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Dow Futures Plunge 240 Points As Oil Drops 4% Ahead Of China PMI

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when you thought it was safe to listen to the stability-preaching talking heads, crude futures are sliding and US equity futures are tumbling as Asia opens. Worse still XIV (VIX inverse ETF) has tumbled to fresh lows with a 24 handle in the after-hours market, suggesting more downside for stocks. With all eyes on China PMIs - though, there is little need for a weak PMI to be present for China to unleash moar measures, and a strong PMI will be scoffed at - it seems, the end-of-month rip-fest is fading fast...

 

Oil is sliding back..

As Goldman explains,

within the context of the global oil market balance, rising OPEC and elevated non-OPEC ex. US production leave the global oil market still oversupplied with a decline in US production in 2016 increasingly likely to halt the build in inventories. For example, OPEC production rose by 485 kb/d between April and June as US production declined by 316 kb/d.

 

As a result, we reiterate our view that oil prices have to remain low, with our near-term WTI forecast of $45/bbl, to rebalance the oil market by late 2016

but US equity futures are tumbling... back to Thursday JPM crash levels...

 

Front-month VIX futures surge back to Monday's highs...

 

As XIV tumbles... well below the scene of Friday's crime...

 

And VXX nears Monday's flash-crash highs...

 

For if we learned one thing last week, it is the suddenly-illiquid ETF tail wagging the dog underlying assets that creates the big air pockets in today's markets.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:25 | 6492811 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

OH NO!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:44 | 6492883 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

Someone needs to tell Langley to

 

STOP DETONATING MULTI-KILOTON BOMBS IN CHINA

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:51 | 6492912 lordylord2
lordylord2's picture

Shit guys.  Gold and silver is SOLD OUT. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:54 | 6492927 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

shhhhhh........

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:05 | 6492971 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Will all those Prius owners, who paid a huge premium for those noisy cars please raise yoru hand.

 

With your other hand reach down and feel your balls to see if they're still there since some car dealers kicked them pretty hard.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:13 | 6493005 Automatic Choke
Automatic Choke's picture

"oil is sliding back"...

...damn that oil, it is too slippery.

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:27 | 6493081 worbsid
worbsid's picture

Pretty much:  JM Bullion won't have 2015 Silver Eagles till Sept 10th.  They have some of the older eagles and the premium is outta sight.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 23:33 | 6493677 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

My silver-guy says 5 to 12 weeks to get an order of 100 Oz bars down to 1 Oz bars/rounds. Weird

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 08:46 | 6494550 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer Says She's Expecting Twin Girls

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/yahoo-s-chief-marissa-...

Oops, thought I pulled out in time...

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:52 | 6492917 Heffer
Heffer's picture

 

Oh no
I don't believe it
You say that you think you know
The meaning of love
You say love is all we need
You say
With your love you can change
All of the hate
All of the fools
I think you're probably
Out to lunch

Oh no
I don't believe it
You say that you think you know
The meaning of love
Do you really think it can be told?
You say that you really know
I think
You should check it again
How can you say
What you believe
Will be the key to a
World of love?

All your love
Will it save me?
All your love
Will it save the world
From what you can't understand?
Oh no
I don't believe it

What?
Well!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:32 | 6493406 Sanity Bear
Sanity Bear's picture

Shame on anyone who would downvote Zappa lyrics!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:27 | 6492815 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Algos are just ripping through stops, up and down.

Fuckers.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:37 | 6493998 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

Stops are for pussies.

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 08:47 | 6494555 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Are you "sponge worthy"?

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:27 | 6492817 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Clearly, Meng needs to arrest and beat moar people.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:58 | 6492943 Rodent Free Corps
Rodent Free Corps's picture

I wonder if there is any poetic thingy in that Meng was the enemy of Flash.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:27 | 6492819 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

China PMI will beat. They have to keep spirits up for the festivities.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:33 | 6492836 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

DONT PANIC!!! it will tumble up shortly....psssssst where is the ppt?

