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This Wasn't Supposed To Happen: Household Spending Expectations Crash

Tyler Durden's picture




 

One of the biggest drivers of the so-called recovery (in addition to the Fed's $4.5 trillion balance sheet levitating te S&P500 and the offshore bank accounts of 1% of the US population) has been the US consumer: that tireless spending horse who through thick, thin, recession and depression is expected to take his entire paycheck, and then some tacking on a few extra dollars of debt, and spend it on worthless trinkets.

Sure enough, for the past 8 years, said consumer has done just that and with the help of the endless hopium and Kool-Aid dispensed by the administration (who can forget Tim Geithner's August 2010 op-ed "Welcome to the Recovery"), and by the political and financial propaganda media, spent, spent and then spent some more hoping that "this time it will be different."

This all came to a screeching halt earlier today when courtesy of the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, we learned that the US consumer has finally tapped out.  Households reported that they expected to increase their spending by just 3.5% in the next year, a major drop from the 4.3% the month before. This was the lowest reading in series history.

Worse, when adjusting for household inflation expectations, which have been relatively flat if modestly declining around 3%, real spending intentions, when adjusted for inflation, just crashed to a barely positive 0.5%, down over 60% from the prior month. This too was the lowest print in series history.

 

Think America's poor have finally revolted, and refuse to spend any more? Think again: the biggest culprit in the collapse in spending intentions was the middle class (those making between $50 and $100K) but mostly the wealthy, those with incomes over $100K. It was the latter whose spending expectations dropped to, you guessed it, the lowest in series history.

Needless to say, this was not supposed to happen.

Worse, in an economy where 70% of the GDP is in the hands of consumer spending, a collapse in spending intentions to multi-year low levels means just one thing: recession.

The only silver lining is that since the source of this data is the Fed itself, then Yellen will surely be aware of the dramatic shift taking place within the biggest drive of US economic growth. Which is why for all those wondering just what caused today's market surge which was driven not by China's collapsing economy, but by the realization that the Fed will not only not hike in September, but probably won't hike in December, or ever, just look at the first chart above.

Source: NY Fed

 

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Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:30 | 6411278 ted41776
ted41776's picture

math is racist

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:33 | 6411291 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Better have a relevant skill.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:43 | 6411329 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

How is this possible?

Folks better rejigger there "expectations" as Blue Cross is seeking 25%+ rate increases across the country courtesy of Zerocare.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:44 | 6411336 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Paying for more insurance with less access.

 

Bullish!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:47 | 6411351 Shocker
Shocker's picture

People are tapped out

Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

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Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:49 | 6411359 knukles
knukles's picture

Time for a Benchmark Revision and Newly Adjusted Seasonals ... Exactly the kind of crap demanded of surveys.
Don't worry, the shit'll buff out

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:52 | 6411371 bob_stl
bob_stl's picture

How the fuck do people know that they expect to spend 3.5% more next year?

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:03 | 6411426 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Correct.  I don't give a shit what they expect to spend, tell me what they spent.  Much more meaningful number.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:13 | 6411463 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yep...  As I said before..

I just put a few hundred bucks into fixing my 13 year old car to save some Summer miles on my 11 year old truck I use in Winter.

I see lots of old trucks (like 25 yearold F-150s) getting fixed up at the shop I go to.

Those old Fords don't rust much either.  The front ends just fall apart after a while.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:38 | 6411574 Fiscal Reality
Fiscal Reality's picture

208,000 on my 2004 ES and 170,000 on the 2000 Corolla. Run 'em till the wheels come off.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:58 | 6411862 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Has Barry EVER kept any of his promises? I am still waiting for the $3,000 for a Thingamajig he promised.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:08 | 6411907 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

"in an economy where 70% of the GDP is in the hands of consumer spending..."

