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Travails Of Empire - Oil, Debt, Gold & The Imperial Dollar
"We are imperial, and we are in decline... People are losing confidence in the Empire."
This is the key theme of Larry Wilkerson's presentation. He never really questions whether empire is good or bad, sustainable or not, and at what costs. At least he does not so in the same manner as that great analyst of empire Chalmers Johnson.
It is important to understand what people who are in and near positions of power are thinking if you wish to understand what they are doing, and what they are likely to do. What ought to be done is another matter.
Wilkerson is a Republican establishment insider who has served for many years in the military and the State Department. Here he is giving about a 40 minute presentation to the Centre For International Governance in Canada in 2014.
I find his point of view of things interesting and revealing, even on those points where I may not agree with his perspective. There also seem to be some internal inconsistencies in this thinking.
But what makes his perspective important is that it represents a mainstream view of many professional politicians and 'the Establishment' in America. Not the hard right of the Republican party, but much of what constitutes the recurring political establishment of the US.
As I have discussed here before, I do not particularly care so much if a trading indicator has a fundamental basis in reality, as long as enough people believe in and act on it. Then it is worth watching as self-fulfilling prophecy. And the same can be said of political and economic memes.
At minute 48:00 Wilkerson gives a response to a question about the growing US debt and of the role of the petrodollar in the Empire, and the efforts by others to 'undermine it' by replacing it. This is his 'greatest fear.'
He speaks about 'a principal advisor to the CIA Futures project' and the National Intelligence Council (NIC), whose views and veracity of claims are being examined closely by sophisticated assets. He believes that both Beijing and Moscow are complicit in an attempt to weaken the dollar.
This includes the observation that "gold is being moved in sort of unique ways, concentrated in secret in unique ways, and capitals are slowly but surely divesting themselves of US Treasuries. So what you are seeing right now in the supposed strengthening of the dollar is a false impression."
The BRICS want to use oil to "force the US to lose its incredibly powerful role in owning the world's transactional reserve currency." It gives the US a great deal of power of empire that it would not ordinarily have, since the ability to add debt without consequence enables the expenditures to sustain it.
Later, after listening to this again, the thought crossed my mind that this advisor might be a double agent using the paranoia of the military to achieve the ends of another. Not for the BRICS, but for the Banks. The greatest beneficiary of a strong dollar, which is a terrible burden to the real economy, is the financial sector. This is why most countries seek to weaken or devalue their currencies to improve their domestic economies as a primary objective. This is not so far-fetched as military efforts to provoke 'regime change' have too often been undertaken to support powerful commercial interests.
Here is just that particular excerpt of the Q&A and the question of increasing US debt.
I am not sure how much the policy makers and strategists agree with this theory about gold. But there is no doubt in my mind that they believe and are acting on the theory that oil, and the dollar control of oil, the so-called petrodollar, is the key to maintaining the empire.
Wilkerson reminds me very much of a political theoretician who I knew at Georgetown University. He talks about strategic necessities, the many occasions in which the US has used its imperial power covertly to overthrow or attempt to overthrow governments in Iran, Venezuela, Syria, and the Ukraine. He tends to ascribe all these actions to selflessness, and American service to the world in maintaining a balance of power where 'all we ask is a plot of ground to bury our dead.'
A typical observation is that the US did indeed overthrow the democratically elected government of Mossadegh in 1953 in Iran. But 'the British needed the money' from the Anglo-Iranian oil company in order to rebuild after WW II. Truman had rejected the notion, but Eisenhower the military veteran and Republic agreed to it. Wilkerson says specifically that Ike was 'the last expert' to hold the office of the Presidency.
This is what is meant by realpolitik. It is all about organizing the world under a 'balance of power' that is favorable to the Empire and the corporations that have sprung up around it.
As someone with a long background and interest in strategy I am not completely unsympathetic to these lines of thinking. But like most broadly developed human beings and students of history and philosophy one can see that the allure of such thinking, without recourse to questions of restraint and morality and the fig leaf of exceptionalist thinking, is a terrible trap, a Faustian bargain. It is the rationalization of every nascent tyranny. It is the precursor to the will to pure power for its own sake.
