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Not "Unequivocally Good" - Canada Enters Recession
It appears low oil prices are not awesome for everyone. For the second quarter in a row, Canadian GDP dropped (-0.5%) pushing America's northern neighbor back into recession. What is ironic is that this was better than the 1% drop that was expected and so CAD is strengthening.
and the kneejerk is a strengthening of CAD against the USD as the drop was less than expected...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Now we're talking
Wait until the US raises rates this fall, that's when you'll see the real showtime up north.......
TSX gave the sell signal back in July and that trend shows no sign of reversal at this point.
The USA will never enter into a recession because the business media has been told to shut up and only say there is growth everywhere. I suppose the poor media people will be arrested or passive aggresively demoted if they don't obey. I wonder if we are a closet china ?
It begins.
Time for a Brador's and a jelly.
This is Act II or III at this point.
On the radio in Toronto the media (under orders from their Ottawa masters) are calling it a "technical recession." What bullshit. You aren't "technically pregnant", you ARE pregnant. Canada is IN a recession. Period.
That's hilarious! I heard that on CBC radio in Edmonton yesterday. It's like a technical recession isn't , like, a REAL recession. Only if you want to get picky. Propaganda much?
Wonder how their sky high real estate prices will hold up.
U.S. short sellers betting on Canadian housing crash: ‘An accident waiting to happen’http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/u-s-short-sellers-betting-on-ca...
Am going to Quebec City in October with wife! Go King Dollar!
Don't touch Ashley, but you can leave your wife to Madison!
He was a good man; maybe Quebec has made him "frenchifried".
Can happen to the best when they see a good breast!
eh?
turn it around and its he!
don't think backwards!
Couldnt happen to a nicer group of dimwits
I find it fascinating how some of you yanks can be so arrogant.
We are not all arrogant, however we probably do a better job at fudging the numbers. These things start at the periphery and move inwards. We might not be next in the recession line (Mexico next?) but we are in the line.
Yeah the truth is racist and sexist, eh?
Gimme a fucking break. Theres some serious assholes in canada...just like there are in southern california where i live.
Shoot the messenger...if it makes you FEEL better.
RIPS
Someone needs to teach them how to apply double seasonal adjustments... to make the data look better.
GreatWhiteNorthFUBAR.
I'm sure they triple-seasonally adjusted the numbers. Time to lower those rates again. Should see some sort of QE in Canada in the not too distant future.
"I'm sure they triple-seasonally adjusted the numbers."
If so, they should have double-seasonally adjusted the result after the initial 3x adjustments.
C'mon, Canada. Learn to fudge your data more. No bad data allowed.
Time to start printing Loonies.
FUBAR.
Perfectly reasonable, if you through logic out the window!
Stronger CAD ain't going to help that export problem.
I had noted it (here) many years ago, an economic downturn in China would be the pin to prick the Canadian housing bubble.
CAD has been sliding down for over a year but hasn't helped. I live in Toronto and now there are discussions of going after the Summer olympics which, assuming we follow the U.S. into slow growth hell, mean we are totally fucked.
Psst! Check out what happened in Vancouver with the Winter Olympics!
I thinik that Canada has punched along longer than logic would dictate because of the influx of immigrants, rather, "bigger suckers." Selling a dream! I got a front-row seat at this showing; got [my wife] out of the theatre (cut early, but, better early than...).
[correction to my above post: "throw" not "through!"]
Actually I think it's trow, eh.
The Loonie has been sliding since 2011. You can't short Canadian banks (yet), but as a Canadian, I'm long the US dollar. Don't be surprised if the Bank of Canada CUTS rates while the FED raises in the next few weeks.
For God's sake get your facts right! It's a "technical" recession. Which is also known as....a recession.
I got quite a bit of CAD I was not willing to sell as it lost some value since May. Seems like it's time even at a loss. Still hoping FED does not lift rates, USD slump, higher oil price, higher CAD.
Hate to say it but you should be in dollars, not loonies at this point.......it's been showing a sell since the beginning of 2013 with no reversal signs as of yet. Oil will not be recovering as long as deflation is running rampant worldwide but gold has a chance to create a bit of an upswing if the bond market implodes quickly.