There's that oft-quoted totally fraudulent statement again.  Consumer spending amounts to about 30% of the fraudulent GDP numbers.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 01:17 | 6412832 pretty bird
Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:44 | 6412389 turnoffthewater
turnoffthewater's picture

That as the same as what the TPTB have been doing to the ordinary man's labor for a long time. They want all of the the retirement paper money.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 07:59 | 6413138 max2205
max2205's picture

Hey I thought getting taxed to death was spending 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:10 | 6412457 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Haha, true. My sister ran her 2000 camry until it stopped one day (tranny went out) with 285k miles on it. She was going to sell it for junk but I told her I would help her sell it for parts. Sold it for 1k to a parts/body dealer. Guy said the body was in good shape and he had engine/trans he would put in it and sell for 2.5k minimum. The guy was a car flipper and it worked out for everyone.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 00:37 | 6412782 zelator
zelator's picture

198,000 on my 1992 Toyota Camry

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:53 | 6412071 itstippy
itstippy's picture

"Those old Fords don't rust much either.  The front ends just fall apart after a while."

I know of one shop with one guy that has mastered front end alignments on old Ford Twin I-Beam suspensions.  Even other top-ace-shit Ford mechanics take the old Twin I-Beam Fords to this guy to do the final alignment.  Replace all the worn out parts, make it tight & good-good, then take it to this other guy for the alignment.

If you run cheap second-hand skins it doesn't matter; the tires kinda wear to fit the shitty alignment.  When the cords show too bad you go on Craig's list and find another cheap set.  But if you put decent tires on the old Ford trucks without getting a proper alignment they'll be eaten up very quickly.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:14 | 6412470 TheAnswerIs42
TheAnswerIs42's picture

All depends on where you live. In the NorthEast, yeah it'll rust.

You can get a bit more out of them by replacing the brake-lines/exhaust.

But there is a limit.

Down South or the West Coast, not so much.

I'm still driving a 97 F150 and a 2001 Saab (lord, what a magnificent piece of engineering, a joy to drive), but not for much longer.

Mebbe a year or so more, then onto something else.

 

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 00:26 | 6412760 Kprime
Kprime's picture

My F-150 is damn near new then.  2000 model.  I bought it in 2006 with 19000 miles on it.  I paid 16000.  It will be the last truck I ever own.  Of course I only drive about 1500 miles a year. 

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 00:29 | 6412767 I need Another Beer
I need Another Beer's picture

Belly laugh HB !! Mine is a 200 f150 with 240000 on it. Runs like a top and still pulls my camper and boat

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 09:28 | 6413407 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Yup, 182,000+ miles on my '88 F-150.  Wassat?...27 years old and still driven every weekend.  

And my mechanics (who are located drirectly across the street from my house are totally sympathetic....as well as being worth their weight in gold).

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:07 | 6411443 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Sign of pessimism more than how much you are going to actually spend

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:33 | 6411777 richiebaby
richiebaby's picture

The scary part is the NY Fed only surveyed Wall St execs households

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:47 | 6411823 The central planners
The central planners's picture

The NSA satellites are reading our minds.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 23:57 | 6412707 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

not if you're wearing tin foil

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:26 | 6411963 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Exactly. Besides the facts that it impossible to know for sure and extremely difficult for even companies employing literal teams of people to figure out projections like this a quarter at a time when they can fudge the inputs to goal seek the prediction. This whole index thing is bullshit. I bet the majority of the U.S. population couldn't even tell you what three percent of fifty thousand is without a calculator let alone some percentage of an odd number and I imagine a good many of those would be unable to figure it out given a calculator.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:07 | 6411444 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

Well...   Now that it has been undisputedly proven that one can, in fact, polish turds (Mythbusters), yes indeed, it will buff out.

 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:28 | 6411971 Umh
Umh's picture

You're maybe the nicest smart ass I know of.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:51 | 6411366 The9thDoctor
The9thDoctor's picture

This is a no brainer. Monthly rents and monthly mortgage payments are at all time highs. If Joe Blow makes biweekly paychecks, his entire paycheck goes towards rent/mortgage. the other paycheck he has to skate by for the next 28 days on, but that is used towards utilities, transportation, and groceries. Joe Blow is totally tapped out.

