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What Will It Take For The Fed To Panic And Bail Out The Market Once Again: BofA Explains
One of the main reasons a month ago we started carefully following the commodity trading giants, the Glencores, Mercurias and Trafiguras of the world...
Which will be first: Trafigura, Mercuria or Glencore
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) July 22, 2015
... is because nobody else was.
Perhaps due to their commodity-trading operations, these companies were expected to be immune from the mark-to-market vagaries of the commodity collapse on their balance sheet, and as such presented far less interest to market participants than pure-play miners whose stocks have gotten crushed since the commodity collapse and subsequent relapse.
And then, yesterday, Glencore "happened" and everyone was so shocked by the company's abysmal results, which as we explained may servce as "The Next Leg Of The Commodity Carnage: Attention Shifts To Traders - Glencore Crashes, Noble Default Risk Soars." This took place a day after we penned "Noble Group’s Kurtosis Awakening Moment For The Commodity Markets" in which we profiled the ongoing slow-motion trainwreck of Asia's largest commodity trader.
Of course, Glencore's problems should not have been reason for surprise: after all it was a bet on a surge in Glencore's default risk that prompted us to write "Is This The Cheapest (And Most Levered) Way To Play The Chinese Credit-Commodity Crunch?" in March of 2014 as a levered and relatively safe way to trade crashing copper prices (since then, Glencore CDS have doubled).
And so others started to notice.
So with Wall Street's attention suddenly focused, with the usual delay, almost exclusively on the commodity hybrids, it was none other than Bank of America which earlier today reserved a very special place for a possible collapse of these companies. In fact, the "credit event" (read "failure") of a company like Glencore is precisely what BofA's Michael Hartnett said "may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic."
Bank of America starts with a chart that ZH readers are all too familiar with: a comparison of the CDS of Noble and Glencore which as duly noted many times already, have recently spiked:
And here is why Bank of America decided to suddenly focus on a small subset of the commodity sector, one which we have been fascinated with for over a month: to BofA the collapse of either of these two companies is the necessary and/or sufficient condition for the Fed to exit its recent trance, and reenter and bailout the market.
That's right: Bank of America is begging for another Fed-assisted market bailout, which gladly hints would be accelerated should Glencore experience a premature "credit event." To wit:
Short-term, markets seem intent on forcing either the Fed to pass in September, or the Chinese to launch a more comprehensive and credible policy package to boost growth expectations. Alternatively, a credit event in commodities (note CDS is widening sharply for resources companies – front page chart) may be necessary to cause policy-makers to panic. Markets stop panicking when central banks start panicking. We think that is increasingly likely in September, thus arguing that risk-takers should soon look to add risk, particularly on any further weakness.
We thank Bank of America for making it quite clear what the catalyst for QE4 will be (and why we should double down on the Glencore long CDS trade), but we are confused: how is the Fed expected to "panic" in September when that is when BofA's crack economists predict the Fed will hike rates. If anything, a rate hike is supposed to calm the market and give confidence that the Fed is on top of the situation, even if as has been clearly the case, the US economy, not to mention the global one, are both going into reverse.
And while that is a major loose end to any trading thesis BofA may want to present, it does hedge by saying that all bets on a market bailout are off if the Fed and other central banks have now "lost their potency", i.e., if the market's faith in money printing has ended.
Finally, we believe the inexorable rise in volatility as QE programs wane leads to the ultimate risk. In our view, all investment strategies have been tied in recent years to the power of central banks. There are few bond vigilantes willing to punish profligate governments, fewer currency speculators willing to defy central bank intervention, and investors have become adept at front-running policy-makers and/or expecting central banks will “blink” at signs of market volatility. We believe a loss of central bank potency is an unambiguous risk-off.
Indeed, we too believe that if not even central banks can boost this market, then the time to get the hell out of Dodge is at hand. And while exiting, make sure to have a lot of gold, silver and lead. Because if the days of Keynesian voodoo and fiat are almost over, then absolutely nobody has any idea what lies ahead.
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the question isnt rather or not the fed/govt will be forced into another bailout,(thats inevitable) the question is rather or not it will lead to irrivocable damage to the dollar worldwide. We are in a pretty unique situation right now, we create currency out of thin air, and the rest of the world gives us precious commodities for it. It won't last forever
Bailout? you mean bail-in....The bankers will try anything to get the money that they believe is theirs. We need to end the fed. Until then, we are slaves to their system. Support the only candidate who wants to end the fed and their schemes!
I am selling candles with silver coin prizes: https://www.etsy.com/shop/ScentSavers?ref=hdr_shop_menu
Every candle sold now through September 7th will go to support the Rand Paul moneybomb on September 7th! Rand is the only one with the anti-fed record. He is the only one who has plans to end the evil banking sytsem!