Well I had USD till may, made some money. I sold at 1.07 eur. It was not a bad decison (yet). CAD however seems to be.
If you home currency is in Euros, then 1.07 was a good trade for sure. Should peak again shortly then turn back down as money heads for US markets again.
Can't wait to see all the "Blame Harper for the recession" stuff that's about to litter my facebook news feed.
And there's going to be thousands voting for J Trudeau this Fall.
If he's anything like his father (the apple doesn't fall far from the tree) we are in for a real problem as the economy unwinds.
He's already on record as saying he'll discontinue TFSAs. That should make a lot of those low-income earners regret voting for him.
Let’s not forget Canada’s rather large gold mining industry- which is being obliterated as a result of bankster manipulation. The obituary for our junior gold exploration industry was written in 2013, and now mid and large cap producers are being driven into extinction. This is killing a great many good paying jobs in the primary gold mining industry, but the carnage doesn’t stop there. Companies that produce exploration, drilling and geotechnical equipment (many of them US based) are also in a vice. Mining is intensive, and requires continuous replacement and maintenance of very heavy equipment. Hence, the destruction of the gold miners is having a very adverse effect on companies such as caterpillar, and their supply chain companies. Banksterism is ruinous for everybody. The Karma in it all is that as the gold mining industry dies, so does future supply, and with it the banksters ability to suppress the gold price. The banksters are actually short sighted and stupid, and will be the authors of their own demise.
Greedy, you forgot greedy.
I'm smack dab in the middle of Canadian mining country, the good times are over, and some even before they began (ring of fire).
It's going to get REAL ugly. As Cat reduces productoin their per-unit costs will go up, and as that happens heir sales will only further go down... Anyone wanting to jump in and mine is going to be shelling out a LOT more in the future.
Economies of scale in reverse. Been calling this for years...
On the bright side, you'll be able to walk down to the repo/quickie-mart with a fiver and be able to buy a milky way and a 330 excavator, and actually get some change back.
Not really. There will be lots of cheap used equipment available.
There will also be deep discounts on new equipment as the manufacturers try to stimulate demand.
Sorry, but I don't have sympathy for any industry, mining or otherwise, that is up to its eyeballs in debt. They are part of the problem because they have let themselves become beholden to the Banksters. If you don't like the banksters, stay away from them, and be better off.
Where is David Rosenberg on the Canadian recession?
In Florida.
Here in Canada, Last time oil went down to $50 a barrel the price at the pump dropped from $1.35 / litre to .85 cents, this time oil hit $39 a barrel and the price at the pump didn't move, so no boost in consumer spending. The Canadians I talk to know there's problems in the financial system, but like cattle being lead to slaughter they've continued to spend like drunken sailors, they believe the government can and will save them. The vast majority of my fellow Canadians are Idiots.
Naw! They have their aces in the hole! Housing! EVERY one is figuring their goiing to sell to get out of this predicament!
Trapped! Roach Motel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ByNxbkkV4A
I sold mine in July. Friends and aquaintances feel sorry for me; think I "lost" my house. I put the cash in my pocket. I don't tell them the real story anymore; I tried a couple of times, they don't want to hear it. I hope the best for them all, but I wouldn't want to be in any of their shoes. This shit is going to be EPIC.
Three Words
FULL RECOURSE LOANS
RIPS
Beg to differ Steel, up here in NWO (thats north west ontario, not the NWOh) that very day it tanked we awoke the next morning to a 12 cent rape increase. No pun intended.
They don't even care to try to hide it, next step is trotting out some crisis actors to tell us how good we have it compared to that island prison across the pond and their $9/liter crap.
Starve the beast on one end, but don't forget to work it to death on the other. Only way to be sure!
"next step is trotting out some crisis actors to tell us how good we have it"
Done and done, don't you watch BNN. LOL
The vast majority of fellow Earthians are idiots.
I like Canada. Beautiful place. But watching those HGTV shows where people are paying $600 - 700K for houses in the big interior cities made me think, what are they doing that lets them afford the monthly note. I guess with two incomes and not having kids that monthly note isn't too bad. As long as you've got a decent job to keep up the payments...