If Joe Blow has student loans, forget it, its over. The only growth industry for consumer spending is Dollar Trees. Even Walmart is getting too pricey. What props Walmart up is EBT. Without EBT, Walmart is over.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:04 | 6411430 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

No gots.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:04 | 6411432 Osmium
Osmium's picture

And if Joe Blow doesn't have a house he can use as an ATM machine he will be screwed even faster.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:21 | 6411508 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Joe Blow sounds like a loser when you all talk about him like this.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:37 | 6412204 Eternal Complainer
Eternal Complainer's picture

Yes.
Joe Blow is a loser. He'll always be a loser because he's a sucker.
Anybody with a half a clue knows this.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:59 | 6412427 SeattleBruce
SeattleBruce's picture

Including, for example, if Joe Blow already used his house as a piggy bank leading up to 2008, and basically ended up underwater.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:24 | 6411742 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

http://bringmethenews.com/2015/08/04/blue-cross-and-blue-shield-of-minne...

 

must be getting ready to outsource...didn't workout so well for RBS

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:47 | 6411350 SandiaMan
SandiaMan's picture

Blue Cross Blue Shield Threatening to leave New Mexico because rate increase denied.

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S3874923.shtml?cat=500

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:49 | 6411360 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Yeah, but in NM Blue Cross only asked for a 51.6% increase.

So there is that...

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:10 | 6411454 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Greedy profitteering scum

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:26 | 6411746 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

Additional costs must be passed on. Covering pre-existing conditions which cost thousands of dollars or more each month while the insured pays only a fraction of that amount in premiums means that everyone else must pay more. Those who believe that Obama waved a magic wand and made medical care fall from the sky like manna from heaven are sorely mistaken.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:13 | 6411926 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

"Those who believe that Obama waved a magic wand and made medical care fall from the sky like manna from heaven are sorely mistaken."

barry didn't do squat about medical care.  The ACA was written by and for the corporations in that industry, and they designed it so that they could guarantee gigantic profits.  The only thing that barry and the other treasonous scumbags in congress did was say "Yes, Sir" and enacted the ACA. 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:18 | 6411941 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Sorry to those who thought i was serious about greed comment.

For BCBS to leave revenue behind, they would think that they can only lose money or break even going forward.

Have to wait and see if they are negotiating or what

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:50 | 6411375 knukles
knukles's picture

All part of the plan.  Everything the goobermenit does is to drive the private sector out of business and then assume the void, engaging in practices even worse then that used to fail the private businesses.
To wit:  Student Loans.  Home Mortgages.

Next:  Healthcare.

See, the industrialists always support the intervention and loopholes for themselves until the beast consumes them/itself in their entirety.
The Leviathan Grows Uncontrollably as a Cancer upon the Face of Mankind

Welcome to the New Versailles of the New World Order

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:28 | 6411758 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

Nice synopsis of Atlas.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:01 | 6411846 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

Are you nuts? Health Care Industries are rolling in so much money that they even wipe their asses with it. I dont shed a tear for ANY of the Health Care "suppliers"

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:11 | 6411919 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

And yet your trustworthy local doctor has taken early retirement or is scraping by while trying to continue to provide quality care to long term patients. If your doctor keeps written rather that electronic  records as mine does (bypassing intrusive databases to some degree) he's charged an extra fee for that too.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 01:22 | 6412836 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

If you can call 6-7% profit margins rolling in money...

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 00:18 | 6412749 Kprime
Kprime's picture

don't forget car loans

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:54 | 6411378 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Holy shit I did not know about that, just Googled. They already raised my rates about $50 a month. 

You know the .01% is just so worried about this issue...

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:29 | 6411765 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

Don't panic, Trump will save us from the .01%.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:37 | 6411393 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

How do they expect broke people to buy insurance at 25-60% increase s next year?

 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:46 | 6411610 TVP
TVP's picture

They expect them to quit working and overwhelm the Medicaid rolls. 

One might recall a certain sociology paper written by Cloward and Piven.  

