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Third Greek Bailout Suddenly In Jeopardy: Creditors Warn Cash May Be Delayed If Elections Don't Go As Desired

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when everyone was convinced that the main "risk off" event of the summer, namely the Greek bailout, was safely tucked away and that having abdicated its sovereignty to its creditors  and Germany in particular, who now hold the Greek banking system hostage courtesy of draconian capital controls, that Greece would continue to receive its monthly cash allotment just so it could repay creditors from its first two bailouts and would not make headlines for the foreseeable future , Market News just reported that suddenly even the Greek bailout is no longer on autopilot as a result of the upcoming elections in three weeks, whose outcome is anything but assured.

According to Market News, "Greece's international creditors may delay the first review of the country's bailout until November, multiple EU sources told MNI Tuesday, pushing talks on potential debt relief further down the road as Greece prepares for snap national elections on September 20."

And just in case it was not clear that Greek sovereignty is now entirely conditional on the Greek people voting precisely as the Troika requires, and for a continuation of the austerity terms delineated in the 3rd Greek bailout, MNI reports that "officials will also stress that any new government that emerges from this month's poll must meet the current bailout terms in order to release the E3 billion pending from the its first loan tranche and have already warned the interim government to continue with the implementation of prior actions set for September."

In other words more of the same: Greece pretending to reform, creditors pretending to inject funds into the Greek economy:

"Realistically speaking, the inspectors' return to Greece might be delayed and the first assessment could take place in November instead of October. In such an event I don't expect talks about another Greek debt relief to run simultaneously," a top Commission source said. "But the new Greek government will have to implement a new set of milestones before receiving the remaining E3 billion irrespective of who wins."

As a reminder, Greece and its creditors have yet to define the package of measures that will be attached as milestones and prior actions for the release of the E3 billion.

Furthermore, the biggest hurdle to any Greek formalized bailout, the IMF's participation, remains anything but resolved: "there is still ambiguity about the involvement of the International Monetary Fund and when it will choose to agree with Greece a third loan programme. But the EU schedule will run irrespective of that."

Another source said that the IMF's Poul Thomsen gave recently a background briefing to the Board of Directors of the Fund where "he expressed his scepticism and reservations about the effectiveness of the new bailout and whether the IMF should participate."

What is perplexing, is that none of this comes as a surprise to the Greek creditors: "EU leadership and Eurozone Finance Ministers knew as early as July that outgoing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras would call elections within September."

And here is where things get tricky: "we thought at the time that he (Tsipras) will win again and the everything will go as agreed," the source said, adding that "now there is background worry about the outcome and the formation of the new (Greek) government, even the possibility of double elections."

The reason for the worry is that unexpected to many, Syriza's lead, which as recently as a month ago was seen as insurmountable, has dwindled to almost nothing. As Reuters reported over the weekend, "the gap between Syriza and the conservative New Democracy party has shrunk to 1.5 percentage points, according to a survey by pollster Alco for Sunday's proto Thema newspaper.The poll gave Syriza 22.6 percent against 21.1 percent for New Democracy, with 79 percent of respondents saying Tsipras had disappointed their expectations and 66 percent believing he was wrong to call early elections."

But the biggest wildcard may be the Greek youth. Overnight, Bloomberg reported that none other than "Syriza Youth Wing" has withdrawn its support for Tsipras: "We won’t support Syriza in forthcoming elections, nor participate in its election ticket,” majority of Syriza party’s youth wing leadership says in statement posted on its official website.  Instead, the group's members say will continue fight against bailouts outside Syriza party, citing Alexis Tsipras’s decision to support an austerity-attached agreement with creditors as reason for their departure.

So the question suddenly becomes: if another party does what Syriza did in late 2014 when it promised to end austerity (with results that were very well known), will they win? And who could it be: will it be Varoufakis new "Pan-European anti-austerity" party? Or will Golden Dawn be given the mandate this time? The answer: probably neither, because courtesy of the Greek capital controls, the local population is still beholden to its European overlords courtesy of the ongoing indefinite lockdown on some €120 billion in Greek deposits.

One thing is certain: Greece will be making market-moving headlines once again, months if not years earlier than most had expected.

