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Marc Faber: The Global Economy Is Entering An Epic Slump
Submitted by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,
Famed investor and author of the Gloom, Doom, Boom Report, Marc Faber, returns to the podcast this week to discuss the slowdown in the global economy, signs of which he claims are multiplying fast all around the world.
He predicts the next year is going to be an especially bruising one for investors, and recommends a combination of diversification and defense for those with financial capital to protect:
I do not believe that the global economy is healing. I believe that the global economy is heading into a slump once again.
We have a slowdown practically everywhere and if you take out the fudging of statistics, the economy for the median household everywhere in the world is not doing particularly well. If the global economy were doing so fantastically well, how would it be that commodities collapsed to the extent that they have declined? Or how would it be that the currencies of American markets and some of them have actually declined by more than 50 percent against the U.S. dollar in the last three years. How would this happen? So I do not believe that we have a healing of the global economy. On the contrary, I believe that the global economy is slowing down and that essentially equity markets are not particularly attractive.
Preceding every bubble, you have a huge expansion of credit. That was the case in the period ’97 to 2000, and in the period 2003 to 2007, and on previous occasions in economic history. In the case of China, credit as a percent of the economy has grown by more than 50% over the last five years, which is essentially a world record. And in my view, its economy is slowing down rapidly. I had a drink with a friend of mine the other day who has car dealerships, luxury car dealerships, in China. He said sales have hit a brick wall. Not 'slowed down'; a brick wall. And indeed, exports were down and car sales were down in July. I think that this will then spill over again into other emerging economies because China is a large buyer of commodities and a large trading partner to other countries.
I travel extensively. I can see roughly what is going on. So I really believe that the American market complex is not doing well at the present time. And everywhere, people basically are faced with rising costs of living and essentially declining currencies so that the persons in power goes down. So it's not a pretty picture.
Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with Marc Faber (37m:21s)
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I still have checks!
That shouldn't be funny;)
In the linked article below...just one chart showing the termination of 0-64yr old population increases (cummulative) for all OECD + China, Russia, and Brazil. The ROW (rest of world) population growth is slowing and can't make up the demand destruction difference. Growth is dead and debt as the substitute has gone bezerk but the debt increases coming will be stupendous...(and PM's should be the flip side of the debt coin but there's an awful lot of questions if that winning lottery ticket will be allowed to be redeemed).
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/08/population-growth-will-never-be-fix-to.html
China vs. OECD
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-chinese-mirage-no-different-than.html
Even todays population drivers, India and Indonesia are moving into declining young populations...obviously it will take a while to work through but the headwaters are going negative nearly everyhwere...and in a system premised on perpetually larger markets, debt, and consumption...big trouble.
Everything is changing...how this unwinds is a scary question. Still, the way I look at it is governments and CB's will work together to eventually allow central bank purchasing of nearly everything in lieu of organic demand. CB's infinite buying of MBS, T's, plus stocks, RE, CRE, etc. will maintain pricing. Given demographics have peaked, there will never be a buyer for these "assets" ... thus this perpetual float reduction means these assets are essentially being thrown in a black hole of monetization.
<--I still love Czechs
<--I still love Chex
;-D
"Still, the way I look at it is governments and CB's will work together to eventually allow central bank purchasing of nearly everything in lieu of organic demand. "
Central banks and governments have been in a coordinated effort to, "muddle through".
the problem is...
Human nature is still in play so those that have the ability to not play well with others will and have been upsetting the apple cart of, "coordination".
Great man,
and he speaks gute Anglish.
And he spends most of his time riding around on his scooter with pony-tail flying in the wind toting around young beautiful Thai women. My hero. It's no wonder why he is laughing out loud all of the time.
It's no wonder why he is laughing out loud all of the time.
Because of what the young Thai women are doing to him??????
Seriously though, if America and other OECD countries, instead of amortizing their own workers and infrastructures (particularly the US and UK), then it stands to reason if the China so-called growth engine sputters, and all the othr countries' amortizing went there, we is in a heap big of trouble!
If he is living cheap in Thigh-land with young women around him... then maybe he is a good role model.
Maybe I can get used to living under military rule if that is the way things are going.
