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Citigroup Chief Economist Thinks Only "Helicopter Money" Can Save The World Now
Having recently explained (in great detail) why QE4 (and 5, 6 & 7) were inevitable (despite the protestations of all central planners, except for perhaps Kocharlakota - who never met an economy he didn't want to throw free money at), we found it fascinating that no lessor purveyor of the status quo's view of the world - Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter - that a global recession is imminent and nothing but a major blast of fiscal spending financed by outright "helicopter" money from the central banks will avert the deepening crisis. Faced with China's 'Quantitative Tightening', the economist who proclaimed "gold is a 6000-year old bubble" and cash should be banned, concludes ominously, "everybody will be adversely affected."
China has bungled its attempt to slow the economy gently and is sliding into “imminent recession”, threatening to take the world with it over coming months, Citigroup has warned. As The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard reports, Willem Buiter, the bank’s chief economist, said the country needs a major blast of fiscal spending financed by outright "helicopter" money from the bank to avert a deepening crisis.
Speaking on a panel at the Council of Foreign Relations in New York, Mr Buiter said the dollar will “go through the roof” if the US Federal Reserve lifts interest rates this year, compounding the crisis for emerging markets.
"So why it matters is that the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy is really in question - the messing around with monetary policy, the hinting on doing things on the fiscal side through the policy banks. But I think the only thing that is likely to stop China from going into, I think, recession - which is, you know, 4 percent growth on the official data, the mendacious official data, for a year or so - is a large consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus, funded through the central government and preferably monetized by the People’s Bank of China.
Well, they’re not ready for that yet. Despite, I think, the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this.
So I think they will respond, but they will respond too late to avoid a recession, and which is likely to drag the global economy with it down to a global growth rate below 2 percent, which is my definition of a global recession. Not every country needs go into recession. The U.S. might well avoid it. But everybody will be adversely affected."
Or translated from 'economist' to English - a massive helicopter drop of cash (well 1s and 0s) into the inflating hands of Chinese soon-to-be-consumers is al lthat can the world from another recession... and The Chinese leadership may need to stare into the abyss before they actually pull the trigger. Just think of the pork prices?
Mr Buiter had some more to add on the idiocy of Chinese Equity markets. He said the stock market crash in Shanghai and Shenzhen...
...is a sideshow. Consumption effects, you know, wealth effects, minor. Almost no capex in China is funded through share issue. And so it is a symbol of the policy failure rather than intrinsically economically important.
China’s problems are excessive leverage in the corporate sector, in the local government sector, and the very fragile banking system, and shadow banking system. As Chen pointed out, it won’t be allowed to collapse because it is underwritten by the government, but it won’t be a source of great funding strength.
There is excess capacity and a pathetically low rate of return on capital expenditure, right? Invest 50 percent of GDP and get, even in the official data, 7 percent growth. The true data is probably something closer to 4 ½ percent or less. So it is an economy that, I think, is sliding into recession.
And what the stock market reminds us of, I think, especially this sequence of the government first cheerleading the stock market boom and bubble - because quite a few of the local pundits believed that this was a great way of deleveraging without paying for the corporate sector, to have a stock market bubble. And then, of course, the rather panicky and incompetent reaction in response.
So, once again, why it matters is that the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy is really in question.
* * *
So, it seems, all of a sudden - despite the permabulls, asset-gatherers, and commission-takers saying otherwise - China matters! As Bloomberg notes, China’s deepening struggles are starting to make a bigger dent in the global economic outlook.
“We’re seeing evidence that the slowdown is broader than expected” in China, saidMarie Diron, a London-based senior vice president at Moody’s and one of the report’s authors. “It’s long been clear that there’s a slowdown in the manufacturing and construction sector, but the service sector was more resilient. That’s still the case, but we’re seeing some signs of weakness in the labor market.”
“We continue to believe that the greatest risks to our growth forecasts remain to the downside,” Schofield wrote. Actual growth is “probably even lower” because of “likely mis-measurement in China’s official data,” he wrote.
* * *
Which, is exactly what we have been saying for the last 2 years as the rolling collapse of China's ponzi becomes ever more evident (and hidden by ever more manipulation)...
Here, for those curious, are links to previous discussions:
- China Dumps Record $143 Billion In US Treasurys In Three Months Via Belgium
- China's Record Dumping Of US Treasuries Leaves Goldman Speechless
- How The Petrodollar Quietly Died And Nobody Noticed
- Why It Really All Comes Down To The Death Of The Petrodollar
- Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks
- What China's Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse
- It's Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington
And so on and so forth.
In short, stabilizing the currency in the wake of the August 11 devaluation has precipitated the liquidation of more than $100 billion in USTs in the space of just two weeks, doubling the total sold during the first half of the year.
In the end, the estimated size of the RMB carry trade could mean that before it’s all over, China will liquidate as much as $1 trillion in US paper, which, as we noted on Thursday evening, would effectively negate 60% of QE3 and put somewhere in the neighborhood of 200bps worth of upward pressure on 10Y yields.
And don't forget, this is just China.
...
The potential for more China outflows is huge: set against 3.6trio of reserves (recorded as an “asset” in the international investment position data), China has around 2trillion of “non-sticky” liabilities including speculative carry trades, debt and equity inflows, deposits by and loans from foreigners that could be a source of outflows (chart 2). The bottom line is that markets may fear that QT has much more to go.
