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The Investor Revolt Arrives: This Hasn't Happened Since Q4 2008
There’s little question that the collapse of the financial universe in 2008 dealt a dramatic blow to retail’s confidence in US capital markets. Taxpayers were forced to foot the bill for a Wall Street bailout just as 45% of their 401ks was being vaporized and to make matters immeasurably worse, CNBC ensured that mom and pop could watch their retirements disappear in real time on the same channel that had, for the better part of a year, been telling them that everything was fine.
To the extent that the Fed-driven, six-year rally restored some semblance of trust between retail investors and Wall Street, it was wiped away for good on Monday when, in a harrowing day of flash-crashing mayhem, the perils of broken, manipulated markets were laid bare for all to see and to add insult to injury, the ETF pricing model blew up causing some funds to trade far below NAV.
Given that, and given how predisposed household investors are to mistrust Wall Street in the post-crisis, post-Flash Boys world, retail outflows during uncertain times (like those that began last month when China’s stock market collapse began to make national news) shouldn’t come as a surprise, but as Credit Suisse notes, something happened in July and August that hasn’t happened since Q4 of 2008: retail investors pulled money from both stocks and bond funds.
In other words, mom and pop were selling everything.
From Credit Suisse:
We observe that the latest weekly estimates from the ICI indicate these retail investment outflows began gaining strength in Q3 2015. Data to date suggest that we will see the first example of back-to-back monthly outflows from both equity and bond mutual funds (in July and August 2015) since Q4 2008.
More from Bloomberg:
Credit Suisse estimates $6.5 billion left equity funds in July as $8.4 billion was pulled from bond funds, citing weekly data from the Investment Company Institute as of Aug. 19. Those outflows were followed up in the first three weeks of August, when investors withdrew $1.6 billion from stocks and $8.1 billion from bonds, said economist Dana Saporta.
“Anytime you see something that hasn’t happened since the last quarter of 2008, it’s worth noting,” Saporta said in a phone interview. “It may be that this is an interesting oddity but if we continue to see this it could reflect a more broad-based nervousness on the part of household investors.”
Withdrawals from equity funds are usually accompanied by an influx of money to bonds, and an exit from both at the same time suggests investors aren’t willing to take on risk in any form. While retail investor sentiment isn’t the best predictor of market moves, their reluctance could have significance, Saporta said.
“It might suggest households are getting nervous about holding investments, and that could lead to some real economic implications including cutting back on spending,” she said. “Should the market turn lower again, it will be interesting to see if we have the traditional move back into bonds or if households move to cash.”
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Been debating rolling my "company contributed gambling investments" to all cash in the meantime while waiting for Old Yellen to release the QEackren
Fool me once .........shame on you
Fool me twice .........shame on me
Our grandkids should stage a class action lawsuit.
Too bad for our grandkids that the pensions of every judge in the land depends on their never winning such a lawsuit.
The big (smart) money followed me back in in March 2009, or at least it seemed that way.
regular households don't even have investments anymore and haven't since 2008. This is the big money folks getting out and cashing in now while they still can and before the U.S. gov-scum takes a page from the Chi-com's book and starts arresting people for selling stocks and shooting them in the head for shorting the "market".
The very quiet mass exodus that's been going on for quite a while is now starting to get loud and get noticed.
The only thing us little guys can feel good about is that we're not in the fucking "markets" anymore anyways and haven't been other than what little we might have trapped in some 401k plan that we'll never see in our lifetimes anyways.
I haven't contributed to mine since 2008 anyway. Let it just sit there and disappear over the next 20 years...I don't give a fuck about it and consider it long gone at this point. Same with any future Soc. Sec. benefits. LOL That's a good one, ay?!
However, in saying that, I suppose the gov-scum could always one-up the Chi-coms by threatening to throw the little guys in jail if we don't buy Apple stawk with guns pointe at our heads with what little we have left after trying to live each week.
Or in the not-so-distant future those who are still dumb enough to keep more than a couple hundred bucks in the bankster system will eventually figure out what the term "bail-in" really means.
"something happened in July and August that hasn’t happened since Q4 of 2008: retail investors pulled money from both stocks and bond funds.
In other words, mom and pop were selling everything."
When have retail investors not been a contrary indicator? How would you have fared if you did the opposite in Q4 of 2008?
Well, if retail investors don't want this stuff any more that leaves only one option- have the Fed buy it all. Closer and closer to Japan we become. One day at a time, one step at a time we keep working in that direction.
i can't tell anymore. Are turning Japanese, or is Japan turning American? We copied them with zirp. They've copied us with QE's. The FED is buying Treasuries. The Chicoms are selling treasuries. The FED is threatening a rate hike. All other central banks are cutting rates and QEasing.
