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The Oil Volatility Farce Continues: Oil Now Surging As OPEC Hints At "Fair Price" Talks

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The equity market momo-igniters tried USDJPY - and failed. Then they tried XIV - and failed. So what next? WTI crude of course which has just exploded back to Friday's highs, with Brent Crude also breaking back above $50.

 

It appears the catalyst this time may be a stray OPEC headline:

  • OPEC READY TO TALK TO OTHER PRODUCERS TO ACHIEVE `FAIR PRICES'

And then one asks: what OPEC? Didn't Saudi Arabia destroy the cartel last November.

For now, however, welcome to the Penny-Oil market:

 

Friday high stops have been run - now run to the lows to test those stops?

Finally, let's not forget that today is month end for the person many expect will be oil's second casualty in one year - Andy Hall, who late in 2014 blew up once already, and should oil have continued its gravitational descent, would have been in line for a second hedge fund closure in under 12 months. So is it just month end window dressing by all those underwater commodity managers? Why, of course.

 

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Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:34 | 6490353 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

awesome. i was about ready to start storing some in my swimming pool. /s

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:52 | 6490458 Manthong
Manthong's picture

The fun thing about Quant – ified  algo trading is that hints, innuendoes, fake-outs and rumors will move markets.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:54 | 6490467 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Fair price in gold grams per bbl.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:20 | 6490578 where_is the_nuke
where_is the_nuke's picture

Do you like to smoke while swimming?

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:30 | 6490616 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Wonder if Fram makes an oil pool filter???

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:10 | 6490354 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

They've resorted to using energy to prop up the markets...in a very perverse way as higher costs for money and energy is not a recipe for Dow 20000

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:37 | 6490357 wrs1
wrs1's picture

Too bad so sad for oil shorts and shale haters.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:38 | 6490379 saints51
saints51's picture

Quit lying little boy.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:40 | 6490386 wrs1
wrs1's picture

LOL! What's wrong, were you short oil?

 

Gold needs for ZH to post a gold is crashing thread, or maybe one for silver, think that might help?

 

LOLFLOLFLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:41 | 6490396 saints51
saints51's picture

hell no read my comments again from days ago. Goldman issued that oil could go lower. We all said on ZH to start looking for the bottom. Pay attention which is why you are a lying little boy.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:55 | 6490470 troubledasset
troubledasset's picture

Closed my DWTI short.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:05 | 6490519 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Closed mine last week. In at 121 outat 191. Now they will run oil up and the frackers will increase production then it will crash again. They can't let oil go too low or else the credit markets will collapse.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:56 | 6490480 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Agreed, classic headfake by GoldSack.........make all the shorts cover by blowing their stops then watch it all slowly creep back downward towards the low $30's (should find a true bottom there)

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:35 | 6490360 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Just before drowning the victims arms flapped more and more frantically as he tried to stay above water...................

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:36 | 6490366 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Given the current ratio of oil to gasoline prices here on the east coast I figure we'll be nudging $4/gal if it ever hits $60 again.  California would be at $7/gal.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:06 | 6490526 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Sometimes demand destruction is a good thing

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:36 | 6490368 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US imports about 7.5 million barrels a day and saves about $525 million a day with oil prices being about $70 a barrel lower than last year.  Or about $190 billion a year.

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:09 | 6490539 omniversling
omniversling's picture

Good rant by Turd here. Smartly observes that Saudi/Yemen/Iran bashup could close Gulf in a sec. Both Sauds and Iranians would profit from such action.

http://usawatchdog.com/bond-market-explosion-not-stoppable-craig-hemke/

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:37 | 6490372 r101958
r101958's picture

I just wonder how much all this manipulation is costing us?

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:52 | 6490457 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

us don't matter

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:39 | 6490382 Chad_the_short_...
Chad_the_short_seller's picture

You don't see a 10% move in oil on oe day without it meaning something. Oil has probably bottomed. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:42 | 6490397 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Funny how when oil was making it's climb to $140 a barrel all the "experts" told us that Opec didn't have the reserves to impact oil's rise, now we are told only OPEC can halt oil's slide. 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:41 | 6490399 IntercoursetheEU
IntercoursetheEU's picture

stops are for sissies

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:41 | 6490401 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

If oil goes back to $100, say goodbye to consumer spending. Rent at ATH, healthcare, education, etc, combined with high gas prices, and it's game over.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:45 | 6490417 saints51
saints51's picture

of course which is why shale producers will be bought soon by China, Saudi and others for pennies on the dollar. Just the unwind leaving retail with their dick in hand.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:48 | 6490421 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

There's not a snowballs chance in Hell that oil will go back to $100 in the short to medium term.

China's banjaxed.

Europe is banjaxed.

South America is banjaxed.

America is banjaxed.

 

In this environment if costs generally, and oil specifically, start to increase to those levels, what business is there will be wiped out.

 

 

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:45 | 6490416 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Saudis need some cash to pay for their invasion of Yemen.  Maybe the bottom is in?  Actually this correction started two days ago.  So, the 200ma for WTIC is up around $55, if the price can get above that the chart will be happy.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:51 | 6490455 adr
adr's picture

The problem is since evrythign is so highly correlated gasoline futures will move up lockstep with oil instead of falling to meet the lower price where $40-50 oil should put it.

We should have $1.65 gasoline right now. Instead we have $2.60 gas. Oil may move back to $55 and gasoline will go above $3.00.

Remember Goldman Fucks said gasoline will be $4.50 if oil goes back to $80. A price that used to put gasoline close to $2.00.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 11:56 | 6490479 EurGold
Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:05 | 6490520 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

"Fair" meaning high enough to keep those 15 Bentleys gassed up and the staff of twenty Filipinos in uniform.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:10 | 6490543 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

All talk. Everyone knows nobody will cut production. Cheating and backstabbing is ingrained in the system

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 12:28 | 6490609 Jstanley011
Jstanley011's picture

Yep. By definition, to have a cartel you have to have control of the supply. OPEC does not.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 13:31 | 6490828 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

So your "Oil Is Crashing" article of 90 minutes ago... should I read that one?  Should I not read it?  I'm so confused now.  I've found that when I see a new article on ZH it's a far better use of my time if I ignore it until the update comes in.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 15:37 | 6491554 The Shape
The Shape's picture

This site's a hoot. You can tell when the longs and shorts get smashed cause they'll fill up these threads with their reasoning (hopes) on why something will go higher/lower.

Mon, 08/31/2015 - 18:11 | 6492288 erk
erk's picture

There is so much oil on the market in contango, someone is going to get burned on the holding costs unless they can drive the price up and quickly get out.

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