This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Only The Date Is Unknown
The US and world economies are frauds that are coming unraveled. The Greek bailout is the most recent example of “kick the can down the road” solutions. The US housing bubble was an attempt to cover up/recover from the dot-com bust. Now the US is in a financial bubble engineered to recover from the housing bubble debacle. Soon this bubble will burst. Only the date is unknown.
Two predictions can be made with reasonable confidence:
- The stock market is likely to be halved and that might be optimistic. Only the date is unknown.
- The economy will eventually resemble the Great Depression. Only the date is unknown.
Nothing is ever certain. An experienced CFO told me at the beginning of my career that “even the impossible has a 20% probability.” In deference to him and years of empirical evidence, I put the the above two events as virtually certain, i.e., an 80% probability.
The Current Problem
Phoenix Capital provided reasons to expect horrible outcomes:
- The REAL problem for the financial system is the bond bubble. In 2008 when the crisis hit it was $80 trillion. It has since grown to over $100 trillion.
- The derivatives market that uses this bond bubble as collateral is over $555 trillion in size.
- Many of the large multinational corporations, sovereign governments, and even municipalities have used derivatives to fake earnings and hide debt. NO ONE knows to what degree this has been the case, but given that 20% of corporate CFOs have admitted to faking earnings in the past, it’s likely a significant amount.
- Corporations today are more leveraged than they were in 2007. As Stanley Druckenmiller noted recently, in 2007 corporate bonds were $3.5 trillion… today they are $7 trillion: an amount equal to nearly 50% of US GDP.
- The Central Banks are now all leveraged at levels greater than or equal to where Lehman Brothers was when it imploded. The Fed is leveraged at 78 to 1. The ECB is leveraged at over 26 to 1. Lehman Brothers was leveraged at 30 to 1.
- The Central Banks have no idea how to exit their strategies. Fed minutes released from 2009 show Janet Yellen was worried about how to exit when the Fed’s balance sheet was $1.3 trillion (back in 2009). Today it’s over $4.5 trillion.
The cumulative effects of decades of interventions to mask economic weakness are harmful to the economy. Statistical manipulation and outright lies in government reporting of economic conditions suggest that times are becoming ever more desperate for the political class. There is not enough bailing wire in the world to hold this train wreck in check. Nor is there any way to solve the massive problems created over decades.
Mac Slavo believes we are already in a world-wide depression stating:
With stock markets in China having self destructed, Greece and Europe in another crisis, and corporate earnings for some of the world’s biggest corporations showing lackluster performance, it should be clear that the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
But for the last several years America has appeared to remain fairly insulated from overt crisis. We were told that a recovery had taken hold, jobs were returning and consumer confidence had reached new highs, propaganda which drove millions of investors back into stock markets and real estate. No one in the mainstream world, it seems, believes there’s anything to be concerned about.
Except there is.
Nassim Taleb described the problem:
Uncertainty should not bother you. We may not be able to forecast when a bridge will break, but we can identify which ones are faulty and poorly built. We can assess vulnerability. And today the financial bridges across the world are very vulnerable. Politicians prescribe ever larger doses of pain killer in the form of financial bailouts, which consists in curing debt with debt, like curing an addiction with an addiction, that is to say it is not a cure. This cycle will end, like it always does, spectacularly.
Each intervention has been bigger than the previous one. And they are needed more frequently. Bad times are here and have been despite what government says. Worse times lie ahead. Only the date is unknown.
Government is helpless at this point. Their cover-ups have made matters worse. When the unknown date arrives, America will likely look like some third-world country. Its political system may not survive.
Welcome to Venezuela with nuclear weapons.
»
- 115407 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
"The economy will eventually resemble the Great Depression. Only the date is unknown."
September 15, 2008
NO FAIR, YOU PEAKED
still at least 2 people dumb enough to equate the markets with the economy... some people are ineducatable
from your posts, that I've seen,the self revelation must be cathartic.
Is this supposed to scare me?
Pfffffttt!
I'm scared, aint you boys scared??
The guillotines await their turn at the table.
On the menu: Bankster and slither with a side of thug.
Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity..
THERE they are. I needed my daily guillotine fix...soon, I fear only wood chippers may satisfy me.
The 1%ers fared very well during the French Revolution. I believe they comprised a total of 6% of those guillotined. I hope we do better next time!
Agreeably the global economy did not produce any growth in the last two decades except for the growth fueled by debt expansion. Growth by debt expansion does not constitute real asset growth. The market economy has been dismantled and is now dysfunctional. The US did concquer the Sovietunion only to inherit elements of the centrally planned economy.
Politics should guide and manage society not economy. The political management of economical affairs is creating havoc. Central banks are leading an independet live and are controlled by very few individuals. Since all or most of the leading central banks copy the FED it is fair to assume that individuals behind the FED control global economy. This I believe is not acceptable and could only be changed by the abolishment of the FED.
Seems to be a popular date.
At least it is for the Russians?... They know the Khazar so well after their bellies are full post holiday!!!