What could turn sentiment more positive? The first is other central banks coming in to fill the gap that the PBoC is leaving. China’s QT would need to be replaced by higher QE elsewhere, with the ECB and BoJ being the most notable candidates. The alternative would be for China’s capital outflows to stop or at least slow down. Perhaps a combination of aggressive PBoC easing and more confidence in the domestic economy would be sufficient, absent a sharp devaluation of the currency to a new stable. Either way, it is hard to become very optimistic on global risk appetite until a solution is found to China’s evolving QT.
* * *
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I think I'll stick with the barbarous relic........
Only Trump can save the world now.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38731/zirp-leading-to-economic-collapse-much-higher-gold-and-silver-prices
Pig up? Pig down? Pig out?
Helicopter money for the banks.
Long helicopters
Precisely.
Helicopter money is the only thing that did, and can, save Citigroup.
And on the backs of regular working folks and future generations. Amurika!
Buiter: To save the currency you have to destroy the currency.
What a clown.
Assholes. Every last one of them, and all highly paid to fuck it up even more.
BTW, the original concept of "Helicopter money" was meant as a cash grant/gift to all citizenry so as to goose discretionary spending as opposed to Hank Paulson's generous free money gift to the bankers/Wall Street. At least he didn't outright favor Goldman (cough cough, AIG in my throat, cough, sputter ... may I have a glass of Dom Periginon, please, cough)
Monetary inflation has many negative impacts and harms all in the end.
Might as well give out poisoned candies.
Why are people so intolerant of recessions these days?
Just let it happen. Stop fighting the business cycle.
FINE BY ME!!! HELO-DROP ME 10 OR 12 DUFFLE BAGS FULL OF FRESHLY PRINTED HUNDOS, YOU FUCKING SCUMBAGS!!! That's nothing to you fags, right? Drop me 100,000 bucks so I can keep scooping up this cheap phyzz. What do you fucking psychos care about 100 grand printed out of thin air or printed on a bunch of colored paper???? That's all I need....that's all I'm askin' for, you fucking shitbags. FUCK YOU!
I will immediately trade it all in for every single fucking ounce of physical silver Buffalos and/or Eagles or any other silver I can get my hands on, motherfuckers.
Howz about trickling that kinda economics down on Main Street, you fucking scumbags?????
Fuck off.
I agree with above the money only goes to Wall Street, Bankers and DC politicans and the FSA. Very little of the QEs actually wound up in the hands of the Middle Class ... only the losses are shoved down the Middle Class throats, what's left of them anyway.
what is *not* on the table is, is "default" and/or "debt forgiveness"
we do not discuss such things
or if we do, we might call them "quantitative re-surfacing"
"quantitative re-obligating"
re-obligationeering
quantitative nullification
debt de-listing
also, we do not discuss dollar revaluation, for which a term already exists
hugs,
gideon gono
There really are no viable options. If we don't print money, then the global economy will fall into a huge pit. And, if we do keep printing money, then all we have to look forward to is an endless Japanese-style recession. So what's a central banker to do?
"Japan's lost decades" were only lost from a financial paper point of view.
In the mean time they had one of the most competetive economies in the world through all those decades and one of the highest living standards in the world. From a man on the street point of view, they did fine.
Yeah, in the micro it "worked." The macro shows that it only "worked" because everyone was blowing bubbles, bubbles that kept the Japanese factories cranking away... And then Korea and China ramped up. Meanwhile Japan has shit for resources; and, their demographics are looking pretty shaky for the future.
Yeah, they "did fine," until they didn't...
"...nothing but a major blast of fiscal spending financed by outright "helicopter" money from the central banks will avert the deepening crisis."
Nothing can "avert" the coming currency collapse. All money printing will do is prolong it and make it more severe and painful. Of course, there isn't a single person in power today that has the maturity and will to suggest real solutions and thus, everyone will suffer while the criminals responsible will most likely get away with it yet again.
They'll come up with something completely opaque like "Asset Recovery Program (ARP) or "Bi-Lateral Undervalued Reserves Program" (BURP)
TARP originally was real helicopter money until Paulsen stole it:
http://dailybail.com/home/the-hammer-gets-hit-by-a-tree.html
You've gotten the wrong attitude, OTPBD(H).
'Obi-Wan Bernake; YOU are our ONLY HOPE!'.
SHORT version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xIFJLMyUwrg
LONG version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUaxXsqGeFI
OBI-WAN YELLEN, YOU are our ONLY HOPE!
Nukes mostly.
Can't really thin the herd with a couple wars any more, it will go hot.
It's strange that business cycles coincide with election cycles. At least they once did, now they are perpetual. Why is that?
It is not a natural business cycle. It is a weapons of mass debt implosion that is coming due - a debt collapse that will surpass the Great Depression in magnitude.
The definition of a chump is anyone who thought Alan Greenspan ever meant to helicopter money to ordinary people.
Geez. "Kick another field goal, Charlie Brown," Lucy.
The solution is for citizens to no longer accept dollars. Everyone wants the solution to come from the top, but the people at the top are the ones that are causing the problem.
Willy needs an apple atop his head, and an archer with a bow not quite sighted-in aiming at him.
If your gonna drop , at least drop it to the consumer
Is it possible to shoot them down or hack them?
DAMNIT!
You have to be more SPECIFIC when posing your question (one question at a time, PLEASE).
'Is it possible to shoot them down?'
Of COURSE it is, but it requires a considerable loss of resources.