The challenges of empire now according to Wilkerson are:
1) Disequilibrium of wealth - 1/1000th of the US owns 50% of its total wealth. The current economic system implies long term stagnation (I would say stagflation. The situation in the US is 1929, and in France, 1789. All the gains are going to the top.
2) BRIC nations are rising and the Empire is in decline, largely because of US strategic miscalculations. The US is therefor pressing harder towards war in its desperation and desire to maintain the status quo. And it is dragging a lot of good and honest people into it with our NATO allies who are dependent on the US for their defense.
3) There is a strong push towards regional government in the US that may intensify as global warming and economic developments present new challenges to specific areas. For example, the water has left the Southwest, and it will not be coming back anytime soon.
This presentation ends about minute 40, and then it is open to questions which is also very interesting.
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to understand the American empire one must first understand the british empire..............thieving bastards, all of them.......RUN BY THE TRIBE
RAPE PILLAGE AND PLUNDER........
http://worldsworstmassmurderer.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/britain-worlds-wo...
“Policy makers” are following the Roman model almost to a T.
Whether it is intentional by the “tribe” or unintentional by the idiots remains to be seen.
Jesse writes a great blog, I don't know how he does it, no ads, no "Donate Button". Consistently fine work.
He has ads, all those posters from the 1920s and 30s. Not revenue-generating, but they were ads...
People in power want to maintain their power.
We often see their actions as irrational, but most of what they do is rational from their perspective since their goal is to maintain their own power.
Buy Gold, Silver, Platinum and Palladium
https://www.eurgold.eu
Wilkerson himself is a banker/MIC tool-as long as he thinks and speaks to what is their asset-stripping ends-whether at home or abroad-he and the interests he represents -remain employed and funded.
THE biggest illusion -and his and his employers' most critical-is that somehow he is "for America"
cool, except there is no global warming.
My thoughts exactly!
None whatsoever. Why don't you swing by the Balkans and see what was once lush forests and farmland turning into southern Greece. Two months of drought, finally got some relief now. Even Germany got quite a bit of what used to be Balkan summer. And this has been going on for years now. An off year in three of these occasianly. Then go to Calgary Alberta with summers of 30+. Still an occasional hail and snow in the summer, but it's getting warm an rainy up there. This winter in Calgary was awsome. From -30s which used to be normal it was +10 on some days. And than for an entire month. I could smoke outside with both my hands out of the pockets for a month instead of the usual juggle routine. And this is not just a freak year, Calgarians do not remember these. Good for them though, they aren't freezing. As far as Canadians are concerned bring on the global warming. It's about 400 years late :D. And than there is Arctic where there is a new run for territory. Would there be a run if the sea was full of ice? If you had to break the ice throughout the year? No you can argue that it is not human made. But we, the humans burn huge amounts of fossils each day. The amount of CO2 release per day is staggering. Every year we send out into atmosphere a block of oil long 5km, wide 1km and 1m high. And then coal and natural gas. Current level of CO2 is 400ppm, used to be 260 in early 20th century. Now CO2 is not the biggest GHG, actuallly it's water vapour, than O2 and N2 just because they consist much of the atmosphere even though their heat absorption rates are miniscule. However we can't do anything aboute these. What we can do is concentrate on a few gases we produce in outstanding quantites as these can change absorption levels of the entire planet.
knock it off about CO2 already, totally cooked statistics does not an environmental catastrophe make. you want to know why the majority of the changes are happening, look at that big bright thing in the sky.
I'm all for reducing actual pollutant, but to jump on that tax rationale bandwagon is just fkn stupid.
Gab Timov
If one wishes to debate the percentage of global warming caused by human activities,
that is one thing.
But to deny that there is any global warming, whatever the cause(s),
... is, to put it plainly, just being wilfully ignorant and obtuse.
Doesn't matter who is losing confidence....Crank up the Presses and tune into Kramer Bitches
It won't go down without defeat from some major wars first.
We lost the War On Women! And no one is "going down" for sure now.
"The normal fuck by a normal man is taken to be an act of invasion and ownership undertaken in a mode of predation.
