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Lagarde: "China's Slowdown Was Predictable, Predicted"... Yes, By Everyone Except The IMF

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In what may be the funniest bit of economic humor uttered today, funnier even than the deep pontifications at Jackson Hole (where moments ago Stanley Fischer admitted that "research is needed for a better inflation indicator" which means that just months after double seasonally adjusted GDP, here comes double seasonally adjusted inflation), in an interview with Swiss newspaper Le Temps (in which among other things the fake-bronzed IMF head finally folded and said a mere debt maturity extension for Greece should suffice, ending its calls for a major debt haircut), took some time to discuss China.

This is what she said.

Turning to China, Lagarde said she expected the country's economic growth rate to remain close to previous estimates even if some sort of slowdown was inevitable after its rapid expansion.

 

China devalued its yuan currency this month after exports tumbled in July, spooking global markets worried that a main driver of growth was running out of steam.

 

"We expect that China will have a growth rate of 6.8 percent. It may be a little less." The IMF did not believe growth would fall to 4 or 4.5 percent, as some foresaw.

Actually, some - such as Evercore ISI - currently foresee China's GDP to be negative, at about -1.1%.

 

But the funniest part was this: "The slowdown was predictable, predicted, unavoidable," Lagarde was quoted as saying."

Well, yes, here is China's Caijing quoting Zero Hedge some time in 2012, explaining that China has "the world's largest credit bubble." Incidentally, it was back in 2012 that we warned "that all platitudes of the Richard Koos aside and Paul Krugmans, who demand ever more debt, the developed world is at its debt capacity."

Three years later McKinsey admitted just that in one the most "shocking" pieces of economic analysis released in years, showing that global debt had risen by $57 trillion to $200 trillion since the first great financial crisis, which incidentally is why global growth is no longer possible in a world in which only incremental debt creation fuelled growth for decades.

 

But going back to Lagarde's sstatement that China's "slowdown was predictable, predicted", we just want to add that - yes, it was... by everyone but the IMF.

Here is the history of the IMF's Chinese GDP growth forecasts taken straight from its World Economic Outlook quarterly pieces. The graph, also known in Excel as "the dying hockeystick" needs no explanation.

 

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Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:51 | 6485280 trader1
trader1's picture

September 7, 17, & 27

bad juju

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:01 | 6485310 Dazman
Dazman's picture

The IMF couldn't predict the direction in which a fart would blow in the wind, even if they knew the direction in which the wind is blowing.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:14 | 6485478 trader1
trader1's picture

you didn't get the joke.

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:54 | 6485282 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The IMf keeps 2 sets of books.

You're reading from the book for dummies.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:52 | 6485283 bfellow
bfellow's picture

For all you Simpsons fans out there, reminds me of Homer and Marge at the psych office when Marge had a fear of flying. The shrink said that her cost was on a sliding scale and she could help for $60 an hour, to which Homer replied, "Keep sliding..."

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:56 | 6485291 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

Lagarde reminds me more of "I Am Cait" for some reason.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:52 | 6485424 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Rod of Maude

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 18:50 | 6485735 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I  trust Jenner more....

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:58 | 6485297 Tyrone Shoelaces
Tyrone Shoelaces's picture

So now a deflationary collapse is known as a 'slowdown' ?

LMAO

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 06:54 | 6486735 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

Just a flesh wound for the black knight

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 15:59 | 6485299 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Lagarde...Just another useless non-income tax paying douche bag, that bloviates horseshit and really thinks she sounds smart.

A female Lurch Kerry with all of his looks!

Bitch.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:41 | 6485535 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

You think she looks ugly now? 

Just imagine what she looks like in the photos her puppet-masters have on her. 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 18:21 | 6485645 trader1
trader1's picture

she doesn't want to get DSK'd.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 19:57 | 6485903 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Didn't somebody on ZH once call her Leatherface?  Wasn't me...just saying.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 21:19 | 6486059 Implied Violins
Implied Violins's picture

Bitch?

More like SlutWhoreCUNTBITCH

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:00 | 6485302 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yeah, whatever, Leather Lady Lagarde is still pulling down a fat salary and luxury living on the backs of regular people.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 23:14 | 6489078 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

LLL3 pays no taxes on her income since IMF is a UN Mission.

 

 

 

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:02 | 6485309 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  In all honesty, the "orange woman" has been adamantly against the fed. lifting rates.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:03 | 6485311 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Hahaha! Just like Lady Lagarde backtracked on Greek Bail out!

"We have to reduce debt or the deal is off!"

Since when has the US financial hitman developed a second instinct that contradicts its BASIC INStiNCt?

Has it developed a conscience of being a faceless, soulless, economic HITMAN?

Its amazing how a hitman can eventually LEARN how to count!

I mean count, not C*NT !

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:03 | 6485314 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

So still 7% ish...no worries then Ms Lagarde. We do wonder about the currency changes though.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:47 | 6485401 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

Schiff and Celente have it right.  The "consumer" ain't consumin' cause they're assed out, up to their eyeballz in debt.  Consumers don't Consume and China inc is outta bizz.

 

 

 

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 00:53 | 6486481 Md4
Md4's picture

Precisely.

m

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:53 | 6485433 Laughinggrizzley
Laughinggrizzley's picture

Christopher Lagarde and the IMF wouldn't know a right economic forecast if it bit it on it's ass!

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 16:54 | 6485435 Raul44
Raul44's picture

Title say it all. FY Lagarde, dont play smart when you are clearly NOT.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 17:44 | 6485544 novictim
novictim's picture

Two things: 

1) The IMF accepted the lies about Chinese economic data as presented by the PBOC.  That is there job. Until a economy goes into publicly broadcast meltdown (Greece), it would be impolitic to tell a sovereign state that it is lying and cooking the books.

 

2) The IMF is a cheerleader for economic growth so don't expect doom and gloom forecasts from them even when they know of the pending disaster.  They leave that up to the Market to sort out.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 19:11 | 6485786 q99x2
q99x2's picture

The IMF is one of the organizations of the NWO. They lie on purpose.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 10:12 | 6486980 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

When it get's bad enuf, you have to lie.

Wouldn't want to start a panic and spook the markets.

Sat, 08/29/2015 - 19:31 | 6485839 Steve556
Steve556's picture

 

 

The only fact we know on China's GDP   is this....  NONE of the detractors have any proof it is not true. 

 

 

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 03:42 | 6486603 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

Y'all are being far too harsh. After all... they managed to forecast 2012 exactly right, from 2014 onwards.

Sun, 08/30/2015 - 04:42 | 6486649 AbbeBrel
AbbeBrel's picture

Well now, things are IMPROVING. The P&F chart target for Doctor Copper has moved UP!! From $1 to $1.5 (currently $2 and change).

That is a good deal.

The bad news is that the Flag formed in early 2015 was indeed a Big Bad Bear flag. Oopsie.

And certain markets are doing an efficient job of maximizing pain - to wit:

Flash back to ZH Feb:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-21/citi-warns-dancing-music-and-co...

"Truth be told, we almost hope those forecasts are proven wrong. They imply a widening gap between valuations and traditional fundamental relationships. They imply a dearth of yields and spreads that will almost invariably push more and more investors into positions they would ultimately rather not take. But if the old adage that markets move in the direction that causes the most pain to the largest number of people is anything to go by, then we suspect that this is what will happen. Depressingly, our instinct is that those new forecasts are more likely too conservative than too aggressive. Longer-term, sweet dreams really aren't made of this."

- Citigroup Strategist Hans Lorenzen, February 20, 2015

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