September 2015: We Officially Enter The Danger Zone

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Is September 2015 going to be one of the most important months in modern American history?  When I issued my first ever “red alert” for the last six months of 2015 back in June, I was particularly concerned with the months of September through December, and not just for economic reasons.  All of the intel that I have received is absolutely screaming that big trouble is ahead.  So enjoy these last few days of relative peace and quiet.  I mean that sincerely.  In fact, that is exactly what I have been doing – over the past week I have not posted many articles because I was spending time with family, friends and preparing for the national call to prayer on September 18th and 19th.   But now as we enter the chaotic month of September 2015 I have a feeling that there is going to be plenty for me to write about.

At this time last month, I declared that we were entering “the pivotal month of August 2015“, and that is exactly what it turned out to be.  August was the worst month overall for stocks in three years, and it was the worst month of August for U.S. financial markets in 17 years.

Throughout history, there have only been 11 times when the S&P 500 has declined by more than five percent during the month of August.  When that has happened, the stock market has almost always fallen in September as well

September is the only month in which the S&P 500 fell more frequently than it rose. What’s more, in the 11 times that the S&P 500 fell by more than 5 percent in August, it declined in 80 percent of the subsequent Septembers, and fell an average of nearly 4 percent.

Last week, there was a rally after the initial crash.  I warned that this would happen in advance, and we have seen a similar pattern play out during almost every market collapse throughout history.  The following comes from John Hussman

As I noted early this year (see A Better Lesson than “This Time Is Different”), market crashes “have tended to unfold after the market has already lost 10-14% and the recovery from that low fails.” Prior pre-crash bounces have generally been in the 6-7% range, which is what we observed last week, so I certainly don’t see that bounce as having removed any of our concerns. We remain extremely alert to the prospect for much more extended market losses.

So how far could stocks eventually fall?

Hussman is projecting that we could ultimately see the market decline by more than 50 percent

We fully expect a 40-55% market loss over the completion of the present market cycle. Such a loss would only bring valuations to levels that have been historically run-of-the-mill.

One thing that could accelerate stock market losses this time around is the fact that people have been borrowing lots and lots of money to buy stocks.  That works when the stock market just keeps going up, but once the market turns the margin calls can lead to panic selling on a massive scale.  The following comes from a recent piece by Wolf Richter in which he describes some of the chaos that we have already been witnessing…

Energy stocks and bonds crashed, even those of some large companies like Chesapeake. Some have reached zero. All kinds of other stocks and bonds have gotten eviscerated over the past few months, even tech darlings like Twitter or biotech giant Biogen. Portfolios with a focus on the wrong momentum stocks took a very serious hit.

 

And margin calls went out. The Journal:

 

Some lenders, including Bank of America Corp., are issuing margin calls to clients after the global market drubbing of the past week, forcing investors to choose between either putting up more money or selling some of the securities underlying the loans.

 

Other banks too sent out margin calls, including U.S. Trust, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, according to the Journal. With margin calls mucking up the scenario, spooked investors are trying to lower their leverage before they’re forced to, and the boom in securities-based lending appears to be over. And the wealth units of the banks that gorged on these loans are likely to see their profits dented.

 

If that continues, a much crummier thing happens: margin balances reverse. And the last two times they did after a majestic record-breaking spike, the stock market crashed.

For some more technical reasons why another wave to the downside is coming, see an excellent article entitled “RED ALERT for 2nd CRASH DOWNWAVE…” by Clive P. Maund that you can find right here.

In addition to the chaos in the financial world, we are also witnessing a convergence of events during the month of September that is pretty much unprecedented.  I know that I have never seen anything quite like it in my lifetime.

Recently, I put together a list of 33 events that we know will happen next month, and you can find that list right here.  Instead of repeating the entire article, I just want to highlight a few items from the list…

September 13 – The last day of the Shemitah year.  During the last two Shemitah cycles, we witnessed record-breaking stock market crashes on the very last day of the Shemitah year (Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar).  For example, if you go back to September 17th, 2001 (which was Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar), we witnessed the greatest one day stock market crash in all of U.S. history up until that time.  The Dow plunged 684 points, and it was a record that held for exactly seven years until the end of the next Shemitah cycle.  On September 29th, 2008 (which was also Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar), the Dow plummeted 777 points, which still today remains the greatest one day stock market crash of all time in the United States.  Now we are in another Shemitah year.  It began in the fall of 2014, and it ends on September 13th, 2015.

