This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

"The Seven Year Glitch" - Has The Time Come

Tyler Durden's picture




 

A couple of interesting charts from State Street's "Mr Risk" Fred Goodwin, courtetsy of Saxo's Steen Jakobsen, both of which deal with business cycles, the first in the economy by way of the Citigroup surprise index which may have recently hit its local maximum and is now due for a substantial deterioration, in line with virtually all other high frequency economic indicators except for the job market which is kept afloat courtesy of low-quality, low paying waiters and bartender jobs (resulting in the "surprising" zero wage growth).

 

The second one is more suggestive: it looks at key events occuring in 7 year cycles, finds that every recent multiple of the year 2015 going back in 7 year increments brings
with it some major adverse market event, and asks: is it 2015's turn?

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 08/22/2015 - 17:48 | 6456471 quintago
quintago's picture

It's the Shemitah!! run!!!

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 17:50 | 6456477 Tallest Skil
Tallest Skil's picture

1901-1902 Shmitah 

46% US Stock market value wiped out.

1916-1917 Shmitah

40% US Stock market value wiped out. German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman Empires collapsed. Britain, the world’s greatest empire was almost bankrupt. The beginning of American to rise to world power.

1930-1931 Shmitah

86% U.S stock market value wiped out in the worst financial crisis in modern history.

1937-1938 Shmitah

50% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession.

1944-1945 Shmitah

End of German Reich and Britain's hold on territories. Establishment of America as the world’s superpower.

1965-1966 Shmitah

23% stock market value wiped out.

1972-1973 Shmitah

48% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession. US Voted to kill its unborn children (Abortion legalized). US lost its first war Vietnam…

1979-1980 Shmitah

US and global recession

1986-1987 Shmitah

33% US Stock market value wiped out.

1993-1994 Shmitah

Bond market crash.

2000-2001 Shmitah

37% US stock market value wiped out. 9/11 and global recession.

2007-2008 Shmitah

50% US Stock market value wiped out. Global recession from which there has yet been no recovery.

2014-2015 Shmitah

 

Of all sad words of tongue or pen, the saddest are these: “We were right again.”

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:14 | 6456515 knukles
knukles's picture

Even some of my non-religious and atheist acquaintances recently have muttered musing of the "end of times"
I kid you not.  People "know" something's wrong.  They "feel" it.
Listen, I gotta run, Douching with Cait is on.  This week it's shaving it's ass crack.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:18 | 6456528 markmotive
Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:54 | 6456605 realmoney2015
realmoney2015's picture

I still hear the 'it can't happen here' from the sheep.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:28 | 6456681 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

What is this Shemitah?  Is it a WASP thing?

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:13 | 6456779 ugmug
ugmug's picture

Author and Bible teacher Jonathan Cahn says he has been so swamped with questions and concerns about the looming end of the Shemitah year on Sept. 13 that he can’t answer them all.

“We have been deluged with people calling, emailing, asking questions from all over the country, wanting to know what’s happening. So we decided to put out a video,”

 

http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/harbinger-man-the-time-is-now-to-prepare/

 

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 23:56 | 6457111 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

I guess the 1950's were too powerful even for the dreaded Shemitah...

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 02:16 | 6457229 ugmug
ugmug's picture

Israel became a nation during the 50's. God had begun to fill "Noah's Ark" once again...Matthew 24:36-38  36"But of that day and hour no one knows, not even the angels of heaven, nor the Son, but the Father alone.37"For the coming of the Son of Man will be just like the days of Noah. 38"For as in those days before the flood they were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, until the day that Noah entered the ark,…

Luke 17:25-27 25"But first He must suffer many things and be rejected by this generation. 26"And just as it happened in the days of Noah, so it will be also in the days of the Son of Man:27they were eating, they were drinking, they were marrying, they were being given in marriage, until the day that Noah entered the ark, and the flood came and destroyed them all.…

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 12:09 | 6457785 saints51
saints51's picture

The blessings continued throughout the 1950s and into the 1960s. But that's when things started going awry. Prayer was removed from public schools and God was removed from the public square. Abortion became legal in 1973.

