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Fischer Speaks At Jackson Hole: "Fed Should Not Wait Until 2% Inflation To Begin Tightening"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Today's most anticipated event at tthis year's Jackson Hole event was the panel on "Global Inflation Dynamics", not because there is any core inflation in the world (at least not in the way the CPI measures it), especially not now that China is finally in the deflation exporting business, but because the most important speaker at this year's Jackson Hole, Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer, alongside BOE's Mark Carney, the ECB's Constancio and the RBI's Raguram Rajan, would comment.

Moments ago he just did, and courtesy of Market News, here are the highlights:

  • FISCHER: SHLD NOT WAIT TIL 2% INFL TO BEGIN TIGHTENING
  • FISCHER: NEED TO 'PROCEED CAUTIOUSLY' IN NORMALIZING POLICY
  • FISCHER: FED FOLLOWING DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINESE ECONOMY
  • FISCHER: RATE PATH MATTERS MORE THAN TIMING OF FIRST HIKE
  • FISCHER: RISE IN DOLLAR COULD RESTRAIN GDP GROWTH IN '16, '17
  • FISCHER: $ MAY HOLD DOWN CORE INFL 'QUITE NOTICEABLY' THIS YR
  • FISCHER: NEED CAUTION IN ASSESSING INFL EXPECTATIONS AS STABLE
  • FISCHER: 'GOOD REASON' FOR INFL TO MOVE UP AFTER OIL/$ PASSES
  • FISCHER: CORE INFL 'TO SOME EXTENT' IMPACTED BY OIL PRICES
  • FISCHER: ECON SLACK IS ONE REASON CORE INFL HAS BEEN LOW
  • FISCHER: OIL PRICE IMPACT 'OUGHT' TO BE LARGELY ONE-OFF EVENT
  • FISCHER: LABOR MARKET 'APPROACHING' MAX EMPLOYMENT OBJECTIVE

As AP notes, Fischer said there's "good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further." He says, for example, that some effects of a stronger dollar and a plunge in oil prices have already started to diminish.

Both in his speech Saturday and in an interview Friday with CNBC, Fischer made clear that the most recent economic data and the direction of financial markets over the next two weeks would help determine whether the Fed raises rates next month.

 

In the CNBC interview, Fischer acknowledged that before the recent market volatility, "there was a pretty strong case" for a rate hike at the Sept. 16-17 meeting, though it wasn't conclusive. Now, the issue is hazier because the Fed needs to assess the economic impact of events in China and on Wall Street.

More details from MNI:

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said Saturday the U.S. central bank should not wait until it sees 2% inflation to begin tightening policy, but it should proceed cautiously in removing accommodation.

 

"With inflation low, we can probably remove accommodation at a gradual pace," Fischer said in remarks prepared for a panel discussion at the close of the Kansas City Fed's annual Economic Symposium here.

 

Yet, he added, "because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening."

 

Fischer, who as a member of the board votes at every meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, did not comment on a particular time for the first rate hike in more than nine years. He did say, "For the purpose of meeting our goals, the entire path of interest rates matters more than the particular timing of the first increase."

 

That path will be decided by the progress on the Fed's price stability mandate as progress in the labor market continues and is "approaching our maximum employment objective," Fischer said.

 

"To ensure that these goals will continue to be met as we move ahead," Fischer said, "we will most likely need to proceed cautiously in normalizing the stance of monetary policy."

 

Right now though, progress on the Fed's inflation objective is being weighed down by a significant drop in oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar since last year.  Fischer estimates the rise in the dollar, about 17% in nominal terms since last summer, will restrain real GDP growth through 2016 "and perhaps into 2017 as well."  It "could plausibly be holding down core inflation quite noticeably this year," he said.

 

The lower oil prices could also put downward pressure on core inflation, even though this measure is designed to strip out the effects of the volatile prices.

 

"Note that core inflation does not entirely 'exclude' food and energy, because changes in energy prices affect firms' costs and so can pass into prices of non-energy items," he said.

 

Overall, though, Fischer sounded optimistic these factors will prove transitory. "While some effects of the rise in the dollar may be spread over time, some of the effects on inflation are likely already starting to fade," he said.

 

"The same is true for last year's sharp fall in oil prices, though the further declines we have seen this summer have yet to fully show through to the consumer level," he said.

 

The transitory nature of these factors and "given the apparent stability of inflation expectations," he said, "there is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further."

 

In addition, "slack in the labor market has continued to diminish, so the downward pressure on inflation from that channel should be diminishing as well," he said.

 

But Fischer warned that Fed olicymakers should "be cautious in our assessment that inflation expectations are remaining stable."

 

One reason "is that measures of inflation compensation in the market for Treasury securities have moved down  somewhat since last summer," he said.

 

He added, though, "these movements can be hard to interpret, as at times they may reflect factors other than inflation expectations, such as changes in demand for the unparalleled liquidity of nominal Treasury securities."

 

Fischer didn't comment much in his prepared remarks on other recent financial market volatility, except to say "At this moment, we are following developments in the Chinese economy and their actual and potential effects on other economies even more closely than usual."

