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Biggest Short Squeeze Since 2008 Bank Bailout And Epic VIX Rigging Sends Stocks Green For The Week

Tyler Durden's picture




 

UNRIGGED!!

VIX ETFs were screwed with...

 

To ensure S&P closed Green!!!

 

*  *  *

After a week like that, we think everyone needs some downtime... relax... (NSFW)

 

Before we get to stocks, oil is the big news this week... as a short-squeeze morphed into leaked news which became the real news of a Saudi invasion of Yemen...

 

This is the biggest weekly gain for WTI since Feb 2011 (when politicial unrest surged in MidEast and Northern Africa with Libya at the heart)

 

As the Oil-USD correlation regime has flipped dramatically post-FOMC Minutes...

 

Sparking a huge squeeze higher in Energy stocks...

8 of the 10 biggest gainers in SPDR oil and gas exploration ETF are refiners which are more like inverse bets on oil (crude is an input thus betting on dropping oil prices flowing through to margins)... so the ultimate irony is XLE is surging on negative oil bets and dragging oil higher.

Because that has worked out so well before...

As Credit Suisse noted - nothing has changed with the fundamentals.

*  *  *

Volume today in stocks was abysmal...

 

Energy's ramp supported much of the gains in the broad indices...and with panic buiyi9ng at the close thanks to XIV manipulation

 

A look at The Dow futures gives a sense of the panic.. and the resistance that it can't break...

 

Futures for the week show the craziness of the moves... DUDLEY IS THE NEW BULLARD!!!

 

VIX was all kinds of messy this week - slammed lower into the close to guarantee a green close for stocks

 

But VXX shorts were dramatially squeezed every day... this was VXX's biggest weekly gain since May 2010.. and the biggest 2-week rise (up 68%) ever...

 

56 members of the S&P 500 gained more than 5% this week!!!

 

And "Most Shorted" had their best (or worst) 3-day surge since Nov 26th 2008 - i.e. the biggest short squeeze since post-Lehman creation of TALF, bailout of Citi, froced acquisiion of BofA and Merrill, and Fed buying GSE debt

 

The last time shorts were squeezed this much, this happeened...

The Bottom Line: Window Dressing (Most Momentum) and Squeezes (Most Shorted) provided all the ammo needed to create the illusion that all is well

*  *  *

Treasury yields had an ugly week as investors were awakened to just what China's devaluation dilemma means... Rising odds of a Sept hike (rom Fischer) sent the long-end lower and front-end higher today...

 

The USD Index was up around 1.3% on the week - the best week in the last 6 weeks led by AUD and EUR weakness...

 

Commodities were mixed on the week with USD strength sending PMs lower but growth hyper, squeezes, and war driving copper and crude higher...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Briefly this week, US equities reflected their short-term macro fundamentals...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: This is the data The Fed is dependent on...

 

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Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:07 | 6482939 xcehn
xcehn's picture

There goes momentum.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:08 | 6482942 44MagnumPrepper
44MagnumPrepper's picture

Was the fed... right?!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:49 | 6483059 swass
swass's picture

Thanks, Tyler.  That meditation really helped me.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:29 | 6483154 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Only thing I'm meditating on is digging tunnels and spider-holes. You know, for insurance purposes.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:45 | 6483187 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

You might know the answer here, I have a question.

There is a hole I've been looking at. I thought maybe it was a hog. I removed the cover from it to see if that would scare it off... sort of shaved it if you will.

Well... recently I got a big eyeful of that hole and it seem enlarged and dug out.

So I wonder who is in that hole. What has been going in that hole.

Today I see flies all over that hole.

So I ask if you know if flies mean the hog has moved out and a possum has moved in?

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 22:40 | 6483855 Kassandra
Kassandra's picture

Dead things in that hole....

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:09 | 6482943 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

See what happens Larry, when you let the algos run the markets. You see what happens!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:29 | 6483155 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

whenever I read these chart infested diatribes, I visualize a four year old rolling on the ground, tears streaming feet kicking and fists pounding, crying out as loud as they can "waaaaaaah, it's not faaaaaaiiiiiir, waaaaAAAAHHHHH"

and then I laugh

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:11 | 6483228 playdoh
playdoh's picture

ZH end of day charts are generally good, cept maybe the unhealthy obsession with VIX.