Fuck, it's only a matter of time before our DotGov installs price controls and we become venezuela.
"Fuck, it's only a matter of time before our DotGov installs price controls and we become venezuela."
For the forseable future the US does not become Venezuela for the simple fact that the US$ is still the reserve currency, which is supported by the rest of the planet. Venezuela, Brazil, Turkey etc. - not so much.
Exactly correct. That is why America will be have the largest effect on the global economy. It is also why the pain fet will be strongest here than in every other country. Get ready y'all, seems like the colla[pse is right around the corner now.
Where is MDB when you need him!?
That's what I was thinking.
Is this guy a new version of him? Haha...
Au contraire! The New Development Bank (BRICS Bank) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) are a ready an willing basket of replacements for the US$
Moreover, with Obama's " Energy Independence Plan " the Americans buy less and less foreign oil. This means fewer US$'s going out to be a foreign country's US$ FX reserves. The Reserve Currency status is directly threatened by the two aforementioned banks AND the US government themselves.
The government will find ways to have most people participating through the FED and all kinds of retirement plans, pension funds etc.
"Market Watch" has a nifty comment space I hear.
I like to be a contrarian when investing, it works better than running with the herd. I'm trying to alert others not to fall into the trap of being too scared after a sharp drop. We'll see what happens soon...
Contrarian? Maybe buy some physical gold and silver then?
I have plenty of phys - that's not for trading.
It's odd to me....when you go to Vegas, even a dummy will say "you know the house generally wins, how else would they have built all these fancy buildings, etc..."
But, when you go to Manhattan, you don't conclude the same thing! If Wall Street were efficient, it would be a single data center run by about 300 really smart IT people. Everyone over about 300 people on Manhattan are just another group of people skimming money off the masses.
ParkAveFlasher,
Too bad for our grandkids; their faces are buried in screens, on desk, in hand, on wall, EVERYWHERE.
Grandkids are more programmed than all your wishes combined.
Grandkids will sue only if visual stimuli is restricted; or they have to work.
"Make me work and I'll sue!" ~ Millennial Generation.
We should convene an Article 5 national convention.
-1......proving Jeb Bush reads ZH.
Some people just like to kneel; can't save em. The idea of taking the power back from the Clowngress and ending the Fed with an amendment is lost on them.
a con-con would be both kneeling and swallowing. Be careful what you wish for, you might get it and have it made painfully obvious what a naive tool you were.
Yellen's personal bitch. ^^
There is danger in a Convention of States, precisely because so many of the national politicians are corrupt to the point where the guillotine would need a special sealer. . .
At the statehouse level, there is more hope, but what should happen to best safeguard the former Republic is for the USA to split into multile nation states.
Smaller is better.
A Con-Con would likely be hijacked by Cultural Marxists and we'd get a nightmare piece of shit out of it.
A better idea is to simply go back to the Articles of Confederation.
Or, split up into at least two, and possibly as many as six or seven, new countries.
Gn
yeah
those smaller areas cpuld be called 'states'.
There is no reason to split the country. If you want to return to the Constitutional Republic, repeal the 14th,16th, and 17th amendments. The Leviathan will shrink back to its 19th century size.
Yea, we need a Con-Con, because we are just overflowing with Ben Franklins and Thomas Jeffersons.
You realise the people writing this "New Constitution" would be banks, banks, lobbyists, and banks rights?
You mean the grandkids in public schools who are being taught from day 1 to be obedient little goosesteppers?
Mom an pop putting money in Folgers can, under mattress at least. If they're smarter, they get phizz silver. Lotta silver shortages showing.
I think this is how the saying goes;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A
Is it "Fool me three times... " yet?
I was there for the dot com collapse.
I was there for the Housing collapse. Now, of course, I bought my house before the price ramp. but all the family and friends were getting in at the top, and we warned them. Regardless. My 401k got whacked to the tune of 60%. But, hey, we're back and are even higher thanks to FED and government money printing.
So, now I feel set to get a 3rd kick in the nuts, with the imminent ZIRP bubble explosion. What is this 3rd bubble to be called? The Printing Press Bubble? The Debt bubble? The Ink Bubble? the FED Bubble? The Bernanke Bubble? The Greenspan Collapse? The Greater Depression 2.0?
Still, I just can't bring myself to liquidate my 401k and take that guaranteed 30% or more hit. I'd do it if there wasn't a 10% penalty. I'd gladly liquidate and pay the taxes.
