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If The Fed Is Always Wrong, How Can Its Policies Ever Be Right?
Submitted by Ralph Benko via Forbes.com,
One of the most curiously persistent surrealisms of Washington, DC is the reflexive deference given the Federal Reserve System. The Washington elite tends to accord more infallibility to the Fed than do Catholics the Pope.
Now comes one of the world’s top monetary reporters, Ylan Q. Mui, to make a delicate observation at the Washington Post’s Wonkblog, in Why nobody believes the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. Mui:
“The market recognizes that the Fed has repeatedly erred on the optimistic side,” said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at RBC Global Asset Management. “Fool me 50 times, but not 51 times.”
Even the government’s official budget forecasters are dubious of the Fed’s own forecast.
This is a theme that Mui has touched on before. In 2013, she wrote Is the Fed’s crystal ball rose-colored?:
The big question is whether Fed officials can get it right after years in which they have regularly predicted a stronger economy than the one that materialized. In January 2011, Fed officials predicted that GDP would grow around 3.7 percent that year. It clocked in at 2 percent. In January 2012, they anticipated growth of about 2.5 percent. We ended up with 1.6 percent.
To give Ms. Mui’s competition its due, Dr. Richard Rahn at the Washington Times last April crisply noted:
The Federal Reserve had forecast the U.S. economy to grow about 4 percent near the beginning of each year for the last five years. But during each year, the Fed was forced to reduce its forecast until it got to the actual number of approximately 2 percent. (Other government agencies have been making equally bad forecasts.) These mammoth errors clearly show that the forecast models the official agencies use are mis-specified and contain incorrect assumptions.
What’s going on here?
A good bet would be that there’s a problem with the Fed’s reliance on an arcane art. This art is designated “Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium” modeling.
Sound scientific? Well.
With admirable intellectual honesty an assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group, Marco Del Negro, Wharton Ph.D. student Raiden Hasegawa and University of Pennsylvania professor of economics Frank Schorfheide (speaking for themselves and not the Fed) open a two part analysis at the NY Fed’s own excellent Liberty Street Economics, Choosing the Right Policy in Real Time (What That’s Not Easy):
Model uncertainty is pervasive. Economists, bloggers, policymakers all have different views of how the world works and what economic policies would make it better. These views are, like it or not, models. Some people spell them out in their entirety, equations and all. Others refuse to use the word altogether, possibly out of fear of being falsified. No model is “right,” of course, but some models are worse than others, and we can have an idea of which is which by comparing their predictions with what actually happened.
The authors go on to conclude in the second part of their analysis:
In the end, we have shown that policy analysis in the very oversimplified world of DSGE models is a pretty difficult business. Contrary to what it may sometimes appear from listening to talking heads, deciding which policy is best is very rarely a slam dunk.
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modeling sure sounds amazing. That said let’s be blunt. If NASA suffered from comparable inaccuracy the manned spaceflight program would have been shut down by an endless series of Challenger-type catastrophes many years ago. With monetary forecasts this bad is it any wonder the American economy continually crashes and burns?
As I have noted before, yet it bears repeating, Prof. Reuven Brenner powerfully has called our current system to account:
[M]acro-economics is now [astrology’s] modern incarnation: Only instead of stars, macro-economists look at “aggregates” gathered religiously by governments’ statistical agencies – never mind if the country has a dictatorial regime, be it left, right or anything in between, or has large black markets, as Italy and Greece do, where tax evasion has long been the main national sport. So let us first forget about this “macro” stuff, whose beginnings are almost a century old, and offer a simple alternative for shedding light on the situation today and on possible solutions, hopefully demolish this modern pseudo-”science” once and for all.
Classical liberal economist Axel Kaiser anticipated this line of argument in his book Intervention and Misery: 1929 – 2008 by calling for the “end of the mystery [which] implies the end of the witch doctors and the definite defeat of the economic astrology that has prevailed in recent decades.”
This line of criticism, while apparently alien to the Fed, is nothing new. Hayek, in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech The Pretence of Knowledge tartly observed:
We have indeed at the moment little cause for pride: as a profession we have made a mess of things.
