One of the big problems with China's FX move is that although they've "only" seen a 3% currency fall (in the onshore Yuan) since their announcement last week, as Deutsche's Jim Reid explains... others have subsequently followed suit either deliberately or via market pressure. Emerging Market FX has been falling for 9 straight weeks but the last 2 have seen a dramatic escalation in the carnage...
The following countries have seen their currency depreciate at least 4% since last Monday (and using last night’s closing prices):
Kazakhstan (leading the way with a huge 26% devaluation following the removal of the trading band), Russia, Ghana, Guinea, Colombia, Belarus, Turkey, Malaysia and Algeria.
In fact, if we extended the analysis to include those that have seen at least a 3% depreciation then the number of countries hits 17 and unsurprisingly all sit in the EM bracket.
Every day it feels like we’re hitting fresh cycle lows for a currency somewhere with yesterday’s highlights being the Turkish Lira briefly sliding past 3 against the Dollar for the first time ever, the South African Rand breaching a level not seen since 2001, the Ruble weakening to the lowest level since February and the Malaysian Ringgit returning to a 17-year low.
So whatever their intentions the Chinese have created an air of fragility around the globe.
Source: Deutsche Bank