California - A Deluge Followed by Mega Drought?

Bruce Krasting's picture

 

Both NOAA and the Australian Meteorologists issued El Nino updates in the past 24 hours. The weekly numbers that were released confirm that an historic event is taking place. It now is (nearly) certain that the most significant El Nino in recorded history will be with us over the next five months. From the Aussie weather geeks:

The 2015 El Niño is now the strongest El Niño since 1997–98.

The last time we were close to the current El Nino conditions was the fall/winter of 1997/1998. National Geographic has this to say of the 1997 El Nino:

It rose out of the tropical Pacific in late 1997, bearing more energy than a million Hiroshima bombs. By the time it had run its course eight months later, the giant El Niño of 1997-98 had deranged weather patterns around the world, killed an estimated 2,100 people, and caused at least 33 billion [U.S.] dollars in property damage.

At its peak, the 1997 El Nino index reached a record high of 2.3. This extreme level was nearly reached over the past week, there is every indication that it will move higher in the coming months.

The 1997-98 results:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.35.29 AM

We just hit 2.2 on the weekly numbers. This number will climb over the coming months:

 

weeklysst

 

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.39.51 AM

What does a super El Nino mean for California? Record rains are coming soon! The historical results from the 1997 Nino event:

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.51.57 AM

Screen Shot 2015-09-01 at 7.52.13 AM

National Geographic sums up the consequences of a weather system that has the power of 1m nukes:

In the U.S. mudslides and flash floods flattened communities from California to Mississippi, storms pounded the Gulf Coast, and tornadoes ripped Florida.

The effects of the 1997 Nino were felt globally:

Forest fires burned furiously in Sumatra, Borneo, and Malaysia, forcing drivers to use their headlights at noon. The haze traveled thousands of miles to the west into the ordinarily sparkling air of the Maldive Islands, limiting visibility to half a mile [0.8 kilometer] at times.

Temperatures reached 108°F [42°C] in Mongolia; Kenya’s rainfall was 40 inches [100 centimeters] above normal; central Europe suffered record flooding that killed 55 in Poland and 60 in the Czech Republic; and Madagascar was battered with monsoons and cyclones.

Okay - It's going to rain in the Pacific West the next four months. If history is any guide, the rainfall will reach record levels. Extreme flooding is a probable outcome. As the rain/snow falls the epic drought that is now going on will abate. The rivers and reservoirs will refill by the end of February 2016. BUT THEN WHAT?

If history is any guide the extreme El Nino will be followed by a crash in ocean temperatures. By next summer it is increasing likely that the world will be facing La Nina conditions. The 1997 El Nino was followed by one of the longest periods of La Nina conditions in history.

noaaLT

Put this together and what do you get? It now very likely that extreme weather conditions will be with us through this winter. The West and the South will be inundated with rain. But a year from now we will be facing much different conditions. The La Nina that will be with us in 12 months will bring with it very dry conditions for California. This drought is likely to last for years.

 

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mijev's picture

I wonder how much of the ocean warming is attributable to fukushima. It should at least merit a mention.

Rhal's picture

Maybe. Radioactive particles don't heat up until they approach critical mass, almost no chance of that while diluted throughout the ocean. But if all the kelp forests are dying that may change carbon and oxygen levels. Definatly worth researching, and they probably are without telling us.

A bigger factor is that when the ocean warms it releases more CO2. Humans will get blamed for that even though it happens after temp increase. 

Same old...

Joke Heros's picture

I had just bought my house in 97 when El Nino hit southern CA. Put some leaks in the roof, all the plants that withered while the house was vacant sprung into nice green garden, that's about it. A lot of Californian's were discomforted at the rainy weather and slick roads, lots of whining and bitching. Thank gawd there was little to zero 'social networking' at the time ala Twitter or Facebook for whiny assholes to piss and moan about their broken windshield wipers or getting their hair wet.

It's probably going to be a non event (maybe some doofs getting caught in mudslick roads) and some fancy edge-of-the-cliff homes are going to get washed out (don't build a house on a dirt cliff or in a river run-off MORONS) but the bitching and moaning on the net and at the workplace is going to be incessant. God forbid a football game gets rained out. Going off the grid if/when El Nino arrives, the douchebags will be howling in the streets.