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:34 | 6411626 monad
monad's picture

Don't work. The children of Ferguson will pay for it. Revenge, fuckers

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:14 | 6411703 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Better yet...wait till after people scrape together the money for insurance to find out their is limitations to medical care.  As I do not follow the herd, I have opted to purchase used medical rehab equipment and do therapy at home. As much as I do not like craigslist it has proven to save me thousands along with giving the proper care for a loved one. That is it for my disposable income.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:25 | 6412172 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You got two kidneys. Sell one.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:44 | 6411599 Refuse-Resist
Refuse-Resist's picture

When you said re-jigger, all I could think of was:  Jigger City

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e52-Vx5PMCQ

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:26 | 6411960 indygo55
indygo55's picture

They shoud just double those increases to like 50% and throw it into the GDP bucket. Mission accomplished!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:45 | 6411340 doctor10
doctor10's picture

the "wealthy" are dependent upon the middle clases and lower to purchase the goods and services they make and sell

 

and so this is asuprise?

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:59 | 6411396 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

THEY make & sell...THEY (AND OBVIOUSLY YOU TOO) EXTRACT ONLY

 

now go join your golf klan wannabs for a much deserved labotomy

 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:20 | 6411495 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

"the "wealthy" are dependent upon the middle clases and lower to purchase the goods and services .."

Fantasty finance and Fantasy Island Economics can be quite confusing:  that 70% consumption figure never includes the percentage of the popultion doing that 70% purchasing --- it was the upper 15% and quickly shrinking --- a few years back it was the upper 20% --- get it?

Those goods and services includes financial services and banking crap!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:50 | 6411836 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

thats why they should appreciate the .gov giving out other peoples money for Benefits....it all ends up in the same place in the strata above us-the 1%

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:11 | 6411920 drendebe10
drendebe10's picture

hmmmmmmmmmm, higher and higher obamataxes, higher and higher obamacare premiums, higher and higher obamacare deductibles, all healthcare being shunted to hospitals where services cost 5-10x more than outpatient service coupled with gubmint bullsh*t statistics about true unemployment and inflation.....   hmmmmmmmmmm

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:33 | 6411290 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Damned proles! They need to sell a kidney or something......

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:51 | 6411367 vq1
vq1's picture

no, no - that is too extreme!

 

Simply get another part-time job, or two. Dont reproduce and take out a home equity loan. 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:33 | 6411292 WVHillbilly
WVHillbilly's picture

I hope to spend more than 3.5% more next year on my investments in lead and related expenditures....

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:35 | 6411297 Rainman
Rainman's picture

The kids do the spending and they are broke ...... rent, tuition and car payments, weed, cell phone bill .... gone !

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:45 | 6411342 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

No kidding,

I played golf yesterday and a guy in my foursome said he paid $300/quarter for his weed.

I LOL'd

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:47 | 6411349 vq1
vq1's picture

If they are spending money on weed, chances are they are also spending money on fines, bail, court fees and synthetic urine.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:39 | 6411578 roisaber
roisaber's picture

Hey great grandpa -

 

Weed is totally legal in several states, essentially legal in many others (I have a friend who got a Cali weed card by being quote itchy unquote,) and somehow civilization hasn't suddenly devolved into savagery. I know new information might seem intimidating to someone your age, but nobody cares about smoking weed anymore except in the Trucknut Republics of Knuckle-Dragging Cousin-Fucking.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:06 | 6412120 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

my knuckles don't drag

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:13 | 6412139 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

And you certainly need no truck nut.

Miffed;-)

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:36 | 6412199 Hulk
Hulk's picture

and whatz wrong with fukin cuzzins ???

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:53 | 6412413 TheAnswerIs42
TheAnswerIs42's picture

Definition

Relative Humidity

The sweat which drips down from fuckin your cousin.

 

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 12:33 | 6414202 monad
monad's picture

Hey kid, come in here and pee in this cup. Your future depends on it. The Man discriminates on the color of urine... dat rayciss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl0coi4g3hY

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 12:30 | 6414190 monad
monad's picture

One of the best educational experiences is laying face down in a field with a cop's shotgun to the back of your neck, because he thought you look suspicious. Its really hard not to get the picture.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 15:31 | 6415218 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Mine was lying still face down in a culvert with only my bra and jeans on ( my white tee shirt crumpled under me, I had taken it off fearing I'd be more visible to the wandering flashlights). Trying not to gag smelling the putrid algae encrusted pool of water, I heard " See anything?" " No, let's try the next street up." Footsteps and jangling receded into the distance. I shivered there for hours longer than I needed, just in case. Thankfully they didn't not have dogs or I would have been found.