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:33 | 6492837 fed_depression
fed_depression's picture

Oil moving this much in one week shows fragility and something has finally broken. The roaring 20's are over.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:41 | 6492868 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Fra-jeeel-lay, thats French! ;-)

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:57 | 6492937 Shpedly
Shpedly's picture

I loved that damn lamp!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:15 | 6492941 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

Nmewn,

It's Eye-talian, but who cares. Cheers.

 

Edit: Completely of topic, but does anyone have any land in central Texas with some Osage Orange growing? You might refer to it as Hedge, Hedge Apple, or Bois d'Arc. If so, I would be willing to trade some gun work, FRN, or some dried staves to you for a tree, if it is straight grained, and fairly clear, of a diameter around 15"-20" or larger. It is amazing bow wood.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:46 | 6493181 Rodent Free Corps
Rodent Free Corps's picture

I'm in central Texas. I'll see what I can find. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:03 | 6493265 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

Thanks,

I'm looking for sections about 7' long, straight grain (look at the bark, if it runs straight up, the grain is straight). You can reach me at flemingjamess@hotmail.com just message Osage, or ZH or some such.

Let me know what you would like to barter for.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:09 | 6493295 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

There's a lot of Osage orange in my neck of the woods (South Central PA), but it rarely gets more than 10-12" in diameter here.

It's great bow wood regardless, and 2 hours north of here which I travel to several times a year, there's arrowood bushes everywhere.

Plenty for the primitive hunter, fisher and trapper here.

Let me know if you're interested, near infinite supply.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:26 | 6493355 countryboy42
countryboy42's picture

The shipping might be worse than margins on silver right now, but I thank you for the offer. If you find yourself in need of a road trip down south, let me know.

Edit: Now that I think about it, I may have to make a road trip. The shorter growing season, and colder winter may produce a tighter growth ring.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:35 | 6492849 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

I've got a baaaad feeling about this.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:39 | 6492864 gmak
gmak's picture

... only because the japanese K-Hen probably couldn't get to work due to the anti-war protests in that country. Europe will open with a vengeance at 3AM NYT, as always and pull the e-minis back up some. same old same old.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:43 | 6492879 Redneck Hippy
Redneck Hippy's picture

Time for an emergency dollar/yen ramp.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 05:43 | 6494254 gmak
gmak's picture

I guess BoJ and ECB had their hands full and couldn't answer the FED-phone. Oh well. plunges for everyone. Keep feedig my vol, thank you very much.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:42 | 6492873 LostWages
LostWages's picture

It promises to be a September to remember.  Happy Shemitah and Blood Moons for all.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:47 | 6492894 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Yes, Happy Smegma.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:04 | 6493271 ShakaZulu
ShakaZulu's picture

Happy Festivus!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 23:38 | 6492874 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Well, make that DOW futures down 115 now.

And oil down 2.44% after going up 8.8% yesterday.

Nothingburger for now. 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:04 | 6493915 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The frog legs are boiling over.  Massive swings like this are a sign to "shit, or get off the pot (outhouse)" time.  Enjoy your nothingburger.  

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:42 | 6492875 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Great info, but how do I make money off of it??? I got fifty bucks to play with !!!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:45 | 6492890 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Start a conspiracy. It's the path to huge riches from what I read here.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:08 | 6492979 Hulk
Hulk's picture

As far as I can tell, the conspiracies are all taken, any other ideas ???

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:34 | 6493122 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

Buy some long dated QQQ puts. Sit back and enjoy the fireworks and turn your 50 into 5000.....only problem is your 5000 won't buy you a hamburger. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:43 | 6492882 ZombieHuntclub
ZombieHuntclub's picture

Paid $1.88/ gallon today. Drill baby drill.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:56 | 6492932 Shpedly
Shpedly's picture

Was that with your Kroger or other grocery store points?