At 14,000 we moved to a fixed 3% with Lincoln - all of it. There is a yearly account fee of something like $50. Yeah, we're treading water, but we're not losing. We're mid-60's so we can't afford to hit another bottom, especially one that could, potentially, take many years to recover from.
The new victory: "treading water"
Too bad we are little people
At the end of every month, if I'm still standing, and the lights are on, it's considered a victory.
Of course, wifey feels and tells me I'm a loser. Literally . Seriously .
Why are we not doing as well as all my friends on Facebook???
True story. We got invited to a birthday party. Wife wanted a photo to post on facefuck. The first FOUR were deleted before she got the one acceptable. I just gave up, and went Hollywood. I quite literally then heard from friends how envious they were of our great time. They could just tell what a rip roaring time I was having by that photo. The close friends got to hear that most of that production ended up on the cutting room floor.
But. But, they don't consider everyone else is doing the same thing!!!
A lot of folks are hurting, but fabricate a differant realty on social media. Your a loser if you can't keep up.
And it's harder and harder, unless your a government employee. No competition from illeagals or h1b. No profit motive. Customer service? Yeah, right. No layoff. Premium pay for the " job" . Premium benefits. Premium, almost unheard of pensions. Good to be in the "party" .
FB. What a cruel joke. Observed that a few years ago. Kinda like cutting yourself.
"But, hey, we're back and are even higher thanks to FED and government money printing."
you might want to try adjusting for that inflation that allegedly doesn't exist and then decide how "back" you really are.
Oh, you're higher alright; must live in Colorado or Washington.
You can hold metals in an IRA; just sayin.
Metals is an option in one of the accounts.
However, It's not physical holding. It's a paper account, of which, 100 other people have a claim to the same ounce as me. Further, remember that the PM market is highly manipulated. Oh, and there are fees on it, but no dividend.
I'd be better off cashing out and buying physical holdings rather than investing in a 401k gold account.
Yes, the PM market is manipulated, but the bastids can't manipulate what's in my safe...
Just goes to show you that Zerohedge is read by a LOT of people now.....
In the dot com bubble, I couldn't understand valuations so I got out of the stock market - that was back in 1999 or so. Since then, I have been tempted a few times, but I always ask myself "if I could buy the entire company for the current stock price, would the return be sufficient?" The answer is almost always no.
After learning about all the tricks the brokers have to front run you, HFT, route your trades to make the most off you, look at your stops to see where to push the stock, analyze your trading patterns, insider trading and realizing that they have access to better and faster information, I just said "screw it - I will just invest in myself, my familar and my own business."
About the only way I would have an interest now is if I wanted to make long term investments in a company that was fairly or under valued. However, the FED and its counterparts have completely screwed up the meaning of valuations by keeping interest rates near zero. Keeping the price of money artificially low pumps up valuations and gives those who have access to the low cost money incentive to buy out other companies.
The big money has a huge advantange over the little guy, and, guess what, I ain't playing.
The big money can also buy preferred stock and bank quarterly dividends. If I were going to get back in - and I might at some point - it would be with dividend-paying, long-term blue chips only.
Max, excellent analysis, thank you. I just feel that there are not that many good alternatives.
Dutti, you are correct. If the FED goes NIRP, the stocks and bonds (and precious metals) may do very well, but it is so much of an insiders game, that odds are stacked against you. You want to find a productive use with your funds. That could be helping your kids learn a trade where they can earn a living, running your own farm/garden or growing your own business. If you have your own business, and you can invest in it in a way that may produce future returns, then it can be a great way of doing something productive with your funds and reducing current income. The big 'but' is that you have to find something that will hopefully payoff later.
Radio ad in our area;
" Come to my seminar and I'll teach you how to flip houses with no money down and zero risk!!!"
He must get a response, because it keeps playing.
Northeast? Pennsylvania or NY? Just drove 830 miles so I can attend mom's 80th birthday tonight...
Open bar for two hours! But why my family doen't get the hell out of NY State is beyond me.
The negative came from a Wall St. manager.
Would that be Money Market cash fund? we own those to IE: Good luck pulling that money out. you'll be gated .
Sincerely
Ben Ber-spank-me
http://www.sec.gov/News/PressRelease/Detail/PressRelease/1370542347679
Unfortunately your options are stock funds, bond funds, or... money market funds.
MMF is the worst choice of all. It's literally your 401k's piggy bank for emergencies, I think it's exempted from any sort of insurance. So if your fund suffers, it's the first tranche of free money they will loot. Read your terms and conditions, people.