Miffed

Wed, 08/12/2015 - 05:11 | 6417416 boattrash
boattrash's picture

Miffed,

Now THAT sounds like a story worth hearing the rest of someday!

(I've spent the night in a brushpile myself).

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:36 | 6411300 MathWins
MathWins's picture

Just maybe it's because the US Consumer lives in the real world, and has watched their grocery bill rise week after week, and packages get smaller and smaller.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:14 | 6411470 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

bring your own package now. should get you more oats

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:36 | 6411304 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

No, expectations of a spending drop doesn't mean recession. An actual spending drop might mean that, though 3.5% is still spending growth. (Where did you get the 3% inflation number, anyway?)

I'm confident that, at some point in the future, we will be in a recession - though Tyler shouldn't get any credit for calling it.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:44 | 6411339 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The fed is printing like crazy to prop up the stock market. <--Read this line 3(x). That is not real growth.

Commodities and the Baltic Dry Index are crashing because they are not making stuff to ship and sell because they have not been selling stuff.

You really think we are not in a depression right now? A recession would be an improvement.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:55 | 6411379 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Rule of thumb is when your neighbor is out  of work, it's a recession, when you are out of work, it's a depression.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:22 | 6411514 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Excellent comments, Ms. C and don't forget the Chinese dumping all those US Treasuries the last 8 months, probably for infusion into their stock exchanges, half of which are frozen?

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:59 | 6411867 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

The Chinese are only using a portion of the treasury funds to prop up their stock market.

The bulk of the funds are going to productive economic activities that create high paying jobs for Chinese workers.  Most of the jobs involve design and construction of MIRV ICBMs, nuclear attack subs, and hyperglide bombers that target all US population centers.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:10 | 6412132 froze25
froze25's picture

Now that is an interesting claim.  What makes you say that? Got any links you can share? They have been working on there rocket/satellite program and that is as close as you need to really go for an ICBM.  But I'm not convinced they are cranking out warheads....

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:17 | 6411488 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

the 3% is the consumer rate. but if you want to go there there was a time the projected interest rate was 3.82% http://www.statista.com/statistics/244983/projected-inflation-rate-in-th...

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:30 | 6411978 indygo55
indygo55's picture

AJKR,,, You remind me of this fat stubby little queer that always had his mommy pick him up at high school cuz he was gonna get his ass kicked.

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:38 | 6411312 Gab Timov
Gab Timov's picture

awww man.

i thought the recovery was just around the corner.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:56 | 6411318 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

I expect to spend a lot more--on food, insurance, and taxes--like I have been.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:40 | 6411327 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

damn.  no spam or toilet paper awaits us at the bottom of the hole they've dug for us

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:51 | 6411841 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

Spam is an acronym.  It stands for "Sliced Pig's Asshole Meat"

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:37 | 6412206 Hulk
Hulk's picture

No wonder it smells like shit when you Fry it...

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:43 | 6411334 Jason T
Jason T's picture

strong dollar makes things cheaper so you can consume the same amount of stuff but it'll cost less dollars.

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:43 | 6411335 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Gun, ammo, and target sales are up.

Primers are still hard to acquire.

Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..

 

I cannot wait until Liberty Poles and guillotine sales shoot up.

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:44 | 6411337 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

The Gap just reported

 

Sames store sales july (year over year)

 

expected (thomas reuters) ... -2.3%

 

actual ... -3.0%

 

but hoo cares ... no rate hike september ...

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:46 | 6411343 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

No rate hike ever again in the history of the dollar. Book it.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:45 | 6411341 Grandad Grumps
Grandad Grumps's picture

What did you expect? We are getting no return on our life savings and a lot of us older folks need to make the money go farther at the same time everything is getting more expensive.