It seems to me that this failure of the economists to guide policy more successfully is closely connected with their propensity to imitate as closely as possible the procedures of the brilliantly successful physical sciences — an attempt which in our field may lead to outright error. It is an approach which has come to be described as the “scientistic” attitude — an attitude which, as I defined it some thirty years ago, “is decidedly unscientific in the true sense of the word, since it involves a mechanical and uncritical application of habits of thought to fields different from those in which they have been formed.” I want today to begin by explaining how some of the gravest errors of recent economic policy are a direct consequence of this scientistic error.
That said, nobody, not even the great Hayek, nailed the problem better than did Hans Christian Anderson in The Emperor’s New Clothes:
One day, two rogues, calling themselves weavers, made their appearance. They gave out that they knew how to weave stuffs of the most beautiful colors and elaborate patterns, the clothes manufactured from which should have the wonderful property of remaining invisible to everyone who was unfit for the office he held, or who was extraordinarily simple in character.
“These must, indeed, be splendid clothes!” thought the Emperor. “Had I such a suit, I might at once find out what men in my realms are unfit for their office, and also be able to distinguish the wise from the foolish! This stuff must be woven for me immediately.”
…
And now the Emperor himself wished to see the costly manufacture, while it was still in the loom. …
“Is not the work absolutely magnificent?” said the two officers of the crown, already mentioned. “If your Majesty will only be pleased to look at it! What a splendid design! What glorious colors!” and at the same time they pointed to the empty frames; for they imagined that everyone else could see this exquisite piece of workmanship.
“How is this?” said the Emperor to himself. “I can see nothing! This is indeed a terrible affair! Am I a simpleton, or am I unfit to be an Emperor?
…
So now the Emperor walked under his high canopy in the midst of the procession, through the streets of his capital; and all the people standing by, and those at the windows, cried out, “Oh! How beautiful are our Emperor’s new clothes! …
“But the Emperor has nothing at all on!” said a little child.
If the Fed is making policy based on consistently wrong predictions how good can its policy consistently be? If its forecasts consistently are wrong — as now is undeniable — on what is it basing policy? Guesswork (more pretentiously phrased as “discretion”)?
America deserves some candor. A frank admission of “guesswork” — even educated guesswork — would better our understanding of why American workers have been for the past 15 years, and are today, engaged in painful belt-tightening. And, forgive the heresy, just maybe there is a better way than guesswork.
Ylan Mui is, as she ought to be, far too politic to be so blunt. Thus it falls to me, in my role as the simpleton on this beat, to declare: The Emperor has no clothes.
I’d welcome being set straight if the Board of Governors is prepared to contest this simpleton. Surely Chair Yellen or Vice Chair Fischer — both first rate economists and authentically honorable public servants — will support the Brady-Cornyn Centennial Monetary Commission legislation lately approved by Chairman Hensarling’s House Financial Services Committee.
So let the Fed set me straight by entering the beautiful canopy of this Commission to make the case for the exceptional beauty of its handiwork. If, rather, the Fed raises objections to a Commission (to which it will appoint an ex officio commissioner)… perhaps my declaration is not, after all, that of a simpleton. In the event of Fed opposition Congress should be even more eager to enact this Monetary Commission.
I say the Emperor has no clothes. If clad, high time to parade their exceptional beauty.
Pass the Centennial Monetary Commission. Let’s see the Emperor’s clothes.
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The Fed's QE is the reason behind the systematic destruction of American society >> https://goo.gl/IoiSjv
I say we keep Yellin's cloths on please
Ralph!
What if I told you... the people who make it into office *need* the fed to be right, because they weren't elected in office to simply take handouts away from their constituents, and taming the fed means reducing the money supply, and reducing the money supply means less chance they'll be re-elected....hence the fed is always right...
The fed is always right, because our career politicians have a legacy they need to complete, hence the fed is always right.
This means essentially madness to politicians. They have to appear to be doing something, so the free money (deficit spending) must continue to exist, but fiscally they have to be outrageously destructive and literally appear inept so that they can blame fiscal failures on anyone but themselves.