The ES afterhours is currently trading 10 points off it's lows during N.Y. This party is just getting started.
haaaaaa, shit on em marc.
Even a broken clock is correct twice a day
Those kinds of clocks are barbarous relics.
Max Keiser is calling it Shemitah Shock and he predicted this also. Why are all of these people who have these Shemitah theories so accurate their predictions as of late?
Beats the Shemitah out of me...
I had a Shemitah once, it got eaten by a Great Dane,,,
;-D
Shemitah? Keiser is nuts. What has the Shemitah cycle, which is only followed in Israel and not by a majority, to do with global markets? He is insane but he is funny.
Ehh, they got plenty of other peoples money still left to spend...
If you look at the M1 Money Supply Velocity in 1990 under H.W. Bush something happened.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1V
Then in 1996 looks like the FED and the Banks got it figured out and velocity took off.
Then there was the Dot.com Crash, and Bind Crash with Recession in 2001/2002.
Then looks like the FED and the Banks got it figured out again and took Velocity even higher on an even bigger bubble till the Crash in 2008.
- FED can Still do TAF Auction Facility and all the other programs they have
- Sure as shit, the federal government will continue with FISCAL Stimulus
- There is still some Can Kicking to Go
What happened was the financial version of what Alan Greenspam called "productivity gains" i.e. the adoption of ATM cards in the 90's and then debit cards, then direct deposit, and finally Reg E amendments and Check 21.
Although I am sure an economist could blow smoke up your ass and find something else to attribute it to...
I guess I am a little lost as I woke up early and have no concentration at this point. I have used a remittance transfer only one time in my life... so not sure how many people are affected by this. I guess you mean something about US Citizens getting horse fucked by Banks.
A lot of stuff changed in Clinton Era as Banks got whatever legislation they wanted and got Greenspam to agree with whatever plan they had regarding derivatives, ending Glass-Steagal, Sub-Prime Housing Market and Securitization and other stuff too. IPOs for Tech that earned no Income.
SO I'm thinking you are looking at 1996 era forward.
I had an ATM Card in the 1980s and got used to it. By 1986 I was using Credit Cards.
----
Summary of the final remittance transfer rule (amendment to
Regulation E)
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has issued rules to protect consumers who send money electronically to foreign countries. These transactions are called “remittance transfers.” The new rules take effect on October 28, 2013
It's 0230 here and my concentration is shot too. Your chart is actually simply this chart divided by this chart (need to zoom into 3-5 year periods in each to see what's actually going on). So going back to your original post and what the Fed "figured out" in the mid 90's was that when you stop printing money like a madman the "velocity" increases, ceteris paribus. However, it doesn't happen in a vacuum- since GDP growth isn't constant and the technological changes mentoned in my post which allow the actual speed of monetary turnover to increase also fluctuate.
China puts a 100% mark up on imported cars, too. Actually all imports have at least a 100% mark up. China cares about people in the Peop;e's Republic.
Asia is the future. Coughy Marc likes it here, I've heard. Fantastic people with long tradition, rich culture, a capacity for work and endurance. Their philosophies despise the tricky west and quick expertise. Keynesianism may make the round eyes look very good while the wild-man military punching anything the deep state wishes to admonish keeps them at the table.
They know that "this too shall pass". Their culture is resilient throughout wealth or poverty. Life can be good at both spectrum ends. Economics, finance, indicators, trends, blah! blah! blah! Everyone knows the whole system is stinky rotten, dead and grotesque. Just clinging to pretensions now.
Debt, paper money, official corruption, deep state and deep crime are well in their rear view mirror. Well known, the outcome as well. It is only the waiting and crying that must come to pass.
Honor and face hold a greater part of mindshare than gilded facades. The west would rather look good than be good.
I do like, "the scent of green papaya" for metaphorical reminder.
Wow. IS that irony or what? You earn a upvote for sublime sarcasm or mind-boggling obliviousness.
Dindu, when the shit gets this real you just have to laugh or you'll cry.
Let's all hope for a race / civil war. Every decent white man is seething with resentment towards gov't, progressives and blacks.
