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Homebuilder Confidence Jumps To 10 Year Highs As Lumber Prices, New Home Sales Slump
NAHB Sentiment jumped to 61 - the highest since 2005 - despite weakening new home sales and collapsing lumber prices. Housing Starts also remain tepid (especially compared to 2005 levels) but hope springs eternal for an industry almost 100% reliant on hope. Prospective buyer traffic rose 2 points as Northeast saw a drop as West and South saw modest increases.
10 Year highs!!!
And then again there is this...
And this...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Seems legit. Home builder activity is down and sentiment is up. Par for the course since 2009.
Starts are racing ahead to beat rate increases . . .
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1DO5
Beaches in Florida Panhandle are booming-literally every lot has a 7,000+ sq ft house going up-all cash-no mortgages.
Laguna California is building along the ridges of all the hills surrounding the city...sold, sold, sold...$1M plus 1ksqft homes...SOLD!
850sqft condo, $350k...SOLD!..my garage is 850sqft!
I was just out there and could not beleive it--I was down towrad Newport Coast above the Pelican Resort.
Those homes are selling due to the income in entertainmnet and sports. In addition people have become paper rich in stocks.
When the stuff hits the fan it will fling out in all directions suddenly and severely. A lot of paper wealth will disappear.
Its happened before and will happen again--this time will be different. The severity will be dramatic since we did not have Fed intervention to this extent before. Thats assuming of course the Fed loses control and the bulk of the people notice that.
Most SOLD to Chi-coms sight unseen...
buy when there is blood in the streets
Sentiment at ten year highs doesn't say blood in the street to me.
Living on sentiment, walking on a cloud; now really is the best time to sell a home!
Sell a home and live where? Rent? Rents are 50% more than owning!
One of my kids was recently invited to a birthday party...i looked up the address on Google Earth...it was an empty housing development...nothing but roads...so we drive there...not empty anymore...completely built out with ~$500k homes...this in a city where the median income is ~$28k a year...so you've got ~$56k housholds buying ~$500k homes...what could go wrong there over the next 30 years?
By the way, sell your Pizza Hut (YUM) stock...party featured PH Pizza...my teen said it was gross..no one lked it..parents appologized for the crappy pizza...PH is in trouble.
"Rents are 50% more than owning"
Realtard drivel
exaggerated, yes, but rent is not cheap.
an entire generation of young people don't even think about buying a home anymore - they have neither the credit nor the income. but they all want to live in the hip neighborhoods in the hip cities = sky-high rent for alot of young people in alot of places...
"Realtard drivel "
"ok, with zero down and 3% interest, a 275k condo costs 625 a month interest--how much is a shitty apartment"
Answer that moron...
Locally, 2BR, 800sqft apartment is ~$1400 a month = $1.75sqft
$250K 4BR home, 2800sqft, ~$1500 month = $.54sqft
Shit, rent is 3X buying when you go by sqft cost!
Need to get out of your bunker more often....
Well, moron
"zero down and 3% interest, a 275k condo costs 625 a month interest--"
You don't just pay interest, your monthy payment consists of interest and principal. A 275k loan at 3% is $1,160 per month total payment excluding taxes and insurance and condo fees. And where are you finding a 0% down loan with 3% interest? FHA loans that require 3.5% down have a 3.95% interest rate plus other fees.
And not everyone who doesn't buy into the NAR propanda is a bunker dweller. Now go call your local realtard so you can get the "real" scoop on the housing market.
Also, when housing bubble 2.0 pops, your $275k condo will be worth $150k, so now you're underwater $125k but still trapped in a $275k loan. Sounds better than renting to me.....
"You don't just pay interest"
Oh, I didn't realize that...duh..sorry...oh wait, maybe I'm not the dumbass here...
interest only mortgage
"The borrower only pays the interest on the mortgage through monthly payments for a term that is fixed on an interest-only mortgage loan. The term is usually between 5 and 7 years."