"I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it is secretive, though it is," said Rand Paul at an April 25, 2009, "End the Fed" rally. "I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it lacks congressional oversight, although it does. I don't oppose the Federal Reserve because it's a private cartel, though it is. I oppose the Federal Reserve primarily because it wreaks havoc on the economy. We need to understand that this is the most important question of the last 30, 40 years. What caused the panic of 2008? Was it capitalism or was it the Federal Reserve?"
nonsense!! They're doin' gods work
you neglected to say which god(s)?
Cthulhu
(ah sweet, looks like the evil lord is running for Pres!)
http://www.cthulhu.org
I love the Paul's. I know how popular conspiracies are, especially here on ZH. However, you do not need big invisible conspiracies to understand precisely what Rand and Ron mean. The government IS the root of all evil. Even if you really really like the Jewish, Bildeberger, CIA, Mossad, banker, Sachs, 9-11 Inside Job, Illumanti, John Bircher, neofascist conspiracies the solution to virtually all of them is the same; disempower government/s.
It's not the stuff you cannot see you have to worry about. The stuff right in front of our faces is more than enough.
Credit default swaps, anyone?
Rand Paul sold out his father...for the implementer of Socialized Medicine in Mass., Mitt Romney, a SOCIALIST.
I do not trust anybody who is disloyal to their own father. I do not support anybody who supports Socialists or Socialism.
Rand Paul did. There are no apologies which are acceptable. He lacks a spine and character.
Look at his voting record. His meaningless endorsement means next to nothing. Libertarians are supposed to have brains to understand the issues. They aren't supposed to support someone just because someone made an endorsement.
If you really like Ron Paul and need endorsements to tell you who to support, (again, why would you?) you should still support Rand. Ron Paul endorsed Rand just a few days ago.
Just keep in mind that if you are selling to people who are paying attention, you will be thought a fool.
Besides, I only listen to avatars with real names, like RealMoney2014, or maybe RealMoney2013.You know, something classic.
Dance with the one that brought ya!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiUSb7RNmJE
Regards,
Cooter
Ron Paul endorsed Rand just a few days ago.
That is expected. As a father he is forgving of his own son's faults.
It is just too bad that Rand lacks the character in that he did not support his own father.
YES IT MATTERS. That action spoke louder than any bullshit rhetoric coming out of Rand Paul's mouth.
Rand Paul is just Washington DC establishment controlled opposition.
You might as well choose Deez Nuts as he is connected to the Obama Administration as controlled "opposition".
A vote for Rand is a vote for MOAR OF THE SAME EVIL.
Stop choosing evil. A choice between the lesser of two evils is still a choice for evil.
WE will NOT FORGIVE. We will NEVER FORGET what Romney did at the National Convention.
You and your kind have already lost everything. And I will do as Mitt Romney asked me to do in 2012. I will stay home.
You do not need us anyway, right?
(How many percentage points did Romney lose by? How many of us stayed home and refused to vote? Would it have made a difference? YOU FUCKED UP LARGE, PAL.)
whle you two argue, enemy is at Smolensk, Stalin would make sure you two no longer do that:)
Yes, Sir.
Rand tried to take advantage of his father's steadfast message of liberty and combined it with trying to play nice with the establishment - which Ron refused. Rand played politics as opposed to being a true statesman. He thought he could combine the two and win - then came TRUMP.
Yup. You said it! Trump is here to drown out the only voice of liberty (as watered down as you think it is). Hooray for Trump! Im so grateful that he is here to make sure the liberty message wont get out!
His whatever-it's-called on the patriot act renewal carried a lot of water for me. Basically stood up there alone against tyranny. When Trump starts talking about fascism in the USSA he will have some credibilty. When he starts raising questions about 9/11. When he points out that the drive to war with Iran because of its alleged nuke program is identical to that 15 years ago over Iraq and its alleged WMD. Until then, he's just another loudmouth. 8 years ago it was a smooth-talking nigger. Now it's a smooth-talking real estate developer. When th e fuck will the US wake up?
The people will awaken WHEN THEY BECOME HUNGRY.
Then ALL HELL will break loose across America as it tears itself apart.
Your Donald will not be able to save the day. Nobody will.
There have just been too many LIES uttered out of Washington DC. Nobody will trust any fucking politician as they have all proven themselves UNTRUSTWOTHY with their stewardship over America.
The USA will fragment and balkanize.
Let's get rid of the corruption and bring on the collapse.
The pain and suffering will be horrific as America awakens.
As we have caused pain and suffering GLOBALLY there are NONE who are more deserving.
When things get really bad a savior will rise up to save us from ourselves. He will be given all power and take us to a place we have never been.
I am glad that I am old and will probably not live to see it.
