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No, Credit Growth In China Is Not "Surging"...
Back in May, the BEA officially jumped the shark when, to delighted cheers from the San Francisco Fed and Steve Liesman, it announced that going forward, US GDP data would be double seasonally adjusted.
Somewhere deep in the bowels of China’s National Statistics Bureau someone was probably chuckling under their breath at how long it took US statisticians to realize that the beauty of being in government is that you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say.
Indeed, for China (whose GDP growth is at best exaggerated due to an understated deflator and at worst is completely made up) going full-shark-jumping-retard means doing something so completely ridiculous that it hides in plain sight.
Something like loaning yourself a trillion yuan to prop up the stock market and then counting that trillion yuan loan towards credit growth.
Well as we reported not once, but twice (here and here), that’s exactly what China did in July when it reported that new RMB loans for the month nearly doubled expectations, coming in at CNY1.48 trillion and somehow, even though it was one of the worst kept secrets in the financial universe, some people actually believed the numbers. Case in point:
@Coffeeisforclo1 mini-boom may be too strong, but hard to square surging credit growth and money supply with imminent collapse
— A Evans-Pritchard (@AmbroseEP) August 20, 2015
Yes, "surging credit growth", only 60% of which is completely made up.
Here's a look a look at the breakdown for anyone who missed it earlier this month:
So what should be abundantly clear there is that loans to the real economy (i.e. loans China did not make to itself in the form of equity plunge protection funding) fell a staggering 55%. In case it isn't clear enough from the above how embarrassingly anomalous the "loans to non-banking financial institutions" figure is, allow us to break it down (again):
And because we somehow get the feeling that quite a few people might be missing the point on just how significant this was from a big picture point of view, here's a look at the data, with helpful arrows that demonstrate the effect of China's decision to include these loans:
Behold, the power of counting a trillion yuan in stock market manipulation money towards credit growth.
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Ahhh So!.....Exproding Ecronomee!
ahhhhhh wi tu fuked...................
They are just doing God's work, just ask Goldman Sacks.
doing gods work, to wreak havoc yes. Suck people in short again! May i remind you what happened back last year 2014. They got everyone short, the market rallied like 220 points. LOL.
This is probably next dip to buy.
There is so much bearishness out there right now, everyone thinking this market will crash to zero. However this guy from OZ ==> http://www.bit.ly/1fMcakI is saying look to the market psychology, as this might be a nice dip to buy soon, one could make off like a bandit!!!
High-correlation environments, like the markets have seen since the Great Recession and the Federal Reserve's aggressive intervention efforts, present challenges to active managers and those looking to employ diversified portfolios. Correlations among the S&P 500's 10 sectors peaked at 95 percent in 2011, meaning almost perfect movements in the same direction, according to Convergex, a New York-based brokerage.
I've always been a fan of AEP's columns, but that one was just surreal and so badly timed, too! Egg on face for him today!
I see nuttin.
China economics Animal House style...
https://youtu.be/_h4DZeBleLs
Maybe Steve Liesman should start a new series on CNBS on global warming 24/7/365.
The Central Global Warming Bank has all this under control people! Buy solar stawks with boaf hands!
Yeah, I can picture that...lol.
Just do the opposite of Lies-man and you're good to go.
Something like loaning yourself a trillion yuan to prop up the stock market and then counting that trillion yuan loan towards credit growth.
Just wait till they branch off into hedonics and the implied value is counted toward any growth...lol...its like paying for a high class "girl of the evening" (whatever the fuck that is) along with dinner, not getting sex, going home to beat off and somehow they try to convince you that you had a great time, even though you're hungrier now than you were this afternoon.
Its like phone sex spiked with MSG for filing all the appropriate paperwork.
Leaves ya with that empty feeling ;-)
Since March of 2009 you say? Well, thats disconcerting ;-)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-21/chinese-factory-gauge-...
All the U.S. equity futures are cratering out again. The DAX looks like it might move into the 9k handle over the next couple of days.
The DOW has moved through the 100 week avg. October of 2011 was the last time that happened.