 

holmes's picture

Missed your articles. Bruce. Hope you start writing more frequently.

GMadScientist's picture

True dat, but in this particular case, Henry Rollins said it better:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X82bQ4FBPHA

EurGold's picture
EurGold (not verified) Sep 1, 2015 6:25 PM
geno-econ's picture

El Nino caused 33 Billion in losses------not to worry, that is less than one months QE.   How did Bruce get from  Croton Dam  in New York to  California?   No doubt followed that Lady in Red.  Keep on writing Bruce wherever tou are. >

wobblie's picture

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wobblie's picture

Bruce, you might want to avail yourself of something called knowledge. El Ninos have been suppressed by weather engineering for years. Please go to geoengineeringwatch.org and LEARN something. The California drought is completely MANUFACTURED through HAARP and pumping gigantic amounts of nanoparticulate metals into the atmosphere, by which it controls jetstreams and moisture, where it appears and where it does not. Now why would anyone want to do this? Think about it... land grabs a go go. Creation of chaos and disorder, etc. etc.

THE IGNORANCE ON THIS ISSUE OF CLIMATE ENGINEERING IS DEAFENING. It is happening every day above your heads.

Please watch Dane Wigigton's presentations on youtube and on geoengineeringwatch.org.

He is the great American hero you've never heard of.

 

Also, bet Bruce didn't know that NOAA reports are done by Raytheon:

The NOAA, a member of the Weather Modification Operations and Research Board, (partnered on that board with the American Meteorological Society and the National Science Foundation) sold its weather reporting functionality to Raytheon, who operates it now under the name Advanced Weather Information Processing System. Raytheon happens to contract many of its services and industrial airliners to the tune of global weather modification programs, such as those ever popular “global warming mitigation” or “global dimming” programs, (whereby jets utilizing liquid propane, liquid nitrogen, silver iodide, potassium chlorate, barium oxide, acrylamides, and trimethyl aluminum, spray these chemicals to replace cloud cover over entire countries) and, they’ve even managed to create, through their sub-company General Dynamics Robotics, Unmanned Autonomous Vehicles such as the Global Hawk that can fly for 72 hours, with a payload of 20,000lbs or more, running entirely on programming and artificial intelligence microwave signal networking, without landing or refueling. It’s not just local chemical “cloud seeding” or “storm prevention” anymore, as is still practiced by the state-and-regional program member companies of the Weather Modification Association.

 

(source: geoengineeringwatch.org)

Arthur's picture

Wow and what do they say about aliens controlling our weather?

Aussiekiwi's picture

Arthur, evidently even the weather is a conspiracy, never trusted rain, its got a slippery look about it, now I know why :)

StagStopa's picture

Comte: easy on the Trans hate, buddy.

 

CdRoxi

 

 

New_Meat's picture

Hey Bruce, glad to see you back.

Y'know, the National Weather Service's 72 hour prediction record for weather is equal to the Farmer's Almanac that gets published each year.

So, I'll go with "trend" predictions, but ... well ... not this far out.

- Ned

l.kimbot's picture

Great to see a post again, Bruce.  Welcome back!

ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

So are you saying that I should have built my off the grid cabin on higher ground?

q99x2's picture

El Nino's and draught always preceed mini-iceages like in the 1650s.

Professorlocknload's picture

Can't predict the markets, so why not take a stab at the weather.

flacorps's picture

Where's HAARP when we really need it?

Macon Richardson's picture

Forget all that climate stuff. With El Nino coming, should I be long anchovies or short anchovies.

Bay Area Guy's picture

Good to have you back Bruce.  Any updates on the Social Security system upcoming any time soon?

_SILENCER's picture

Being from Ventura County, I recall the 97/98 blowout very well. We got hammered in Ventura. Ojai got the shit kicked out of it. It was crazy insane, especially on the freeways as I drove into LA for work. Seriously nutzo.

I had friends who's parents were stranded in their homes from creeks turned into raging rivers. Homeless people were swept into the sea. Vehicles and houses were plunged downstream and shattered as they collided with concrete bridges. Sucked ass to drive in that shit.