From my guys:
"Strategy
The Adviser normally invests at least 99.5% of the fund's total assets in cash, U.S. Government securities and/or repurchase agreements that are collateralized fully (i.e., collateralized by cash or government securities). Certain issuers of U.S. Government securities are sponsored or chartered by Congress, but their securities are neither issued nor guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury. Potentially entering into reverse repurchase agreements. Investing in compliance with industry standard regulatory requirements for money market funds for the quality, maturity, and diversification of investments.
RiskInterest rate increases can cause the price of money market securities to decrease. An investment in a money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund."
And the rest:
Chairman's Message June 30, 2015https://www.fidelity.com/research/funds/fundlibrary/14.12/images/always-...); background-position: 95% 49%; background-repeat: no-repeat;" href="https://www.fidelity.com/bin-public/060_www_fidelity_com/documents/SHDOC..." target="_blank">View as PDF
Dear Shareholder:
In response to regulations that will go into effect next year, Fidelity announced several changes to our money market fund offerings to meet shareholders' investment needs and help ensure that our funds comply with the new rules. We announced our plans early in 2015, well in advance of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC's) October 2016 implementation deadline to give investors plenty of time to understand these developments.
The new rules will require institutional prime (general purpose) and institutional municipal money market mutual funds - those primarily held by institutional investors rather than individuals - to price and transact at a "floating" net asset value (NAV), or price per share, instead of at the stable $1 NAV that typically applies to such shareholder transactions today. Prime and municipal money market funds that are defined as retail funds will continue to be eligible to transact at a stable $1 NAV.
In addition, during periods of extraordinary market stress, institutional and retail prime and municipal funds will have the ability, if they choose to use it, to temporarily charge liquidity fees, payable to the funds upon redemption, or to temporarily halt redemptions by applying redemption "gates."
Government and U.S. Treasury money market mutual funds will continue to be eligible to transact at the stable $1 NAV and will not be subject to the potential of liquidity fees or redemption gates, although they will face tighter investment requirements.
Fidelity has spent significant time talking to investors about these new rules. Many have told us they prefer funds that seek a stable $1 NAV and they would like to avoid the possibility of liquidity fees or redemption gates. Based on these preferences, we will continue to offer a full range of money market funds, while making changes to comply with the rules. We are amending the investment policies on our government and U.S. Treasury money market funds, which already meet the new tighter regulations. Also, we began the process in May of merging certain money market funds that have similar investment strategies. To prepare for upcoming changes, we plan to close certain funds to most new investors beginning in late August. Additional changes are planned for later in the year, including the conversion of several of our prime money market funds to government money market funds.
We will continue to provide fund shareholders with updates on all of these changes and will continue to manage all of Fidelity's money market funds as we always have - with the goal of providing security and safety for shareholders' investments. You can learn more by visiting www.fidelity.com/mmktregs.
Sincerely,Abigail P. Johnson
So a possible solution to those dollars trapped in a 401k - like Fidelity - would be to borrow against it - as much as you can. You will be required to 'repay it back' at a ridiculous (in these days) interest rate - like 6% or something - but here's the upsides:
You are 'repaying' yourself - so basically you are just adding 6% per year of whatever your principal payment is back to your 401k. Let's say you borrowed $50,000, for four years, at 6%. You pay it back at $1175 per month - the interest starting out about $250 a month. The first year you've paid your 401k fund an additional $2700 give or take in interest. Fidelity usually charges something like $50 a year to 'manage' this.
Meanwhile - you've 'sheltered' the principal you borrowed (minus the principal and interest you've since paid pack in) from a bad market. So at the end of the first year - you've still got about $38,000 left that you've NOT had invested in any mutual fund or shitty MMF. You could even had invested that money in, say, gold, silver or guns and resold some of it to take a profit (if it worked out that any of those investments panned out - there is ALWAYS something that will increase in value it seems - your job is to manage this yourself).
As long as you are employed by the firm that holds your 401k you are not left with many options. If you walk - then you can take that money and put it into a self managed IRA - at some point it might be worthwhile to consider doing that dependent upon what your yearly take home is, how old you are, deciding if you want to chance this dicey job market or just take early retirement, etc. If you have, say, over $500,000 in the 401k and you are over 59 and in relatively good health, and have payed off all of your outstanding debt - including your house - then retiring early and finding a job with very basic insurance might be a good choice.
You can continue to take loans out - but you are limited to borrowing against what YOU put in, and not any workplace matched funds, and you are limited to a certain number of loans over a period of time.