Always glad to see charts unclutted with damn oscillators.

You always know if your favorite charts aren't included then they didn't fit the "waaaaaaah, it's not faaaaaaiiiiiir, waaaaAAAAHHHHH" commentry.

Lovin the big red arrows on the Tylers' Dow futures chart. Guess where the shorts have their stops? LOL, that resistance CAN break.

 

 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:10 | 6482947 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

SHANGHAI CLOSE BABY.

 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:11 | 6482954 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Normal *markets* return!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:30 | 6483022 khnum
khnum's picture

markets a strong term maybe central bank and proxy share registry might suffice instead

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:12 | 6482956 saints51
saints51's picture

Wild week!!!

Everyone have a good weekend!!!!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:12 | 6482957 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Bestest Bonus Bonus chart eva !

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:12 | 6482959 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Ask traders “how do you survive?” and they reply “’one day at a time.”

“HFT Killed the Click-Trading Star”    from  "Video Killed the Radio Star"    by The Buggles

I heard you got a wireless mouse in '92
Staying awake, intent on trading SPY and crude
You could use tighter stops, retracements, there were few   (Oh-a-oh)

They took in credits and rebates, trading for free
These HFT machines with new technology
Under a grand lie they provide liquidity

(Oh-a-oh)  They spam a million      (Oh-a-oh)   But Dude, you’ve got a Dell, man
 
HFT killed the click-trading star,  HFT killed the click-trading star
Flash boys came and broke your heart       (Oh-a-a-a oh)

And now we meet and watch the Nanex videos
We see the playback and it seems so long ago
Do you remember how your orders used to flow?
(Oh-a-oh)  You were the first one    (Oh-a-oh)  Now you’re the last one

HFT killed the click-trading star, HFT killed the click-trading star
Pockets lined with retail scars
They should be fined, they’ve gone too far   (Oh-a-a-a oh)

HFT killed the click-trading star, HFT killed the click-trading star
Just Nav Sarao put behind bars, the SEC, they've gone AWOL
Virtu came and broke your charts, can’t win this game with high-low bars

You were a click-trading star, now you’re an easy mark …

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:30 | 6483156 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Well done.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:56 | 6483331 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Thanks.   Just like radio survived MTV, we trade on ...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:50 | 6483194 playdoh
playdoh's picture

LMAO, one of the best yet.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:49 | 6483316 Budnacho
Budnacho's picture

*Golfclap*

Kudos...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:51 | 6495383 JDintheUK
JDintheUK's picture

Most excellent

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:12 | 6482963 Traderone
Traderone's picture

I hate it when I exit at VWAP but they keep it going without me.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:17 | 6482983 saints51
saints51's picture

Crude hasn't seen Vwap but briefly in 2 days at each pit open lol!! Pretty confident we get a nice correction down next week and hoping to find a spot if it does to hop on the gravity train. We shall see where price and volume lead us.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:42 | 6483177 playdoh
playdoh's picture

Suspect I had a similar trade going on, except I don't use VWAP, Just a painful memory of 4 unsuccesful attempts to trade a breakout made me close out to avoid a repeat. 

Sometimes you know it'll keep going but you also know you did the right thing at the time. Good luck

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:27 | 6485096 Traderone
Traderone's picture

Probably a bit late with my reply but hopefully you'll see it. You should make VWAP a part of your strategy as it is a fantastic trade ,the best exit there is. ok the entry is a little tougher but you'll work it out. Good luck to you too.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:57 | 6485578 1fortheroad
1fortheroad's picture

Hi Traderone, I like your style. I added you to my contacts. We should get togather sometime. Lots of ways.

I am veiwing this as a once in a lifetime trading oppurtunity. A good interday trader can make $$$ and lots of it.

