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This Alarming Indicator Is Back At A Level Last Seen 10 Days Before The Bear Stearns Collapse
One of the most disturbing and recurring themes highlighted on this site over the past year has been the ever greater disconnect between the worlds of equity and fixed income, whether in terms of implied volatility, or actual underlying risk.
It turns out there is an even more acute, and far more concerning divergence, which was conveniently pointed out overnight by Bank of America's Yuriy Shchuchinov, one which again looks at the spread between credit and equity. Specifically, BofA notes that in just the past two weeks, credit spreads from our HG corporate bond index have widened another 9bps to 164bps while equity volatility is down another percentage point (although technically BofA uses the 3rd VIX futures as its measure of equity volatility rather than VIX itself to get a smoother series that is less affected by the daily noises and seasonalities).
This is how the resulting dramatic divergence looks like:
Why is this notable?
In BofA's own words: "this spread currently translates into 10.26 bps of credit spread per point of equity vol, the level reached on March 6, 2008 – ten days before Bear Stearns was forced to sell itself to JP Morgan for $2/sh. Recall that – unlike the credit market – the equity market well into 2008 was very complacent about the subprime crisis that led to a full blown financial crisis."
In other words: unprecedented equity complacency matched by a state of near bond market panic.
BofA is quick to note that it is "not predicting another financial crisis" but believes "it is important to keep highlighting to investors across asset classes that conditions in the high grade credit market are currently very unusual."
BofA's conclusion:
The key reason for this weakness is that our market has transitioned from “too much money chasing too few bonds” to “too many bonds chasing too little money”. That shift is motivated by the impending Fed rate hiking cycle as issuance, M&A and other shareholder friendly activity has been accelerated while at the same time demand has declined. Again, we are not trying to predict a crisis – only to point out that the upcoming rate hiking cycle appears to concern issuers and investors so much that they have been taking real actions that have repriced our market lower relative to equities to an extent that we have only seen during the financial crisis.
And, of course, there is the whole deflationary commodity collapse-slash-China crash/devaluation/bursting credit/housing/market bubble, which also is a screaming read flag, but which stocks have also decided to ignore because, well, "central banks got their back." Until they don't.
In the meantime, we can't wait to find if this is the first time in the history of capital markets when it is stocks that are right, and bonds wrong. Because if not, we are confident that nobody, certainly no equity traders, is positioned in a way that another Bear Stearns-type blow up will be merely chalked away to the ever growing list of things that one should simply ignore and focus on an S&P which remains just a few percentage points below its all time record high.
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Well, now we know SNB's trading strategy for the day: buy HG bond index until the spread collapses.
Very grateful that it is not since Lehman. The weekend has been saved.
Everything is coming apart, we are so far from any recovery
Layoff List: http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
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This is the 985th indicator at the level of imminent market collaps. And yes...its true...the last time this indicator reached this level the market corrected. This time the PPP will print their way to another all time higher high.
At what point does the doctor quit with the defibrillator and adrenaline injections and call this patient dead?
Right after they let the genie out the bottle.
As expected, Houston-based Hercules Offshore Inc. (Nasdaq: HERO) has filed its voluntary Chapter 11 petitions and its reorganization plan in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware in Wilmington.
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2015/08/13/houston-offshore-dril...
"... as expected ...."
With the VIX at all time lows as our Federal Reserve masterfully engineers volatility and risk out of the market, there really isn't much to worry about. Our stock market continues to follow its steady linear uptrend, which shows no sign of breaking any time soon, our NFP results are consistently strong, and interest rates remain low, easing the our debt burden and stimulating spending in the economy. Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have created a legacy as the most impactful economic planners in history, taking us from the brink of collapse in 2007 to the stable growing economy that we are all enjoying today.
You crack me up, MDB, even if others continue to take you seriously.
Keep it up.
As a staunch liberal and dedicated fighter of anti-semitism, I strongly believe that The Chosen People will lead us out of this mess like they always do. Let's just sit back and worry about racism and homophobia in this world and leave them to do God's work.
You might take over MDB's throne with that one. Holy mackerel!
There's been an alarming indicator since 1946 called FASCIST USSA, but that indicator hasn't made one fucking difference has it, so who the fuck cares about VIX?
So I guess this means that Cramer & Dick Bove will be on the idiot box in 5..4..3..2.. telling us to buy banks & BROKErages.
Yes.
Even if the the PTBs only shear a few sheep...
