This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Existing Home Sales Extrapolation Surges To Highest Since Feb 2007
By the miracle of NAR extrapolation and seasonal adjustment, the SAAR Existing Home Sales data just printed 5.59mm units - the highest since Feb 2007. Sales were dominated by increases in The West and The South with The Northeast falling. We have two questions for NAR - where are the buyers coming from... and how long is this sustainable?
What's wrong with this picture?
Some other data from the NAR: median prices.
Where the sales were:
Months of Supply
What were the prevailing home prices:
And sales change by price bucket:
In other words, a whole of all-cash purchases in... the South. Sure. And for more comedy here is a brief history of the NAR's spin, fabrication and outright manipulation of all housing data it can get its hands on.
»
- 16474 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Great time to buy!
If the Fed, prior to blowing bubbles, would’ve practiced on blow-up dolls, they would’ve known what happens to an inflatable beauty when you leave the air pump running for too long. ;-)
Looney
Just like the last bubble, they are rehabbing houses like crazy down here in Florida...
Add in the "fog the mirror" lending standards with the originate to sell loan sharks, should pretty much be a rhyme with 07-08. Someone said $15 a barrel oil on the radio, if that happens, it will be a deflationary shock that the world has never seen... but we'd at least have $1 gas...
Anyone that believes these statistics needs to do a reality check...
Not all mortgages are issued through Mortgage Bankers. The disconnect featured by Tyler Durden could be due to that.
Here are the NSA sales in YoY percent change:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1F7c
People front-running anticipated increases in mortgage rates?
Dank Vader - This is correct. Fannie Mae is a huge lender and is public, not private. There is a small segment of private investors that lend also. While I agree with many people on many threads on statistics being manipulated to pimp confidence this one looks pretty close to reality. I call em as I see em boys.
They are shiny as long as the Chinese keep buying $1,000,000 tar paper shacks on the west coast.....
I was just in Florida. Units that sold pre bubble at 550k were not being bought for 330k today. And there were 52 of 320 units on the market and ready to be bought.
If oil drops to 15 a barrell, we will have fuel shortages. Then the price will rise and we will have fuel.
No one will keep producing for long at a loss. unless they are backed by the government.
It's no more a deflationary "shock" than the falling price of cell phone service.
"Just like the last bubble, they are rehabbing houses like crazy down here in Florida..."
Yep. Coastal Florida here and I've worked on a couple of them. Asking prices are again significantly higher than actual value.
I agree, I know three mirror foggers that purchased in the last six months.
Good times are here again...
The article and stats are not comedy. I live here in Fort Myers Florida. You had really bad winters up in the Northeast the last couple of years while the Boomers are downsizing and heading South. Older folks prefer warm weather and where I am for a nice place WAS cheap just eight months ago. You could get a place in nice neighborhood, 3 bed 2 bath and pool for $135k. Those same kind of places are now close to $200k. It WAS a great place for property rentals. Now the return isnt worth the risk.
Unlike 2007 this is a migration. Is it bubble territory? Yep, the beginning of one. However, 2007 lending standards are tighter and as a mass migration correction will be more in the 20% range as a guess.
I have decided to head up north to the White Mountains early. I hate it here. Too hot, overcrowded, minorities and crime. And nice areas in bubble as mentioned. I moved here because it was way more business friendly than NH. Now all that discrimination tax racket is creeping in. Lots of liberalism with this colonization cycle like MA people coming to NH and ruining it. A bunch of you know exaxtly what I am talking about.
May as well have a nice view and have a few grand aside for legal fees to likely deal with NH crazy police state politics and live where I want.
Though as far as local cops its far less an issue up north in NH. The traffic racket is more in south and denser population areas.
I have no idea how that's profitable. You can buy a lot of house in Florida for 70k.
Cost to fix a place up is similar throughout most of the country. Materials are basically the same (and flippers are always shooting themselves in the shin with their cheapness) and although labor varies it isn't super significant.
This is an example of one near my area
04/15/15 Sold $220,000
01/20/15 Sold: Foreclosure Auction $114,800
rehabbed for a little over 2 months, and from what i can tell they just ripped out all the flooring, laid tile, put granite on the counter tops in the kitchen, cleared the landscaping and repainted the exterior.
This was a foreclosure casualty from 2007-08 - i bet they HELOC'd up like a boss during the early 2000s
Worst time to buy.