2015.75
It's easy: when debt stops increasing more than output. But if you want a prediction, I am sure ekm1 can supply one.
the word "fraud" has a sister semantic called "fraught"...
And, as my mother taught me : A fraud is a situation fraught with reward.
Pity she ain't there to tell me how to apply her wisdom.
'Cos my wisdom tooth I acquired in serving the Oil Cabal and I don't want to lose it like I lost my youth's illusions, in chasing "fraught's" taut rope, like in a Hitchcockian movie, to catch Moby's oligarchy dick!.
The great white one is the dream of all Kyles who want to bask in "I'm king of Oligarchy world" on the Titanic, irrespective of if it sinks or swims. The thrill is always transient, as "they lived happily ever after" is not on the cards in the world of sharks.
Hey Berkshire's King...how's the hamburger in Omaha these days?
Needs work, Mr Bot.
barry just approved Shell Oil to continue drilling off the coast of Alaska.
hmmm.....I guess the amount on barry's check was enough to move this stiff off his ass and do something that makes sense.
having a European company approved to drill in the US - barry strikes again - barry, you are one fucking annoying geek!!!
Royal DUTCH Shell got the contract because if they didn't they were going to blow the whistle on USA being behind false flag attack on MH17,
Royal DUTCH Shell got the contract because if they didn't they were going to blow the whistle on USA being behind false flag attack on MH17,
http://www.zerohedge.com/users/newsoutlet
When it all comes tumbling down, that is the time to buy gold. Should be able to pick up an OZ for a can of beans and warm rock to cook it on. With each passing day we get closer to that glorious time when I will transform beans into gold!
I can transform beans into natural gas now.
An old movie had the line: "He's the largest source of untapped natural gas known to man."
I think the EPA just banned that as "unnatural". Their logic (as always) is impeccable ;-/
Blazing Saddles ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6dm9rN6oTs
TY I will add that benefit to the beans for gold marketing material Bastiat. The benefits of off the grid/energy self sufficency aught to boost sales a couple percent.
The theta on my puts is depressing me. Let's get this show started already.
Tick tick, tick tock...
Don't forget,..... motherfuckers.
Hillary is the banksters and ziocons shoe-in for 2016 - 2024. If this e-mail scandal gets any worse they may just pull the whole thing down, while they still have their lawn jockey in the white house to control the crisis
+1
So predictable, HNIC and Yellen will take the fall. Hitlery swoops in to save the day, and will make Fauxcohontas Sec. of the Treasury.
I maintain that Hitlery will be the next POTUS, the bankers have so much wrapped up in her getting elected that it has to happen.
It will strike when it strikes on a planned scedule unknown to man. Like lighting.
"Jewish Lightning"
It's Captain PeachFuzz and his evil Ensign
Who is the counter party?
How can there be $2 quintillion in derivatives? The last time I looked, there were $250 trillion in derivatives. Who is carrying the insurance? AIG again?
Why should I care? 'Cause I know my US Savings Bonds are still good.
Monday October 5, 2015
The rest of the world calls it 5 October 2015. Do any Americans know what the time 1500 is in AM PM time? Except miltary people.
is there an App for that?
If you need an app for that you are already braindead. LOL
Local or Zulu?
Enough with the date format whining. News flash Ace: We still use inches, pounds and gallons too. So what?
Lighten up Francis.
Yeah and you are fast approaching 2nd world status when one looks at your archaic country.
Do some travelling worldwide and when you come back to the USA you wll know what I mean.
Yeah and you are fast approaching 2nd world status when one looks at your archaic country.
Do some travelling worldwide and when you come back to the USA you wll know what I mean.
If you think the rest of the world is going to go to your system, you really need to grow a brain.
If you think the rest of the world is going to go to your system, you really need to grow a brain.
If you think the rest of the world is going to go to your system, you really need to grow a brain.
I'm pretty sure China is close to going SAE...metric is too easy and they like a challenge...
I will tell you the same thing when you Americunts come here demanding everyone speak English . So fuck off, Francis.
To be honest, as a Brit I used all that stuff too and still do for some things. But in temperatures I switched to celsius about 20 years ago and have never looked back, and also to kilos, metres/cm and mm & litres (liters in American English). But I'm still using miles.
I think the change for me came when computers took over, they really do like multiples of 10.
Actually computers like powers of 2. The whole ten thing is just for dumb old users. You can't represent 1/10 accurately on a computer. When skynet rules the world the metric system will be gone.
Yes, it truly is ironic that fractional inches are exactly binary.
-----
1 inch.
1/2 inch.
1/4 inch.
1/8 inch.
1/16 inch.
1/32 inch.
1/64 inch...
... and so forth.
Nonetheless, even as a "computer girl", I'm pretty much comfortable with metric now.
"You can't represent 1/10 accurately on a computer."
Try: 0.1
But when you go to the pub, you still order a PINT of beer!
zulu or did you mean 3:00pm?
