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America's Economic Reset Will Trigger Global Recession, New Crises
Submitted by Eugen Bohm-Bawerk
In Episode 1 we showed how the US labour market changed dramatically from the 1970s on back of excess money printing which allowed Americans to buy tradable goods on the international market, hollowing out its own manufacturing base, and essentially creating an unsustainable consumer driven economy where the broad masses get their employment within service sector.
We will now take that a step further and look at what this has meant for the US worker. As our first chart shows, non-supervisory real wages stagnated in the early 1970s and has essentially remained flat ever since.
Measured labour productivity on the other hand continued upward, but its rate of growth shifted down. More on this in our next blog post.
The American middle class, i.e. the non-supervisory workers, managed to grow their consumption in the midst of stagnating wages through
- moving to two income households (women constitute almost 50 per cent of the labour force today)
- by increasing debt
It should be clear that when the share of women in the labour force has reached 50 per cent and further leverage of a shrinking household income has become counterproductive the end-game has started. The only way to increase living standards from here will be the old fashioned way; consume less than you produce and productively invest the surplus.
This brings us back to the previous post, where we suggested the end-game will be one where global manufacturing powerhouses such as China, Japan and Germany will discover their overexposure to exports to the same extent that the US is overexposed to its service sector. As Americans start to save more, invest it domestically and rebuild their manufacturing base global exporters will be forced to do the opposite. Needless to say, this change will not come voluntarily, but through recession, financial crisis and necessity. Excesses must be liquidated at some point, no matter.
But why did US wages stagnate? Simple, through a Faustian bargain they traded highly productive jobs in the manufacturing sector for low productive jobs in the service sector. While it felt great at the time – we are all amazed to see the convenient lifestyle Americans live – it came with long term consequences.
As the US employment changed toward part-time, low benefit, low paid service sector jobs the quality in the overall labour market deteriorated. We have made a job quality index to depict just this. Unsurprisingly, this index, along with so many, peaks right after Bretton-Woods collapses. And the really scary thing is how it has completely fallen off a cliff in the period after the financial crisis.
And while we could conclude this missive here, we will repeat an argument we made in How the FOMC got institutionally corrupt because it is a direct result of the changes that has occurred in the US labour market.
The so-called wealth effect that rules today’s macroeconomic model output brings quacks and charlatans like Greenspan to claim that stock market gains cause economic growth; perversely enough they are semi-right due to faulty concept of GDP and the way inflated asset values in the US can be used as leverage to purchases tradable goods on the international market. The last chart today talks volumes about what is going on in US policy circles, and why things have become as confused as they are.
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Pop! goes the weasel
They are Loosing control you say?
The economic reset will come with a monetary reset, and won't occur alongside a recession, but as a result of a recession/depression and crisis that may be intentional.
Quite likely, but it won't be isolated, the entire world will get to play. There are far too many drones leaching off of the productive this time around and many of them are being heavily radicalized by our elites. They think they can control the mob, but riots are forces of nature and is about as controllable as a tsunami....
Hmmm... hollow point bullets (Homeland security has how many?) controls riots quite handily.
I'm not so sure about your analagy.
This article is dead on accurate. All that China decoupling bullshit is a fairy-tale. Doody will hit the fan. But these things happen.
Hahahah....... sorry, it won't come with a monetary reset.
It'll come with an end to money as we know it. (Perhaps that's what you meant)
Electronic only, for then even black markets are destroyed and the government (whatever that means) contols all.
It is axiomatic that an Empire in decay turns upon its own.
And if you think you can bypass it with silver dollars think again, or rather look up the history of the Assignat. Prior to the French Revolution simply asking what a price was, in anything other than Assignats (the French official paper currency) was punishable by death.
And then shit got real and that law, along with all the others, became meaningless.
They own the black markets. It is the source of funding for all their black ops. You think they will destroy that golden egg? I have a really hard time believing that.
The US needs a civil/race war and a cleansing in blood. Hopefully, this economic collapse comes soon.
If Murica gets a "race war", the 0.01% will be quietly chuckling, while their toadies decry the horror.
Murica will be well-served if its remaining productive residents simply Go Galt, each in his own way, and absolutely minmize any skim that the Oligarchy extracts from their life activities.
Not in those charts!
Replace productivity by inflation in those charts and you'll see how you and every other American is loosing control against the overlords because you're paying, they're making and nobody knows what happens.
The poor get more poor, the middle class is getting smaller and the rich get a lot richer.
But nobody compalins because rich people are gods in America. Even those who are poor won't ever complain because there's proof in disney movies that they to can become billionaires by doing nothing.
America is on it's way to because what china was 50 years ago. At best they'll recover to a south American level after the reset.
China is becomming what America was in the 40's. They own the factories and in a decade their army will be bigger and better then America's army.
And Europe's economy will crash hard and falls at risk to become a fascist continent.
I disagree about China and US but cannot "prove it."
I think everyone is trying to fake it, and hopes they are not the one to fail first.
China is doing all the same shit the US is doing, but perhaps worse, only because they have more people to distribute the gains to (and they are not distributing them enough, their oligarchs are smuggling the ill gotten gains out of the country back to the US and Canada). Their real estate also is in a bubble with whole Potemkin cities, financed like subprime, then bundled and sold out into their market. Stock markets being bought up, like us, by central bankers directly and indirectly.
I don't think China gets to "take off" like you do. They will collapse in their effort to divert resources into competing with the US, kind of like Russia did.