In broad terms, this is a repeat of what he told CNBC's Liesman yesterday, which resulted in the market getting spooked in a "not dovish enough" reaction, if only until the last 15 minute mauling of VIX, which sent the DJIA down from -110 to almost positive.

What is clearly missing from Fischer's speech is even the faintest grasp that China is now actively exporting deflation via active devaluation, which is a double whammy for the Fed's "financial conditions" as it means not only will US inflation remains persistently low (the way the BLS measures it), but the ongoing selloff in TSYs will force the Fed to get involved soon, especially if ongoing selling in both TSYs and stocks wreaks more havoc with 'risk parity" models, potentially forcing the world's biggest hedge fund Bridgewater to delever and/or unwind some of its massive $150+ billion in positions.

However once again, the most important question was missing: now that China is engaging in reverse QE and selling tens if not hundreds of billions in US Treasurys every month, with the US facing a $450 billion budget deficit (hence needing to issue half a trillion in debt), the Fed balance sheet contracting by over $250 billion, just how does the Fed plan on tightening if what it should instead be doing is easing, and massively at that.

Full speech here (link):

 

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Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:43 | 6484819 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Because there's never going to be 2% inflation.

 There will be 2% devaluation though. ;-D

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:50 | 6484831 remain calm
remain calm's picture

Shoot him. Why does anyone think this ass hole matters. He and all his lying banker friends have stolen from savers and given to debters, BANKS. The man and his friends have done more harm to the average person than Hitler. We need to cut all their voice boxes out.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:55 | 6484858 turtle
turtle's picture

"RATE PATH MATTERS MORE THAN TIMING OF FIRST HIKE".

We are not talking about just one rate rise.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:12 | 6484889 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

 

http://www.safehaven.com/article/38731/zirp-leading-to-economic-collapse-much-higher-gold-and-silver-prices

 

The FED with its snake oil prescriptions is going to cause extraordinary destruction not just to the US but globally.

Recognition of the gold price warning signal manipulators who made this possible is growing.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:20 | 6484932 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

WHAT I SAID YOU MOOKS!

THE FERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE RATES SOON NO MATTER WHAT!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:52 | 6485013 McCormick No. 9
McCormick No. 9's picture

Pull it. Pull it! PULL IT! PULL IT!!!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:02 | 6485033 SSRI Junkie
SSRI Junkie's picture

turrerristss never seem to hit any of these bigwig powow locations where there is real bang for the buck

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 18:54 | 6485745 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I think this'll confuse the shit out of the algo's......

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:20 | 6484936 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

The gates open up with the first one...remember Greenspan's rate path:

Fed raises rates again
Greenspan & Co. boost short-term rates to 4.25% but signal that an end to rate hikes is in sight.
December 13, 2005: 6:12 PM EST
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com senior writer

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - The Federal Reserve raised the target for a key short-term interest rate Tuesday by a quarter of a percentage point. The rate hike was widely expected by investors and economists, as the economy continues to show signs of strength.

But the central bank also modified its closely watched policy statement, a move that many analysts believe is a sign that the Fed may finally be nearing an end to its campaign of boosting interest rates. Markets reacted positively to the news, but some cautioned that despite the change to the statement, the Fed may still need to raise rates several more times.

The Fed did keep the term "measured," a word it has used to describe its approach to monetary policy since its May 2004 meeting. But it got rid of the phrase "policy accommodation can be removed," language that Fed watchers have typically interpreted to mean that many more rate hikes were on the way.

Instead, the Fed said that "some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance" and added that "the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives."

The Fed has increased rates by a quarter of a point at its past 13 meetings, dating back to June 2004. The federal funds rate now stands at 4.25 percent, its highest level since March 2001. Banks use the federal funds rate to determine overnight lending rates, which affect how much consumers and businesses pay for various types of loans.

Hope had been building in the financial markets before Tuesday's meeting that the Fed would pause soon, since interest rates are approaching a so-called neutral level, a level that is supposed to keep the economy growing at a healthy pace without spurring a harmful pickup in inflation.

"I think there will be another quarter point hike or two. This is paving a way for a pause at some point early next year," said Tom Higgins, chief economist with Payden & Rygel, a money management firm based in Los Angeles. "This tightening cycle is long in the tooth."

To that end stocks, which were mixed before the announcement, moved higher following the Fed's decision. Bonds were trading slightly higher, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 4.53 percent. (Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.)

Will Ben keep hiking?

Tuesday's meeting is the second to last for Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, whose term ends in January. Ben Bernanke, a former Fed governor, will take over for Greenspan, and his first policy meeting as Fed chair will take place on March 28.

But one economist said that the market should not assume that Bernanke will pause at his first meeting, even with the change in the Fed's language.

"The stock market may be overreacting to the Fed's statement," said Michael Strauss, chief economist for Commonfund, a money management firm based in Wilton, Conn. "The Fed may go a little further. Rates are approaching neutrality, but the Fed recognized the vibrancy of the economy. It doesn't look like the Fed is done."