There has never been a better time to be shystered.
Probably, I just put in a bid.
The buyers are Americans mortgaging their future income to banks. Oh and those people are idiots, just so you know.
Soul Glow - At least where I am the locals are now priced out of the market based on wages. You locals are screaming to high heaven as rents went from $750 average to $1,000.
This is all about your upper middle class retiring and migrating south. Lets say you have a house you bought around Boston or a place like Portsmouth NH in the late 70's or early 80's for $40,000. You just sold that for $500,000. Buying a nice place for $200,000 still seems like a bargain.
What really bugs me in regards your comment about banksters is seeing the subprime auto bubble. That there are millions of people paying $500 a month for a GM or Ford truck for six years is just insane.
The other people I dont feel bad for is retail investors acting like they know jack shit. I told me fiancee ten months ago to take out her money and put it into either a rental property (as I said it was good then in SW Florida) or if nothing else put it into gold and hold it for a few years.
Her Dad is in property management and is a bright guy just not educated on how Central Banking and our political system operates, 70 year cycles, etc. She told her that stocks were undervalued and if I felt differently I should then "short" the market. I had a debate with him a couple of times but I told my fiancee EVERY week to get out. She didnt look at her statement for a couple months on her fund. It just lost 25% in two months. She was in tears so of course I comforted her but secretly I was pissed. It effects me of course indirectly.
I told her "I love your Dad he is a nice guy but that is the LAST time you had ever listen to his advice on markets."
Buyers are coming from everywhere as people try to "move" their wealth into the "safety" of US real estate.
China is rumbling about all the money leaving its shores...
"More than half the known corrupt Chinese officials have transferred their illegal assets offshore and escaped to the US, Canada and Australia to avoid punishment, the Ministry of Public Security said."
CA is Flucked if China starts "repatriating" ill gotten assets located abroad...
Deals planned to recover illegal assets from abroadhttp://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/us/2014-12/29/content_19196310.htm
Bingo. Repatriation you say? Bullshit, no need. Sell all those treasuries and just buy the fucking country.
Print more Yaun, buy more treasuries, repeat...
"Ministry of Public Security"
Great name...I'm sure letters from the 'Ministry of Public Security' have resulted in more than few permanently stained pairs of underwear...
Who says that the rulers of the United States are not the heirs of the Bolsheviks? Who says that their plan is not to meld the financial resources of the world into world government? Who says that China, its economy and its resources have not been a part of the global plan of the families who own the Federal Reserve?
There is no longer a “safe haven” for people seeking freedom from Communism, there is now no place on earth to flee the Bolsheviks, there is now no place where the law will not be used to frame men who oppose or flee the State.
The United States government has become a partner in China’s fox hunt of people who would be free.
I quote from the article you cite:
The People's Bank of China is in discussions with the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a bureau under the US Treasury Department that monitors financial transactions to fight crime, said Zhang Xiaoming, deputy director-general of the ministry's legal assistance and foreign affairs department. Preparations are being made for a bilateral agreement to target assets that Chinese suspects hold overseas, Zhang said in an exclusive interview.
The central bank will also sign a similar agreement with the Australian Financial Intelligence Unit to monitor the suspicious flow of such assets, he said.
"After the agreements are made, China will share intelligence with the US and Australia, which will also offer information to their enforcement agencies to conduct further investigations," Zhang said.
"Once law enforcement officers in the US and Australia identify illegal funds, they will immediately initiate judicial procedures to freeze and confiscate those criminal proceeds in their countries."
More than half the known corrupt Chinese officials have transferred their illegal assets offshore and escaped to the US, Canada and Australia to avoid punishment, the Ministry of Public Security said.
Between 1990 and 2011, more than 18,000 corrupt officials fled overseas, transferring ill-gotten funds of up to 800 billion yuan ($128.5 billion), figures from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show.
In July, the Ministry of Public Security launched a special "Fox Hunt 2014" crackdown on economic fugitives who had fled overseas.
JR - I stated that Yuan becoming GRC is a feature not a bug. But here is the thing: Eventually you have competing interests. We're about 40-60 years away from literal immortality and being able to transform into light, go into and through 4D to any place in 3D.
Here is my point: That is the end of our human evolution. Until that time arrives, there are too many competitive, instinctual traits for a global Republic. And once one can really work, it will no longer matter. Basically, a true global Republic cannot be a reality.