Rule #1 in a madhouse, don't be the warden.
To borrow the underlying notion from Mitch Feierstein., if the Fed can ever surmount the unequivocally impossible task of tapering a Ponzi, then you will know they are right.
She wears clothes?
I thought that was a hide
Astrology at the Fed.
By our own laws... the FED is a terrorist organization.
Look it up if you don't believe me.
So, are you just going to go along with the game?
Hold physical.
Dump paper.
Happy September.
How can Fed policies ever be right since the Fed is always wrong. (and illegal)
There...fixed it for ya.
Sociopaths are incapable of admitting wrongdoing.
no fucking doubt about that! And the gov-scum are all gangster sociopaths for sure!
Fraud is never right and always wrong.
It is NOT so
Gamma735!
If one is attempting to kill someone else before they can kill you, then the best frauds are the right thing to do. Indeed, those intense paradoxes developed through the history of warfare, whose successes were based upon backing up deceits with destruction, so that the surviving War Kings made the sovereign states, whose powers were effectively privatized by the Fraud Kings, the banksters, whose single most significant institution became the USA's Federal Reserve Board.
Basically, Gamma735, you have stated a classic false fundamental dichotomy, which, as an impossible ideal, actually makes the opposite happen in the real world. There MUST be some death control systems, and there ARE. When people do not agree, then those conflicts result in them fighting. When people fight, then dishonesty is the best policy.
The oldest book on The Art of War starts by saying that "success in war is based upon deceit," and ends by saying "spies are the most important soldiers." Thousands of years of history have confirmed that, from Machiavelli to Clausewitz, with a more recent statement by Alexander Vladimirov being: "All human history can be portrayed as the history of deception."
Basically, Gamma735, your assertion is about as over-simplified and stupid as it could possibly be. Such a view is as absurdly backwards as possible, and such impossible ideals always result in the opposite actually being caused to happen in the real world. That kind of ridiculously unrealistic view actually enables professional liars and immaculate hypocrites to continue to be socially successful.
However, thousands of years of that history of civilization being successfully based on backing up lies with violence, becoming the systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, as demonstrated by the ways that the government of the USA enforces the frauds of the Federal Reserve Board, are running into problems due to excessive success.
There are deeper reasons regarding how and why the world's political economy is operating through fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. Facile assertions that "fraud is always wrong" are dangerously useless and counter-productive, due to how ridiculously shallow and unrealistic those assertions are!
The only things that actually exist are the dynamic equilibria between different systems of organized lies operating robberies. The current problems are due to the excessive successfulness of entities like the Federal Reserve Board becoming extremely unbalanced, due to the degree that their frauds have been enforced for generation after generation. The deeper sources of the reasons for how and why that happened have been lost in prehistory.
There always was, is, and must be, some death control systems, which are central to everything else. Those death controls backing up the debt controls are what enables the Federal Reserve Board to operate as a central bank that can engage in central planning. However, I REPEAT, those abilities to ENFORCE FRAUDS have become extremely unbalanced, due to becoming excessively successful. To respond to that situation with the gross over-simplifications that "fraud is wrong" provides nothing that could work as unitary mechanisms which could change the dynamic equilibria of the systems of social robberies, such as manifesting through the symbolic robberies achieved through the government enforcing the frauds perpetrated by the Federal Reserve Board.
Overall, I would imagine, that your views, Gamma735, would be typical of those who I refer to as being the Black Sheeple. After you recognize that the banksters are Wolves in sheep's clothing, your response is to recommend that everyone should become better Sheeple (i.e., everyone should agree with the impossible ideals that fraud is always wrong.) In my view, you could not be more wrong, on every different level. On the contrary, I recommend that the only genuine solutions require that, metaphorically speaking, everyone should become better Wolves.
If you're a private company run by Ceo's from other private companies and you get to print the world reserve currency....
How dangerous can you be?
Those guys are as powerfull als all dictators arround the world.
people still read Forbes?
the fed NEVER FAILS to make the 1% richer
The FED is an acronym for FRAUD.
thank you for comparing the FED to the Pope; I hope my comparative analysis down memory lane has inspired others to test the rhymes of history.
