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Stocks Soar Into The Green As Question Emerges: "Rate Hike Or QE4 First?"
It appears that the Fed's cunning plan to hike rates so it can cut rates was just foiled once again.
Moments ago stocks have soared into the green for the day in an epic algo stop run as 'traders' weigh the words amid the FOMC Minutes. The crucial sentence is "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff’s as-sessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks." This suggests the possibility of a monetary reaction (QE4) if external shocks occur even before they have had a chance to raise rates.
Here is a sample of the litany of FOMC notices that suggest that far from a rate hike, the US economy is more likely to see QE4 first!
Some participants also dis-cussed the risk that a possible divergence in interest rates in the United States and abroad might lead to further appreciation of the dollar, extending the downward pres-sure on commodity prices and the weakness in net ex-ports
* * *
The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside, reflecting the staff’s as-sessment that neither monetary nor fiscal policy was well positioned to help the economy withstand substantial adverse shocks
* * *
a few participants observed that although GDP growth appeared to have picked up in recent months rel-ative to the first-quarter pace, the level of GDP re-mained lower than had been projected earlier in the year
* * *
a couple of participants were concerned about the outlook for consumer spending, noting that spending had been dis-appointing in recent months even though real income had already been boosted by the lower gasoline prices and the improved labor market.
* * *
a few participants were concerned that the further decline in oil prices that had occurred in recent weeks might continue to hold down energy-related investment. In addition, government spending was expected to add very little to growth in aggregate spending this year.
* * *
The ongoing rise in labor demand still appeared not to have led to a broad-based firming of wage increases... it was noted that considerable uncertainty remained about when wages might begin to accelerate and whether that development might translate into increased price inflation.
* * *
While the recent Chinese stock market decline seemed to have had limited implications to date for the growth outlook in China, several participants noted that a material slow-down in Chinese economic activity could pose risks to the U.S. economic outlook
* * *
considerable uncertainty remained about when wages might begin to accelerate and whether that development might translate into increased price inflation
It gets better:
Participants generally continued to anticipate that, with appropriate monetary policy, inflation would move up
But... didn't the St. Louis Fed just admit the US wasted 7 years on making the rich richer and boosting wealth inequality to record levels, while doing nothing at all for the economy?
And the puncline:
Some participants expressed the view that the incoming information had not yet provided grounds for reasonable confidence that inflation would move back to 2 percent over the medium term and that the inflation outlook thus might not soon meet one of the conditions estab-lished by the Committee for initiating a firming of policy. Several of these participants cited evidence that the response of inflation to the elimination of resource slack might be attenuated and expressed concern about risks of further downward pressure on inflation from international developments. Another concern related to the risk of premature policy tightening was the limited ability of monetary policy to offset downside shocks to inflation and economic activity when the federal funds rate was near its effective lower bound.
Most judged that the conditions for policy firming had not yet been achieved, but they noted that conditions were approaching that point.
Right, just like in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and so on.
Market reaction: initial kneejerk lower to take out the downside stops, followed by a furious blast higher for the remaining stops.
Of course this could simply be an algo stop run, which fades momentarily alongside the last trace of Fed credibility.
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QE forever
No rate normalization during my lifetime Bernanke
Besides, how can the US increase interest rates with Federal debt at $210 trillion or over $1,720,000 per taxpayer?
"QE forever, dollar to the moon, silver to the fracking wells" - Bernank
< QE4
< Rate hike
Wassup?
Neither. They are in a box paralysed at this point and utterly fucked. All they have is jawboning and if today is any idication, regreatably still works for them.
Jawboning and massive intervention?
Why worry about rates, QE, debts, etc...
.
When something wicked this way will come soon to interrupt all this financial horseshit...
I dropped my wallet and had to pick it up, so I missed the green bit. Anybody get a picture?
it seems incredible that this is what our formerly great country has come to
Stealth QE. Books shmooks.
Von Havenstein isn't out of ammo.
Or both? Screw borrowers while juicing the TBTJail banks some more.
This shit's hilarious. They're actually cheering that we're sliding back into recession.
Sliding? Back?
You'll never find a global warming alarmist who is happy about the nearly 20 year long pause in warming either...
There is a word for that..........
..oh yeah - denial.
That's a very kind word...
There changing the movement name next year officially to "Climate Disruption"
I will translate for my ZH friends - It means that now that the whole movement has been exposed as a false theory and horrific scam, there will be a "Disruption" in the global warmers monetary gravy train...
WTF difference do interest rates make right now, anyway? China is imploding. What can the Fed do about that?
Mass mayor hangs Black Lives Matter banner from city hallhttp://tinyurl.com/osva9ud
fully agree, of course. market rally is HFT stop-running anyway. 99.9% certain that wont last until the close...
that's right, suckers. QE is a promise. so, dive in with greed, but be prepared for the paper bonfire to follow.
Death to the USD....Please.
DOW 32,000
"""markets"""
The FED has turned the markets and price discovery into a farce and not a leaf stirred in Washington.
"Price discovery" is now defined as an incident where someone hacked into the Fed's emails...
Gawd I'd swear that looks like Candy Loving...
Gawd I'd swear that looks like Candy Loving...
This candy Loving?
Now where was I?