Been watching for downvotes to your post. Been an hour or so without a single one. Telling.
16 minutes is not an hour.
Might wanna check the ol' time stamp before making similar comments.
You are right. Been trying to edit that since the minut I posted. Didnt mean to saybI was watching for an hour, thought it had been up for one. Kept getting kicked out, reset, etc. Still dont have an "edit" option even though logged in. Sorry. Really try to shoot straight here. Will be more careful in future.
the problem with yur theory is that the chinese credit expansion leaves keynesians to shame
Been waiting 5 years for this.
I've been laughed at, called names, etc. The best are the Obola supporters, still singing the everything is fine meme, despite that a few I know personally have lost jobs in the last two years.
Just wait 'til Q3 economic numbers start rolling in. Luxury car sales hit a brick wall in China, eh? How about sales of F-150's and SUV's here in the States, right now. Some dealers are going into panic mode, right about now, according to friends in that biz.
As a side note, I shopped at a Kohl's on Friday afternoon. Expected a full parking lot what with back-to-school going on, maybe even some Canadians looking for bargains.
What a sick fucking joke. Normally I order online from them, but decided to pay them a visit. Selection cut in half from what I remember, and, go figure, the higher-priced quality stuff I was looking for was nowhere to be found. The customer service desk is three times bigger than it used to be, and there are 4 registers now va. the 6 they used to have.
So less selection, scant quality, and 20 fucking racks of Buffalo Bills and Syracuse swag.
/rant
Forgot to describe the clientele...
A smattering of old people looking for bargains, some Spanish speakers, and what appeared to be very few people doing any back-to-school shopping. School starts the Tuesday after Labor Day.
Just another Recovery Bummer.
Schools and school busses up and running here in South West Florida.
Kohls is on 52 week low, stock price is like 30% discount today.
Deep sympathy man. Every time I've opened my mouth I've been jeered at. Now there is silent bitterness towards the smart ass who was proven right...
Good anecdote. The owner of Kohl's is former Wisconsin billionaire socialist Senator Kohl (retired from senate few years ago) so I don't feel sorry for Kohl's, only the unemployed he helped create.
OT: San Antonio police captain Michael Gorhum, a 25-year veteran from the department, committed suicide last week after his email was leaked in a massive hack that exposed nearly 37 million email addresses on the Ashley Madison website, reports the International Business Times. The leaks included the users' email addresses, phone numbers, payment information and stated sexual desires.
But it's unclear if the captain, who oversaw the San Antonio Regional Intelligence Center Unit, actually was using the website and if the death was related to the data breach.
- Start of Ashley Madison Slump, or Nailgun Accidents?
Hmmmm....TV88s. Are you suggesting this AM flap is being used as cover for convenient staged suicides?
Just an Idea spouses could buy Nailguns and use them on the Cheating Spouse.
I don't have the link, but read an article today based out of Toronto that two suicides may have been related to the hack.
Prostitution goes back into history and no one has ever eliminated it. I knew a maitre d in Palm Springs in the mid 80s, he was a connected guy and been around. He told me the secret service used to procure hookers for JFK when the Pres vacationed at the Annenberg Estate. I had no reason to doubt him. I like JFK as a kid and still respect him. It appears that many men who rise above others may have increased testosterone levels. Do you negate the good a man may have done by a roll in the hay with a stranger?
I am not God, I do not know, but there are a lot of women and children who may be suffering now that may not be if they would have left this in the closet.
There will me more deaths and ruined lives over this. Was it worth it? No. Will legislation help like the war on poverty and drugs? No.
Just watched a video on JFK to 911, Rich man Tricks.
Put JFK in a pretty good light. Seems like many knew JFK was fooling around and likely his wife knew it and accepted it.
It is one thing for a Hypocrite to pass judgement on other people... we don't mind when they get caught for stuff. But I tend to think more like Europeans that sex life is not everyone's business. Adults should be allowed Self Determination and laws should not prohibit sex. Communities can go too far with judging and condemning Adults based on Value Judgements. The real concern is kids and protecting kids from bad examples. On the other hand lots of adults want to protect kids, women, mothers from the Realities of the World. Adults shouldn't have to live in the shadows and hide behavior that is legal.