I have switched all of my clocks over to metric time. Much easier calculating payroll.
http://www.zerohedge.com/users/newsoutlet
People need to be really careful when they wish for a "reset". Things will be a lot worse than anyone can imagine. As bad as things are right now, it still beats a post "rest" world!
Depends on what replaces it...
Wrong. It is precisely focus on short-term only that has gotten the world into a terminally screwed situation. The "good life" requires those who cause disaster suffer the disasters (go out of business == reset), not get endless series of short term fixes.
To be sure, via endless short-term fixes malinvestment and inefficiency have reached staggering levels, and the "reset" will be brutal. Nonetheless, the longer that is put off, the worse the ultimate disaster is.
Take the hit. Get beyond. Kill the predators. Then be productive, defend self/family/friends, and gradually achieve the good life.
That's the formula for success. But humans aren't up to it. They'll keep accepting fake short-term kick the can avoidance mechanisms until the system explodes in the most egregious manner possible.
And so, humans are finished.
Good post, Ann.
From your previous postings, I gather that you are fortunate enough to be properly insulated from the chaos that will no doubt result from a world-wide monetary collapse.
For the majority of us, no matter how prepared we may think we are, the violence is going to be unprecedented. I fear that the "predators" are going to far outnumber those of us who only wish to survive.
Yes, I'm just about as close to "totally safe" as is possible.
-----
However, perhaps I should make a comment here. Some friends of mine just decided to create a safe-as-possible place to live within the evil empire. I think that's crazy, but one half of the couple doing this simply refuses to move anywhere English isn't common. Since all primarily English speaking nations are part of the wider evil empire, they decided to find the best place they could within its borders.
The place they chose is excellent, all things considered.
Warm weather and sunshine all year long, which means perfect for solar-power and growing organic gardens and raising free range chickens for eggs and meat all year long.
On an island in the middle of an ocean, so they are completely isolated from the wandering hordes of starving folks when the SHTF. This is not true of all islands of course, since islands like Oahu, Maui, Kauai and others host hundreds of thousands of residents and grow little food. But this island is fairly large and only has 5000~7000 residents, zero traffic lights, two tiny towns, zero big-box stores or even name-brand stores like "Safeway". The residents are so rabidly anti-development they've prevented development for decades. They've seen what happens to the lifestyle when tropical islands are "developed". The lifestyle goes to hell.
So when the SHTF, they'll be self-sufficient and as outta-sight, outta-mind as is possible within the evil empire except for very harsh places like remote Alaska.
The property they're buying (and looking for 2 or 3 partners to collaborate) looks and feels nothing like what people would normally think of as a "bolthole" or "escape plan" or "cabin in the woods". It already has solar-energy, water-collection and 10,000 gallons of water storage and productive fruit and nut trees. So it is well on its way to self-sufficiency. They plan to plant heirloom seed organic gardens sufficient to feed 10 people (including some free-range chickens on the property for eggs and meat). There are wild food sources too, like deer and wild pigs, but they do not consider that a reliable source in any SHTF scenario.
Since the all time low and high temperatures are 55F and 88F, and the weather is rarely outright humid, the heat and AC systems are truly optional... never needed. And food grows crazy in such a warm and sunny environment, so food production is much easier and less problematic here than most places (no need to jar/can/store food for winter).
The totally insane part of this story is this. The property their buying is directly on a 2~3 mile long white sand beach next to eternally tropical waters (80F). Endless tropical fish and coral reefs, perfect for world-class snorkel and scuba. Though some food fish and other seafood are available next to the beach, enormous quantities of some of the most delicious fish are available a bit further offshore (requires at least a small vessel). So this is another source of food.
But the point I keep trying to get to is... living here is freaking paradise. This 2~3 mile long white sand beach typically contains zero human beings. The entire area is almost devoid of human activity... though there is a small cluster of perhaps 100 condo buildings with 3~5 units each a few miles north. But most are empty except when owners come for vacation, so that's a very slow pace "sleepy town" too. So usually the beach near the condos only contains 3 or 4 people. The entire island is almost no-mans-land, almost like some "after the nuclear war" movie. And everyone tends to be relaxed and happy, so... good start. Oh, plus, this place is "at the far end of the island", as far as possible away from 99% of the dinky population of 5000~7000. And this is not a tiny island... maybe 40 miles long and roughly 250 square miles?
Oh, and what they're buying isn't just a parcel of land. It contains a huge 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home that is divided into 3 separate structures connected by a covered outside deck. The home is beautiful... mostly gorgeous hardwood, very high quality throughout. Plus a large game/entertainment room downstairs that could easily become 2 more bedrooms and a bathroom. Plus an outdoor shower for rinsing off sand from the beach. Plus a workshop and 2 car garage. Plus a tennis court... give me a break! This is like life of the rich and famous in paradise!