 

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Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:17 | 6495196 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Fuck Greece.  If they want the Euro so badly, gargle on Frau Merkel's balls. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:20 | 6495210 Hitlery_4_Dictator
Hitlery_4_Dictator's picture

Yea but the greece situation was fixed, so this makes no sense. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:22 | 6495225 Publicus
Publicus's picture

Greece must be destroyed before the Greeks will wake up.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:29 | 6495268 pods
pods's picture

They merely want to fuck the new crop of politicians like they did the old crop.

pods

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:31 | 6495283 Manthong
Manthong's picture

What gets me is that all this crap is about electrons from nowhere that were shaped into obligations to selfish and greedy psychotics and everybody is going along with the racket.

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:35 | 6495300 knukles
knukles's picture

All elections, fixed, all the time.
Enjoy freedom, serfs!

This is truly 100% New World Order dystopian totalitarian control taking place.  It's just one step removed from rounding up the dissidents for the camps.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:46 | 6495351 Pliskin
Pliskin's picture

I heard the NWO make up their 'Red list' from people who read ZH...

See you in camp Knuks.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:28 | 6495941 caconhma
caconhma's picture

There is that a simple problem with all these army and internal security forces, i.e., in a time of social upheavals all these people are quick to run for cover and change sides. 

As of now, all these Greek parasites are looking for a better master (better pay and benefits with less work).

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:33 | 6495294 PacOps
Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:48 | 6496330 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

My god, I've heard it a bunch, and it is still laugh out loud funny, even when you know the lines.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:56 | 6495411 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

' Elections ' ?

They're concerned about that ?

It was pretty convincingly illustrated that 'elections' don't matter one damned bit. - Why do the people of the world not see through their brainwashing ?

Meanwhile, back in the USA Inc, people blather on about Trump, Hillary, and other 'election' diversion crap too. America was given a republic; 'democracy' is Not that. ( No, they didnt teach us that in the government 'schools' ).

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:03 | 6495464 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

My question as well.  Why do people feel any connection to these governments at all?  And specifically in the case of Greece, why are so many so hell-bent on staying with the euro currency, when it is the instrument of their degradation?  What are people expecting?  They expect to follow the same procedure they've followed for decades and get a different result?  WTF?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 21:14 | 6498079 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Senator Palpatine:  Bad for Naboo, bad for the Republic!"

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:08 | 6495499 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

DECIDE: EU & EURO OR SOVEREIGNITY & DRACHMA.

TAKE CONTROL OF YOUR ECONOMY, YOUR ASSETS, YOUR CULTURE, YOUR HERITAGE, YOUR BORDERS OR CONCEDE PEONAGE & FOREIGN OWNERSHIP & ADMINISTRATION.

 

 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:33 | 6495644 goldsaver
goldsaver's picture

All the quadriga is asking for is soil and water, just that, soil and water....

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:31 | 6495272 Luc X. Ifer
Luc X. Ifer's picture

this is hilarius - blunt on face intervention on sovereignity and freedom of thougt and think rights :), the people are told under the treat of pain how to vote,

unbelievable, then why to have anymore elections, just say bye bye to democracy and burry it at the place of its birth. 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:23 | 6495231 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

No bailout means a default and much gnashing of teeth at the ECB. Be careful what you ask for......

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:18 | 6495527 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

' default ' and 'debt' are illusions

Big criminal banks who are broke (derivatives) used their minions in govt/core-pirate fascism to bail them out on the backs of the people. Same banksters used their counterfeit fiat 'money' to claim ('buy') real world assets that they did nothing to create. Now will the dumb citizenry allow themselves to be impoverished and enslaved ? Will people continue to look for 'saviors' (in government, organized big money religions, etc, etc ) or actually begin to think for themselves ?

Will the people allow the liar psychopaths to lay the blame on 'capitalism' rather than on their criminality ? That's a clever way to bring about a Big Monopoly of 'communism' or 'fascism' for them. ( At street level, the 'isms' are nothing but p.r. lies made up by whore intellectuals to facilitate the robbery of those in charge.) - - Real free market economics is allowing people to make their own decisions regarding their choices on labor and material goods. It is based on voluntary free exchange, as long as one does not interfere with the natural rights of others. - - We sure as hell havent had a true free market economic system for a very long time.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:16 | 6495542 FreeMoney
FreeMoney's picture

It doesn't look like lenders are lining up for a chance to finance Greece.  The Greek people will have to walk away from the Euro, suffer the banking system colapse, and balance their budget to avoid getting fucked by the banksters in the future.  

Or continue their debt slavery and watch their national treasures get auctioned off.

