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Where Does The Market Go From Here?
Back in 2011, we showed the one and only correlation that has mattered to traders during the entire past 7 year period, in which capital markets lost their discounting ability and instead became policy tools micromanaged by central bankers, for an administration which equated the level of the S&P500 with policy success: that of the Fed balance sheet with everything else, and most certainly, asset and stock prices.
Then, just before the completion of QE tapering by the Fed, we showed what was also the only chart that has mattered since October, when the Fed stopped directly propping up risk assets when the Taper ended.
At the time, we quoted one of the few respectable strategists on Wall Street, DB's Jim Reid who said that "since the Fed balance sheet was used as an aggressive policy tool post-GFC, the graph suggests that the S&P 500 is well correlated with the size of the Fed balance sheet with the former leading the latter by 3 months. Given that the Fed have recently signalled that they will likely be finishing expanding their balance sheet in October, 3 months before that was July. This is important as virtually all of the mega rally in the last 5 years has come in the Fed balance sheet expansion periods. The other periods have been more challenging for markets."
Fast forward one year when after last week's furious selloff in stocks, the biggest in four years... stocks are precisely where they were a year ago. Just as we expected.
In fact, on Thursday, when the S&P500 closed at 2027, we merely remarked that based on its fair Fed balance sheet value, the S&P was "almost there", "there" being a level of just about 1970.
Almost there pic.twitter.com/UzNDDEibcB
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 20, 2015
What happened on Friday? Precisely that: the convergence between the Fed's balance sheet and the stock market, which had traded "rich" to the Fed's BS for just under a year, finally took place, and the S&P is now trading back to where it should be, based on the Fed's $4.5 trillion in "assets."
And so, here we are, with the S&P500 back to where it was a year ago, and where it should be based on a Fed balance sheet which amounts to 25% of US GDP.
Which should come as a surprise to nobody: after all, it is now clear to even the most discredited self-proclaimed finance gurus well maybe not all) that it has all been a function of Fed liquidity injections into stocks (and withdrawals from other asset classes such as Treasurys which tend to flash crash on a monthly basis now).
The only question, now that stocks are back to their fair excess-liquidity implied value, is what happens next?
Because since it is once again shown that the S&P is all about the balance sheet, a rate hike, which make no mistake is tightening pure and simple, will simply accelerate the already violent decline. Which may be why Janet Yellen should indeed take Suze Orman's advice and "comment on rate increases" because suddenly the new generation of 17-year-old hedge fund managers is feeling just a little vulnerable.
Worse, the next leg up in stocks in this Pavlovian market, may well require the Fed doing precisely what we have said all along is the next inevitable step: QE4.... then 5... then 6... and so on, until finally the helicopter money finally rains.
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This is a casino. If the Fed does nothing then markets could easily drop a lot more. If the Fed starts QE4 then the markets hit new highs. No fundamentals, no earnings, no technical analysis - in other words, a casino!
At any given time indexes will be wherever THEY want them to be.
THEY haven't loss control yet... watch TLT for the que to short
Who cares where the markets are going? If you still have skin in the rigged paper markets, then you deserve what is coming around the corner.
Get real stuff: gold, silver, land, guns, ammo, and even cash. Get out while you can. At this point, everyone has heard the warnings. Its up to you to act on the info and get yourself and family ready for the bumpy road.
I'm going to channel Fonzanoon here for a minute and observe that it seems to be about stock, not flow. At least according to the charts above. I guess we'll see if the market goes significantly below the frozen lake of the balance sheet, but it seems to be tracking pretty well so far.
Hmm, does this implied correlation between the S&P and the Fed balance sheet indicate that if the Fed balance sheet goes to zero, so does the S&P?
If it goes to zero there you have stocks real market value. Or at least something closer...
Land isn't "real stuff" when it is a lease with the government via taxes. What do we do about this?
Good point Steel. With illegal property taxes, we never really own the land or the houses we live in. Really messed up right?
Here's a simple solution (much like the rest of the solutions in DC): end the Fed!
