for their own materialism that conrtrols them 100% ! So they are clueless to how the control freaks play them.
None of the insanity we see before us should be any surprise given these simple and basic facts. We now live in a corporatocracy and of course they wil try to keep that system alive and well with lies and disortions of all manner. But history tells a very different story about fiats and metals as well as failed systems that were based on manipulations ! We are simply seeing the system failing right before our eyes, economically and of course politcally and socially. Many here will be victims for numerous reasons. some already are and don't even realize it. Go look in the mirror and see if you fall into the items mentioned about Americans ? 70% do and the rest are NOT thinking too well ! :)
There is a much better way to be sure and that is what I teach ! the only other option is to do nothing and stay exactly the same ? and you will get exactly what you deserve for that as well .
Imitation is the highest form of flattery. So damn spot on it had to be repeated:
Americans have become fat, dumb, lazy, spoiled and cowardly. So the control freaks can easily control the masses especially the thinking part ? Americans do not think about much of anything except for their own materialism that conrtrols them 100% ! So they are clueless to how the control freaks play them.
We're talking paper gold here. When they start demanding the shiny stuff, the actual mining sector will improve for awhile till the various governments nationalize them for their own good. Between Huxley, Orwell and Rand, we have the script for doomsday.....
Paper is only useful for wiping your ass.
That is categorically and absolutely dead wrong!!!
Paper is extremely useful for writing shit down...
Like IOUs?
Jackie Treehorn uses paper for drawing dirty pictures. He also treats objects like women.
Stay out of my beach community ...jerk off
I hope that doesn't offend you, I am a fat, dumb, lazy coward.
Agree, the Chinese, Russia and others are NOT playing the paper game we have here in USSA today. Here in USSA we all live in massive illusions, and they are many !
Interesting you say that... today over at King World they interviewed Rick Rule and he and Sprott USA are offering a free portfolio evalution for Junior resource stocks in preparation for who will survive, and who will be a good bet when we come out of this market.
http://www.examiner.com/article/sprott-usa-offers-free-portfolio-analysis-for-everyone-junior-resource-stocks
Dovie'andi se tovya sagain (It's time to toss the dice)
The Daily Economist
Yeah I sent them my portfolio of miners I just bought. Let's see what they say.
If you can stomach it's going to down to 5 on its way to 100, why not just buy ASA now? You need not try to pick the survivors.
Exactly. Let the traders trade. But investors, those who buy physical gold, should not be sucked into pseudo-intellectual arguments of fast money, smart money, etc. Buy your gold, be happy to have it, and sleep well at night.
"...may provide a glimmer of hope for gold bugs."
Stopped right there. Buncha bunk.
Gold is in a 2,000 year bull market.
Prudent form of savings? That pays no dividend and dropped 40% in value over past 5 years? The DJIA is up 80% and my income generating properties are up probably 100% and tax sheltered due to depreciation.
Gold is jewelry today. Probably worth about $800/oz due to Chinese consumers recession and millennials increasing dislike for traditional trappings of wealth.
RIP Gold as a hedge.
what are you going to do when the market crashes 50% in a quarter like 2008? What if the next crash is bigger? What are you going to do when all your income-generating properties...stop generating income...because your tenents don't have jobs anymore or their dollar is worth 1/3rd of what it was worth?
RIP ZeroNero's wealth
What if, what if.
The only investment you greedy humans should be making is in GOD!
Word!
And again I say unto you, It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God.
I remember seeing signs that said "Jesus Saves".
If the mother fucker has been saving for the last two thousand year, he must be loaded.
Sorry but I think you are in the wrong chat. This is for greedy humans, you have a choice..
Go Uplift those that need your rettoric about GOD. *UMB*SS Why are you here, ever ask YOURSELF that question?
and when the SnP crashes '50%', know that within the listed companies they will have removed those that went to zero and added others that didnt drop as much as the others
so your 'previous' SnP will have lost more like 70%
do you think gold is gonna go to $350? With production costs at $1200?
I don't think anyone knows where the fractional price of PM is going to, as the miners take on even more debt to bring their costs down. Does any of what I just said make sense to anyone? None of this is a secret either.