As such, the Fed indicated that inflation was something it was still keeping a close eye on but added that "core inflation has stayed relatively low in recent months, and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained." The Fed used the same language to describe inflation in its last statement in November.

The Fed also said that higher energy prices this year and the effects of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma did not appear to be having a major negative impact on economic growth. "Despite elevated energy prices and hurricane-related disruptions, the expansion in economic activity appears solid," the Fed said.

Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist with Lehman Brothers, said that the Fed probably has room to raise interest rates a few more times, since the economy has shown no significant signs of weakening despite some obstacles.

"It's a Reggie Bush economy, running around and leaping over all problems," said Harris, referring to the Heisman Trophy-winning USC running back known for his uncanny ability to escape would-be tacklers.

Harris added that it's worth noting that the Fed still kept "measured" in the statement. He believes this word might be removed when the Fed meets in January but said that even if that is the case, the market should really pay more attention to what the Fed does, not what it says.

"This is a baby step toward pausing," said Harris. "But the Fed keeps hiking. These are language changes. It's all talk. The action is quite clear. They are still hiking."

So how high could the Fed wind up going before it stops raising rates? Vincent Boberski, chief fixed income strategist with RBC Dain Rauscher, said that he expects the Fed to raise rates again in January and at Bernanke's first two meetings in March and May.

"The Fed is closing in on neutral but has further to go. Five percent is a reasonable level," said Boberski. "We'll get two hikes from Bernanke before pausing, and he'll want to get there pretty quickly."

Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist with Maxim Group, a New York-based institutional firm, also said he believes the Fed will probably raise rates at its next three meetings, but that if the economy is still humming along at a robust pace, it could keep raising rates even after that. The reason? The Fed said clearly that it's still worried about inflation.

"It's not one and done, two and we're through or three and we'll see," said Ritholtz. "There is inflation in the system and the worst thing a central banker can do is let inflation get out of hand. So if you look at the fed funds rate and what neutral is supposed to be, 5 to 5.5 percent is not unthinkable.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:06 | 6484901 phoolish
phoolish's picture

A bit extreme but I recognize the sentiment.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:09 | 6485016 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The gradual murder of millions of people and the soul of a cvilization will require executions, and lots of them.

Hanging, guillotine, firing squad, drawn and quartered.  Let the public and those who sought to follow the path of the immoral oppresors see them die for their crimes against humanity.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:39 | 6485257 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Robespierre's ghost?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 21:31 | 6486094 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

When even 'RemainCalm' says, "SHOOT HIM," we have definitely entered a new phase. Still: hanging, guillotines, etc. could be taking things a bit far.

I propose: fish hooks and Vaseline; light bulbs and Wesson oil; bamboo shoots and capsaicin; cattle prods and pliers; speculums and badgers; starving rats and peanut butter; cheese graters and salt; pineapples and lube...all these things and more, and an abundance of time for them to reflect on their mistakes.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:06 | 6485040 orez65
orez65's picture

FISCHER: Fu.king legalized criminal.
FISCHER: Fu.k you sh.t head
FISCHER: Get a real job you slime bucket
FISCHER: One million Angels can stand on the pin of a needle.
FISCHER: I'm from The Federal Reserve and I'm here to help you

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:04 | 6485170 Idaho potato head
Idaho potato head's picture

A-hole@J-hole

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:00 | 6485305 Inbetween is pain
Inbetween is pain's picture

Hyperbole at its worst. Hitler, through WWII, was responsible for the death of 60 million people. How many people has Fisher killed exactly? I'm sure Hitler would approve of your methods of silencing someone you don't like ,though.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:15 | 6485332 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

He matters in only that everything he says are lies, propaganda, and cover for his, and the rest of the banksters', thefts.

What he, and the rest, say is carefully prepared to foster a false message in the minds of the listeners. The trick is discerning what this message is, and deciphering the real message buried under it, without succumbing to the fake message.

One way to remember this is to recall that: "They lie about everything. Why would they lie about this?"

Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity..

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 00:30 | 6486462 Md4
Md4's picture

Yet, he added, "because monetary policy influences real activity with a substantial lag, we should not wait until inflation is back to 2% to begin tightening."

Unbelievable.

Never pushed a shopping cart down a grocery store aisle in his life, I'll bet...

m

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:49 | 6484848 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Most people would embrace 2% inflation, not the 6-8% we've seen for the last several years. Hard to read this pitiful and disgusting bullshit sometimes.

And fuck you Fischer.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:56 | 6484860 remain calm
remain calm's picture

2% is terrible. In 35 years half of your purchasing power is gone. In 70 years (average human life span) 75% of your wealth is taken from you. Zero percent inflation is the best. Don't buy their 2% BS they are FUCKING LIARS WHO WANT YOUR SAVINGS. DON'T BE STUPID.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:01 | 6484885 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Productivity and savings thieves.

 

"LABOR MARKET 'APPROACHING' MAX EMPLOYMENT OBJECTIVE"

Is this asshole serious??!  