September 15 – The 70th session of the UN General Assembly begins on this date.  It has been widely reported that France plans to introduce a resolution which will give formal UN Security Council recognition to a Palestinian state shortly after the new session begins.  Up until now, the U.S. has always been the one blocking such a resolution, but Barack Obama has already indicated that things may be different this time around.  It would be extremely difficult to overstate the significance of this.

September 25 to September 27 – The United Nations launches a brand new “universal agenda” for humanity known as “the 2030 Agenda“.

September 28 – This is the date for the last of the four blood moons that fall on Biblical festival dates during 2014 and 2015.  This blood moon will be a “supermoon” and it will be clearly visible from the city of Jerusalem.

If you don’t know what a “supermoon” is, the following is a pretty good summary of what we should expect to see

On the night of 27 to 28 September, the Moon is closest to us at 2.46am, only an hour before it’s full. As a result, this supermoon will appear 14 percent bigger in the sky than the Moon at its most distant and smallest, and it should be 30 percent brighter. The Moon will certainly look unusually big and brilliant around 2am. But at 2.07am you’ll see a small chunk being nibbled out of its brilliant disc by the Earth’s shadow. Sinking deeper and deeper into the darkness, the Moon is totally eclipsed by 3.11am. It remains completely in the shadow of the Earth until 4.23am, when the full Moon gradually begins to emerge.

There has been lots and lots of speculation about other events that could take place during the month of September, but as of right now I cannot prove that any of them will actually happen.

But that doesn’t mean that I’m not watching.

If it sounds ominous to you when I say that we are “entering the danger zone” during the month of September, that is good, because that is precisely the tone that I am attempting to convey.

When things start completely falling apart in this nation, millions upon millions of Americans will complain that nobody warned them in advance about what was coming.

Well, I am warning you right now.

Get ready.

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NoDebt's picture

I sympathize, but if that's ACTUALLY what goes down in September I'll give you 20 FRNs and publish a giant full page ad in the NYT that says "I'm a fucking idiot who should have listened to the conspiracy theories clearly written on the wall for all to see."

tmosley's picture

Well now I hope it happens just to see that.

TSA Thug's picture

OMG I'm going to miss all you Zero Hedgers when whatever happens, happens. But if it doesn't happen then disregard what I said about it happening.

bania's picture

Honestly, this could be the most important month in the history of our planet, and possibly even our solar system.

tdag's picture

I'm not holding my breath. 

froze25's picture

The worlds financial situation is very similar to what we had post WWI.  Not good.

knukles's picture

Methinks we all need to get a grip, folks.

cnmcdee's picture

Johnathan Cahns Book 'The Mystery of the Shemitah : Long Title' went back and look at the last 100 years of market crashes and correction - it never missed - not once - once a three month window was added on the end of it.

A $7.57 US investment in a kindle book may save your portfolio do read it http://www.amazon.com/Mystery-Shemitah-000-Year-Old-Secret-Americas/dp/1...

Oh regional Indian's picture

Shmeeeeeeeetha....eetz the Shmeeeeetah I tell you, 7 years, 7X7 years, La Grande du Sept, the JuJubully....give it up...imagine no possessions....

Doombayah anyone?

Lighten UP...

Fresh off the press, guitar like maybe ye ain't heard before... 

Dance me to the end of the beginning...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cvsqR27kxrU

 

TruthHammer's picture

its funny when people try to lay claim to events that have been unfolding for more than a decade, and write lil' blog posts screaming "ME", and "I" over and over again.

Anyone that hasnt been following this since before 2006, really wasnt paying attention to common sense, and basic economic principles....

buyingsterling's picture

I'd give you an up arrow if the author wasn't more specific than what you usually read here. And I'd wonder why the author is so stupid if he failed to mention recent accurate calls that could have made people a lot of money.

Gankfest's picture

Hopefully it collapses, so I can move on and stop hearing about it... -_-

mkkby's picture

Stopped reading at Snyder's name.  Always another angle to his end of world articles.  If I were a cynic I'd say he's exploiting all the low IQ religious folks, who have been falling for this stuff for centuries.

Sociopaths have no shame and enjoy exploiting others for their own benefit.  Save a few feet of rope for this asshole.

natty light's picture

Check out the book "Apocalypse Not."

WillyGroper's picture

Cahn is a Con.

Said the money just evaporated too.

Oh, not a transfer of wealth, eh?