Even if the bank would lend me money, there is not way I would borrow money that I cannot pay back.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:34 | 6412000 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Borrow every penny you can get, max out every credit card and buy a shitload of silver and gold. Tell them fuck off and in a year offer 20% and they will be glad to get it.

 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:46 | 6411345 Bell's 2 hearted
Bell&#039;s 2 hearted's picture

The Buckle had worst 'actual' vs 'expected' for july sss

 

expected ... +0.2%

actual ... -8.1%

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:49 | 6411358 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Shiti Bank and all the others will just raise everyones credit card limit again, and it's off to the races.

The great Amerikan consumer has been well trained.

Besides they can take out a 2nd,3rd & 4th mortgage. Then a reverse mortgage when they get old and take the vactions they so richly deserve!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:59 | 6411405 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Big world wide cruise coming up at end of sept, heard your Uncle Eddie and his family were booked on it, don't know so much about you though. 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 16:58 | 6411399 Fiscal Reality
Fiscal Reality's picture

I am on strike and will not spend unless I MUST buy it. FL has a 10 day sales tax "holiday" going on now. Too bad it doesn't apply to firearms and ammo.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:47 | 6411826 Caleb Abell
Caleb Abell's picture

Are you sure it doesn't apply to guns and ammo?

I thought the purpose of the 10 day sales tax holiday is to help families buy back-to-school supplies for their kids.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:35 | 6412010 Fiscal Reality
Fiscal Reality's picture

Nice take!! The FL legislature is again taking up a bill that will allow concealed carry on campus. Gotta love the South. Back to school indeed!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:01 | 6411415 scatha
scatha's picture

DO YOU KNOW YOUR ALPHABET? GOOGLE IS NO MORE:

ZH hurry up Google megalomania from A to Z hit the ceiling.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:26 | 6411530 scubapro
scubapro's picture

 

they should just change it to "THE WORD".      or maybe "Universe"    or something else befitting the hubris that is silicon valley

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:05 | 6411435 B2u
B2u's picture

The FACTS are clear.  ZIRP doesn't work.  Time to normalize interest rates.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:47 | 6412045 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"The FACTS are clear. ZIRP doesn't work. Time to normalize interest rates."

I am pretty sure that once ZIRP collapses, they simply switch to NIRP. When that fails VNIRP (Very negative Interest Rate Policy). When VNIRP Fails it will be UNIRP (Ultra). and so on.

AC/DC is working on a new song: "I am on a highway to NIRP". Should be very popular amoung the Central Bankers.

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:47 | 6412397 TheAnswerIs42
TheAnswerIs42's picture

The trend is your friend.

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:06 | 6411437 SMC
SMC's picture

The "consumer" can not afford to buy any more Kool-Aid to kill the taste of the fracking fluids in the allegedly potable water coming out of their water faucets.

LOL.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:43 | 6411595 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

Fracking is safe, global warming is a myth, pure laissez-fair capitalism is a real thing. Don't you know anything?

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:16 | 6411479 Bemused Observer
Bemused Observer's picture

I love it...I hope we see some REAL belt-tightening going forward.

Starve the global economy. Deny it air until it suffocates and shrinks back down to manageable size.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:27 | 6411539 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

The real economy, IMHO, is belt tightening, and has been. Not all of it is organic and for good reasons. 

It is the fake economy that is inflating. It is getting so much air and fuel it is destroying the real economy, thus forcing failure in things real, useful, and good, because shadow money keeps going in and rewarding bad.

If you and I refuse to participate in the fake economy (debt, stock market, etc.), then yeah, that does deny it just a little bit of air. 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:08 | 6412124 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

I couldn't have said it better. 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:35 | 6412363 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

All food used to be organic food...its a way for them to hide inflation (even though its not measured in CPI) through dillution of food.

 

RIPS

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:28 | 6411543 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

I've been fermenting milk, veggies and tea, making my own sourdough bread, buying at the farmers market, my food bill has gone way down.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:44 | 6411600 ersatz007
ersatz007's picture

I've been teaching myself how to digest wood.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:43 | 6412035 silverer
silverer's picture

Good one.  Reminds me of another I heard: "Taught my dog not to eat.  He died, though."