Well here's something for the big mortgage crowd to ponder, for every 1% your mortgage goes up you have to pay $100 more / $100,000 / month. So if you have a $600,000 mortgage and interest rates go up 2% your monthly cost to service that debt just jumped $1200 / month. You better have lots of disposable income.
Quick jail a journalist. You can turn this thing around.
I'm not worried about oil/gold. I think both plays are there long term especially with any sniff of real geopolitical turmoil hitting the market.
What I'm worried about is housing. That bubble needs to pop and right soon (especially in Toronto and Vancouver).
Long overdue for overpriced shitbox real estate crash!
Pfff!!!
The teevee said it was only technical.
That doesn't really count then. Mall-time, CHARGE IT!
According to the chart in the article Kanada has been growing almost non-stop for the past 30 years. I have been in the labour force for that entire time (actaully longer than that) and the only growth I have witnessed is in housing (mostly for newly arriving wealthy immigrants) and the oil patch. All other industry has been in freefall. We have been in recession since at least 1980, and the only "growth" has been in the total accumulated debt at all levels of .gov and society. Debt is not growth - it looks like growth for awhile, as all that borrowed "money" builds cities and infratructure. But once all that non-productive building activity is concluded, those debts are still owed and only grow with compounded interest tacked on over time. Almost none of the debt accumulated over the past 40 years has been productive, and the chickens have been steadily coming home to roost over that same amount of time.
GDP is a bullshit method of calculating the health of an economy. Everyone equates all the shiny new buildings and expansive rows of mcmansions as "growth". It is not - it is debt. It is mountains of liabilities that no seems to think need to be repaid. Well, the banksters think it needs to be repaid, and when the debts are unserviceable, that is when we collectively become slaves to the banksters.
The general population is in for a very rude awakening in the not-too-distant future.
Yep, Canadian housing industry is 2x the 'GDP_%' of the States
Good thing our branch plant economy has wood and water to hewer, because everything else got sold off to the lowest bidders (including all our gold reserves @ $300/oz).
Absolutely spot on
Time for Canada's equivalent of NBER to move the recession goal posts...
Need 3, not 2, sequentially-negative annual GDP prints to classify as "recession."
Where's all the "this is so bullish" commentators now ?
Nah - More like Flegellants -
? said: ..."they wore white robes and marched across Germany in 33.5 day campaigns of penance, only stopping in any one place for no more than a day. 33 days referred for one day for each year of Jesus' earthly life. They established their camps in fields near towns and held their rituals twice a day. The ritual began with the reading of a letter, claimed to have been delivered by an angel and justifying the Flagellants' activities. Next the followers would fall to their knees and scourge themselves."
https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20091019182157AAD7se6
"...group known as the Doves grew to about 10,000 men, but they disbanded after they came into Rome and the citizens laughed at them."
http://churchhopping.com/stop-hitting-yourself-stop-hitting-yourself
long maple syrup and hockey pucks!!
A major goal of $40 a barrel oil was to remove, without firing a shot, governments who wouldn't play ball with our masters in New York and DC and walking off with their natural resources.
As a colour revolution in Russia is clearly not going to happen, for now our masters will settle for the scalp of Stephen Harper and buying Alberta oilsands for a fraction of fair value.
Most likely winner of the October election: Warren Buffett. After the election, with a central Canadian government (Liberal or NDP) loyal to Bay Street firmly installed in Ottawa, he won't have to hear another word about Keystone.
Clearly true dat. The u.s. is currently paying $22/bbl of Fort Mac crude. Good deal.
say what!
Toronto 'BlueJays' in 2015 World series: 'strange that even the Montreal Expo's are even coming back?'
Canada will be just fine.
Can can weather any coming crisis because now they have great diversity.
CANADA is in DEEP DEPRESSION worse than any Canadians care to realize, but not nearly half as bad as the United States of America. When the USA goes down for the count it will most assuredly fall like the World Trade Centers #1 & #2, plus building #7. The bigger they are the harder they fall, Mr. Geithner.
Mabbee haughty Canadians should start several hundreds of businesses like Ashlay Madison, peddle their beauties all over the world similar to Sunny Leone and expect a big jump in their economy.