This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Using Hollywood Movies To Call Market Tops
Previously we reported on Horseman Capital's uncanny ability to generate market-beating returns (outperforming 98% of peers since 2012) despite having a net -50% short position offset by treasury longs. Now, we take a quick detour into one of the prop investment bets used by Horseman's CIO, Russel Clark, namely Hollywood's ability to pull a Dennis Gartman, and make a dramatic appearnace at all the key market inflection points.
From the July Horseman Letter:
I notice with interest, that Hollywood still retains its unmatched ability to call market tops. 2014 film, “Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit” details a plan by Russia to crash the US dollar and destabilise the American financial system. At the time of the film’s release, 34 rubles bought 1 USD, while at time of writing you require 62 rubles to buy 1 USD. If anything, you could argue that sanctions, plus the US deal with Iran have been a plan hatched by the US to crash the ruble and destabilise the Russian financial system!
Another 2014 film was “Interstellar” a film I enjoyed so much that I think I have seen it three or four times. Curiously, the film begins in the future, but is never explicit in dates. A search on the internet has most people suggesting the film being set in 2060s or 2070s. The film implies that in the 2030 or 40s declining natural resources causes technological progress to reverse and humans to seek a new planet to call home. Curiously, since Interstellar’s release date sugar prices have fallen 35%, milk prices by 45%, and oil prices by 35%.
While I generally cite Hollywood for its reverse indicator power, the literature world can also work. 2014 release and Man Booker Prize nominated “Bone Clocks”, by David Mitchell of Cloud Atlas fame, also imagines a future where energy and technology becomes increasingly scarce, and that China is the dominant country globally. This comes in a story set in 2045, although we can assume that the crisis occurs in the 2030s.
The themes in Bone Clocks seem to match up quite closely with the 2012 film “Looper” which I discussed in my Hollywood note. The film was set in 2044 and depicted a future where the US had fallen apart. The protagonists in the film solely used gold, silver and Renminbi as currency, implying that the US dollar had continued to fall in value. We can see that the creative industry views on commodities have been proven wrong. However, the assumption in Bone Clocks and Looper that China will continue to be ascendant versus the US has not been disproved. From an economic and currency perspective, China has continued to be the one currency that has held its value versus the US dollar recently, and the economy has continued to grow at 7% a year.
There are signs of weakness emerging from the Chinese economic growth perspective and more and more companies report slowing growth. Furthermore, the People’s Bank of China has recently suggested widening of the trading band for the Renminbi to allow more flexibility. Perhaps a first step to devaluing? Your fund remains long bonds and short equities.
* * *
The above letter was written just a few days before China devalued its currency by the most on record.
»
- 31666 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Bone Clocks is one fine book.
Another phenomenal read is the trology by Margaret Atwood: Oryx and Crake, The Year of the Flood and MaddAddam
Long of bonds is good.
amateur propaganda films also call market top and societal bottom: http://www.philiacband.com/propaganda.html
We prefer cash.
Nothing can spare what's coming>>>
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/08/14/when-money-is-the-pr...
An article about "teh jooz!" by a group of people that worship a jewish zombie.
Seems legit.
The Muppet movie in 2008....
Is that the one where the muppets get rich? If so this is a scarily prescient indicator.
I'm going to France!
Ends up going to China
I REMEMBER that movie!
This was right before Doc 'Abram' Brown introduced the Chinese-made, French-designed Quisinart 'Jigawatt' nuclear disseminatimng processor to the shores of Honshu (Fukushima Province) to his mentor, 'Mr. Crowley' (first name 'Joe')!
CHINA, of course, is an isolated kingdom of mystery, surrounded by a 'Great Wall' to the East, and impenetrable to attack from the West due to The vastness of the Pacific Ocean.
GODZILLA could NEVER approch THEIR shores!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T65rW_SIzg0
A Hollywood guy by the name of Raymond Burr was the 'occidental star' in this one.
Does this mean that the river of absolute SHIT being pumped out of Hollywood lately indicates that America's finest hour is just around the corner?
Hell yeah! U S A !! U S A !!!
I don't watch shit TV or shit Hollywood. It seems like they are all into glorfiying the alphabet agencies, surveillance, technology spying, the serfs enjoying militarized police, drones, SWAT, HomeLand Police State Security.
In retrospect, Terminator and T2 with SkyNet seemed like fantasy. How close are we too that now with Google, drones, the En Ess Aye and more.
Anyone actually remember a real film maker like Francis Ford Coppola who showed the insanity and evil of the banksters Vietnam war (all wars are banksters wars).
Or his incredible The Conversation about spying on people/surveillance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrhRsZ56b4g
Coppolla had the guts to portray the insanity of war and also the evils on spying on people.
Another great film made in Germany was The Lives of Others about spying on people and the police state in East Germany.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3_iLOp6IhM
Sadly the West today is no better than the old DDR and possibly it is even worse.
If I go to the movies, I fall asleep.
and you wonder why you can never make any money in the stock market
Such a dumb post.... Wish i could have those 30 seconds back
Yeah, I'm kinda scratching my head at this one.
Me to.
I'll give the author oil, but gas prices remain ballistic, and where does he buy milk, sugar, meat, eggs ...ect? Perhaps on Jupiter or Pluto.
I remember seeing some Keano Reeves movie once that was kinda weird.
Never thought so until remembering that Neo's passport expired on September 11th, 2001.
Dee-dee, dee-dee, dee-dee, dee-dee <--------- Twilight Zone music.
Search sept 23rd 2015 in movies
Oh, MAN!
You're, like, FREAKING ME OUT!
(Posted from Mommy's I-pod somewhere in the basement)
THAT'S IT! I'm going LONG on Reynold's Wrap!
<S> off
http://www.tribulation-now.org/2014/11/10/newtons-calculations-point-to-...
Day of attonement or Jesus returns for his bride along with a few other possibilities but there seems to be a consensus in "we are the end days." The religious folks just can't wait for this to happen. Seems they pray for it. And if it does (Samson option), more than likely, these same people would be found wandering around later, the ones killing for food, turning into animalistic predators in order to survive, however, before laying down to die for their Lord and King. Religous people are not prepping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc6p-KBoors F'ing Zombies - 9 min Laugh or Die
"There's something going on here"
(It's always about money)
No more goggling. Now it's Alphabetting, Alfie for short.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0060086/
I watched Fast Times at Ridgemont High and went long every joint that delivered pizza the next Monday.
YO!
My ex went to Rolling Hills High School, and she went down on every pizza guy that delivered joints every Monday (as long as they were LONG)!
Both Wall Street Movies didn't call market tops
There were many clues in the movie Looper. It was basically hinting to the audience that America would be over by 2070 and that first world civilization moved to The East. I will never forget the prophetic scenes in that movie. I took it as a warning.
About three years ago I watched a televised seminar on C-SPAN in which a researcher suggested that by the year 2060 America would be a socialist country, a change needed to support it's large population. The speaker argued that there was no way around this and had many chart projections proving his theory.
Why not? So Cal already looks like the set of Elysium.
"The investment advisor with the perfect or near-perfect record will fail as soon as you start to act on his recommendations"
-Harry Browne