Women have been chattels to men as wives, as prostitutes, as sexual and reproductive servants. Being owned and being fucked are or have been virtually synonymous experiences in the lives of women. He owns you; he fucks you. The fucking conveys the quality of the ownership: he owns you inside out. The fucking conveys the passion of his dominance: it requires access to every hidden inch. He can own everything around you and everything on you and everything you are capable of doing as a worker or servant or ornament; but getting inside you and owning your insides is possession: deeper, more intimate, than any other kind of ownership. Intimate, raw, total, the experience of sexual possession for women is real and literal.
In the fuck, the man expresses the geography of his dominance: her sex, her insides are part of his domain as a male… Women live inside this reality of being owned and being fucked: are sensate inside it; the body learning to respond to what male dominance offers as touch, as sex, as love. For women, being possessed is the sex that has to meet the need for love or tenderness or physical affection; therefore, it comes to mean, to show, the intensity of desire; and being erotically owned by a man who takes you and fucks you is a physically charged and meaningful affirmation of womanhood or femininity or being desired."
— Andrea Dworkin, Intercourse
You must be refer(r)ing to anal sex
Edit: I couldn't spell :(
What a crock of crap. Women, who are intelligent have always understood the game and used their allure to secure their goals. Women have the power of their touch that triggers men’s most primal passions, a weapon they have used successfully through the ages. Pillow talk is the greatest form of insider trading. I have all sorts of china, crockery, silver tableware, furniture, jewelry, shoes, cloths and cars that I would never have bought on my own. In addition, she is part of every business decision and her name is on everything, the property, the accounts, the trusts. And in the end, guess what? She will outlive me and have it all to do with as she will.
On top of that, women have the power to make us immortal. They can produce life beyond themselves. So if a thousand years from now someone has your smile, a portion of your predilection it is because a woman gave you a child.
Stupid women may be victims. Intelligent women wind up running the show.
ever heard of birth control and abortion, ha lol...
the woman is the ultimate gatekeeper.
Exactly. The first law of fucking. You cannot fuck without being fucked in return.
As if women don't want to reproduce themselves, too, and that's how you get the job done. She must have missed sex-ed.
Dworkin was certifiably insane.
It's rotting from the inside out. No war will be needed so long as the 'elite' continue to follow their present course.
The American Empire died March 10th 2008, and as far as I know, dead empires do not come back to life.
The United States of America is a ZOMBIE EMPIRE. In brief, the walking dead.
i like zombie empire. It has a certain eclat.
2008 United States Obama refutes Clinton as a running mate March 10th, 2008: Barack Obama has implored voters to discount the political chatter about him joining the Hillary Clinton's presidential ticket. 'I don't know how somebody who's in second place can offer the vice-presidency to someone who's in first place,' he said. 'If I'm not ready, how is it that you think I should be such a great vice-president?' In a Mississippi town meeting he said that 'I've won twice as many states as Senator Clinton' and 'I have more delegates than Senator Clinton.'
If China really wanted to weaken the $, all it has to do is dump its enormous Treasury holdings and declare its true holding of official Gold. The problem would be, of course, that this would result a stronger CNY, which China doesn't want. If, however, The US wants a weaker dollar, it could start by ending the manipulation of Gold in the paper markets?
This is the Hobson's choice that China is presenting to the empire. If the Empire wants a cheaper dollar, relative to the RMB, it can stop the gold price suppression. If not, gold will keep rising in RMB terms and the Chinese will continue to buy moar.
Yes, you are absolutely right. I have opined on these boards many times that WHEN China decides the time is right to let the CNY float freely and become fully convertible, it will allow the price of Gold to increase in CNY terms. Then the US has to respond. Either they allow Gold to go higher in the USD paper markets OR via Gold equivalence, the USD gets stronger. Either way, China wins. In the former, its official Gold reserves are worth more, in the latter China's export machine wins if the USD gets stronger. China holds all the cards. Very few people seem to get this scenario, probably because it is a second derivative sort of thing.
Humm. I wonder why GIP Morgan transfered so much gold in Crimex Depositories last month.
Could it be to prevent a default looming for delivery contracts?
We will answer this, said the CFTC, that has nothing to do with it, all we have to do is engineer another illegal manufactured crash or pay the peeps large sums to bribe them not to take delivery.