It happens every few years. It's nothing new. I recall a giant deluge in 1969 when I was a small lad -  bridges were washed out, all of the farmland was underwatwer. Peirs destroyed. Big ass boats lying on the beach like dead whales. What a show.

Earth is a motherfucker.

Long on firewood.

 

 

lordbyroniv's picture

Bruce Krasting the crony capitalist statist !!  

Good to see u bro !!!

Teh Finn's picture
Teh Finn (not verified) Sep 1, 2015 1:33 PM
Flashback 1976: Climatologists Blamed California Drought On ‘Global Cooling’

Warming, cooling, doesn't matter comrade.  You will have lower living standards and we must liquidate many of you to preserve a pristine world for ourselves.

Random_Robert's picture

El Nino , La Nina... so what?  Back in my day, we would call it a "wet winter"

Mudslides are a natural component of the geological history of the US west coast -

 

Long umbrellas, trench coats, and transfer shovels.  Short bermuda shorts, rubber flip-flops, and sunblock.

 

There's your "can't lose"  California hedging strategy for today, Bitchez...

 

 

the grateful unemployed's picture

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rnk/Newsletter/Spring_2010/images/climate/el_nin...

 

Disaster outcome number one, LAS VEGAS, which sits in the cusp of the Colorado River watershed. notice the El Nino pattern goes south of this. First case, Colorado River level drops impairing electric production at Hoover Dam. No water no power. Second case, low levels in the river combined with a minor geologic event cause the river to either divert, or to temporarily stop flowing. Millions of refugees leave Vegas with nothing. California cannot and will not accept them, they are losing water as well. There is no way to mitigate the disaster, you can't just tell people to turn off their sprinklers. Even Phoenix has other sources of water, and power, population relocation can be mitigated, but not Vegas. Many many people head back to places like Detroit which is a disaster of another kind. It becomes the end of the American city.

Vuke's picture

Holy Mackeral !   You read all this from one little chart?

kumquatsunite's picture

Interesting stuff. Notice that, while there have been a number of correlations to 1997 El Nino, no one seems to be referencing the denuding of the natural habitat from the expanded population. So the big argument is how many people are in the United States, and how many of those people belong here, when tourist guides for California now recommend that knowing Spanish is a good idea....so much of the problem is simply that there is Unnatural population due to the oh-just-let-everyone-in and our country be danged. Remove the 60 MILLION foreigners, who have been let in with immigration in the last twenty years, and remove the 20 MILLION illegals (take back California!) and you solve a lot of problems. Can you say Donald Trump?

Random_Robert's picture

Yeah, but... Will the drinks still be free on the Casino floors?  and served by the young hotties with the push-up bras?

THAT  is the important question....

 

 

world_debt_slave's picture

don't forget the butterfly flapping its wings

lawyer4anarchists's picture

If you want a real eye opener, then go to the satelite link given by "hardcleareye"  and change the projection to "AE" which is the azimuthal equidistant view.  Watch order come out of chaos.  THAT is the flat earth map "projection",  I ask, WTF?  it makes more sense than the globe projection?  lol,  wow, now we are down the rabbit hole.  And I thought the law was bad for lies. http://www.thetruthaboutthelaw.com/its-time-to-tell-the-truth-the-14th-a...

lawyer4anarchists's picture

accidental double post

Dickweed Wang's picture

There is the potential for an even worse scenario than the predicted El Nino conditions.  It has been termed an "Ark Storm" or an "atmospheric river".  Conditions for California are predicted to be as follows:

The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding.

The entire summary of the Ark Storm can be found here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm

and a YouTube video of the Ark Storm scenario by the USGS can be found here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8P-N-HA9iS8

 

hardcleareye's picture

Well here is one to consider... lol

An event called an ARkSTORM... aka an "Atomspheric River"...  it has happened to Califonia in the past.. the last one in 1861... it is worth the read....

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/atmospheric-rivers-california-...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARkStorm

Dickweed Wang's picture

Looking at the time of your post it appears we were posting the same idea at the same time . . . two great minds on the same track!