We are definitely getting close to the breaking point all around the world. Greece is back in the news with snap elections and that hardly is a blip on the screen these days. Who knows how much time is left to prepare for this debacle. I've plugged these guys before but if you don't have a firearm and are looking for one, check these out. The least expensive for what you are getting. Here's a new write up from "on target" magazine that outlines what is standard on these excellent rifles. PS Made next town over and I know people who work for them (disclaimer).
http://ontargetmagazine.com/2015/08/daemon-defense-opr-15-carbine/
www.daemondefensellc.com
Also, take stock of your food supplies as they exist today and make sure you top off things you have used or don't have. You need 3 months minimum along with water if you are on other than a well with back up electric source (or hand pump).
tall tom, I agree 100%. he has gone back on everything intresting he has ever said. as soon as he gets a little heat about something, he backtracks. Case in point, his position on ending ALL foreign aid got a bunch of heat from republicans about "surely that doesn't mean Israel, too?" what does rand do, 'of course I support israel, I don't mean we should stop giving them taxpayers dollars, just countries that burn our flag'. He DOES support taxing US citizens to give the money to other countries. Thats not the only thing, either. At this point, he is nothing a but another garden variety republican. In trying to pander to the republican base, he lost too many of his fathers supporters to be meaningful, he is done
Dude, you are flat out lieing!!!
He said in the debate that we should end all foreign aid until we are out of debt (so that is pretty much forever!)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHg_0DBW9Es
If you want the Fed ended, Rand is the only one you can vote for. Other than that, you support the Fed...or you arent voting, which is another discussion.
You keep waiting for the perfect candidate. You will watch leftists rule forever.
I will pick Rand or a few others over the alternatives. You all seem to forget when he has taken stands alone with personal filibusters and has held on to positions contrary to many in his own party.
I love Ron Paul but he accomplished zero for all his time. The only thing he did, which was good, was assert a principled position or counter position for others to consider.
"he accomplished zero for all his time. The only thing he did, which was good, was assert a principled position or counter position for others to consider."
Well, then, you don't understand what the real issue is, do you...
Congratulations -- that is the ignorance that guarantees the trajectory.
These guys are dumber than a box of rocks.
Tell you what, you post the issue you think I do not understand and we will debate it right here, genius.
You will find out how your foot tastes.
You failed to give a reason why Rand -who is still young enough to be able to wait some- cannot assert a principled position as well.
We wouldn't be talking about Ron Paul much anymore if he had sold out for fear of running out of time.
Paul shit on himself, toast
Most are slaves or enslaved to something much more heinous than the FED; Satan.
------------------------------------
Rand Paul is not his father and is more like Mitch McConnell; Ben Carson is the only truly honest, humble and caring candidate running imo.
Yep, Rand Paul imploded. Leaving Bernie Sanders as the most anti-Fed one left standing. He was the driving force behind the Fed audit and has grilled the shit out of Fed Chairmen during hearings and testimony (both as a Representative and Senator).
Most posters here don't like Sanders (I do). But he is the only one standing with us on the Fed issue.
Rand is still anti-fed. There is still half a year until the of America votes, and about 4 months until the first votes are cast. He is not toast. The only way he is toast is if the people who realize that the Federal Reserve is the biggest problem of the past century roll over and accept some other candidate because he shouts funny things or because the press is pumping them. Look, I think that there is a possibility that the SHTF before the election, but if it doesn't don't you want someone in there that will try tyo stop bail-ins, capital controls, QEs, martial law, Fema camps, etc?
There really is only one choice vote for Rand or don't vote at all. Any other vote gives you the same result: the Fed in control!
As far as Bernie goes. He wants to ban assualt weaponds. Thats right the two 'outsider' (trump) candidates want to take your protection for when the fed implodes the system. No thanks!
C'mon. There is a HUGE difference between guns for legit purposes (which Sanders is Ok with) and ASSAULT WEAPONS. If you believe citizens really need ASSAULT WEAPONS then we are already toast like Rand Paul.
The purpose for weapons and arms (assault is a term coined by gun grabbers to make it seem like the weapon itself has a agenda) is for protection. Any weapon can be used for multiple purposes. Shotguns are great for home defense. Handguns are good for concealing, traveling and stopping rapes and muggers. Riffles are good for holding an area. You could be holding from riots and mobs or evil governments.
History has shown that when a government takes the guns, that they soon take the lives and freedom of the citizens. Look at Hitler and Mao. Or if you want an example closer to home, how about the Indians.
The Japanese Emperor once said that America couldn't be taken over from the outside because there would be a riffle behind every blade of grass. Theglobalists (Trump, Sanders, Clinton, obama and the rest of the goons) want to disarm the population. If you dont want your guns then don't own one.