“stocks that are right, and bonds wrong”
Central Bank insanity RULES!
Now just sit down and have a drink..
here,, have some Vicodin to go with that Scotch.
(Jack Nicholson joke)
How is this playing in...
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whats-Really-At-Stake-With-The...
DaddyO
BOOOOOOORRRRRRRIIIIIINNNNNNNNNGGGGGGGGGG!
You're overdoing it just a little bit, MDB.
Couldn't have said it better myself mdb
Now pass the bottle
I love me a good satire.
MDB for President
I'd fully support him only if he's black or brown or gay or lesbian or transgender.
Just look at all the up votes...
The landscape on the hedge has changed dramatically.
Don't worry Ma, the tornado is going to miss us...
DaddyO
"Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have created a legacy as the most impactful economic planners in history..."
No, that honor belongs to Greenspan .. (who was just doing the bidding of his RKM masters. The RKM, following orders given via Dachau. Dachau, still a front for _____. Halls of mirrors, halls of mirrors.)
http://tuppersaussy.com/museum/html/writings/articles/15brienner.html
this is complacency at its best really. In Brazil some stocks are crashed already, despite some healthy stocks still good. Anyone can see a crash happening here. I bet it's the same in other world markets.
Wondering how large the credit exposure is to the energy industry given the amounts that poured into fracking. Could major write downs in this sector trigger the next economic collapse? Or will the sub prime auto lending failure be the catalyst, this time? Or, maybe China and / or Europe?
...or the $1.2 Trillion in student loans. Even if every one of the top 50 billionaires in the world were to find charity in their hearts, it would still not be nearly enough to pay off this debt.
convergence of all of the above. dry wood ready to ignite.
It will be fallout from Devin's Bachelor party on the Young and the Restofus.
My wife told me; I believe her and therefore am happily married for another 24 hours, probably through the weekend.
exactly. I would have said that we are going to lose a big Texas bank or two, because when energy crashes the Texas real estate market follows, with a year or so lag. But Texas doesn't have its own banks. So who banks the oil patch? I remember seeing a lot of JP Morgan = Chemical Bank & TexasCommerce & Louisiana Commerce. But now, if one goes, they all go.....because
Concentration is
1) a good thing
2) inevitable
3) really, really dumb
4) the opposite of a market mechanism
And, derivatives markets are like that. Especially in commodities.
The surprise party is gonna be big and everybody is invited, so come as your favorite third world country......
FreeMoney - My best guess is after the election. 2017 is when Jim Grant seems to think major correction will happen and he is far more connected politically than most or all of us here.
I try not to say too much because I am not in equities right now so I have no skin in that game. I will say I don't try to time market tops or bottoms.
"FreeMoney": To follow your emergency-room doctor analogy, as long as the doctor can bill for procedures and know he'll get paid, he'll pull out every single tool he's got before he declares the patient deceased.
when they've sucked the last vestiges of wealth from the muppets and the Gulfstream is gassed up ready to go to the island 'retreat'.
He wont. He's having too much fun watching the nurses bend over to check the patients vitals.
When the doctor looks around and determines that all those "who matter" won't suffer, but will profit from the patients demise.
"In my weakness lay my strength"
~The Dao of Satoshi
Okay fonestar, what the fuck, I'll give you a green. Sounded good.
Testing, testing...(cough!) BitCoin sucks (cough!).
yep, fonestar is back. knew it as soon as i saw his first post
" Very grateful that it is not since Lehman. The weekend has been saved. "
Our new favorite meme....
SINCE BEAR STEARNS !!!!
Drink up me hearties !!!!!
According to that chart, Bear Stearns happened halfway up, but Lehman occurred near the peak. So if BS was the canary, then LH was the mine collapsing.
your tongue in cheek comment reminded me of the historic jewel in the SNB's crown, the 1.50 euro/sf floor...
lots of traders were wiped out then, so be very careful trusting that some CB has your back
If figures don't lie, this spread is extremely bad for Bear Stearns. Wait, Bear Stearns doesn't exist anymore. Maybe then it is bad news for BofA analysts as that bank's president, Brian Moynihan, looks to save his job by throwing as many employees overboard as he can to cut costs and appease a Board of Directors who are running dogs for John Paulson.
We've noticed a massive spike in silver sales over the pass week https://www.eurgold.eu
Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium with Euro, Great British Pound, US Dollar and Bitcoin!
https://www.eurgold.eu
It is all coming apart...there is nothing the Central bankers can do to stop it...