Their plan is to have 3 or 4 partners, perhaps some of whom don't live there until and unless the SHTF. Each would need to invest just under $400K to buy this place cash. Or just $80K to $120K each for 20% down payment, plus $2000 or $3000 per month mortgage payments. But... here is another really cool kicker. Unless most of the partners move in immediately, they plan to run the place as a B&B. Turns out, there is a similar 4br, 4ba home that vacation rents further down the exact same beach, and yearly revenue appears to be roughly $120K per year. That's more than the freaking mortgage payments! So, quite possibly, the partners would rarely if ever need to pay any mortgage payments. How cool is that?
Up to 2 more homes can be constructed on the parcel according to rules. Also, the parcel is classified as "farm parcel" and so property tax is only 0.15%. About half what the dinky drywall 2br2ba condos 3 miles north pay!
I love their plan. Well, except personally I would never stay within the evil empire. Nonetheless, I've noticed a great many folks want to have a great SHTF plan, but don't feel comfortable outside the gulag. This place is about as perfect as anywhere could be for such folks. Perfect for self-sufficiency, as outta-sight and outta-mind as anywhere in the evil empire can be, the best weather a human being can find on planet earth, and the best environment too (beachfront on tropical waters). Wow.
So, I mention all the above in case someone here has been looking for an "easy way" to prepare safe, secure and comfortable digs for when the SHTF arrives... or is simply ready to get the hell outta dodge now... in style!
If so, reply below for more information and/or to get in contact with the folks implementing this project. For everyone with no plans or preparations... good luck to you! Very soon, you're gonna need it.
All that......or you could just buy some property in rural Arkansas.
And be eaten by starving zombies.
Good plan.
-----
A tad more seriously though, I understand not everyone can afford to implement safer and more thorough escape and survive plans. Therefore, what you propose may be the best some can achieve.
Nonetheless, what you propose isn't even close to comparable in many important ways. As well as non-crucial but enjoyable ways.
Great posts, have you ever seen the movie - "The Beach" starring Leonardo DiCaprio?
I don't think so. Should I?
Yes, !!
Just watched it. Generally liked it a lot, because I like adventure and unusual situations. And solitude, beaches, privacy, etc.
However, I thought the crowd behavior at the end was absolutely, completely, totally and utterly absurd. They're all rooting to shoot Leonardo, and they're fine with that. But when the gun doesn't fire, they all freak and leave the island. I'm sorry, that's just over the top beyond nonsense.
Surely the screenwriter could have thought up something better to justify the contrived ending he wanted. Or have them learn a lesson (as they should) and take their secret more seriously (ignoring the fact that Leonardo left the map before he even understood the need for secrecy).
If you wanted me to watch this because you imagine that property my friends are buying is somehow remotely similar... well... sorry, but that's just totally nuts. The property is part of a freaking resort created 40 years ago, but on an island that nobody goes to, and thus got closed down for lack of business. But the condos in the resort have owners who still vacation there, or vacation rent to tourists who want to stay somewhere totally off the beaten trails (somewhere totally unlike Honolulu, Maui or even other less-known, less-popular islands).
But they're buying property on a largely abandoned but nonetheless totally real and conventional location in USSA territory, not some crazy off-limits not-allowed-to-be-there island in some strange foreign land. So nothing in the movie really applies, except the location truly is a quiet tropical beach paradise.
But I did enjoy the movie. I must say, I am so much more responsible than Leonardo and some of those other people, that even in the environment and situation in the movie, I would surely encounter less drama. I don't need drama and danger to make my life interesting, and don't pretend I'm part of a video game either!
Thanks for suggesting the movie. Enjoyable.
Cuba!!
yabut...
we're all just tired of waiting, the stress of living in an insane but stable world is worse than facing what must come anyway.
...bring it on...
Four predictions can be made with 100% confidence:
1. The planned stock market crash date is known.
2. The plan for the economy to be worse than the Great Depression date is known.
3. The planned start date for WW3 is known.
4. These can still be stopped and the course changed if enough individuals and groups come together and put their time and effort into making it happen.
Yep. Look at the cartoon. The ship is not floating. The engines may be running but it is resting on the bottom. It will be pushed over the edge on the planned date.
There is a lot of money to be made off of WWIII. Blankfein will come out smelling like a rose.
Possible we're only looking at a bottom of 1700. Remember folks, this shit is priced nominally. Would preserve a "long term up-trend" / "healthy pullback" narrative.
I'm going with October 11th because that's NATIONAL COMING OUT DAY!!!
So will be you be coming out or did you do it last year?
Says the guy asking for a man's lips on hiis body.
Think about it! If the current actions of theft, deception, and trickery were virtues then thieves, liars and deceivers would be shouting from the rooftops, Yes, I stole from you, deceived you and tricked you and you are welcome! Well, obviously they're not virtues so you can count on things collapsing...
& Regarding
"the date:"
I repeat an overview that I just published under the previous: 8 Reasons Why The Telegraph Thinks The Market Doomsday Clock Is One Minute To Midnight
Given that the political economy is based upon governments ENFORCING FRAUDS by privately controlled banks, and therefore, the political economy actually operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, it makes sense to me that those events which transpire in the future will continue to closely correspond to the calendar preferred by the culture which currently constitutes the best organized gangs of criminals, that have the most control over that kind of political economy. ...