If we are toast, and shit is ready to hit the fan I'd rather have a defense riffle, than a can of mase and a phone to dial 9-11.
Time is running out to protect yourself and your family. I hope you realize that you can't rely on the government to do that, unless you want to go to a FEMA camp. I heard they have sweet protection and don't allow assault weapons.
The government gets its rights from the people, not vice versa. There should be zero talk about the people getting their god given rights of defense and protection taken, especially before the government has that right taken. The amount of guns that the alphabet soup of givt agencies have now is stupid. If you are against weapons, start with theirs. Because we have more rights than our government. If not, who does the government get its power and rights from....read Bastiat's 'The Law'
Flamethrowers are much more affective. Who needs a gun?
In 48 States it is perfectly legal for a convicted violent felon to own a Flamethrower.
Besides the Body Armor just melts...to the skin.
TM31-200-1 Department of the Army Technical Manual, Unconventional Warfare Devices and Techniques, References
Redneck Engineering at its finest.
http://www.amazon.com/Unconventional-Warfare-Techniques-References-31-200-1/dp/0975900978
Jorgen
Vote up! 3
Vote down! 0
It's available for free at these links:
http://www.ganino.com/military_manuals
or
https://archive.org/details/military-manuals?&sort=-downloads&page=1
you're full of nonsense, and your argument bears no weight at all because it's based on two false premises:
"legit purposes" ("shall not be infringed" has a pretty big problem with that concept)
"assault weapons"
you need to read this thoroughly... you simply have no leg to stand on...
http://monsterhunternation.com/2012/12/20/an-opinion-on-gun-control/
Can you please explain exactly what your definition of an assault weapon is. You certainly do not hesitate to mention the term several times in all caps so you must have a pretty clear and concise idea of what the fuck it is you want to ban. Also, who exactly is the great decider who chooses which guns have legit purposes and which are non-legit, or less legit, or only semi-legit, or seasonally adjusted legit.
If you believe in the fake, MSM-invented PSYOP term "assault weapon" - can you define what an "assault weapon" is, by the way? - then you are already toast.
And tell me, how many goons, with shiny badges and ASSAULT WEAPONS, will be needed to ensure that the general population is disarmed in accordance with your edict?
Legit Purposes ?
Shut up you fucking cunt.
Faggots like you will be the first on their knees sucking cop dick.
Real classy. I'm thinking in terms of a detachable magazine when I say assault weapon.
I believe in civil liberties as much as anyone on ZH (anti NSA spying, etc, etc, etc).
But there are some people such as yourself (apparently) who envision the right to arm yourself in this fashion as though you expect to go out in a blaze of glory. You know, defending yourself and your home against an army of armed government agents coming specifically to seize your property. Or you want to blow away anyone you don't like under the guise of self protection. Your utter over-reation is precisely why the issue cannot be reasonably addressed. Heck, you have to resort to this puerile crap. Go ahead mr. manly cool dude & have a nice day.
Ahh jesus. Another fucking moron. Look, the 2nd amendment didn't say anything about "legit purposes", there were no caveats whatsoever. What is so difficult to understand about "the right of the citizens to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed"?
Incidentally, if what you mean by "assault weapons" is battle rifles, then there is EVERY fucking reason for the citizens to keep them. The point of the 2nd amendment is it's a (or was hoped to be a) guarantee against government tyranny. Your .22 repeater is not a lot of use there. Battle rifles are. That's what they do. And the founders considered it a "legitimate purpose".
Kindly define what an ASSUALT WEAPON is. I'm an ignorant gun owner, and I have no idea what that is.
anything beyond that which Mac mowed the forest down with, looking for that strange gelatinous looking creature.
Bernie will not get rid of the Fed but he will further erode liberties and the economy.
As a Fed income taxpayer I am still waiting for my bail in. Where's my bail in? BAIL IN BITCHES.
HOW MANY DUMFOUNDED AMERICANS WILL WAKE UP ONE DAY GOING TO THE ATM OR CHECKING ONLINE TO SEE A HAIRCUT IN THEIR DEPOSITS?
ZHers how many: 100 million, 200 million, 300 million, 310 million (not including illegals), 315 million + or more?
Who will be CYPRUS'ED?
THere'll be no rescuing the markets this time. Stealing our money out of our accounts? For sure, but no market rescue.
at this point all the fed can do is more QE. raising rates brings the financial system to its kness, if there is a large market crash, deflationary event, or credit contraction (whatever you want to call it) there is only one policy response for the fed, and that is more QE. they'll save the markets, govt, and banks by killing everything else.
"Because if the days of Keynesian voodoo and fiat are almost over, then absolutely nobody has any idea what lies ahead."
The Great Reset lies ahead.
I'm still calling it "The Great Implosion™!"