"If China really wanted to weaken the $, all it has to do is dump its enormous Treasury holdings and declare its true holding of official Gold. "
And why would they do that?
China has many problems of her own and she is busy with that. One of the problems she DOES NOT HAVE is how to do away with US hegemony and the dollar.....America is taking care of that all on its own. China and Russia and India etc...do not have to interfere. The USA will NOT make it to 2020 in its present form. The Chinese and the Russians know that.
Squid
Um, I continued to say "The problem would be, of course, that this would result a stronger CNY, which China doesn't want. If, however, The US wants a weaker dollar, it could start by ending the manipulation of Gold in the paper markets?"
Perhaps you have a short attention span?
I was happy with the Constitutional Republic. Its the Banksters that need the threatenning empire to back up their global resource extraction. Good riddance to the Bankster Empire.
I was happy with the Constitutional Republic.
WTF? How old are you? We have not had one of those since before 1861.
Constitutional Republic? LOL! What a laugh.
Are you from Free Republic web site where they still love The Pentagram and go on and on about the US Military like they are the friends of American citizens? They also love Bibi and there are a lot of Jonathan Pollard "conservatives."
I'm old Freddie, but not that old. Relax, you are preaching but I'm already in the choir. I love what you do Freddie. Maybe I should have said I am happy with the idea of a Constitutional Republic.? Or it would be nice one day to live in an American Constitutional Republic, if one were to magicly appear out of the chaos and ashes of the impending fiancial collapse.
I was the happiest when Andrew Jackson was President. What a Fighter for the working people.
I'm starting to get a little old but I still like the womens.
Oh shit he mentioned global warming. Post stating I stopped reading at............ can start in 3, 2, 1.
Too bad it was at the end of the article.????
Awesome! LaughedMFAO
That was a quote, not a statement of the author.
"We are imperial, and we are in decline... People are losing confidence in the Empire."
Actually, we are a colony, and are in the last throes of being plundered and exploited to the bone.
Don't study Rome, study India and Gandhi.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
I won't march to the sea while being beat by tyranny. I will set up my guillotines at the sea, and at gun point, march tyranny to them.
The "empire" has used up the Americans, and has moved on using up the Asians. As the "drift of gold" was formerly to the U.S., the "drift of gold" is now to Asia. (1889-The Great Red Dragon: Foreign Money Power In The United States.)
Vol. #2 will be named "The Great Red Dragon: Foreign Money Power In Asia." And no, I will not be writing it.
Could be. Will they be as evil and covered in the blood of innocents as the the current NeoConZionists? Maybe they just want to trade and prosper?
Yes, US government elitists and power brokers have pretty much used up and burned out history's most productive and skilled population. Productivity will now continue to decline in the US as the old line innovators retire or just cut back their hours to coast to the end. I had incredible learning experiences working through several types of jobs over the years. I wouldn't have accomplished jack shit the way things are now if I finished college and just spent years bartending or whoring for higher paying jobs which taught me little, which is a lot of what's happening now. All those essential skills we had here are being developed overseas. We have lost a huge population of the manufacturing skills trade. Wealth is created by capital investment, innovation, and producing, not spending and going into debt. Now that the US worker is "used up", the attention of the top elites gets focused elsewhere. By the way US sheeple, I'm sure the bankers and elitists thank you for your contributions over the years. They wouldn't have been so wealthy without you.
This guy and his minions were spouting incessantly during the 70's, 80's and 90's about the USA evolving into a "service based economy". Around '99.00, I quit hearing these guys saying anything about service based economy. To me this was cover for their globalist plans which we are bearing the fruits of today. At that point in time (2000), unless we were willing to wipe out the productive capacity of most the world as we did in WW2, the long term prospects for the Americn worker was bleak indeed and they knew it.
Sink all the EM and developed M back into obliviion especially those countries with any technological advances with competitive advantages over the US
????
Profit!
The U.S. Dollar is backed by which precious metal??????????????????????????????????? I'm still waiting?????????????????
And what is your favorite PSYOPS ponzi flavor of koolaid boys & girls?
WWW.USDEBTCLOCK.ORG
It is bad. Real Bad.
Lead, brass, DU. Some key metals like that.
Lead, steel, brass, DU very true, sad to say. Like a hammer looking for a nail.