 

The statement above is from Cahn. I agree with everything he is saying about this timeframe. I would ask you to research your comments before posting.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 14:59 | 6458344 S Spade
S Spade's picture

intead of pointing fingers, why don't you look it up?

i take you don't care for WASPs, is there any group you like? good and bad comes with all races, ethnicities, "sexual identities", organized religions, and/or non-religions, though the bad element seems more prevalent in some than others.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 05:22 | 6457312 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

@ markmotive

Ed Yardini / Secular Stagnation

 

Irving Fishing / Permanenly High Plateau

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months." Oct. 17, 1929

 

There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.
Sept. 5, 1929

 

 

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:27 | 6456545 xcehn
xcehn's picture

“The Prudent see Danger and take Refuge.” Proverbs

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 08:53 | 6457449 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

"Pray towards heaven, but row towards shore."

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 00:37 | 6457159 petroglyph
petroglyph's picture

It put's the lotion on it's skin, or it gets the hose again

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 04:33 | 6457292 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

flagged for excessive use of apostrophes, when none were required

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:17 | 6456527 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

2021-2022 - Cancelled due to poor attendance after a nuclear war?

2028-2029 - World War IV fought with sticks and stones as foreseen by Albert Einstein.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:27 | 6456537 Dorelei
Dorelei's picture

Isn't this year also the start of a Jubilee which is supposed to be a 7² kind of event  ???

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:37 | 6456567 valley chick
valley chick's picture

It preceeds the year of the Shemitah. As their calendar year is different it would begin on the 14th of September.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:48 | 6456591 brucekeller
brucekeller's picture

It's also like the 77th jubilee since Israel started or something.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:29 | 6456551 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

We Shemitah'd some folks.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:27 | 6456809 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

- 1970 was a Recession year
- 1980, 81, and 82 were recession years
- 1980 Recession - may have been partly the fault of Volker Interest Rates which rose from over 10% to over 17%.
- 1990 was a Recession year
- 2001 was a Recession year
- 2008, 2009, are Recession years

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 03:08 | 6457260 EBT excepted
EBT excepted's picture

dat pretty shmitty...

Thu, 08/27/2015 - 16:18 | 6478866 Praeda2
Praeda2's picture

OH vey, stop holocausting me with your facts you racist goy.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:03 | 6456496 xcehn
xcehn's picture

"It seems incredible that all of these crashes occurred seven years apart!
2015 is the next domino in the sequence. The financial problems of 2008 have not been addressed – only covered up with more money printing."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51830.html

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:06 | 6456631 Dsyno
Dsyno's picture

Shemitah... Maybe there's more to the Bible than we realize, or maybe the world bankers are orchestrating it to only appear as prophecy.

 

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 22:10 | 6456977 Enki Anu
Enki Anu's picture

The most powerful world bankers are the Khazarian Bankster Warlords, and Shamita is their tool they picked from Talemud to take more of everyone's else's wealth by first crash in the value of the companies and at the bottom buy it for a fraction of real value.
Rinse and repeat Every 7 years until they fully own everyone and everything .
That's why Khaghan Bulan in 730 AD adopted Judaism as the official religion for his land.
If you have time listen to Mr Benjamin Freedman's speech from 1961.
He explains it all in only one hour.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 11:51 | 6457768 saints51
saints51's picture

yet your ZH name is enki. Most have no idea what that name is or even means.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 00:31 | 6457154 ReasonForLife
ReasonForLife's picture

I wonder what kind of disasters and events we can match up if we go count back every say 6 or 3 years instead of 7.  There's something happening EVERY DAY, and every year, certainly you can connect the dots to more major events, so I think this 7 years Shemitah thing is what is termed in the scientific community, Confirmation Bias.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 16:31 | 6458746 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Perhaps that is if you are just looking for something.  If you are looking for a specific thing or things in a specific realm then it is much less likely.  I don't think your point in valid in this case.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 17:57 | 6456487 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

And the meek shall inherit the worlds debt.......

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:09 | 6456510 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Absolutely precious!  LOL

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:01 | 6456494 max2205
max2205's picture

Bu will it work if they QE?

We have fixed the business cycle.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:07 | 6456508 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

It is my firm belif that God trumps the FED,sorry QE will not work

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:19 | 6456529 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

God does not need to get invloved. He waits for the devil to do his evil work and God then waits for us to return to Him.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:24 | 6456536 JoeySandwiches
JoeySandwiches's picture

Looking at what we've done since the last Shemitah, I don't think God's waiting for our call.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:30 | 6456688 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Fair warning I'm not a zionist but this is a good watch if you have netflix....http://www.imdb.com/title/tt4196814/

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:26 | 6456542 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

God doesn't need the devil.  He has GS.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:30 | 6456554 knukles
knukles's picture

There's actual truth in that statement.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 11:59 | 6457781 MissCellany
MissCellany's picture

Oh, you mean because they're "doing God's work"?