I deal with the futures just like you do.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:13 | 6482965 wendigo
wendigo's picture

So all is well again and I can sell my stack. Good to know. 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:14 | 6482967 khnum
khnum's picture

and like an unflushable turd all 3 indices miraculously turn green in the final seconds

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:45 | 6483185 playdoh
playdoh's picture

LOL, it did feel like that 'cept it happens so often it's expected

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:14 | 6482968 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

This is such a shitshow, I just can't take it anymore. All the doom and gloom talk on this website and still the fed finds a way to shove it up our ass. Once again, you all can talk and bitch and moan all you want. The headline could say US declares bankrupcy. It won't matter one fucking wit until the us dollar is challanged for reserve currency. The fed can print any damn thing it wants to infinity. Until that changes, reading all this doom and gloom is a worthless exercise in futility. Have fun lobotomizing yourself.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:19 | 6482981 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

"I just can't take it anymore"

 

bye...it's easier as a spectator

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:02 | 6483091 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

 

Never in history has any nation worked its way out of a debt crisis by going further into debt.  Lots have tried, all have failed.

Does anybody think that "this time is different"?    If not, then the only question is when the shit hits the fan.

 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:24 | 6483259 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

debt, piled on debt to get out of debt. it seems to be a worldwide mania

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:19 | 6482985 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Of course the FED finds a way ! They can print an INFINITE amount of money to prop up the markets and the world thousands times over. However, the economy is still dead... and the debt keeps growing.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:51 | 6483063 Dutti
Dutti's picture

Who cares if the debt is growing? If it's private debt, yes you should care. If it's government debt - wake up! it was never, ever ment to be paid back, it's just rolled over and extra money printed to pay interest.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:14 | 6483093 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

That's the idiotic view of those supporting MMT (also known as the Magic Money Tree theory). Unfortunately, even the government debt has to be serviced. That's forcing ever increasing deficits, which in the end translates into collapsing currencies. You might want to read a bit about the exponential fuction... the great societies killer.

FYI check the situation of Japan, in a world of zero interest rates:

http://www.slideshare.net/oecdeconomy/japan2015revitalisingjapan

Slide 9 will tell you that Japan will use almost 25% of its budget to service its governmental debt...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:22 | 6483139 Dutti
Dutti's picture

Hey, I'm talking about the way it is, not how it should ideally be.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 23:10 | 6483899 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Actually, you don't seem to have the faintest ideea what you're takling about... The exponential function that's building up our debt right until is going to kill us, is as real as it gets ! But don't you worry; even if you skipped math in school, you'll figure it out soon enough...

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 09:09 | 6486850 Dutti
Dutti's picture

As long as the US$ is the world's reserve currency, the rest of the world is helping to finance US deficits. Japan does not have that privilege. Japan has to use it's own citizens to shoulder the burden of their 80's excesses by debasing the yen.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:23 | 6483006 saints51
saints51's picture

Did not down vote you but remember what the daily ZH article at session close stated: They reminded us about turbotax timmy August leak. Here ya go:

While the volatility comparisons are all tothe 2008/9 period, we noted another more accurate comparison... This surge looks like the August 2007 period when Geithner leaked the news of a 50bp discount rate cut and enabled the last hoorah for banks to unwind over-extended longs into retail greater fools...

 

Just remember they run the same play over and over again. These guys do not have to be crafty because the world is so addicted to entertainment which is why they are so open in fucking all of us. Nobody remembers the drunken orgy in their ass the night before. Keep your head up we will get the show deserved soon enough.,

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:55 | 6483067 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I agree, they run the same show over and over again. It's "worked" over and over again. What/who is going to stop them? Debt? Seriously? How much till we tip? As an individual, I would have been to the poor house by now. Why isn't the fed, the counrty? The fed has so meshed the world with their fiat, it's not going to be easy to unwind it. Do you really think china and russia would still be in this game if there was a good way out. Maybe over 50 years.