'Is it possible to HACK them?'
PERHAPS this is the 'better way'. 'Ashley Madison' and 'Hillary' are leading examples of the assymetric strategy that you might espouse.
Sincerely,
OPSEC 1 ('Anonymous')
WE CANNOT FORGET, AND WE DO NOT FORGIVE.
EVER.
YOU SHOULD EXPECT 'US'.
BIO:
"I am a nobody trying to simple survive wondering how and when and why to preserve capital. I love reading this site. The insite is spectacular and spot on. Thank you for providing such a forward thinking service to us nobodies that we might survive the coming storm. I am not real big on politicians of any flavor but do revere the founders whose vision started us, this country in the right direction. I am a big supporter of freedom and liberty and the Constitution."
Not bad. NOT BAD, AT ALL...
Fascism already failed.
Insufficient Fascism. Try harder.
OT, or not? new credit card offers 0% for 12 months then get this interest rate of 25%..tylers the cost of borrowing for us taxunits, vs prime and zirp at the discount window could make a good thread...in this crazy world BK banks & co's get the best interest rate on loans..nuthing in the finance press.
The lemmings beg for a leader. He will just lead them off a different cliff.
Only Trump can save the world? Lol, holy fuck.
What the fuck is wrong with people? Are assholes the best sheep can hope for as shepherds?
I vote we just execute anyone who wants to be leader, until no-one sticks their hand up anymore.
Only Trump can fuck things up less than Hitlarry.
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If you would like to try it out, you can now do it for free, the 1st month. After that, I only ask $15 a month to compensate for my time and information.
Take a look at my site and let me know if you have questions. And please don't react negative to this post, there's enough trouble out there that adds no value.
Enjoy the day!
Oh yeah? lol
Hi, Asshole!
NOTHING wrong in the USA today that couldn't be fixed with a few more William McKinley's, Grover Cleveland's, James Madison's and Salmon P.Chase's floating around. And I mean NOTHING
I'm going to put diamonds in bandaid cans and run around all day asking people "is it safe?"
The hybrid war on China has an economic nuclear backfire
Apparently someone at Langley forgot that China could dump $2 trillion in Treasuries . . .
Yes, but aren't they now calling cash a barbarous relic too?
QE did not "work" because it only gave money to rich people.
If you REALLY want to give inflation a boost, hyou must give money to the common people.
Tax cuts, tax credits, infrastructure projects, etc etc etc.....and outright handouts.
Well, THAT'S not going to happen anytime soon. Much easier to boost governmental spending into the stratoshphere, run up a huge deficit and have the central bank buy up all the paper debt that generates.
That's really what's going on here. The private sector's been flat on it's back for years. So you fill the growth hole with government spending to keep GDP at least flat-ish and have your own central bank fill the debt hole with printed money. It's a nearly closed-loop system that generates very little (if any) inflation.
This all works beautifully, of course, until you realize that the side-effect of all this is to further squeeze out the private sector with every printed dollar. Additionally, governments are well known for being terrible allocators of capital. Their spending doesn't generate GROWTH like private sector spending does. Productivity and GDP growth flatlines as the deficits and debts continue to spiral upward. It's a vicious cycle.
And Japan's been doing it for decades.
Print money to fund jobs/startups, it really is that simple. You can even selectively target areas to increase supply via money printing.
You are right of course. But you have missed the aspirations of those that pull the strings. Power is the end game not just wealth.
There are very few areas where a company can start up, hire workers, and make a profit. America is too expensive. The country is much like the guy who has so much debt that he has to make a six figure income to have a $25,000 lifestyle.
Start up is expensive because of all the prior printing has inflated the value of hard assets like property, plant and equipment.
What we should really do is stop printing, balance our government budgets, and allow failure. This would bring reality to our markets and prices would be discovered based on merit rather than politics.
Without question, many who are enjoying life now as wealth is redistributed politically would suffer.
I am tired of carrying them.
FM,
That is just crazy talk. You will never make it on Wall Street, in the .fed, or .gov talking nonsense like that. Everyone wins. There is no failure, no 'deflation', nope, it is only moar, moar, moar printing which leads to moar, moar, moar excesses.
Now report to your local FEMA camp relocation center for immediate Keynesian training.
Don't worry, they will shut down Main Street so that they can bankrupt it and buy it up for pennies on the dollar with their trillions in stolen loot.
PUBLICUS:
"Print money to fund jobs/startups, it really is that simple. You can even selectively target areas to increase supply via money printing."
Thy name is 'SOETORO'!
Sincerely,
Rahm Ezikiel Emmanual, MAYOR
How about stopping this meddling altogether?
I once argued that people ought to stop lobbying for more funds for "alternative energy" and instead lobby to get rid of the existing subsidies to "conventional energy!" Chase tail, get dizzy; chase tail, get dizzy...
You are absolutely correct, and herein lies the basic flaw of the American political system.
Nobody is going to go to Congressperson Taint and give him a million bucks to end conventional energy subsidies. Even if doing so would eventually boost the market share for renewables, it would be years or decades before the market share of renewables would expand, too long a process to create a huge rate of return on the money invested.
Giving that same money in return for the passage of tax credits or government grants has an immediate massive rate of return, and you get your money back next year, tenfold.
Now multiply that process by a thousand, ten thousand, or a million instances. Over decades every large company, every large industry, has carved out its own little fiefdom in the supposedly free-market economy in which they possess legislated price or cost advantages which have immunized them from any real competition in the pricing of their goods or services.