We are under the 68 week moving average in the ES which if we remain for any appreciable amount of time marks the start of the bear market. That is the death average with the exception of the 2011 rout and subsequent stick save by the FED.
First they came for the miners and you did nothing cause you weren't in the miners,
Then they came for the drillers and you still did nothing cause you weren't involved in the energy sector,
Then they came for your small caps but only speculators trade the small caps so you remained balls to the wall long the story stocks, buying every dip, Apple back to 1000 you would think to yourself at night as you blew coke off the 2000$ hookers asses.
Now they are coming for the story stocks and you are trapped like a rat on a sinking ship that is already under water.
Clearly the only variable is the FED. Will they come in and save us like they did in China? How is that going over there by the way?
Does anyone else it repulsive that BailedOutAmerica are making these statements?
We must have faith my fellow Keynesian travellers or all is indeed lost!
I guarantee everything will be GREEN and FUCKING AWESOME by close Friday.
The FED has lost credibility and control.
Collapse baby collapse.
Audience Participation Night approaches. Credit Freeze IITM, the Sequel, is coming to a theater near you. Get your golden tickets. You do not want to miss this show.
I'm with you, this time it is different. Nothing will work and it will be bad as hell. Everyone has to realize with the market in read for two weeks or more and getting worse by the day and China's market collapsing the signs are showing that world recession aka depression is on the way if not here. And QE4 if done will need trillions and that will only make the dollar hotter than ever and inflation will go into hyper stagflation.
From visions that we burned, in towns we painted red.
When we sang this song, loud enough to wake the dead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6zwQrM9mKk
Regards,
Cooter
Good music...
The Fed won't stop QEing until the dollar crashes and burns.
QE is the only thing the Fed has left.
See the future of the US in Japan. Only when the US blows up it will be historic.
I don't really grok these markets, to what degree are the FDIC-insured banks involved with them? Why should the Fed care? The Fed will protect the banks, and possibly corporations, from any major failures. That might be QE4 and might involve a hundred billion dollars but it might last only an hour.
Or is there more to it?
Every FDIC bank that's TBTF is using depositor funds to play the ponzi. They play games with sweep accounts and other accounting gimicks to get their reserve ratio down as close to 0 as possible.
The last time ('08) the FDIC had to more than double the insurance limit to stop an electronic bank run. By the Fed's own admission we were within hours of a global financial collapse. The ponzi is so big and moves so fast QE4 might as well be trillions of dollars -- and probably will be -- but it won't be connected with the accounts that need it until likely weeks later, and at that point who knows that the actual value of the USD (or any other fiat) really will be.
Few people realize that leverage in a closed fractional reserve banking system is infinite at low intra-bank lending rates.
Why?
Because any loan originated by a bank (Bank A) will be deposited to another bank (Bank B). Since Bank A lent at rate X, even if they don't have the proper ratios, can borrow from Bank B at rate X-Y as this bank now has excess reserves. This works until banks are afraid of each other and pull intra-bank lending. This was at the heart of the 07/08 meltdown.
Banks always lend if they think they can get paid back, reserves or not. That is window dressing that happens after the fact.
But this can't grow forever - eventually leverage goes the otherway. That moment gets closer and closer.
Regards,
Cooter
Just wait until a Republican is elected. All will be right in the world. You just wait and see, it's for real this time.
what if they have to BRING IN QE4....imagine what that would do. Imagaine how pissed people will be then, and in here especially.
love the update, the market is raveling down it seems in GLOBEX> ooops!
However look at this special market psychology chart here ==> http://www.bit.ly/1fMcakI is saying look to the market psychology, as this might be a nice dip to buy soon, one could make off like a bandit!!! This bull market has not changed, its still intact.
By one measure, though, the correlation level is now around its lowest in seven years. The S&P implied correlations was below 49 Thursday and fell below 44 over the past few weeks, indicating a sharp downturn to the lowest level since August 2008. The ICI, as traders call it, is an options-based measure of the S&P 500's top 50 companies.
So in laymens terms it means hedge funds stuggling, are going to go looking and hunting for HUGE buying opportunities soon, do you think that will crash the market down to ZERO, like cnbc keep saying. NO..... that has a 1% chance of happening. So keep buying the dips. Its been working since 2009, and will continue to work into 2016. Just saying.
You go right ahead and put your own money into the casino, sweetheart.
I'm out until the market is down 85%. Then I'll sit on my coins to see if it stabilized and MIGHT put a fraction back in.
I'll convert them into whatever currency we're then using and make the purchase.
But you go with your program, and I won't criticize.
This time it's different, and that 2009 QE effect makes it so.
Funny how we all thought the DOW was overpriced garbage at 12k and now that it's 17k we pray to our lord, The Fed, to save us.