Sit back and watch the shitshow. After all, I read an article here a day or two ago about china selling treasuries. 100 billion or so. That's a large number. Didn't even blip the treasury market. Why? It's a shitshow. Until the major money changers decide they're done, you all will be talking about doom when the debt is at $30 trillion. It's all relative.There's a reason for the old saying, don't fight the fed. 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:03 | 6483097 saints51
saints51's picture

If I state my true feelings on who or what will stop them it will become a derailed thread. My beliefs differ from a lot on ZH. Stay patient, laugh at the poor saps who think they are smart , and enjoy the show. If you feel it is overwhelming then by all means step away. Life is not worth worrying about a central bank 24-7.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 20:45 | 6483585 jtmo3
jtmo3's picture

I get it. My issue is the same issue I have with this country. Common sense and stability are out the window and shit doesn't make sense any more. There's no logic to things. I've been watching this show for years and years and listening to all the "experts" talk about this is going to happen and that can't last, and the markets are finally giving up the ghost. If I had a dollar.......

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:45 | 6483050 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

"I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth; banks are going bust; shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter; punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.

We know the air is unfit to breathe and our food is unfit to eat. And we sit watching our TVs while some local newscaster tells us that today we had fifteen homicides and sixty-three violent crimes, as if that's the way it's supposed to be!

We all know things are bad -- worse than bad -- they're crazy.

It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, so we don't go out any more. We sit in the house, and slowly the world we're living in is getting smaller, and all we say is, "Please, at least leave us alone in our living rooms. Let me have my toaster and my TV and my steel-belted radials, and I won't say anything. Just leave us alone."

Well, I'm not going to leave you alone.

I want you to get mad!

I don't want you to protest. I don't want you to riot. I don't want you to write to your Congressman, because I wouldn't know what to tell you to write. I don't know what to do about the depression and the inflation and the Russians and the crime in the street.

All I know is that first, you've got to get mad.

You've gotta say, "I'm a human being, goddammit! My life has value!"

So, I want you to get up now. I want all of you to get up out of your chairs. I want you to get up right now and go to the window, open it, and stick your head out and yell,

"I'm as mad as hell,

and I'm not going to take this anymore!!"

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:21 | 6483136 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

You know what? That little soliloquy would make the perfect foundation for a movie!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:53 | 6483200 cooky puss
cooky puss's picture

+1 for the "Network (1976)" movie reference

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:56 | 6483080 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Why don't you just go fuck yourself. Take your sorry ass over to watch Cramer or CNBC or FoxNews. Nobody here cares about the opinion of dickwads like you  -except for a few other dickwads trolling the site. 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:17 | 6483131 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

Don't blame ZH'ers for wanting to let the world know the game is rigged and that those who run it are after your money and are pure evil. 

Take another blue pill and don't call me in the morning...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:43 | 6483180 Rubicon727
Rubicon727's picture

I thank God for Zerohedge every day even though, as a liberal arts major, I often struggle to understand the system's complexities.

if it weren't for Zerohedge, I'd be as financially illiterate as is 85% of the American public.

 

THANK YOU TYLER AND ALL WHO PROVIDE ARTICLES AND LEAVE COMMENTS AT THIS SITE!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:17 | 6483241 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

I second that. Thank you tylers.

In regards to your comment about understanding the system's complexities. It's probably not that complex. I'm starting to realize it's pretty simple:

[I do something dumb] <-transactions->  [I hope someone else is dumber] 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 22:08 | 6483787 Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

Take the blue pill then.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:15 | 6482973 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

In one year +0% on the SPY on abysmal volume. Who wants to be a bagholder?

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:15 | 6482974 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Not as volatile as other days, but for me today takes the cake as a poster child for broken markets: CTA mavens vs. month-end tape-painters vs. sorority delta-gamma hedgers vs. Jackson Holy-Rollers vs. European QE front-runners vs. Oil-Slickers.  Ludicrous, and in the end they’ve merely canceled each other out.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:20 | 6482997 khnum
khnum's picture

in the final few minutes it was down 80 then bang in one movement of the ticker down 30,thats some big bucks in one hit

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:23 | 6483005 wizteknet
wizteknet's picture

canceled each other out till next week

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:23 | 6483010 jump_mutha_fukah
jump_mutha_fukah's picture

Think they sucked in some dumb money at the end of this week...largely on the back of oil...think by next week after huricanes and wars prove uneventful the narrative is going to be WTF

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:35 | 6483033 saints51
saints51's picture