I think Russia is not in as bad a shape (they already collapsed and cleared the debt), but they too are "hanging on" because of the collapse in oil prices.
I think I could point out this kind of thing with all the playahs!
Europe is the same. Not even Germany is solvent. All of them are smiling, demanding, and pretending when all of them are "bankrupt" after a fashion.
But all of them sit at the table and smile at each other, looking at their losing hands of cards, hoping the other one has even less to work with than they do.
I give China nothing. I used to be open about their chances, but not with some of the latest news from them.
Japan, walking dead.
I don't agree. There's a strong current of fascism, no doubt. But it's a wave..theyrethe dumb and disaffected few.
If you take the EU out of the equation what you're left with is a patchwork of independent but heavily intertwined nation states that have no other option but to open up to free trade as much as possible. We can't afford fascism or socialism...and beyond some echoed rhetoric and a few freaks nobody has the stomach for the real thing. Europe is currently a contintent that has no real ideology and no vision for the future...i think that's great, it's an asset.
Then it's a matter of getting those over land supply lines to China and Russia set up and you can create a beautiful trade circle spanning from China, via Russia into Western Europe, Africa and then back into the middle from.where oil.will flow in every direction. If you like history, like me, you'll know this actually a return to, and expansion of the organic trade routes that have always existed and are the lifeblood of human civilisation. We've lived in anomalous times but don't conflate a system crash with the complete downfall of society. Institutions fails, but they're just paper constructs. Knowledge, contact, relations built through trade and fair, open exchange, means of production...they all remain.
This is very optimistic... I know, but the US seems to think is important enough to stop from.happening, whatever the cost...
"As Americans start to save more, invest it domestically and rebuild their manufacturing base"
Sorry, kind of hard to "save" when you don't have a job and your currency is worth less and less each day,
Until it becomes worthless . . .
Introducing . . . the new Treasury Reserve Note . . . which will also be progressively devalued.
Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium with Euro, Great British Pound, US Dollar and Bitcoin.
https://www.eurgold.eu
factoid:
since the dawn of time, an ounce of gold has been worth the price of a tuxedo and a hooker in a leather dress.
current cost of same can be found online.
e.g., http://www.mensusa.com/products.aspx?id=3565
$199 for the tuxedo.
you pick the price for the escort.
bottom line is, metal still has *plenty* of room to drop further
hugs,
misteryellens
I would instead say that an ounce of gold could buy a nice firearm, and an ounce of silver could buy a nice steak dinner. Silver has some room to go up.
And I must question your taste in $199 tuxedos.
Not to mention his taste in intimate partners.
I am surmising you are not into leather.
Not into hookers.
A black potato sack is not a tuxedo.
The one I have,which mysteriously keeps shrinking between wearings, cost me over a thousand
pounds many years ago on Saville Row.It was on sale at the time.
Most of my clothing is functional and not too expensive, but it doesn't seem to shrink between wearings.
I found a pair of my jeans when clearing out my parents' house that were 40 years old and they hadn't shrunk either.
Maybe them fancy suits aren't all they are made out to be!
My excuse to Lady C as my weight has increased with age, and partial disablement.
.
@WC,
What no Men's Warehouse/Jos. A Bank in London? ;)
Never mind the quality,feel the vidth.No.
Had made some money very fast at the time,Easy come, easy go, as they say.
Wine,women,drugs and clothes saw most of it, the rest I wasted.
Excellent post Winston. ;-)
Assuming the serfs know what 'Savile Row' is?
A 199 dollar suit from wallmart shouldn't be his reference point indeed :)
The price that should be used is a quality tailored suit, that's about 2500 to 6000 euro's and up.
And why pay so much? I have 2 tailored suits and they don't just fit perfectly, those who know, see it. And in some meetings it's needed to wear a suit like this.
If I see somebody with a 200 euro suit... It's a kid and I'll forgive him or I'll pitty him for looking like a beggar.
and left hand release as a service must be like ... erm, 25$?
Come out to NM. A new-ish pair of blue jeans, shined boots, a nice hat, a nice shirt with a bolo tie and a sports coat is often considered formal attire. Go to the Santa Fe Opera, which does put on big productions, and there will be people there dressed like that rubbing elbows with tourists wearing nice evening gowns and tuxes.
Whose factoid?
So basically, these chimps here should have been mining gold & buying tuxedos & hookers?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mM6OIlreneA
Not gold, bitcoins. Less sodium cyanide involved.
Both are good. Just like everyone should have some AU and AG, everyone should get themselves a couple of BTC. Could come in handy.
Bitcoin is fiat without the paper.
factoid:
since the dawn of time, every fiat currency has failed.
The purchasing power of today's dollar is about 2c compared to the dollar in 1913.
bottom line is, the dollar still has *plenty* of room to devalue further
hugs
bottom line is, the dollar still has *plenty* of room to devalue further
Nice rebut!
factoid:
If the price of gold goes to 199 and silver continues to drop. You will NOT be able to obtain it at that price. But you will be able to continue to buy paper to wipe your ass until we end up like Venezuela
Factoid: We're fucked.
The simple life may be difficult to achieve but the simpler life is a much easier route to getting there.
I have adopted some rules one of which is to throw out ( or give to charity) a piece of clothing everytime I buy something new.
Resole or reheel my shoes twice before throwing out so as to give shoe repairers an income.
Credit card limit is less than one week's living expenses.
No Christmas presents to adult children. Only to grandchildren. My kids also don't give presents to each other at Christmas. Instead we pool our funds and suuport a charity.
