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Stocks Suffer Biggest Monthly Drop In Five Years As Oil Spikes Most Since 1990
Only one thing for it really...
Forget stocks, today was all about crude oil again...
WTI pushed into the green for August!!!
3 Bear markets and 3 Bull markets now in 2015 so far... perfectly tagging the 50-day moving-average today...
This is the biggest 3-day rise in WTI since 1990!!
Oil Volatility and credit markets were not squeezed into euphoria at all...
Trade accordingly!!
* * *
Having got that out of the way...Dow's worst monthly drop since May 2010..
and had an ugly close...
Stocks got some lift from the momo-igniters -but once NYMEX closed, it was over. Stocks traded in a relatiovely narrow range glued to VWAP after the overnight plunge... Small Caps outperformed as Nasdaq Underporformed...
But were glued to VWAP all day... on no volume
Futures markets giveus a better idea of the moves...NOTE -0 this is from the beginning of Friday's pathetic EOD ramp...
Once again complete chaos on VIX ETFs...
VIX had its biggest monthly jump in history...
For the month, it's been a wild ride!! but just look at how clustered the moves were...
Finacials & Enmergy and Healthcare (Biotech) were worst performers in August...
For all the excitment over FANG - August was a mixed bunch for them with FB and AMZN notably red...
With all the craziness in stocks, Treasury yields at the long-end ended the month practically unch... 2Y rose 8bps...
With some more notable weakness today (which was also seen in Bunds)...note once again selling weas in US session, buying in Asia and Europe...
The USD ended the day lower with some major swings in CAD...
As August's USD Index drop was the biggest in 4 months...
Commodities were insane today - led obviously by crude!
And on the month... perhaps most notably, the perfect recoupling of crude and gold on the month!!??
But we note that Gold (+3.5%) had its best month since January even as Silver dropped
Finally - amid all the chaos in August, it appears there is a safe-haven... Gold outperforms
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: We're gonna need Moar QE...
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some words..........tomorrow, sept 1st, boing
Trump gonna save us!!!!
EEH GADS MAN!
Where do we go from here!?!
Oh these crazy modern markets ... putting the "LOLatility" in Vlolatility!
Regards,
Cooter
Those charts look like a new attraction at Six Flags!
Breaking News: WTI to change ticker symbol tomorrow to WTF!
Yes, Tylers...you may use that in future articles. ;-)
Siiiiiiiiiiince...
Wait for it...
Lehman.
I'll say it again; there is no way I'm filling my tank with this cheap $2.00/gal stuff.
I'll wait until it's back up to $4.65/gal before I drive aimlessly back and forth to the mall and FF places.
Moar QE? What a bunch of limp wristed pansies.
Obama needs to make an announcement that anyone caught selling stawk, rumor mongering or short selling will be flogged with a bamboo cane outside the NY Stawk Exchange, then arrested, tried (and of course convicted) and banished to Mt Denali to start chiseling his image into it. That'll teach the unpatriotic bastards!!!
Wimps.
/////////
Wut? ;-)
Down...profit taking Tuesday begins in T-minus 12hrs. You ready??
Funny, how people fall in love with a canidate or political party and, no mater what those candidates do... lie, murder, rape, treason... the sheep still love them.
Exactly, that's why I'm voting for The Donald!
Speaking of charts, what's a quick (web) way to generate power spectral density charts of SPY, to read off the the Fourier series coefficients?
Working on the warp drives at the moment, after that, the shields need repair...one thing at a time captain
Ok, just dusted off my Diffy Eq. book from by-gone years and realized I forgot how to read not to mention integrate. You are on your own.
Are you looking for the convergence of the series?
BTW - those gold and silver underlying charts are harmonic, and they should not be in a "free" market system. The least they can do is introduce some random non-periodicity into the equations they are using for the algorithms.
Just want to see period weightings.
Go ahead and try, you'll need another data set to correlate to those time points because that looks like the only "variable" there (aside from the noise being overwhelmed by the periodicity).
You just look at those gold and silver charts and sigh. There is no fucking way that what is going on isn't programmed. If this has gone this far it makes me wonder how they decide what to fix the prices at or what events trigger actions.