I agree the dumb money was sucked in and events will be dull. Oil will have erased this rise by payrolls imo. But you never know as we don't have real markets.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:37 | 6483039 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

There are some smaller institutional dip-buyers so petrified of being left behind their 'bogies' that they likely nibbled, but with tight stops machines may be salivating over.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:45 | 6483051 jump_mutha_fukah
jump_mutha_fukah's picture

I'm just glad to get my 70-71 close on TNA...the roll at the close puts me pretty deep in the black with my initial call spread with no way of losing anything if we get a moonshot. Was tempted to roll a little deeper in the money but my better judgment went with a roll from 68 to the 69's. Have a real hard time justifying wide spreads with this environment. Hope you made a few scalps today...I could tell from the open it was going to be a strike pinning day all the way. Market makers must have really been caught off gaurd this week.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:59 | 6483069 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

An option pro like you can really play this craziness, that's great   I only did two trades all week ending flat, yesterday was the only day my 15/60 methodology was in force and I couldn't trade the afternoon, other days a wider range of participants blunted the standard algo patterns, turning back everything prior to normal targets, and minute-to-minute swings obviated any favorable risk/reward bracket to be long 3X funds, IMO.  I'm built for a "typical" day that allows for precise entries, haven't seen one in many days :)

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:02 | 6483095 jump_mutha_fukah
jump_mutha_fukah's picture

Sounds like you have some pretty complex metrics going on there. One thing I admire about you guys is always going home in cash for the day...us options guys should be required to buy stock in pepto bismol before being alowed to make our first trade...that and pre-enrolment in AA :)

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:09 | 6483105 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

But they say a glass of wine or two is good for you ... Actually the first half of this year was the worst in many years to be a pure day-trader, as most of the moves were overnight gaps, with several months of mostly holding flat from 10 - 3:45, such that even with your entire account in TZA for hours, you were lucky to get $50.  That changed suddenly a few weeks ago, and then China gummed up the works.   Hopin' for a return to algo-control in Sept, they're bastards but predictable bastards ...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 22:23 | 6483821 Peak Finance
Peak Finance's picture

LOLZ This:

Actually the first half of this year was the worst in many years to be a pure day-trader, as most of the moves were overnight gaps

Thanks god for saying that, so it wasen't just me then :)  There was one day this year that was a small ramp up early then literally a flatline all day like a dead guy. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 09:14 | 6484347 Username_Taken
Username_Taken's picture

Friday's no-volume market was evident in the S+P. It felt like a typical late-summer day after a sizeable move before the bells. I've wrapped up my first year of trading this month, and it's been a learning experience to say the least.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:15 | 6483121 Montani Semper ...
Montani Semper Liberi's picture

 Some awesome 60, 80, and 100 point icicles on the DJIA today. Looked like something out of Frozen.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:18 | 6482980 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Algos playing with their digital Yo-Yo's today.

A child born in 2008 has never seen a rate hike, and neither have their Grandparents!

How about paying responsible people to save instead of encouraging gambling in the casino you disingenuous hyena's!?!?

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:53 | 6483199 Itch
Itch's picture

Did you hear about the marsupial casino? The mouse always wins.  

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:56 | 6483204 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

disneyland, or chuck e cheese?

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:18 | 6482988 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

You all deserve to hang together.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:21 | 6483001 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Maybe you'd like to fuck-off and we're somehow preventing you from doing just that ?...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:30 | 6483019 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

You think this is a video game.

 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:37 | 6483037 FSFT
FSFT's picture

No, we think you're a retard

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:28 | 6483150 Montani Semper ...
Montani Semper Liberi's picture

 So Chuck, give us your opinion of Andy Petitte, and don't hold back this time.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:10 | 6483223 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Fucking you Chuck, just leave already 

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:19 | 6482993 jump_mutha_fukah
jump_mutha_fukah's picture

Shitshow of a close but somewhat expected. IWM bumped up against the lower trendline of previous falling wedge...may prove to be resistance...not so sure we have seen the last of the selling.