Those at the top that understand where we are going as I stated it didn't realize we have one or two last major waves of evolution. They no longer take millions of years, or even hundreds, it is decades now.
What I envision is a bait and switch and Mexican stand-off situation. I think though that this period between China and the US wont last long. At times I have to remind myself we are all still playing king of the hill, international cooperation will break down at least one last time before we finish evolving. That is one of the reasons I hedge and am concerned.
Despite distaste of the state becoming too large, better for people to check out until this cycle subsides than see a WW3 with nukes and who knows what kind of weapons systems now. You keep pretending to pay people and they will pretend to work. Productivity dropping and more business deaths than births in the US demonstrate that is what is occuring
How life really works: When growth opportunities shrink at the top, then you see real reform. The electorate had no problem with lobbying for illegal aliens as long as there investments paid off. Now that southern states have started becoming ovverun with them and a few of Daddy's daughters have gotten raped and murdered (like Mexico) whoa, whoa whoa!!! In ither words the will of 300 M people can be ignored until it affects about 200 total (or less) in leadership.
Same with Vietnam. It wasn't the protests that ended it like I was led to believe. It was when legislation was passed to include politicians so s and daughters in the draft. And they only proposed and passed it after a few of there own sons and daughters died out of 50,000 men.
There are cycles of generational dynamics and corruption at certain levels of scale. When the most famous (or should I say infamous) lobbyist Jack Abrahoff goes on C-Span in December 2012 (or was it January?) and spends half hour saying we're off the rails in corruption, you know it must be way up there in corruption scale. Corrupt people in power amoungst nations wind up in conflict, always. Cooperation as said ends. I coukd explain all the details but this is a comment not a book report and is getting long in the tooth as it is.
The eCONomy is so good that everybody is paying cash!
You mean "There's never been a better time to buy!" ?
Black rock is stocking up on condos for the H1B visa holders.
Is it just me or is the Median Home Price chart a cut & past of the same cycle set on a inclined slope? I mean, I was in the biz for 10 years, I understand you never buy a house in June (because everyone else is) and wait til January due to price action... but... that chart shows that trend so clearly it seems unnatural.
It's as if something else was causing a slow creep in prices absent of demand... some sort of external force that is fairly constant...
Zillowed 3 miles around my house...1 in 5 properties are bank owned and not "on the market"..banks still sitting on a lot of houses...lots of money in banks...more money than they can find people to lend it to...since home prices always go up, it's great way to "store" deposits...
Yep! I own a nice homestead (pretty extravagant actually) and I am always looking for raw land to purchase witihn a few miles around my place. Yesterday I used Zillow to look to see if anything new was available and out of 12 homes on the market within 3 miles 7 of them are foreclosures....and I live in an area that is actually doing pretty good compared with other places.
Mortgage applications down sharply as homes sales surge. What would Sherlock Holmes say?
Maybe people found enough money in their couches that they did not need a mortgage?
In a year from now they will revise these down by 17% per month for each of the past 5 years. Or just like what they did in Oct 2011 for dear leader.
I don't believe any numbers put out by NAR. It's like finding a car you like and the tatted up sales guy says, "I got 3 or 4 people interested in this rig."
Buy now or get priced out!
"Where are these buyers coming from" - China. How's your mandarin? Yes, 'meric was sold down the river a long time ago...
Do these types of transactions count?
http://www.patriotledger.com/article/20150820/NEWS/150829517/0/breaking_...
Data point in the research triangle area: 4 homes in my hood, all sold at asking price within a week of going on the market. $550-$650k range. Lower priced homes move even faster. It's pretty crazy around here.
"It's pretty crazy around here."
Paid $116k for my house in 2009.."similar" homes are selling in 2015 for $225k...almost a double. It's all about that that monthly payment...the lower rates go, the more home prices increase....great for builders and banks...not so good for the buyers...although they're happy with their "affordable" monthly payment...
To clarify, these are about the same prices of the same homes in 2006-07. So, no big price appreciation, just selling fast.
Could the increase be from cash (no mortgage) investors purchasing homes for rental units?
Personally know people, first timers, that have jumped into the low end rental business...$$$$ signs in their eyes...wait till their renters fail to pay...lol...then trash the house after living in for free for months.
I don't understand how anyone wants to be a landlord...it's a special kind of crazy.