Depends on HOW you are saving. If you use a bank, what are they paying you in interest, today? I get a few pennies on my checking account. Meh!! I'd rather they not have my Social Insecurity Number and just allow the IRS to withhold 28% of a few pennies to gain back some long-lost liberty!
This, combined with upcoming bank holidays (HINT: take out some fiat right now and hide it for that Rainy Month, you shall thank me later!) makes PM's a no-brainer.
ZN... I understand your comment about a 40% drop in gold. Again... you mustn't look at the short term manipulations when discussing saving REAL money. Believe me... the PMs WILL hold there intrinsic value over time - that's the whole point. If you disagree... go ahead and play the market... leverage with margins... but, don't blame anyone but yourself when you're standing on that window ledge after the next major crash.
There is no such thing as intrinsic value.
All measurements of value are subjective...
Wow.
Y'know philosophically, I wouldn't argue with you, but I get paid either paper or digital credits. I usually take the paper and buy stuff. If I don't buy stuff with the paper it just sits there, stacking up, doing nothing. I'm all for that, but jeez, at the end of the day, it's a fucking stack of paper. So, pardon me, if I feel a certain queasy feeling and go down to a local coin shop and purchase a RARE element that has monetary value. Plus, it is really pretty, nice and shiny, and holy motherfucker, is the ONLY monetary instrument that CANNOT STORE RADIOACTIVITY! That means it really will last forever and it can never hurt you! How cool is that!
Im far from a Goldbug but you have little substance when it comes to trading or investing. No dividend? You slap calls every month in the futures market and rip out 15% every year without even thinking... which makes me think you dont even think on an amoebic level. A 10% allocation is not only prudent but mandatory.
@zeronero...read your bio. You sound like the kinda guy we used to beat the fuck out of. Imma itchin for the old days.
"Dropped 40%" in nominal value terms of a completely debased currency.
Enjoy that counterparty risk loaf when the SHTF, slick.
I agree with J S Bach, but the price of Gold is alway's rising in the bigger picture. As inflation devalues the savings in your bank account your gold stack will still retain its spending power.
Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium
https://www.eurgold.eu
Well said, J S! Gold is also a hedge against Chaos.
One should follow the trend.
Short paper.
Stock phys.
One shouldn't have the attitude of "betting" on gold or silver. They are merely a prudent form of savings - and a hedge against criminal fiat manipulators. merely?
Thats why I'm betting on it.
Paper gold. Who cares?
Well, if the betters "bet", this will make the physical stacking a little more expensive.
Oh, it's coming.
One more last deep plunge (where you may or may not be able to aquire phyzz), and then it's on like Donkey Kong.
Get it while you can. This a generational buy. You might not see the day when you need it, but damn sure your kids will.
Oh, and don't forget the gold/silver ratio favors silver right now.
Sounds just like when I wanted to buy after the 2008 crash. Yeah, the nominal price of silver was $9 an ounce, but there was 0 for sale at that price. There was hardly any for sale at all. We're seeing something similar now; silver is $14 an ounce but I'm having trouble finding anything under $16. Same with gold. Then again, none of these paper buyers are looking to take delivery.
And yeah, I really like silver as it has both PM and industrial value, and the American Chemical Society lists it as one of the 'endangered elements' i.e. supply shocks *will* be coming unless we see wide-scale abandonment of solar and electronics.
You got it right, bro.
This next paper crash, have fun finding physical.
Now, mind you, I do day trade........but this is another ordeal here and now.
I am actively buying 100oz bars of silver weekly. You think I'm the only one?
Everybody, with all the JPM crap etc, do the MATH.
on edit: yes, I do remember "those days". I made a killing shorting Morgan Stanley in 5 minutes. I missed Lehman by a very short time, my options expired.
I probably should change my avatar to one where I'm holding one of my JM 100's. Be looking for that soon.
What a difference a score (20 years) makes! I smoked Marlboro 100's then and collect 100's in silver today.
You'll need it for when you're stage 4.
I've been giving the same warning and more than once in this very forum to anyone who will perk up their brain cells and comprehend. The hands as mine are stronger than ever and we've seen enough of the economic chutzpah given by TPTB. I won't disclose how long I've been stacking, but I've seen the bank$ter's graffiti on the wall for long enough.
You're already winning big - in ways neither of us quite realize. The Big Squeeze will be something to behold, and it can't come soon enough, although I fully expect more resistance, even a mini-depression in the PM prices before the Market takes charge, kicks asses and takes names.