If you company has a decent match (like over 5%) you can see what the effect will be. Say you are making $7000 a month, netting $5500. You have a 10% match - so you have been putting in $700 a month to your 401k, company matching that. You take your loan - so now you have a loan payment of $1175 every month - lowering your net income to $4325. So you can draw from that $50,000 you've deposited into a local bank or safety deposit box (or buried out back ha ha) to pay the 'principal' and you JUST pull from your monthly income the interest to pay back - the $250 or less every month - so you are really out of pocket only that amount every month. You keep up the 401k match because you get a 100% return on your money from your companies match - and that's hard to beat anywhere - we'd have to be in total meltdown to lose that much (which we will be eventually but probably not REAL soon). Plus if we are talking total meltdown YOU have control of whatever you have left of your principal loan, in cash, not at Fidelity or in the Fed's 'reserve cash fund'.
If you do this like I did in 2006, and purchased a mix of gold and Smith and Wesson stock,not only have you repaid your loan by now but you've seen a more than 100% return on your money (if you weren't greedy and sold your SWHC stock or at least enough of it at the best times). And starting in 2008 I began to reinvest in the mutuals and gotten a good return again. This time, however, I will have to do it and probably plan on not paying it all back - by either leaving my job (and joining the ranks of disgruntled tax payers) of seeing the total SHTF before the loan repayment plan ends in four years (or whatever the maximum loan amount time Fidelity offers is - might be five or six even). Unfortunately TIAA-CREF doesn't offer such a good opportunity.
All cash isn't an option for many of those 'gambling investment' systems. Money markets and ultra short treasuries are as close as you can go, and yeah do it. Some of them have nicer pools to put the money in. I'm thinking we are at the point where that precious metals fund is looking really nice. Silver got taken below support a couple days ago but it doesn't seemed to have turned. If it breaks above $14.60 today I think were in for a show. There's nothing like a failed breakdown for kindling a fire.
As silver paper went down, total physical price was going up. And what just happened? Kitco is sold out of ASE rounds.
All the miners are doing at this point is taking on larger debt to keep the lights on. Paper could go down to $0, miners will take out MOAR debt.
Don't worry, for every seller there is a buyer. When the "dumb money" retail investor panics during moments of volatility in a bull market, astute investors should look at it as a buying opportunity. Fundamentals are strong and the Fed has your back, so investment opportunity as never been better.
MDB, did you change your handle? Sounds like you...
Don't worry, for every seller there is a buyer
Actually....no there isn't.
Explain your comment please, Vince. For an equity or debt instrument to change hands (other than via bankruptcy), one person sells and one person buys. When money flows out of funds, assets are not vaporized, they're sold. That does imply a buyer, does it not?
No....I'm not going to explain it....have a nice day.
I'm selling small bags of dog shit real cheap. Anyone want to buy? Didn't think so.
There is a "person", waiting to sell.
WHEN there is a buyer, then he is a seller, if no buyer comes along ........
Dont worry is here 1 week 2 days. you can be assured he is a troll, that and his comment. I wonder how much they get paid? By the comment? The word? Of the down votes?
I'm sure he left off the /sarc tag...
/sarc
True. The banks, institutions and vulture investors buy back at the bottom but they have have access to info that we don't have..... It is definitely NOT a level playing field out there.
Actually, that's how markets crash. You are only stating that for success to occur, you need victims first. Crash = Up for sale with no bids. No bids, no liquidity. No liquidity = you don't have your money. As for as bargains, maybe. But the whole future is risky, not just financial markets.
Okay, but how much did your Sisters Brother uncle make last month?
Now jump you fuckers!
+1. Financial resonance. One day it collapses.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nFzu6CNtqec
I got nothing left to pull...except the slave chain...
Yank the fuckers off their feet.
and your cock
Sheeple waking up? Maybe there is hope..........
no just more ZH readers.
problem is they prolly sold and put the funds in a TBTF bank.........either way the bank/gov will steal it.......
Just keep selling folks, yellen buys all.
"The investors are revolting!"
"Yes, they stink on ice."
"PULL!"
A skyscraper just fell on it's own accord somewhere.
I'm envisioning a banker with a golden chute that failed to open because it makes me smile.
" Bond funds are not attracting the cash " that has been going on for seven years lol, many have bailed the only one buying and selling is the Fed and treasury lol...Many large scams with many mini scams in between IE Dark pools
Bond funds that yield less than bugger all even before "management" charges.