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:45 | 6412560 Kprime
Kprime's picture

wow, he musta been good at it.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:06 | 6412277 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

Mmm, silage bread.

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 01:03 | 6412810 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Have you tried eating grass, stuff just grows on its own

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:12 | 6412136 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Start growing a food forest in your yard/balcony/whatever.  A garden is very therapeutic, fun, and may be quite necessary in the future.  Check out geofflawton.com to get you started.  It's great you're shopping at farmers markets.  Developing a relationship with a farmer is the best way to starve the beast and big ag (one of the great evils of our time in my opinion). 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:51 | 6412232 froze25
froze25's picture

3, forty foot x 4 foot raised beds l, 5 hens, 4 fruit trees and I brew my own beer, distill my own shine, drive a 96 Toyota Turcel, wife's got the nice car a 2012 civic. House hold income is about 196,000.  Just Internet and an antenna.  We are organic eating, shot gun shooting, home brew drinking, libertarian thinking, young executive cheap sons of bitches and we aren't alone.  You can do a lot when you shut the tv off, plan and execute. Cheaply too.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:38 | 6411576 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

Collectively, as a group, we have borrowed so much from the future that now we have no future.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:43 | 6411587 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Still it never ceases to amaze how busy the local IKEA is, day after day, week in and week out.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:11 | 6411695 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

The reason they are busy, is because they sell furniture made from cardboard.

However, you can shoot a gun down the aisle of their Sydney flagship store and not hit any one.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:06 | 6412274 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

i think ppl must just charge a lot or something... (am i beginning to sound like beavis and stuff ???)

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:52 | 6411633 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Bullish.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 17:56 | 6411648 bankonzhongguo
bankonzhongguo's picture

Just a couple of real world observations.

I have a host of friends that live in an up-scale neighborhood in Central Valley CA - built at the end of good times - 2007/2008.

They tour the neighborhood nightly, walking the dog, kids to the park, chatting with neighbors.

Maybe 40% of those 500+ houses went through the prolonged foreclosure process or deed in lieu of foreclosure, short sale, whatever.

Of that 40% maybe half have been re-sold (a few even foreclosed on again) the other half still sit vacant, unmarketed by the bank.

Of the 100 odd homes available for sale, maybe only 3 are actively marketed at any time with about a 21 day inventory on hand.

Everything is just treading water. Prices in the last two years have adjusted plus minus 10% on season.

Now the reason I mention all these housing games is that over the last years these standard 2200+ sq 4/3 Amerikan Dream homes are now being actively rented - BY THE ROOM.

Any guess who their prime clients are? Students and the elderly.

So in terms of the real deflation of incomes verses non-market housing dynamics, homes that went to families are being slowly consumed by the indigent and unemployed on a per bedroom basis financed ONLY by government payouts.

Add to this the soaring use of EBT, emergency food aid, weight-listed housing vouchers and no jobs and you get a picture of the transformation of Any-town USA to a shanty.

This is not inner city housing, this is basically the last "new" construction to hit the market in the last years; cement rooves, outdoor kitchen, pergola "masion-ettes" for $300M.

There are no double income families to occupy these dwellings. Its people stripped to nothing on SSI and FAFSA life support.

Related to this, it is now common place to see random cars of people of all ages parking their cars on the edge of fields and scavenging for food rather than afford the local grocer.

This used to only happen at night, but now its common to see folks hauling arm-loads of watermelon, tomatoes and corn in broad daylight and the police have "stand-down" orders to not stop anyone picking someone else's fields.

Never saw any of this 5 years ago.

What will things be like in another 5 years?

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:17 | 6411713 Falling Down
Falling Down's picture

+1000

Noticed the same thing in Columbia, SC, going back to 2010 regarding listings in our neighborhood (we moved late that year).

Post-war neighborhood, mostly middle class. Houses I knew were vacant still are. One was financed by a kid who was attending a local school, he couldn't have been more than 19 when Chase gave him a loan for a house, if you can believe that. Guy bought it to party in,.and we knew he was dealing coke out of the place, then dropped out and joined the National Guard.