Dictatus Papae and QE/ZIRP are constructs that show the same Mindset : our dogma prevails over reality; we reinvent in finance the meanings of risk vs return -- and consequently in geopolitics, by imposing our machinations (doing God's work) on the elected and their electors !
Thus on the nation and on the world!
Viva Papadiplodocus !
I googled "logical positivism," which, as I humbly understand, is the reason we keep getting rosy scenarios from such nice people known as "economists" that never actually happen. Here's a quote I found "Logical Positivism, which arose in philosophy early in the twentieth century, proclaimed the sharp distinction between facts and values. Despite objections at the time, positivism was imported into economics in the 1930s. Over time, objections lessened; economics was transformed and ethical considerations were driven out of its core." I take "ethics" and "facts" together, as in "telling the truth." "Values," in this context, I take as the desired outcome. Thus, one can claim the desired outcome as having been achieved because one performed the required incantation or ceremony, much as the priests of an ancient civilization. Thus, whether or not the economy recovers is not relevant to the high priests of the economy at the fed, but merely whether they properly performed the rain dance. Reality, what a concept.
Valid insight
matagorda!
The two dominate state religions in the USA are the monetary system and national security. Those work to reinforce each other. The public "money" supply is made out of nothing as debts. It is a fiat, or faith-based "money," that is not directly backed by anything. Rather, that form of "money" is indirectly backed by the government demanding payment of taxes using that form of "money," as well as generally defining that form of "money" as legal tender. (It was NOT an accident that the USA income tax and Federal Reserve Board can both be traced back to their milestone in 1913.)
State religions are ENFORCED FRAUDS. Indeed, the Federal Reserve Board operates as the single most significant institution within such a state religion, which is integrated into globalized systems. The "reality" is that money is necessarily measurement backed by murder. However, the social successfulness of those ways that governments ENFORCE FRAUDS by privately controlled banks enable those who are the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites to become the most successful people within those systems.
Meanwhile, "the sharp distinction between facts and values" was another of the ways that DUALITIES prevailed, because those kinds of false fundamental dichotomies, and related impossible ideals, enabled professional liars and immaculate hypocrites to become more socially successful, by operating through the state religions, which were based on a long, long history of the biggest bullies' bullshit social stories, which became the banksters' bullshit. Regarding the alleged "sharp distinction between facts and values" advances through information theory demonstrated that there was no basic difference between instructions and data. Of course, that pattern can be found to have repeated itself over and over again, due to the ways that the scientific enterprise, as another social enterprise, was forced to compromise with the biggest bullies' bullshit world views.
Economists were the intellectual mercenaries who enjoyed proportional social successes based upon the degree to which the kinds of bullshit that they spouted was approved by the banksters, and could be deployed to advance the banksters' systems of debt slavery, backed by wars based on deceits. The "scientistic errors" made by economists are due to economics being a science in the same way as warfare is a science. Indeed, warfare was the oldest and best developed form of social science and engineering, but its successfulness was based upon deceits and treacheries. Similarly, economics is science, but one which deliberately misrepresents itself as much as possible. Hence, greatest degrees of financial successfulness are based upon taking advantage of systems that ENFORCE FRAUDS, while that kind of social success requires that it be publicly presented in the most dishonest ways possible.
Of course, the most socially successful economists developed better ways to bullshit about what was happening and why. "Reality" becomes quite hyper-complicated, the more that one considers how the principles and methods of organized crime work, and manifest on different levels as fractal patterns. Being able to ENFORCE FRAUDS is the basis of the state religions that dominate the USA today. In that context, the "scientistic errors" are way more profound than as presented in the article above.