Freed from competition, there is even more spare millions lying around with which to bribe the government to retain and even expand these favorable laws and regulations, and politicians forever sticking their hands out for more bribes in the form of campaign contributions. Over time, the situation worsens exponentially.
If any real changes to the status quo seem possible or likely, they are met with a chorus of "but what about the loss of jobs" and "these proposals will devastate our region", and most of them will fail to get any political traction.
In the end, that nation's entire economy is composed of industries that have grown fat and lazy within the walls of government protection, marketing overpriced products and services to the world. Small businesses that cannot afford bribery as an annual budget line item get squeezed out of the economy. Absent large tariffs, imports keep taking a larger and larger share of the market each passing year. Consumers suffer due to higher prices for domestically produced goods and services, job losses as imports rise, and the failures of their small businesses.
Welfare programs abound to limit the carnage among the powerless, and taxes rise to pay for them, reducing funds available for capital expenditures.
Eventually, the economy fades away, maybe with a bang, but more likely with a whimper, like an old man whose arteries have become too sclerotic to move any blood along.
Think of QE as the last gap, a blood thinner of sorts, thinning out the money supply to keep cash flowing for a little while longer.
Catch tail, bite tail, infect tail...
"easier to boost governmental spending into the stratoshphere,"
Ah yes, that other component of our lifeless economy, government employees, like the 1%, have never seen the recession.
Time to trot out Hank Paulson, "give my pals $700 billion, er, I meant $1700 billion, or we plug the kid, er I meant we will short the market, er, I meant the sky will keep falling."
Once we get 30% of population Government employeest we will be "just like Greece". Then we can borrow from the IMF. /sarc
Those 4 year old Detroit cars are ready for another round of Klunkers for Cash, eh?
Bingo, we have a winner.
Yup, this is pretty much a sure sign of the end of growth. The System has no facility for dealing with this situation.
In the end it'll come down to only that which is REAL, physical; the virtual (interest, stock markets, fiat and such) will vaporize into the ether.
You gotta pay alot in taxes for tax breaks to work. Saving someone $25 bucks a month won't ignite an economy.
Seagate
Yeah, another government trick. Reduce taxes on the jobless. And on small business who are dying, while the likes of Apple, G.E. etc., offshore American jobs (and American taxes). All the while having free access to the American market.
Trump, for all his bombast, is the only one that seems to dare talk about the cancer that needs to be cut out of this country.
Broad based tax cuts and cutting back on regulation could work. Tax credits and infrastructure projects have been totally captured by cronies and can't work until that is fixed. I doubt that broad based tax cuts will be possible before 2018. Till then just more "happy days are here again" being played in the media.
We give consumers money (we print), and they buy...goods from China...
We have no industry to speak of, so the benefit would be short-lived, and mostly abroad. The EM's would love that temporary solution, and we have to sell them the paper to finance to currency drop. Something they've already been doing for decades, which is why they had the $100 billion to dump in the first place...
The situation that shortsighted western corporations outsourced us (and the EM's, for that matter) into is permanent and terminal.
There are no solutions beyond collapse and redesign, AFTER genuine accountability by those who caused this mess. They can never have their paws on anything economic or financial again...
m
Wars were once sure things for cranking up inflation, we know we are in deep crap when that won't even do it. The fiat is Farqued.
Hey chistletoe with a message like that YOU should throw your hat in the ring. I might vote one last time
They can park the helicopter in the field across the street form my house.
I can borrow forklift to unload it. My garage will hold quite a bit.
Should be the only requirements for recieving it.
The Fed has printed $4 trillion and got away without any consequences. How many trillions more can the Fed print and avoid any negatives?
China selling a trillion in Treasuries and other emerging markets and Saudi Arabia selling about $500 billion would require the Fed to print another $1.5 trillion to soak up the new supply.
QE to infinity or US bonds collapse
You have touched on the central nerve. So the question is not if but when. Interest rates can never rise. All this talk about it is fallacy unless now is the planned implosion.
John 3:16
I think the Fed have finally figured out that interest rates will rise when USTs get dumped and falsely out them behind the curve, but the reality is they are ahead of the curve and letting other counties (holders of US Bonds) take the fall for rising rates. It's all a game of political survival. We must remember who the rats are when its all over and exterminate them.
yes, and at somepoint while the US is drowning in ever more paper, and after China has dumped all of their US treasuries, they will peg the yuan to gold at a much higher price, stabilizing their own currency, and revealing their vast hoard of metal over the past decade....makes u wonder when they planned this.
Well, Mr. Livr. You and I are the only two people who can see the big picture. Us and a few million Chinese. China is divesting itself of the fake money and buying gold and nonperishable commodities like copper, beryllium, cobalt, etc.
Don't forget ghost cities.
As long as the money never hits circulation, none of it can become inflationary.
Cob webbed thinking. One thing it will do is quicken the end to the PetroDollar, and that will be ultimately inflationary on a near term basis.
Stop with the one dimensional analysis.
Well gawdammut, how am I gonna be able to buy free shit that I don't need and can't afford, if that helicopter don't dump a shitload of cash on ME?
LOL
Do it the American Way, Borrow, Borrow, Borrow and tomorrow Borrow!
they can easily print up another 100 Trillion. how else are they going to pay my SS check?
it will be the saudis and the middle east turn next week to kick over the petrodollar trade by dumping US treasuries and opening up oil sales to the Yuan....
it will be our dollar and our problem now for the US while the rest of world moves into honest trade.....