Has he even heard of the Labor Participation Rate?

 

Ok... Whatever...     Sure.  

Fuck it: Let's have a party.  

Let's have 2% for Christmas and see what retail does!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:01 | 6484888 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Do I have to point out the sarc to you?

Any btw, King Doelarr has lost well over 90% of its purchasing power since 1913, so don't argue facts about the FED with me sunny boy. I'm a lot older than you are.

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:08 | 6485048 Moustache Rides
Moustache Rides's picture

Without the FED loaning us debt-based money the entire perpetual growth economic model wouldn't exist.  We wouldn't need this so-called "essential" inflation rate.  Ask someone in business why we have to have perpetual growth.  The dumbfounded deer-in-the-headlights expression on their face is priceless.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:28 | 6485357 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

"2% is terrible. In 35 years half of your purchasing power is gone. In 70 years (average human life span) 75% of your wealth is taken from you. Zero percent inflation is the best. Don't buy their 2% BS they are FUCKING LIARS WHO WANT YOUR SAVINGS. DON'T BE STUPID."

It is actually worse than that, as the average increase in productivity of most unfettered economies is about 3%--Prices would actually fall about 3% a year in an unfettered economy.

That means that the banksters and their violence puppets, government, steal all the productivity gains of an economy, and society, first. Higher levels of "printing" and theft then show up as price increases, after the theft of the productivity gains.

The theft and consumption of an economy's productivity gains by the banksters, and cronies, limits the ability for that economy to invest in expanding production inline with population growth. As a result, such a victimized economy, and society, is slowly impoverished.

This impoverishment of an economy, and society, can be seen quite clearly within the Zionist colonized American country the last 100 plus years.

Fraudulent-reserve banking is theft and tyranny, and must be guillotined.

Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity..

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:00 | 6485446 daveO
daveO's picture

+100 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:51 | 6485561 ronin12
ronin12's picture

+1000

It's nice to see that somebody else "gets it". 99.9% of the population think inflation is "normal" or worse, necessary.

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 18:17 | 6485630 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

100 plus years of propaganda and indoctrination in the indoctrination centers, schools, has lulled the American people to eat the manna while ignoring the ever increasing surroundment of fences.

Soon the gate will be installed, and then...

Zion is a scheme, not an ethnicity..

 

Don't eat the manna, don't drink the Kool-Aid, and the fences are to keep you in until slaughter.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 20:13 | 6485930 August
August's picture

Yep.  A yearly tax burden of somewhere between 20 and 60%, topped off by 75% of whatever life savings might be accumulated.

A serf was more free.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:59 | 6484856 thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

Another schizophrenic Fed speech.

Why can't they just do it, raise them until it's noticeable,  say 2 percent, obviously for all, because they are impotent.

You can't  get .2 out of these bozos.

Maybe someone should tell the Fed Viagra is taken orally,  and not shot up the ass!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:33 | 6485109 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

Maybe someone should tell the Fed Viagra is taken orally,  and not shot up the ass!

Tell that to the guy on the bottom...

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:39 | 6485256 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

Go 'head Stanley. Raise dem rates, i dare you. No i double dog dare you.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:43 | 6484821 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

wait they will until the end of the FED

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:47 | 6484841 aliki
aliki's picture

2%?!?!?!

lol

the stock market has a simultaneous heart attack/brain aneurysm when they even float a 25 bp increase

has this man been drug tested?

yellen might have him thrown out his private jet enroute back to his castle

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:46 | 6485006 Chandos
Chandos's picture

«yellen might have him thrown out his private jet enroute back to his castle»

 

They have castles in Tel Aviv now?...

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:23 | 6485078 michelp
michelp's picture

'Fed vice chairman Stanley Fischer'

Another dual-citizen (Israel) traitor.

NO ONE in a public position of command should ever be a dual-citizen.

It is akin to treason.

m.


Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:48 | 6484844 DontWorry
DontWorry's picture

Don't worry, our monetary officials are the in complete control of the economic recovery.  By the skillful control of monetary tools they will continue the steady economic expansion with their dual mandates of price stability and full employment.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:49 | 6484845 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Go ahead Stan let'er rip!...

Slap that "1/4 point" band-aid on the post mortem patient that you effectively put to death 4 years ago!!!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:53 | 6484851 GRDguy
GRDguy's picture

Jackson Hole is such a beautiful place; it's sad to see such ugly personalities there. Thank god it's only a short time.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d0/Barns_grand_tetons.jpg

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:52 | 6484857 e1618978
e1618978's picture

If you look at the billion price index, 2015 has had higher inflation than any time since 2008.  The index jumped from less than 108 on Jan 16th to almost 110 on May 26th.  Six points per year on that index amounts to about 5.5% inflation.

http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/

 

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:03 | 6484895 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Thanks. Thats what I thought.

