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Atlanta Fed Cuts Q3 GDP Forecast To A Paltry 1.2%
Earlier today, following the disappointing July personal spending data and yesterday's record surge in inventories as part of the spike in Q2 GDP, we predicted that the Atlanta Fed would cut its already painfully low Q3 GDP forecast of 1.4%.
Atlanta Fed Q3 GDP update due today: should be a drop from 1.4%
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 28, 2015
Moments ago, it did just that, when the Atlanta Fed GDPNow "nowcast" was revised lower to just a 1.2% annualized growth rate, more than two-thirds below the BEA's first revision of Q2 GDP.
If officially confirmed in two months, this would be the lowest GDP since Q1 2014, and just fractionally higher than the "harsh winter" double-seasonally adjusted GDP print from the first quarter which economists tell swear was due only to harsh weather. So what was the culprit this time: the record hot July?
Here are the reasons:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.2 percent on August 28, down from 1.4 percent on August 26. The forecast for real GDP growth in the third quarter decreased by 0.2 percentage points following this morning's personal income and outlays report from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The slight decline in the model's forecast was primarily due to some weakness in real services consumption for July, which lowered the model's estimate for personal consumption expenditures from 3.1 percent to 2.6 percent for the third quarter.
And while normally this downward would be vehemently opposed by the permabulls, today it comes as a welcome relief as this may be just the catalyst those who are terrified about a market drop "premature" rate hike will latch on to, crying how it would be foolhardy for the Fed to hike rates in a quarter in which GDP is set to tumble.
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So real growth must be below -3.8% as inflation is understated by at least 5%.
In 2014, official inflation was 0.8% and Chapwood inflation was 9.7%. So inflation was understated by 8.9% and GDP overestimated by 8.9%
Forward - to more lies and funny statistics
Good thing that Greece and China are all fixed, else it would be worse.
And if you have an erection for over 4 hours, clap your hands.
clap on clap off clap on!!!!
You need a James-Clapper for that...
Here....
Something to cheer the heat of every ZHer ....
http://www.naturalnews.com/050973_catastrophic_collapse_democrats_voter_...
I'm not sure changing mob affiliation is going to make much of a difference.
You say you got the clap? There is an atibiotic for that.
I will just borrow yours.
Time to start fudging the numbers on that rate increase checklist or else........
@JustObserving,
Why does ZH still use these false GDP numbers when we all know they are lies?
Because Tyler is just reporting the numbers, not making them up himself in his basement.
If you want made up numbers, just drop me a line.
Can you make them really doomish and bleak?
If so, I'm down with that idea.
OK, first number is for free. After that the meter starts running.
Unemployment is higher now than in the Great Depression. Our current rate of unemployment, if measured the way it was back then, would be well over 25%.
Ironically they named it the Great Depression because they thought it sounded better than Recession.......wonder what they'll name this go around?!
I've been trying to come up with something really catchy that I can TM and make money on.
The Greater Diarhea.
The Tinkle On Down Depression.
The Wet Fart FED Created Collapse.
The Greenspan Graft Grab
The Greatest FED FUBAR.
The Bulltard Prole Stuffing.
Every economic statistic is a lie in the land of the free and has been for many years. The economic data is conjured up to inflate the markets as needed as the Wealth Effect of rising stocks is the main driver of the US economy today.
Economic Disinformation Keeps Financial Markets Up — Paul Craig Roberts
The government’s economic statistical agencies are under pressure not to roil the financial markets. Consequently, initial reports, which are always the headline reports, are as close as possible to the “consensus forecast” prepared by economists in the financial sector, whose jobs are to maintain a good atmosphere for financial instruments.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/05/08/economic-disinformation-keeps...
Exactly. I also remember in the mid '90's that if any GDP print was sub 2%, "markets" would crater. Amazing how far we've come to a centrally planned economy.
And it is for that reason that I am confused about anyone who acknowledges the Fed is helping US equities, but can't grasp that they also game foreign markets too. It's part of the overall global control and reserve status thingy.
I WAS TOLD THINGS ARE AWESOME, I WILL CONTINUE TO BELIEVE EVERYTHING IS GREAT. NOTHING WILL STOP ME FROM THIS THOUGHT PATTERN.
I bet those evil Atlanta FED people have Confederate flags and pictures of Jesus on the wall, with handguns on their hips. Why, they might even be HETEROSEXUAL...GASP!......
Hey....don't you think that if Obama had a son he would be gay, fired and kills white people?
Don't forget bragging about it on Youtube and sending out rambling manifesto's......
So it's bullish right? Crap GDP, printing money, 0% rate.
Four Philadelphia employers plan to cut a total of more than 800 jobs this fall, according to reports filed with the state Department of Labor
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/inq-phillydeals/Hundreds-of-Philly-la...
Frigg'n awesome!
JustObserving: I'm too slow! I was going to post "In before the Chapwood index".
We need the "Winter is Coming" graphic of Janet Yellen for this story.
On deck: Auto sales channel stuffing/Huge inventories/revised sales numbers/C-R-A-C-K-K-K
These things happen when all of your "growth" the previous quarter was nothing but inventory build for products nobody is buying.
Please don't introduce intelligence into the conversation.
Thanks bro...
"Please don't introduce intelligence into the conversation."
I have never been accused of doing that, to the best of my recollection.
At this point, what does it matter?
That's "supply-side" economics for ya.
Speaking of which, "trickle down" economics is so effective that I can actually smell it in many NYC subway stations.
LOL!
"Depends"...
blast from the past
2008 gdp= 14.2 Trillion 2015= GDP= 17.9 Trillion
17.9-14.2= 3.7 trillion growth or 3.7T/14.2T= 26% larger economy since 2008
Now ask yourself this. Does the United States economy look 26% larger to you since 2008 or 7 years? Or just 26% more expensive?
Yep me too.
People appear to be 26% larger...
Lies, lies, lies. Probably in negative territory.
Same pattern every day. ZH publishes a particularly bearish article and DOW drops 100pts. Shorters jump in and then market reverses and massacres the shorters.
Everything is just great!
http://gothamist.com/2015/05/07/de_blasio_homelessness.php
Here's the story headline:
"De Blasio Allocates $100 Million To Fight Record Homelessness"The irony is, in doing so he bankrupts more people with untenable taxes and creates even more bankruptcies, job losses and homelessness.
Let's translate that: Official US gov CPI for 2014 was 2.0. Inflation as reported by chapwoodindex.com, 7.8% in Phoenix, and as high as 13.7% for areas like San Jose. It must challenge the gov very much to figure out how to report a positive GDP number.
ahem, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-13/q2-gdp-forecast-cut-07-atlanta-...
so last quarter, with 45 days left, this same data source were calling for a 0.7% quarter...we printed 3.7% post-revisions. i can only guess ZH assumes no one reads their nonsense.