Once that beast is dead, our government can't spend trillions of dollars. Right now our taxes go to service the debt. End the Fed and end the debt.
Zerohedge has rarely so grossly miscategorized a market move. This move is about one thing and one thing only AAPL, AAPL is accounts for about 70% of the drop seen in the DAQ. This so far has been about the world realizing AAPL is a phone company that sells a few high margin Macs.... This is not the collapse that you are looking for.
for a more erudite and interesting take see http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150810.htm
Explain the semiconductors then.
The move was caused by ONE stock correcting. Should they all be correcting Absolutely. As far as explains semiconductors what goes into an apple watch? APPL is a one trick pony and that pony is slowing way down.... Yes the oil patch went along with it, but the normal response to the oil patch going down is buy more appl Not this time.
Heres another little factoid the Advance decline stats for last week. You had 2/3rds of the market up on the week. data from bar charts. Down vote me all you want but I am 100% correct. I agree that there is enough out there to cause a real correction and possibly crash, but this move isnt it, unless we get a black Monday, which I seriously doubt with the PPT.
Last Week +0.45% 2732 91 1317there is truth in what you say, tonight at 1800 hrs edst the /es opens, and then the asian markets as the world spins around. if they are all down big then it could be a confirmation of more selling monday.
there are some of us who have seen sessions like this when out of the blue the fed, or something yanked some chain and the market gains everything it lost last week and adds 100 on top of it. anybody remember 2007? even 2008, the /es would be lock-limit-down overnight and then blow up like a rocket next day.
my point is what is happening is what they want to happen.
Dude, you are inexperienced. STFU and read and listen.
Markets are a little more complex than that. By a little more complex I really mean A LOT more complex - even manipulated markets.
Do you know what systematic risk is? It's not risk from lackluster watch sales.
look at the advance decline line for the market last week 2/3rds of the Daq was Up on the week. My point is this is not the sell all things that its being made out to be. Its sele APPL and the oil patch. Could it turn in to more you bet ya, but it isnt yet.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/21/nearly-60-of-the-sp-500-compan...
Uh-huh as 60% of S&P falls to correction levels. While true a few stocks have held up the index, now that the tide is going out we'll see who's nutsack is showing
The ADV/DEC line is simply ONE measurement of market breadth. One should review all sources of breadth data before coming to a conclusion about its implications.
This bubble market can easily drop a lot more despite anything imaginable the fed thinks it can try to do. Now it's money talks and b*llsh*t yellin' walks.
The market, along with the dollar, is going to go south of Heaven. Might not be Monday but soon enough it will.
The market reminds me a lot of online poker. You could literally provide iron-clad statistical proof that none of the deals were random, but were instead designed solely to maximize the profit of the house, and yet the idiots kept depositing money. These markets are like that more and more.
Is the house playing poker now? I thought they just get the rake...
So many ways to win! 30-1 on double sixes! Come or Pass line! Try your luck!
It's just your 401K/I.R.A. defined contribution plan! Retirement and Rainbows!
3 funny things about the casino if you want to win. First you have to know how to play the game, secondly you have to know how to bet, and most importantly, you have to know when to leave.
Played in a real casino today. Slot poker. Buffalo Bill's, State Line (Primm Valley).
put $20 in.
got four four of a kinds in three minutes. Suddenly I had $100. Kept playing, had seven full houses, twenty three of a kinds.
Cashed out.
Left with better than $600.
I won't put a dollar into Wall Street and keep the cash I have in a fucking bank as close to zero as I can keep it.
{Edit: I should add, I went with $1,000 I was prepared to lose. Hotel, drinks, keeping the wife happy. I actually came home about $100+. But I did this knowingly. I knew the house had the advantage and that I was making a concious choice to gamble.}
Don't put all your eggs in a one day basket is my best advice, the casinos only have to pay back 10% on slots, that can't last, try craps and stand in there for as long as you can.