Not unless the "kingdom" is ready to piss off the one thing between it and every pissed off shiite and abused sunni on earth.
And dont forget Isreali
How about the Saudis and Israel pay for the American military in the Middle East. That ought to reduce the $19 Trillion over time.
Israel pay the US-anything? Ha! ha! Ha! -surely you jest. American Jews will keep making the stupid goyim sheeple pay Israel more and more. Yes we can all afford to max out our credit cards to pay the Jews. They'll keep expanding your credit limits (at 24% interest) forever -as long as you have a home or assets to pledge as collateral, or can pledge over your first born son - or teenage daughter if she is cute.
What does China want with oil. They are going down the tubes.
I hope this time the heliccopter money will finally fall on my lawn as well
Actual growth is “probably even lower” because of “likely mis-measurement in China’s official data,”
Mis-measurement.
Now that's funny.
Mis-measurement is now the latest euphemism for 'lies'.
The intersting thing about this sudden discovery of sub-7% performance is that it is taking place with the same people who have religiously parroted the CCP line for years.
What has changed to make them willing to risk being uninvited to party in China?
This is the same trick that pollsters pull in an election. They send out false data for months in an effort to bend the opinion curve in their client's favor. Then, when it no longer matters, they issue sudden late corrections to square their fake data with the real numbers they have been tracking all along and make themselves look like honest, accurate data brokers.
These guys are squaring up their numbers, which tells you that the end of the game is near.
we just have double double seasonal seasonal adjustment adjustment
I would allow a one time Amazon drone drop of my funny money.
State mandated consuption. Three homes, four cars, six computers - NOW.
and a myRA
and mandated healthcare
The bible likens foolishness with building your foundation on sand. The world has chosen paper mache instead.
Get to da choppa, bitchezzz!
This confirms what doomsday and pm experts were saying after QE1 and QE2....First there would be money printing...then commodoties would skyrocket, then the stock market would hit new highs, growing on the new money.
Then because the world market never recovered in real from 2008, the markets would tank. Then the central banks would really have to print money because QE3 lost it's punch. This is the stage we are entering.
After QE4,5,6,or 7, then hyperinflation would occur...
This is not the end...just the bigginning of the end.
Given the situation that the central banks have cornered themselves into I am not sure their QE-attempts will have that same effect as they used to. It seems that investors, whoever they are and whoever is left, are not buying into CBs promises anymore. Maybe HFT-algos will give an impression, once new QEs get underway, that everything is awesome and there is no need for panic, and that QE4 -> INFINITY will solve the problem. Well, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
For all those that dare to dream that the Fed might drop off some money at your place, or buy up your mortgage- remember you're not in the club.
That's not rain, they're pissing on your head.
Yeah, China went into crazy infrastructure and other civil projects to fight the deflation brougth by the 2007 crisis. They spent a lot of money,but at least they have real things to show for it. The USA, after 4 trillions of printing, can show no infrastructures or other public realization, but a lot of nice yatchs, houses, luxury cars etc. that the 0.1 % have acquired.
I agree with you who cares. China has come a looong way forward in the past 8 years or so while the USA has wasted its QEs. China's pollutuion will get better with time just as usa pollution cleared up post-industrialization. Then, if they can get potable water in their faucets and food safe to eat, I will consider them a huge success.
So the banksters have finally come out in favour of a national dividend---for the Chinese.
Lets see...after the death of the Pacific Ocean, how important is money....
Sarcasm at the Nukepro
Radiation is a conspiracy theory.
Just because we've seen a couple UME's and multi-species die-offs along the Pacific since 2011 doesn't mean anything, its only been
birds,
whales,
dolphins,
walrus,
sardines,
herring,
needlefish,
smelt, …………
drop your own sarc please
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/08/radiation-damage-to-pacific...
Stock, there is no sarcasm in my words.
This kind of silliness (off-topic post here) 1) does not help your cause, and 2) actually demeans your effort, as people will shy away from you when you post on unrelated articles like this. (I.E. you look like a spammer, or bot.) Your information is important, but you detract from your effectiveness. You are smarter than this.
Even if the desperation is only in appeannce, people will still misunderstand you. If I get thrown in a FEMA camp in 3 years, that still preempts getting lung cancer in 12 years. If I lose my house (finances) and go homeless, it matters not that I may get cancer in another decade. You might as well be trying to increase awareness about GMOs (my point being, most murikans don't even know about GMOs either, and how many drink soda and eat chips every day?). Most little people (readers) here haven't been paying attention to the financial world since before 2008. This might help explain why a more recent "international" event is of "no" concern to most in the lower 48.
A+ for intent, F for disemination.
More and more people that I talk to "get it", and Zerohedge does get the word out. I typically get serveral thousands hits from ZH on one article.
For those that have already taken the red pill....they are more receptive to new real information.
Now to get them to act on it.
stock out
Ah, so you're trolling on unrelated articles to get hits for your website.
Well, at least you get a point for being an honest troll.
Surely the devaluation on 8-11 was an accident of coincidence
I would like the tylers to analyze what happens with USD once all these treasuries are sold. USD is expected to soar if FED raises rates, The mechanic there is that if FED raises rates, USD goes up and treasureies are sold by pretty much anyone so that they can repay USD debts. This should depress the USD price as much as I understand, cause value of oil and gold to go up.