When your jumbo house loan is vairable.. you pay off the house with any winnings from the stock market (and then the rest) and give you wife that 'dream' vacation in Hawaii before you can't. What they don't tell you about physical gold is that it can get by the inheritance tax, that is if you physicallty have it and that is a 45% gain over death taxes and then you family can have the family business in trust and some loot to celerbrate with if the liquidayer slowly and wisely (, or buy goods and services from the black market).
Yes, as the government clamps down, the black market grows and will find ways to prosper. I seems politicians have to have it.
Let the casinos gamble with house money.
"mom and pop could watch their retirements disappear in real time on the same channel that had, for the better part of a year, been telling them that everything was fine. "
aka cramer: bear sterns is a BUY..lehman is sound..need anymore evidence?
msm does it's job..herr obuma & elite make sure the propaganda is 24/7
cnbc is a rat trap
So where is Hank Paulson now? Mozillo? Geitner? Rubin?
All living very well, I'm sure filling themselves with 7-course dinners and fine wine while the sheeples who got zero bailout and painfully screwed are alot poorer.
Those a-holes can have all the wine and caviar they like. I'm sure a few lumpentariat wait staff will add a dash of special sauce to their ingestibles.
Myself, not being a hunter, just yesterday agreed to allow a young guy who lives down the road bow hunting rights on my land in exchange for some tasty venison from each kill.
The dude was happier than a clam with the arrangement - details still to be worked out - but I now have a new friend who will keep an eye on my property, keep strangers away, and pay me in meat for the privilege of having his own private hunting grounds.
He and I are also gardeners, so we will have plenty of fresh vegetables and fruit is also abundant where I live.
So, have all the fiat and fatty foods you like, you rich banker fucks. Me and my friend will dine on pure foods direct from Mother Nature.
It is storage that becomes the big problem. Putting away in Autumn for Jan and Feb.
Pickling, Salting and General "preserves" know-how should always be considered.
Personally I turn excess anything (mostly) in to wine, so at least I have barter goods.
People have to pay the mortgage, for college, to eat.
Lots of people running out of money. Plain and simple. It's what I did when I was unemployed for 16 months.
Here's the big picture. An interesting read. http://www.internationalman.com/articles/how-empires-end
I'm thinking we're at stage 8 and moving along at a decent clip. What do you all think?
Late 9
early 9. We've already gotten authoritarian and lock down on capital is fairly advance; theft of our income is well advanced, but!, there is quite a ways to go before we reach "Dramatic authoritarian control". It's coming however.
Based on the fact that .gov has to print half it's expenditure anually we are well past 3, 4 and five. I have no doubt .gov employees are hoarding all they can.
It's probably mainly a mix between baby boomers drawing down their retirement funds as anticipated to fund their retirements, retail getting out due to market fears, plus people falling out of the American Dream and needing to tap those funds to survive. Hard to say what relative percentages should be assigned to those causes.
I ponder this frequently, usually after talking about current events with friends who still have good jobs in enclaves that so far have escaped unscathed, like jobs with the government.
Households look OK until the ground underneath them gets eroded away and they fall into the chasm, one by one. Nearby, other households start to fear similar fates, based upon what they have personally witnessed, but a block away, life goes on oblivious in perfectly normal fashion, and it is impossible to convince these people that there is anything amiss, or that their own households are at risk. The media tells them that there is a "recovery" ongoing and they happily assume no economic harm will ever reach their doorstep.
All it takes is a layoff. Then the unemployment benefits run out while you diligently but fruitlessly try to find a job similar to what you used to have. A year after that, the IRA and 401k are gone. Six months later, the bankruptcy Discharge helps a little, but the part-time unbenefitted job you end up having forced upon you in your desperation leaves zero discretionary income to spend on anything.
I got lucky, or blessed. Every day I see examples of people who are struggling. People with degrees and advanced degrees just sitting and waiting for something to come along. I have had resumes cross my desk of chemical engineers and microbiologists with PhDs that cannot find work out of school. The pile up after the slow crash is evident from that standpoint.
I went through ~80% of my retirement funds. Funny, but even being unemployed I paid a shitload of taxes due to the IRA penalties. Thoroughly screwed.
With the kids and all I will never retire. I am the engine right now and must keep the cash flowing. My oldest is heading into the work force (an engineer) so there is at least one off the books, although I am still hooked there through his student loans. His are manageable.
Just treading water for a year and a half watching this shitshow disintegrate.
Except deadbeats like me. Quite paying mortgage for 49 months now. They sued for foreclosure and I beat them as I exposed their forged note, etc. That bank quit the case and handed off the loan and assigned the mortgage to another criminal outfit, Nationstar Mortgage, LLC whose stock is off 50% this year due to their great business. Ha-ha!