It is extremely difficult to guess what the banksters' minions might actually believe in their own minds. I tend to expect that the people currently running the Federal Reserve Board are examples of Mark Twain's observation that: "The best liars believe in their own lies." Regarding the willful blindness that the people who run the Federal Reserve Board must continue to rely upon, another saying by Upton Sinclair comes to mind: "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"
The first rule of ideology is that people tend to rationalize whatever is the way that they make a living. Civilizations developed on the basis of specialization of labour, resulting in compartmentalizations of understanding. The high priests and priestesses of the dominate state religions operate inside of that overall context. They are well-paid to spout their bullshit, while they would be fired if they did not stick to that script. Indeed, they would never have been hired in the first place if they had not already spent their life being trained and proving themselves to be well-behaved performers, able to continue to promote the state religions, no matter how absurdly backwards the results of doing that could be demonstrated to become. (Systems actually based on backing up legalized lies with legalized violence are NOT interested in any rational evidence or logical arguments, EXCEPT those which would assist them to better back up those lies with violence.)
At the same time, I would also emphasize that almost all of the publicly significant apparent opposition to the Federal Reserve Board systems tend to also believe in their own old-fashioned religions and ideologies. Indeed, almost the only things that have significant public presences are the core state religions, surrounded by controlled opposition groups promoting alternative religions, or ideologies that are believed in as if those were religions. Religion is the most arrogant form of politics, and state religions multiply that to the greatest possible degree.
playing us like a violin
if lovin' Yellen's wrong...
I don't wanna be right!
They never will be right. You have to lock them up in prisons. They are like pedophiles and won't stop until they are locked up.
3 central banks abolished.
Once is circumstance, twice is coincidence, three times is a pattern. We are are on number four. What the fuck did anyone think was going to happen? No fraud? Hahaha!!
Dumb question
It's ying and yang
Two opposing forces bringing harmony and equilibrium
No, not so,
Baby Eating!
That is another grossly mistaken view based upon DUALITIES. That kind of mistake leads to false fundamental dichotomies and the related impossible ideals, which actually assist professional liars and immaculate hypocrites to get away with spouting their bullshit social stories.
"Yang" exists the way that energy exists. "Yin" does not exist, the way that time and space to do not actually exist in themselves. Similarly, heat exists, cold does not, while light exists, but darkness does not, and so on and so forth, throughout all of the other paradigm shifts achieved through the history of scientific revolutions in physical science.
Similar processes should now be developed in political science. There is only one energy, and thus only one political system, which matches the principles and methods of organized crime. It is NOT "two opposing forces." It is dynamic equlibria between the same forces.
I have outlined more about that perspective in another reply below. It is NOT "organized crime versus government." Rather, governments are necessarily the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals. That is how and why the Federal Reserve Board exists, and actually operates the way it does! Furthermore, the only realistic resolutions to those real problems should continue to use UNITARY MECHANISMS, rather than be based on the same old bullshit DUALITIES.
Trust is an opiate. Hope is a stupor. The Fed is a creation of government. Nietzsche: "Everything the government (the Fed) says is a lie; everything government (The Fed) has it has stolen."
There are no bankers who can be trusted. The Fed is proof that an uebermenschen to act for us is a delusion.
The fed knows exactly what they're doing... enslaving mankind and just stealing every real asset on the planet. The fed also knows everything they say is a lie.
congress creates absurd fiscal policy (tax code, trade agreements) that even the most intelligent person on the planet can not comply with, much less understand.
+
The fed is then forced (the lady greenspan/bernanke/yellen proteths a bit much, but that is another story) to "clean up the mess" via absurd keysianism that also requires a PhD to even mock properly.
________________
= ??? it balances out right ???
Nope. Free will destroyed. Trillion dollars of debt and foriegn wars, that will be paid for with the blood and treasure of generations of people who are not even born yet.
“The combat and instability would continue because its real source was the political contract struck between democracy and capital back in 1913, the implicit decision that democratic politics could not be trusted to act responsibly in the national interest. Therefore, the authority and responsibilities of elected politicians were permanently curtailed. Put another way, the elected government was allowed to be permanently irresponsible – free to indulge its own follies and protected from the accountability by the higher authority, the non-elected central bank. The creation of the Federal Reserve represented a great retreat from democratic possibilities. The maturing of self-government was forever stunted.” Pg. 534, Secrets of the Temple – How the Federal Reserve Runs the Country, William Greider, Simon and Schuster, 1987
It might be petty, but I think it's 'afford' and not 'accord'; that said, I agree 100%. Another instance of the right questions never asked.