DON'T DO IT, MAN!!! YOU'LL TEAR THE SPACE/TIME CONTINUUM AND OPEN UP A BLACK HOLE THE SIZE OF OBAMA'S BACKSIDE!!!! IT'LL SUCK IN THE ENTIRE GALAXY FOR SURE AND WE'LL ALL BE DOOMED TO THE BLACK HOLE OF OBAMA'S ANUS!!!!
Sure...he'll enjoy it a lot, no doubt about that...but it'll doom us all to pure hell for all of eternity!!!!! Kinda like that last several years have been. ;-)
Wait a minute...that really sounded racist, didn't it? Maybe we should re-name "Black Holes". It's just racially incensitive. Maybe they should now be called "dark suckers" so we don't upset obama. But then again, that might still apply to him. Fuck it. Maybe we could open up the forum for other suggestions. ;-)
If Obama wants to rename a mountain, he certainly can do that (didn't say should). If Obama wants to rename one of his body parts (actually the variable opening, the most perfect valve) to something else, well then he's perfectly able to do that. Wonderin' what others of his acquaintance think about this situation?
- Ned
Black holes will now be known as Denali holes. Carry on.
I watched the DOW attempt SIX times today to break out only to have it's run extinguisehed into a wave of sell orders. Finally on the seventh try it ramped 100 points - for all of about half an hour before it drowned down 100 points under selling pressure. We are only waiting for the clueless muppets to realize they are firmly pinned in the mugging pen.. This thing is going to TANK in about 7-9 days by the curves and it won't be pretty.. Once the muppets realize.. only the most astutely naively brainwashed will stoically look at their mutual fund statements and say 'It will come back..' The Shemitah ends September 13th and by Christmas it will not have disappointed
The other monster is the 100 day moving average. It is pointed towards dow 3000 and the DOW needs to trade ABOVE 17,600 for a very long time to even right it!! There may be a short ramp to meet it but thereafter lookout!
The muppets never learn. I was expressing my disgust of the markets with a friend, trying to figure out where to park the little money I have. He said, "Stocks are for long term growth." I said define long term and pointed out what I've been saying here. We are in another bubble/bust cycle, bigger than 1995-2000. ZERO growth from the peak of the first bubble in 1999 through today when adjusted for inflation using BLS bullshit CPI. We know real inflation is much higher, so markets have actually lost value since the 1999 highs. Also, as another ZHer pointed out, the low performing equities are booted from the Dow. Granted, 16 years isn't considered long term, necessarily. But, I'm trying to point out the bubbles, busts, and negative growth. If the markets showed no real growth over 16 years, but followed the somewhat linear long term (decades) trend, I wouldn't be so bent. But markets are stupidly inflated.
A lifetime chart of the Dow looks insane. Almost linear growth over several decades with some booms and busts. Then a fucking moonshot in 1994 or 1995, the beginning of the first of three insane overvaluations.
Companies with billions in market cap, yet no profits (AMZN comes to mind). Not sustainable. The days of "stocks are for long term growth" are over. As are the days of "my home equity is an ATM."
My friend was right when he said, "It sounds like stocks aren't for you."
I'll add that it seems muppets don't see these bubbles for what they are. They think the highs are the norms. They don't know what to think during the bust cycles. They just say, "It will go back up, it always does." So far, they're right, in nominal terms. That shit is coming to an end.
There is the idea of "white holes" you know. Everything can get out, but nothing can get in, exact opposite of a black hole. Fun fact. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_hole
Forget all that stuff... Economy is not a science, it is religion.
What exactly is a religion, "Ecomomy"? Keynesian economics is a religion, I'll give you that.
It is religion in the sense that for every tough question the answer is "You gotta have faith"...
In Science there are laws, named as such because they always apply.
In economics there are also laws, but then there are excuses... if the price of every commodity that composes a car drops 50%, then the labour cost drops 30% because cheap labour providers devalue their currencies, and logistics prices drop 50% (Baltic Dry) you keep waiting for retail prices to drop to spur demand... just to get excuses!
Seriously guys... are your future at the mercy of an "invisible hand"?
If you have access to Matlab or Python, just take apply a FFT to the time series data. The output will be the complex frequency values. You will need to normalize of course.
I'll give you a hint - the spectrum is not white. Therefore the Gaussian assumptions are wrong. That of course implies that the assumptions behind the efficient market hypothesis is incorrect.