ON A PER SQFT BASIS - RENTING IS 2X to 3X MORE EXPENSIVE THAN OWNING - PERIOD - ACCEPT IT.
You actually think you don't have to pay any principal at some point during the loan? You really are dense and you don't know what you're talking about - PERIOD. This part was left out of your cut and paste
"After the term is over, many refinance their homes, make a lump sum payment, or they begin paying off the principal of the loan. However, when paying the principal, payments significantly increase."
So if you don't start making payments that include principal and interest, you have to come up with a lump sum of $275k.
http://www.mortgagecalculator.org/helpful-advice/interest-only-mortgages...
And they are hard to qualify for:
"If interest-only loans were issued too freely before the foreclosure crisis, their availability now is restricted to a privileged few."
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/realestate/loans-for-a-niche-market-ar...
Here in rural Kansas, I'm leasing my houses for free, because I can't attract people to move here any other way. Essentially caretaker jobs with free housing.
How is the Tentbuilder sentiment doing nowadays?
Did a mouse tell them that Obama plans to flood the US with 25 million more immigrants before he leaves office?
So, low lumber AND labor costs. Bullish.
Trump will take care of those low labor costs and the cost to build new will jump dramatically making existing properties more expensive...whant business is Trump in again?
Freaking bullshit everywhere.
We all feel like it's a good time to buy a house.
Have you seen the Real Estate reality show boom?
More reliable than these stupid charts even!
#USAUSAUSA
my wife watches and dvrs those housing shows and drives me nuts. She does not want to discuss politics or economy.
that tells me how bad things are in that people do nto want to know whats really going on and all they want are diversions. My wife went to and graduated from an elite school. Not sure what she learned on her way to Phi Beta Kappa.
I started out working for a CPA firm and was on the recruiting team. The Head of the team guided us to hiring people with street smarts. He said forget the grades. We hire sharp people.
The TV lineup is a very accurate index of the current "focuses" of the people, imo. Whether its influential or reflective in nature is immaterial. It's fucking nauseating.
If the tv ever stops working...
ah, if only.
"The TV lineup is...fucking nauseating"
Cop shows, cop shows, cop shows...enough fucking already!
GUNS KILL PEOPLE! It's true! I see it in every show coming out of Hollywood!
On the road to banning guns, let's start with banning the positive, fun, cool, awsome, wow, dipiction of guns on tv and in the movies...
If "guns kill people", then surely the depiction of guns using people to kill people, in cool way, contributes to violence?
~~~~~~~~~~
Insanely tight gun laws in the UK...yet BBC features guns in many of it's shows..time to ban the depiction of gun violence on TV...
Gun Violence? Hmmm. Gun Safety!
Meaningless drivel, bottom line the builders say what are their masters tell them to say, the market is in depression mode so must keep up appearances...NOW GO SHOPPING!
And the Dow erases over 100 points in over night losses in the blink of an eye...
Your first day following the *markets*? You surprised?
"depression mode"???? another Trump supporter I see...Housing is in a mini boom mode...not as great as Bushs' "Dream Economy" but definitely on the move.
Locally, they're building $250k condos only a mile or so from our ghettos...and they sell like hotcakes...old ricketly houses in our white trash areas are fetching $100k...median income in those areas is sub $20k.
That is not what happens in a depression.
ok, with zero down and 3% interest, a 275k condo costs 625 a month interest--how much is a shitty apartment.
I get outside the city and see townhomes for 199k. With a basement you can put 2 families in there. Welfare for 2 families will pay for tha and if 2 of the people work for 8 an hour between welfare and earned income they do ok. Yes, not great, but not too bad considering they work in a no brainer, no pressure situation.
I've tried to find the zero down at 3% and not counting the college plus loans in my debt to income. Can you direct me to who is offering such?