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:55 | 6493218 Takeaction2
Takeaction2's picture

I am traveling in Kentucky right now and at Kroger $1.84 a gallon with your Kroger card.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:44 | 6492886 Stormtrooper
Stormtrooper's picture

Buckle up, secure your basic essentials and buy LOTs of liquor for barter and for personal use. Maybe when you awaken from your drunken stupor you will find that it was just a bad nightmare. Or, maybe not.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:51 | 6492900 H H Henry P P P...
H H Henry P P P Paulson's picture

I'm sensing a nasty reversal in futures imminently.  This piece of shit retail-bullrun fakeout isn't over yet.  SP futures off by 1.46% while DOW futures only off 0.70%, the algos are playing Chess with the late-in-the-game shorts.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:22 | 6493055 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

You sir were correct, I plan on listening to your words closely in the future. Cheers.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:49 | 6492906 knukles
knukles's picture

Well, they have another 30 days before they have to cook the books for months and quarter end.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:55 | 6492931 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Book cooking is full time job on Wall Street as you know. The chefs are busy, busy, busy. 

Mark to market is dead and so is honest accounting. Hence our situation...lies told by liars.  

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:50 | 6492908 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

strange how it always plummets in Asian trading and goin into that shithole New York only to explode in the last hour of trading in that other center of fraud London...

its like a pattern or something....

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:51 | 6492909 adr
adr's picture

Too bad the RBOB and heating oil contracts expired before oil decided to drop.

20% up in three days. I'd like to go to NY and take the extra $100 I'm going to have to pay to fill my oil tank out of some trader's ass.

That HTF tower in NJ would be a great target for someone.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:51 | 6492911 CHC
CHC's picture

I need some Dramamine.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:52 | 6492916 lbrecken
lbrecken's picture

ZH has complete ly lost all object ivity.....stop the oil bs

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:52 | 6492919 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

The Algos running the stops up and down, reminds me of playing cards with one of those guys who just grab the entire stack of cards, and figures out what he can lay down later...

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:38 | 6493144 worbsid
worbsid's picture

I used to play poker with a couple blind guys and they use braile cards.  Come to find out, they could read your cards as they delt them. That was fair because I was looking at their cards as I delt them.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:54 | 6492926 CHC
CHC's picture

DOW futures at 8:54pm -201

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:43 | 6493164 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

7:44 Mountain time -234.

 

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 23:04 | 6493556 Sanity Bear
Mon, 08/31/2015 - 20:54 | 6492928 One And Only
One And Only's picture

I guess more Picasso's are going to need to be posted as collateral for loans to meet margin calls.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:02 | 6492961 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

If gas gets any cheaper I'll never drive again!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:03 | 6492963 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Funny how roller coaster rides seem to invariably precede market crashes.

On the other hand, this time's probably different.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:33 | 6493117 booboo
booboo's picture

Yes, eerily like 200aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggggghhh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJfowXTXOfU

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:11 | 6493021 polo007
polo007's picture

According to MarketWatch.com:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/morgan-stanley-cuts-sp-500-price-target...

Morgan Stanley cuts S&P 500 price target

Published: Aug 31, 2015 7:04 p.m. ET

Morgan Stanley trimmed its 12-month outlook on the S&P 500 Index by more than 3% Monday, owing to forecasts of lower growth and higher inflation, as well as expectations for multiple rate hikes by the Federal Reserve before the end of 2016.

The firm said it was cutting its 12-month target for the S&P 500 to 2,200 from 2,275, with expected forward price-to-earnings ratios of 16.6 rather than the previous forecast of 17.2.

Morgan Stanley’s 2,275 target for the S&P 500 started 2015 as one of the most bullish targets for the index. Back then, the S&P 500 had finished the year at 2,058.90, after a run-up of just more than 11%. Currently, the index is down just more than 4% for the year, closing Monday at 1,972.18.

“Our new bull case of 2,425 is below our prior bull case of 2,600 by 7%,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Parker wrote in a Monday note. “Our new bear case is 1,500 vs. our prior 1,700, down 12%.”

“The combination of lower growth, the potential for higher inflation, and a retrenching Fed dampens the bull case potential in our judgment,” Parker wrote.

Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to raise rates five times between now and the end of 2016.