Hoping it's Goldman Sachs this time. Fingers crossed!
Don't hold your breath. You better believe the squid will be well positioned for the next and final collapse.
"You better believe the squid will be cause and profit from the next collapse." - fixed. Yeah, I can't wait for the next "tanks in the street" speech to CONgress.
Go ahead motherfuckers, ask for another bailout, I triple dog dare you!!!
They won't ask and there isn't shit you can do about it. Ask the Greek people.
Gee, thanks captain obvious. As I say often, get long black markets, sharecropping and guillotines.
same as it ever was...
I'm trying to enjoy what we have before it all implodes. I really do hope they can fake it for another 100 years. I like the Matrix and really, really don't want to be around when society collapses into chaos.
Collapses requires motivation, I don't see a lot of motivated people around. The decline into chaos will be slow and measured, that's my bet anyway. Life goes on, you just might not recognize it [life] over a long enough time period.
Same as it ever was...
I hope you are correct. I can always increase my alcohol consumption to match the decline in humanity.
Normalcy bias refers to a mental state people enter when facing a disaster. It causes people to underestimate both the possibility of a disaster occurring and its possible effects.
It's rare that I agree with Law Of, but observation is observation.
We have been in a slow decline since 1971, when sound money died. Soon after that the japs changed the car market forever, and detroit/major industrial cities died. 20 years later Ross Perot called it a giant sucking sound.
An astute observer has seen the slow decline in progress for 40+ years now. It's normalcy bias to think things were good one day, then totally down the toilet the next. Not true at all.
Reality occurs when things start getting worse faster than people can lower their standards. Then all hell breaks loose.
Bangin - Did that drinking thing for awhile now more gym and focusing on a publising opportunity to normalize a portion of the market. May not finish it before the next crunch but it pays the bills and allows some hedging.
At 45 my body doesnt let me get away with what it once used to, blood pressure is up into dangerous levels and I intend to see the other side of this cycle so moderation required ...
I do gym 6 days a week and drink 3 days a week. It's a nice balance that seems to work for me. And I can crush most 20 year olds at both!
Raging Debate:
I ignored the BP levels, ingnored my doctor who said I should consider meds to lower the BP. I was not too out of shape and I exercised - some of the time- like 5 or 6 times over the course of a month for 30 min at a time.
Then I had a stroke.
I was lucky. At age 49, I recovered fully after about 1 month. I could not walk, drive, or use my right hand for the first 10 days. It was scary and it sucked big time. If your doc has mentioned meds- take them!
Good luck
Raging, you may have a vitamin B6 deficiency - that can cause high blood pressure. Also you may need magnesium and potassium and (some) zinc.
We hit the peak in growth at least 15 years ago, and we hit an inflection point on growth >40 years ago. This has been a slow and measured collapse that we've been in for quite some time. Our monetary system is the largest ponzi scheme that the world has ever known. We are closer to the endgame than not. Just watch how lazy and unmotivated people become when EBT either stops, or amounts to nothing.
"The time at which there will be no other choice but to reject the current system entirely is fast approaching. That moment may come very soon, it almost came in 1979..."
Ron Paul Prelude to "A Case for Gold" 1983
While I agree we are closer to endgame, no one believed what the gov would do to keep it together. I expect a slow grind down and for things to get much more ridiculous, even surreal. This could take a while longer.
The ponzi nature of fiat curriencies requires perpetual exponential growth. That growth ended around 2000, and has been replaced by more and more fraud. There was fraud before that point - there always is, but now it is in your face.
Restarting that growth for the US would require 20+ million barrels of oil per day at <$30/bbl, with the capacity to increase that significantly. That's not going to happen. We need to start winding things down and looking to more local solutions to a lot of problems, but the monetary system will not let us. Very few will understand things like CDSs, interest rate swaps, rehypothecation, fractional reserve banking, etc... but they will understand that they're getting fucked when they cannot find a good job, cannot afford to pay rent or their morgtage and get tossed out on their asses while a very small percentage of the country prospers on a greater scale than they're suffering.
Collapses happen as a result of unbalanced forces acting upon what seems to be stationary, what appears to be in a state of rest.
They are exponential and dramatic.
The motivation (the motive force) is already present. The people have already acted to bring about this eventuality many, many years ago.