That is a lot of pain either way.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:24 | 6495233 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Ever notice that Merkel, Yellen, Caitlyn and LeGarde have never been in the same room together?  Think about it...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495247 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'd rather not!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:26 | 6495252 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Fair enough

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 16:01 | 6496746 spieslikeus
spieslikeus's picture

That you know of......

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:28 | 6495262 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

No threat here . .

vote as we say or we take your money . . . again

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:38 | 6495684 Scooby Doo
Scooby Doo's picture

Elections will be meaningless. A waste of time. The new president of whatever party replaces Syriza will not have any better luck against the troika. The Greeks will vote for whomever tells them that they can fix everything. And nothing will be fixed. And the Greeks will go through the whole drama again. It's kind of sad that the Greek people seem to believe that voting for somebody else is going to make all of this go away.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:43 | 6495707 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Frau Merkel's balls

 Frau Merkel's balls

 

yuck, why does that make me think of Cait Jenner?

<unvisualize that>

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:20 | 6495213 cookies anyone
cookies anyone's picture

What is this "Greece" that you are talking about?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495244 Carpenter1
Carpenter1's picture

The summer Greece theatre is over, now comes the real deal.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:24 | 6495227 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

So let me get this straight.  They want the people who will be elected in a few months, whoever they are, to guarantee NOW that they'll uphold the terms of the bailout when they get in office?

How exactly would that work?

Ah, well.  Can gets kicked again to November, I guess.  

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:24 | 6495237 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Magic ND, and lots of LSD.....

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:37 | 6495303 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

We all picked the wrong decade to stop sniffing glue.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:44 | 6495337 franzpick
franzpick's picture

When Truman upset the favored Dewey in the 1948 presidential election, the community-organized-Chicago mob was asked how they would fare having bet on the losing candidate Dewey, to which they replied that they had covered both sides of the presidential bet.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:47 | 6495359 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, if you've only got two sides to choose from.  In Greece they have like a thousand political parties.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:10 | 6495514 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

"So let me get this straight.  They want the people who will be elected in a few months, whoever they are, to guarantee NOW that they'll uphold the terms of the bailout when they get in office?

How exactly would that work? "

 

Same way as 'Pledge to support the eventual chosen Republican Nominee.'?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:24 | 6495235 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Greek slaves can't issue arrest warrants for Blankfein and Dimon.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495238 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Cash may be delayed if elections don't go as desired?  When will the Greek people finally say FUCK YOU to the banks and execute the corrupt politicians?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:47 | 6495363 skeelos
skeelos's picture

They're no different than the masses anywhere else in the world.  For the most part, they only care about their own individual comfort, and they don't care about corruption or rights or anything as long as they get their "fair share."  It will only change when enough of them are hungry enough to realize they have more to gain than to lose.  When that happens, there will be blood in the streets.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:06 | 6495823 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Totally agree.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495245 Debugas
Debugas's picture

elections should be a farce, meant to lullaby the masses

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:25 | 6495246 wmbz
wmbz's picture

Greece... The really shitty gift that keeps right on giving!

"Creditors Warn Cash May Be Delayed If Elections Don't Go As Desired"

~ Oh they will go as "desired" Banksters Inc. will see to that!

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:27 | 6495257 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

No extortion here folks nope none at all...fucking cunts.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:31 | 6495280 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

What is the point of another election when the overwhelming vote of the Greek referendum was ignored?

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:34 | 6495649 Element
Element's picture

And why don't the Greeks just migrate to Germany as economic refugees?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:20 | 6495890 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

And by that reasoning, why don't we send ALL our homeless to Mexico under the same banner.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:28 | 6495943 Element
Element's picture

No reason I can think of.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 21:19 | 6498092 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, year-round warm weather and cheap, rotgut taquila...what's not to like?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:39 | 6495310 DontFollowMyAdv...
DontFollowMyAdviceImaDummy's picture

pretty sure they're going to need a bailout EVERY MONTH FOREVER so yawn... wake me up when they actually officially are recognized as in default and not that other BS they made up so i can finally watch the big CDS meltdown.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:28 | 6496234 ah-ooog-ah
ah-ooog-ah's picture

CDS will never payout.  Didn't you read the small print... Appendix III section B subclause 32 "...and if all the other payment trigger conditions are met,  we reserve the right to add new ones..."

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:40 | 6495319 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Who will bailing out who when the show in Europe, Asia and the US opens with a choir of fat ladies singing?