The fact that economists havn't done this simple analysis and published it should scream pretty loudly.
What is a Montly Drop?
Edit: Nevermind, the hot intern did a spell check after the initial post...go get'em tiger
Seems my low-amplitude short-term indicators were correct in keeping me out: RUT trading was rather flighty, turning back from both typical long/short targets alike. No trades means no money, but given someone apparently stole my Discover card # and had to cancel it, I won't be able to buy anything for a week anyway.
Think we are rolling over here KCS...I might be about to get a good shellacking but I won't be at all surprised to see a good gap down tomorrow. This action looks like patient selling into any strength, none of the usual sustained gap and go's we usually see in the RUT.
You've been a sage lately, playing the TNA option gods like a violin, but the one saving grace about my pure day-trade approach is that, even if my thesis is wrong and we don't touch the 20 ever again, I'll be ridin' the short train with you tomorrow if 9:35 technicals say so. Only worry: JOBS weeks have odd hedging 1-2 days prior that flatten things out, so I'm thinking it's either tomorrow, or we may have to wait a week for any IWM smack-down. Fascinating times, no doubt.
Hope you get a good setup soon. The beginning of the year was frustrating as hell for many of us bears...those of us still alive deserve a little payback...make that a lot of payback.
Yes, I finally got some real payback last week, and ona TZA ride for the moment.
Given a) today was statistically one of the most bullish days of the month; b) the huge rally in oil, and c) the main indices closed near cash session lows;
You could well be right on the money.
Montly = Ebonics for "monthly"
What's worse is that Intern Season is coming to a close. Just said goodbye to three good f*cks today.
Totally normal markets
With all the 70s parodies, seems I’ve been neglecting younger ZH-ers, and indie music, so here’s one from 2009:
“These Doves are Fucking Wrong!” from “This Love is Fucking Right!” by The Pains of Being Pure at Heart
This is sinister, just can’t find the words to say
Spread the dark myth that you’ll hike rates one fine day
We’re all doomed because your policy’s not right
Don’t QE more than thrice, it’s alright
To the dark side, yeah, you’ve coddled all the longs
I won’t whisper: These doves are fucking wrong!
You’ll need methadone, ‘cause the uptrend’s gone awry
No, you can’t stand even a 5 point drop in SPY
Jumped the shark, you just can’t get the timing right
Don’t diss biotech stocks twice, it’s alright
Unelected, you can do just what you like
I won’t whisper: These doves ain’t fucking right!
Trade accordingly seems to make a little more sense now because I never made money unless markets were going up and down. I'm too impatient and prefer day-trading. Bitcoin has been great for swings between 2 and 3 hundred this year. I'm going to put a little in Scottrade to play with for the fall in Fall just for the hell of it.
I'll play FAZ. It is pretty easy to judge.
FAZ - a triple bear fund -
trades between 11 and 14.80 or so at a recent high ???
Kindly, how does one make a fiat or two with FAZ ?? Doesn't seem to have a lot of potential, even for a erudite day trader such as yourself.
I dabbled in FAZ, and it's a great way to get blowtorched in a hurry.... never hold that POS overnight...
Wait, Freddy Fazbear is real?
Well shit. Now I gotta brush up on all of those Five Nights at Freddie's videos on the intertubes...
FAZ looks tarded...how about any of the VIX plays.
Don't forget that RBOB spiked 20% as well, over $.35 in three days. September RBOB was down to $1.22 and now is back over $1.60 for month end. All of the other gasoline futures spiked 20% as well. Oct, Nov, Dec.
SO LONG $1.99 GASOLINE!!!!!!
Never mind that $50 oil should mean $1.65 retail gas.
FUCK THE MONEY CHANGERS WITH A 12' RUSTY POLE!!!!!
Oh I forgot look at heating oil. One and a half months of decline undone in three days.
What is $1.99 gasoline? In the mid-$2 range here in Pittsburgh.
Wow. The serial anonymous downvoter strikes again!
Hey! Another yinzer on ZH! Pleased to make your acquaintence.
$1.98 this morning in Denton, TX. A little higher where I live, but was shocked to see it while driving.
the dow death cross happened, the sp500 death cross happened, the nyse death cross happened, now just waiting for the nasdaq death cross
Broken. Totally broken and just waiting for the collapse.
