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Business Inventories Surge Most In 29 Months, Sales Ratio Signals Recession Imminent
Total business inventories for June rose 0.8% MoM - the biggest rise since Jan 2013. Great news for Q2 GDP as we stacked 'em high, but as sales lagged dramatically, the inventory-to-sales ratio hit a new post-crisis high at 1.37, flashing a very recessionary level going forward (dampening hype hope for Q3 GDP). Once again it was autos that saw the biggest relative jump in inventories (+1.4% MoM) relative to sales (-1.5%).
Inventories exploded in June...
With the sales ration flashing burght red recessioanry signals...
Charts: Bloomberg
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The FIAT dealer here in Ann Arbor, MI has the "Employee Pricing for Everyone" sign out.
Not sure if this is the same for Chrysler badged product.
Since we are already in a depression wouldn't moving into a recession be considered an improvement? Sure seems bullish to me in this wacko world we now live in.
OK so how will The Fed explain raisng interest rates into a recession? They are TOTALLY lost and without any credibility.
..."signals recession imminent."' No it doesn't. There will be no more recessions. Ever.
We are in a depression that does not officially exist, so everything is 'unexpected' and a 'surprise'. Just remember "it's always darkest just before it goes completely black".....
Because, FIAT.
Perhaps the worst car company in Europe teamed up with the worst American car company.
What could go wrong?
I wonder how much of this is auto channel stuffing?
Nothing a triple seasonal adjustment won't take care of.
Old Yeller is counting on the stronger dollar to boost exports and curb inventories?
BTW, we have been in a recession/depression since the financial crisis of 2008 if you use accurate inflation data.
The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
Old Yeller is counting on the stronger dollar to boost exports and curb inventories in Israel.
What is 'inventory' in the era of Facebook and Twitter?
Just in Tweet delivery ?
No big deal, let the FED buy inventories and all will be fine ... they may even hike rates ... yippe!
I though July was a boom month???????????????? lol
It was ... in 1998.
Why aren't consumers, consuming!?
"lowest unemployment, near full employment! jerb openings everywhere! employers holding on to their skilled labor!"
everyone should be rich by now.
"Why aren't consumers, consuming!?"
they already did, these are the leftovers!
Should be some low cast slightly singed heavily discounted inventories coming in from Tianjin shortly.
The burnt toast smell will be the only way to tell them apart from normal new product.
More QE imminent from all Central Banks. They're a one-trick pony and QE is it.
They all forgot how to do the "raise tail while whinnying" rates trick, they can only lower tail - and whinny a lot.
Completely inconsistent with robust retail sales. They cannot even keep their loes straight!
Business is in the doldrums... recession...depression.
Also means 2nd quarter GDP will be revised up. Hard to see a recession coming off a quarter of near 3% GDP, with claims @ 40 year lows and decent retail sales.
Yeah, that's the same thing the "experts" were saying in 2000 and 2008, too. Q2 GDP might be revised up because of orders, but Q3 will be down because the orders will stop until they sell what they so far haven't been able to. If not Q3, it'll be Q4, when they'll use the cold weather as an excuse. Hard to NOT see a recession coming within the next year with the manufacturing trade deficit at record lows, the fracking bubble (perceived as one of the few bright spots in the so-called "recovery") bursting, subprime auto lending at record highs, student loan debt around $1.5 trillion (with 51% of graduates getting jobs that didn't even require the degree they paid for), housing prices rising like they were prior to 2008 (and for the same reasons), and a Fed that, after 7 years near 0%, is STILL not sure if the economy can even withstand a hike of 15 basis points. But as long as there's decent retail sales (mostly of things made overseas) and hiring (retail and food & beverage are crushing the hiring numbers of the goods-producing industries, which are combine for far fewer than 10% of the hires every month), we should be in good shape.
ajkreider
Haven't you been reading the stories around here? Its all BS. Do you really think the job numbers are real? Drive around any town or city and look at the retail vacancies. Try to get a job. Not a .gov job where you do nothing but suck off the teat. A job where you make something real. They barely exist. Its all rigged and ginned up. Are you fucking stupid or paid off?
Ah, your one of those, "the stats are rigged, unless it's bad news, then it's the gospel truth", kind of market observer.
Put the tin foil (and the bold typeface) down, and back away slowly.
burght red recessioanry??
What language is this??
It's Tylernese. You get used to it after a while.
It was written by a Chinese intern.
GOOD GOD! Things are so screwed up that even the Tyler's has to outsource! Where's my damn gun...
if consumer sales are up, per the post a few down from this one, how are inventories up?
i smell bovine excrement.
October 1st bitches!
this is why I still figure all equities will revert back to 2008 levels, Obama barely warmed his chair up in the Whitehouse when his reporting agencies reported we're out of the recession , and the trillions printed, and given away, to prove that false reporting was masked as inflation fighting needs, so the feds spent these trillions to take false reporting of non- recession in us, into a depression in us 8 yrs. later.
we've had 8 yrs. of if you like your ins. plan, and your doctor ,you can keep them, and save thousands of dollars.
Building inventories just creates "pent-up" demand which in turn creates future volume and everyone knows you can always make it up in volume!
QE4 short dollars.
They will keep rotating QE worldwide until all the gov't debt is gone or the system blows up.
"With the sales ration flashing burght red recessioanry signals..."
Is this ZH-ese?
Holy shitgum!
Looks like someone has been celebrating.
Well the fall store resets are underway. I love walking into a store and seeing the shelves full, then going in the next day to see them bare with boxes everywhere.
Where did everything that was on the shelf go? It couldn't have all sold while the store was closed.
Off to be shipped back to the warhouses from where it came. Some will go to discount retailers, most will end up recycled or dumped in the Marianas Trench.
All so the retail cycle cam continue and the books can continue to be cooked, forward booked sales, channel stuffing, etc.
Billions of dollars of merchandise wasted to fake EPS.