This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Is This The Next Dollar Peg To Fall?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On Monday, we showed you the dramatic visual evidence in support of Kazakh PM Karim Massimov’s contention that "at the end of the day, most of the oil-producing countries will go into the free floating regime [including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates because] for the next three to five, maybe seven years, the price for commodities will [not] come back to the level that it used to be at in 2014." 

Expectations for an FX regime change in Saudi Arabia in the face of a ballooning budget gap and the first current account deficit in a decade are readily apparent in riyal 12-month forwards and just to drive the point home, have a look at the following, which shows that anticipation for a dirham deval is running at a veritable fever pitch: 

For more on the genesis of the "new era", see "Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar."

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:00 | 6466570 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Petrodollar death........sheeesh

 

as long as the antichrist gets it in the head

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:08 | 6466602 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Gaudy Saudi's...

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:16 | 6466642 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

I'm sure the Saudis (scum sucking psycho terrorist fucks that they are who deserve to have their backyards turned into glass parking lots) want some revenge for having all their gold stolen that had been stored in London which is now most likely residing in China.  They deserved it.  But they still could cause major damage to the petro-dollar.  They could end it completely. 

Ready for WWIII, folks? 

Long cans of baked beans. ;-)

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:16 | 6466912 philipat
philipat's picture

They will end it completely by soon agreeing that China, it's largest customer, will buy crude in CNY.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:52 | 6467034 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

So your vision of the future is that the Saudi Inbred Family will be shouldering their way forward through the millions of locals fleeing the Yuan in order to take a Royal ass-raping currency-wise? Okay.

I'm not buying it, but okay.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:29 | 6467268 delacroix
delacroix's picture

you can't rape the willing

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:20 | 6466928 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

I'm with you, it's coming apart.  The oil producers can't get the oil back high to make money so they have to go for broke and Saudi has hurt themselves and lost all their gold and their investments of the petrodollar are worth what the US will allow them to have. 

 

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:41 | 6467163 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Serves the fuckers right.

Remember 73!

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 02:26 | 6467432 Really20
Really20's picture

I hope that Saudi Arabia collapses soon in tribal warfare. It is the epitome of what the top 0.01% want to make the US, a country ruled by princes and businessmen in which the ordinary person has no voice, no hope and no future. Migrant workers, brought to SA by instability that it has itself created by funding terrorism, are even worse off.

Were I the President, I would use the Fifth Fleet (stationed in the Gulf, currently to protect these corrupt kingdoms) to give all of the Gulf emirs and kings a wake-up call.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:02 | 6466571 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

I figured it was only a matter of time before they ended up poor as Spain did after they ran out of silver from the Americas.

If sand was money, they would still spend themselves broke.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:08 | 6466601 booboo
booboo's picture

Inquisitions are expensive, you have know idea what it cost to outfit a torture room and a dungeon, a rack alone will set you back 10 Doubloons.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:49 | 6467301 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

The later Bush can confirm that. He's personally signed-off a hell of a lot of fully furnished torture chambers all over the planet.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:09 | 6466608 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Saudi Arabia is remarkably similar to the US.  In both instances, there is a royal class who siphon off the wealth of the country and use if for themselves, leaving just enough for the general population not to revolt.  

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:43 | 6467005 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

<< Inquisitions are expensive >>

That's exactly why the Saudis don't bother with expensive trials or torture rooms. They simply catch their prey, drag them to the center square, and behead them.

 

No fuss, no muss. It's cheap too.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:46 | 6467172 techpreist
techpreist's picture

Reminds me of my pastor at the church I went to in college. He was doing missions over in Iraq, and while touring a mosque the imam brags about how Moses and Adam are buried there. So the pastor asks how that can be (In the Bible, Moses's last whereabouts are unknown, but many miles to the west at minimum). Next thing he knew he was in the trunk of a car, with the driver stopping at the house of each of the elders to decide what to do with him. In the end they dumped him out in the desert outside the city.

Someone else in the same group was less lucky, so they decided to stop operations after that. It's serious business over there.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:55 | 6467204 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

As someone outside this particular paradigm, what I hear you saying is that your guy who believes in fictional characters was arguing with other guys who believe in fictional characters, about where a fictional character was buried.  And someone got killed over it.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:32 | 6467273 delacroix
delacroix's picture

No, they used real characters, to write their fictions.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 03:33 | 6467321 giovanni_f
giovanni_f's picture

Can there be any doubt that hell exists? Just immagine having to sit at the Clinton's (stolen from the white house when they left dead broke) breakfast table.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:42 | 6467657 Arnold
Arnold's picture

In the Hamptons.

I wouldn't wish the Clinton's special kind of hell on anyone.

How ever the Obamas may have purchased a similar model.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 01:01 | 6467319 newbie vampire
newbie vampire's picture

Dem ragheads do not tolerate any difference of opinion.  There is one "truth" and that is whatever they say.

Yo all try saying sumfing different...................    Just be glad yo all still around to read this.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 01:10 | 6467334 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

Crazy ragheads.  "I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." - Jesus

And Brawndo.

 

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:13 | 6466625 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well that's one way to make sure to get some inflation in the system; make sure the whole world rejects your fiat.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:20 | 6466633 conscious being
conscious being's picture

The Saudis are getting their asses kicked in Yemen.