Hold on tight, cowboy! You're in the bucking chute now and the bull is ready. Are YOU?
So I should quit using my 1 kilogram Ag Freedom Girl as a doorstop?
Heidi Wastweet knocked it out of the park with this beautiful design, later works, not so much (IMHO).
Welcome to ZH Montani. She's not a bad looking gal either. Thinking class of 75. Am I close?
On the money.
Alright, I give, how did you know that? And BTW I wasn't trying to steal your avatar.
Read your years on the job. Fig'd you graduated and fucked off for a bit or signed a 2-3 year deal in the Navy, or college, and did the math. Btw, I am from Butte, Montani and I lived in New Orleans in 2007- we might have crossed paths. Your avatar is beautimous.
Try buying platinum. Very few dealers have any at all.
Who would junk that comment? It's true, buying platinum is a bitch.
The same people who have never tried to take out large sums of fiat in $1's or quarters. Really you can't go down to your local bank and take out $10k in $1's without a lot of problems. Others can say there is no shortage but try buying in weird amounts and see none of this stuff is easy to get. Sure you can buy kilos online, but try to buy a large sum of kilos in smaller amounts. Another wacky forum was posting how to check stock of some online dealers. You can sort of buy in small amounts, but this is not happening in large quantities.
I use quarters above because I was going to be driving to a lot of places with meters. What a PITA to get $500 in quarters. I use $1's because well sometimes a huge stack of fiat is funny. And now try to use $100 bill at a taco truck. its all fake.
Immaterial.
My hedge continues.
Prudent enough.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXI3-4c67WY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndZ4tSyLYbo
Someday the world will shut these idiots down, longs and shorts.
There is no gold on the Comex, unless you call 120 to 1 paper/gold real.
And don't forget, there is always the CFTC iregulators to jack margins, like they did 5 times in row when silver was collapsing a few years ago.
Crooks.
In August still currently 21 tons standing against an available measly 15 ton.
Quit rolling you maggots and end this crap.
Chief, it didn't collapse until after the 5 margin hikes.
Trading paper is ok, until it dawned on the bankers that trading gold and silver paper or not, was a tremendous put on fiat currencies everywhere.
Right now they are winning. In life, today's winners are tomorrows losers. It is the Ying and Yang of our existence.
Commercials were long many times in the 1990s. There might be a rally chance when they hit 50,000 net long. Why place bets on insurance though?
At these prices, ima bout done buying my gold/silver. Never say never again. One more plunge and I will buy on credit, as long as delivery is promised. Got a stash surrounded by my survivalist neighbors already.
More beans, bullits, guns are now in order. Hunting and gardening all around my "block".
Bring it.
We will be collecting the gold, silver, land, cows and sheep, homes, and so on if this collapses. That is historically documented fact. Give a man an ounce of gold, he can eat for a month, teach him how to get it and...
Time to Get Zee Gold:-)
"This includes gold, which has lost over 40% of its value the past 4 years."
My ounces are still ounces. They are the most perfect money in existence. The dollar has been in a speculative bubble the past 4 years and can easily crash at any time thereby reverting to the true value of fiat. ZERO.
Yet you could have bought more ounces today than 4 years ago....you would prefer mire ounces correct ????? While I understand you have had insurance these past 4 years against a collapse of USD hyperinflation, that for whatever reason has not yet happened. But to say your ounces are still ounces, makes no sense to me and I get pissed when I hear it....Gold should be over $2500USD minimum or you could buy MORE ounces today....why you don't care about these two scenarios is beyond me.
"But to say your ounces are still ounces, makes no sense to me"
When did an ounce ever stop being an ounce? LOL
Gold is constant. Fiat is the variable
Er, don't leave out the Paper Gold. Their ounces are promises, especially NOW!
Remember too. Trust the government? Ask an American Indian.
He's looking at it from an insurance perspective. You are looking at it from an investment perspective.
I read gold sales are very brisk in China with lots of then buying from the Perth Mint. Some of those stores in China and HK have breathtaking 24k gold items...dragons, peacocks, etc
I've seen those when I was in China, as well. I wouldn't pay the premium for a decorative statue though, esp. since you won't sell it for more than junk metal value.