Off topic but As much as I hate CNBS...Guy Adami has been pretty spot on for awhile now...If those turds lose him and Santeli, they might lose the 5 viewers they have left

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:57 | 6483054 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Could be, but I've always felt trendlines, wedges, etc. are now less important than central DMAs and volatility envelopes (given the mean reversion world we live in), and looking back a year or two, IWM has never failed to quickly reclaim its 20 DMA once it pierces either the top or bottom volatility envelope and then closes within it, as RUT did this week.  A Jackson Hole surprise could negate this proclivity.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:25 | 6483013 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

The last time two times the dow went YOY at a +0% looks like March 2007-March 2008 and Sept 2010-Sept 2011.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:27 | 6483017 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Everything is wonderful.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:37 | 6483020 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

nothing really out of character from what we've been witness to for a few years now...lots of straight lines up in the last few minutes

 

was the sp500 death cross today?

50 ma at 2074.53

200 ma at 2075.41

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:31 | 6483026 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

I have no idea why this popped into my mind, but.

The worlds bestest 'Socialist', for you mind not him has a personal fortune of about £25 million and a housing empire not far off.  Never mind the lifetime personal security 'Detail' stupid cunts like me are 'Forced' to pay.

The horrible fucking stain on the face of humanity must be fucking shitting himself, eh?

I would kill this cunt with my bare hands if he came anywhere near where I could get at the cunt.

And stocks end green eh?  Really?  Who gives even one fuck, never mind two....

Eh?

;-)

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:34 | 6483032 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I think we're seeing a lot of panic corporate buy backs happening, going into September. Rates are going higher, but the market is going to dictate them. (China)

  Another troubling axiom, is the fact that credit is getting even more expensive, so even if the fed. doesn't lift rates, the cost of borrowing is going higher. This is why I've been short corporate debt, and will continue to be so.

 Next up is the MBS inverse trade, because the markets are dictating higher borrowing costs, not the Fed.

 The Fed. might lift the official  rate, and then use the excuse of a massive selloff to initiate more easing, even though implied risk has been moving higher from instability in the credit markets.

 The BoJ and PBoC are in "hyperdrive", and this currency war is only in the 3rd inning of 9. Emerging economies love having their currencies weakened. They DON'T like higher borrowing costs. You can hedge against F/X rate differentials, but borrowing(interest/risk) costs are harder to calculate.

 From what I'm seeing, the macro carry trade is quietly unwinding and Japan /China is spending massive ammounts of F/X reserves to soften the blow. The usd/jpy should be trading the 115-117 handle right now. Another issue traders should be aware of is the axj/usd trade. Asian economies use jpy as a funding currency vs their own, as they peg to Japan and China instead of the $usd.

 This dead cat is running out of crack Bitchez. look out below

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:38 | 6483041 saints51
saints51's picture

Tyler,

Out of all the guest bloggers, please contact Yen to write. The guy posts great comments with sound advice.

+1 YC

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:51 | 6483163 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

But you don't really think he uses crack do you?

Because that is like wearing a fur coat, that is cruel.

It is a Reference to Music Culture...

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 10:31 | 6483209 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

deleted

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:18 | 6483235 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Cool song maybe you will change your vote.

If I Had $1,000,000 - Barenaked Ladies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHacDYj8KZM

For Reference look 1:55 Minutes in.

- And I am so sorry that you guys don't know this Band. S/

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:30 | 6483157 JamaicaJim
JamaicaJim's picture

Excellent Yen

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:39 | 6483042 BurningBetty
BurningBetty's picture

Shorting against unlimited supply of toilet paper can get ugly.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:41 | 6483045 saints51
saints51's picture

sharting can get ugly but with an unlimited supply of dollars, no reason your ass will be clean and green.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:57 | 6483207 Itch
Itch's picture

Especially since they bought so much toilet paper on the way up...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:51 | 6483064 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Well WTF are we supposed to do?  Mom and Pop usually hold the bag and they've abandoned the markets.

 

It's downright criminal the lengths we have to go to simplly to cash out, the thankless little plebians.

 

-  The Boyz

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 16:52 | 6483066 polo007
polo007's picture

According to Guggenheim Partners:

http://www.guggenheimpartners.com/perspectives/media/rates-must-rise-to-...