You are attempting to model linearity upon an exponential curve. It can be done for a little while... But then the divergences cannot be accounted for.
You are intentionally deluding yourself as to the rate of decline into the chaotic.
Stop attempting to place a linear model upon that which you know to be exponential.
Tick Tock motherfuckers?
...and yet, here we are.
Another captain fucking obvous. Gee, thanks... NOT.
Again, don't be average Tom, I do understand exponential equations as I am sure you do to.
Yep. Alaric-409 AD. Oduacer -476 AD. Rome stumbled along for another 67 years after getting knocked the fuck out and pissed on in front everybody, and was still talking shit and belittling the scribes at Zerous Hedgeus, I might add.
Things happen much faster today than they did during antiquity. You can complete a financial transaction with somebody in China in the time that it takes you to type in a a few things and click send. It's not clear that there was ever a Roman who made it to China or a Chinaman who was ever in Rome, though there was certainly indirect trade. If you have the money, you can also be just about anywhere on earth within 24 hours, with Antarctica as the possible exception. During antiquity, movement (and consequently trade) was limited by the speed of the horse, pedestrian and how fast the wind would push a ship. We have built up a society that is far more complex in terms of laws and the reach of economic interactions, and that complexity has long since reached the point of diminishing returns. We have >$200 trillion in derivatives piled on top of $58 trillion in debt (and that's using mark-to-unicorn accounting) along with all major institutions that people rely on being corrupt, incompetent, or both. If we do everything right, we have until 2021 or 2022 until those institutions start to fall apart due to the costs of the complexity being greater than our society can afford, and I seriously doubt we are going to do everything right.
2008 should have been the big wake-up call that we seriously need to back off of globalization and move more towards, at the very least, the local production of necessities.
"We're not going to make it, are we?"
"It is in your nature to destroy yourselves."
John Connor & Terminator 2
My personal favorite...
"On August 29th, 1997, it's gonna feel pretty fucking real to you too. Anybody not wearing 2 million sunblock is gonna have a real bad day. Get it?"
Sarah Connor
"mark-to-unicorn accounting"
:)
Since Jeffrey Skilling & the ENRON debacle I have wondered when I would come across someone that waxed poeticially about 'mark-to-market' accounting, El Vaquero.
10pts
The dismantling of the superstructure has already occurred. The decent into Hell & Purgatory will manifest slowly at first, and then it will come at us all at the speed of sound. Moreover, this is NOT the same as it ever was and should be viewed as the worst the World has ever encountered based on the dark pool derivatives universe alone.
William Jefferson "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinski" Clinton signed the repeal of Glass-Steagall.
Bangin - Yeah I was prudent and had some dough. The business was very slow this summer so I partied hardy. That said we're entering another big wave of evolution which provides system refinement opps. Restoring brakes and modifying some with better process.
The only constant is change. Trying to live in the past just creates the stagnation we see today. It is just delaying the inevitable, pissing into an evolutionary tidal wave.
I agree I dont look forward to extended medium term pain but I am an optimist for the species overcoming and adapting near the end of our biomechanical stage of our evolution. We have and are going to witness some really crazy accelerating shit.
I'm guessing you don't have children or family members who are then. Because if you do, its clear you don't care about them, at all.
sheit, then you will take all the criminal politicians down (all)
Hopium! It's what's for breakfast.
Second breakfast, brunch, lunch, dinner, supper, midnight snack...
Causes inflammation and doesn't feed the brain - so we see the contrast of mental "skinnies" in a physical 'puffy'.
just buy some moar cds. that shit always pays off big time. /s
Just buy any dip and go back to sleep....
This thing is so messed up. It's like a 10,000-piece puzzle that can only be put back together correctly once every last piece has been disconnected all at the same time. Gonna' be a bitch to put back together since all the pieces are pitch black.
Don'tgoforit - Yep the story of Humpty-Dumpty.
The next 16 days will see no repeat of the prior March 2008 sitchiation.
Bank it.
You are probably correct, but one of these imbalances is eventually not going to get proped up and papered over properly one of these days.
Don't forget about the Bear Stearns Jewish lightning round bonus point segment during.. the game show blitz.
;-)
does anyone remeber when S&P put options sold by insurence companies to Buffet in 2008 expire?
15-20 years
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/256254/naked-short-put-options--warren-buffetts-little-secret
I don't. If memory serves me correctly, he had two Berkshire Hathaway type investment vehicles to invest in. Perhaps he's using Geico to crowdfund upcoming financial losses. It would be easy to underwrite new debt exposure and roll it back as new debt precured.