The truly "smart" money and investors have never put an ounce of faith in gold.
That's why Warren Buffet is sitting on $70 billion, and the gold bugs are just sitting there rubbing their two gold coins together.
Its amzing how many athholes and idiots just want to take a smarmy-ass poke at gold, and gold bugs.
Why is that? They have nothing better to do but take shots at a thinly traded market they dont like?
Do they take shots at the natgas market? Do they take shots at RE trusts? No. Just gold.
Very interesting...and suspicious.
perhaps thats because there's been 3 articles everyday on ZH since 2009 to recommend buying gold ??? whereas for natgas, it must be one every 3months...
Does that frustrate you?
Yes, and Anapholes has been here a whole nine weeks. Can not wait for all paper promises to go to zero and rub their faces in it, they so deserve it.
Lucky guy, he hasn't been exposed to all the bullish Gold propaganda for the last 3 years.
How do you know that he doesn't own gold? He could be sitting on billions in PMs. He's just too smart to say anything.
He's too smart to own gold.
He's too smart to tell anyone what he really owns.
Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway bought 127 million ounces of physical silver in 1998.
There are stories about why he gave it up, something to do with SLV..
http://www.cmi-gold-silver.com/monetarydigests/warren-buffett-buys-silver/
WB likes silver, bitchezz. He just couldn't keep it. Silly Wabbit Warren.
Silver is differnet than gold. About half the annual production of silver is used industrially, but only 12% of gold. There is a 500 year stockpile of gold, but only a decade or two of silver stockpiled.
DESIRE that's attached to gold is far differnt than an actual USE for the metal as with silver.
Buffet no longer has any silver, and has never had any gold.
Maybe you could add a Charlie Munger quote to bolster your fine and well reasoned argument?
Where do these fucktards come from anyway?
8 weeks, 4 days. nuff said Bay. Doesn't understand the purpose/function of gold - or any other asset for that matter and doesn't square his own observation with the knowledge that if gold is not worth anything, then why are central banks accumulating it? and of course, this speaks to the much larger gap in their intelligence in that he does not understand how the monetary system in an economy works in general, the effects of fiat expansion and ZIRP in particular. Fuck him.
Silver vs Gold.. Where to start?
Yes, silver has tremedous industrial use. Gold has little industrial use. BOTH are money, that I have no doubts.
Gold makes wonderful jewelry and is fantastic toothy crown metal. I have several myself which gives away my age - yet gold is recycled. Silver? Not near as much as the costs involved with the small amounts of silver used in such applications makes it far more disposable.
Both metals will soon thrive. One will clearly have more volatility than the other for so many reasons.
Yeah If industrial production crashes big time what happens to industrial silver consumption? Will investment demand absorb most of that? Will mine production of silver drop more rapidly thereby offsetting that loss in demand?
Where does that 500 year stockpile reside? Are visitors/spectators allowed to see it...?
Silver also comes out of the ground at 15 to 1 as the bi product of mining gold. So if Gold goes up in value, you end up with a lot of silver.
Most of the silver as a "byproduct" isn't from gold mines, it's from copper, lead and zinc mines.
Anopheles
Why do people grab generic silver rounds when the visit coin shops and silver eagles are sold out. Aren't they just about junk silver?
First, Warren Buffet's success is the product of American success after WW-II. America's dominance of world markets, including banking, created enormous prosperity that he just had to stand in front of. Today he is a celebrity investor, he gets sweetheart deals just for joining in. If Warren's in the deal, it's A LOT easier to sell, and he gets a superior return. He takes far less risk that you or I in the same deal.
Don't get me wrong, he's a brilliant investor, and probably the best in the world at making money. But notice that he has no idea how to spend it. He's so cheap that he has no personal fear of loosing his money, because he could easily live on 1/1000th of it. Remember the 2nd richest man in the world gave all his money to the first richest ... Warren doesn't care about money.
Warren is business geek, his life is about collecting and running producitve businesses. Gold is for preserving enough wealth to live well for 30+ years after you retire, and still have something left to pass on to your kids. Warren simply doesn't need to preserve wealth, and gold is unproductive and so it doesn't spin his crank.
If you stuff $70 Billion cash under the mattress or $70 Billion gold , is there really any difference? Both are sitting there doing nothing. Neither values are static.