Sold the second car a few years ago. Big savings.
Put on warmer clothing as a first step before turning on the heating as opposed to friends who turn on the central heating but walk around in shorts and t shirts.
My list goes on and I am planning more changes.
The big secret is to live the good life within the biundaries of the simple life.
Very good post. many of those things were common decades ago, but us young bucks got caught up in the consumerism economy for a bit and took it too far. Now, guys in my generation are all pulling back and trying to live like your post.
I shop for my work clothes at the Salvation Army Thrift store located in a buzzing wealthy suburb of the Cleveland, Ohio area and get a boatload of nice clothing that I will destroy at work for PEANUTS! I've saved thousands of dollars by doing this because when it comes to pride, I just smile and keep eye contact. The clothes don't make the man. The Man makes the Man!
Articles like these are stunningly asinine.
In 1913 the US was the world's number one oil producer and the EROEI on that oil was about 1000:1 for discovery and 20:1 to 40:1 for extraction. Fast forward to today. The US's conventional production peaked and went into relentless decline decades ago, EROEI on discovery and extraction are below 10:1, and the only way to afford more oil is to expand the credit supply.
As of now the dollar is no longer a proxy for the American economy, it is a proxy for oil. When people begin to realize this, the dollar becomes a hard currency. History is repeating again, except unlike going off metallism, going off crude means going off food and just about everything else. I'm still waiting for the "you shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of crude" speech by the one-in-a-billion politician who comprehends thermodynamics.
excellent!
Love the W J Byran reference, too.
You are correct in your Petro Dollar evaluation. But, this only holds true as long as the USD is the Reserve Currency. Oil is starting to be traded in currencies other then the USD. How long will the USD remain the defacto currency for oil?
"How long will the USD remain the defacto currency for oil?"
Until all the gold has gone East. When the sovereign buyers of physical have had their fill, they will begin the process of dismantlilng the West...
;-D
Likely after WWIII. Power does not tend to shift peacefully, it must be wrested from the hands of those who wield it.
And if most of the world's oil transactions are settled w/o the $USD, does the dollar remain a proxy for oil?
Or if demand for oil worldwide begins to decline, does such a proxy dynamic continue?
I understand your point (entropy), but the simple/fixed two variable equation you are committed to here is not necessarily accurate anymore. The speech you are waiting to hear becomes moot as the rest of the world trades for oil (and everything else) w/o $USD intermediation. Further, the peak oil dynamic is being mitigated in developed economies... it will be the developing world that will be sqeezed hardest by a dearth of cheap/free energy, IMO.
Tot:
EROEI is essentially a meaningless ratio because not all energy is homogenous nor does all energy have the same economic costs. It's a great ratio to try to scare people (with).
Fixed, non-portable energy like electricity (from the sun- water or solar panels) can be exchanged for portable energy like oil (a relatively convenient liquid). That makes EROEI just another useless bullshit yardstick.
And since 1913 (your random baseline), economies of scale in the oil business have substantially reduced the cost of production.
If you want to use a more useful ratio compare hourly wages in the U.S. in 1913 vs a cost of a barrel of oil in 1913 against hourly wages today and a barrel of oil at $40-50/bbl. 2 or 3 hours of work today will buy you a barrel of oil. In other words for 2 or 3 hours of work you can buy the equivalent of over 2000 horsepower per hour. Oil is cheap now and likely cheaper than 1913.
At the $80-$120 per barrel of oil range there was no more wasteful industry than the oil business. Men were making over $100,000/yr sitting in pickups picking their noses. Cooks in Australia were making $170,000 a year on LNG projects.
Costs are always a function of how much money there is to throw around. And many in the oil industry are learning that lesson now.
Stationary sources of energy are not readily fungible with portable sources. The process of cracking coal into shorter hydrocarbon chains to produce something like diesel or gasoline takes quite a bit of energy, not to mention that it would take a lot of infrastructure that we don't have to swap over to something like that. That means that more coal has to be mined, which means more wear and tear on mining equipment, which means more steel needs to be recycled/mined, etc... When you start talking EROEI, this is important, because low EROEI translates directly to higher costs in reality, whether you want to measure those costs in joules or in dollars or in ounces of AU. Don't look to electric cars to solve this either. We'd have to find much larger sources of the materials used to make batteries than we currently have to convert our fleet of automobiles over to electric, not to mention that we'd need a massive upgrade of the electrical grid to handle the increased loads.
In the case of low EROEI oil, it is lower EROEI because you have to drill more wells, which costs. You have to use more materials, which costs. You have to work harder to get the oil to the surface, which costs. These costs are ultimately in joules, and if you bring the monetary price down below what the costs in joules say things should be, you will break the system. EROEI is not meaningless.
I worked at a statup that converts c02 and sunlight using "bugs" that excrete hydrocarbons... They are going big, but not there yet. When we were there, a russian investor asked what we were doing to "protect" the company from the outside... who knows if it will make it past the current status quo.
& herein lies lies a major disconnect: eroei is purely a function of joules which are not subject to the kinds of manipulations to which currencies are. bringing $ into the discussion is either a red herring or shows a complete lack of any knowledge of physics. the fact that policy debate/decisions are framed in $ vs f=ma will not end well...
This comment is proof positive that the Peak Oil hysteria has nothing to do with facts, it's a religion. Which means when the facts all of a sudden don't fit, making every prediction you have ever made go down the toilet, it's time to spin. And spin like a Jehovah's Witness is exactly what this commenter is doing. Talk about "conventional production" when oil futures just dipped back to their December lows of $42 a barrel on Friday.