I just saw some episodes of a new cable TV series, "Mr. Robot." This series is senseless, events taking place in a twilight zone sort of world. Episodes are technically well done with fine New York City location photography. But the characters and situations bear almost no relation to reality. The lead character, Elliot, wears a hoodie, is detached most of the time from others to the point of autism and is a computer genius working for a big corporation. At IMDb, viewers have give the series high ratings.
"Mr. Robot" reminds me of what is going in the world financial markets. Unreality has replaced market forces. Instead of being uncommunicative most of the time like Elliot, we have the reverse situation with stock market experts as they "clearly" describe why stock and commodity prices go up and down. The problem for me is that, while these "talking heads" provide plenty of facts that are surface details, these Captain Obvious facts are about as useful as the few words of dialogue Elliot has in the TV series. None of the information makes any real sense.
For real world facts that affect the markets, look at the situation in the countries bordering on the Mediterrean. Over there, a refugee crisis worse than any since World War II. Literally hundreds of thousands of people are on the move to Europe to escape the war zones in Libya, Ethiopia, Sudan, Somalia and even as far south as Mali. Almost the whole of North Africa is on fire. Death squads, jihadists, mercenaries, druglords and destruction rule the land. Like Elliot, the Wall Street experts in the media, but especially on the TV news shows, ignore the real world. Commentators living in an artificial construct, just like an episodic TV series.
I don't know how "Mr. Robot" will turn out. Maybe Elliot will wind up as a U.S. Senator. He is qualified for that job. Just like Senator Harry Reid (who has yet to explain the severe beatdown he sustained after the Bundy ranch takeover went bust). In the real world outside the studio lot, everything points to an unhappy ending. Not just for the "Mr. Robot" fictional Evil Corporation but for big corporations with many real shareholders. Shareholders who would be converting their shares to cash if World War III spreads to outside the Middle East environs. The bombing last week of the shrine in Bangkok followed days later by the attempted machine gunning of passengers on a train in France point to one command center ordering terrorist attacks world wide. Near "double bang" attacks by proxy forces of nation states trying to trigger global war.
Hosea 8:7 - For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind.
You write intelligently.
Why the fuck are you still watching TV shows?
They call it 'Programming' for a reason.
I was thinking the same. It is amazing how many smart people waste on TV. And sports. Ugh.
if one is still engaged with the 'normal' human population, one would need to be aware of the programming. i, for one, am still trying to wake people up, though i'm growing increasingly weary.
How do you know I watch TV regularly? Don't assume. I saw these episodes as bittorrent files based on a recommendation that the series was conspiracy related. It really isn't. Thanks for the comment about my writing, whether accurate or not. Don't blast all television. TCM just aired the 1933 movie "The Narrow Corner," a great pre-Code movie. And the network nightly news is okay if I want to find out about the weather across the country.
Come on old Yellerin, make it rain!!!
God help us. Unfortunately I think the U.S. burned that bridge.
Fuel to the flame. But they'll do it anyway from the safety of their lairs.
God help us, indeed. Roughly 2% of the Americans alive right now are prepared physically, mentally, and spiritually for the tribulations to come.
Yikes that is so true, I shudder to think. Read "One second after" for all the gory details.
Overall "investors" will sell stocks and go into short-term Treasuries (even though they are also in for a crash in the long run). USD goes up, stock markets keep going down, oil and natural gas goes down, PM will probably also go down.
So: USD is set to rally. Stocks and commodities goes south big-time.
Your avatar is in extremely poor taste.
It's going down, sir!
Who said that? Who the fuck said that? Who's the slimy little communist shit, twinkle-toed cocksucker down here who just signed his own death warrant? Nobody, huh? The fairy fucking godmother said it. Out fucking-standing. I will screw you all until you fucking die. I'll screw you until your assholes are sucking buttermilk.
Was it you, you scroungy little fuck, huh?
You little piece of shit you look like a fucking worm, I bet it was you.
Well, no shit. What do we have here, a fucking comedian! I admire your honesty. Hell, I like you, you can come over to my house and fuck my sister!
