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Pending Home Sales Miss, NAR Says Stock Plunge Is Good For Housing Affordability
The US housing market has, inexplicably, been touted by the economy bulls as the bastion of stability and growth in an economy that has otherwise been sinking in recent months (the reality is that the high end of the market continues to be supported by Chinese and other offshore capital flows, while the middle-remains gutted as recently confirmed by a record low homeownership rate and record high asking rents). So perhaps to moderate that euphoria, moments ago the NAR reported pending home sales for July, which printed at half the expected pace of a 1.0% monthly growth, rising 0.5%.
This was also the slowest Y/Y growth in pending home sales since January:
While the overall index remains in comfortable territory, at 110.9 it has risen 7.4% from a year ago, it appears to have hit a resistance level as the July level is below both April (111.6) and May (112.3). The reason? According to NAR's inimmitable chief "economist" Larry Yun, there are simply not enough affordable houses. From the report:
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market began the second half of 2015 on a positive note, with pending sales slightly rising in July. "Led by a solid gain in the Northeast, contract activity in most of the country held steady last month, which bodes well for existing-sales to maintain their recent elevated pace to close out the summer," he said. "While demand and sales continue to be stronger than earlier this year, Realtors® have reported since the spring that available listings in affordable price ranges remain elusive for some buyers trying to reach the market and are likely holding back sales from being more robust. "
In other words, just like the stock market, the leadership group is declining to just those homes purchased by price-indescriminate buyers, while everyone else is left in the dust. However, since this will pull the broader everage higher, the NAR is happy to forecast that the national median existing-home price will increase 6.3% in 2015 to $221,400. It was not added that this would come entirely from the most expensive end. Yun also forecasts total existing-home sales this year to increase 7.1 percent to around 5.29 million. Putting this in context, it is about 25% below the prior peak set in 2005 (7.08 million).
But the biggest surprise came from the following Yun statement: "Uncertainty in the equity markets — even if the Fed raises short-term rates in September — could stabilize long-term mortgage rates and preserve affordability for buyers."
So with China, Larry Summer and the IMF now calling for a rate hike, the NAR - of all entities - is suddenly quite happy to see the recent market rout continue, which would keep rates lower and promote "affordability."
Guess nobody tell Larry that China has now started dumping bonds.
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"Now is a great time to buy!"
Fuck you, Larry.
Another nail in the ZIRP coffin...
"You're killing your father Larry" - Walter {Big Leobowski}
It's time to release... Suzanne
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odQ7s85bk9s
Hey, I remember that line in 2005 ,2006, and 2007.
Moar robust? Well, that settles it.
Lawrence Yun is quite the comedian.
More robust in a high explosives kind of way.......
And the inventory builds are great for consumer choice....
So do you still have to have a job to buy a house, cause I am thinking of becoming a NINJA.
Have they come back out with loans for people like me?
Housing can only crash from here. As interest rates rise, home prices drop. People buy a mortgage payment.
Unless Janet helps out China, housing is always one rate rise from dropping.
pods
So maybe the answer is to let the market fall to zero, then new buyers will be pounding down the doors of their local realtor to buy a new home. What an idiot. He's happy now, but just wait until that yield curve inverst if the fed were to raise rates, then he's be crying like a little bitch.
You realize you're hurling comments at a robot, right?
You remember that old commercial with the cardboard salesman sliding under the door and asking "So, how much software do you want to buy today?"
Like that, but all Larry says is "There has never been a better time to buy a home."
Hey, I wonder if that will work for me.......There has never been a better time than today to buy stawks. Sounds good, I think I'll use it.
I've been doing it for the last 10 years. It works.
Didn't he do Isuzu ads in the 80s?
I love how they show the entire cartridge flying through the air, not just the bullet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic0UejzZDZ8
You mean that bullets don't work that way? I'll believe it when I see it on teevee.
I think so. David Leisure.
$15 dollars ( If your lucky )and hour $250,000+ for an average home ( if your lucky ) obviously Larry is from the school of Common Core math.
Fuck'en idiot.
One of the stupidester statements ever made. Since when is what the markets do a factor for buying a home. I always thought it was the economy and one's income and how one saw one's economic future.
Homes would be cheaper if they weren't being kept off the market.
https://m.research.stlouisfed.org/fred/series.php?sid=EOFFMARUSQ176N&sho...
Like the three houses across the street from me. They have been empty for four years, FOUR FUCKING YEARS! The yards are mowed weekly and no squatters are present at this time. How is it possible to know what a house is worth at this point in the game?
NAR - "A hole in your chest improves breathing."
That's exactly my point with those slimy shit-stained cheerleaders who do nothing but tell you everything is *awesome*.
I think the new generation does not even want to buy a home....they just want to sit on a couch...somewhere...and play with their cell phones.....that is the new generation
They can barely afford rent let alone a house. I had a an 8 month long eviction to get one of these shit stains out of my unit ( Chicago tenant landlord court is a fucking joke) and this guy actualy had a decent job but tons of debt and no self control, always out, new clothes, girls, dinners etc. Thats your next generation right there, Live for the today, screw tomorrow. It doesnt bode well for getting us out of this mess.
Everything is awesome.
The slimy pimps at the National Association of Realtors would represent their great grandmothers to you as "hot young companions" if they thought they could make a dollar doing so.
Larry is such a shilling shyster, do you ever get the feeling he's converted to Judiasm?
We are seeing demand erosion and have been for over a year. I have no idea where these Realtor numbers are coming from. Even multifamily inquiries are on hold as cracks in the rental structure have appeared. Dont be fooled by all the cranes you see and buildings going up - thats 2012 and 2013 money in built form. After this next downturn, and it will be a doozy, I fully expect the 30year mortgage to become a historical artifact only available to the privately wealthy.