McMolotov's picture

Just this morning I witnessed two cases of dogs and cats living together. The end is pretty fucking nigh.

pods's picture

And the Shemitah shall take the form of the Stay Puffed Marshmellow man.

pods

Poundsand's picture

Better the Stay Puffed Marshemellow man than my worst possible fear....

          A naked 150' version of Yellen.  Lost my lunch twice just typing about it.

25or6to4's picture

@ pods

I'll buy that for a dollar!

natty light's picture

Shemitah, schshemita.

Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Heck no knucks! I've got my bunker stocked, Ark built, cloning kit prepared and am ready for the mushroom clouds! Bring it...yeah!

(Maybe a tad too many dystopian reads for me)

Miffed;-)

Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

cloning kit? just make a match.com profile while ther's still time

TeamDepends's picture

Watch for 9/24-5, when the Pope (who has recently embraced marxism, hobosexuality, abortion, and "chrislam") addresses Congress and the UN. He is going to be pushing Agenda 21 on steroids, which basically means establishment of NWO (all hail Lucifer!) and the end of "capitalism". May you live in exciting times.http://www.wnd.com/2015/08/mega-agenda-21-resurrected-with-popes-help/

McMolotov's picture

I saw a hot homeless chick the other day, so I guess that makes me a hobosexual...

TeamDepends's picture

Did you offer her sustenance, shelter, employment? How hot was she?

Temporalist's picture

Follow the symbols if you escape the "internment camps":

Hobo symbols of the great depression

https://www.google.com/search?q=hobo+symbols+of+the+great+depression&tbm...

TeamDepends's picture

It has sparked some serious, thought-provoking debates in the past, such as what gifts are appropriate for important hobosexual anniversaries. It was unanimously agreed that cardboard was correct for the first anniversary. However, after that things got contentious.

joe6px's picture

Wait until dirty mike and the boys pull a "soup kitchen" in your prius.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYfwRtS9Rmc

Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

But I holding the Family Jewels until October 1st....

Goatboy's picture

Lets not skimp on honesty.. its most important "month" in the "history" of all space 100 light years away from Sun. Maybe even a thousand light years.. but I dont have that much honesty to spare.

Bananamerican's picture

"This blood moon will be a “supermoon” and it will be clearly visible from the city of Jerusalem"

I can see my old aunt alice's ass every morning when she gets up to brush her teeth...

STILL waiting for "the big one"...

Muddy1's picture

For elast couple of months people in CA, OR, and WA have experienced nightly blood moons, and daily the sky has been darkened.  It's a forest fire for crying out loud, Michael.

shovelhead's picture

Bigger than Y2K?

That's big.

Implied Violins's picture

OH MY GAWD WE ARE ALL GOING TO FUCKING *DIE*!!!!!!

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

(...just not at the same time, or on the same day - and that would be true even if we all died simultaneously)

tmosley's picture

Of note: for two consecutive market crashes to occur on two consecutive Schmitas the odds are about 1:6.5 million. For three consecutive crashes to occur on three consecutive Schmitas, the odds are about 1:16.7 billion.

It already reeeks of conspiracy. If it happens again, it is a confirmation.

froze25's picture

Maybe its just confirmation that God doesn't want perpetual debt slavery.  Only temporary debt servitude. 

cnmcdee's picture

Actually I think it matched to the DAY for four - all the way back to 1981 when their was some kind of bond carnage in Asia I cannot even remember exactly what it was, what are the odds of 4 sequential Shemitah finishes perfectly matching collapses? 

pods's picture

Probably about the same odds as having jew after jew as chair of the FED.

pods

Oh regional Indian's picture

Holy shit Pods, I completely missed the inverse correlation/causation potential for smeeeetah....no end to the intrigue...

chunga's picture

You know, this whole finance/wall street/moneychanging bullshit is nothing but a fraudulent gimmick.

These fucking experts can trade the same shit back and forth 1000X/second and probably pay no tax OR even get tax breaks. A muppet goes to sell his 401K? Guess what? They "try" their best to get to it in "around" 5 days. AND then the muppets get the shit taxed out of them (automatically withheld)

The world of finance needs to be burned down.

Victor von Doom's picture

IMHO they are staged events, put together by Rothchild & his bankster bros for ritualistic & prophetic/leadership reasons. It doesn't matter that is sounds like crackpot religio babble. His people believe it.

Remember - these bastards even manipulate the Tribe.

 

"My greatest flaw. I surround myself with idiots."

- Victor von Doom

Headbanger's picture

Massive epic biblical catastrophic immense crushing September !!