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:17 | 6495878 Baa baa
Baa baa's picture

It sure won't be the guys gobbling up new real estate.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:41 | 6495321 GCT
GCT's picture

We often see the Greek charade and the USA is no different these days.  Promise the people free handouts and they vote for you.  The free shit army along with the free shit banks and corporations, Unions control our elections now.

Voting is a joke.  The USA is more covert about it is all.  The EMU and EU is now a joke  and their populations could care less about democracy.  It is all about freebies around the world and if you do not do as your masters tell you we will simply pull all your FRN's.

What a joke of a world we live in. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 11:46 | 6495338 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Mr Panos has a twitter account (but has not made a video in some time):

https://twitter.com/MRPANOS

 

"Germany we was never into you, we was only with you for the money." -Mr Panos

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:01 | 6495448 JimmyRainbow
JimmyRainbow's picture

the more election the more democracy one has old yabba said

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:03 | 6495463 youngman
youngman's picture

I wonder if all those new illegals pouring into Greece can vote....they all want free stuff too.....and a new raft...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:01 | 6496103 tsuki
tsuki's picture

For the last few months, they have been loading them on trains through Macedonia on to Bavaria. 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:03 | 6495471 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

Sounds like a good plan to me... "we had to destroy the country before we could save it".

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:18 | 6495552 Phoenix901210
Phoenix901210's picture

I wouldn't personally bet on the cowardliness of the Greek people. I think they will say 'FUCK YOU' to the creditors and vote for something anti austerity. Even if it risks being a pyrrhic victory.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:24 | 6495596 The Persistent ...
The Persistent Vegetable's picture

guess its true what they say about Greeks loving to take it in the ass!

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 12:29 | 6495619 Element
Element's picture

ah ... wouldn't it be revenge served-cold ... EU pulls the plug on them just when they thought they were home and hosed ...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:19 | 6495887 Vin
Vin's picture

I thought that blackmail was illegal.  Oh wait, not for policital and banking criminals, I forgot.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 19:12 | 6497627 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

Hey! the first rule of Eurogroup is "don't talk about Eurogroup"

we don't take minutes, and we don't exist in law.

We can still fuck yuze up, real bad.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:38 | 6495995 flacorps
flacorps's picture

The problem as I see it is Greeks vote against the Troika, then the Troika tightens the screws and whoever is in a leadership position reacts to pending disaster by accepting an even less favorable deal than whatever was just rejected. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Also known as having a pact with the devil.

Greece can't break loose of this, at least not alone. A concerted revolt among the PIIGS could do it, but I question whether the Eurocrats wouldn't just pry one of the PIIGS at a time away from the coalition with various blandishments, promises and payments; only to have the whole bunch back in their thrall within a few months or years.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:46 | 6496046 Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

It will really get serious after the fourth time.

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 13:57 | 6496080 dogster
Tue, 09/01/2015 - 14:43 | 6496290 anonnn
anonnn's picture

Here is Varoufakis' straight talk video [end of August] on the Troika and his direct knowledge of Schauble's mandate-less position demanding Grexit; note that Merkel's position was confirmed by Schauble.

Varoufakis on Schauble--extract from Stephan Lamby's SWR-ADR documentary. It's a hoot !

http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/08/31/varoufakis-on-schauble-extract-from-stephan-lambys-swr-adr-documentary/

 

 

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 17:46 | 6497299 yellowsub
yellowsub's picture

Don't they want democracy?!  Vote bitchez...

Tue, 09/01/2015 - 19:09 | 6497619 fiddy pence haf...
fiddy pence haff pound's picture

alright, you Grecians. Greekists. Greasers.

You've just got your marching orders.

if you want to be free, then fuck the elections up.

no Tsipras. No ND. No Pissok.

vote Communist or Golden Dawn (don't ask)

That is all. lesson over

Wed, 09/02/2015 - 11:42 | 6499743 'argar the 'orrible
&#039;argar the &#039;orrible's picture

So., the bullying and blackmail continue, the people are right royally shafted as usual, so why am I not surprised ? Maybe the votors should give in, turn over, and wriggle their legs in the air and pretend they are dying, I have no sympathay for them,  Syriza and Psipras are the cause of this debacle, which just goes to show that whatever the colour of government  they all turn out the same, spineless psycophantic turds of the first order. The only one to show some backbone and sense is/was Varifakous, (apologies if I spelled your name wrong)

However what is to come will be a surprise to all political brands, as by 2020, there is to be a 'reset' in the concept of government. To my American cousins 'have a nice day'.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!