Overall, I stand by the view that the only things which actually exist are the dynamic equilibria between different systems of organized lies operating robberies, and that, therefore, better political processes would necessarily be better dynamic equilibria between better systems of organized lies operating robberies. However, right now, the best previous systems of organized crime are suffering from having become too successful, for too long. Hence, their overshoot, and subsequent collapses into chaos ... Of course, throughout those processes, those who were the previously best organized gangs of criminals will surely strive to continue to be so. The most likely calendar of events will follow their preferred calendar, rather than any other. Therefore, the most probable sequence of dates will continue to correspond to the SHEMITAH, as the first comment under this article already stated.
I'm betting the Dow down to 10000+-
Dow/Gold ratio to 1 ... or less.
Dow and gold will both be at 105,000. 1:1 ratio.
The date 9/11/2001 is written ALL over the world 11/9/2001 EXCEPT in the USA.
So its actually 119 that was that day, not 911.
If you think I am being petty try doing business with an American company in Europe or Asia that sends you spreadsheets dated month first. when the rest of the world uses month SECOND. and day first.
119= CIA/Mossad job
Huh? Windows applications use the regional settings on your system to display dates and times in any format you care for. Do you actually work or is this just dumb conjecture on your part?
So what Julian date is 15 October 2015?
I am looking forward to all the asswipes who are in the market, blow their brains out or jump out of tall buildings.
There are millions of almost 65 yr olds that have every penny in a retirement fund tied up in there. When it drops it's going to hurt a lot of mom's & dad's.
So will it be jumping out of tall building or blowing brains out?
Second week of September 2015, AKA the Shemitah.
I don't believe in all that reglion bullshit, but the racketeering cabal love using religion as an excuse to fuck shit up for the plebes. That's when I'll expect something big to happen.
August 31 11:05 AM
August 31 11:07 am
GREECE is gone, and PUERTO RICO is gone. A bunch of other countries are shaky, and that includes a number of countries who are OUTSIDE the major banking systems. The countries that are on the "outside" will collapse first, because there is NO-ONE who is propping them up. Then the debt will get kicked back to the banks in the First World - and they can't handle it.
THERE IS NO PRE-PLANNED DATE.
The System isn't that stupid.
The Fed and the ECB are not planning on selling their houses and moving into one-room studios with no electricity or Internet. They will play this Game ... until things fall apart completely. And then suddenly it will be .... WOW!! Big Surprise. WE NEVER SAW THIS COMING.
But nobody knows when.
Well stated Primal.
Primalscream has no sense of history.
History repeats itself. It wasn't Cypress that was the first, nor Ecuador, Venezuela, or Argentina, nor was it the whole of the South American Cone that was subverted by Economists dubbed "Chicago Boys" and evidence of the Catholic Universities involvement in Coups in 1960s-1970s in South America is probably not the first time.
But we all tend to only see our 20 years or 40 years of history.
Chile', Mexico, Brazil, Peru, Colombia, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Panama, Ecuador, Venezuela, or Argentina, Cypress, Greece, Porto Rico... PIIGS, plus Nederlands and United Kingdom... Then US Municipalities & US States.
9/27. 9-2=7. Doesn't everyone know this is the date ???
LOL
9/16 = 9+1+6 = 16 = 1+6 = 7
or
9/17/2015 = 17+8 = 25 = 2+5= 7
Yeah that's the ticket, 9/17/2015!!!
It happened Yesterday People!! Wall Street still didn't figure it out.
Any interest rate approaching a market rate will collapse the equties bubble in epic fashion. Zero cost of borrowing has fueled a no lose carry trade for the elites. If capital begins to have a cost above zero, the whole leveraged equites play goes away.
Question, can the fed hold interest rates at negative for ever? If not, then the day they can't hold it below zero is the day the markets implode, and they will implode fast, because each elite fraud master will know the others will want to leave him holding the equites bag. It could crash in one epic day, except markets will be closed at the first sign of this correction picking up speed
We have already seen corrections based on the prosepects of a minor rate increase. Any real increase will implope it.
Investors all watch the Fed, the Fed is everything to them, because theu know the artificial nature of this epic fraud market bubble!
John Rockefeller and Bernard Baroch exited the Stock Market in 1929 just before the orchestrated collapse, run on banks, and collapse of 16,000 US Banks.
I'm just guessing that we should see something like this going on. There have been a handful of stories, and some stories of Billionaires getting into gold. I'm just not sure this is enough. The USA has changed, Structures have Changed, there are Frontmen in Banking, there is private banking, there are institutional investors...
I think you should see an exit from Institutional Investors if the rates are going up. I'm not an Investor, but think Institutions that are big are going to have inside dope to let them know.(exit both stocks and bonds)
so btfd then?