In this world when it comes to measuring scarcity, one thing and one thing only matters, and that is price.
Unfortunately, Trav7777777 is not available to rebut ;-)
"No, sir, the dollar is now worth -10 cents. I must pay YOU for eating at my restaurant."
Devaluation is dependent on debt growth. US debt slaves are tapped out and have been since the RE peak(07-08). That leaves the Fed. Gov. to steal from the future. US debt has doubled since '07 to fill the gap.
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt_histo5.htm
But...but...but....this time it is different
"since the dawn of time, an ounce of gold has been worth the price of a tuxedo and a hooker in a leather dress."
I think you mean an ounce of gold has been worth the price of a good suit, which is anywhere between 1K-2.5K. Big difference between a good suit (tailored) and an off-the-rack "italian tuxedo" sewn by slave labor in Thailand/China/Bangladesh.
As far as the metal dropping further, deflation can/will do just that, however, the price of a good suit would drop as well. OTOH, should the Fed et al ever succeed in creating real inflation, you'd better have some PMs to protect buying power.
I've noticed that every time someone tries to float a line like this they ignore productivity gains. An ounce of gold should buy many fine tailored suits today than it has in the past. That said, I don't think a $199 tuxedo is likely to be a fine tailored suit.
Would productivity gains not be applicable to the extraction of PM's as Well?
All productivity gains have been confiscated by banking and political crooks for at least 50 years.
Ya hafta' consider the effects on the environment these days. So the Environmental Pollution Agency is eating into any gains more than the productivity has improved.
Top 10 most expensive suits, which an oz of gold would have bought in the days of sound money. Zegna $22k. Vanquish II $101k. Price of a top brass 25k. Where u coming from blud?
Those examples are about as applicable as a $199 "tuxedo"
Its worth 40k dollars an ounce.
According to a report released by the Federal Reserve last week, the M2 money supply is about $10.5 trillion. The amount of gold held by the United States government is approximately 260 million ounces. Doing the math, that translates to north of $40,000 per ounce.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/toddganos/2013/07/07/is-gold-really-worth-40...
In Philidelphia, it's worth fifty bucks.
On the sidewalk in California it's worthless.
sorry dp
$199 for the tuxedo.
The fuck do you shop? Rent A Suit.
Make certain to wear your Tuxedo during the premiere of Credit Freeze II where every viewing is Audience Participation Night.
It makes the targeting that much easier.
Is your Tuxedo flammable?
(Personally I would not consider a Tux an item of survival gear...I see no use for owning any at all.)
"The American middle class, i.e. the non-supervisory workers, managed to grow their consumption in the midst of stagnating wages through"
Born raised and trained to consume... The greatest amerikan passs time...shopping.
Oh, and becoming dumber.
Finally someone has pointed out that the peak standard of living of the average American was reached the day Nixon ended gold convertability.
I knew an old man who said, about 10 yrs ago, that his standard of living peaked in the 1960's. He never could explain the reason, though. That's the problem. 95%+ can't explain what's being done to them.
99% don't know what IS being done to them
Something happened in 1971. lol
About your avatar : the Troy Ounce was born in Troyes, France in around 1130, when the Crusades were the rage and the Knights Templar the first TBTF banking combine that was ever created in the West. The Knights Templar were the first CIA Cum bankster combine of the West; all for God wills it, alike GWB's disastrous Crusade; even before Venice's rise as monetary hub and Constantinople's debasement by Crusaders in 1204. They were "ethnic cleansers" of Kingdom of Heaven and bankers trust! All lost in 1291...ominous date.
Something happened in 1130 and then in 1291 !
Best to live in the USA......The rest of the world is gonna suck a wet one
But you have the "hope" guy.
Everyone is going to suck a wet one, even those in the US. Just that the US is less likely to be invaded by some starving neighbor, that's called being the tallest midget.
The starving neighbors will come from the Fed. Gov. created inner city slums. Oh wait, it's already started.
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2015/07/07/police-investigating-baltimore-...
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-county/owings-mills/...
blackthugsmatter
The starving neighbors will come from the Fed. Gov. created inner city slums. Oh wait, it's already started.
http://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2015/07/07/police-investigating-baltimore-...
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/baltimore-county/owings-mills/...
blackthugsmatter
Stroke,
That's my belief, the USA the last one standing and the rest of the world it's slave.
Btw nice avatar
Ya know, half a dozen years ago I would have given that a ^.
Today I'm fearful of any cop, fearful about incessant tax/fee increases and last year I had to pay an Obamacare penalty. (Note: I was unemployed for most of the year and since NH did not have Medicaid I was not eligible for Obamacare, but I was eligible and did pay the penalty for two.
Today if you have $2200 in cash in your pocket going to the airport to spend a month or so in Asia, you risk civil forfeiture.
This is no longer the America that once made me so proud and there are Asian countries that lately seem a better place to spend the last of my years, and which will fare well even if China and America goes STF.
I'm prepared.
I have Zip Codes, thanks to ZH.
Santa Ana winds combined with lots of old growth fuel, and especially when combined with the drought conditions, may give the Rancho Santa Fe area a very hot time in the near future.
This is just a forecast...It is Fire Season after all...
(The Zip Codes conveniently forgot about that area.)
The best part about it...I do not have to do anything...at all. Karma is a bitch.
" We have made a job quality index to depict just this."