So...rock could not show standing and transferred note/mortgage to carrot. Good luck carrot!
Bank attorneys are underpaid, over worked and drowning in student debt. Also they are poor dressers. No P. Batemans that is for sure. Oh, they are just doing these foreclosure cases on autopilot hoping folks just get up and leave. Me? Fuck you banksters! Yes, juvenile...me.
So, the lesson is, fuck the banks any chance you get.
Never thought I would say this but good for you. The world has turned upside down.
While there might be some moral risk involved in cheering people who have beaten this corrupt system, stopped making payments, and successfully forestalled foreclosure indefinitely, there is also moral risk involved in letting banks collect mortgage payments from homeowners when the bank in question really does not own the mortgage note.
The specter was once raised of millions of homeowners making 30 years of mortage payments and then receiving a Discharge of Mortgage signed by "Linda Green" and suitable for no use other than wiping their ass. If the law had been followed, chains of title everywhere would have been clouded, and all title insurance companies would have gone bankrupt.
This used to be the subject of a lot of posts on ZH, but the issue sort of evaporated. I do remember reading a Court decision out of Florida that basically said in a more roundabout and obscure way that making people pay their mortgages or lose their homes was good public policy, and if the law stood in the way, the Courts had a duty to nullify those laws in foreclosure matters, even if they remained good law for everything else, the end result being that it became legal to swear out false Affidavits, but only if they were submitted in support of a foreclosure.
They have so rigged every part of our financial world with taxes, mandates, fees, penalties, and loans with outrageous interest and legal shenanigans, we have no choice but to steal. Nearly everything we do to escape their claws is considered theft by the laws they make up.
Consider the kids. Ten years ago they cook up a plan to make loans to every child coming of age in America. Because they are all lawyers for asshole universities they all love it. They jack up the price of admission beyond all reasonable levels, the make debt slaves of every kid trying to make it up the rung.
And then the Pièce_de_résistance, they make it illegal for the debt slaves to discharge the debt in bankruptcy when every other American can get a clean slate and the fucking whore bankers get free rides with free money from the same group that backed the enslavement of the kids.
Fuck .gov and the bankers. Today it's righteous to steal back your life anyway you can. Tomorrow it will become righteous to cleanse the earth of this scourge; with extreme prejudice.
So trumpist of you. lol
Household investors? I didn't know there were any left.
He's just saying both retail investors withdrew money this month.
"retail investors pulled money from both stocks and bond funds"
How else are thay going to pay rents, ObolaDontCare and credit card bills?
A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.
The whole thing is a giant fraudulent gimmick.
"Now clap"
I thought it was "A hand in the bush is worth two hands on your bird?"
A hand in the bush is worth two anywhere else.
... and panties are next to the best thing in the world!
I guess we're now to the point that the small, non-institutional stocks and commodities investor has become irrelevant. I keep hearing nobody wants to buy silver, and then I go the metals dealers' websites and I find many options not available or on back order, or not available at all. At it it's available, there's nearly always a large premium over spot. When you've got the entire economy being driven by very few people, this will not end well.
-Argenta
Since Lehman™
It's called Karma.
And it's pronounced: "HA HA HA, FUCK YOU!"
Oportunity in gold now, go long now, short term, until end of day maybe
Such conviction in a value thesis. Thanks for the HOT tip!
“Should the market turn lower again, it will be interesting to see if we have the traditional move back into bonds or if households move to cash.”
Fear shows up clearly when you look at Physical Gold.
Wold Gold Council Historical Global Annual Demand in GOLD TONS:
Date, Coins/Bars, Central Banks, Total Everything
2005: 418, -663, 3,127,
2006: 430, -365, 3,096,
2007: 438, -484, 3,115,
2008: 918 -235, 3,777,
2009: 832, -34, 3,674,
2010: 1,202 80, 4,213,
2011: 1,493, 481, 4,728,
2012: 1,300, 569, 4,690,
2013: 1,702, 626, 4,436,
2014: 1,004, 588, 4,212,
- 2015 American Buffalo Bullion sales by oz
January, 34,500
February, 12,000
March, 9,500
April, 10,000
May, 9,500
June, 21,000
July, 32,000
August, 16,500
http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/index.cfm?action=PreciousMetals&typ...