End the Fed, End the insanity.
Don't you just love the new Fed spokesperson.....Cankels, the pillsbury doughgirl? What a goddamn fucking joke.
Please do not ..never mind...the unregenerate. I pray you will be known by the Lord.
OH he fucking knows me and I know him, and he knows I'm right. Morality - its a logical thing. Square that with the outright confiscation of property conducted by the FED, including the property of the unregenerate. You want to know evil champ?! Its the stealth robbery of wealth through insane manipulating machinations of a central group of asshats couldn't care less about you, your neighbor, or the word of God. Sorry but, "forgive them father, they know not what they do." Bullshit. They know exactly what they're doing and it aint God's work.
END THE FUCKING FED!!
That's right: Bank of America is begging for another Fed-assisted market bailout, which gladly hints would be accelerated should Glencore experience a premature "credit event."
And why the fuck "not"?...
Nobody but Madoff went to jail in '08 the last time they were bailed out. -No "Pecora" investigation(s) took place with officer(s) of AIG, Bear Sterns, Lehman, Citigroup, JP Morgan and our favorite bank in the whole World that had their fingers among other appendages up the sphincty of everyone and has a revolving door to the Federal Reserve, U.S. Treasury EU and IMF -Leadman Sucks...
If you don't put them on the top of the Federal Reserve headquarters and the Freedom Tower to be thrown off the roof 7 years after the irreparable harm they continue to carry out...
This is what you get and what you deserve!
We're just waiting for the Statute of Limitations to run out. Then we'll investigate. [Obama Administration]
Quote: "if not even central banks can boost this market, then the time to get the hell out of Dodge is at hand."
Got that right; seems like they are losing the handle and ready to implement "Plan B"; massive short squeeze followed by "pulling the plug" and letting the chips fall. Seems we are at or near the end-game. I was hoping the DJIA would not go below 17K and it did, so tomorrow will give strong forward guidance that will answer the question; "have they lost control altogether?". I hope not.
You hope not because YOU SUPPORT THE CURRENT FRAUD.
You are as Double Minded as they come. You had best read James, Chapter 1.
I am seeking the complete destruction of FRAUD and CORRUPTION.
Collapse baby collapse.
Let the judgment of God pour forth upon ME, as well as all of the rest of the wicked...including you.
+1 Good to see you TT. Got into it with my brother tonight, albeit friendly like, when he said "well I know things are getting worse, but, I hope we are wrong." I said huh? "what do you mean you hope you are wrong?" I, of course, took the other side of that hope mission. I told him that "I for one am tired of bad behviour such as unproductive debt accumulation, being rewarded with the insanely cheap cost of borrowing, while good behavior such - such as saving and the stewardship of one's wealth, is penalized." He understood, but, he felt bad for those that are going to lose a lot. My argument to him was simply that if they couldn't afford to buy it outright, then it was never really theirs to begin with. They will be no worse off when assets change hands. Let failure occur - stop propping it up because the only thing that accomplishes is the idea that mistakes don't matter, when in fact, the price of a mistake is the only mechanism we have to distinguish efficient from inefficient decisions - or good behavior from bad.
" I hope not." Hope will not save your dumb ass.
News flash Dundee. The FED has NEVER been in control. Being forced to react to redemptions is not becoming of someone who is "in control". Short of buying stocks, like the PBOC, or more MBS and CDS (QE1,2, Twist, 3), or, more Treasuries (QE forever), they're done. The thing about the market is that eventually it exposes the reality of central planning - that it doesn't work, hasn't worked, and never will work. It is simply naiive to think that any central bank has been in control of anything - ever. If they have been in control of anything at all, it would be that they own one of the greatest wealth redistributions that has ever occurred in history. They own that, And they also own every major recession since 1913. And they will own this cluster fuck too when it is all said and done. Because there is no free lunch. Sooner or later - everybody pays.
Dollar cost average. You only lose if you sell. Think of it as a clearance sale.
Dollar cost averaging is just a lie that retail brokers try to get their muppets to buy into. If it's sinking GET OUT.
Just for the hell of it, I bought a first edition copy of Hank Paulson's 'On The Brink" for $1 so I could re-read all his lies.
Earlier today, I put on reserve "The Creature From Jekyll Island" with my local library.
Since my family and friends completely ignore and belittle every thing I say about Economics, I guess I'll just entertain myself while checking in occasionally on all the carnage around me. Maybe also check out some horror flicks on Netflix before my free 30 day trial period ends. But I don't believe even the remake of "I Spit On Your Grave" or the depravity of "A Serbian Film" can compare to the horror wrought by the FED or the TBTF banks.
****** "A Serbian Film" was removed from Netflix, but can be seen on YouTube. I recorded it to a DVD-R. Certainly not for the squeamish or those readily offended. ******
You wasted a dollar.