When people lose confidence in the Empire, there is only one thing to do:
BRING THE LEGIONS HOME.
They, the legions, must disband before they cross the Rubicon.
Julius did not obey.
Lots of great thinking and I will have to come back to watch the video tomorrow. However, there is a paragraph that I have to comment on:
"As I have discussed here before, I do not particularly care so much if a trading indicator has a fundamental basis in reality, as long as enough people believe in and act on it. Then it is worth watching as self-fulfilling prophecy. And the same can be said of political and economic memes"
I think this paragraph brings up the issue of sustainability. By sustainability I mean the sustainability of systems, whatver they may be, and whatever size they may be, up to and including entire nations. IMO it essntial for any 'system' to be constructed in a way that it is self-correcting. That is the real art in designing something. Creating elegant elements of a system that work in such ways so that corruption of the system becomes impossible. It isn't an easy thing to do. If it was easy, we would already have it deployed and we wouldn't be in the mess we are in. Rules that attempt to restrain the scope of systems, or the vulnerability of systems are fine, but limited and subject to controversy and disagreement, resulting in wasted time and effort and sometimes even severe conflict. So where are the wizards who can define these things and why aren't they in a position of being able to effect their ideas?
The only other thing I have to say is that I don't buy a lot of the right-wing fear that there is always some 'enemy' out there who is trying to run you over. People and societies act and react to events, and yes to be sure there are a lot of people, on both the left and right whose ideas are fundametally destructive and dangerous. They are always going to be around. At least they have been in the entire recorded history of mankind, so I have no reason to believe they are going away anytime soon. But to focus all your energy, and resources, on preparing for the bogey man, means that you are automatically creating the conditions for the bogey man to appear. It just makes no sense. The most successful leaders in history were not neceasrily the ones who had the most access to the best weaponry, or the most bodies to use those weapons, but more often than not they were the ones who were the very best at inspiring. Responding to a foe with the same vitriol, rage, threats and force that they may be threatening you with is self defeating. After all, isn't there a piece in the bible that does 'Thou preparest a table before me in the prescence of my enemies'. What I was taught was that meant that your shared what you could, when you could, realistically, with those that are in need. To me that is the 'Christian way'.
"Responding to a foe with the same vitriol, rage, threats and force that they may be threatening you with is self defeating."
I won't disagree with that statement. However, I AM the bogeyman because I don't owe you anything. That is all that needs to be said.
I will partially disagree with that statement. Some only understand the sword, and you must deal with them on those terms. That may mean vitriol and rage. If you're up against somebody like that, don't worry about the threats when dealing with somebody like that though. Most people, however, are willing to negotiate. Most people are willing to back down if given an "honerable" way out. Most people will be decent so long as there is enough for them and theirs, and you are a willing trade partner.
But there are some folks...
I shop at LCS.
64.97 on the USD/Russian ruble. That's bullshit.
Buy rubles?
I don't cry over dying empires that don't cry over me.
Thank you sir.
May I have another?
Hey Larry!!!! There is no fucking global warming. Japan is screwed by their debt. You should spend less on defense, Bring your troops home and improve the lives of your citiczens you dumb fuck.
Hah ha
Okeee
Create a euphoria of nerve wrecking hysteria like Iraq WMD
commission more military bases around the world
spend more money on military
Create terrorist groups & then demonize them to attack those places
more military spending
money goes to defense manufacturing cos. & contractors
more GDP , economic recovery , america rises & shines
Right ?
----------------
The world already knows the working of Satan America , the pro$titute (of revelation) which rides the beast :
Dollar(6), Hebrew(6) , Israel(6)
666
number , number..
A few day ago it became public that the American girl that was killed when an IS compound was bombed, was a sex slave to the IS leader. Very tragic of course but I always wondered about that even after she wrote a letter, when she was still alive, that she was treated with respect. IS is raping all over the place but a prized captive -an American girl- was not? But what really made me wonder was the timing of this news. For sure they must have known for some time. But nothing galvanizes public opinion more than a fair maiden that was brutalized. But did it have enough shock value?