JustObserving posted the Chapwood Index numbers which are even higher than that.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:55 | 6484865 slimycorporated...
slimycorporatedickhead's picture

Either they have no idea what they are doing and have destroyed the economy with their own negligence, or they totally know what they are doing and are criminals... ask yourself which is more likely

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:56 | 6484868 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They don't even hide the fact that they are the markets' bitch anymore.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:56 | 6484870 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

Den of thieves

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:56 | 6484871 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.barrons.com/articles/quantitative-easing-redux-1440826605

Quantitative Easing Redux?

Fed officials always try to disconnect the bank’s actions from stock-market gyrations, but history doesn’t support that indifference.

By Vito J. Racanelli

August 29, 2015

If a “rate hike” is Wall Street’s obsession this year, the effective opposite, “quantitative easing,” gets much less mention after three mammoth rounds of central-bank asset buying, or quantitative easing, in the past few years. But what’s that we hear? Another thing the Fed’s Dudley said last Wednesday was, “I’m a long way from quantitative easing. The U.S. economy is performing quite well.”

Fed officials always try to disconnect the bank’s actions from stock-market gyrations, but history doesn’t support that indifference. “It will take less than a 20% decline in U.S. stock prices for the Fed to begin discussing a new round of quantitative easing,” says Darren Pollock, a portfolio manager with Cheviot Value Management.

On several occasions in recent years, a Fed official has stepped in with easing statements following market routs. The Fed knows it can’t let the stock market fall without backpedaling on its tough monetary talk, Pollock says. It must try to keep stock prices from plummeting and pulling down consumer confidence, which could affect the economy.

Stocks recovered big-time last week, but remain vulnerable. Should the market fall some more, Pollock says, “It may force the Fed to do a U-turn and speak of a willingness to provide more stimulus—like QE.”

The Fed won’t let all the effort and money invested in propping up the economy since 2008 go to waste. It won’t stand at the plate and strike out looking. The Yellen put lives.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:56 | 6484872 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

Did he explain how his constipation is going to impact the easing?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:01 | 6484875 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

What gets me is there is 3-5% inflation in housing costs (CPI, NAR, Case Shill)....yet the Latest GDP had PCE housing go from the highest portion of PCE to suddenly negative in the revision. So folks you should have gotten a refund last Q on your rent or mortgage according to the GDP.
There is some serious butt fuckery going on with numbers being released....

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:58 | 6484877 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

SMELLS LIKE A BOTTOM

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:03 | 6484893 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

You know he's gonna drink the whole bottle and then eat her ass.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:25 | 6484954 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

bottoms are meant to be seen and not smelled

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:52 | 6485426 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Unless they're sitting on your face.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 19:43 | 6485866 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Sorry Billy, you have the wrong ass.  It should be Yellen's if Cramer is sniffing it.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:58 | 6484880 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  This is like shadow puppet theatre, and the man behind the curtain is just waiting to fire up the printing press.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 12:58 | 6484881 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

So he sees $200 oil on the horizon?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:02 | 6484892 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

This is what I hear when a central banker speaks: BLALALALALALALALAhhhh

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:43 | 6485001 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

I don't hear anything but my own vomiting when they speak.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:25 | 6485082 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

I wouldn't listen or read what these thieving market manipulators spew. It saves time and avoids an upset stomach. But I love the ZH comments!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:05 | 6484898 phoolish
phoolish's picture

Does normalizing mean we get 5.25% savings accounts again?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:11 | 6484912 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Sure does!  -As long as you maintain a savings account balance of $500,000.00 or more.

...&, ah... a 16% 30yr. mortgage IF you have stellar credit aaannd maintain a savings account balance of $500,000.00 or more..

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:38 | 6485118 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

If the 30 year was at 16%, I'd have enough money to put 50% down on my desired home and could then turn around and pay it off in less than 10 years (assuming I'd be making less because of the stronger dollar).  Hell of a better deal than we're getting now...

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:22 | 6485346 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

I'll take 16% mortgage as long as the house is say less that $25,000.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:12 | 6484916 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Shit No!

Savers are their enemies, to be taken out and shot.

The un-fed is a gang of nefarious mother fuckers!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:14 | 6484923 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Only if you are a bankster.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:24 | 6484950 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

yeah except the interest goes into a locked retirement account

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:07 | 6484904 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

"the direction of financial markets over the next two weeks would help determine whether the Fed raises rates next month."

So the markets will be soft for the next two weeks. The Fed can then say; 'we were going to raise rates but it's clear now is not the time'. Fed will then hint there may be a QE4 coming and the party will start all over again. New stock market highs!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:42 | 6484999 rejected
rejected's picture

Markets?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:09 | 6484910 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

Another week, another fed member, another meaningless statement. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:14 | 6484922 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Can we drone in a few ISIS operatives?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:17 | 6484927 Russian Men
Russian Men's picture

Hawkish or dovish?

