Empire Fed Collapses To Six Year Lows As New Orders Signal Recession Imminent

Tyler Durden's picture

Having 'stabilized' in recent months, The Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey just collapsed to -14.92 (from 3.86) missing expectations of 4.50 by the biggest margin since 2010. Across the board it was a bloodbath with New Orders crashing, inventories plunging and employment lower (with both workweek and number of employees falling). The headline data would have been worse were it not for the concurrent spike in 'hope' - highest since April.



As New Orders Flash Recessionary signals...


Charts: Bloomberg

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cowdiddly's picture

Its called the Empire Fed, whats more to be said to understand. Gotta keep believin..

onewayticket2's picture

1Q GDP numbers were pushed way up by inventory build....now that reality of low growth (if any growth) is setting in, orders will slow, inventory will be drawn down....empire fed will reflect that, no?


....and ALWAYS keep the election calendar in mind.....a year from now, DC will want to show "strong" improvement over last year....and the best way for a "strong" next year is to have a weak this year.

dontgoforit's picture

Won't matter.  They'll say it's so anyway.

Salah's picture

Seriously, who'd want to be doing business in this region? 

phoolish's picture

So, market will be green because yellin won't raise rates 1/8 point.  LOL.

Dr. Engali's picture

But CNBS has been telling me all morning how good things are because the CONsumer has more "money" in their pockets thanks to lower gas prices (even though gas jumped 80c a gallon over night  here).


Edit; BTW, we never left the depression of 2000. I really wish we could get that right here.

minority's picture

Now THAT calls for a rate hike eh? Yeller?

mygameon's picture

Who needs to make stuff when we are a service country.


My grandfather wouldn't recognize any of this shit storm.

He would tell me to prepare, which is what we all need to do.

Back to helping the misses put up this year's crop.

Split and stack 3 loads of wood yesterday. Farmers almanac says it going to be a cold one this winter.

froze25's picture

This reminds me to get my clean burning Coal delivered, Heating oil topped off and my bi-annual propane refill.  Thank you.

back to basics's picture

Bottom line, the FED waited too long for "lift off". Now they are truly and utterly fucked........and unfortunately we along with them.

illyia's picture

You are kidding about the "hope" thingy - right, Tyler???


wmbz's picture

Eveyone needs to get out and buy more cheap shit with money they don't have.... This fellow should be put down.


'Rapacious crony capitalism' is the phrase the Nobel laureate Paul Krugman uses to describe the system in Communist China.

He calls the crisis in the People’s Republic 'worrying.' He wants the Red Chinese to be more communistic, or, as he puts it, to 'invest less and consume more,' while making reforms to 'distribute the fruits of growth more widely.'

This is what Karl Marx meant when he said: 'From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs!' " 

cpnscarlet's picture

Imagine what it would have been without the seasonal-cold-hot-weather-skewed average-exponential trifling-Ouija Board-dice throw-tea leaf-eenie meenie minie mo-EPA regulated-copper denominated-White House back hand slap-Lerner email shuffle-tax adjuysted-tire deflated-give the dog a bone adjustements???

aliki's picture

raising rates


more like, more stimulus imminent

Herdee's picture

The area reminds me of Cleveland and Detroit.Just another part of the Rust Belt. China or bust.

Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

QE4 thru 42 chatter will get market rolling again

valley chick's picture

Recession? good news then...as I thought we were in a depression. FORWARD!

bamboojay's picture

It was all the July snow upstate.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

this might be a trend commander

JailBanksters's picture

Looks like they need print money ASAP, and will have to be more than Q1, Q2 and Q3 or they can just say stuff it

gaoptimize's picture

Larry Kudlow, sindicated radio talk show host and statist/RINO/Status Quo cheerleader has opined at Breitbart that the Fed should not raise rates in September.  I wonder if he was leaked this report.

Consuelo's picture


Glad you caught that...


That old crank can't figure out what he wants - as long as the stock market continues to rise.   He incessantly opines about 'King $Dollar', yet doesn't want the stock market tanking as a result, while simultaneously trying to position himself as one who champions 'free markets' and NON-Fed intervention...    It is a delight to see these Fuckers twist & turn trying to justify their loser positions while their credibility (?) descends into nothingness.



ajkreider's picture

Low inventories flashing recession. High inventories flashing recession.
How about instead of it flashing, we just leave it on, regardless of data.

Temerity Trader's picture

It will be a while before 95 Million “investors” concede the Fed is a failure and the equities and properties bubbles will have to deflate very painfully. There is NO way this economy can support these prices. Liar loans, no-qual loans, nothing down…where has we seen all this before? Looser and looser credit to hold off the final collapse. Expect more QE when stocks plunge and thousands more overbuilt condos, houses and apartment complexes go into foreclosure. Retail is toast…malls will be closing and more pain is coming. The banks will demand bailouts again…Trump will tell them to f*** off...file bankruptcy!

McMansions are a joke and two people working at Wal-Mart cannot make mortgage payments and also lease payments for a BMW and Lexus. The jet skis will have to go to the repo man too. The numbers just don’t work. House prices have to come crashing down, especially in the largest bubble areas like Silicon Valley. One gigantic Fed induced debt-driven party. “If the stock market rises, people will feel rich and go out and buy things.” Corporations keep borrowing to buy back shares…there is no growth anywhere except a few service jobs which pay little and go to illegals. Trump will send them home, but try to get Americans to take jobs that yield a Chinese lifestyle of a small apartment and a Moped.

Entitlements have to be cut way back…good luck on that. Can you say “Greece”? Try to get millions who feel the government owes them everything, to take cuts. How can people take more out than they put in? It will never work, it is only a Ponzi scheme. Social security, EBT cards, veteran benefits for PTSD claims for those never in combat, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare…totally unsupportable.

Good luck fixing this mess, Donald.


Glass Seagull's picture



Why would mfg new orders need to continue to grow when we have too much inventory in the US?  Large inventory/sales ratio signalled this well in advance.  We do not need to continue to build moar domestic inventories, ESPECIALLY when we can just buy the stuff on a quick 5% discount from China now.


wizteknet's picture

np wrong subject