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Initial Jobless Claims Average Hits New 42 Year Low - What Happens Next?
Consider... Zero Interest Rate Policy and a 42-year low in the 4-week average initial jobless claims data... one of these things is not like the other...
What Happens Next?
Charts: Bloomberg
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It's official... there is no more fucking jobs, hence no more claims.
As an unemployed person, I can confirm this.
In most places, you don't qualify for unemployment if you work a full-time contract job that ends.
If you work contract for one of the big IT 'recruiting' outfits - even on W-2 basis - they will automatically reject any unemployemnt verifications they get from the states. "We have plenty of jobs! Mostly Help Desk or PC installs - why can't a Systems Architect do one of those jobs?"
And in most states, if you work 60-hours a week at three part-time jobs and lose all of them, you don't qualify for unemployment.
Unemployment is a relic of yesteryear when most people were working regular, full-time jobs for years at a time and got laid off. The 'modern' economy depends on doing anything to avoid having such workers on your payroll. Contract, temp, part-time, off-shore, robots, chimpanzees - just anything but a regular, full-time employee. Thanks for that, .gov (you fuckers). Oh, but you still have to contribute to state unemployment insurance in almost every case, whether you'll ever qualify for it or not.
These unemployment rate statistics remind me of the 99+% vote totals North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gets on election day. The real unemployment rate, if you include all so-called "discouraged workers," is about 23%.
We never leave a man behind....except for the 93 million that don't count.
Well, let's face it, if you have cut your work force to the bone in order to maximize profits and not sacrifice production (and have converted as many jobs from full time to part time as is possible) then there are no more jobs to cut. The 180k-220k represents the normal turbulence of a skeleton work force. This is one reason why the work force participation rate remains so low - part time worker flux.
I find in my business dealings that most companies I deal with are operating on minimal work forces, which means their production or services are challenged. Challenged by simple shortage of productive manpower, but also challenged by burnt out employees who have been cornered into working their asses off for declining wages, all while being stressed with potential loss of their job due to lack of demand (tightening markets) or simply more cost effective means to accomplish their jobs. Regardless of economics, I think there is a real "depression" in the mindset of employees and small business owners. There is demand for jobs. One of my equipment suppliers on the west coast was telling me last night that they have had incredible sales increase over the last six months, but can find no technicians to provide installation and service. They simply don't seem to exist. But I know some of them personally and they tell me they are burned out and would rather just do minimals enough to get by. I don't know how this plays out. On one hand I do see demand for goods, services and jobs. On the other hand I see economic overhead that would appear could reach out and crush us at any moment, forcing me to think defensively...constantly. There is demand, just not enough to induce to either pay what it costs or work for what it pays.
I think we are suffering from a deflationary mindset that tells us to spend less, expect more for our money, which is exacerbating our circumstances. But this is more than simple emotionalism. Our depression is not a hormonal swing, it is based on hard facts. But our government looks at it as all a matter of manipulation of our perspectives to stimulate a desired demand curve. Ultimately it sounds and feels good, but is as effective as providing motivational tapes to a terminally ill patient.
This is not in our minds. Our minds are actually trying to tell us something, if we would just stop and listen.
great commentary and insight. thank you
Nice post.
We will just have to agree to disagree on the necessity and motivations behind the two biggest wars crimes in history.
Still pissed about the Rape of Nanking and the Lusitania?
Thanks...I think.
Not sure about what we are disagreeing on.
We're saved, Bitches!
But this time is different.
EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!
Someone has to do it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCKONHUigVk
Green light for a rate hike.
Bingo. Rate hike this fall is a mortal lock.
Rates go up, currencies go down...
way down...
The Fed does whatever it takes to keep ES in its weekly uptrend channel. That's pretty much always what happens next.
Stay thirsty my friends
Card carrying members of the FSA are considered "fully employed."
What a victory. To have a full time employment force the same size as in the 70's, and unemployment claims to match it. Clearly, this is progress.
and the real kicker is that the population of the USA has declined significantly sinces the 70's, so those numbers are really good. Or did I miss something?
Americans, perhaps. Mexicans, no.
When you count anti-Americans the numbers balance out.
What happens next is that with 100 million Americans out of the workforce and what jobs are left disappearing faster than shit off a shovel there will soon be no Initial Jobless Claims at all.
With prosperity like that, who needs statistics?
Exactly, initial claims are a useless stat. for a few years now. If you are out of W2 work and your claims are exhausted, there is nothing to count.
Election bullshit just like any unemployment stat. less than 15%.
Those 93 million were on vacation last quarter. Lol. What an effing crapstat.
They're simply resting. Just you wait until they wake up...hungry. They probably won't be that interested in a job at that point, just simply hungry and ready to EAT something or somebody.
Probably pining for the fjords. Be careful not to rattle the cage, Norwegian blues stun easily.
Tons of jobs available if you want to flip burgers.
so buy aapl?
And don't forget those over-performing entertainment stocks. Unemployed people watch more movies and play more games.
As mentioned buy another...this and the article about retail sales, a rate hike is now a green light...in fact, it almost forces a rate hike..good retail sales, low unemployment, heck the fed will have egg on thier face if they dont raise rates....this is what they have been wiating for, and here it is.
They are in a corner. They must admit that the data is misleading and the economy is in much worse shape that they want to admit, or raise interest rates knowing it will kill what little life left in us.
Crap! They aren't in a corner, WE ARE!