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:18 | 6484930 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Droneish

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:23 | 6484946 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Hookaish. Bonga Bonga

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:21 | 6484941 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

once before Greenspan raised rates and increased liquidity, using the REPO window. QE is just the old monetary tools on steroids, they could go back to those tools, instead of taking the punch bowl away you fill it with 3.2% beer. short of that they have no choice except to restrict credit, which there is way too much of it anyway, and people who cant afford it are paying usurious prices. hard to see how controlling credit at this point would hurt anything. loan sharking and usury are now wall street business models. just watch the ads on late night TV. it will take a long time before the public backlash arrives. opening a payday loan shop creates jobs and builds the small business profile in your community (SNARK!!) i would open one next door to the new government marijuana dispensary, a sure money maker.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:28 | 6484963 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

A couple of tenths of a point are hardly going to affect credit card balances that are already 5% or 15% nor payday loans that are already 20% to 200%, so wtf.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:07 | 6485174 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

exactly, thats why i say they have to restrict credit but i am not sure how they can do it if at all

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:27 | 6485354 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

I thought credit generally is tougher across the board than in 2008, even mortgages are still somewhat tougher.  Credit cards and payday loans maybe not so much.  But business loans are still much tougher - aren't they?  Student loans is another separate topic.

The whole credit culture is broken, the supposed mathematics behind it are WRONG, the Wall Street rocket scientists are mostly frauds, the smart ones were fired or left, only those who support greed and theft via socialized losses are kept.

I'm not sure that consumer credit or even direct business loans matter at all, compared to the mountain of bogus derivatives built on top of them.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:11 | 6485188 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

 I would not expect that .25 increase in margin is going to scare any "traders" away from the equity markets.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:25 | 6484953 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Wow. So many contradictions in that speech. Too many to count. Almost as many contradictions that one dual citizen Tribe member could come up with.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:32 | 6484978 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

You have to get the yiddish version to get at the truth.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:54 | 6485286 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

I prefer the pig latin version.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:47 | 6485274 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  You've been on the roll lately Seasmoke.

  Nice work, and I couldn't agree moar.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:26 | 6484955 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

>"With inflation low, we can probably remove
>accommodation at a gradual pace,"

There ya go.  Now, add that you *should* remove the "accomodation", you should have stopped accomodating those banksters five years ago now.*

*except that you are banksters, yeah we know already.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:26 | 6484957 ChargingHandle
ChargingHandle's picture

Shut your pie hole. You manipulate the market enough with your instruments. We don't need your mouth swaying sentiment for further market direction also. Criminal. Show us your positions and let's see if I am wrong.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:48 | 6484958 Iudaea Delenda Est
Iudaea Delenda Est's picture

"“If Americans were ever polled on it—and they never are—the majority who now object to increasing aid to Israel would also likely object to quasi-governmental and governmental positions being staffed by people who—by citizenship or sheer strength of identity politics—are primarily occupied with advancing Israeli interests rather than those of the United States. It is obvious that the real reason AIPAC and its economic luminaries such as Fischer never substantiate any of the advertised benefits the U.S.-Israel “special relationship” delivers to America in return for all of the costs is simple—there simply aren’t any. As greater numbers of Americans become aware that the entire “special relationship” framework is sustained by nothing more than Israel lobby campaign-finance and propaganda networks, the harder the lobby will have to work… In the very short term, Americans can only fight such undue Israel lobby influence by again—like during the drive to attack Syria—staging a mass action to demand their senators reject Stanley Fischer’s nomination,” Grant Smith, IRMEP"

AIPAC's Fed Candidate Stanley Fischer on a Warpath against Iran
Dual-citizen nominee's lifetime benefit to Israel comes at a heavy cost to America
http://irmep.org/fischer_aipac.htm

Stanley Fischer: AIPAC’s Federal Reserve Vice Chairman
http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/stanley-fischer-aipacs-federal-reserve-v...

_______________
OT - and this is a bit long, but it is *excellent*
It should be read by the people who claim that it is "hate" to criticize organized Zionist groups and wildly disproportionate Jewish power and influence.

Zionism in Britain: a Neglected Chronicle
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/08/28/zionism-in-britain-a-neglected-ch...

There are roughly 300k Jews in Britain which has a total population of about 64,511,000

THAT IS 0.47% OF THE POPULATION

Jews are 8 times over-represented in UK parliament
http://mycatbirdseat.com/2010/05/jews-are-8-times-over-represented-in-uk...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Jews
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom#Religion

http://mycatbirdseat.com/2013/06/camerons-torah-government/
https://wikispooks.com/wiki/Labour_Friends_of_Israel

This leaves aside disproportionate media influence, which is wildly disproportionate.

Hence an "Anglo-Zionist" empire running amock.

Anyone who claims it is "hate" to discuss this wildly disproportionate influence of Jews, presumably largely Zionist {if not necessarily mostly} in the US, UK, France and elsewhere

is lying, stupid, a Zio shill, or some combination thereof.

It is absolutely foolish, myopic and dangerous to NOT discuss this influence.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:54 | 6485148 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

AIPAC is the strongest most powerful and dangerous lobby in Wash DC, hands down.