Surprised Young Tyler didn't mention VWAP today, 'twas fucking amazing.
Wrong !
You did not read the piece ... only Tyler could fat-finger relatively like that LMAO
"Stocks traded in a relatiovely narrow range glued to VWAP after the overnight plunge... "
I missed that . Should have known better than to assume Tyler wouldn't mention the Daytraders wet dream (VWAP). Thank you.
A lotta sheep are gonna get their faces ripped off soon. They'll find them lying in the Hurt Locker.
New CNBC/Bloomberg TV commercial you may not have seen:
{Two men in water fly-fishing, wearing coveralls/waders}
{1st Man} “Why are you so pissed off today?”
{2nd Man} “I had a miserably shitty week trading my Interactive Brokers account. Between dip-buyers and mean-reverters, we whipsawed like constipated dragonflies playing ping-pong. (notices 1st Man gritting his teeth) What? Are you an active trader too?”
{1st Man} “No, but I found a hapless advisor, put me in a couple of hedge funds that are doing HORRIBLE!”
{2nd Man } “How’d he select the hedge funds?”
{1st Man} “He looked for high fees, long lock-ups and firms where his alma mater buddies worked”
{Barracuda leaps from water and bites the 1st Man’s right hand}
{2nd Man} “Thank god you’re left-handed, you can still call your Morgan broker for advice.”
That's a keeper!
I trade with IB and find some of their commercials to be clever, but this one annoys me for some reason, like an unintentional parody ...
I've decided the guy in the commercial with the beard needs punched in the neck. That would make the ad better.
Fuck IB...a bunch of douchebags....
Commercials are lame....just like their back office...
Banks need to jack price of crude so to make loans to energy look less risky on balance sheet
yes .... and Saudis talking about talking was another nice desperation save move for the banksters.
And the dollar weakness didn't hurt either, although it probably wasn't as much of a factor as the Saudi jawboning. The House of Saud seems to have borrowed a page from Tim Cook and decided to paint the tape. All just in time for the October credit reassessment.
Futures point to higher import prices.
WTF. Silver spot is $14.615 and at APMEX a hundred ounce bar costs $1600 with a bankwire.
and many are out of stock
Apmex still has 100oz bars....$1580 late today, really not bad.
yes, you can buy paper for $14.60, but real silver costs $16-$17 an ounce. they are different products, one is real, the other is not.
Who changed the dice on the craps table!?!? And get those android card counters away from the one deck blackjack tables!
Holly crap! We're going to need another couple bus loads of retirees and young guys out for the bachelor party!
WTI went bananas (up/down) in 2007/2008 while stocks fell out of bed.
2015/2016 same shit new wrapping.
+ 145 down to 35 in a few weeks
EURUSD did the same back then as well...
the summer blow off top in 2015 is the same as it was in 2008
Lies, lies & more bullshit...the rats have no Planet#2 to jump to.
Here's John Oliver...
'Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: History Lies' https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACwenVzN2oU'
I like the throwing-up ones.
Trump is a merchantilist. I hear he got good marks at Wharton though. Sorta ironic he keeps punching the bretheren in China.
Nothing like a good ol'-fashion Wall Street "short squeeze" and the Fed determines the price we will pay as they are bought and paid for and also own interest in oil. Have you noticed the oil per bbl doesn't gel with the pump price. This will play well into the FED's inflation target as the oil price was determined to be a major factor in the FED not seeing their inflation target and also determined this was a one-off; this will help it it lasts and if it lasts it won't be based on supply or demand. They will blame it on middle-east unrest; after all Saudi's did invade Yemen with ground troops...murderes all of them...do not join any military...refuse to murder..
should've filled up yesterday
re: oil isn't end of month pricing what determines the value of reserves?
"I could ride that!" - Evel Knievel
http://www.cmt.com/sitewide/assets/img/shows/true_grit/evel_knievel/evel...
The South was right!
Raking in those chips. Smart money is in the market, yea sure you betcha.
For those of you who have had issue with reading the charts this is what it all means. We've fucked you hard before, we will fuck you again, and we will continue to fuck you whenever we want to. So fuck off and fuck you compliments of our crooked market.
Best comment evar.
Smells like there's a bottom around here somewhere.
Pet rock'n pet roll!