Interesting speech and Q&A but I really don't have the knowledge to be able to say whether this guy speaks the truth on each and every subject. I don't assume that because he is wrong about 1 thing he says that he is wrong about other things. I do tend to glaze over though when he talks about ME politics.
This is what is meant by realpolitik. It is all about organizing the world under a 'balance of power' that is favorable to the Empire and the corporations that have sprung up around it.
No, what you are describing is Facism. The term 'Realpolitik ' presumes a functioning democracy, the ethical rules of which can be circumstantially ignored for specific strategic goals. This system is no longer democratic no matter how often that word is used to describe it. The corporations are allied with the government against the people. We are the enemy.
"No, what you are describing is Facism."
An alternative description would be the merger of politics and mafia gangsterism.
Wildbad
I am certain that
Machiavelli
would not have subscribed to your
invented definition of "realpolitik" which
"presumes having a functioning democracy".
(Nor would anyone else agree who has a good grasp of world history
or the English language.)
Basically, you are outraged at the suggestion that the US attempt to maintain/expand its empire is a cynical example of "realpolitik" in defense of greed and corporations.
So, you attempt to redefine "realpolitik" as something that can only be done by "functioning democracies", and is therefore always excusable, if not good.
Whether you realize it or not,
there is an obvious bias in your declaration that
a "functioning democracy" may ignore "ethical rules" for "specific strategic goals"
... and therefore that should be the definition of "realpolitik",
but when anybody else does the same, it is "fascism".
(Your Orwellian redefinition would falsely exonerate
NATO, CIA, and Pentagon activities as
excusable "realpolitik", but not inexcusable "fascism",
so long as one can claim done by "functioning democracies".)
Ok, I stopped listening at climate change.
Kinda glad, saved me a an hour.
Idiot.
Squid
Remove all inherited wealth. Limit total wealth for individuals to 10,000,000 including corporate ownership. Return the banking system to the people and open source that bitch.
Ya the NATO nations need protection, like the shop owners needed the mafia protection.
What is being called "evil imperialism" and "empire building" has mostly been just the spread of civilization. The Indians in the U.S. were savages who had little respect for individual rights and hatred for the rule of law. The settlers acquired the right to the land there partly BEAUSE they conquered them and established law. Cortez who conquered Mexico was a brutal guy, but he wasn't as bad as Montezuma who practiced human sacrifice.
A few days ago the leader of India said publicly that Great Britain owed them millions in reparations. The truth is the people there are far better off because of their British heritage, just as we in the U.S. are. Many places in Africa would be better off today were they still under British rule. I've actually read public comments by people from both India and Africa saying this.
The fundamental error leftists make in this area is looking at rights as collective rather than as individual. Just the other day, Fidel Castro was claiming the U.S. owes Cuba reparations. What, however, does he personally owe the many victims of his oppression for the murder and suffering he has caused?
Anyone who believes in manmade global warming is either a liar or an asshole.....or a lying asshole.
I have to agree. Although we may have a very slight effect, the window of the change is so small, you really can't determine a trendline that you can identify as "definitely manmade". You can't look at 100 years, or even a thousand. Once you study the big picture, you get the idea. When I hear "high CO2 levels", I ask myself "WTF", because if high CO2 really spells doom and gloom for our future, we came from a past with WAY higher CO2 levels, yet here we are, walking and breathing. No, we're not dead yet.
Check out the BIG PICTURE:
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html#anchor147264
But I certainly see the negative posters have swallowed the bullshit, even though their heroes have been caught red-handed several times peddling manipulated data.
Their only solution to their own trumped up global conditions is to return to a feudal system where they control the wealth and we eat shit. It reminds me of the old gang game they called protection money.
This is the key theme of Larry Wilkerson's presentation. He never really questions whether empire is good or bad, sustainable or not, and at what costs. At least he does not so in the same manner as that great analyst of empire Chalmers Johnson.
And what would you be expecting from the mother fucker as deputy to the Secretary of State that wrote the fraudulent report that he knew was fraudulent for his boss that sold the American people on an invasion of Iraq and is now a professor at William & Mary? William & Mary should be disgraced for even offering him the job.
If he had any honor and decency he would have hung himself in his own basement 10 years ago! There would have been a time not too long ago where the media and especially academia would have never given him a job and ostricized him for what he had done -not anymore!