Product quality and work pride follows the chart as well. Products made in usa barley above the quality of imports from Asia proper. Even the Japanese stuff has reduced the quality of their products.
Quality today is the enemy of efficiency. Pride in work is nonexistent. Cut here, skimp there, the new 21st century model.
I still have items made in the early part of the 20th century, still in working order. Most things purchased after 1990 have been thrown away,,, especially the electronics. Pretty much all junk.
Planned obsolescence feeds the Keynesian model in which an ever greater amount of currency must be deployed in an attempt to maintain the staus quo. When the monetary system operates on the principle of high time preference then productive output must also be adapted to the high time preference model resulting in shoddily made goods with a short life expectancy.
edit : until a "monetary" model...And, "planned obsolescence" is a concept born when the MIC took over the world in the perpetual "arms bazar" race; aka after the demise of Keynes in 1946.
Have mercy for facts and time lines.
Half of the MTBF engineers on the planet are doing evil...
YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!!!
;-D
GE's Six Sigma religion is meant to get the appliances to the warranty date -0 months, + 3 months. GE folk will NEVER buy GE appliances for this reason.
Just another evil crowd.
.And, "planned obsolescence" is a concept born when the MIC took over the world in the perpetual "arms bazar" race; aka after the demise of Keynes in 1946.
Have mercy for facts and time lines.
It is not necessary for planned obsolescence to have predated Keynes in order for it to feed Keynesianism any more than it was necessary for Paul Krugman to precede Keynes in order for him to feed Keynesianism. Keynesianism expanded in the years long after Keynes death such as with Nixon's pronouncement that "We are all Keynesians now" when he closed the gold window in 1971.
However, it was in the 1920s that GM began producing a new model car each year unlike Ford which produced the same model year after year. The hope was that new models would spur consumption by those who saw value in the newer models or who simply wanted to appear to be trendy.
Aldous Huxley describes an economy dependent on the planned obsolescence of consumer goods in his novel Brave New World which was published in 1932.
The debt slaves must spin their treadmill faster and faster to keep from flying of. Go debt slaves, go!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ZKzGqquDNA
Building a computer that will last 40 years makes no sense if it will be obsolete in 3 years and worthless (other than as scrap) in 5 years.
I am thinking about starting a solid door making business.. interior doors in the US have gone to shit in the last 40 years ... my house still has some solid door but most are them hollow core POS ones ... HD and Lowe's only sell the hollow core and veneer engineered (veneer over some kind of compressed paper ) ...
If Trump is President, I'lll start such a business and I'll kick China's Ass.
You had me until you started looking for hope and change from a politician.
I agree with Billy. Good idea, but do it for yourself and your family. American manufacturing wasn't built on any "politician hope" in the past. It was built by need....and right now we really NEED it.
Menards sells oak finish over MDMF and they are very solid and look really good and are heavy.
Abit,
Just don't let it get wet.
hehe....and btw, don't breath the formaldehyde the md particle board emits
If and only if monkeys fly out of your ass, Trump will be prez.
Rogue Valley Doors. You can order direct or via some bigbox stores.
Big box stores don't keep RVD in inventory because the american public ALWAYS chooses the cheaper product, quality be damned. Retail is now wholesale - if the product doesn't fly off the shelves then it gets dropped.
My grandmother's farmhouse had a 3" thick solid wood front door. it was 4' wide, and 7' tall. I have never seen another like it.
Probably in a good frame too. The problem with getting a good door today is that it is pointless unless you built the house yourself 50 years ago or from illegal materials, or are willing to redo the whole frame. Most doors are now just set into a trim.
In an emergency there are other ways to reinforce the door as well. The quickest would be two 2x4s, one nailed into the floor and the other set directly into the door to act as a bar. This is also the strongest part of any reinforcement.
I don't recall the frame, but it was a stone house, and the upstairs window sills were wide enough to lay down, or curl up on.
My front entry custom fabricated from mahogany, 4' wide, 8' high with custom stained sidelights, elipitical stained glass head with 3 point hardware. All other doors in home Hurd three point as well as windows with films specified for heat reflection/ capture depending on seasonal exposures. built my house myself, only way to insure quality and longevity. In it for 22 years now with no problems to date. Super energy efficient before it was in fashion/mandated. Spray foam insulated in 2x6 framing.
Took longer than I want to admit to build but quality typically equates to time. One operation at a time in the proper order. I could go forever but won't.
Good idea. But I work in an industry selling a product every car needs. People are astounded at the cost of a quality piece. I hear all day " I can get that at another vendor for half the price" and while that is true, you get what you pay for. You get no warranties and a cut rate crappy product that doesnt meet original manufacturer's specifications. Line them up side by side and the product I sell is much thicker and safer. The crappy product is made in China and their labor cost is fifty cents a day. Everyone in the USA is broke except for the 1%. We get tons of bad checks and declined credit cards.
I applaud your initiate but be aware that America wants quality products at Walmart pricing. It's a conundrum.
Corporatewhore: America wants quality products at Walmart pricing. It's a conundrum.
Bullshit.
I hate buying fucking crap chinese garbage. i go out of my way to pay for quality.
I guess you didn't get the memo so that's why you're a corporate whore.
A conundrum that solves itself when all credit cards get declined. They are living beyond their means, like the chart implies. I still remember when businesses demanded cash only.