I see a long slow taxed to the hilt defaltionary grind
over 30 odd years as the USA slowly becomes Mexico
and China slowly becomes the financial capital of the World.
When the USA collapses, it will be fast like the Soviet Union, not slow.
Does anyone have a solution to the worlds economic problems?
Yes, prohibit ANY kikes from having ANY control/influence over ANY facet of it what so ever.
An Asteriod.
not a painless one
ENRON ACCOUNTING TECHNIQUES.
Affordable Care and Patient Act (ObamaSnare) accounting; there fixed it.
Somebody forgot to tell the economic professors to tell their students that you cant keep growing forever.
Like a fish in a fish bowl you can only grow to a certain size.
Opps! sorry. Thats too easy to understand.
This time I agree, market is going to snap tomorrow with the FOMC. Short it now, close it on thursday
FOMC statement: Surprise, Surprise, Surprise!!!
Wrong Wrong Wrong
the average age of enlarged prostates here at ZH is older than the Greek bailout build up.
Perhaps you've heard of the infestation of migrants into Europe, transiting the Mediterranean?
Well, just as Reagan bought Laffer's Supply Side Economics, the Negro recently bought some neocon's Demand Side Economics.
If you flood a nation or group of nations with unemployed migrants, some of them will have brought money, some of them will find work, some of them will steal and rob.
But all of them will drink beer, eat cheese burgers, buy toothpaste and underwear. Some have money and will pay for this. And charities will pay for those who can't. (Printed money may fall into the laps of some.)
But demand for necessities and thingies will rise. Profits will rise. GDPs will rise.
The noodlman who thought this up is a slimeball scumbag.
As if I had to tell you.
I think it's because everyone is getting spooked about every last person who is running for U.S. president.
It's like..."Oh shit! I can't make up my mind who I am gonna vote for to prevent that guy from becoming president!"
St. Louis FED's Williamson Quote would tend to say Volkers High Interest Rates of the 1970s caused inflation... other than the effects of Nixon Shock and Gas Crisis.
"In Williamson's view, that's a product of policymakers wed to the Taylor rule, which dictates the level of interest rates in regard to economic conditions.
Specifically, he believes the zero interest rates in place since 2008 that were designed to spark good inflation actually have resulted in just the opposite."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/18/st-louis-fed-official-no-evidence-qe-boos...
https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2015/2015-015.pdf
It must be a game. After 1920, after 1929, after 1937, and after even Reagan Era.
Given the topic of this article, perhaps I should post the following comment here. Some friends of mine just decided to create a safe-as-possible place to live within the evil empire. I think that's crazy, but one half of the couple doing this simply refuses to move anywhere English isn't common. Since all primarily English speaking nations are part of the wider evil empire, they decided to find the best place they could within its borders.
The place they chose is excellent, all things considered.
Warm weather and sunshine all year long, which means perfect for solar-power and growing organic gardens and raising free range chickens for eggs and meat all year long.
On an island in the middle of an ocean, so they are completely isolated from the wandering hordes of starving folks when the SHTF. This is not true of all islands of course, since islands like Oahu, Maui, Kauai and others host hundreds of thousands of residents and grow little food. But this island is fairly large and only has 5000~7000 residents, zero traffic lights, two tiny towns, zero big-box stores or even name-brand stores like "Safeway". The residents are so rabidly anti-development they've prevented development for decades. They've seen what happens to the lifestyle when tropical islands are "developed". The lifestyle goes to hell.
So when the SHTF, they'll be self-sufficient and as outta-sight, outta-mind as is possible within the evil empire except for very harsh places like remote Alaska.
The property they're buying (and looking for 2 or 3 partners to collaborate) looks and feels nothing like what people would normally think of as a "bolthole" or "escape plan" or "cabin in the woods". It already has solar-energy, water-collection and 10,000 gallons of water storage and productive fruit and nut trees. So it is well on its way to self-sufficiency. They plan to plant heirloom seed organic gardens sufficient to feed 10 people (including some free-range chickens on the property for eggs and meat). There are wild food sources too, like deer and wild pigs, but they do not consider that a reliable source in any SHTF scenario.
Since the all time low and high temperatures are 55F and 88F, and the weather is rarely outright humid, the heat and AC systems are truly optional... never needed. And food grows crazy in such a warm and sunny environment, so food production is much easier and less problematic here than most places (no need to jar/can/store food for winter).
The totally insane part of this story is this. The property their buying is directly on a 2~3 mile long white sand beach next to eternally tropical waters (80F). Endless tropical fish and coral reefs, perfect for world-class snorkel and scuba. Though some food fish and other seafood are available next to the beach, enormous quantities of some of the most delicious fish are available a bit further offshore (requires at least a small vessel). So this is another source of food.