Now it's $10,000 speaking engagement(s) and the talk show gauntlet of "what a bad thing I did" but I hey... I'm an ex-psychopath that needs to make some pocket change to write a few books to tell you their is a kinder gentler side to me even though I was instrumental in killing off a couple million more people in that Country that has lots of good oil!
The key line IMO in this rant about the decline of Empire :
...Are we an Empire totally not just commercially? You bet! An Empire is one that has a Caesar to make war not a Senate to make war! And we have an Empire because its OUR EXECUtIVE that makes war; more and more so!...
That just says it all. He talks about being a "patriot" and all the while laments about 400 people in the US whose wealth equals that of Brazil! "How can we call ourselves a democracy with such inequality when a guy can buy his way into Senate in Kentucky by spending a 100 million!"
You said it friend : This empire is run by Caesar since Johnson took over in Gulf of Tonkin scam. And democracy de facto ended when Reaganomics made it possible to "buy" elections.
SO the rest about setting the table level is all hocus pocus. A man like him served the evil Empire he laments about and the "golden" age of Eisenhower's wisdom and reconquering Lincoln's GOP by kicking out all those "born again christians who want to see Judgement day occur!"...
He has also understood the climate conundrum but has no solution to it, lamenting that Arizona will be dry and burned out "its only a question of time" and DC has no solution to it given the current mindset of status quo in decline.
Amen.
According to Macquarie Research:
Deflators of the world unite
Impact on the US & Global PPIs
Pressure to export overcapacity in flat trade=devaluations
- US wholesale inflation could get worse over the next twelve months. PPI ex Food & Energy stands at only ~0.5% YoY, although it slightly accelerated in July. It is likely that regions with the greatest need to export domestic over-capacity (China, Euro, Japan and Korea) will accelerate export of deflation.
- As discussed (here), China is between a rock and a hard place and unless global cyclicality and trade recovers (an unlikely occurrence, in our view), the pressure to devalue Rmb will remain unrelenting. China’s US$ import prices into the US are already falling at ~1.2% and have been negative for six months. Given latest Rmb devaluation, it is quite likely that the index of China import prices (US$) will fall by ~2% or more.
- At the same time, the Eurozone and Japan are also increasingly exporting their domestic over-capacity and deflation into the US. Germany’s import prices into the US are currently falling by ~2% and have been negative for seven months whilst Japan’s import prices are falling by ~3%.
Low supply of US$ adds further pressure
- Inability of the US to improve its velocity of money (i.e. encourage consumers and businesses to accelerate spending and investment) and associated slow growth in global trade (volumes rising by less than 2% vs. historic average of ~6%), implies that supply of US$ remains exceptionally low (close to zero vs. average growth between 2001 and 2013 of ~15%, refer here and here).
- This in turn has a tendency to push US$ exchange rates up (DXY and US TWI), causing further expansion of deflationary pressures and erosion of commodity indices, feeding through global supply chains. Apart from an outside chance of much faster than expected nominal GDP growth rates leading to higher US Current Account deficits, supply of US$ can only expand via QE4.
Challenging choice for the Fed
- As the latest revisions of the US GDP shows, not only was this recovery the most muted on record but perhaps most importantly the US has a challenge accelerating nominal GDP growth rates above the 3%-3.5% range (here). Given the US’ overall leverage of ~3.5x GDP and need to continue leveraging in a more sustainable fashion, it is nominal rather than real GDP growth rates that matter. The objective is to keep nominal GDP as high as possible and real interest rates low. Deflationary pressures are therefore not constructive.
- Whilst the Fed seems desperate to get out of zero range-bound policies of the last seven years and is constantly shifting its public decision goalposts (first it was unemployment, and then it was broad measure of under-employment, followed by wages and inflation etc), it is just as much between a rock and a hard place as China is. It is the classic case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t. As long as it is accepted that deleveraging is no longer possible, then what is needed is QE4, not a rate rise, but currently the hurdle for QE4 is higher than doing nothing or raising rates and then walking them down again.
- The above implies that deflationary winds could get stronger and volatility rates higher. We continue to prefer commodity consumers and markets with significant domestic liquidity (i.e. India, China, Taiwan & Philippines).