NOTfromSanFrancisco's picture

 

 

I was reading them both at the same time... Does that count?...

hardcleareye's picture

Bruce, you need to do a little more homework on El Nino and rainfall for California...  there are many more variables at play here than SSTA at 3.4...

A few other variables for you to consider OTHER than just "El Nino"..  (by the way...this ain't your typical El Nino .. and some think that to call this El Nino is incorrect...) 

The SSTA in the rest of the Pacific...  (the thing called the "Blob"  the extent of this beast and the degree of the SSTA is a new variable).. 

The Ridiculous Resilient Ridge... 

Abnormal cold SST off the south coast of Greenland...

The measured slow down of the The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)(part of this current includes the gulf stream) and the associated "stacking up" of the waters on the Atlantic east coast.... (think.. SANDY...)

The changes that are happening in the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet Streams..

The decline in both the Arctic Sea Surface Ice Extent and the Volume...

http://polarportal.dk/en/havisen-i-arktis/nbsp/sea-ice-extent/

The changing of the location and strength of the "Bermuda High"... (thought to be due to the abnormal cold waters off of Greenland...)

And I could go on with more..... and I can provide you with links to peer reviewed papers and lectures on the above changes (or you can google them) but I will stop here.

Your data is "nice" however it is data is based on a STEADY STATE...  we are no longer in a steady state...

Below is a Link to a great site,

Ocean surface currents, ocean temp, sea surface abnormalities, winds at ground (sfc hPa) and jet steam (250 hPa).

When site comes up click on words "EARTH" and select the parameter you want to see... ( it is global and incorporates various models and real time satellite information)..  click on any spot on the earth (green circle will show up on globe) and it will give you the numerical parameters of the overlays you have selected...  warning it is addictive... and as the old saying goes a picture tells a thousand words... you can also advance the time parameter up to 4 days.. and see "forecast"...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_...

 

joe90's picture

Have a look at the wind direction/circulation patterns at different atmospheric levels.  They are remarkably different.  Go outside and check out the directions of the clouds and sure enough the differences can be seen easily.  Don't know if this applies very widely but it has here the last few times I checked.

WhackoWarner's picture

Thank you for that satellite link.

fowlerja's picture

Trouble in California comes in threes..drought, floods.. and what would the third disaster be..why a historic earthquake...damn..I knew I should not have a bought a home in San Francisco at this time..

Comte d'herblay's picture

4s and 5s, too.

4) would be gay, lesbian 'marriages a la hollyweird, attempting to go mainstream, 5) would be transgendered being praised.

 

 

wwxx's picture

It is interesting to me, the Global Warming, even tho most will scoff at the Global Warming, and consider it nothing more than the seasonal El Nino event, those ocean temperature increases are extreme already, and just as in 1997, it will be scoffed at again, 'it is just another El Nino', nothing to worry about.

 

I'm not worried, the leadership in the United States of Pet Owners, shall continue to keep their head, as far up their ass as it be possible.  Military exercises, and wars, and rumors of wars contributes megatons annually to the Global Warming, and today, just as 1997, I can still hear & see the military aircraft, blasting the stratosphere with 'the New Normal' of intentional thermal invasion.

 

wwxx

Teh Finn's picture
Teh Finn (not verified) wwxx Sep 1, 2015 1:31 PM

those ocean temperature increases are extreme already

 

 

The bottom line is that CO2 and other GHG simply cannot make any measurable difference to sea temperatures, given the massive heat capacity of the oceans. And there is certainly no known mechanics, whereby CO2 can just warm some parts of the ocean and not others.

If sea temperatures really have risen in the last century as claimed, there is only one force powerful enough, and that is the sun.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/the-truth-behin...

crazybob369's picture

Sorry Teh, you can't argue religion. The disciples cannot be converted with simple logic. Or facts.

madcows's picture

Well, the oak trees at our homestead have been raining acorns for the past two weeks.  I could fill a dozen 20 yard dump trucks with this year's acorn harvest.  Fucking unbelievable.  The last time it rained acorns like this, the winter was truly nasty.  damn snow banks didn't finish melting until May.

I call it El Acornholio.  and this winter will be a ball breaker.  you can bet on it.