There's a HOLE in my BUCKET Dear Liza, Dear Liza
The sign has been up since 2009 and still applies today.
NO SHORTING ALLOWED...EVER!!!
by order of the management, GS
Note to all you traders trying to 'get the hell out of dodge' as the Tylers have suggested it is WELL past time to do:
A tidal wave does not pass very well thru a garden hose.
Sir... Unleash the Picasso, the Da Vinci and the Rembrandt in you. You should at least decide to take up painting as a hobby.
Thank you, Sir.
I'll take that as a compliment :)
we all know that another bailout and another and another is coming. it's called crony crapitalist fascism. get used to it.
Do higher interest rates represent a greater threat than lower growth to the 1% is the question?
The Fed will always serve the interests of the 1%.
Current stock, housing, car loan, and college loan bubble will all get worse if Fed does more QE. More QE really just means more malinvestment while no QE means that current malinvestment will come due. Those bubbles popping is inevitble so popping them now while they're smaller is maybe the best course.
China and Europe are now in position where they have to QE to stop economic implosion so US can exploit that to shut down US QE and let China and Europe carry the load.
In regards to the 1% the big loser of this would be Hillary and the likely big winner would be Jeb. Both canidates are completely in the pocket of the 1% so the rest of the 1% really don't care.
To answer your first question: the 1% is positioned to weather either outcome.
Regarding whether to QE or not: the elephant at this point is too big to eat one bite at a time.
To adress China and Europe carrying the load: are you SERIOUS? They are both imploding.
And finally: bringing politics into an economic discussion !?!?
I don't think I explained it well.
To be more clear I believe the fed will let the stockmarket tank instead of raising interest rates. The drop in stocks will have same impact as rate increases. That will allow fed to keep rates low and avoid a surge in US dollar.
It will also correct one of the bubbles currently in the US economy. The oil buble got popped last year now it's time for the stock bubble to be popped.
Market tanks, rates go down - the riggers need lots of collateral in the derivatives casino.
That's a likely scenario for now. The Fed works to save the bankers and low rates are good for them. And to weave politics into this, a stock market crash is good for Trump. At some point though, pissed off soon-to-be-retirees are going to want a booming stock market.
Widespread occurrence of adversity obscures the origin(s) -- which serves the powers-that-be.
Yes. During a panic, watch who doesn't panic.
<"Indeed, we too believe that if not even central banks can boost this market, then the time to get the hell out of Dodge is at hand. And while exiting, make sure to have a lot of gold, silver and lead. Because if the days of Keynesian voodoo and fiat are almost over, then absolutely nobody has any idea what lies ahead.">
We all agree, I think. When faith in the omnipotent bankers ends, Dow 7K is right around the corner...and a big war to distract everyone. Everything will come apart quickly and the exits are tiny...a stock market collapse will be fought with everything they have.
The bears have been very patient and now get their turn. Silicon Valley will lead the final collapse. The end of their property mega-bubble will be the most spectacular collapse ever seen. Once that goes the Fed will panic big time. All the Chinese buyers will walk away and the construction cranes on the high-rise condos will all stop.
Now it gets exciting...failure is an option, maybe a given. Millions buried in debt, jobs gone or pay little. Can't pay for the McMansion, the two SUVs and the boat, on Wal-Mart wages. Trump is the man!
the fed needs a reason?
Here is why gold prices are so low:
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/07/20/dear-fed-plz-raise-gold-price/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/are-big-banks-using-derivatives-suppress-bullion-prices/
Here are some more signs of a recession.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/05/29/mergers-and-acquisitions-set-record...
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/20/fed-warns-of-two-bubbles/
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/24/would-you-pay-39-more-than-asked/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-27/when-will-we-ever-learn/
Here is how to prepare.
http://michaelekelley.com/2014/10/16/8-things-to-do-when-recession-happens/
Here is how to get your mind off this stuff.
http://michaelekelley.com/category/humor/
Good luck!
CBs printing their fiat into worthless oblivion. Oil producers drilling their output into worthless oblivion. It's a two-pronged race to the bottom, and the carnage has not even begun yet. This is a prelude to Act I. The world of financial disreality is floating on a sea of leveraged derivatives. Those who have recklessly bought into these valuations will not be able to comprehend the magnitude of reconciliation.
I'm not calling this current downturn "Neo" just yet, but it's got a lot of the makings.
Real question isn't what the Fed is going to do - we all know they will pull back the iHike and return to ctrl-P. The real question is whether it will fool the masses yet again.
Back to my scotch.
it is NOT possible for Central Banks to bail out every company that fails.
It is NOT possible for Central Banks to bail out every nation that fails.
The MONEY DOES NOT EXIST!!