Cue the trolls who will call me an anti Semite for stating that fact.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:53 | 6485284 Inbetween is pain
Inbetween is pain's picture

Could it be that Jews are smarter than the rest of us? Representing just 0.2% of the population, they were awarded nearly 25% of the Nobel Prizes during the last 100 years. Or perhaps that's a Zio-Swede plot.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:11 | 6485329 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Actual studies have shown that their IQ is lower on average. Conniving; probably highest in the world.

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:21 | 6485490 daveO
daveO's picture

Superior team work developed since ancient times. Counterfeit buys many things including politicians and Nobel prizes.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usury

Deuteronomy 23

19Thou shalt not lend upon usury to thy brother; usury of money, usury of victuals, usury of any thing that is lent upon usury: 20Unto a stranger thou mayest lend upon usury; but unto thy brother thou shalt not lend upon usury: that the LORD thy God may bless thee in all that thou settest thine hand to in the land whither thou goest to possess it.


Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:29 | 6485506 Inbetween is pain
Inbetween is pain's picture

Outnumbered 500 to 1, hated by everybody, in every era, accused of every crime, and yet they've still flourished. Christians must be really stupid to let 14 million Jews run a world containing 7.3 billion people.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 06:57 | 6486740 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Just like cockroaches. But people are waking up to their crimes and lies. The holohoax, etc.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:40 | 6485530 Inbetween is pain
Inbetween is pain's picture

If you're such a Bible scholar then you must also realize that they are God's chosen people. So just acccept your fate and let them run the world.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 14:53 | 6487744 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

They're NOT God's chosen people.

God made a conditional promise, they broke all the conditions.

They rejected God, they rejected His Son, and God rejected them as a nation.

https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Galatians+3

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:24 | 6485495 Inbetween is pain
Inbetween is pain's picture

Jews are stupid: they invented Jeans, Lipstick, the Ballpoint Pen, Contraceptives, Instant Coffee, Television Remote Control, Traffic Lights, Scotchguard, the Flexistraw and the atomic bomb, the H bomb, the Long Playing Record, Woodstock, Sound Movies, Videotape, Color Television, Instant Photography, Holography, Google, the Wire Transmission Facsimilie (FAX) , the Microphone, the Gramophone, the Microprocessing Chip, Optical Fiber Cable, Laser, to name just a few.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 06:56 | 6486738 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Spare us the bs. Most co-opted from the work of white europeans.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:17 | 6485339 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

'THE JEWS ARE THE MOST PROLIFIC LIARS IN THE WORLD. THEY RUIN EVERY INDIVIDUAL OR COUNTRY THEY WANT TO, FIRST WITH DEFAMATION AND FALSE ACCUSATIONS… THEN WITH CIVIL WAR, REVOLUTION, AND WAR. '

http://www.germanvictims.com/

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:37 | 6485523 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you should thank Fidel Castro for having let you grow a brain.

If the CIA had won on your birthday, I'd hate to think what you could have become.

You might have become a pro semite; not that I hate any race, its just that I hate those who bite without reason. A bite a day makes another semite moar palestinian meat for a kosher bbq cooked by his mirror opposite.

When one semite bites another semite's ass cos its not a true kosher ass, you wonder why beards are  for weirds and cuban cigars are for dudes who play pool in dark places we call boudoirs with an oval overtone.

Some do it in the pool, others play pool sharks in the dark.

You were cut out to be a piglet on a day when the dock of the bay went porkypined. 

Otis died 4 years after Aldous Huxley.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:26 | 6484959 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

Jackson Hole. Every time I see that phrase, I think if sphincter muscles.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:20 | 6485212 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Well we all know thay are cornholing each other - or young studs brought into please them. God, can you imagine how much viagra those cornballs will consume? 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:22 | 6485343 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Annal Point in Scotland does that to me as well.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:30 | 6485365 FredFlintstone
FredFlintstone's picture

Frasiers Bottom, WV

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 01:45 | 6486529 Rigger
Rigger's picture

Cockburn, Perth, Western Australia... I win.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:26 | 6484961 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

Proverbs 16:18

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:37 | 6484992 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture
  • FISCHER: ECON SLACK IS ONE REASON CORE INFL HAS BEEN LOW

Mr. Fischer doesn't buy his own groceries, apparently. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:10 | 6485326 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

He's israeli so we buy them.

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:46 | 6485005 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

maggot

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 13:57 | 6485025 Tyrone Shoelaces
Tyrone Shoelaces's picture

25BP jump and the world ends,  LOL

 

We are so screwed.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:06 | 6485042 drewbby
drewbby's picture

If they don't raise rates, the market will raise rates for them. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 14:59 | 6485161 madbraz
madbraz's picture

China selling treasuries = BS

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:15 | 6485201 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

call it a swap, bonds for dollars, they cant exactly prop up their own stock market using US treasury paper, they need something more tangible. i could be yellen et al, did the china stock market buying for them, that this was a massive expansion of QE, (are they forbidden from buying foreign stocks no not according to charter, but doing it without making it public) so they may be holding the marker on the shanghai exchange for the government in bejing in exchange for a trillion in US paper, that represents a massive (1T) expansion in our money supply, we print carry the money to china buy stocks, keep stocks on our balance sheet and DO NOT repatriot the bonds, but if i miss my guess they will soon announce a balance sheet downsizing.or the stocks remain on Chinas balance sheet but we really own them, wink wink.

the shanghai ralllies the marker is torn up, and we keep the bonds, which we hold a bond fire or something.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:26 | 6485229 Duc888
Duc888's picture

Hey asshole, when's the last time you bought some food?