Rates Must Rise to Avert Next Crisis

July 17, 2015

In 1898, Swedish economist Knut Wicksell argued that there existed a “natural” rate of interest that balanced the supply and demand of credit, assuring the appropriate allocation of saving and investment.

Should market interest rates remain below the natural rate for an extended period, investors will borrow excessively, allocating capital into less productive investments, and ultimately into purely speculative ones.

This is what the US economy faces today after years of meagre borrowing costs. Policymakers have created a Wicksellian dilemma where investment spurred by low interest rates is driving economic growth, but these inefficient investments support growth at the expense of lower productivity in the economy.

In recent years, this investment has flowed into housing, commercial real estate, and equities, driving asset prices higher, exactly the goal of the Federal Reserve in the wake of the financial crisis. But as the recovery in real estate and equities matures, a darker side of this imbalance between natural and market rates is beginning to emerge. Many investments today using artificially cheap capital are not increasing productivity – they are being made, because money is cheap and the profit motive is strong.

Consider the evidence. This year likely will witness record US stock buybacks; the second biggest year for mergers and acquisitions; the highest percentage of non-investment grade borrowers among new issuers of corporate debt; and a record for covenant-light loan issuance. In the midst of all this, stock prices are appreciating at the slowest pace since the financial crisis. Why? Because top-line growth is low and productive investments in core businesses are wanton.

Over time, the natural rate of interest should roughly equate to the average return on new capital investment. Distortions in economic activity begin to occur when the natural rate varies materially from the market rate.

The aftermath of the current period of corporate borrowing and splurging will be nasty. Consider that the majority of defaults of US high-yield bonds during 2008 and 2009 were loans originated between 2005 and 2007 – the final three years of the last credit cycle when M&A and leveraged buyouts peaked. Similar to today, credit remained cheap and the Fed was slow to raise interest rates.

We are not back in the frothy days of 2007, but we are leaving the realm of smart investment decisions and moving into the “silly season” when investors become convinced that recession is nowhere on the horizon and market downside is limited.

It is a world where asset prices continue to appreciate and confidence remains strong, while capital chases a shrinking pool of productive investment opportunities. Similar to the run-up to 2007, rising asset prices and malinvestments today may be sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis.

The harsh reality is extended periods of malinvestment result in declining productivity growth, lower potential output, and slower increases in living standards. A failure to normalize market interest rates soon will result in more capital plowed into investments that are less productive and more speculative.

As productivity declines, long-term growth will be stunted. Eventually, inflationary pressures will build, forcing market interest rates to rise. The longer market rates remain below the natural rate the greater the purge will be once higher rates induce a recession, causing a sharp rise in defaults among malinvestments made during the period of cheap credit.

Today looks a lot like 2004 or 2005, when investors were blissfully ignorant of what awaited. It is still early, but I get increasingly concerned the longer I see undisciplined investors clamoring for bonds with suspect credit worthiness at ludicrously low yields. Higher rates, higher prices, or both are on the horizon. Before long, some of those bonds may become toxic waste.

The good news is there remains time to take action. Policymakers can still make adjustments to avoid the worst phase of the credit cycle. To reduce the continued accommodation of these marginal investments, the US central bank should normalize rates soon. For investors, the time has come to consider opportunities to book gains in assets that in the reasonable light of day a prudent investor would never buy.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:09 | 6483109 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

TZA next week looks like a good play...

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:08 | 6483103 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

Wait....are you saying the market's rigged?!   (((Shocked face)))

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2015/08/what-if-crash-is-as-rigged-as.html

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:11 | 6483107 Barnaby
Barnaby's picture

Like a u-boat captain with a tiefenmesser 50 meters in the red, every mutual fund holder bit his knuckles and waited it out.

The system works. It shall prevail for white investors, I'm convinced.

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 17:39 | 6483174 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

At least I can sleep better... the market is rigged..if it crashes "the system" will fix it...so I can continue to buy on the dips...what me worry!

Fri, 08/28/2015 - 18:17 | 6483244 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Have seen a few here (yours truly included) posit that we might see both a rate hike AND QE.  Would not shock me in the slightest and oddly makes a lot of sense strategically.  

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