Didnt they write there bailout in the last fed buget?
If you find a stack of newly printed 100 dollar bills remember to do the right thing and return them to the police lost and found dept.
Helicopter money is what they should have done in 2009 instead of QE. QE does not work in the race to the bottom. We'll never have wage inflation pressure again because the corporations will just offshore production.
Hopeless cause. The world is magnitudes beyond peak debt already. Any dollars, yen, euros or whatever the hell else you want to print will only fall on future generations to pay back. We are down the rabbit hole and through the looking glass to infinity and beyond. Financialization will be proven to have brought with it a completely unsustainable economic black hole from which there is no escape. The ultimate Roaring 20s global implosion. The Great Depression will be looked on as a desirable escape for what the future likely holds.
Nobody is going to pay back anything. We have reached the end of growth. Default is the order of the day. First it comes in the private sector, then in the municipalities, then in the states and finally in the federal government. What part of bankrupt do people not understand?
What everyone always leaves out of these discussions is... all "printing" and "helicopter drops" drop even more debt on people than they drop currency to spend.
And so, while they remove or lessen short-term squeezes in spending ability in the short run, they increase debt AKA future obligations by even more. In other words, "printing" and "helicopter drops" are simply ways to kick the can down the road, but necessarily make matters worse in the long run.
What might actually help the vast majority of irresponsible individuals, corporations and governments (at the expense of royally screwing all prudent, responsible savers) is to perform "helicopter drops" with no debt attached. This would be a brand new technique by the banksters, and they are very unlikely to take such measures. They would rather the entire planet crash and burn, and 98% of humans die, than create fiat currency that doesn't get paid back to them... even though it would cost them zero to do.
I DO NOT ADVOCATE THE ABOVE ACTION.
Nor would I advocate any action that has anything to do with fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-bits/paper created out of thin nothing.
Quite possibly, the "end of the line" was already reached. Of course they are still doing QE without admitting. Who you do think purchased the $230 billion dollars of treasury bonds the Chinese sold this year?
But to openly start a new QE would completely discredit the federal reserve, central banks in general, and even what most consider Keynesian "economics" in a large number of eyes, even including many mainstream eyes that have backed these frauds for decades.
Which is why, this fall appears to be when the "great fall" begins. The great fall of the markets, the great fall of housing, the great fall of the world economy, the great fall of the banking system, the great fall of the last vestiges of liberty, the great fall of mankind.
excellent. well put.
Yes. It is all about the 'flow'.....we should all know this by now. This is Tyler's crowing achievement of beating this into our heads. If the flow stops (increase money which is increasing debt) then deflation starts to set in (debt destruction, aka money destruction). This is because there is no real wealth creation in the economy to support the massive debts.
All I can say is 'prepare' accordingly. Hopefully things will start speeding up even more in the months, years to come. Hopefully it will all be exposed as a fraud and real solutions implemented within 5-10 years.....this is wishful thinking. Most likely outcome is conflict within the USSA due to the .01% holding out as long as possible to the fraud/ponzi.
Offset by China's
Super sale of T's
Of course, we shall get a quarter percent hike, along with
More Q-ez
Counter balance.
No big deal......
So Buiter thought it was possible for China to pop their many bubbles, which are a connected part of global bubbles, without a collapse and frightening the public, and any current problems are just bad management of how they applied the pin.
What a klutz!
Nothing can save the world let alone free money for bankers, or tax breaks for Corporatists. No matter what these brain dead Central Banksters do they will fail miserably, guaranteed.
When Ponzi schemes run out of other peoples' money they turn to Socialism in order to prolong their greed, and parasitism.
Yes, of course. Helicopter money - printing - and in moderation - is the basis of the modern economy. Insofar as that is true, QE-forever is what we will have. However, that does NOT mean that we also need ZIRP forever. The coupling of QE and ZIRP is not one of necessity, and of the two ZIRP is the more harmful - that is, as long as QE is kept to some modest percentage depending on many factors not all of which I've ever thought about.
QE and ZIRP are also independent of debt. They can be used in combination with debt, or not. The US Fed has been using QE to impose ZIRP and fund Treasury debt. I don't approve of that. There is some fungibility of printing and debt, but also a lot of flexibility to use one or the other or both.
This is the New World Order, and the New Math, and the New Dollar. And the new Yuan.
Wrong. It is not the "New" anything ... its just the next fuck up by central planners at the Fed and soon to be at the Bank of China.
Well they're not new cuz they're already seven years old, and yeah sure this is just a twist on fiat money, but the thing is maybe it's not the boom-right-over-the-cliff twist that old-style economics predicts it should be, I mean, since it is seven years old and we're not entirely over any cliff quite yet - or at least we haven't hit bottom yet.
According to Macquarie Research:
http://tinyurl.com/nnawrak
Emerging Markets vs Developed Markets Equities
What would the average opinion say?
Secular stagnation = no support for EMs…
- As Keynes highlighted, the secret of successful investment is anticipating what the average opinion of an average opinion would be. He also observed that it is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally. Thus there is always a strong desire to follow what appears to be a prevailing consensus. In the case of Emerging Markets (EMs) vs Developed Markets (DMs) equities, the view is forming that EMs are in secular decline and DMs should outperform. Investors are guessing that average opinion of an average opinion would concur. Do we agree?