You little scumbag! I got your name, I got your ass! You will not laugh, you will not cry, you will learn by the numbers, I will teach you! Now get with the story line, you better unfuck yourself before I unscrew your head and shit down your neck!
You seem to be the kind of guy who'd cornhole someone and not even have the courtesy to give him a reach-around.
Your name is Private Snowball.
R Lee Ermey should have won an Oscar for Gunny Hartman
Gotta love the Gunnie. ;-)
Most ARMY tankers never lived to tell their story.
Stay away from tall buildings, you're LIABLE to be rained on.
Ww2 49,000 were in armor ,1450 Kia 1/3 killed while doing something outside the tank. M4 had 3.6 kill ratio. Turns out they were pretty good At what they did. From us army records . There were only 4 times a us tank ever ran across a mark 6 tiger , Dad was in the 7th
I love stories like yours!
There is a GOD!
As long as I'm given the privledge to procreate, and secure my offspring, I'm good.
I haven't procreated yet.
A lot of Oklahoma boys worked for Patton. All of them that I ever met had total respect for him, even one who had his toes frozen off in Africa. My dad liked Bradley, thus my middle name.
Met a guy who was at Battle of the Bulge with Patton.
Little guy, still looks like he's in his thirty's. Told me about catching a bomb in his hands. He was standing in the road, heard a whistle and looked up and saw a football, so he automatically caught it. It was a shell, and he carefully set it on the ground and moved off. He said thousands more came over and lit the forest up like the fourth of July. He said he piled some wood up and then dug a hole into the embankment under the road. Where he was, he didn't fire a shot, just endured the shelling.
No point to the story other than to pass his along.
And the award for Best Soundtrack goes to: Full Metal Jacket for their rendition of the children's classic, "M I C K E Y M O U S E."
R Lee Ermey was a Marine DI at Paris Island. He just had to be himself.
Missing meds have you twisted somewhat huh, it's getting dark outside looser, could your end be near?
How is it that it can be "getting dark outside looser?" I mean, "looser" isn't really an adverb anyway, but even in its adjective form, I'd never associate that word with nightfall. What in the world does this mean? "Getting loose" on the dance floor maybe? I don't know.
Up?
Down?
I vote present, sir.
Vote registered, Senator Obama.
Up?
Down?
Up Monday, then look out below.
I'll vote this time tomorrow when China is open.
Kudlow was on saying it's a slight correction on Brinker today. Buy the dip next week (Monday) or within the next 2 weeks. So that's what Bob Brinkers followers will do.
Another investor newsletter said it's gone down this percentage only to make record highs.
So the dip buyers are out there and plentiful.
So many zombie dip buyers now,
So Brinker's gone over to the dark side? Used to like him. Not that he could call every boom and bust, but he's a pretty prudent investor. Not good if he's pow-wowing with Kudlow.
Averaging down is for suckers... and where is the money going to come from?
Kudlow led anyone that followed him right into the 2008 quicksand. Remember all his goldilocks bullshit... he should have never been allowed near a microphone again... but he's Baaa-aack!
What an asshole.
wouldn't surprise me there's another Putin moment, he has a way to doing those
last one, August 2008, invading Georgia set an already declining market on its ear and made the 'Lehman Moment' possible
Those rips aren't gonna make themselves (outside of short squeezes anyway).
Precisely correct. This is headed for NIRP before it's all said and done. But, as with Japan and the Eurozone, that are both ahead of us on the monetary/fiscal crazy train, it will ultimately fail. Then, with any luck at all, we'll finally be able to let the markets get back to work, and the Keynesian will be relegated to the historical scrap heap (where they belong).
NIRP is a forlorn hope.
What else you got?
Down. Down toward realistic valuations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91yrS5PUJBY
Based on my T/A and antiquated P/A charts?
I think the covering going into Asia Sunday night is going to get even worse.
I'm looking at every scenario, and Kuroda & Co. [ BoJ] can't cover Small/Midcap VWAP.
I guess the Tylers got too close?
Rip your face off Monday.
Lets focus on Sunday?