Oh grow up. the fed is not wrong... they're just evil. They're not inept... they know exactly what they are doing. The system works... Most of us are just in denial about it's purpose.
Indeed so,
2handband!
However, it is WAY WORSE than merely that, since while the Federal Reserve Board was originally made and maintained in the following ways, that I quote below, the currently existing systems of globalized electronic frauds, backed by the threat of the force of atomic bombs, are NOT fully understood by anyone. The banksters are surely the biggest gangsters, however, being able to control other people through backing up legalized lies with legalized violence does NOT mean that "they know exactly what they are doing!" Rahter, in general, the established systems of globalized electronic monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs, are NOT fully understood by the monkeys and apes that are doing that!
As stated by historian Carroll Quigley:
"powers of financial capitalism
had another far-reaching goal,
nothing less than to create a
world system of financial
control in private hands
able to dominate the
political system of
each country and
the economy of
the world as
a whole ..."
That system was "to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements. ...The apex of the system was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world’s central banks which were themselves private corporations. ... It must not be felt that the heads of the world's chief central banks were themselves substantive powers in world finance. They were not. Rather they were the technicians and agents of the dominant investment bankers of their own countries, who had raised them up, and who were perfectly capable of throwing them down. The substantive financial powers of the world were in the hands of these investment bankers who remained largely behind the scenes in their own unincorporated private banks. These formed a system of international cooperation and national dominance which was more private, more powerful, and more secret than that of their agents in the central banks."
Central bankers work like organized crime works.
However, history like that is now more like archaeology. It helps to explain how and why we ended up living inside of Wonderland Matrix Bizarro World, where everything appears to be absurdly backwards, since governments are ENFORCING FRAUDS by privately controlled banks, which social situations are automatically becoming more psychotic every day. Moreover, I believe it is vital to reconsider the degree to which: "Most of us are just in denial about it's purpose."
"The absolute best controlled opposition is
one that doesn't know they are controlled."
-- Cognitive Dissonance
The biggest bullies' bullshit social stories morphed to become the banksters' bullshit, that dominated political economy so much that almost everyone takes it for granted:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-16/its-not-economy-stupid-its-fed
It's Not The Economy Stupid: It's The Fed
The Federal Reserve Board represents the excessively triumphant applications of the methods of organized crime through the political processes, to develop extremely unbalanced systems which have become runaway criminal insanities. In that context, the metaphors based upon stories like "The Emperor's New Clothes" do not account for the actual history of ENFORCING FRAUDS. To retell that story more realistically would require that when the boy blurted out that the Emperor was naked, then that boy, along with the rest of his family, would all have been murdered.
Money is measurement backed by murder. Articles like the one above deliberately do not engage in any deeper analysis about how and why that the case. Stories like the one above tend to presume too much upon Hanlon's Razor. Similarly, most of the comments that point that mistake out tend to also remain too superficial as well.
Those few who point out that the Federal Reserve Board is actually the manifestation of triumphant organized crime, with the international banksters having been the biggest gangsters, who were able to corrupt governments (primarily through their persistent and increasing domination of all aspects of the funding of the political processes), in their own ways also remain another kind of controlled opposition, because they usually tend to continue to rely upon the same old-fashioned dualities, false fundamental dichotomies, and related impossible ideals, when they switch gears from their relatively superficial analyses to their suggestions for various bogus "solutions."
Since the debt controls are backed by the death controls, the only genuine resolutions to the real problems require changing the death control systems. Since the so-called sovereign state powers that back up the banksters' financial frauds do so with the threat of force from weapons of mass destruction, the basic problem behind the currently existing monetary system is the military system, which is faced with the questions regarding how to operate the human murder systems after the development of atomic bombs, et alia!
The history of successful warfare based on backing up deceits with destruction became the history of successful finance based on backing up frauds with force. Of course, relatively few people publicly present those insights, while even fewer take the trip deeper down into the rabbit hole, or higher up into the tornado, or go sufficiently through the looking glass of the Bizarro World that exists due to governments being the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, namely, the currently established political economy based upon bankster controlled governments.