I guess you could call them zombie houses, haven't been occupied in several years, now, and the scumbag realtors won't list them, because they know it would bring the housing market crashing down.

I just wish this shit show would end.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:23 | 6412494 joego1
joego1's picture

Be careful what you wish for.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:54 | 6411853 numapepi
numapepi's picture

Reminds me of that scene in Dr. Zhivago... Where he returns to his Moscow home to find it full of people and the Bolshevic says they put 5 families in it. Dr. Zhivago gets to stay in one room of his own home.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:41 | 6412029 silverer
silverer's picture

I remember it well.  It's in the works for the US.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:57 | 6412085 AGuy
AGuy's picture

"I remember it well. It's in the works for the US."

Especially true if CA runs out of water (perhaps by next summer)

São Paulo is likely to run out later this month. They are down to one day of water per week (soon to be zero days per week).

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:21 | 6412145 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

Well at 57 inches per year, families could set up roof rainwater catchment and have no water issue at all.  That's an easy problem to fix.  The economy, and California's rain vs. usage is much harder, fixable but would require some susbstantial infrastructure changes. 

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:49 | 6412229 conscious being
conscious being's picture

You missed it. The geoengineers are feeling the heat, local and international. As such, they promised to turn the water back on this winter.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:59 | 6412390 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

This will be the blueprint for the new "Section 8" housing model.  The banks hold the mortgage and outsource to the slum-lord and are subsidized by the taxpayer - perfect.  I see the same thing where I live; just not on the scale you described. 

---------------

Calipornia (AKA California) is like a foreign country in so many ways.  Nice place to visit if you do not have to interact with the locals or the foreigners.

Here is proof: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYhTFz_SGw0

Tue, 08/11/2015 - 01:18 | 6412831 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Call it capitalism, make it feel like socialism to the tennent, but it is fascism for the pols and bankers because we backstop it through taxes and debased currency.

If you can restrain yourself from killing the fuckers for the lie, and step back, it really is rather masterful.

Damn we are fucked.

Santana playing right now on my system, wicked fucking guitar:

You've got to change your evil ways, baby
Before I stop lovin' you
You've got to change, baby
And every word that I say is true
You got me runnin' and hidin' all over town
You got me sneakin' and a-peepin' and runnin' you down
This can't go on, Lord knows you got to change, baby

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:03 | 6411672 OAW
OAW's picture

Awlrite Bitcheez

     Time to go read KRUGMAN, if you can read!

     KRUGMAN knows.   You have dummmned out long enuf.

     Go read!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:36 | 6412366 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

Based on your use of English; we would all agree that you should just sit on the side and be quiet and observe.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 22:18 | 6412483 joego1
joego1's picture

No, sorry, he has to go in the cage with Tyler, it's only fair to the rest of us.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:14 | 6411699 atlasRocked
atlasRocked's picture

The math of stimulus doesn't work, the history shows it doesn't work:

http://www.teapartytribune.com/2015/05/18/keynesian-beauty-contest-revea...

 

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:21 | 6411731 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

You spend what you make. Oh ...wait....

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 18:49 | 6411830 numapepi
numapepi's picture

70% of the economy is in the hands of the people eh? The progressives will solve that by putting 100% in the hands of government.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:35 | 6412009 silverer
silverer's picture

Moving ahead in this economy is like standing inside a barrel and trying to lift yourself off the floor with the handles.

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 21:34 | 6412358 Crocodile
Crocodile's picture

I'd say it is like a treadmill that moves faster than you can run...splat!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 20:41 | 6411861 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The only thing getting hiked is the next QE.

QE to Infinity!

Mon, 08/10/2015 - 19:03 | 6411874 dreadnaught
dreadnaught's picture

Maybe we should do like Japan: hire squads of cute cheerleaders in each city that spend their day shouting and cavorting: Everything is great! YOU can do it! Think positive! Your new job is on the way! Be thankfull to our leaders for our jobs! GO GO GO!-you are a success....etc

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