Why I waste my time on toads like you
So when the market disconnects from the Fed's balance sheet and dives...Does that mean we can kill the Fed?
2007/8 the market went up and down before collapse...the fed engineered all of this...if the money changers lose control its 911 on steroids Ww3...and for those in Greece who had gold please tell me who ya gonna sell it to? The banks r closed....
Are we just copying the Japan Model on QE in order to stall out as long as possible?You know,like a few decades of slow economy while all the baby-boomers just keep getting older until the system collapses.So,Japan has lasted how long?Maybe the Fed can stretch'r out a few decades here as well.There's nothing like endless funny money until it's worthless.They call it monetary heroin.
The problem with the Japanese models is that they are not big enough for my baby's baby. He is 3 years old, is 38 in. tall and weighs 40 lb. He's not fat; he's big boned.
The US debt-backed fractional reserve system, and the profit system it upholds, are bound to collapse. May this bring the end of empires and the beginning of a second Middle Ages? Perhaps---but remember, the Middle Ages weren't "dark" for most people. Although scientific and technical knowledge did disappear because there were no large empires to support organized universities and research, the yoke of interest, profit, and taxation (really a disguised form of the previous two) was much reduced.
Here's to hoping that the collapse of the current system happens in an orderly and peaceful fashion, for the sake of human well-being. Even if the end is violent and cataclysmic, there will with any luck be scientifically trained individuals with computers who preserve the knowledge of humanity so that civilization can rise from the ashes quickly. Even in a worst-case collapse scenario where the state merely becomes first among equals in a mafia-land, scientific knowledge will be more valuable in the long term than gold or silver.
Gerald Celente Trends in the news. Markets Melting down.
http://foxmuldar-conservative-thinker.blogspot.com/2015/08/gerald-celent...
meh, QE never ended. This baby will be in free-fall soon enough regardless of how the propagandists spin. Oh yeah, who's gonna buy the dip? Algos? There aren't many humans left in the game.
Volume was not overwhelming for such a move. Many reports about the general public not participating in this "party". Ya id say Algos. With corporate buy-back money
Predicting the future? Tough. Not even Janet or Ben can do it. The Fed has been using very expensive behavioral economic models to manipulate the little people and their little minds. Ninety-five million “investors” are finally feeling some fear…faith in Fed is weakening. All weekend long Janet is getting calls from worried oligarchs and congress. She has called Ben seeking wise counsel from the “Hero”. But if she announces QE4, or even “No hikes in the foreseeable future” before the markets open, the fools will feel good for about an hour. Then everyone will realize the Fed is desperate and is the only major force holding the bubble together. It will be an admission the economy is about to fall apart and even zero rates forever will not fix it. Without full risk-on Fed worship, the party is over.
Long before the market free-fall many posted here that the Fed will never raise rates as this debt-ridden economy would collapse instantly if they did. Bubble home prices would plunge and massive government debts could not be paid off. It was 100% delay and pray tactics, and now time is up. The selloff will cause the reverse wealth effect. The debt-ridden masses will hold off on that new SUV, granite countertops, the boat and the motor home. People will cut back on eating out and the service economy will fall apart.
Powerful bear market rallies all the way down will frustrate the shorts. Talk of more stimuli and more QE will cause mega-rallies, which will burn out quickly. It was all smoke and mirrors.
Yours is most likely scenario. It's a confidence game now - Mr Yellin will try and split the diff as usual with more 'maybe, maybe not now' BS.
Fed got called on Friday - they'll get called again after they buy in big on Monday - mid week it heads South again into Labor Day weekend.
Fed's Bataan Death March has begun.
I used to know a fat chick just like her. Smartest person in the room, but would never make a decision. Smelled of sweat early in the morning. I don't know if girls make smegma, but I think her skin folds secreted a bit of it.
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/smegma?s=t noun Smegma:1.(physiol) a whitish sebaceous secretion that accumulates beneath the prepuce (or clitoral hood). Word Origin C19: via Latin from Greek sm?gma detergent, from smekhein to wash You need to wash it with detergent, I guess, is the original meaning.