They are more than willing to blow our brains out to preserve their own prestige. None of them have admitted to fucking up yet and there is no reason to think they EVER will. They will burn the whole thing to the ground, like any other ideologue. They surround themselves with the illusion of "science" to conceal the reality that it is ALL ideologically driven bullshit. The same we see with climate change...an ill defined science prescribing political solutions to an ill defined crisis.
hey oldwood...I made my last comment before reading yours..we kinda sound a bit the same... :-)
My favorite person to isten to lately is Jim Willie...I like the guy..jackass lol
Just wait. The secret messages are in Hillary's emails. The ones that got filed away with the 28 pages from the 9-11 report.
They can't raise rates, China is devaluing its currency.
We have a fullscale currency war.
What we need is MOAR QE!
NIRP me, bitches!
You look at this world financial system with normal eyes like mine and most others here at zh. the people running the system are crazy maniac lunatics out to destroy the world. I remember a movie I viewed once. A detective looking for a serial killer. He becomes the serial killer in his mind to catch him.He loses his family, his home, becomes an alcoholic, but he catches the serial killer in the end. Getting into the minds of the bankers will destroy my chi, so I just watch and try to make guesses.
this metric is so ancient. no one got hired back on a true 'employment' basis so there is no one to layoff again. we are all independent contractors, temp workers, p/t employees who will never qualify for 'unemployment claim'.
as compared to auto workers who get 'laid off for a few weeks each year, collect a govt check and then go back to work. why is my tax $, again and continually, subsidizing the auto industry?
It's great that gas is cheaper. It allows me to drive around more to look for jobs that don't exist
My Oldsmobile agrees.
There are two part time jobs for every full time job lost.
Simply ignore the fact that a lot of folks are working two jobs, while a third of the population has enlisted in the FSA, and BOOM! Low, low unemployment rate.
Lying assholes.
Yeah, not sure what this means. Maybe not enough creativity for creative destruction. But it's better than the alternative.
For you mopes, we're at an all time high for workers, and part-timers do qualify for benefits. So it's not independent contractors or part time work that explains it. I don't know what's going on but the fewer people on the dole the better.
That's right dear. Sweet dreams.
Rock n Roll McDonalds
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWWsWP9bPAg
Yellen about to be replaced by a schizophrenic and obese black man, who is now dead.
"McDonalds is the place to rock... McDonalds' hamburgers are the worst." Not much else needs to be said.
Good post winmag, I also like Oldwood’s comments below as well.
The only additional observation I would make is that while I agree that there are jobs being advertised, I have firsthand knowledge that age discrimination is rampant in the employment market. More concerning is that there is absolutely no way to prove it. I know of many healthy, smart, skilled and experienced guys over 50 with great work ethic (not expecting any favors) that simply cannot get a job – even if they agree NOT to sign up for health insurance and are willing to accept pay scales that would normally apply to an inexperienced worker. The job adds run for weeks after known applicants of the aforementioned type have applied and been rejected.
That tells me that there is something seriously dysfunctional going on in the workplace right now – and I believe it has to do with the political targeting of older white males in our society.
These companies could massively benefit from an experience pool, especially in manufacturing, that is rapidly atrophying. Once lost, this generation’s knowledge will not be replaced, in my opinion. In effect we are eating our seed corn by allowing the cabal to eviscerate our economy.
I have had younger workers communicate to me that there is nobody to learn from in the workplace. They are surrounded by inexperience workers, or incompetent foreign workers, and nobody knows what they are doing – all because the employers were unprepared to take any risk on older more knowledgeable workers..
My advice to older highly qualified high work ethic workers is start your own business if possible (I know, easier said than done). It is the only way I know of to undermine this cabalist cartel.
What you have written is almost all correct. The broadest reasons I can give you for the problems are these.
- US Government policies no longer favor the US worker that is employed in American Corporations making money in the US.
- The Boomer Generation Managers are quickly cashing out of the system. They are being replaced by the PC Crowd, and Finance is everything crowd. Ageism is rampant as the older worker is both a greater liability as well as a non fit in the PC world of multiculturalism.
- Same for Govt workers, thinkers and social engineers, especially political appointees.
In essence the adults are all leaving at the same time and turning the keys over to people who believe in Globalism, Borderless movement of labor, More Govt Control, and unlimited benefits for those that do not work or have never meaningfully worked.
Only those that were in the work force of the 1960's, 70's and 80's can see it. All other think that what we now have in the work place is "normal."
I also suspect that discrimination of all kinds becomes much more prevalent in hard times. Likely a natural response to pressure. I think everything we experience is in some way related to our base instincts, and it is no coincidence that those base instincts are the one thing that the elite are trying to stamp out...supposedly for our own good. Anyone who believes in any form of evolution has to acknowledge that it must also be responsible in large part for where we are today. I don't think it is doubted at all by those who seek to manipulate us for whatever reason, but as doing such, they will likely never admit it for fear of not only backlash, but the loss of its effectiveness if commonly known and anticipated. We are steeped in the perspective that we are free, while simultaneously being drip fed every value and motivation, every need and desire, every concept of our existence. We are free because we do not see our restraints, and where they are too obvious to conceal, they are presented not as restraints, but our protection. Those under the greatest attack are those who seek to publicly demonstrate, illuminate and expose these facts.
These companies could massively benefit from an experience pool, especially in manufacturing, that is rapidly atrophying. Once lost, this generation’s knowledge will not be replaced, in my opinion. In effect we are eating our seed corn by allowing the cabal to eviscerate our economy.
The short answer is that there absolutely is a war of extermination being waged against Anglo-Saxon peoples by goyim-scorning Zionist psychopaths. And the whole world is being propagandized that all Jews march in ideological lock-step, so that the enraged masses will turn their fury at ordinary Jewish people who have NOTHING AT ALL TO DO WITH WHAT IS BEING PERPETRATED BY THE ZIO-PSYCHOS.
The shorter answer is that every single bit of this shit is being done on purpose.