USA has a kind of Shadow Side. We hide drug uses, marijuana use, alcohol use, domestic abuse, poor marriages, and even abusive parents. We need more light and acceptance in the USA.
What was the JFK to 911 Doc you watched?
Prolly this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1Qt6a-vaNM
Lol u go witb prossies to avoid this kind of sgit
Elevated testosterone levels without the morals to match is nothing to brag about, and still gets you in trouble in the good old USA. But the use of guilt is just as evil as the deed, and the usefulness of using guilt and the results from shaming people will continue as long as there is some kind of gain from it. It's a sad loop.
sooo, yer saying it was ok as long as the lie to the wife and kids, their money was pissed away and kids were neglected by dad was kept a secret...and we wonder why we can't quite figure out what went wrong wrt the ethical compass.
Shame has been useful in keeping many a girl from getting knocked up, we used to openly call them hussy's and flooseys, home wreckers...it worked. Now we call it bieng "judgemental" but society has a role to play when it comes to judgement. We drive around all day judging people and if you say you don't you are a god damn liar and a fraud.
YES
"negate the good a man may have done"
most people making good coin (i.e. bankers, lawyers, politicians) aren't doing good, they are doing evil. so what say you?
It depends on their level of understanding with regard to the true impact of their actions. Take scientists for example, who may make some sort of weapon without knowing it because each person contributed only a piece of the whole they did not understand.
Lawyers and politicians don't make good coin either. Bankers are currency conjurers, but everybody's gotta work to live. That's the way it goes. Don't get caught up with the slower rats.
My mother was a newspaper reporter and her editor was Pierre Salinger. He told her many shocking stories what went on in the JFK White House.
I guess at that time they felt the need to cover up scandals of that nature. Frankly, if the same were happening today I would rather not know, assuming the nature of it would be far worse than I could imagine in the Obama administration.
Miffed
The scandal is that Obama is gay and Moochele is a tranny. And both are Alinskyite commies who hate white people.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/07/obama-cousins-senat...
So much more. He's the grandson of a Jewish banker. The son of a CIA agent and member of a radical movement. Did no one vet this guy?
Obama has 44 confirmed cousins in the senate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JylzNs7Bo0Q
Obama the xenophobia - Dr. James David Manning
"- Start of Ashley Madison Slump, or Nailgun Accidents?"
....and that's why I date my right hand.
Faber would be alot more believable if he had two Pattya babes at his side.
I've liked listening to Faber before, but maybe I noticed he has few points per minute... as he translates his thoughts or as he enunciates or something.
I just checked a few minutes of this one so far. Kind of slow.
He's finally right. About time.
How many epic slumps does that make, that he's predicted?
At least one per year since when he started, right?
Not sure, he has probably been doing this for 20 years like David Stockman and Peter Schiff.
Slump?
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA
Now stop making fun of Faber’s Follies…the man has an envious record of predicting the past! Duh! I think we ALL know there is nothing without continuous central bank intervention. The “recovery” was all bullshit, etc. The Fed will never hike rates more than 25bps, and that is only so that they can cut them again in 30 days at Dow 8k. People I talk to, that is those that weren’t stopped out at the open, still have faith in Fed. They remain all in, “The Fed will intervene soon…they have too.” It will take a lot more fear to drive the lemmings over the cliff. Sure the PPT rescued the markets early on, and then backed out of their trades later to prevent a -2000 day, but hard to see the Fed doing QE after telling everyone how f***ing successful all their actions have been. Hell, Ben is a f***ing “hero”! “The economic recovery is strong…we need to hike rates…uhmmm, well, maybe we will wait..errrh, well, I mean…okay, looks like we need QE4,5 and 6.” That is a total admission they lied, and they are failures. Any pop will be very short-lived, as smart money will bail. The deck chairs have been rearranged for the last time…the water is up to the main deck.
Investment bankers, lawyers and academics, what could go wrong?
Marcopolis interview with Dr, Faber:
http://www.marcopolis.net/the-big-picture-with-marc-faber.htm
Thanks for uploading. Always good to have a listen to Dr. Faber