Recession Imminent As Wholesale Inventories Surge, Sales Disappoint; Autos Worst Since 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

The ratio of wholesale inventories-to-sales pushed back up to 1.3 - its highest since the recession and is flashing an enormous red flag for an imminent recesion in America...


with the automotive industry the biggest factor in this.


A bigger-than-expeted 0.9% surge in inventories (biggest since April 2014) was accompanied by a considerably slower than expected 0.1% growth in sales (weakest since March) suggest that 'field of dreams' corporate planning remains in place.

Most crucially, as The Atlanta Fed warns, "lower inventory investment will subtract 1.7ppt from Q3 real GDP growth." The higher Q2 'build' the worst Q3 will be - though we are sure economists will extrapolate Q2 growth no matter what...


Charts: Bloomberg

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Ness.'s picture

We've been given a gift.  BTFD.  They will defend stawks more than our borders.

sodbuster's picture

Thy will just have to triple readjust the results.

StackShinyStuff's picture

Someone must have uttered some nonsense -stawks are ramping, or is it that Europe is closing, or is it these economic "worst since..." stats?  Who knows anymore?

insanelysane's picture

These charts are full of lies, lies, lies!  All lies I tell ya!!!

Renewable Life's picture

Your in a Catch-22 "folks" on Wall Street!!

The Chinese have just announced game over, in the USD devalue game!

"Two can play that game" also comes to mind, I wonder how far oil could drop obce this Yuan devaluation thing gets rolling through the complex?

I've been screaming this for a year or two now, once the price of oil drops to $20 to $25 a barrel, the whole leveraged petrodollar MIC collapses on itself!

That's the end game, we are nearing $40 and its 18 months of boozo left at the helm, you have to give it too the chinese, their sense of timing is impeccable!!'

slaughterer's picture

Bullish!  QE5/6 a coming. 

Haus-Targaryen's picture

Sometimes I just don't know what to do/say/think about this anymore.  

We just need something somewhere to financially implode.   

quasimodo's picture

What I found interesting was one more article down, regarding Venezuela, you can get your prediction for the price of gold for 2016. 

Sadly at the rate it's going that might be a close call.


astoriajoe's picture

Its saddening that implosion is an improvement.

gimme soma dat's picture

The housing market here, which has been booming all year, seems to be screeching to a halt. 

JustObserving's picture

But old Yeller and her poodle, Hilsenrath, have a cure for the imminent recession - a September rate hike.

It has been eighty-five years since the Great Depression, and the US economy is in economic recovery with an unemployment rate close to that of the Great Depression.

peter4805's picture

Recession imminent? We've been in recession since 2008.

Mini-Me's picture

Apply a realistic inflation rate means we've been in recession since 2000.

Dr. Engali's picture

Recession imminent? We've been in a depression since 2000.



There fixed that for ya.

StackShinyStuff's picture

They will look back on this period in history and refer to it simply as "GAME OVER"

Consuelo's picture

And interestingly enough, the monetary authorities knew even then, that a 'market-clearing' event could not be allowed to take place.   The floorboards were rotting already...

mayhem_korner's picture



This recession started in 1913.  It was given a booster shot in 1971.  The Greenspan-Bernanke-Yellen cocktail is simply going to cause the 'economy' to curl up in the fetal position in some back alley.

vq1's picture

From the mouth of the oracle himself:


"Be Afraid of Pending Bubble in Bond Market"


corporatewhore's picture

Depression.  Do not use the term recession and call it what it is.

clade7's picture

Get ready for another Great Wealth Wring Out!...go to cash and PMs, be ready to joo some poor bastard down for something you need...

youngman's picture

Build it and they will keeps the paper shufflers working....I know China is buying a whole lot of D9 CATS....lots and lots of

NoWayJose's picture

If you hike - it will come.... a recession, that is...

Infinite QE's picture

Rate Hike!

Rate Hike!

Rate Hike!


Thisisbullishright's picture

Yadda yadda yadda....

"Markets" green by the end of the day!!


Callz d Ballz's picture

but what about 2nd quarter productivity?


ChargingHandle's picture

The recession has been in place for years cloaked in fiat money so it is hard to recognize for many. The depression is at hand. 

slightlyskeptical's picture

Hey Tylers! The email harvesting popup makes your site freeze everytime I access it. Just maybe it is time to kill it already?

Bunghole's picture

Hey slightyskeptical.

Adblock plus.

Now quit yer bitchin'

Bell's 2 hearted's picture

inventory/sales one of my prized canaries

... cough cough ... cough cough ... cough cough cough cough ...

.... crickets ...

Be_Optimistic's picture

Perfect time to raise interest rates. This economy is accelerating too damn fast

Infinite QE's picture

You need a job? CNBC needs more analysts like yourself.

eucalyptus's picture

channel stuffing

Soul Glow's picture

Imagine how many cars are sitting in lots behind GM and Ford plants all over the world.  

ajkreider's picture

Before the mopery get going full bore, the Atlanta Fed attributes a lot of the jump to increased oil prices on the stockpiling of oil. That's obviously behind the curve. For another, inventories for June and May were both revised down.

Point is we're not sitting on warehouses full of unsellable goods.

q99x2's picture

You don't need to be worrying about recession this recesssion that you just BTFD.

Prober's picture
Prober (not verified) Aug 11, 2015 10:12 AM

Humans will ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS push credit beyond the limits of sustainability.


Prober's picture
Prober (not verified) Aug 11, 2015 10:11 AM

Get your cash stash stocked up cuz when the subprime auto market crashes, there will be millions of vehicles repossessed and resold at HUGE discounts - YIPPPPEEEEE !!!!!

I am prepared, going to stock up on a fleet of vehicles, ie compact errand car, pickup truck for towing boats, van for passengers, etc, for all of my homes.

It's gonna be Christmas for cash vehicle buyers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stormtrooper's picture

Hey Yellen, fire up the Sikorskys and prepare to dump $100 bills by the pallet full.

Consuelo's picture

Probably going to be more like a Chinook...



JailBanksters's picture

When will it end.

For seven years now, all you ever hear, read about is the words Imminant, recession, collapse, Bail-out, Bail-in, Fraud, Market Rigging, Sales are down, Unemployment us Up and Obama's Playing Golf

There has to more to life than reading about the same things over and over again except a different date.


2thepeople's picture

But.....but.....CNBC ran an article saying its a good thing inventories are up. Why would one think it bad producers producing and buyers not buying : /

Atomizer's picture

Cash for Channel Stuffed Inventory under NIRP. Sign and drive away.


Atomizer's picture

Automakers will need to create more mirrored websites to advance crowdfunding efforts to write off bloated shitmobiles.

tedstr's picture

You guys need to look at the bright side more.  I just bough a slightly used Mercedes wih my good credit though I havent had a job in 5 years.  Where's the issue?

Stormtrooper's picture

Send that extra inventory to Ferguson. Gone in a flash.