Dayum... I watched Red Dwarf all that time in the 80s and had no idea...
Fair value 4500 NPV. Might take a while, though.
Random thought looking forward: is the S&P going to follow B/S as the Fed sells USTs in to a risk-off environment; or is the Fed going to take advantage of a risk-off environment as the S&P drops and sell USTs to decrease their B/S?
They have to extinguish USDs somehow if they "expect" to raise rates. Is this why we saw sideways price action in USTs Thur/Fri during the equity sell-off? Was it Fed-managed selling to offset demand, keeping prices constant?
What am I missing?
Worse, the next leg up in stocks in this Pavlovian market, may well require the Fed doing precisely what we have said all along is the next inevitable step: QE4.... then 5... then 6...
ah yes, the sound of inevitability. they were always lying, and maybe even to themselves to some degree. future actions of the fed are (and have been for the past seven years) absolutely predictable with 100% certainty.
Obviously we will have QE4, QEinfinitum. But mark my word, the next round(s) will be marketed under a shiny new name. 3's are psychologically powerful; strike 1, strike 2, strike 3, your OUT!
Any suggestions for possible BS names ZHers?
Freedom-Eazing?
QuEasy™
zh already named it full intervention-tard
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-11/how-boj-stepped-143-times-send-...
Ha! Okay but even old Yeller knows that you never go full retard!
(Referenced here for future generations)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7wVagQ_LVd4
Old Yeller, doesn't call the shots.
BTW, how's that throat cancer treating you Jamie?
Fair market value should be in the 5000 range or maybe even lower.
Consider the fact that the only reason the stock market rebounded in 2008 was because of QE and everything sense then has been a lie and manipulation of the markets then that's where it will go back to.
Unless there is MOUR lies and manipulation and QE.
Fair market value on the usdx should be in the 80's, if you really factor inflation.
This article appears to be antithetical to ZH's view that it's the flow and not the stock that matters. Can you clarify?
In other words, without further flows of QE, stocks should continue to decline to fair value based on DCF, which may or may not be at a relative level to the Fed's balance sheet (but is likely much lower).
In other words, you're suggesting that the by-product of QE was value based?
In laymans terms, you're suggesting that QE-whatever it is, is better than the current "status -quo"?
Ya know, there's an old proverb> Never bite off moar than you can chew.
I"m saying that without the flow of QE, values revert to those based on DCF, regardless of the stock on the Fed balance sheet.
What's DCF?
FRB: Quarterly Report on Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Developments
Sorry, YC, DCF stands for discounted cash flows. Looks like this was sorted out below.
Thanks. I appreciate you taking the time.
It still doesn't explain the over all picture though. How can you have discounted cash flow with ZIRP.
I realize you have "time decay" like options and the obvious preset [f/x] exchange rates.
Maybe the differential is based on volatilaty of forward rates, or delta on the term?
That is the premise of Tyler's Stock / Flow statement. I agree with it. However, how does one know that the PPT team is just buying without any announced QE.
Thanks . In all honesty, I was in the dark on that one.
I was just using the macro, Fed. statistics to understand flows. I appreciate your help. :-)
For the near future...on Monday the stock market is going to tank again...then the powers to be who convened this weekend will due a power ramp up...and then the wise pundits will say...yea the market got ahead of itself...this correction was needed...and now is a wonderful opportunity to pick up some real bargains...
ZH - you are asking ALL THE WRONG QUESTIONS.
This is the start of a serious Bear Market. The kind of market where people take major losses and funds go out of business. Nobody sits around asking theoretical questions in a serious Bear Market.
The question you should be asking - WHO's in serious trouble?
Because some funds already are.
The whole damn thing is in serious trouble,
The collapsing economy, including the forthcoming collapse of the market and many big companies, is working in Trump's favor.
He has already been benefiting from it with his criticisms of past trade deals, vow to bring back quality jobs, stopping the flow of illegals, penalizing companies for shipping jobs to Mexico, etc.