Just a hunch.
Wrong way trade on oil and CNY.Massive leverage covered by derivative contracts.Who is the biggest issuer of derivatives on the planet? Oh and those PM shorts are about to be going ballistic as people head for safety.China has been and will continue to dump UST and acquiring AU.China is the one area the central banks cannot control.Wild card....
So, should we expect a big ramp up in Fed purchases,
or have they shot their wad?
Per BofA:
“too many bonds chasing too little money”.
Per Jim Willie:
The USTreasury Bond is acting like a gigantic financial black hole. All other bonds are being forsaken in order to hold the sovereign bond from the protected exceptional nation,
The major bond investors have long ago sold out to the USFed, which has accumulated a $4.8 trillion heaping pile of toxic paper that nobody wants. The USFed has become the USTBond market, the buyers long gone.
JPMorgan is on the hot seat, the center of some unwanted attention since it has become known that the venerable crime syndicate hive had sold over twice the total USGovt bond issuance in its worldwide offices.
It is concealed QE volume, part of the biggest lie in US financial history since the USFed has generated multiple $trillions in hidden channel support.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51778.html
I wish they would just get on with it and stop fucking about. I am ready to go.
I wish they would just get on with it and stop fucking about. I am ready to go.
Is there really a bond panic going on?
All of these indicators are useless now because the Fed can just print moar to cover up the fraud that is the eCONomy
That is until something real actually blows up
the fed gangsters ARE THE FRAUD.
regulators are crap, repo's where it's at.
it's all fraud built on a lie within a conspiracy
can & will & does, FOREVER, or this ponzi goes down
Nothing lasts forever.
Does it really matter how long forever lasts, when your family is destroyed?
The entire system is the fraud because of the hollow people that make it up.
The "make it up" is key; there is no there there.
To quote Nassim Taleb: "We have an 'expert problem'".
Could we hope for a the Morgue or the Vampire Squid to collapse this time. Hell, we would settle for a Shittybank collapse. Or even a Douchebag collapse.
Besides, it will bring back some activity on Zero Hedge which has been doing a fairly accurate impression of a morgue lately.
Actually ZH is doing fine per Alexa:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/zerohedge.com
Looks like a double bottom consolidation, recovery on the way
dream on
what's the issue? Yellen will just buy high yield bonds then.
Brilliant....absolutely brilliant. You my friend deserve a Nobel peace prize
As Janet accepts her Nobel Prize in Economics...
Heckuva job, Janet!
my personal disconnect is every stock on my board is down 30 to 60 per cent over the last several months. they obviously don't enjoy the same priveleges as aapl and tsla.
Goldman Sachs stock has gone to zero! *wakes up*
*smiling*
Then, reality sets in and the status quo returns... resembling waking from the dream in Rush 2112
(looks interesting - http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x31l4f_rush-2112-live-1976_music)
Aw man, Alex Lifeson is a personal hero of mine. You made my day.
Neil Peart stands alone.
Let me think, is there anything about the bond market that would not make it a free-flowing gauge of economic health this time around. Hmm, it's on the tip of my brain, what could it be . . . . .
This time is different. There will be no crash and as long as we have great leadership like we have now there will NEVER be a crash or even a correction. We have Barack Obama, the greatest president yet, and next we'll have Hillary Clinton who will also be a excellent president. This is nothing to concern yourself about and people who are making a big deal of it are simply RACISTS who hate the president simply because of his skin color.
i can recognize sarcasm, especially when slapped in the face with it...either that, or you are a mouth-breathing, white guilt riddled 'progressive'. hope it's the former...
"Tyrone! De gameboy ain't workin' and de TV is dead!"
"Jus set it outside de do' White man'll come alon' a fits it."
Well, gee, there is nothing ever invented a negro can't fuck up....
Depending on his real father, he's either 1/2 or even only 1/4 negro -- so maybe it's the half or 3/4 other race that's to blame; just like the 43 before him.
At what point do you non-racist Americans not consider him to be a negro -- 7/8ths, 15/16ths?
From my personal experience, the 1% rule is still a good rule.