2% inflation.

Yea.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:44 | 6485262 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hey Fischer ! Sorry to remind you but Q tightening has already started in China !

The question is : As THEY have jumped the gun WHAT are you going to DO?

Two for the same tightening ?
That MAY be ONE TOO MANY !

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:49 | 6485276 PlayMoney
PlayMoney's picture

How long can they keep up "we're just about to raise rates" before the talking heads realize they are full of shit. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:57 | 6485292 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

satan's scumbags (ss).

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:09 | 6485321 AC_Doctor
AC_Doctor's picture

Someone's gotta play the "good" joo!

 

 

 

Lots of ropes for lots of folks!!!

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 14:44 | 6487725 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

You want a good jew?

Better call the William Morris Agency.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:46 | 6485400 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

hhahahahahahahahahahaha

Stan Fischer's speech sounded to me like Captain James T. Kirk's orders to his crew when they depart in pursuit of the evil Nulanders to the Obama Wormhole (named for the beloved 44th president in the 21st century).

Except Captain Kirk's orders sound much more probable than what the Vice Chairman had to say. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:01 | 6485447 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

" ... Freeport McMoRan announced production cuts company-wide, including a 50 percent cut in production at the company’s Tyrone mine."

 

 

http://www.scdailypress.com/site/2015/08/28/breaking-freeport-mcmoran-to...

 

Smells Bullish to me. 'Hope and change you can beleive in!'

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:33 | 6485515 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

No matter what the CRIMINALS, decide to do, no amount of lipstick will help this PIG!

 

keep planning for the worse

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 18:19 | 6485633 StagStopa
StagStopa's picture

A dozen eggs here in western USA went from 99c to $3.50 in a week. Our walmart, a shithole, yes, was totally bare shelved for several days. Been seeing a lot of bare shelves in the last year. No inflation\s

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 20:09 | 6485922 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Avian flu wiped out a lot of chickens in the Midwest this spring. I am surprised you still had 99 cent eggs. It's also possible your western chicken farmers just got their water bill too!

Either one of those - or else Warren Buffett is laying eggs!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 20:05 | 6485918 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Don't underestimate China's reverse QE. If markets stay troubled, they could sell quite a bit in a short period of time. Don't think that their yuan easing was unrelated either. What would normally be small moves have become problematic when 50-to-1 leverage is applied.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 22:40 | 6486250 besnook
besnook's picture

no one seems to get the point.zirp was about saving the banks, not you. the banks are saved so now you have to pay again regardless of what the economy does.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 23:09 | 6486314 FedFunnyMoney
FedFunnyMoney's picture

Remind me again why we have the former head of the Bank of Israel as Federal Reserve vice chairman? Another Zionist in a high place is not a good thing.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 00:29 | 6486455 honestann
honestann's picture

These cretins are such abject liars.  He knows inflation has been 8% to 12% for the past several years, and has reduced the effective pay of workers enormously.

Plus GDP, unemployment and other numbers are totally bogus.  Which makes ALL their analysis and comments absolute nonsense and BS.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 05:06 | 6486663 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

read through the whole thing, seems to me to say:

 

All the disinflationary factors are transitory, we are still on track for a raise eventually; recent events have thrown a jam into things, but those factors are temporary, we can't put off a raise forever.

though sep might be looking unlikely, they still need to raise at some time, their credibilty is on the line.

They'll probably wing it from now on, when and if a window appears, they'll jump in and raise it. You've been warned.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 07:13 | 6486756 unklemunky
unklemunky's picture

Uh, is China not in fact raising rates for us? As they dump treasuries in massive amounts, this places downward pressure on price thus inversely increasing the yield. The more they dump, the higher the yield goes. This is the problem the Fed is dealing with. The stock market is one thing, but increasing the rate owed on our massive debt is another. As fear enters the markets and money leaves the table, liquidity dries up and what does the fed have left to move the market. It appears as though Chna has more control over our monetary policy than the fed does. They are pumping up our yields, devaluing their currency while strengthening the dollar and this is impacting markets worldwide as Europe looks to take advantage of this as well. The bankers are the real bastards here.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 07:15 | 6486759 silverer
silverer's picture
"Fed Should Not Wait Until 2% Inflation To Begin Tightening"

 

When you go to www.chapwoodindex.com, this statement seems ridiculous right from the start.  It's a case of "figures don't lie, but liars figure".

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 10:16 | 6486991 Semi-employed W...
Semi-employed White Guy's picture

With the fed in their town,  expect to see a spike in porn, illegal immigration,  homosexuality and usury in Jackson Hole.  It's what they do. Hey, that could make a great Geico commercial!

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