True, but you miss what GOLD is supposed to be! I don't consider it an investment, but monetary insurance. It's absolutely the ultimate financial kryptonite to criminal bank$ters. "Get" that and protect your phyzz with a good safe outside of the "system" and/or a loaded Glock and you'll sleep better as I do. Really!
You're half right. Actually, the cash is doing something: it's slowly losing value over time.
Wow!!! You are fucking clueless!!!
If in 1925 your family member hid $1,000 under the floor boards of a house that you have inherited, which would you rather be true?
A) the relative stashed 50 of $20 gold coins.
or
B) the relative stashed 50 of $20 paper bills.
Dude , you're making the same point as me. The topic is Warren Buffet and gold. Mr Buffet is known for disliking gold. I'm saying that cash under the mattress can be a "non-productive" asset as well.
read this http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold-cm267928
YOU are the ONLY one who is saying to stuff cash in your mattress.
Buffet certainly doesn't have his $70 billion under his mattress. That money is WORKING for him, earning him MORE money.
Your gold? What's it doing exactly?
http://blogs.reuters.com/james-saft/2014/08/20/buffett-hoards-cash-indiv...
The term CASH to a COMPANY, doesn't mean paper bills.
But then believe, what you will.
Generally yes, but cash is actually better when you have true defltion. (not todays stagflation).
Exeters pyramid sums it up nicely. At the bottom are cash and gold/(silver is money not a genuine store of value in itself like gold)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/exter-inverted-pyramid-refresher
Warren is in a whole different ball game than the rest of us.He can afford to lose 90% of his wealth and he will still be just fine as for the rest of us Im not so sure that work work out well.
I always wished that a speeding ticket was one days salary. treat everybody equal
Indeed, it was SILVER which he had millions in, but you conveniently left that out, didn't ya? ;-)
uncle warren and his crummy toady charlie munger would have been wiped out in 2008, if he did have his fed stoges bail him out.
LOL, yah the truelly "smart" investors are buying morgate backed securities and Greek bonds.
Put all your money into the EURO!!
;)
For 8 weeks being here you think you are pretty smart. If anyone had the constant whispers and taps on the shoulder that Buffet had we would all be rich. Its all rigged and Buffet is in on it. But you haven't mentioned that fact yet. That's cuz you are a fucking TROLL so fuck off!
I am a Petroleum Engineer and as i have maintained for a LONG TIME, teh problem is the manipulated public markets......ALL of them. One should get their land, oil, NGas, just as they get their PMs.......in Phyz......cause if you don't' hold it......you will NOT own it when all this manipulation finally reverts to teh mean.
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I've personally been coming here for 8 yrs. Great financial advice on many subjects for someone not versed such as myself. I'm grateful and learned a lot. But i've noticed some strange things of late. Not unlike "negative" recs on my above post.
Can someone who negatively recced that post please explain?
Spam. I didn't neg it, couldn't be bothered, but that's what it is. Spam. The reaction is pretty standard on the Hedge. Especially if you're selling your mumma on her knees.
Hey Imagery
I was a Pet E in 1980 and got out after working as a roughneck near CS for 8 months (hardest work I ever did tripping 2 miles of pipe) . Gig'em Went into Finance and later IT .
Got a question. Just bought some land and will eventually need to acquire propane. Do you know? Whats the average tank size would a residential person need to go 6 months with average use of 2 person houselhold?
Gig 'em....Class of 1987.
Storage is function of demand which is function of your appliances, etal. I would think a 500 Gal Tank would be more than enough. They come coated w/ Anode Beds for Burial for small added cost taht i would highly recommend.
Good Luck.
If you can, get your dickskinners on PMs...it all works out, especially if you are young and single and make a lot of fiat money and have nothing else to spend it on...dont do it to 'save yourself' just do it because you like the feel of it, or the sound of it or whatever, no emotional attachment either...it pays off sooner or later..did for me a few times in my life anyway, but I am a simple Man, I like to work and dont like to spend and I dont golf..plus, chicks dig it, so theres that benefit to consider if you are not gay that is....
Sure, Gold must be worthless if they take so much effort to short it.. and we take so much time talking about it.... must be just like the gravel in my driveway...