Not only are they racists -they are also anti-semites who hate AmeriKa. It's people like this who want another Holocaust. These people are also responsible for the bearded man in the cave and his 19 flunkies causing 911. If not for such america haters, we would have had the Patriot Act and the safety and security of the Police State long ago. And I'm still mad about the great injustice done to Dick Fuld and Lehman Brothers. These patriotic banks should have been bailed out long before the crashofMarch 2009. If we had listened to Wall Street -Goldman sachs and Dick paulsen -Dick Fuld would have been a billionare like Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein and Larry Silverstein. Instead, he's probably only worth a half billion. It's just not fair.
Dick Fuld refused to toe the elitists' line somewhere along the way, and was made an example of, plain and simple. Take Jamie Dimon...despite all the fines and attention it's all a shell game, JPM is part of the club, the fines are window dressing, and he's "richer than you" because he does their bidding, period.
just say no to bath salts or you'll soon be eating people's faces for a snack
3/10
No way would I trust this market. But like the article says "until the central banks don't have your back." That is the thing who knows what they are going to decide. It could be anything and not something that benefits everyone unless it benefits them too, and they can actually keep pulling it off. They may have to yield. Get out now.
Didn't Wolf point out the 10 bps last week.
Captain Buffett: Man your battle stations!
Captain Yellen: She Canne take any more load, Captain!
Captain Jenner: I'll take that load
Well, if Brucie was always really a chick, he should give up his medals.
Blow another load on me, Kanye!
Hell this is better than that bitch I'm married to. That fuckin' ass grows every day! There is only so much booty a Brother can take!..... Here it cums, Kate!
Oh! Oh! I love to see a dick and balls since mine are gone!
I secretly preserved them cryogenically. You can get them back if the TV show fails.
Great, now shoot that wad! The cameras are rolling! It's a million dollar shot according to the Contract!
When this thing blows, it might be best to turn off the Internet for a week.
that's what the internet kill switch is for - when it blows up, TPTB will want to control precisely the volume and what type of information the sheeple are getting. can't have an internet knocking about, sharing un-vetting information with the masses. the 'truth' straight from the horse's mouth via the talking heads on teevee...
Of course it will be a National Security issue.
Those kids look like this when you cut off their addiction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wRHnRM5zTY
RIPS
The net's dead, Jim.
Lock and load, bones.
You'll see your stock dropping on CNBC, but you can't use the net to sell cause its down and when you try the phone all you get is a busy signal.
The famous LC quote may apply:
"Run, men, she's gonna blow! We drilled too deep!"
ToSoft, you just know they'll do that for you, and longer than a week or as long as it take the Smart Money to unload.
Alarmed or scared?
In a free market, if there were too many bonds chasing too little money then the yield on the bonds needed to attract buyers should rise. Which if we had a non corrupt fed would lead the fed to raising rates. Yes this might cause a recession in some industies, but it would also clear the over issuance of bonds (used for corporate buybacks and money losing energy drilling) in
The operative phrase here being "in a free market"...
But when your Federal Government has $17 trillion to roll over, the last thing you want is a free market.
That would be $18 trillion and frozen so as not to scare the plebs.
And what is this "rate hiking cycle" of which ye speak?
I think I go for the beginning of the end.....not the end of the beginning. Too many forces in play this time. FED and other CBs cannot control the forces this time.....print, print, print! Translated, that means devalue, devalue, devalue. The Asians just decided to arrive early to the devaluation party.
I think I go for the beginning of the end.....not the end of the beginning. Too many forces in play this time. FED and other CBs cannot control the forces this time.....print, print, print! Translated, that means devalue, devalue, devalue. The Asians just decided to arrive early to the devaluation party.
Shehitah is coming
Meaningless.
Wack-a-Mole investment theory, except they won't tell us which mole they're going to wack next.
Everyone seems to be in tacit agreement that the Fed will be able to plug every hole in the dike with money . . . until they can't. I've been watching the current credit bubble via the declining JNK etf that is also ready to test the prior crisis breakdown. Things should get interesting in the coming few months and I'll be shocked if Yellen raises rate ever. The showdown is coming with Mr. Market in one corner and Yellen in the other. Market always wins and if this doesn't put a bid under gold then nothing will.
the fed is going to stuff hillary full of money?
No room. Her cottage cheesy, triple Big Gulp obese thighs have stretched her grey skin to the limit.
I am sure glad that since 2010 I have used this blog to do the exact opposite of what it preaches, although, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
They say: they do not ring a bell when the time of the bust is coming, but jee my ears are buzzing like crazy!