30 Year Fixed VA
3.875%
Zero down
Zero Points
https://ia.homeserviceslending.com/rates
This would be a mania, not a boom. The Fed has pulled out all the stops to keep housing prices up on the inventory on the banks books and their own. This will end in a depression.
look at who is buying and how... my guess is that banks/REITS are buying the cheap old stock, while the handful of young people with jobs are buying the condos... neither is the stuff of recovery/healthy RE market. Give it 18 more months and let's see how those developments/neighborhoods are doing...
look at the fucking Dow...
nough fucking said....
http://www.marketwatch.com
Here on Lake Keowee in western South Carolina home sales are brisk, land sales too, prices rising, big money vacation homes under construction and formally abandoned developments coming back to life.
Sometimes it pays to get away from the stats and kick the actual tires.
Lumber prices are down, so of course home builders are happy. And while sales are just OK, they are well up from last year. Mortgage apps down - no worry - who needs lowly buyers who need mortgages? Build your homes, cash sales to a buyer, and move on to the next build.
Actual data like this still points to big money and even grand dad and grand mom taking money out of the bank, and buying homes for rental income. That defies some earlier stories saying that boom was drying up. Boomers are also looking south to escape winter, and are paying cash. Compared to big Northern cities, the South is warm and cheap!
Lumber prices are down also because there is way too much capacity. The lumber industry has been financialized like everything else. No need to make a profit; just need a good bullshit story to sell more shares and debt.
The only sawyer most of the suits in the head offices ever met was reading a Mark Twain novel.
The Fed has truly created the living dead.
multi-family is booming here in denver
I wouldn't touch those new multi-family developments with a ten ft. pole. Future slums.
The amount of teardowns of two-flats in 60613 and 60618 is accelerating (which blows my mind.) Properties that fetch $750k+ are being replaced with "luxury" single-family homes with 4000sf+ for $1.5mil and up.
For perspective, these "luxury" homes are two-story buildings with a basement on a 25'x100' city plot, and the tiny patch of back yard is usually sacrificed for a larger living space plus garage, which is usually built-up complete with deck, pergola, etc for entertainment.
The homes themselves usually have lots of bells and whistles with applicances, electronic setups and whatnot.
What I always ask myself is: Who the hell can afford these things?
"Prospective buyer traffic rose 2 points" Should read,
"Inexpensive casual entertainment". Rose.
the fed: "we have a plunge protection team for any indicator you need"
While we have some building going on, I still see an awful lot of vacant homes and homes on the market for 100+ days (In at least one case, better than 700 days). People are signing for those mega homes with no intention of paying it off, figuring they are good for at least 3 years once they stop paying for it. Rents are out of sight, but actual cash paying buyers are few and far between.
"If you build it, they will come" - James Earl Jones, reused by Larry Yun
The current RE/builder boom is:
1) all-cash McMansions, and
2) cheap multi-family egg cartons in marginal neighborhoods
The all-cash McMansions should be a warning - correlates to people getting out of the system and putting their savings/wealth elsewhere.
The cheap condos are simply competing with rentals (or being rented themselves) - these poorly-built shoeboxes will not appreciate in value and will end-up like the 'projects' of the 60's/70's, IMO.
Buy matches before they're outlawed.
You're going to need them.
I'm OTG and have been for a while... well-stocked with all sorts of barter fodder.
Pass a law that prevents foreigners from purchasing residential real estate in the US.
Watch what happens.
You will learn that mobile assets are safer when the burning begins.
It'll never happen.
But if it did, the high-end market - esp. cities like NYC & SF - would collapse overnight.
Americans are paying rents and taxes to foreign entities.
What is left of America?
A wasteland is what I see.
I see it too.
The collaspe is happening more slowly than I had anticipated, but I'm learning to take advantage of the snails' pace, i.e. arbitrage opportunities.
God will not accept that excuse.
We gave everyone a chance to flee the building by burning it slowly?
That argument would convict you of Arson in any courtroom.
These are not real numbers. These are the FEELINGS of a bunch of guys known for consuming lots of nose candy.