But the point I keep trying to get to is... living here is freaking paradise. This 2~3 mile long white sand beach typically contains zero human beings. The entire area is almost devoid of human activity... though there is a small cluster of perhaps 100 condo buildings with 3~5 units each a few miles north. But most are empty except when owners come for vacation, so that's a very slow pace "sleepy town" too. So usually the beach near the condos only contains 3 or 4 people. The entire island is almost no-mans-land, almost like some "after the nuclear war" movie. And everyone tends to be relaxed and happy, so... good start. Oh, plus, this place is "at the far end of the island", as far as possible away from 99% of the dinky population of 5000~7000. And this is not a tiny island... maybe 40 miles long and roughly 250 square miles?
Oh, and what they're buying isn't just a parcel of land. It contains a huge 4 bedroom, 4 bathroom home that is divided into 3 separate structures connected by a covered outside deck. The home is beautiful... mostly gorgeous hardwood, very high quality throughout. Plus a large game/entertainment room downstairs that could easily become 2 more bedrooms and a bathroom. Plus an outdoor shower for rinsing off sand from the beach. Plus a workshop and 2 car garage. Plus a tennis court... give me a break! This is like life of the rich and famous in paradise!
Their plan is to have 3 or 4 partners, perhaps some of whom don't live there until and unless the SHTF. Each would need to invest just under $400K to buy this place cash. Or just $80K to $120K each for 20% down payment, plus $2000 or $3000 per month mortgage payments. But... here is another really cool kicker. Unless most of the partners move in immediately, they plan to run the place as a B&B. Turns out, there is a similar 4br, 4ba home that vacation rents further down the exact same beach, and yearly revenue appears to be roughly $120K per year. That's more than the freaking mortgage payments! So, quite possibly, the partners would rarely if ever need to pay any mortgage payments. How cool is that?
Up to 2 more homes can be constructed on the parcel according to rules. Also, the parcel is classified as "farm parcel" and so property tax is only 0.15%. About half what the dinky drywall 2br2ba condos 3 miles north pay!
I love their plan. Well, except personally I would never stay within the evil empire. Nonetheless, I've noticed a great many folks want to have a great SHTF plan, but don't feel comfortable outside the gulag. This place is about as perfect as anywhere could be for such folks. Perfect for self-sufficiency, as outta-sight and outta-mind as anywhere in the evil empire can be, the best weather a human being can find on planet earth, and the best environment too (beachfront on tropical waters). Wow.
So, I mention all the above in case someone here has been looking for an "easy way" to prepare safe, secure and comfortable digs for when the SHTF arrives... or is simply ready to get the hell outta dodge now... in style!
If so, reply below for more information and/or to get in contact with the folks implementing this project. For everyone with no plans or preparations... good luck to you! Very soon, you're gonna need it.
Does Gilligan still live there?
Do you know anyone/or have you ever been to Nigeria by any chance?
Agree with your sentiment. Even if it is true, I think I'll pass. I'll take my chances where I am, possibly move to Alaska.
Honestly, if I don't survive the reset I'm ok with that. As long as a made a good try of it, I can die without regret. My wide agrees with me. We will do what we can until we can do no more. What we won't do is rob or terrorize innocent people to survive. I have limits.
If I died right now it would be without shame or regret. Maybe instead of building exotic retreats at the end of the earth, you should focus on coming to terms with your own death? It is inevitable you know.
You guys are in the vast majority, and that makes most people happy whatever happens. So pro-active actions like what I describe are definitely for a tiny minority. You're right about that.
Sounds too perfect. There must, at least, be some mosquitoes or alligators there?
Hahaha. No alligators. Rarely a mosquito, because that part of the island is the "desert side". I once visited this location, maybe 8 years ago, and it truly is a wonderful area, and extremely quiet and peaceful.
I suppose the downside is, if you love lots of action big-box-stores, or shopping malls, you're on the wrong island. But you can take a ferry to an island with pretty much everything (population 150,000), or you can take a $130 round-trip flight to an island with a city of hundreds of thousands, and literally shop enough shops and tourist traps to make a shopping addict die from exhaustion.
The world economy is too big to fail.
too big not to fail
you forgot the not
that's what diminishing returns is all about.
1929
After years of foreplay, I'm sure I'm not the only one who is ready for the pathic world to self-fornicate...
Here is why gold prices are so low:
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/07/20/dear-fed-plz-raise-gold-price/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices/
Here are some more signs of a coming recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record...
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
Your name wouldn't be Mike would it?
But....I heard it's September 23rd...
Maybe it doesn't have to end.
If the People Bail-out the Banks, the Banks can Bail-out the Government and the Government Bail-out the People. How could it not work !!
Which is totallly differnet to today where the People Bail-out the Government and the Government Bails-out the Banks, and the buck stops here.
The little people are the final payor or debtor. They do not want to bail them out.
The FED bought so much toxic mortgage junk from Freddie, Fannie and all other Dark Pool investors in Housing Bonds, that those bonds will be held to maturity by the FED and never again be sold in the markets.
The FED is the biggest and hidden pool of all. They only announse the size of their balance sheet, which may be bogus.
You would be surprised how much have been sold back to banks/brokerage houses and parked in funds labelled "Government Bond Funds" exclusively marketed to 401ks.