But when the economic collapse is staring everyone in the face and even the MSM can't hide it, who are people going to turn to in hope of restoring the US economy?
Not saying Trump necessarily has the answers, but when people are looking for someone to guide rebuilding the US economy and help restore their personal finances, how many would pick Clinton, or Sanders, or Biden, or Bush, or Carson, or Walker, or Cruz over Trump?
All the candidates currently running are either capitalist true believers or social democrats. We don't have anyone who will call out the profit system for what it truly is: a corrupt outgrowth of the debt-backed money system which funnels 45% of the output of labor to itself..
Trump needs to do more to connect the dots for the working poor.
TRUMP will NOT be President..... He is not in the club.... It will be another Bush / Gore bs vote in Florida with Clinton/Bush against Trump...making you think YOU HAD A VOTE.....QUIT believing in hope...they control everything at this point and everyone is FUCKED...
Only was to take back control is to kill the system...
The programmers, the coordinators, the community organizers, the pollsters, the politicians, the current elected officials, every government official and everyone having anything to do with voting keeps their mouths shut about massive amounts of voter fraud? Yeah, that totally makes sense.
There's nothing "fair" about it still being 10,000 fucking dow points above where the real economy lies. Despite the squawking of the elite about big, bad deflation, that spread is the inflation hammer hammering the head of the working poor.
I just gotta say, I can't WAIT until Monday!!! Man! Let it sink in.....the magnitude of a 530 point drop in the Dow in one day. It's like 2008 all over again. I am laying in several extra cases of popcorn for next week, because it's gonna be one for the record books.
MAN!!! I Cant WAIT!!!!
Long term there may be an issue.
Leadership to the rescue!
http://www.denk-bubbles.com/leadership
The way I always looked at any market is that there are two fundamentals.
One is value, and the other is the buyer,
Forget the seller and forget price.
I got offered 250 Chinese flat screen 43" connected TV's at under $140 each.
Good buy, in normal times, but right now, the only thing I am thinking about, is for the hassle involved in payment shipment and searching for buyers in a depressed market.
Fuck it, offered $50 each, they turned it down so i walked .
Stawks. Forget fundamentals, although even if this tiny drop meant they inched nearer to real fundamentals, they have s fucking cliff to go over yet.
Buy now, ????? stawks, fucking hell, just where the fuck to you expect to find some moron with enough cash to buy them. Just who the fuck has a trillion hanging around to buy enough stawks to drive the price back ip.
Fucking yellen is who, What will the shit for brains Fed do, My bet is on printing next month with the most ridiculous bollox spewing out of their mouths to try to justify it.
Because by mid Sept it will be down another 10 to 15 % and that shit will scare the dumb fucks silly because its clear that their is NO FLOOR then, for the simple reason their will be zero nada, not a single buyer anywhere at any fucking price.
So if any half wit tells you buy stawks, try this, Tell the idiot you have some stawks and you will sell personally to him at a 5% discount if he buys right now.
That will shut the fucker up.
When buyers of stawks or Chinky TV's come hammering on my door is when to buy and not before at any price over 50% of cost.
Simple and to the point. Next!
I like you. But you aren't teaching your son, you preach either to a vacuum or to fools.
You have to find another channel to run your business. This is of course what the fools fear most... father.
off topic : http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/news/2015/08/21/feds-bust-wells-fargo...
Thank Jah Hee Zuds we've got peoples like Suze Orman, who be understanding whats Mudder Goose needs to be doin down at de FED.
Obviousleee Mudder Goose and the Bored ov Gubners gots to be movin dat green line in dat last chart up, so the mer volitile line can be free to rise again, jus like Jah Hee Zuds. Suze Orman is my profit.
What, the fake market?
What, the fake market?
What, the fake market?
500 x 1oz Silver Vienna Philharmonic Master Box €7,159.69
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From an avg joes point of view.
The avg joe probably has about 5000$ to invest in the stock market.