It astounds me everyday how many adults(chronologically) still think there is a free lunch out there
If I tell you "I can get that at another vendor for half the price," I'm talking about getting the same thing, not an inferior product. But then again, I'm probably at a gun show if I'm telling somebody that, not shopping for a door. (I've seen used stuff at gun shows going for more than I would have to pay for the exact same thing brand new, down to the brand name and model number.)
And yes, true quality in construction materials means boku bucks need to be spent, or you need to have a good nose for antique stuff that you can refinish. When I'm looking for tools, construction materials, etc... I always first look at what they will be used for and how much they will be used. For a tool that I might use 3 or 4 times, and precision may not be necessary, yeah, I'll go to horrible freight. Something like a cordless drill that I use the piss out of, I'll drop the $$ for a good one. It's all about understanding that there is a difference in quality, then looking for the best bang for my buck that I can get.
$99 for a 2 hp 8gal compressor at harbor freight right now. the one I have been using for 8 years,(same model) still works fine. paid $119 for it originally. bought the new one for backup. I know I'll use it later. my porter cable drill and impact driver were made in china. so much for buying american.
My old Quincy one-lunger was made in the 30's, and runs like a top. It's on it's second motor, but that was the previous owner's fault.
I need 14 interior doors in my 1970's tri-level. the doors & hinges look awful! they are those dark oak colored things, & i need all new closet doors & trim. sign me up as a customer for your new door business....... get this, i had an estimate from LOWES for 14 new interior doors including 2 closet doors to all be replaced ...... $9,000! $9,000 for those crappy doors that had to be painted.
You should come to the UK or Europe. Still craftsmen here. Lots of marble , teak and tile in my home.
In the UK there are fantastic homes built in 1500's totally renovated with underfloor heating and flagstones floors.
Walls 2 feet thick. Stone. Built to stand another 1000 years.
Way back when I lived in UK I lived in a house built in 1830 - had to put a cable through the wall one time.
Hard work through 2ft of stone!
Ha! I own a house in rural NH. It was made in 1850. Frankly it's a piece of substandard shit. (I have upgraded much of it).
This was not the case for houses built prior to 1840, nor after 1870.
Why?
Prior to 1850 NH had plenty of forests. They were largely depleted (ones that could be accessed easily) by mid 1840's and lumber became rare. So houses built from 1840'ish to 1870 often had poor quality wood.
After 1870 a few things happened. Small scale rail was put through the White Mountains and the North Country resulting in a flood of new lumber and later railroads made Westen lumber available.
Life is simply cycles and we do the best we can.
Recognize the cycle--see where you fit in, and the world is yours.
Jason T
I assume you are talking about interior doors. A solid core would require a better door Jamb also or it would just pull the hinges out of the jamb.
Years ago there was a company in Vancouver, Washington that made 3' by 7' Doug Fir plywood for solid core doors. We used to by them by the truckload until the honey-comb cardboard, imported formaldehyde veneer style door came into vogue.
K
An economy based on manufacturing and industry creates goods. An economy based on people serving and scratching each others' asses creates poverty.
True, but only in the past.
Encroachment of robotic technologies simply enriches fewer and fewer humans along the way.
Remember, a robot needs no Obamacare, never gets Workers' Comp, and never even asks for bereavement leave.
As the decades march on we'll have more and more goods and fewer and less quality jobs for most (not all).
In early 70's I took a job driving a truck to work my way thru school. Job paid about $16K yr. I bought a house for $35K and could get a car for $4K. Fast forward, that house costs 230K today, that car $25K. Both costs are up by a factor of 6x. Do truck drivers make $100K?
Never mind working your way thru school. Destruction of middle class
Comrade, there is no easy way to reach Full Soviet!
Forward!
Russian doors are very thick, especially in Hotel Ukraine, but not many people have doors.
1970-1975...Iowa State U...Aimless IA...drove a truck for North American over the summers...made $5-6k/summer...tuition was maybe $250/quarter...rent $50/month...I had enough $$$ to live well!
Then there's the lower quality of replacements today. Aside from fuel injection, the cars are a hollow image. Houses are not even brick veneer anymore. Next stop, mopeds and tents.
Actually, a lot of vehicles are getting heavier today due to all of the safety and emissions requirements. A brand new Jeep Wrangler (not the Unlimited,) weighs something like 600lbs-800lbs more than one from 20 years ago. I was out four wheeling a couple of years ago in my '92 XJ and I was able to climb a big sandy hill that a newer (JK) Unlimited Rubicon could not climb because of the weight. His bigger tires and lower gears couldn't overcome that extra 1000lbs.
That Nixon guy was a smart and honest guy. Good thing the switch From Gold is only temporary.
/S.
Let the chips fall where they may and.... pass the salsa por favor!
If we are lucky. Otherwise, maybe world war.
Did you sleep through the last 20 years? Weimerica is their objective. Think Hitlary escaping to Paraguay.
"we showed how the US labour market changed dramatically from the 1970s on back of excess money printing which allowed Americans to buy tradable goods on the international market, hollowing out its own manufacturing base, and essentially creating an unsustainable consumer driven economy where the broad masses get their employment within service sector."
YES! This is absolute truth. And it WAS the USA's ability to print dollar in excess and have them accepted by foreign producers that allowed this to happen. No other nation could do that. We did, it was a massive free ride, paid for by all other nations. Dollars were printed at zero cost, and used to buy energy and consumer goods in a flood of imports. None of which were paid for with real hard earned surpluses, like other nations must.
Take Iran, they must earn dollar by trade to afford to buy any import. Russia the same. See the difference?