And thanks for a sensible post in this fucking cesspool.
The end is near .... I just bought 100 one troy ounce copper coins .... from APMEX .... $98 bucks shipped .... if times get tough .... I´ll chop them into pieces of eight .... on a tree stump .... with an axe and a sledge hammer ?
9/17/2015
9 8 8
9 16
9 7
16
7
9/8/2015
17 8
8 8
16
7
9/26/2015
9 8 8
9 16
9 7
16
7
That is why it is called the month of September!
Sept nothin' is happening.
O/T Bloody bad news for cheaters:
"Gigabytes worth of data taken during last month's hack of the Ashley Madison dating website for cheaters has purportedly been published online—an act that, if true, could prove highly embarrassing for the men and women who have used the service over the years.
A 10-gigabyte file purportedly containing e-mails, member profiles, credit-card transactions and other sensitive Ashley Madison information became available as a BitTorrent download in the past few hours. Ars downloaded the massive file and it appeared to contain a trove of details taken from a clandestine dating site, but so far there is nothing definitively linking it to Ashley Madison. User data included e-mail addresses, profile descriptions, addresses provided by users, weight, and height. A separate file containing credit card transaction data didn't include full payment card numbers or billing addresses."
http://arstechnica.com/security/2015/08/data-from-hack-of-ashley-madison...
Hey what me worry? If the derivatives blow there is no problem because if memory serves me correctly, the liability on the Ds were shifted from the banks to the US taxpayer in the cromnibus spending bill? So no problem, we the people, well the working people that is, we have the banks backs on the derivatives. We are all rich right?
Bitcoin takes a huge shit today (over 15%) and ZH is silent on the event...
I can't stand Bitcoin stories but this one is the first one to matter in a while.
Jesus this site used to be somewhat sane.
What the fuck happened here?
I can find more cohesion between Crips and Bloods.
Incompetence is not just for Governments but not seems to be widespread amongst the elite; business, banking and political.
Let's have a look at the banking sector:
Bernanke looked at the 1930s to see the problems caused by banks failing.
He did not look at Japan, after 1989, when it hid banks losses and bailed them out, the economy never recovered.
Better to deal with the cause than the effect.
The real problem, bankers don't understand their product, debt.
“What is wrong with lending more money into the Chinese stock market?” Chinese banker before last month
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” Chinese banker last year
"What is wrong with lending more money to Greece?" European banker pre-2010
"What is wrong with a NINA (no income no asset) mortgage?" US banker pre-2008
“What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?” US banker pre-2008
"What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?" Irish banker pre-2008
"What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?" Spanish banker pre-2008
"What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?" Japanese banker pre-1989
"What is wrong with lending more money into real estate?" UK banker pre-1989
“What is wrong with lending more money into the US stock market?” US banker pre-1929
We need to teach bankers the lost art of prudent lending and the importance of fundamentals, eg. ratio of mortgage size to income; ratio of national debt to GDP and age old metrics for valuing companies based on performance.
I have a strong hunch the USA will be a hard place to be. Too much social division, too many guns, too many people like 'Pope' from 'Falling Skies' and too much nasty Govt ie Fema, NSA etc.
Im in Au. Not without problems....but.
Get outa the USA if you can.
Good advice. I left a few years ago and am now living in NZ. As you state, not perfect but orders of magnitude better.
The Fed has never been audited. Why would you believe the Fed debt was only 4.5 Trillion. Figures provided during the 2008 crash were closer to 24 trillion.
Fonestar is still living in his Mom's attic. I live in my Mom's basement. However, my Mom is not thinking of evicting me because the house is worth 2.5 million and some Chinese want to buy it. That must be why Fonestar is acting crazy.
I'll laugh if we make it to the end of the year and no significant financial event occurs.
Things tend to break down slowly rather than collapse quickly.
It was a Rothschild who said he got rich by selling too soon.
Im not convinced that the future is as apocalyptic as starving zombies wandering the streets looking to eat human flesh.. thats simply too much Hollywood,.
We have to be realistic however. If there is a collapse which even MSM is starting to cover, there will be bad times. In Ireland we suffered some severe events, a famine 150 odd year ago which halved our population and send millions to build the US. We had British invasions, we had the Northern Troubles and recently we suffered the largest economic collapse in living memory - the point im trying to make, notwithstanding all of the above, we still got on with things, and many People profited (some legally some not so) but Life goes on. We found ways to survive and some to prosper.
Any collapse that does come will be terrible for many; for others it may perhaps give them the leg up.
I often use the Forest Gump Shrimping boat story i.e. not until the storm wrecked everything did Buba shrimp prosper! So while running away to a desert Island may be attractive,.... very few have that option. so instead we have to find ways to protect ourselves.
http://www.teamramgold.com/about-us/ if you are interesed in joining me in karatbars
Well apart from Shamitah...Eid ul Adha (muslim festival of sacrifice) is also falling on 23rd of Sep 2015. Coincidence?