5X5 there Fire..just wait until corn fed Hurricane Gussie takes a dump and flushes an apple down the shidder along with a 6 pack of used rubbers and calls you at 3am cause her kitchen sink wont drain...I hope your friends have skinny arms, on account of they will need them to pull all sorts of booboo crap out of the plumbing to avoid a bill from a professional..if not, its a losing proposition..unless a guy is into being elbow deep in Hurricane Gussies colonic contents on a weekly basis..and some guys are..
These ads on ZH are getting ABSURD.
I cannot even read the title of the article on the homepage
And the pop up ads are just SILLY nuts
ZH, please get ur act together on this issue
U have jumped the shark
These ads on ZH are getting ABSURD.
1. Install FireFox web browser.
2. Go to Tools, add-ons
3. Search AdBlock.
4. Install AdBlock
5. No more ads.
Adblock also works with Google Chrome.
Then wipe it with , like a cloth or something.
huh? what ads? i dont see any ads
I don't see even one ad on this site. I've been using IE with the add-ons for ad blocking:
Easy Privacy
Easy List
Privacy Choice
Stop Google Tracking
With those four, I don't see many ads on any site at all, but there's zero here on ZH with these enabled.
Simple solution, I don't know why everyone doesn't use them instead of complaining. Hope that helps :)
Sandra - It shows there is room for a similar or better competitor. When I started my own gig I had people accusing me of selling out because I built an inclusionary design more along the lines of a publishing house and some felt capital, lenders, advertisers or politicians had no business being a part of it.
I am glad ZH is making money. I tried it without ads and so did ZH. There is no way to run a great blog with any kind volume on donations alone. Don't like ads? Donate!!! Want people trying to help the country to live in shacks and taxis forever? Servants need to make a living too and eventually and hopefully get some form of reward.
"The work is great but the servants are few. Call out to the harvestmaster and beg for more servants."
Guess what? That sounds awsome but ever wonder why the workers are so few? ZH compromised with capital. Whoop-dee do. How many of us go to work everyday doing the same? To me there is a difference of stepping on heads to get wealthy and providing value and getting rewards.
JP Morgan was an interesting fellow. Part of him really loved science, innovation and entrepenuarship. If Tesla had met him half way we would have wireless power by now. Want to really change the world and be a servant? Expect to compromise with capital. Christ was a carpenter. I bet he was good at it too. Think he sold fine furniture to poor people? Please...
I'd sell everything and buy an RV now.
Best post!...plus a machete..
........and a quad. gotta have a quad!
Q99x2. I had a relative that retired with a few bucks and did just that with his wife for almost twenty years. Happiest couple I ever met.
You know...
That gaping T-rex maw of a graph shown above is becoming a regular staple here on the Hedge - seemingly no matter the subject. Garsh, I sure hope nothing is wrong out there Grampa...
Banks, Trusts, Hedge Funds and astute (but fearful equity owners) selling quickly cause they know what's coming... Duh!!
Next step?
Buy more default insurance.
Cheers Muthers!!
NSM, Nationstar Mortgage, LLC, a continuing criminal enterprise, STILL has insiders selling their shitty company stock. Guess insiders know the massive lawsuits are coming. I mean more lawsuits than already in the pipeline.
Fortress Investment Group, famous for going long on Swiss cheese, have been struggling to keep up with chickens who pick stocks. Both companies run by greed confused idiots who are weak sister fuckers. Only explanation I can think of.
No wonder folks are pulling out of hedge funds. "Pulling out"...a great form of idiot control. Har-har.
Love to read the real estate "unicorn" news. Oh, Stantander is still a running fucking joke. They make loans to folks on the REZ and they wonder why they can't repo cars there! Too funny! Street signs on the REZ? Are you kidding me?
chinese are cashing out and saw that rental ROI in the us is higher than 3%. also, us housing is dirt cheap in comparison. for the corrupt officials, it was common practice to use straw buyers to purchase homes in the major cities, and then they are rented out with proceeds going to family members. but they are cracking down on all that and checking on who owns what. shift it to the us, and the chinese government has no way of knowing anymore.
Masters of the shell game. It's in the DNA.
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2015/embargoes/ehs-08...
NOT seasonally adjusted, sales dropped 3.5% m/o/m in July.
Nothing at all to see here. Please, move along.
NAR
Nothing Approaching Reality
Can't wait till So cal runs out of water and only cockroaches remain in the Chinese mcmancsions.