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Bull Market? Half The S&P 500 Are In The "Death Zone"
This week saw The Dow encounter its first "death cross" - when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average - in 4 years. The indicator, often used to signal trend changes (down in this case) has yet to be witnessed in the S&P 500 though, but has been a useful signal at major market turning points in the past (e.g. late 60’s, early 70’s, the dot.com crash and recently the GFC). However, while breadth in this 'market' remains weak by any measure, we note that a stunning 50% of the S&P 500 components are now in the 'death zone'.
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Death crosses, One in a million billion trillion hiccups, Alarming indicators, never seen divergences, stopped counting the Hindenburg omens too. Still nothing ever happens. Its global central bank controlled market and havent lost control yet and wont in neartime. Steady inflation to negate the deflation 'beautiful deleveraging' as Ray Dalio put it(yes I read it on ZH too) and its working! Will be the same market, this cant lose steam for atleast another decade. Sorry to disappoint but there not going to be another 2001 or 2008 anytime soon. Get out of rental ZH readers and buy as much RE as possible lever up (get the fukk out of those saving accounts if you still havent lost it all shorting atleast now) get as many loans / credit as possible. Be prudent go with flow, its evident whats working n what cant
I didn't know they were putting koolaid in brawndo now.
What about the % sectors with 50 dma < 200 dma excluding energy and tobacco?
"I didn't know they were putting koolaid in brawndo now."
Judge was a visionary.
Not a chance because of natural self preservation. Your theory works in a vacuum, but when you have sovereign interests looking for self preservation there's no way to keep everybody on the same colluding team. Just look at China's triple devaluation this week. No, the players know that this is truly a game of musical chairs and when the music starts slowing it's going to be every man for himself.
When enough of us are suffering from crash-fatigue the actual crash will happen. That would mean that nobody saw this coming! ...or something like that. Has anyone entertained the thought that we are being subjected to a plethora of crash inducing data so that we'll all walk away from the gloom/doom scenarios, get back in the game, and get bit in the butt.... again. I, for one, am done with the headline articles that tell me something I already knew. I've had enough confirmation bias for one lifetime. BTW: what does the squiggly blue line show that wasn't even more ominous just a few years ago, and a few years before that? What disastrous market event happened in those recent years past? Answer: Not much.
The underlying problem is not statistical "hiccups" and death crosses. The basic problems are manipulated markets, managed outcomes, fudged data (both governmental and private business), and politically distorted optics. No graph will be accurate with that foundation of fraud.
Well said Rocky.
God damn it. I had eye surgery 72 hours ago and your little avatar completely fucked up my head for about two seconds. Haha
Wow! A card-carrying menber og the PINKO FASCIST COMMIES! Good luck to you, raki_d, 'cause when TSHTF, punks like you will surely have a bullseye on their backs! I'm guessing you're a 'status quo' wonk. Too bad you'll not get to see the rosey forecasts you project.
Really? I have been sitting on the edge of my seat for f'ing AGES! Japan should have blown up moons ago. Begining to think fraud and CB's buying everything is the cure which will make us all rich (not)
And the other half are AAPL and GOOG.
Save me Jesus: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74Obm6bEH80
Based on this graph, it looks like these sector death crosses also occurred in '04,'05,'06, and a handful of other years when there wasn't a crash. So I'm not sure how useful this post is.
I checked your suspicion on Stockcharts and you are correct. This cross did happen in both directions in 2004 and '05, but not in '06.
At that time, the market was just meandering to the east in both '04 and '05. So of course sideways action always makes moving averages seek 'flat' so their usefulness diminishes basically to zero. Where moving averages are most useful is at extremes, which is exactly where we are now. So I'd say that 'yes', this post is definitely useful.
That being said, what all traders should be absolutely outraged about is that in recent years, all indicators such as this death cross and the Hindenberg Omen signals have all been rendered useless by a Fed that will goose the biggest stocks in an epic effort to avoid letting the market crash. In other words they are completely fucking up the value of technical analysis, an otherwise very valuable tool. Call TA an 'art' or a 'science', whatever, it is an extremely valuable discipline in a truly 'free' market, but not in a manipulated one.
So from that perspective... this death cross might amount to nothing whatsoever. If so, that would 100% be due to Fed meddling.
If you are interested, I explained in detail why the Hindenberg 'seems' to be issuing false signals, in a comment I posted to this article on ZH. Hopefully you will find it useful in understanding why TA isn't working properly these days. But it will definitely work much better at the bottom and then on the way up again, and probably for several years into the recovery. It will also detect false bottoms during the crash. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-09/when-hindenburg-omens-are-omino...
interest rates are 0 what else do you need to say.
I see green shoots everywhere. This is *cough cough* some really good shit!
BUT this time is DIFFERENT because the volumes are low as ZH has noted several times, therefore these indicators can be held up longer than what one would normally expect as we have already witnessed.
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China is obviously in the crosshairs of the NSA and Al-CIAda mercenaries. Are we not in the phase "wars and rumors of wars" or "nation will rise against nation"? I tell you we are right on that old out-dated books timeline for unfolding events and much is yet to come and it is not pretty; in fact it is very ugly. Jesus has a ministry of reconciliation; why anyone would not desire to be reconciled to their Creator is beyond comprehension of not for the fact that He also told us why that is. Because men love darkness because there deeds, what they think, say and do, are evil and that continually.
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BTW - that does NOT mean people do not do good things, they do, but it does mean we all miss the standard by which we will be judged. When God the Father punished Jesus; it was Jesus taking on the punishment for the sins for all who would ever believe and trust Him and in return when the Father sees the "believer" or the "Christian" he sees Christ righteousness; is is known as substitutionary atonement.
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I understand that most people look upon this as "foolishness", but again that too is written. There is not much concerning the circumstances and problems we face in this life that the Scripture (God's word) does not address for our edification and admonishment and understanding...for our good and comfort. Being a Christian does not mean one never sin; we all do because we have an inherited nature that is bent toward sin. The difference is we have been forgiven and now have an internal desire to do what is right in His sight. That is why it is a fallacy to believe one can claim salvation and keep on sinning willfully; that too is addressed in His word. It is not the perfection of our life; it is the direction of our life. God bless all of you; isn't forgiveness and love what the world and each of us need; it is what Christ freely gives to whosoever will.
Shit, my neighbor with a brand new F-250, and a 2014 C7 is all in..he says nothing will happen this sep-oct, its all bullshit.
my neighbor with a crack pipe n a hussein phone says the same thing!
Your neighbor is right; if he can afford an F-250..he is among the wealthy. It is the middle-lower middle class that feels the most pain.
If someone truly believes that September is the month to remember, then they should be buying with credit cards in both hands. Debt jubilees work best for those people with debts and least well for those who are holding promissory notes.
On the other hand, such a surge in retail spending could well avert the need for the crash and then they would be stuck eating vienna sausages for breakfast, lunch, and dinner for the next three years as a reward for their helpfulness.
Don´t get me wrong, I am uberbearish at the moment, yet i don´t know where to short. That" correlation" doesn´t correlate. So what´s the point?
Well, let's hope no one notices how 'quiet' the Sun is lately, that should help, right?