Trying the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. This country is run by complete idiots.
They don't expect different results. They expect TPTB to get rich. That has happened and will continue to happen. The use of charts and graphs are to sell the idea to the sheeple.
Of course there will be QE4. Duh!!!! Even if they raise rates, it will be a gesture to make it appear the emperor has clothes, and it will quickly be reversed at the next meeting.
The FED = clueless. Time to end the FED.
But they sound so smart when they speak, I know I don't understand what they are saying so they must know what they are doing.
This'll all end well. I can hardly wait to find out how soon we'll reach official FED Nirvana.....
Any meaningful rate hike will require a full-blown currency crisis first. By then, it may be too late to save the dollar.
Politicians and bankers will never proactively do the right thing. They will always kick the can until there is no road left.
It's too bad political courage can't be conjured out of thin air like Obama-bucks. It seems to be non-existent in Washington.
Its there, it just gets ignored by the media and the congressmen and Senators that try to do something are punished by the leadership. Jones of, North Carolina comes to mind. Boehner needs to go.
=If("algo stop run"<>"ilegal and criminal",NY FED and buddies, Go to jail)
SEMICOLON! Forgot the semicolon. How many times I hafta tell ya?
The muted reation on the VIX has me scratching my head, and a bit concerned that Sep is going to be a ball buster.
So, CPI comes out and stocks tank. Who knows why. ambiguous is enough to signal a rate hike is coming.
Hours later, the FED minutes are "leaked" and indicate no rate hike. So, stocks rip every short's face off.
Of course, there is no real volume, and this is all HFT's feeding on each other.
must be some goldman execs that still hadnt made enough to retire in style yet.
Dow up 130+ points in 5 minutes?!
COMPLETELY NATURAL!!
I can't take it anymore....Fucking blow up already!!
NSA - I mean blow up as in the stock markets, not actual blowing anything up....just to clarify.
Good save. That drone already had missile lock on your ass.
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/ba0cc80eec/nsa-wiretapping-public-service-announcement?_cc=__d___&_ccid=nz9w2t.ntcedd
Inshallah...
Becareful man the thought police are everywhere.
You forgot the little tag line 'bait' we used to end with many moons ago on usenet/rec.politics and alt.conspiracy. If any of you oldsters out there remember those days and have that closing tag line (about a paragraph's worth if I remember correctly), please feel free to chime in...
Off the top of my head, it went something like this:
- NSA/CIA/MK-ULTRA/MI-6/Plutonium/Deuterium/Cesium/Yellow-cake/Project Northwoods/JFK/Waco/Ruby Ridge/etc., ad-infinitum...
No market implosion for you. In the worst case the exchanges can impose China Syndrome and ban all selling activity. Presto! Market fixed.
Gold is capped at today's mandate of +1%, or just under $1130 spot. All is right.
GOOGLE loses data as lightning strikes storage center
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-33989384
Caption: Google call me I'm and expert at wiping things
http://truthinmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Hillary.jpg
God: don't be evil.
Stocks, down in the morning, up in the afternoon.
QE4 requires US gov bond issuance - requires Congress to approve.
Not sure this will happen under barry's remaining time.
And with unemployment at 5%, why are retail numbers pure shit??? Even useless finance media has stopped with the growth fraud/lie.
The fat lady (not the cunt running the Fed) is warming up - tuck and roll.
Who Yellen? Or one of the SCOTUS butch lesbians?
Agreed, Barry blew his nut, they won't give him a dime more.
The only time that the US government didn't issue bonds was....NEVER. The 2016 budget will have another $400 to $500 billion in bonds to issue.
If the FED has trouble finding any tbills, I'm sure the social security "trust fucking" will be happy to sell some, or maybe the Chinese or Russians will sell some to get out. Hell, we might even expand World War III to create the debt needed for another couple trillion in QE.
...but they noted that conditions were approaching that point.
from wiki: an asymptote of a curve is a line such that the distance between the curve and the line approaches zero as they tend to infinity.
top ticked it again Tyler, uncanny
More bread and circus.
The pain of the fall will be epic for the many.
Easy for the few.
Just another transition, a new matrix.
This isn't how God runs heaven.
There is a little more consistency up there.
Still waiting for QE99.
Lol. Just like the release of a new videogame console. PlayStation 1, PS2, PS3, now we have the PS4...so QE4 is long overdue to keep up with the cycle. go get ready for QE4, when does the PS5 come out? Interesting new indicator lol.
What's the worry when 'everyone else is doin' it'...?
'$80B/month 'temporary' until December when we can better evaluate the overall picture and begin to normalize rates'. Hey - they did mention at one time that the $policy option 'tool' was always there at the ready, just in case...
That wore-off quick. Weird...
Zero chance of a rate hike. A 100% chance of QE4. Round-robin global devaluation of fiat.
the entire rate hike threat was an employment of the old theoretical inflation/rate hike fear will increase buying today because things will be more expensive tomorrow. it looks like it didn't work. lol.
maybe people need money to spend before they can spend it. they have apparently forgotten that part of the theory.
that's really odd even for ppt. looks like a shark fin
https://finance.yahoo.com/
Why don't they just go full Zimbabwe already? This is getting old. Yawn.