If avg joe picked a stock that could say potentially see a 6% gain YOY
That 5000$ investment would turn into about 5300$
So the investor (joe) is risking 5000$ in the market to make 300$.
Now factor in 2% inflation so 100$ of "gains" evaporates.
So it was a 5000$ risk for 200$ profit.
To me the risk reward ratio sucks.
If it was say a 5000$ risk for a 2000$ profit... maybe then I would be interested.
Thats if you are chasing capital gains.
Now lets say if you were chasing dividends.... most stocks offer garbage dividends (1cent ~20cents a share)..... so to make anything worth your time you would need millions or hundreds of thousands at least to dump into the market (good luck getting that money back out once its in) lol
As it stands the stock market (to me atleast) is something you dump a few hundred buck in so that you can day trade on your phone while on the train or waiting in line at the grocery store... its a game like bejeweled and if online gambling was legal in my state, TRUST ME I WOULD BE PLAYING BACCARAT or online poker INSTEAD because the odds of a return are much better and based on variables that I can control... (odds).
I mean lets say you made 1000$ a year off dividends.
That would mean that youhave like.... 100,000 shares of some XYZ firm that you probably bought at around 5~20$ each.
Its a horrible investment with a lot of risk there are a lot safer ways to make 1000$ a year without risking such large sums of capital.
Its the job of the MSM news to push stocks onto buyers, the big fish pay a lot of money to these MSM outlets to draw volume to specific stocks so that THEY can unload onto "retail investors". lol its just a game and if you cant see through it....
With inflation as high as it is , the incentive to invest in stocks for a return dwindles because any "gains" you get will be wiped out by the loss of purchasing power inflation causes ... right now you have over 5% inflation a year in basic items, (I bought a bundle of printer paper for 17$ at staples yesterday the legal size paper..(I would not of bought it under normal circumstances but I needed it ASAP)).... you would have to make 10~30% returns in the market or its not worth the time... and with returns like that the risks goes exponentially higher.
When the average American understands the FRAUD that is the Stock Market it won't matter what the Fed does. A few more days like Friday combined with no growth might start to enlighten some Folks.
aren't there always a new batch/generation of suckers? you know that people like us are just uneducated ignoramuses and aren't fit to participate. that's how they get the young ones pulled into it
It depends upon what the reason for the pullback is or becomes. If it is because investors have awakened to the dangerous conditions in the global economy (China, oil, Central Banks, etc) and the rigged nature of the market then it will fall a lot further and stay there until it is fixed. If it is because they are just trying to let a little air out to make it look like a real market then it won't go much lower and won't last long.
This article is misinformed: the idea that markets are driven by the Fed is just plain wrong. The Fed has ALLOWED a frenzied market rally to happen, by not pulling the rug out from underneath it, but it was investors (buyers and sellers) that actually did the bidding. In other words the Fed made the 'cinema' look more attractive and enticed a few more punters in to watch the show, but it as the punters' natural desire to 'watch movies' in the first place that really made it happen. On the flip side the Fed won't be able to stop people panicking when someone shouts 'fire' no matter how many QEs they throw at it. It's totally natural for markets to go up and down with or without the Fed. The Fed can either accentuate that or flatten it out: this time round they've helped push the market up higher than it otherwise would have gone, which only means it has further to fall now. We're now already at the start of the next bear market and there's absolutely nothing the Fed can do about it. Think about it - their biggest worry now is they are behind the curve. So as markets drop 10% they'll be thinking: 'we can't panic now, we'll look weak, anyway it'll only be a small correction'. The market rebounds a bit, then plunges 20%. Now they're thinking hmm, what should we do? By the time they've thought of something to do it's down 30%. Now they act, but the market is so spooked it's down 40%. Finally they pull out the 'bazooka', the market is down 50% and the whole silly game can start again. New bull market, new bs. Good luck suckers.
Market will BOUNCE this week. For those of you drooling over the prospect of a massive crash, save it. The real PANIC will not begin until QE4 FAILS and the SUZE MORONS of the world realize there is no one to "save" them...