It is NOT POSSIBLE to save the global system of Derivatives. The players are leveraged too highly, and the trades are too interconnected (bilateral netting). REAL failures are going to happen. Real hedge funds and banks are going to go down. Trades will not "net out". DEAL WITH IT!
The ONLY smart guy - is the guy who gets out early. Who "beats the Casino" at Vegas? The guy who is up $5,000 in Blackjack. Then he calls it quits, he puts the cash in his pocket, and he walks out the door. WHY? Because if he stays - he knows he will gamble it all away. The odds are against him! He can't win in the long run. Anyone who stays in the Global Derivatives Game is facing the same odds - it's impossible to win in the long run. The only winning path ... is to walk out first. Keep your winnings and walk.
And that's already happening.
Yes, but it does not end there. HOW and in WHAT from you hold your winnings, earnings or savings will matter just as much.
Wrong - the money doesn't exist...yet! Remember the old "digital equivalent to the printing press"? I have a trillion dollar Zimbabwean note in my desk that says we're still in the early innings.
Nobody listened when I was drunk at 15 and yelling out on the street that everybody has to stop screwing or there will be too many people in the future. The future is here and there are people everywhere. Nobody listens to Q99X2. I've voiced my desire for an open source publicly owned and operated financial system and government by open source software as well as the elimination of individual wealth above 10,000,000 includiing corporate ownership. I'm done. After the end if I'm still here maybe somebody will listen but I doubt it. Good luck.
FED. Headfake. Fails.
I am leery of any trade that requires a third party against whose malfeasance I have no recourse.
Has anyone heard about MyRa's lately?
That has been rather quiet for a while.
One way to get a lot more interest in MyRa's would be have everyone trained to expect the Fed to come to the rescue every time the market starts to sharply decline, but simply not show up to save the day.
Then everyone would be clamoring for such a "guaranteed, safe way to invest".
But, that is just a silly idea that I have, when I ponder the amount of Baby Boomers that will be reaching retirement age en masse soon.
Just Keep Stacking
Zh, can you ask BoA how come they are now able to see things in a "what's under my pillow" moment that you, I and countless others could see long time ago.
Nevertheless, I promised about the rental problem. .. here is a prelude to that.
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-tale-of-two-...
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
Of course yes
QE == Heroin
Once you get it , you can't leave
Now 68 RUB for 1 USD
here is putin regime reply to that:
https://youtu.be/S4uVcptN1Lo?t=1m45s
P.S. Spoiler alert - reply has not changed from yesterday.
Putin will have to take out some production assets. War is how we solve depressions.
It's the 'Samson Defence' in action - nothing more - Russia and China have obviously had enough ! With good reason !
S&P 1666
Oh, lets be clear - hyper inflation lays ahead. The central banks have one last policy tool (well, two if you include WWIII) and that's "QE for the people" - helicopter money. And that's exactly what the neo-Marxist left wing politicians in the DMs are calling for. Print money and hand it out to their favored class of folks - the poor and working poor. They will each be given tens of thousands of dollars to "restart" the moribund economies. And we all know what that does to prices of existing goods absent supply side inducements to grow production. That's when owning precious metals, real estate, etc. will really pay off. But buckle up folks as it's gonna be a bumpy ride...
Just to add a thought to all of you that think your vote means something.
If someone would actually make it to the presidency through the owned press and diebold process, he/she will either toe the line or get eliminated.
As far as the Fed goes, they will do whatever it takes to take what everyone has left.
Tyler, you're going to incur a penalty for spiking the ball and doing an end zone dance after a touchdown.
Banning spiking and end zone dancing .... was rayciss .... and I should know .... what´s next .... outlawing black moms from giving their kids colorful names .... these are some of the things I actually like about niggahs !
Rand looks like a heavy drinker ?
This may be the showdown between Mr. Market and the Yellen that will determine the short term direction of equities and gold. A promise not to raise interest rates ever will be viewed with contempt by Mr. Market. No, he wants more QE and Yellen will deliver or all hell will break lose . . . gold is rallying for exactly that reason. The fed is trapped and has to blink, they own this market and when it blows, I mean really blows they'll have Yellen, Ben and Greenspans's head on a stick.
" they'll have Yellen, Ben and Greenspans's head on a stick."
Who are "they"?
Copper Head Bank .... you deposit copper bullion .... we issue copper certificates .... the Copper Backed dollah .... any investors out there ?
One "Copper" is worth one troy ounce of Cu .... coin or certificate .... silver will soon be out of reach .... for the little people ?
They already are bailing out the stock market. The question is when do they publicly admit it so they can get chasers in to do some of the work for them. They thought they could just buy stocks and futures in secret on their own in secret until this economy they destroyed recovered. The US stock market is at least 50% over valued.