When the evil empire is destroyed we'll see how much it is worth. Or more exactly, what other things are worth in relation to it.
WW3 started a while ago - US and worthless western fat ass welfare debt fiat vs Gold.... was the first battle.... will the outcome be decided sooner, or later? remains to be seen
Pardon an ignorant question but do the insiders ever go long gold publicly? One of the benefits of holding is that you don't have to worry yourself with the short term moves of the "smart money" so I honestly don't know, I figured that watching for insider moves was for other markets and that gold was nearly always supressed and downplayed.
If everyone on the planet had a Ton of Gold each, the world would be a much happier and better place.
Sooner or later gold will be produced in a lab. What will happen to its value then? It will be priced relative to energy, that's all.
Energy may be the best store of value in the future, but it may be expensive to create or store at present relative to future technologies.
Gold is not inherently any better a store of value than anything else. Demand for gold is way down. Gold will only be useful in a crash scenario IF things revert to as they were in the past. In any of the other infinite possible crash scenarios, gold may be worthless.
It's nothing but a gamble - just like everything else. One that many morons are attracted to because of their beliefs. One that many con artists are also attracted to, and even a few rational people.
I look at the possibility of scientific gold alchemy in the same way I look at "free energy", while it it may exist until we see it it's not a factor. Energy is a great store of value but it can be supressed for long periods of time in environments where gold will thrive. Going from one to the other may be ideal.
"LOok everything is made of light according to e=mc2! Light is free, so everythning must be worthless."
I definitely wouldn't put those in the same category. Gold can theoretically be created by nuclear reactions. It's not economical with our current technology.
The fundamental value of gold is that it's a shiny object. The fundamental value of energy is that people can use it to do things. I think energy will always be more valuable than gold.
The fundamental value of gold is that it is perfect money. Let's review:
It's divisible (you can't say the same for a Van Gogh)
It's portable (more value per ounce makes it more attractive than copper and silver -- or a barrel of oil)
It's durable (unlike a bushel of wheat)
It's uniform (one troy ounce of gold is worth the same everywhere on earth; you can't say that for an acre of land)
Its supply is limited (unlike fiat currency, or grains of sand)
It's a proven store of value (for example, today a $20 FRN printed in 1913 is only worth a fraction of a $20 double eagle minted in 1913)
It's accepted by everyone (5000 years of history prove it; heck, even Central Bankers love it, although they'll never admit)
And here are reasons it's NOT perfect for money:
- It's not actually useful for anything. (Shiny objects used to be a major form of human entertainment, which is partly why it was so valuable in the past.)
- Its supply is too limited. (Most humans have little or none, so they'll be forced to use something else as currency. It's too difficult for new humans to procure gold.)
- It's too difficult to manipulate. (Most animals want to manipulate others. Gold appeals to the weak who are trying to avoid being manipulated themselves, but not to the more powerful.)
- It used to be used as money but no longer is. (History is against it. History demonstrates its gradual and complete obsolescence.)
- Science will probably make it obsolete as well. (Gold is just one of the elements. There are many more, and to focus all of our attention on a single one would be to miss something in the bigger picture.)
It's not actually useful for anything.
I just demonstrated why it's useful as money.
Its supply is too limited. Most humans have little or none, so they'll be forced to use something else as currency.
What??? Are you for real??? Gold is divisible. And just what everybody needs, more currencies that can be created to infinity.
It's too difficult to manipulate ...
Now I know you're not in your right mind. Either you're a troll or a moron. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume the former. No reason to continue ...
Ideal money would be useful for something other than simply money. For example, if wheat was money it would be useful for eating, even if it ceased to be useful for money. One of the things we dislike about fiat currency is that it's not worth much as paper, stripped of its value as money. Gold is also not worth much in and of itself unless you like jewerly or shiny objects.
If your money is only valuable as money, that means that you're always betting on the money system staying in place by holding it. Contrast this with a barter system where everything is valuable in itself.
Yes, gold is divisible, but there are practical problems to trading with gold shavings. They'd be easy to lose and much hard to verify the authenticity of.
Too difficult to manipulate is not trolling, it's simple logic. If at least the most powerful 25% of human beings want to manipulate others, then they will not wish to embrace gold as currency. This fact alone makes gold currency less likely, less certain, and more volatile. So much for your perfect currency.