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 09:01 | 6457462 fattail
fattail's picture

Totally agree.  Praise be allah.  Submission and Sharia for all.  Allah akbar.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:06 | 6456504 tok1
tok1's picture

What might be different now is change in pension fund portfolios,

Ie Japanese GPIF is now 25% foreign stocks 25% Japanese stocks
15% foreign bonds 35% Japanese bonds .. They use to be 61% local bonds 10% foreign 29% stocks..

Ie so if we have a stock crash they are much more exposed. Ie a 30% stock drop means 15% loss requiring large bond sales to rebalance ..

And brings the one thing they had control of susceptible to large losses.

http://www.pionline.com/article/20150320/ONLINE/150329999/japans-big-pub...

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:13 | 6456516 kiwigal
kiwigal's picture

I read bits from the book The Mystery of the Shemitah, written by the American rabbi.  The interesting part was the symbolism with the Twin Towers and ancient cultures involving towers and how the U.S. is the new world. It was pretty scary reading but obviously it was tied in with religion and America's turning away from his idea of God. It is called The Shaking the major event that comes usually every 7 years and goes back to the idea where in the 7th year land should be left to rest, debts forgiven.  The end of the Shemitah year is September 13th.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:26 | 6456541 valley chick
valley chick's picture

And to continue with what the rabbi wrote...7 cycles of the 7 years an empire collapses. Wouldn't you know it too would be this year. Darn those 7's !

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:06 | 6456630 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

speaking of collapses... something else had a 7 - "pull it!"

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 10:11 | 6457579 Billy the Poet
Billy the Poet's picture

Did the rabbi mention that Samson is the world's first recorded suicide terrorist?

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:14 | 6456781 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

Darn those 7's !

Come on 7! Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 00:03 | 6457120 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Christine Lagarde just does what she's told, but she didn't tell us who tells her.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 09:08 | 6457473 fattail
fattail's picture

The baptist church I was raised in had a special speaker one sunday who prophecied the start of the end times on September 13.

1989.

Whoops.

For a site that requires lucid logical discussion, it seems to have been overrun by a bunch of religous people seeking to goalseek their end of times prophecies.  Whole lot of confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:26 | 6456539 honestann
honestann's picture

All planned and executed by the predators-that-be.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 22:54 | 6456544 HippieHaulers
HippieHaulers's picture

Everyone knows it takes seven years for the sheep's wool to grow back. Then it's fleecing time again.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:32 | 6456559 Weirdly
Weirdly's picture

God did it.  Therefore we can't lynch the humans that stole the collective stored labor of generations past and future.  God will punish the murderous theives after they have lived laborless lives and have passed all assets to their offspring.  Amen.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:37 | 6456569 adr
adr's picture

I've noticed a seven year cycle from initial appearance to death in popular product. The real meat happens over a four year cycle of product dominance.

The first two years a product establishes itself and proves itself to early adopters. If the product doesn't die, it enters the popular culture phase and quickly accelerates. Sometimes faster that a company can respond. During this time competitors are attempting to copy the new trend setter. The next two years are the mania phase where people rush to obtain the new iconic product. Four years in the product will have its best year. Competitors will emerge but will still be seen as copycats. 

With the peak over, the next two years will start to show cracks in the business and competitors will start to take market share. Either the product disappears along with its copies, or the business goes on as a shadow of its former self. Some die hards will hang on, but the product will never retain its former glory as a trend setter.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 04:37 | 6457294 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Wasn't the iphone introduced 7 years ago?

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:37 | 6456570 CHC
CHC's picture
“The Prudent see Danger and take Refuge.” Proverbs The Smemitah - September 13, 2015. ************************************************************* We really can't say we haven't been given any warning.
Sun, 08/23/2015 - 09:00 | 6457460 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

If you're gonna get silly about it, pull out the big guns:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BcEhkhQy9K4/Uz41Px68_4I/AAAAAAAABVo/yfUzj4J_61...

The final blood moon is on the 28th with the Feast of the Tabernacle, so you may have to wait a couple weeks past the 13th ;)

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 13:28 | 6458031 laomei
laomei's picture

If you bother running all those blood moon dates, you'll find that it's basically bullshit. Even this time roud is bullshit.  They talk about it being a "feast" tetrad.  Well, it's not.  3 out of 4 are feast days, 1 is not.  In fact, there have only been 2.  1493-1494 and 860-861.  That's it since 2000 BC.