- We have maintained for a number of years that EM as an asset class no longer exists, as all of EMs’ key engines (deregulation in DM labour markets; opening of product markets and massive rise in global shadow banking and associated leverage) are shutting down. Therefore we maintain that divergence would be the dominant trend and only those EMs that embark on domestic structural reforms would be able to grow (stealing growth in a stagnant environment), whilst those avoiding structural change would regress.
…this has become consensus, but is it right?
- We believe that over the LT, the consensus is right and global secular stagnation (due to overleveraging, overcapacity and structural shifts such as replacement of humans and shortening of supply chains) causes strong deflation, retards growth and is unlikely to unwind for years to come.
- Indeed, in the last six months, EM equities have already underperformed DMs by ~13% (US$) and investors witnessed significant increase in EM currency volatilities. In an environment of strengthening deflation and rising US$, EM headwinds could easily strengthen further, even though a number of EM markets and currencies are touching multi-year lows.
Long-term, yes, but ST depends on policy errors
- However, over a shorter-term horizon (six to nine months), the answer is not as straightforward. We maintain that as supply of global US$ remains tight (in the absence of QE4) and neither ECB, BoJ nor PBoC significantly increase monetary accommodation or provide meaningful stimulus (at least not in the near term), deflationary pressures should get stronger. As discussed here and here, after short-lived rebound, deflationary pressures are again rising.
- However, this assumes a persistent policy failure. Despite rising deflationary pressures, EM dislocation and signs of FX and debt pressures, Central Banks would procrastinate and avoid another dose of stimulus or perhaps Central Banks concluded that global economy is already in a liquidity trap and thus monetary policy is impotent. It is not clear which answer is scarier. Our view remains that apart from Japan and Euro, evidence is not conclusive whether other key economies have already descended into a purgatory, and hence we think monetary policies still matter. As deflationary winds strengthen, it is likely that Central Banks would panic. We maintain that possibility of QE4 into ’16 is real and we also expect a more robust stance by ECB, BoJ and PBoC. This implies that at some stage, investors are likely to experience a sharp (though short-lived) rebound in commodities, EM currencies and equities. The question is whether this snap-back is imminent and our answer is not yet. We need to see much greater pain before an average opinion concludes that snap-back is inevitable.
Buiter is not concerned about the economy, he is concerned about the stability of the fractional reserve banking system. The latter is dispensable for a functioning economy.
The CitiGroup story is pure BS. The world recession is not being caused by China. We're in the early stages of a world credit collapse. There's too much debt that can't be repaid without an ever increasing growth in credit. China's economy slowdown is a consequence of the credit contraction and reduced consumer consumption in the West. Buiter is a bullshitter. The West is trying to blame shift this away from the Fed and its stupid policies. The only helicopter drops will be right here in America. Bank on that Buiter.
The Fed introduced ZIRP and QE to save its pals in their Too Big Too Fail disguise (their cute little moniker).
With that ill-gotten money the TBTF bid up the stock market and commodities. China caught the play- didn't Hillary visit China to discuss how to fuck the little people while enriching yourself.
Commodities soared. More new mines were built. Oil and LNG soared. Cities without residents were built. Container ships were built and railways hauled containers out of ports while hauling commodities back to the ships.
Since jobs and incomes were outsourced here in America, the TBTF tried to do their sleight-of-hand once again by getting people to spend money they didn't have by taking on Debt. 84 months loans on Chevys ? How much crack do these people do ?
Now they are dragging out the old, "we are a service economy" bullshit. What is called "services" are parasitical costs- finance, insurance, government, etc. that has to have some base to draw blood from.
Without manufacturing this country is gone. The whole body will be riddled with something-for-nothing cancer.
When someone talks about "credit contraction" they should be compelled to say debt contraction, for that is what credit is. It is a claim against future earnings/income. What future earnings/income ?
Economics is not a science, there are no hard and established laws or rules.
We have a Chief Economist which is like saying Chief Psychologist as you will never find two to agree on anything,
Then this Chief Economist who spent years studing, looking at charts, trying to look into the future, advising clients and probably wrong 50% of the time, 'thinks' the Fed should do this or that.
There is something wrong with this picture.
THAT "Helicopter Money" ... will have to be paid back by your future taxes!
And don't forget, with interest added as well.
I plan on paying it back with future helicopter money.
who's interest...ed
Last week I took two shits and this week I haven't taken even one shit.
Because? You are a POS?
We don't need no quantitative easing..I love the sound of that..what we need is quantitative redistribution...drop the helicopter money on all the doorsteps of people that are in debt..as consumers we will kick this economy into high gear...wait..didn't they try that in Zimbawe...yes..but they did not go far enough..they only went to QE 13...
QE 13, shlubs, that was weak.
"It is unlawful to throw the currency in the toilet"
Signs on commodes all over Zimbabwe in public toilets. That says all, toilet paper is more valuable than their fiat.
Am I the only one here that notices the mushroom cloud superimposed on the PRC flag? Subtle attempt at Tianjin?
https://app.box.com/s/hfgvcqg7gqh7i27at6sv53ywu87lwarp
And for any here contemplating the Shmita, let's get proper perspective and context ..
http://www.podtrac.com/pts/redirect.mp3/issuesetc.org/podcast/1870082815...
That's Shemitah. Not Shitma. As in I Shitma Pants.
As far as the Shemitah goes, we will do the opposite of what the Shemitah suggests we do.
It's our way, dumber than fuck-all to the end.
Printing money to start business will work... that never leads to misallocation of capital and unsustainable growth...