The firm also cut its 2016 earnings-per-share forecast for the S&P 500 to $128.50 from a previous $131.

“The stronger dollar and lower economic channel assumed by our macro colleagues are the causes of our reduced 2016 EPS outlook, though the recent dollar/euro weakness is a directional positive for earnings relative to a few weeks ago,” the note said.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:07 | 6493943 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

That's still a lot of "bull" in the forecast.

It reminds me of real estate agents. Has anyone ever met one that forecast a downturn in real estate? They have only two forecasts: 1. Real estate is going up. 2. Real estate is about to go up. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:17 | 6493031 Shpedly
Shpedly's picture

Overnight S&P futures? Seriously, some of you must be really starved for entertainment. You will go insane watching that shit. Better off watching reruns of Honey Boo Boo.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:23 | 6493061 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Too late I am already insane, time to feed the beast

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:36 | 6493131 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

I'm thinking futures volume could break some records overnight. They be trading like Krazy!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:08 | 6493950 FreedomGuy
FreedomGuy's picture

I actually find them fascinating in the same way as watching a traffic accident about to happen. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:46 | 6493183 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

I prefer reruns of Married with Children, but I get your point.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:19 | 6493043 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

Did uncle sugar stop sending smack to the market makers?

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 21:25 | 6493068 Spiritof42
Spiritof42's picture

I think it is instuctive to think about how far down can this deflation can go. The answer I come up with is - lower than prices in the 1940s.

It is certainly not a time to owe or own debt. As far as wages go, if you are still working, wages won't fall as far as consumer prices. Reason being that the productivity gains of the past 60 years have been masked by inflation.

I look forward to the day when gas costs 30 cents a gallon again.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:05 | 6493213 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

I have one small student loan and a small monthly payment on an RV to live in, worst case scenario...do you think this is acceptable? No CC debt, no mortgage, no car payments and I rent a house that I can move out of quickly. NO other debt. I have pondered this subject for many years nad came to the same conclusion. Where does this leave PM's? Do you think Harry Dent is right? Although, I do belive the wild card in all this is the dollar and it's role as the world reserve currency.  

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:07 | 6493942 22winmag
22winmag's picture

A rifle and a big stack of ammo, rice, and sardines would make a good insurance policy.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 23:50 | 6493729 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

The taxes alone on gas average around 40 cents a gallon, dear. And if gas before tax goes to 30, the taxes are going well over a dollar. So don't get your hopes up.

Besides at 30 cents a gallon no one can produce gas anymore. Even the Saudis can't handle it. They'll cut production long before that.

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:14 | 6493226 franzpick
franzpick's picture

DJIA futures down 300, SPX minus 40: Irving Fisher was one step ahead - in a developing worldwide debt collapse, he knew you had to lie before things get serious:

http://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:10 | 6493302 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Oh! If it was ONLY 240 points down.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:18 | 6493342 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Hey I'm waiting for September for the crash. BTFD or I ain't gonna make no money.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 22:32 | 6493408 Wilcox1
Wilcox1's picture

PPT, get yer asses outta bed. Hammer that thing at the open.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 23:42 | 6493704 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Awesome, my S+P shorts look better and I may get out of that gold trade ahead yet.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 01:08 | 6493935 22winmag
22winmag's picture

The beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning?

 

Popcorn popping.

 

IT"S SEPTEMBBER RIGHT NOW BITCHEZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 06:22 | 6494288 Slowdrip
Slowdrip's picture

'Dark Pools' a bubblenn, green by open....

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 07:30 | 6494373 chomu
chomu's picture

Wake me the funk up when XIV is @ 150 and VXX is  @ 2 and reverse splitting 10 for 1 again..

VXX may be the biggest turds wall st ever created

 

-chomu

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 10:05 | 6494893 aempirei
aempirei's picture

XIV is going to be the buy of a lifetime once volatility tops out. It went through something similar in late 2011 before rising nearly 800% over the following 4 years. Benefits from roughly 10% roll yield every month. 

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