See "How The Saudi/UAE Invasion Of Yemen Fails" at http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/08/how-the-saudiuae-invasion-of-yemen-...

Lots of links to Houthis infantry with anti-tank weapons taking out Saudi and UAE armor. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtOmEeeW7Lc

The Houthis are even on the offensive inside SA

"Around Jizan in Saudi Arabia, former Yemeni territory, a Saudi engineering platoon was ambushed in leafy terrain (video 3 min, photos). One M88A1 armored recovery vehicle, 1 M2A2 infantry fighting vehicle, 1 Al Shibl armored fighting vehicles, 3 armored bulldozers and 1 smaller tactical vehicle were destroyed."

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:23 | 6466676 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Saudi soldiers? What a laugh. Laziest folks on earth....just want to hang at the mall. 

Imported folks do all the labor so Saudis have forgotten how to do anything. As the country goes BK it will be fun to watch the boys shrivel up. 

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:49 | 6466793 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Shia versus Sunni. Stay tuned. There is more of this story to come.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 01:33 | 6467369 joego1
joego1's picture

shitties vs the snotties

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:27 | 6467628 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Saudis are Wahabi.  In some ways more radical than shiites and certainly suunis.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 01:25 | 6467355 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

1 smaller tactical vehicle was destroyed.

Oh stop it. They killed a camel. Just admit it.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:34 | 6467640 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Kind of funny how there were no Saudis present.  Looks like they all got out and ran.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:21 | 6466663 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

I wonder how this will all play out in the long run.  Resource-rich countries will still have something that other countries need.  Will a worldwide barter exchange emerge from the ashes of several "currencies" that are trying to balance out against each other?  A world standard for oil could be agreed on by OPEC - such as X number of bushels of grain per barrel, or one tonne of copper ore could be the equivalent of one roll of sheet steel.  I guess eventually the CX (currency exchange) can have a tote board with equivalents that any supplier of commodities or finished goods could derive an exchange from.  How many bushels of corn for that hot-rolled steel?  Well, how many barrels of oil would that steel cost - and then extrapolate from there.

 

Or, maybe we'll all descend into a Mad max scenario.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:33 | 6466726 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1.  That is a fair assement.  I don't know either but the USD is WAY overvalued making other currencies look cheap.  I am not sure which one to pick but USD shit has to change.  I am not so sure I want to play but I see it.  

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:19 | 6466924 Johnny Dangereaux
Johnny Dangereaux's picture

Gold might figure in there somewhere...

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:29 | 6466962 Socratic Dog
Socratic Dog's picture

Nah.  i-phones will be the new currency.  Or maybe twitter likes, or some such.

1,000 happy faces for that ton of ore!

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 21:27 | 6466698 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

So I am not the only one seeing this?  Where is the best place to buy foreign currencies?  How do you folks do it?  I don't know where the best deal is and I know what I want to buy because none of this USD valuation bullshit can continue on.  We are on full retard alert.   

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:45 | 6467012 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

I am personally Long Dong.

 

It's a hard currency.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 22:54 | 6467042 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

The dirham, by the way, is the currency unit of the United Arab Emirates, in case nobody has ever heard of the stupid little thing.

And I thought ham was illegal in the ME.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:23 | 6467111 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

It's the currency I get paid in...free of income tax.

I convert the balance of my current account into gold as frequently as achievable. Have done so for 8 years.

Mon, 08/24/2015 - 23:40 | 6467160 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Do you use the little gold ATMs?

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:52 | 6467677 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

No. Premiums are too high...and they don't dispense my preferred medium of 1kg bars.

Www.gold.ae works just fine.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 09:22 | 6468113 Ides of November
Ides of November's picture

What ar you going to do when TSHTF and you need to get out of the UAE quick smart. How on Earth are you going to get out of the UAE with any of your gold!!

Have you got a yacht?!? They certainly won't let you fly out of there with it!!

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:43 | 6467292 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Same here, although i am contemplating buying USD in the short term until it goes supernova and then unwind back into AED and Gold. Anyone got other suggestions?

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 06:57 | 6467687 Dame Ednas Possum
Dame Ednas Possum's picture

Gold now.

Gold tomorrow.

Gold next week.

Gold while the USD(AED) is strong and Au/ Ag has been manipulated down by toilet paper ETFs.

Assuming also that you have a mortgage-free house with a big garden. If not, then you need one of these also.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:05 | 6467218 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

 

 

"...for the next three to five, maybe seven years, the price for commodities will [not] come back to the level that it used to be at in 2014." 

When nations embark on currency devaluation (the U.S. included), do not people begin to look for real things to put their money in? 

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 00:42 | 6467287 delacroix
delacroix's picture

people in venezuela, were buying flatscreens, refrigerators, washers and such.  their motivation had evolved from what to invest savings in, to what can I get for these shit pesos right now.

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 01:21 | 6467347 Free_Spirit
Free_Spirit's picture

surely the more countries deval, the more "normal" the end correction will be, just leaving the US dollar ridiculously overvalued in the end. 

Tue, 08/25/2015 - 08:36 | 6467966 shear
shear's picture

spot is 3.673. 12mo fwd is 3.6836.

 

0.3% difference. Hardly expectation of any meaningful devaluation.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!