There are just no short cuts in life... just like those old TV commercials with the smiling honey using the latest workout device that will give you those toned abs without any effort...
Only way through this is default, massive wealth destruction, a great deal of bloodshed, and then a return to sound money...
I wish I could be as smart as a Rothschild economist. Is there a doctorate of zionism?
Scapegoat identified. These fuckers know a shit blizzard is on the way and the finger pointing begins. The only suspense is which major section of dominoes would start falling first, the minor ones have started.
This could escalate to a dumping stampede of UST very quickly. Mr Yellen won't need to raise rates, Mr. Bear will do it.
I thought China's economy didn't matter?
Or maybe it doesn't?
I'm confused.
So I guess this means my bank will extend the credit limit on my credit card from $22k to $222222k. Funny. It's still a plastic rectangle and will still collect dust in a corner.
Hopefully so, then you should be able to pay off your mortgage with one month's wages....problem is, you may have to sell your house to pay for one weeks worth of food. Yay! This will solve all of our woes in one fell swoop....no more debt and no more serfs.
You WILL be GIVEN more debt whether you are debt free or not.
NOT TO WORRY
(There's another school of thought which asks whether we really want that.)
Helicopter money = debt.
What is the world to these people? A few major stock exchanges? So far the wind seems to blow all the helicopter money that way. None of it goes to employing people to create much in the real world. I think it is time for the financiers world to end. It is starving the real world.
There is a balance. People have to eat, have shelter, power, things. That is the real world. A person works, makes something for another person. We keep each other alive. And that is just how much money we need. The rest of the money is for a small number of people to play games with. If we are not careful. Which we tend to do in cycles. We let too much of that play money, begin to have real effects. Negative effects. It fucks up the real economy.
That play money keeps trying hard to vanish, as it should. It keeps bumping into reality and getting bruised. But they keep coming up with ways to keep it seeming to be real. The rich have to keep an enormous amount of inflation happening for themselves. To justify the existence of so much play money. More expensive luxuries. More mansions, ridiculous cars, gold plated everything. Paintings and antiques. They must need more money. They must even own the governments. Whole countries. But never enough. Someone invent liquid gold, so the rich can buy it by the gallons to flush their toilets. So they can feel the need to have more money. Create more play money. Destroy more real money. Real things. Real people.
So many glorified middle managers, thinking they deserve to be multi billionaire masters of the world. When their only talent is paying play money to change the rules of the game, so they can still pretend to win.
The majority, in the reality, need to shake off these leeches. Unfortunately, it will take a lot more misery to get us together.
Don't even have to read the article to just LOL...
The reason China is down is because the Western consumption economies are down and that brings down the countries who deliver the necessary materials for production. The circle is round now and Buiter still is talking bullshit, as usual.
cp
“”So I think they will respond, but they will respond too late to avoid a recession, and which is likely to drag the global economy with it down to a global growth rate below 2 percent, which is my definition of a global recession. Not every country needs go into recession. The U.S. might well avoid it. But everybody will be adversely affected.””
Citi is wrong - they’re putting the cart before the horse. China largely depends on its exports (ps they tried to increase domestic consumption but the ghost-city thing tells us this didn’t quite work out well & Tim Cook must be on some kind of wild drugs if he genuinely thinks Apple iPhone has a huge market-share potential in China). A recession in China is indicative of a global slowdown in exports (see collapsing freight container prices in an earlier post on ZH). That means aggregate global demand is decreasing (not ‘China is f’ing up the global economy)’. If Aggregate demand was high but the China’s economy was going into recession anyway then you’d have a China problem - but this would be a good thing as Chinese exports would become cheaper (and folks shopping at Walmart would experience the price ‘Roll Backs’ associated with this. As we have it right now, China is selling USTs to support a collapsing Yuan, which is the result of collapsing aggregate demand for Chinese exports.
Maybe Mario Draghi will ‘do what it takes’ and buy up all those USTs being dumped by China. After all he’s had a bond shortage problem - so the one trillion Euro QE in the Eurozone can proceed on Asia’s UST dump in the coming weeks and months. But if they don’t, then the Fed will be forced to purchase the flood of USTs as part of a QE4 program (to avoid both a hyper-inflation in bond yields and a hyper-deflation in the prices of Asian goods). This alone is very dangerous: if the ECB and/or Fed don’t move quick enough to ramp up QE they’ll effectively kill the asset price bubble (which we’ve already started to see). If the Fed moves from a rate-hike posture to QE4, they’ll lose confidence and you’ll see a major slide in the USD (which will be inflationary for the US but good for US exports) - but given there’s a decline in aggregate demand for exports Chinese or otherwise, the US will have a difficult time selling goods even in a declining USD environment. The US will likely go into depression.
To get the Chinese spending they just need to put in place a comprehensive welfare state.
With that safety net in place, Chinese consumers will behave more like Western consumers; they can spend without worrying about saving for a rainy day.
Trickle down and supply side economics have just created a 1920s world with all the same problems as they had then:
1920s/2000s - high inequality, high banker pay, low regulation, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons (CEOs), globalisation phase
1929/2008 - Wall Street crash
1930s/2010s - Global recession, currency wars, rising nationalism and extremism
1940s/? - Global war
We are fucked anyway - NO way out of this - except of course BANKRUPCY !
World wide Debt Jubilee reset, coming in 3 2 1 or the 1% is toast... crispy critters