Take Iran, they must earn dollar by trade to afford to buy any import.
Well, that's the plan, anyway. It turns out they were doing quite well, too well in fact, trading for gold and other goods.
http://www.thenational.ae/business/economy/russia-and-iran-consider-oil-...
http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/iran-still-keen-barter-oil-russian...
Just google 'Iran barters'. Then, you know why Kerry's kissing ass. They've been subverting the petro-dollar shakedown, quite nicely, for several years.
>As Americans start to save more,
Say what?
>invest it domestically
Say what?
>and rebuild their manufacturing base
LOL
Dude, it ain't a fucking "reset", OK?
It's a fucking crash.
It's total repudiation of the shitbaggery that has been going on since AT LEAST 1913.
How many fucking ass-hole Democrats voted to ship manufacturing offshore in the last 30+ years? How many Asshole Republicans have done the same? So who the fuck is looking out for YOU?
NO ONE.
GROW UP.
Grab a handful of your balls and look at the shitstem.
Who fucking "financialized" the shitstem? Why could I buy a car in 1972 for $4000? Why are the latest shitboxes for sale at $16K now?
College?
I worked myself through college in the early 1990's, yea, so big fucking deal it took me 6 years to get a 4 year degree in M.E......but I did it working and paying for it. No "loans".
WTF happened?
Why has the same college classes quintupled in costs?
Who fucking produces?
Who makes money off the fucking skim. Too many fucksticks not pulling their own weight and making money (zero's and ones) off the backs of others.
That's all you need to know.
Over and out.
It's pretty much all down to fiat. As long as fiat is what we are all FORCED to use, very little else will change for the better.
Look back through history at the disasters created by fiat.
All wars are bankers' wars. Trouble is they send others to do the fighting/dying.
In 1980 I bought a used 1966 Chevy II Super Sport 327ci. 375Hp with a six pack of carbs (3 separate 2 barrels). In the glovebox I found the original Sales Contract.
The car sold Brand new off the lot for $2200 and the guy had traded in a 2 year old Monza and they gave him $900 trade in allowance and he finaced the $1300 balance for 3 years. Kinda pissed me off when I read it, so bad I can still remember the numbers. I had just given the guy $3800 for it 14 years later with 70k miles
I sold the car 2 years later to the first guy that came to look for $4800 only because My wife was pregnant with our first child and needed hospital money.(yes that was enough to have a kid in 1982)
I still kick myself in the ass, that car would break the tires loose at 60mph with 98 octane and if you stomped it to the floor from there your rear end was fixing to pass you. Today that car is worth anywhere from 25-75 thousand dollars for rags, and up to 150K for original minty, matching number, low mile ones depending on condition and options. And thats the last time I checked several years ago when I was thinking of finding another. Never gonna happen..
Most people today don't even know what a REAL car, REAL gasoline or REAl money is.
https://www.pinterest.com/pin/100205160430469940/ note the twin checkered flags at the bottom of the fender, gone forever.
Who makes money off the fucking skim. ?
Criminals- goverments (and their employees) and scum-sucking bankers.
They have sown the wind.
How about a chart showing
Productivity, Compensation, Consumption.
executive compensation has gone hyperbolic so actually the charts average out. yes, they really are THAT MUCH DAMN BETTER THAN EVERYONE ELSE. those motherfuckers are prolific, everyone else sucks ass.
I just read this disgusting article yesterday.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/business/article31055469.html
$4.2 million in 2014(will be higher this yr. thanks to IPO) while, thanks to O'Care, the employees can't get more than 29 hrs/week, $11K/yr at minimum wage. 382 X's higher.
But, but...but......DaveO, we can't let employees work too many hours, for they'll not be able to hold a second job. And if millions were to lose their second jobs, unemployment numbers would fall. (2 part-time jobs = 2 jobs for gov't stats).
Which makes me wonder: Just how much did the ancient Romans understand about what was happening which caused the deterioration of their empire, and did they have a solution that nobody had the will to implement? Quite obviously, as history repeats, we get a clearer and clearer understanding regarding the basic outline of how monetary systems and societal systems fail. Added complexity to try and effect fixes might buy time but also guarantees the final result. There are basic truths about money: for anything to be accepted to have value, there must be balance on the other side. So here we go again, it would seem. No lessons learned. And I would say that in the US, the system could have been saved if they started working on it around 1982. Way too late now. It's just a major rigged Ponzi, waiting for the appropriate trigger to collapse it.
It's the exploitation of the ignorance gap by the sociopaths, so-called leaders. They've intentionally dumbed-down the population, since the 60's, to keep the ponzi scheme going. My granddad, who was raised in the Depression and quit school in the 6th grade to work, understood more about currency debasement than your average college-educated debt slave today. We've become another warfare/welfare society just like Rome. Even supported by our own slave class(income tax payers). Unlike Rome, our slaves can read and write while comprehending almost nothing!
In systems where people can vote, once the people figure out that they can vote themselves benefits from the state coffers, it gets very easy for the worst kind of politicians to get elected. They promise the plebs free shit, actually give some of it (EBT, etc...) then bleed the system dry for themselves and their cronies.
silverer: One of the reasons for the decline and fall of Rome was systemic lead poisoning. Today, there are similar effects, from multiple causes. It is not merely brainwashing, there is also serious, irreversible within one lifetime, organic brain damage, which is quite wide-spread, and automatically getting worse, faster, due to the ways that the vicious spirals of the funding of politics continues to privatize the profits, while socializing the losses, so that nothing gets done about what is causing that to happen.
