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Volumeless levitation against every other asset class... or QE4 pricing in?
And the reason for the levitation... Simple - no volume!!
Charts: Bloomberg
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Does it really even matter anymore?
The world is coming apart at the seams. Everyone and their brother is cutting corners and putting out marginal products in any and all hope to eek out a slim profit.
And the banksters still make a killing.
The most vile system ever devised.
pods
Of course it matters, the bookies need to know where to set the odds for doomsday.....
Pods is right, it doesn't matter...
In the future, instead of smoke and mirrors the saying will be price and volume....
Even when there is volume, it's just between one machine on one side of the room selling it to the other machine in the corner. I'm not even sure there needs to be a mark, er I mean buyer, involved anymore.
dont forget the VIX being set up for more smashing...stocks up....VIX up....we can all do the math
The "market" was once known as a predictive indicator of the economy. That was before the FED broke the glass and simply started pushing the needle around thinking the economy would follow. It's not surprising that an indicator of volatility would be broken and used in the same manner.
The VIX bugs the shit out of me... supposed to be a straight-up volatility index: Ups & Downs.
Yet it barely correlates to actual market action, esp. in the 'down' direction... so how is this not fraud? It's simple arithmatic, and it doesn't add up.
I see posts here about 1) retail investors, and 2) all-cash home buyers...
...seems to me that 1) got out of the game in 2008, and have now become 2) reluctantly putting their wealth into anything that MIGHT yield more than 0.005% over time, and/or enjoying their wealth (by living in it) while they can (mostly boomers who actually saved some scratch).
The VIX is just estimating the (annualized) volatility for the next 30 days based on a basket of currently available options on the S&P 500.
Therefore it only indicates how investors look at the market, not how volatile it might really be.
As it's public which options are used to derive the VIX value, I wager it shouldn't be too hard to manipulate given you have enough money to blow.
Jim Rickards - The Federal Reserve Is FUCKED!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nOX7CuzigQ
That assumes the Fed wants to save the system... check your premises!
Now what I want to ask you, do you really believe we can win by betting against the system?
After reading the same shit for more than five years I am starting to think the sheep might forever be fleeced and I might as well join the party. But how?
No, you can't. The only thing you can do, is withdraw from the system as much as you can.
And, if you refuse to take on debt, you will affect the system.
Aggregate debt must continually rise, or it will start an implosion (from defaults).
Debt can come from us, or the government.
We tapped out ~2007, it almost blew in '08 but the government stepped in. Now, they are tapped out too.
That is the only thing we can do to try and negotiate a future for our progeny.
pods
Time for a new Wickard v. Filburn type ruling to force people to take on debt to pay for Obamacare. Hey, we've come this far, why stop now. Maybe Roberts will just write it himself.
Sadly, I could see The Dread Justice Roberts doing just that.
Once is never enough, right?
Pods is exactly right.
...although I would say that we tapped out in real terms in 1987, after which Greenspan 'facilitated' easy credit to those who could not repay it in the 1990's...doubled down on the easy credit in 2000 when the low-grade credit he'd facilitated defaulted, and finally Bernanke went full-on Weimar to facilitate the Government taking on the debt.
Here's the issue, which everyone should research. It used to be on the Fed's own site, though I don't know if it still is. Regardless it is google-able.
THE ISSUE:
To create a Dollar of currency in the Fed system requires more than a Dollar of Debt + Interest.
That's it. There's nothing more to know other than to follow the bread crumbs of that fact to all its effects.
The most obvious effect is that they have to continually roll-over the debt, WITHOUT ALLOWING THE TOTAL DEBT TO DECLINE. If they don't roll it over, the system crashes in defaults because there will be too few dollars in existence to pay principle & interest on the last dollars they created...
It is like Monopoly. When the banker has all the money, and you land on Park Place you have to bankrupt because it is impossible to pay. We hit that point no later than 1987, and probably in 1971. Since then they've simply been delaying the end-game through various schemes that all do one thing...they expand debt, so that the Treasuries securing the creation of dollars can be rolled over.
So...Gold Backing went bankrupt in 1971... so they had to expand debt creation to keep the monetary system alive (or Treasuries would default, and the Dollars whose creation they backed would evaporate...leading to a chain reaction).
That lead to Volker's interest hikes...(that was only a confidence move...because they were simultaneously backing commercial banks in the consumer credit explosion).
Which lead to 1987... (So Greenspan lowered SHORT TERM interest rates such that marginal borrowers would not default on credit cards) which lead to marginal borrowers becoming saturated with debt, causing credit expansion to reach its limit, in turn leading to...
The Asia Crisis and Nasdaq bubble in 2000... Triggering Greenspan lowered LONG TERM interest to allow LONG TERM Debts to expand (since short term couldn't expand anymore...remember the commercials about consolidating your debt? Taking a second mortgage to payoff consumer debt? With a little extra for you?...That is what it was all about.) But that caused a super-bubble in real-estate and all its derivatives (Mortgage Backed Securities, etc), leading to ....
2007... where Fannie, Freddie, and all the multiples of Fractional Reserved credit their mortgages supported imploded, causing the Bernanke and the Congress to directly take responsibility for credit expansion through Federal Spending and QE...which blew up the T-bill bubble...leading to the verge of dollar abandonment and US Gov't fiscal collapse due to lack of confidence. This triggered the dove, Yellen, to 'halt QE'...exept it isn't halted... they're just not recording it, or the continued Federal debt expansion...which has been mysteriously frozen for half a year.
Leading to now... Where we are waiting to discover whether we'll be financially destroyed by official capitulation, deflation as defaults evaporate the money supply... Or whether we'll get inflation, as the Fed overtly and intentionally prints so that their cronies keep some skin through the crash.
Of course this is discretionary to the Banking Cartel...and they get destroyed in Deflation...along with anyone who owes money.
if everyone with a buck to spend bought into the market (increase volume), could we bring it down? they got it all covered, no volume "win!", volume up "win!" they got it all covered. can't seem to trust them enough to put a buck into this shit-show myself.
Take that dollar and put it in some single mom's garter. At least that is honest work.
pods
The yen will die.
Possibly, both.
Even though it sounds like Kaiser's failed meme, the ONLY way to defeat the banksters is to buy physical PMs and be your own bank.
It's options expiration week. anyone who bought protection (Puts) either takes profits (sells the puts) or the option is expiring and they close it before the end of the week. Happens every month.
Pinged 2100, time to start trading sideways. Wheee!
But but this is correct. This is how the market works, if it goes up without volume thats becuz there is no seller... This is price discovery. After all, it still exists.
The 25bps hike crowd will still be squealing for it when QE4 slaps them in the kisser.
Oh, that's my favourite but I'm having trouble here. Odd would be a different, unusual behaviour, right? But spx levitates quite commonly the last years above HYG or 30yrs and such, and if those refuse to follow spx will drop again. So, hmm... I guess I'll take gold, which should have soared alongside spx..