- 2015 American Gold Eagle Sales by OZ:
January, 81,000
February, 18,500
March, 46,500
April, 29,500
May, 21,500
June, 76,000
July, 170,000
August, 77,500
Total Gold Eagles 2015 = 520,500 oz (partial)
Total Gold Eagles 2014 = 524,500 oz
Total Gold Eagles 2013 = 856,500 oz
Total Gold Eagles 2012 = 753,000 oz
Total Gold Eagles 2011 = 1,000,000 oz (looks like sellout)
Total Gold Eagles 2010 = 1,220,500 oz
Total Gold Eagles 2009 = 1,435,000 oz
Total Gold Eagles 2008 = 860,500 oz
-
2015 American Silver Eagle Sales by OZ:
January, 5,520,000
February, 3,022,000
March, 3,519,000
April, 2,851,500
May, 2,023,500
June, 4,840,000
July, 5,529,000
August, 4,180,000
Total Silver Eagles 2015 = 31,495,000 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2014 = 44,006,000 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2013 = 42,675,000 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2012 = 33,742,500 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2011 = 39,868,500 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2010 = 34,662,500 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2009 = 38,766,500 oz
Total Silver Eagles 2008 = 19,583,500 oz
-
They will exactly as many Eagles as they make every year. No more. No less.
OH YELLOW ORB,
do you mock us in our hubris?
Do you stand in judgment on our fragile egos?
Are we not but crabs?
(do we have the crabs?)
(is the market about to get the crabs?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjxw3rEMioE
Thus states the ZH "village idiot". Of corse we all respect the liberty to do and to be so.
Thanks douche.
"market crashes are problems for rich people not us" quoting the Mrs.
LMAO. Good post.
She's right. Layoffs and tax hikes are problems for you.
quit being so republican.
laissez bon temps roullez.
Mad - you must be rich or on welfare - those are the only people not really hurt by a crash
Shit flows down hill.
Where do you think the money comes from that keeps companies (and jobs) running.
it's not money that keeps companies (and jobs) running. It's customers or clients. Why do you think there is so much liquidity piled up on bank balances? No one to loan to because we have entered a great wind down and the great "consumer" has become a different person. consumption is in decline. The GDP numbers are totally false we are in contraction, not expansion; worldwide.
has everyone lost a sense of humor in this depression? lighten up.
the market was up 1000 points in two days, I guess they are buying the market again?
Run by a select few for the benefit of a select few.
#justsaynotoQE4
Cash out the IRA brokerage account, pay the income tax + penalty, pay the alternative minimum tax, and use the remainder to buy a rental property?
Decisions decisions
You've described what I'm doing to a "T"
Yeah, missed the great rally. Pulled out two years ago.
She said it hurt. But at least the boat accident was deductible?
Seems like a very low volume open.
TURN THE MACHINES BACK ON!
if 99.99% of the wealth is in the hands of the .01%, what contribution does mom and pop's decision even have in the markets.
Although seems like the .01% may have a little bit of a "liquidity" problem.
Perhaps the rise from 09 gave them a chance to sell off some of the wealth.
I had chums in the Wall Street crash, who made a hash of their sums and burned their mothers for cash. They turned into bums in a flash. I've known monkeys who were doing OK who met flunkies that would blow you away; they were junkies in less than a day. There are pushers and hoodlums of great dedication that without hesitation supply medication.
One minute you're a looker that looked, and the next you're a hooker that's hooked
What would you do if you knew you didn't have the ability to trade 1 million shares of anything in less than a nanosecond?
they want to take your cash... either you give it up through gambling or through confiscation .. it is up to you.
"What will this third bubble be called?"
You can bet your socks that CNBS and the other Fed-lackies will call it "The China Bubble," when in reality it's "The Fed Ponzi Bubble". The Feral Reserve will NEVER accept the blame, and when the smoke clears they will continue with the same policies all over again.
According to what I've been able to calculate, some $4 trillion in "retirement" money is "invested" in equities via government-sanctioned accounts -- mostly in long-only mutual funds. When half or two-thirds of that, or worse, evaporates...
Well... Who knows what's going to happen this go-round? That the Fed specifically, and TPTB in general, will have lost all credibility will be the least of it.
The election of a demagogue like Trump? Probably. A revolt followed by a jack-booted crackdown by same? Possibly. War? Everything is on the table.
its to be expected. everyone's been told of how bonds are so unsafe and risky due to 'rising interests rates from a growing economy' that they dont see bonds as an alternative.
so retail is told bonds are not safe and then SHOWN how stocks are not safe either. cue the banks crying the trading revenues are down.
Take it out. Take it all out. Let the algo's fight each other. Put it in treasuries till the smoke clears. Get out while you still can.
Whaat?! People are pulling money out of the market completely?? They can't escape that easyily. Time to unleash capital cash controls and a consumption tax. Stat!