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Even The Fed Admits Recession Looms: Q3 GDP Forecast Slashed To Just 0.7%
Just as we warned earlier - and Goldman subsequently confirmed - the Q2 "stack'em-high" surge in inventories (which has juiced hype hope that America is back, baby!) has consequences. The Atlanta Fed just released its latest forecast for Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%, citing an inventory drag of -2.2 percentage points. The Fed estimate is now 75% below the street's consensus!!
As The Atlanta Fed explains...
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 was 0.7 percent on August 13, down from 0.9 percent on August 6.
The previously reported nowcast of 1.0 percent for August 6 was revised down due to a minor adjustment in the method for nowcasting investment in computers and peripherals. Since a week ago, the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth has declined from -1.8 percentage points to -2.2 percentage points.
This decline more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the third-quarter growth rate in real consumer spending from 2.9 percent to 3.1 percent after the release of this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
* * *
Be careful what you wish for... or extrapolate.
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When Stringfellow Bithawke and weself returned from Nam in '69 there were still opportunities for young people in this country. A guy of modest means could scrape together enough Bitcoins to purchase a Cessna 150 or a Bell 47. Go do some crop dusting or fly some tourists and film crews. People also had more respect and there were not so many dead livermores laying around city streets. Thankfully, because of Satoshi Nakamoto though there may be one last chance for young people to virtualize their wealth, make a name for themselves and live the virtual American dream. Don't delay because this might be your last chance!
https://localbitcoins.com
What a steaming pile of Bitcrap.
Don't worry, we'll make it all up in Q4. Right after we QE.
So one talking head today said that the inventory accumulation is good news because it shows that businesses are confident in the future.
AAAAARRRARRRAAAAGGGHHHH!
there is an aspect of inventory growth that is not discussed.
building inventory means overhead absorbsion, and that means capitalization of costs and thus lower operating expenses as inventory builds--just another way of increasing paper EPS.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!! it's a Recovery!! God Damn it!!!!!!!
There's no bigger sign the worldwide depression is already here than the refugee crisis all over Europe and the US for that matter. This doesn't have much longer to play out.
Bitcoin in 69?
Way too much windowpane
Hah ha haha hahahahha h ah ah
Or Purple Pyramid, or Green Barrels.
Those were the days - wish I could remember some of them. Only flashes here and there.
As the old saying goes, if I didn't have flashbacks, I wouldn't have any memory at all (of the late '60s).
Scotch is better.
Boo Hoo Blacks.
Dude you have been a member for 4 days and you are here writing jibberish. This is the part where you stfu, read, and perhaps participate a little before using up perfectly good column space with advertising drivel.
4 days? lulz...
Fuckin fonestar, back again.
I'm assuming it's Wylan fonstar jenner
Stringfellow Bithawke... someone keeps hacking teh we's account somehow?
Fail, it's getting to be like clock work.
Definition of insanity.
Raise them rates, Janet.
lulz
Tell me lies
Tell me sweet little lies
Gotta love the Atlanta FED, though I think they might be a bit optimistic if things keep going like they are now......
I'm sure the 'Bureau of Lies and Statistics' will find a way to triple seasonally adjust q-2 GDP to make the farce work.
It's all because of "The South" and "The Rich"
/s
who knew idiocracy was a prediction...
I got a solution. YOU'RE A DICK!!! South Carolina! What's up! [/CONGRESSMAN 2]
Family Style FTW!
french fries and burrito coverings in every pot.
it is a documentary :(
Q3 GDP growth, lowering it to just 0.7%
Since inflation is understated by at least 6%, that gives a GDP growth rate of lower than -5.3%. That's a depression folks.
Thanks Captain Obvious.
you obviously arent doing your research
“The consumer-driven recovery of the economy continues on track,” said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Group in New York, who correctly projected the gain. “The fundamentals are all in place for solid consumer spending. The outlook remains strong for the second half of the year.”
seeeeee. youre just talking about a bump in the highway to utopia!
Disappointing to see ZH whore-out with the financial services sector ads (an industry seemingly despised by ZH), and now an iShares pop-up asking if ZH can deliver to my email box. And yes I know this isn't the place to bitch. Fuck it.
pssst. Adblock.
You're welcome.
1st RULE: You do not talk about adblock.
2nd RULE: You do not talk about adblock.
I was fine with Tylers making bank on this site. I even used to click the ads. But once the autoplay and popup shit started, that was the end for me.
It's like TV. Back when I used to watch, you would get like 45-50 minutes of show, and the rest commercials. Now, maybe 33-40 minutes? When the cost goes up too high, people react.
I remember when cable came out so you could pay for TV to avoid commercials on the free broadcast TV.
pods
word
P.P.S. Ghostery.
...
Don't forget NoScript and Ghostery!
I use ghostery and I switch bac and forth between two browsers, one is ghostery enabled- the other is condom free. I am in awe that Tyler allowed those types of ads at all.
The lure of scrill is strong. So far, I am proud of the fact that I never took the bait. Two blogs, both cancer free.
Seasonally adjust to keep the train on the track.
China just blew up yonder bridge,
Double secret seasonally adjusted. Hats off to Animal House.
We are bottom bouncing, nothing more. Adjust for real inflation and we have been dead for years.
That is why you see people look like they do. Burned out. Beaten. No hope going forward. Just looking for any way to anesthetize themselves.
Glad the FED has so much room with interest rates for when the other shoe drops.
pods
And yet most people are still clinging to the idea that a different president will change things.
not saying the current one is great, just saying that it doesn't matter.
Desperation will lead many to put their trust in any demagogue who empathizes with their plight.
Was that a shot at Trump? No, not really. Just how it is.
We have been on borrowed time for a LONG time here in the USA.
Even the real powers that be cannot violate the laws of math. The machinery of their money system is seizing. It has to. There is no other way. The pain does not hit everyone equally. The poor, the manufacturers, the raw material providers, they get fucked the most.
But everyone is going to go down with this one.
pods
No Shit!
True, but Wall Street needs a little more looting time.
This will be the last crash thats coming, and they want every chip on the table.
It has to be painful enough so people clamor for the next solution. Some kind of totally digital, supranational currency is my bet. Sexier than the SDR though. I am sure they have people running focus groups right now as to which is going to be the most acceptable name for our new currency.
Wall Street will keep skimming right until the end. Then shrug when it blows up.
pods
pods, you are really ON today. What you smokin' or drinkin'?
Judging by the number of little red arrow people out today I'd suggest somebody's very uncomfortable with themselves
Let the long awaited reset begin!!
GO HAWKS!!
"Shut up Lockhart! Goddamn!" --Grandma Yellen
Well this has zero input/impact on Jack Yellen and crew.
They dance to the beat of a different drum... that is emitted from W. Street!
If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.
George Bernard Shaw
Irish dramatist & socialist (1856 - 1950)
If Paul Krugman was laid end to end he still couldn't find his ass with all 4 hands
Is the .7% Annualized? Or for the quarter? If annualized that is a big gap. If not, then the two series do not diverge. Just checked and that is the SAAR so it is annualized. That is some huge cleavage,
Not so fast! Since most Americans can no longer afford a house they go out and eat, buy new cars and retail, seasonably.
So there is your "Keynesian" economic theory at work.
Inflate assets and let the sheep live from day to day!
Much like the weatherman, their forecasting shouldn't be taken too seriously.
Actually, the weathermen are a LOT more accurate than eCONomists.