While the frequencies of facing those facts found on the Zero Hedge Web site are way higher than in the more mainstream media, such as the article above republished from Forbes, even most of the comments published on Zero Hedge tend to be presentations of controlled opposition groups, promoting bogus "solutions" based upon old-fashioned dualities, false fundamental dichotomies, and the related impossible ideals.
While the Federal Reserve Board's existence and operations are due to triumphant organized crime dominating the political processes, in general, it gets away with publicly presenting itself otherwise. Moreover, those few who do point those facts out then also tend to switch gears to collapse back to the same old bullshit "solutions" about somehow we should stop that. However, money is necessarily measurement backed by murder. There are NO solutions to the debt control problems that do not also work as solutions to the death control problems, within the combined money/murder systems.
The basic cul de sac dilemmas that the Federal Reserve Board has found itself inside are WAY WORSE than the mainstream media, like Forbes, tend to present, and still WORSE than what alternative media like Zero Hedge tend to present. In my view the BIG PROBLEM is the relationship between artificial selection systems within natural selection systems. Natural selection pressures drove human selection systems to resolve their problems in ways which were most socially successful when based upon the maximum possible deceits and frauds.
The few people who begin to recognized the degree to which governments are the biggest forms of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangsters (i.e., as demonstrated by how the Federal Reserve Board is controlling the government of the USA, similar to how almost all of the world's governments are currently dominated by the banksters), tend to promote the same old-fashioned bullshit "solutions" to that situation, based upon somehow stopping that. Such bogus "solutions" are equivalent to attempting to stop human beings and civilizations operating as entropic pumps of energy flows. Such bogus "solutions" tend to promote the impossible ideals of having politics without violence, which would be like physics without force.
However, at the same time, the deeper analysis that should be done could lead to developing deeper sets of solutions, which were consistent with that deeper analysis. The established systems whereby governments ENFORCE FRAUDS by privately controlled banks required that the vast majority of people develop attitudes based upon deliberately ignoring the principle of the conservation of energy as much as possible, while also deliberately misunderstanding the concept of entropy in the most absurdly backward ways possible.
The Federal Reserve Board actually shares in those problems, just as much as does most of their controlled opposition groups. Neolithic Civilizations' social pyramid systems repeat their same patterns of runaway criminal insanities from the pyramidion people on down throughout the lower levels of those social pyramid systems. The BIG PROBLEM in the background was always natural selection pressures. After life exists, then the death controls direct the evolution of that life. That applies to human beings. They were able to internalize natural selection as intelligence, and develop better mental models of their world, with mental models of themselves within their world. However, along that path, the history of successful warfare based upon deceits and treacheries led the way to development of political economy based upon enforcing frauds (i.e., bankster controlled governments, such as the FED & USA.)
The degree to which successful finance is necessarily based upon organized lies operating robberies, with banksters' frauds being the most important forms of symbolic robberies, is generally not appreciated by the mainstream media. However, at the same time, most of the alternative media continue to be dominated by controlled opposition groups. Therefore, instead of realistic solutions which admit and address the real problems, there are typically presented bogus "solutions" based upon impossible ideals.
Of course, it is easy to appreciate how and why, when it comes to understanding the established money/murder systems: "Most of us are just in denial about it's purpose." After all, if one does not stay within those attitudes of deep denial, then one should admit and address the BIG PROBLEM of how to operate the human murder systems after the development of weapons of mass destruction. OBVIOUSLY, that is a WAY, WAY, WAY WORSE PROBLEM than tends to be presented by any superficial analysis of the monetary systems which do not admit and address the necessary connections of those to the military systems.
The very idea underlying the paper by the Fed economists noting the inability of their DSGE models to "predict" anything is already an erronerous premise. Who ever came up with the idea that economics is about "prediction"? It isn't. Neither is it about "finding policies". The term "policy" implies that some sort of central planning is needed. That is not the case - the exact opposite is true.