 

All the others are bullshit.  

 

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat5/LEcatalog.html

http://www.midrash.org/calendar/

 

Have a go for yourself and see.

 

And for the whole Shemitah tie in... it's uncommon, but it's not rare to have a tetrad coincide. And it has happened for jubilee years as well.  And this is assuming you take the most liberal definitions of both.  

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 18:47 | 6456584 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:20 | 6456662 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

I was thinking 2017, but I say let it blow prematurely, it looks really worn out.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:31 | 6456677 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

All the so-called elites are Luciferians, they serve Lucifer. No joke. Lucifer is on a short leash of God, so even if he wanted to QE forever, God won't have it, and what God says goes.  So there's no QE cause Lucifer doesn't have the say so from God. Thus we will have another debt release.

 

 

What's amusing about this is that Luciferians in effect serve God, though they think they are serving Lucifer. Once you oppose God, you've lost, no matter what you do.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 19:49 | 6456736 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Amen.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:25 | 6456775 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

I think it might be prudent to separate the recessions from the collapses or crashes.

I saw something in business school in the 80s that seemed to show Asian Markets crashing every 6 years and a longer cycle for the USA of maybe 8 years. Likely this was a table or chart about Recessions. Probably you can't mix Recessions and Crashes/collapse in a cycle on the face of it, but I haven't pulled all the data.

- 1970 was a Recession year
- 1980, 81, and 82 were recession years
- 1980 Recession - may have been partly the fault of Volker Interest Rates which rose from over 10% to over 17%.
- 1990 was a Recession year
- 2001 was a Recession year
- 2008, 2009, are Recession years

- Check Interest Rates on any FRED chart you notice recession colored in gray

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS/

It is more complex than this ZH article.

Edit:

Well maybe this article makes sense after all except for the Recession in 1990 which had 10 years to the next recession there may be good reasons. Word in 2001-2 was that the US FED had figured out how to prevent recessions... obviously that would be a great goal in the 1990s and 2000s.

But also there are causes of recessions and indicators that a recession was a risk before it arrived... maybe Western Banks orchestrated some recessions in the Asian Market or Latin American Markets...

We assume there must be Business cycles, but this is a possible propaganda meme that assumes that Banks are not predatory and abusive of their powers to create money and lend money to excess.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 11:18 | 6457688 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

I've been around long enough to remember that 1970 was not a recession; 1973-74 was.

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:21 | 6456795 JailBanksters
JailBanksters's picture

Except...

In Figure 4, the Blue line has always preceed the light blue line, and this time it's going to be after the light blue line. Clearly the result of kicking the Oil Storage Container down the road. Makes no difference what the FED did or didn't do, it was always a dead cert.

 

 

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 20:38 | 6456822 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Every day I make, small entries into a small pad of paper.

 It's reassurance that I'm sane.

 Ex;  I'm grateful for the glass of water I'm drinking.

  Eg; Look at all the bankers raining down from 200 WEST! Bitchez

 

Sat, 08/22/2015 - 21:22 | 6456896 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

1973 ...

Here's a financial site with a discussion on the post topic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TsYBuw6rko

My only additional comment is related to the 2 quotes below. Even the most serious obvious reasons are very minor compared to the ones that are not.

Everyone is on edge now for many reasons. Some obvious. Others almost not at all. - Fuku Ben

People "know" something's wrong. They "feel" it. - Knukles

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-22/second-chemical-warehouse-explo...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-22/seven-year-glitch-has-time-come...

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 10:05 | 6457560 gmak
gmak's picture

Contrived.  What about the 1997 asian crisis?  WHat about 1998 Russian devaluation and default all at once? WHat about 2000 dot com implosion?  Wasn't it the 1981 recession, not 1980?

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 10:33 | 6457618 sschu
sschu's picture

From Acts 2 via Joel:

“‘In the last days, God says,

    I will pour out my Spirit on all people.

Your sons and daughters will prophesy,

    your young men will see visions,

    your old men will dream dreams.

 

So all these prophetic books and talk of the end times is consistent with what was predcited 2,500+ years ago.  Amazing.

Is this the beginning of the tribulation?  Is the rapture eminent?  Is it just a shemitah cycle?  Who knows, but it sure sells books!

sschu

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 11:43 | 6457748 Village-idiot
Village-idiot's picture

.

Sun, 08/23/2015 - 12:34 | 6457865 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

Johnathan Cahn and God had me convinced. I got my wife 100% out the market in July.  I have been trading TZA quite a bit since.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!