That is another of the overall reasons for how and why any kind of idealized set of bogus "solutions" to our problems by going backwards are actually non-starters. Any attempts to engage in an "economic reset" takes place within contexts wherein the degrees of social polarization appear to have become irreconcilable, while the practically irreparable destruction of the natural world trumps that.
While the article above was relatively correct in its presentation of the how the American economy derailed, it grossly understates how that happened "through a Faustian bargain." Control over the American economy was captured by the international banksters, through the application of the methods of organized crime to the political processes. The superficial view of the economic problems presented in that article above neither admits and addresses that, nor, therefore, does such a presentation consider the deeper reasons for how and why that happened. Hence, in my view, the article above is grossly deficient.
As the saying goes, the fish has rotted from the head to the tail, in the sense that the highest levels of government became corrupted first, which then cascaded in fractal patterns down throughout the lower levels. Furthermore, as I suggested above, that thoroughly fractal pattern of rot has been carved into the flesh of people, and is still doing so, automatically getting worse, faster, every day.
"Excesses must be liquidated at some point ..."
While that may true enough, what those "excesses" actually are have become orders of magnitude greater than the article above appears to be aware of. Thus, too, the "liquidations" would have to also be orders of magnitude greater. An article like the one above does not recognize the degree to which money is measurement backed by murder, because the debt controls were backed by the death controls. Therefore, it does not recognize the degree to which the runaway debt insanities could provoke corresponding death insanities, (which are already in the works, including in the sense that they are already carved into the flesh.)
The article above tends to operate through presuming that the economy is based upon "production." However, the economy is actually based upon robbery (with frauds being symbolic robberies). Therefore, realistic resolutions of those real problems require changing the relative rates of social robberies, inside of the overall context of environmental robberies. The essential problems that we face are not only that governments are the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, but also, that they must necessarily be. The article above presents the problems in superficial ways, which, therefore, can promote superficial "solutions." Meanwhile, more than a Century of triumphantly ENFORCED FRAUDS have thoroughly permeated down through the social strata, into the so-called "free shit army."
Generation after generation, after generation, of the social triumphs of political economy based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS tends to not be more deeply analyzed by an article like the one above, which then results in such an article not having to promote any deeper resolutions to that social situation based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS. Moreover, that fits inside of the deeper reasons for how and why prolonged social successfulness based upon ENFORCED FRAUDS has resulted in making a mockery out of the basic laws of nature.
From the top to the bottom, the entire social system became based upon the presumptions of some "free lunch." The entire language of economics became more and more dominated by bullshit that deliberately ignored and misunderstood the basic laws of nature, in the most absurdly backward ways possible. Therefore, the article above presents is bogus "solutions" inside of the same old-fashioned frame of reference regarding "production."
Since the actually existing political economy has become almost totally dominated by ENFORCED FRAUDS, from the top to the bottom, while that was only possible to be maintained as socially successful through the vast majority of people thinking using a language that operates through a Wonderland Matrix Bizarro World perspective of the basic laws of nature (which the article above continues to mostly still take for granted), that kind of article presents a grossly superficial view of what it could fully mean when it stated: "Excesses must be liquidated at some point ..."
"Excesses must be liquidated at some point ..." This includes people.
A 75% reduction/"iquidation" (by any means necessary) in global population will be required for a "reset."
"The only way to increase living standards from here will be the old fashioned way; consume less than you produce and productively invest the surplus."
Erm, yeah. Care to explain how to do that? In the article he's saying building factories within the US, but anything newly built is going to be far more automated in the past, so the employment offered will be minimal.
When there is a genuine reset, everything is going to be reset. I think the biggest among them will be living standards, and they won't be increasing. Maybe after the reset they will, but that's like talking about how employment has recovered since 2008 -- yeah, it's up from the low, but it's still way the fuck down from before the crash.
Yeah, invest it in robotics.
In 20 years there will be little else. Very few employees will be needed for manufacturing.
It's interesting, the productivity chart will soon increase slope, productivity per employee will rocket to the moon.
Yet the only jobs will be service sector.
I'd enjoy hearing examples of "productively invest the surplus" please.
The old antiquated banksters dream of running the world through money is starting to fail. Not because of the money, we need money. Its the only fair way to exchange products and ideas.
But its because of their lust, greed and corruption that the financial system is failing.
And I don't understnd why. Don't they know we're all on a dead end road here? Havent they figured out that everyone leaves here the same way. In a box.
It aint like everyone is going to die around you and you're going to live forever aboard your yacht. WTF.
Only thing I can figure is that they are all mentally ill in some "Gotta get as much money as I can, as fast as I can, anyway that I can" kind of way.
As if anything besides a full belly, a dry head, and warm bed fu&%ing matters.
It aint like everyone is going to die around you and you're going to live forever aboard your yacht. WTF.
See WW2.
I grew up as a machinist and worked at JPL and Lockheed. I made a pretty good living enough to purchase a home. There was nothing wrong with that. Nothing at all.
The operable word there q99 is: "was"
Yes, there was nothing wrong with that. I was a tool/die maker and also purchased a home that I still have.
Now for the opposite of "was" which is "is" or perhaps "will be"
Where I work we just expanded, tens of millions of $, but few workers will be required, as essentially all the money went for robotics.
The factory of the future will be run by one man and one dog. The man's job is to feed the dog. The dog's job will be to bite the man if he touches anything in the factory.
Strange world that will be.